Australian Broker Call

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February 07, 2020

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
COL - COLES GROUP Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform Credit Suisse
Downgrade to Reduce from Hold Morgans
MGR - MIRVAC Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight Morgan Stanley
AQZ  ALLIANCE AVIATION SERVICES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $2.62

Ord Minnett rates AQZ as Hold (3) -

First half results looked strong albeit in line with expectations. The analysts comment higher capital expenditure in the first half was a matter of timing. The company has highlighted a significant drop in cash outflow is expected over the next six months.

Ord Minnett expects the ACCC review into the Qantas ((QAN)) stake will conclude in coming months. Hold rating and $2.60 target maintained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If AQZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.30 cents and EPS of 19.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.65.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 17.50 cents and EPS of 21.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.96.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASB  AUSTAL LIMITED

Commercial Services & Supplies

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Overnight Price: $4.16

Macquarie rates ASB as Outperform (1) -

Austal's inclusion in the US Navy's Umanned Surface Vessel program is a major win for the company, the broker suggests, ensuring Austal remains a relevant shipbuilder for the US Navy as it pivots towards unmanned vessels.

Austal is in a prime position, the broker believes, to win the shipbuilding component of the LUSV (large) contract expected this year. Outperform and $4.75 target retained.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $4.16 Difference: $0.59
If ASB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.42, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 21.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of 17.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 23.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.2, implying annual growth of 2.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASX  ASX LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $85.33

Ord Minnett rates ASX as Hold (3) -

Ahead of the first half results on February 13, Ord Minnett increases its profit forecast to $495.3m. The company has previously flagged it has a strong pipeline of new listings in the first half after a soft prior half.

Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating and raises the target to $82 from $79.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $82.00 Current Price is $85.33 Difference: minus $3.33 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $73.13, suggesting downside of -14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 230.00 cents and EPS of 256.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 259.8, implying annual growth of 2.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 233.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 240.00 cents and EPS of 266.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 269.6, implying annual growth of 3.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 243.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BXB  BRAMBLES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $12.70

Macquarie rates BXB as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of Brambles' earnings result release, the broker has lifted its target to $12.30 from $11.65. The stock has had a solid run post its quarterly trading update, and at 22x forward earnings the broker sees it as fully priced.

The broker retains Neutral while suggesting Brambles is "a good place to hide" defensive exposure to developed market and consumable products, and little exposure to Asia and thus the virus.

Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $12.70 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If BXB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.18, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 53.03 cents and EPS of 48.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 28.90 cents and EPS of 57.94 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.9, implying annual growth of 14.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COL  COLES GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $16.90

Citi rates COL as Neutral (3) -

First half headline earnings guidance is driven by one-off items, as Citi assesses underlying earnings growth in the combined food and liquor business increased by just 0.8%.

While growth remains subdued, this is still better than the broker expected. Citi believes the stock is fully priced and retains a Neutral rating. Target is raised to $16.90 from $16.60.

Citi expects liquor earnings will fall by -10% in the first half, because of elevated clearance and promotional activity.

Target price is $16.90 Current Price is $16.90 Difference: $0
If COL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.06, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 69.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.8, implying annual growth of -17.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 72.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.4, implying annual growth of 5.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates COL as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Credit Suisse remains constructive about the company's strategies to date. The second quarter sales growth accelerated to 3.6% and beat expectations.

The broker also believes the ability of Coles to catch up to Woolworths ((WOW)) in terms of performance is not difficult.

Rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform. Target is raised to $16.00 from $13.17.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $16.90 Difference: minus $0.9 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.06, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 60.39 cents and EPS of 71.05 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.8, implying annual growth of -17.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 64.90 cents and EPS of 76.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.4, implying annual growth of 5.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates COL as Neutral (3) -

The market wasn't anticipating an update from Coles ahead of its result release, and "profit warnings" are rarely positive. December quarter supermarket sales growth of 3.6%  is a significant improvement on 0.1% in September, the broker notes. Various one-offs have boosted earnings as well.

Given the one-offs, the broker has not materially adjusted earnings forecasts. While sales growth is impressive, the broker expects Woolworths ((WOW)) to deliver superior revenues, hence an Outperform rating. Neutral retained for Coles. Target rises to $17.20 from $17.10.

