Australian Broker Call

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August 12, 2019

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
ALQ - ALS LIMITED Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
AMP - AMP Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
AQZ - ALLIANCE AVIATION Downgrade to Hold from Buy Ord Minnett
ASB - AUSTAL Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate Ord Minnett
JHX - JAMES HARDIE Upgrade to Buy from Neutral UBS
MGR - MIRVAC Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
REA - REA GROUP Upgrade to Hold from Lighten Ord Minnett
ALQ  ALS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $7.55

Credit Suisse rates ALQ as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Credit Suisse upgrades to Outperform from Neutral on the back of an expected recovery in geochemistry. July marked the highest exploration activity for six months. The total number of exploration projects was up 36% on June.

Compositionally, gold and other exploration projects were up 46% and 18%, respectively. Credit Suisse expects this will deliver a re-rating of ALS shares, and the target is raised to $8.40 from $7.40.

The company has also acquired Laboratorios de Control ARJ, a pharmaceutical testing company based in Mexico.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $7.55 Difference: $0.85
If ALQ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.07, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 24.39 cents and EPS of 40.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.3, implying annual growth of 24.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 26.79 cents and EPS of 44.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.0, implying annual growth of 9.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMP  AMP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $1.86

Credit Suisse rates AMP as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

First half results beat Credit Suisse estimates. The result was affected by lower earnings in the businesses that are up for sale but retained units were ahead of forecasts by 7%.

The broker now considers the price structure in the revised terms for the sale of the life business is more favourable, and the deal should gain regulatory approval. The company has also announced a $650m equity raising.

Credit Suisse upgrades to Outperform from Neutral (prior to a short restriction). Target is $2.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.86 Difference: $0.14
If AMP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.79, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.9, implying annual growth of 490.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.5.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of 137.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

The broker calls AMP's earnings result "fairly sound" with strong performances in other businesses offsetting pressures in wealth management. The focus was on the probable sale of Life at a rebased price, a $650m equity raise that will be some -15% dilutive and $300m of targeted cost-cuts by FY22.

The broker is now more positive at the current stock price but highlights a high degree of execution risk and several years before cost-outs make their mark. Neutral retained, target falls to $1.80 from $2.00.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.86 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.79, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 14.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.9, implying annual growth of 490.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.5.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 13.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of 137.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

First half results were short of UBS estimates. However, the sale of the life business to Resolution Life, combined with an equity raising, should allow the company to move ahead with its new strategy, the broker suggests.

While this is a significant strategic step, the earnings and valuation implications are less clear, UBS adds. Greater clarity on plans to reshape wealth and planner networks is required to drive wider investor interest and UBS maintains a Neutral rating.

Target is reduced to $1.75 from $1.90.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.86 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.79, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.9, implying annual growth of 490.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.5.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of 137.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AQZ  ALLIANCE AVIATION SERVICES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $2.65

UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates AQZ as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Ord Minnett downgrades to Hold from Buy following the FY19 results, which were broadly in line with forecasts. The business remains strong but, with an expanding fleet, the broker suspects the pressure on expenditure will remain.

The broker also notes the ACCC is continuing to review the Qantas ((QAN)) stake and the process is likely to conclude in coming months. Target is reduced to $2.60 from $2.90.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.65 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If AQZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.50 cents and EPS of 19.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.32.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 17.50 cents and EPS of 22.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.83.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASB  AUSTAL LIMITED

Commercial Services & Supplies

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Overnight Price: $3.87

Ord Minnett rates ASB as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Earnings (EBIT) guidance for FY19 of $92m has been provided, consistent with prior revenue guidance of $1.8-1.9bn, Ord Minnett notes.

FY20 earnings guidance of at least $105m is ahead of expectations, driven by an improvement in the Australasian shipyards as well as a strong performance at the two major vessel programs for the US.

Austal now holds a substantial order book of commercial ferry contracts following major expansion in the Philippines and the establishment of the leased shipyard in Vietnam.

Ord Minnett downgrades to Hold from Accumulate, assessing the recent run in the share price means the stock is now fully valued. Target is raised to $3.60 from $2.45.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.87 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If ASB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.88, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.1, implying annual growth of 43.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.5, implying annual growth of 21.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AZJ  AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $5.84

Citi rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

Upon initial assessment, it appears Aurizon's FY19 report has beaten market consensus, including Citi's forecast, by some 4%. The company maintains a 100% payout ratio and has announced a $300m on-market share buy back.

