ALLIANCE AVIATION SERVICES LIMITED (AQZ)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

03/09/2026

3

Hold

$0.82

56.19%

Alliance Aviation Services' FY26 earnings were broadly in line with Ord Minnett's forecast.

Net debt of $459.8m was materially higher than expected by the analysts due to delayed asset sales.

A $40.1m capital raising reduces pro-forma net debt to around $422m, the broker highlights. Further deleveraging in FY27 is expected from $60m–$75m of asset sales and modest free cash flow (FCF).

Improved profitability under the renegotiated Qantas Airways ((QAN)) wet lease agreement is also noted. This will release aircraft for sale or deployment into higher-returning activities, Ord Minnett explains.

Hold rating maintained. Target is lowered by –3c to 82c.

FORECAST
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 38.80 cents.
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY28 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 41.50 cents.

01/09/2026

3

Hold

$0.92

75.24%

Canaccord Genuity maintains a Hold rating for Alliance Aviation Services with its target price increased to $0.92 from $0.81 following a disappointing FY26 result featuring a -53% drop in profit before tax.

The company reported a -14% decline in EBITDA driven by lower margins per aircraft alongside negative free cash flow and a 22% increase in net debt.

To improve the balance sheet, management raised $40m in new equity and negotiated more favourable terms for the Qantas ((QAN)) wet lease agreement.

Canaccord Genuity notes the financial position has improved but management faces significant work ahead to realise margin and cash conversion expectations.

Earnings per share estimates are lowered by -6% for FY27 to reflect the equity raising dilution, while the revised target incorporates a -40% discount for ongoing operational and financial risks.