Target price is $17.20 Current Price is $16.90 Difference: $0.3
If COL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.06, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 46.20 cents and EPS of 66.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.8, implying annual growth of -17.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 48.30 cents and EPS of 69.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.4, implying annual growth of 5.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates COL as Underweight (5) -

First half headline guidance for earnings (EBIT) of $710-730m is ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimates. Commentary suggests a stronger food result was partially offset by weaker liquor profitability.

Adjusting for non-operating benefits, guidance is just 1% ahead of the broker's former estimates. Underweight rating. Target is raised to $14.50 from $13.50. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $16.90 Difference: minus $2.4 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.06, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 63.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.8, implying annual growth of -17.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 68.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.4, implying annual growth of 5.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates COL as Downgrade to Reduce from Hold (5) -

The first half sales update was better than Morgans expected, as all divisions delivered solid growth. The company has advised first half earnings are likely to be between $710-730m.

While at the headline level the update appears well and good, adjusting for favourable movements in non-operating earnings means a weaker outcome than the broker anticipated.

Finding it hard to justify the stretched valuation, Morgans downgrades to Reduce from Hold. The company will report its first half result on February 18. Target is raised to $14.29 from $14.01.

Target price is $14.29 Current Price is $16.90 Difference: minus $2.61 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.06, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 67.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.8, implying annual growth of -17.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 70.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.4, implying annual growth of 5.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates COL as Lighten (4) -

First half earnings (EBIT) guidance of $710-730m includes low-quality items such as a $15m provision release and $33m in property sales. Ord Minnett calculates underlying first half earnings, based on guidance, of $662-682m.

Meanwhile, like-for-like sales in food grew 3.6% in the second quarter, ahead of forecasts. Order Minnett maintains a Lighten rating and raises the target to $13.00 from $12.50.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $16.90 Difference: minus $3.9 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.06, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 64.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.8, implying annual growth of -17.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 65.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.4, implying annual growth of 5.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates COL as Sell (5) -

December quarter supermarket like-for-like sales growth was 3.6% and ahead of expectations. The company has guided to earnings (EBIT) in the first half of $710-730m.

The guidance is substantially ahead of UBS estimates but includes one-off benefits which, if adjusted, means guidance is only slightly ahead.

The broker believes a pick up in December trading drove the beat in like-for-like sales and is less convinced about profitability.

UBS retains a Sell rating with a view that increased re-investment creates a risk to consensus forecasts. Target is raised to $13.50 from $13.00.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $16.90 Difference: minus $3.4 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.06, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 67.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.8, implying annual growth of -17.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 72.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.4, implying annual growth of 5.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DXS  DEXUS PROPERTY GROUP

REITs

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Overnight Price: $12.98

Citi rates DXS as Buy (1) -

First half results were in line with Citi's estimates. FY20 guidance has been upgraded to growth of 4%. Citi continues to envisage upside from strong office conditions.

Trading profits have now been secured for FY20 and FY21 and visibility is increasing for FY22. The broker retains a Buy rating and $14.47 target.

Target price is $14.47 Current Price is $12.98 Difference: $1.49
If DXS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.58, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 70.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.5, implying annual growth of -46.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 55.90 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.3, implying annual growth of 4.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates DXS as Outperform (1) -

First half results were in line with expectations. Credit Suisse believes the company's strong capital position and development pipeline worth $11.2bn means it can drive earnings growth.

Dexus should also be able to leverage continued global demand for good-quality real estate. The broker retains an Outperform rating. Target is raised to $13.32 from $12.32.

Target price is $13.32 Current Price is $12.98 Difference: $0.34
If DXS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.58, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 69.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.5, implying annual growth of -46.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 72.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.3, implying annual growth of 4.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates DXS as Outperform (1) -

Dexus Property's result was in line with forecasts. Full year earnings guidance has been raised by 1% and dividend guidance by 0.5%, although the broker sees greater upside potential for dividends.

The broker believes valuations for office and industrial assets have further to run, particularly given delays in the Sydney office pipeline. Target rises to $13.62 from $13.26, Outperform retained.

Target price is $13.62 Current Price is $12.98 Difference: $0.64
If DXS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.58, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 53.10 cents and EPS of 56.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.5, implying annual growth of -46.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 55.30 cents and EPS of 58.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.3, implying annual growth of 4.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates DXS as Equal-weight (3) -

First half results were ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimates largely because of higher trading profits. Distribution growth guidance for FY20 has been increased to 5.0-5.5%, supported by free funds growth of 4%.

The upgrade appears to the broker to be predominantly driven by lower interest rates. Equal-weight rating maintained. In-Line sector view. Price target is raised to $12.45 from $12.00.