Citi analysts see plenty of room for more positive announcements on the horizon, including ongoing potential for capital management. Neutral rating maintained. Target is $5.60.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.84 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.24, suggesting downside of -10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.20 cents and EPS of 22.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.2, implying annual growth of -17.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 26.40 cents and EPS of 26.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.6, implying annual growth of 15.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GPT  GPT

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $6.08

Ord Minnett rates GPT as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett's initial analysis is that, while GPT's FY19 report showed 2% growth, it was still slightly below the broker's forecast.

The gap between retail and the other operations (office and industrial) has further widened and this might bode not so well for peers in the retail property space, suggest the analysts.

Specialty retail sales in particular appear under pressure. The analysts also note the development pipeline has increased and this should be an incremental source for future growth.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $6.08 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If GPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.99, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.8, implying annual growth of -57.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.7, implying annual growth of 2.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HRL  HRL HOLDINGS LTD

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers

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Overnight Price: $0.12

Morgans rates HRL as Hold (3) -

FY19 results were in line with the recent trading update. Morgans notes considerable improvements were made during the second half and management expects the earnings recovery to continue in FY20.

This will be underpinned by strong growth in Analytica and a full year's benefit of restructuring initiatives. The company reiterated a focus on returning to FY18 levels of profitability, which the broker interprets as pro forma operating earnings (EBITDA) around $7.1m.

Hold rating maintained. Target rises to $0.12 from $0.11.

Target price is $0.12 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0
If HRL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.00.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.14.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG  INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $7.77

Morgans rates IAG as Hold (3) -

FY19 results were in line with key guidance measures, Morgans observes. While there were no real composition issues, the broker also notes there was no capital return.

Flat guidance in FY20 is disappointing versus expectations but Morgans acknowledges it is a solid outcome in the context of the headwinds being experienced.

FY20 and FY21 estimates are downgraded by -15% and -12% respectively. Hold maintained. Target is lowered to $6.94 from $7.61.

Target price is $6.94 Current Price is $7.77 Difference: minus $0.83 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.50, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 30.90 cents and EPS of 37.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.5, implying annual growth of 0.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 31.10 cents and EPS of 37.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.1, implying annual growth of 4.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JBH  JB HI-FI LIMITED

Consumer Electronics

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Overnight Price: $30.72

Citi rates JBH as Neutral (3) -

On initial assessment, Citi notes JB Hi-Fi's FY19 report has slightly beaten the company's own guidance as well as market consensus. The analysts are anticipating consensus forecasts will likely rise by some 2% post the event.

H2 dividend of 51c would have surprised everyone. Gross margin is under pressure and the NZ operations continue to run at a loss. Management's outlook implies downward pressure for pretty much every part of the business, suggest the analysts.

Citi retains the Neutral rating with a price target of $27.80.

Target price is $27.80 Current Price is $30.72 Difference: minus $2.92 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.33, suggesting downside of -11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 138.00 cents and EPS of 211.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 210.1, implying annual growth of 3.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 137.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 142.00 cents and EPS of 219.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 212.7, implying annual growth of 1.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 139.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates JBH as Hold (3) -

Upon initial analysis, Ord Minnett finds the FY19 result marks a slight "beat", also because it was better than management's own guidance range. The H2 dividend of 51c was equally a "beat".

Guidance for the year ahead, however, sits below market consensus. The July trading update was better than  expected, but with weak sales at The Good Guys. The analysts note New Zealand operations remain weak.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $30.72 Difference: minus $1.72 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.33, suggesting downside of -11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 138.00 cents and EPS of 212.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 210.1, implying annual growth of 3.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 137.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 143.00 cents and EPS of 220.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 212.7, implying annual growth of 1.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 139.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHX  JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES N.V.

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $22.14

Citi rates JHX as Buy (1) -

Citi notes a solid first quarter in terms of volume growth was in contrast to the flat to lower volumes being experienced at the company's rivals in the US.

Margins are now at the top end of the range (20-25%) and the broker expects FY21-22 will exceed this, forecasting 25.5% in FY21 and 25.8% in FY22.