Target price is $12.45 Current Price is $12.98 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If DXS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.58, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 52.90 cents and EPS of 69.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.5, implying annual growth of -46.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 54.80 cents and EPS of 72.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.3, implying annual growth of 4.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates DXS as Accumulate (2) -

First half results were ahead of forecasts, supported by a positive industry backdrop amid demand for Australian office assets.

While operating conditions have slowed this is not yet enough to bring the defensive nature of the stock into question, Ord Minnett suggests.

The broker maintains an Accumulate rating and raises the target to $14.00 from $13.50.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $12.98 Difference: $1.02
If DXS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.58, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.5, implying annual growth of -46.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 66.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.3, implying annual growth of 4.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates DXS as Buy (1) -

The company has marginally upgraded guidance at the first half result, which was broadly in line with expectations.

Distribution growth for FY20 is increased to 5.5%, reflecting increased certainty on property income together with improved funds management earnings, UBS notes.

The broker expects strong cash flow and positive leasing spreads along with lower debt costs will deliver superior returns and retains a Buy rating and $13.60 target.

Target price is $13.60 Current Price is $12.98 Difference: $0.62
If DXS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.58, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 53.10 cents and EPS of 69.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.5, implying annual growth of -46.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 55.80 cents and EPS of 73.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.3, implying annual growth of 4.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FSF  FONTERRA SHAREHOLDERS' FUND

Dairy

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Overnight Price: $3.73

UBS rates FSF as Neutral (3) -

While current dairy sector trends, particularly higher margins on non-powder ingredients, point to higher earnings in FY20, UBS believes the pace of recovery for Fonterra post FY21 will be slower as it battles margin pressure.

The coronavirus outbreak is considered likely to result in short-term disruption to Chinese demand and limit any commodity price increases. Neutral rating maintained. Target is raised to NZ$3.95 from NZ$3.50.

Current Price is $3.73. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.83 cents and EPS of 22.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 15.09 cents and EPS of 27.43 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.7, implying annual growth of 27.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IFL  IOOF HOLDINGS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $7.12

UBS rates IFL as Sell (5) -

Compared with major wealth management peers, IOOF's platform net fund flows have been relatively resistant. Yet the Pursuit platform fees appear increasingly elevated and UBS struggles to reconcile these diverging factors.

The broker assesses platform fee pressure is likely to persist and net flow challenges will rise with the inclusion of ANZ P&I. Hence, the broker retains a Sell rating to reflect ongoing revenue growth headwinds. Target is $6.80.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $7.12 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If IFL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.78, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.6, implying annual growth of 463.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 59.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.3, implying annual growth of 34.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGR  MIRVAC GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $3.38

Citi rates MGR as Buy (1) -

Citi is willing to look through the miss to estimates in the first half on residential volumes and margins, believing the company is well placed.

Residential volume uplift is a timing issue and gross margins could expand in FY21. Mirvac has retained guidance for FY20.

Citi maintains a Buy rating and raises the target to $3.74 from $3.60.

Target price is $3.74 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: $0.36
If MGR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.20 cents and EPS of 17.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of -36.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.90 cents and EPS of 17.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of -4.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates MGR as Neutral (3) -

First half results were in line with expectations. The main growth driver in the future is the commercial development pipeline, in Credit Suisse's view.

This includes $3.1bn in office development under construction that is substantially pre-committed. There is also a $1.2bn industrial pipeline.

The broker suggests management has picked the cycle well and should be commended for its disciplined growth strategy.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is raised to $3.26 from $3.11.

Target price is $3.26 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If MGR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of -36.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of -4.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates MGR as Outperform (1) -

Mirvac Group reported earnings in line with expectation and full year earnings growth guidance of 3-4% was reaffirmed. The outlook for residential margins remains subdued, the broker notes, which raises concerns over the margins embedded in the group's land bank, possibly weighing on the share price in the short term.

Passive capital underpins dividends, so limited risk on that front. Outperform retained, target falls to $3.57 from $3.61.

Target price is $3.57 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: $0.19
If MGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.20 cents and EPS of 15.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of -36.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.80 cents and EPS of 14.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of -4.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates MGR as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

First half results were slightly below forecasts. Full year guidance for earnings per share of 17.6-17.8c has been maintained.

Morgan Stanley remains cautious about the company's ability to outperform in the near term along with a perceived earnings hole in FY21.

While office comparable net operating income growth was 5.6%, incentives have crept up to 20% for leases signed.