Citi considers the company's three-year strategic transformation has started strongly, revealing strong momentum at arguably a bottom in the US housing market. Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $25 from $21.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $22.14 Difference: $2.86
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.39, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 69.00 cents and EPS of 114.21 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 117.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 81.68 cents and EPS of 135.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 132.6, implying annual growth of 13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates JHX as Outperform (1) -

First quarter earnings (EBIT) were 5% ahead of Credit Suisse forecasts. Primary demand growth improved markedly and yet, the broker notes, the company has not raised its FY20 guidance of 3-5%.

Credit Suisse acknowledges there is always variability in the quarterly and, as a result, increases its forecasts for primary demand growth to 4.0%. Outperform maintained. Target is raised to $23.70 from $23.25.

Target price is $23.70 Current Price is $22.14 Difference: $1.56
If JHX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.39, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 59.15 cents and EPS of 108.84 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 117.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 71.82 cents and EPS of 119.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 132.6, implying annual growth of 13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates JHX as Outperform (1) -

James Hardie's first half featured a strong beat on profit driven by solid growth in US exteriors and improvement in US margins, the broker notes. The broker sees the first credible signs of an execution plan aimed to deliver a stronger organisation.

Cost pressure will intensify as the year progresses but the broker believes the medium to longer term thesis is a strong one, supported by firm but not overwhelming market conditions. Outperform retained, target rises to $25.35 from $23.80.

Target price is $25.35 Current Price is $22.14 Difference: $3.21
If JHX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.39, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 54.92 cents and EPS of 110.27 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 117.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 76.05 cents and EPS of 125.62 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 132.6, implying annual growth of 13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Overweight (1) -

First quarter earnings (EBIT) were ahead of Morgan Stanley's forecasts. The result was supported by the strong performance in North America, with exteriors up 5% and generating an earnings margin of 25.1%.

Despite a strong response in the share price, Morgan Stanley assesses James Hardie continues to trade at a discount to industrials peers. This is difficult for the broker to justify given the quality of the stock and growth attributes.

Target is raised to $25 from $21. Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating and Cautious industry view.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $22.14 Difference: $2.86
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.39, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 56.33 cents and EPS of 115.48 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 117.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 64.78 cents and EPS of 133.78 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 132.6, implying annual growth of 13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates JHX as Accumulate (2) -

First quarter earnings beat Ord Minnett's forecasts. The broker considers the business has clear operating momentum and FY20 guidance appears conservative.

The broker expects the bottom end of the company's forecast ranges will be lifted as the year progresses, and briefings in Europe and the US in September should improve sentiment further.

Accumulate maintained. Target rises to $23.50 from $21.75.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $22.14 Difference: $1.36
If JHX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.39, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 111.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 117.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 122.52 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 132.6, implying annual growth of 13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates JHX as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

First quarter results were stronger than UBS expected and the outlook remains robust. The broker upgrades to Buy from Neutral.

Volume growth in the US was partially the result of  improved management of distribution channels, management asserts, rather than channel stocking or a pulling forward of sales.

UBS assesses the outlook for margins is strong, as both input costs and cost reductions are supportive. UBS raises the target to $23.80 from $19.90.

Target price is $23.80 Current Price is $22.14 Difference: $1.66
If JHX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.39, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 77.45 cents and EPS of 111.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 117.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 83.09 cents and EPS of 123.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 132.6, implying annual growth of 13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGR  MIRVAC GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $3.25

Credit Suisse rates MGR as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

FY19 results were in line with Credit Suisse estimates. The earnings outlook for FY20 is better than the broker expected. The company is guiding for free funds from operations of 17.6-17.8c per security, indicating growth of 3-4%.

The growth in recurring income is the key positive, in the broker's view. Residential pre-sales have trended lower but the broker expects FY20 should be a strong year for residential earnings.

Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral on valuation grounds. Target is raised to $3.04 from $2.85.

Target price is $3.04 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If MGR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.18, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of -36.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.2, implying annual growth of -1.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWS  NEWS CORPORATION

Print, Radio & TV

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Overnight Price: $21.35

Morgan Stanley rates NWS as Underweight (5) -

FY19 operating earnings (EBITDA) were in line with expectations. Morgan Stanley believes asset sales and capital management are the key to unlocking shareholder value. No guidance was provided.

The company has stated it is focused on simplifying the structure of the business and making clear the value of the sum of the parts. While the asset sale conversation is helpful, Morgan Stanley considers weakness in REA Group ((REA)) is overhanging the stock.

Underweight rating, US$11.50 target and Attractive industry view maintained.