The broker downgrades to Equal-weight from Overweight. Target is reduced to $3.40 from $3.45. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: $0.02
If MGR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.20 cents and EPS of 17.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of -36.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.80 cents and EPS of 17.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of -4.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates MGR as Hold (3) -

First half results were ahead of expectations. Ord Minnett observes office delivered strong income growth while revaluations lifted the net tangible assets value to $2.58.

The broker believes FY20 will be a strong year for profit growth although FY21 will be challenging as there will be no material apartment or office development contribution.

Hold rating maintained. Target rises to $3.30 from $3.20.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If MGR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of -36.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of -4.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates MGR as Neutral (3) -

Mirvac has reaffirmed guidance, which to UBS implies no residential earnings recovery in FY21. Nevertheless, the broker acknowledges the company's assessment that the residential outlook is improving.

Mirvac has begun re-stocking its pipeline, with three new projects in the first half. UBS believes Mirvac is well-placed to capitalise on the improved sentiment for apartments. Neutral rating and $3.30 target maintained.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If MGR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.20 cents and EPS of 17.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of -36.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.80 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of -4.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MME  MONEYME LIMITED

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Overnight Price: $1.76

Morgans rates MME as Add (1) -

The company's trading update - first half results are expected on February 26 - revealed loan growth is on track to exceed prospectus.

Morgans notes margins are stable and sales and marketing costs are in line with prospectus estimates.

The broker upgrades FY20 and FY21 estimates for earnings per share by 11% and 16% respectively.

Add rating maintained. Target is raised to $2.06 from $1.79.

Target price is $2.06 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: $0.3
If MME meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 220.00.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 83.81.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NCK  NICK SCALI LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation

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Overnight Price: $8.31

Citi rates NCK as Buy (1) -

First half results were ahead of expectations. Citi believes Nick Scali is at the early stage of a cyclical recovery and earnings growth should be underpinned by the improving housing cycle.

Further upside could come from an accretive acquisition as the company is in a net cash position.

The broker has increased conviction around an improving second half, given better comparable store orders and stable customer deposits on a per-store basis.

Buy rating reiterated. Target is raised to $9.05 from $6.90. Estimates for earnings per share are upgraded for FY20-22 by 2-9%.

Target price is $9.05 Current Price is $8.31 Difference: $0.74
If NCK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 45.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.43.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 50.60 cents and EPS of 48.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.99.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates NCK as Neutral (3) -

Nick Scali's result came in ahead of guidance updated in October. While sales deteriorated over the course of 2019, more recent indications are of sales stabilising and showing signs of improvement, the broker notes. No formal guidance offered other than management is confident in the trend along with new store openings.

The stock had already started to move before yesterday and is now trading at an above average PE at what looks like a cyclical low. Neutral retained, target rises to $7.80 from $6.00.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $8.31 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If NCK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 44.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.76.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 49.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.65.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PNI  PINNACLE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $5.79

Macquarie rates PNI as Outperform (1) -

Pinnacle Investment beat revenue expectations but higher costs meant earnings fell short. The broker nonetheless suggests earnings may exceed expectations in the short to medium term given an outlook of net inflows, higher fees and operating leverage, noting a typical 35/65 split of first/second half earnings.

Pinnacle's track record of net inflows, solid fund performance  and investment in dividends and growth underpins the broker's Outperform rating. Target rises to $6.57 from $6.01.

Target price is $6.57 Current Price is $5.79 Difference: $0.78
If PNI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.63, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 18.20 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.5, implying annual growth of 12.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 24.30 cents and EPS of 28.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.7, implying annual growth of 25.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates PNI as Add (1) -

Net profit in the first half was up 36.5% and considered solid. Flows have moderated but scale is expected to come from several affiliates.

Morgans believes the company has structural growth embedded in the business amid future options from adding new affiliates.

A typical second half earnings skew is expected. Morgans maintains an Add rating and raises the target to $5.96 from $5.62.

Target price is $5.96 Current Price is $5.79 Difference: $0.17
If PNI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.63, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.5, implying annual growth of 12.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.7, implying annual growth of 25.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates PNI as Buy (1) -

First half net profit was well ahead of Ord Minnett's expectations on the back of strong affiliate contributions and lower corporate overheads. The broker increases FY20 net profit forecasts to $40m.