Current Price is $21.35. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $21.24, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.91 cents and EPS of 57.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.3.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 28.17 cents and EPS of 61.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.6, implying annual growth of 10.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REA  REA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate

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Overnight Price: $102.73

Credit Suisse rates REA as Neutral (3) -

FY19 results were below Credit Suisse estimates, primarily because of listings weakness in the Australian market. Asia was also affected by macro weakness and competitive pressures.

Financial services revenue was also lower because of tighter lending conditions and a subdued property market.

Credit Suisse concedes the near-term listings environment is now less relevant for REA Group but did expect more of a recovery in the second half, given significant declines since January and amid a more favourable environment for the property market.

Neutral maintained. Target is raised to $90.50 from $77.60.

Target price is $90.50 Current Price is $102.73 Difference: minus $12.23 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $95.65, suggesting downside of -6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 140.00 cents and EPS of 295.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 276.4, implying annual growth of 246.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 133.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 162.00 cents and EPS of 295.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 311.2, implying annual growth of 12.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 154.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates REA as Outperform (1) -

Amid weak listing volumes and a weighting to Sydney and Melbourne, REA Group delivered a result slightly below forecasts on revenue and earnings. The key positive, the broker suggests, is a commitment to flat costs in FY20, which should deliver operating leverage if the market improves and provide some protection if it does not.

It's all about volume trends. The broker sees a further -5% fall in the first half but an 11% bounce in the second as weak comparables are cycled from last year. Outperform retained, target rises to $107 from $105.50.

Target price is $107.00 Current Price is $102.73 Difference: $4.27
If REA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $95.65, suggesting downside of -6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 135.00 cents and EPS of 269.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 276.4, implying annual growth of 246.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 133.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 158.00 cents and EPS of 316.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 311.2, implying annual growth of 12.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 154.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates REA as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes investors will be focused on just when the Australian residential property market is expected to recover after the company's FY19 earnings turned out lower than forecast.

While the company retains a dominant competitive position and strong pricing power, it is clear to the broker that advertising volumes are still sharply negative.

No earnings guidance was provided for FY20, but Morgan Stanley expects estimates will move lower. Industry view is Attractive. Overweight rating retained. Target is $90.

Target price is $90.00 Current Price is $102.73 Difference: minus $12.73 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $95.65, suggesting downside of -6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 281.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 276.4, implying annual growth of 246.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 133.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 329.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 311.2, implying annual growth of 12.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 154.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates REA as Reduce (5) -

Morgans errs on the side of caution and delays the timing of the assumed rebound in listings to the second half of FY20, with forecasts reduced accordingly.

The company appears confident that listings volumes will rebound in FY20 but the broker highlights that, in case this is not so, costs have been essentially frozen.

Morgans notes the Australian residential marketplace business overcame the worst downturn in listings in decades to post modest revenue and earnings growth in FY19, better than feared.

Reduce maintained. Target is raised to $92.07 from $91.94.

Target price is $92.07 Current Price is $102.73 Difference: minus $10.66 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $95.65, suggesting downside of -6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 124.00 cents and EPS of 268.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 276.4, implying annual growth of 246.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 133.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 147.00 cents and EPS of 306.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 311.2, implying annual growth of 12.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 154.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates REA as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Ord Minnett believes the worst of the property downturn is behind the company and there is flexibility around costs. FY19 net profit was below the broker's forecast.

Margin expectations are increased for FY20-21 because of a much lower cost base. Listings are also expected to improve going into the second quarter when easier comparables will be cycled.

Rating is upgraded to Hold from Lighten and the target raised to $90 from $71.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $90.00 Current Price is $102.73 Difference: minus $12.73 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $95.65, suggesting downside of -6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 271.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 276.4, implying annual growth of 246.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 133.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 322.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 311.2, implying annual growth of 12.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 154.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates REA as Neutral (3) -

FY19 results were mixed and FY20 revenue outcomes remain volatile, UBS observes. The broker notes the fourth quarter was the first with negative revenue growth for the company.

Still, the broker believes the market is willing to buy the stock for an eventual rebound. Revenue growth is expected to be heavily weighted to the second half of FY20.

UBS maintains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $95 from $89.

Target price is $95.00 Current Price is $102.73 Difference: minus $7.73 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $95.65, suggesting downside of -6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 128.00 cents and EPS of 256.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 276.4, implying annual growth of 246.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 133.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.2.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 150.00 cents and EPS of 299.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 311.2, implying annual growth of 12.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 154.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SYD  SYDNEY AIRPORT HOLDINGS LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $8.44

Morgan Stanley rates SYD as Overweight (1) -

The company anticipates a one-off expense of -$182m in FY19. This relates to an indemnity provided by Sydney Airport under the previous Macquarie Airports ownership structure and in relation to the sale of Copenhagen Airport in 2011.

Morgan Stanley notes Sydney Airport continues to support Copenhagen Airport's position on the dispute, which may not be determined for several years.

No material impact on net operating receipts is expected. FY19 distribution guidance of $0.39 per security has been reaffirmed. Overweight rating. Target is $8.28. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $8.28 Current Price is $8.44 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If SYD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.74, suggesting downside of -8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.3, implying annual growth of 4.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.8.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 40.50 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.0, implying annual growth of 9.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Broker New Target Prev Target Change
ALQ ALS LIMITED Credit Suisse 8.40 7.40 13.51%
AMP AMP Credit Suisse 2.00 1.90 5.26%
Macquarie 1.80 2.00 -10.00%
UBS 1.75 1.90 -7.89%
AQZ ALLIANCE AVIATION Ord Minnett 2.60 2.90 -10.34%
ASB AUSTAL Ord Minnett 3.60 2.45 46.94%
AWC ALUMINA Morgan Stanley 2.95 3.00 -1.67%
EVN EVOLUTION MINING Morgan Stanley 3.30 2.70 22.22%
FMG FORTESCUE Morgan Stanley 7.65 7.95 -3.77%
GXY GALAXY RESOURCES Morgan Stanley 1.35 1.45 -6.90%
HRL HRL HOLDINGS Morgans 0.12 0.11 9.09%
IAG INSURANCE AUSTRALIA Morgans 6.94 7.61 -8.80%
IGO INDEPENDENCE GROUP Morgan Stanley 4.60 4.55 1.10%
ILU ILUKA RESOURCES Morgan Stanley 11.25 12.10 -7.02%
JHX JAMES HARDIE Citi 25.00 21.00 19.05%
Credit Suisse 23.70 23.25 1.94%
Macquarie 25.35 23.80 6.51%
Morgan Stanley 25.00 21.00 19.05%
Ord Minnett 23.50 21.75 8.05%
UBS 23.80 19.90 19.60%
MGR MIRVAC Credit Suisse 3.04 2.85 6.67%
MIN MINERAL RESOURCES Morgan Stanley 18.80 19.50 -3.59%
NCM NEWCREST MINING Morgan Stanley 26.00 24.25 7.22%
NST NORTHERN STAR Morgan Stanley 8.60 7.15 20.28%
ORE OROCOBRE Morgan Stanley 2.75 3.25 -15.38%
OZL OZ MINERALS Morgan Stanley 10.50 10.90 -3.67%
REA REA GROUP Credit Suisse 90.50 77.60 16.62%
Macquarie 107.00 105.50 1.42%
Morgans 92.07 91.94 0.14%
Ord Minnett 90.00 71.00 26.76%
UBS 95.00 89.00 6.74%
RRL REGIS RESOURCES Morgan Stanley 4.65 4.20 10.71%
SFR SANDFIRE Morgan Stanley 7.65 8.45 -9.47%
SYR SYRAH RESOURCES Morgan Stanley 0.85 1.05 -19.05%
WSA WESTERN AREAS Morgan Stanley 2.25 2.10 7.14%
Summaries
ALQ ALS LIMITED Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $7.55
AMP AMP Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $1.86
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.86
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $1.86
AQZ ALLIANCE AVIATION Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.65
ASB AUSTAL Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.87
AZJ AURIZON HOLDINGS Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $5.84
GPT GPT Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $6.08
HRL HRL HOLDINGS Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $0.12
IAG INSURANCE AUSTRALIA Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $7.77
JBH JB HI-FI Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $30.72
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $30.72
JHX JAMES HARDIE Buy - Citi Overnight Price $22.14
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $22.14
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $22.14
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $22.14
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $22.14
Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $22.14
MGR MIRVAC Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.25
NWS NEWS CORP Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $21.35
REA REA GROUP Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $102.73
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $102.73
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $102.73
Reduce - Morgans Overnight Price $102.73
Upgrade to Hold from Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $102.73
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $102.73
SYD SYDNEY AIRPORT Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $8.44
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

10

2. Accumulate

1

3. Hold

13

5. Sell

3

Monday 12 August 2019

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