The stock is expected to re-rate towards the target, raised to $7.35 from $6.95, as short interest unwinds on the back of consensus upgrades and further flows are forthcoming. Buy rating maintained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $7.35 Current Price is $5.79 Difference: $1.56
If PNI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.63, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 19.30 cents and EPS of 21.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.5, implying annual growth of 12.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 23.30 cents and EPS of 25.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.7, implying annual growth of 25.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SM1  SYNLAIT MILK LIMITED

Dairy

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Overnight Price: $7.73

UBS rates SM1 as Neutral (3) -

UBS lowers earnings forecasts because of lower canned infant milk formula volumes and margins on powder ingredients. Valuation upside remains a limiting factor, in the broker's view.

Moreover, the coronavirus outbreak is likely to result in demand disruption in China, at least for the short term. Target is reduced to NZ$9.20 from NZ$9.60. Neutral retained.

Current Price is $7.73. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $9.19, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 46.13 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 53.53 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.8, implying annual growth of 23.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SSM  SERVICE STREAM LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $2.51

UPDATED

Macquarie rates SSM as Outperform (1) -

From a largely incomprehensible result response from the broker it appears Service Stream reported in line although soft Comdain revenues disappointed.

Yet secured contracts previously announced and a new long term Queensland Urban Utilities deal are positive for expanding Comdain's footprint.

The broker also still expects activation and assurance work to provide solid earnings. Outperform retained, target falls to $3.05 from $3.19.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.51 Difference: $0.54
If SSM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.90 cents and EPS of 16.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.49.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 17.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.02.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
ASX ASX $85.33 Morgan Stanley 82.00 80.00 2.50%
Ord Minnett 82.00 79.00 3.80%
BXB BRAMBLES $12.70 Macquarie 12.30 11.65 5.58%
COL COLES GROUP $16.90 Citi 16.90 16.60 1.81%
Credit Suisse 16.00 13.17 21.49%
Macquarie 17.20 17.10 0.58%
Morgan Stanley 14.50 13.50 7.41%
Morgans 14.29 14.01 2.00%
Ord Minnett 13.00 12.50 4.00%
UBS 13.50 13.00 3.85%
CPU COMPUTERSHARE $17.68 Morgan Stanley 14.00 13.00 7.69%
DXS DEXUS PROPERTY $12.98 Credit Suisse 13.32 12.32 8.12%
Macquarie 13.62 13.26 2.71%
Morgan Stanley 12.45 12.00 3.75%
Ord Minnett 14.00 13.50 3.70%
LNK LINK ADMINISTRATION $6.51 Morgan Stanley 7.90 7.50 5.33%
MGR MIRVAC $3.38 Citi 3.74 3.60 3.89%
Credit Suisse 3.26 3.11 4.82%
Macquarie 3.57 3.61 -1.11%
Morgan Stanley 3.40 N/A -
Ord Minnett 3.30 3.20 3.12%
MME MONEYME $1.76 Morgans 2.06 1.79 15.08%
NCK NICK SCALI $8.31 Citi 9.05 6.90 31.16%
Macquarie 7.80 6.00 30.00%
PNI PINNACLE INVESTMENT $5.79 Macquarie 6.57 6.01 9.32%
Morgans 5.96 5.62 6.05%
Ord Minnett 7.35 6.95 5.76%
SSM SERVICE STREAM $2.51 Macquarie 3.05 3.19 -4.39%
Summaries
AQZ ALLIANCE AVIATION Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.62
ASB AUSTAL Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.16
ASX ASX Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $85.33
BXB BRAMBLES Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $12.70
COL COLES GROUP Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $16.90
Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $16.90
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $16.90
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $16.90
Downgrade to Reduce from Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $16.90
Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $16.90
Sell - UBS Overnight Price $16.90
DXS DEXUS PROPERTY Buy - Citi Overnight Price $12.98
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $12.98
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $12.98
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $12.98
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $12.98
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $12.98
FSF FONTERRA Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $3.73
IFL IOOF HOLDINGS Sell - UBS Overnight Price $7.12
MGR MIRVAC Buy - Citi Overnight Price $3.38
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.38
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.38
Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.38
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.38
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $3.38
MME MONEYME Add - Morgans Overnight Price $1.76
NCK NICK SCALI Buy - Citi Overnight Price $8.31
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $8.31
PNI PINNACLE INVESTMENT Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.79
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $5.79
Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $5.79
SM1 SYNLAIT MILK Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $7.73
SSM SERVICE STREAM Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.51
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

13

2. Accumulate

1

3. Hold

14

4. Reduce

1

5. Sell

4

Friday 07 February 2020

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.