Australian Broker Call

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June 25, 2020

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1). Stocks highlighted in RED have seen additional reporting since the prior update of this Report.

Last Updated: 05:16 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
FXL - Flexigroup Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Credit Suisse
QUB - Qube Holdings Downgrade to Neutral from Buy UBS
SHL - Sonic Healthcare Downgrade to Hold from Add Morgans
A2M  THE A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED

Dairy

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Overnight Price: $18.11

Citi rates A2M as Buy (1) -

Citi observes the company performed strongly at the 6.18 sales promotion which should help resolve excess inventory.

However, a resurgence of Chinese brands was evident and remains a key risk.

Strong sales performances may be good for brand awareness and market share but are typically associated with weaker margins, the broker adds.

Buy rating and $21.50 target maintained.

Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $18.11 Difference: $3.39
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.36, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 52.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 61.94 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.8, implying annual growth of 15.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.0.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMP  AMP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $1.85

Ord Minnett rates AMP as Hold (3) -

The sale of the life insurance business has been approved by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

This was the last hurdle for AMP and will release $1.1bn in capital.

Ord Minnett considers the longer-term challenge lies with extracting value from the wealth management operations.

The broker maintains a Hold rating and $1.59 target.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $1.59 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.49, suggesting downside of -16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of 4.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AUB  AUB GROUP LIMITED

Diversified Financials

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Overnight Price: $13.93

Credit Suisse rates AUB as Outperform (1) -

The company considers it is now in a position to provide guidance, expecting underlying net profit in FY20 of $52-53m, representing growth of 12-14%.

Credit Suisse had been concerned that earnings may be at risk but now, with this confirmation, raises the target to $15.75 from $12.60.

Outperform rating maintained, as the stock is trading at a -10% discount to the XSI.

Target price is $15.75 Current Price is $13.93 Difference: $1.82
If AUB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.47.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 66.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.11.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates AUB as Outperform (1) -

AUB Group expects FY20 net profit of $52-53m, noting earnings throughout April and May have improved.

Macquarie believes the company's strategic product, specialisation and productivity initiatives should support the outlook.

The previously delayed interim dividend of 14.5c will be paid in September.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $15.11 from $11.54.

Target price is $15.11 Current Price is $13.93 Difference: $1.18
If AUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 34.50 cents and EPS of 71.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.51.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 71.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.37.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AVN  AVENTUS GROUP

REITs

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Overnight Price: $2.21

Morgans rates AVN as Add (1) -

The company has indicated its operating performance has improved significantly over May and June. All 20 centres are open.

While expecting volatility over the short term, Morgans continues to believe the portfolio is positioned for the longer term because of low vacancy rates, sustainable rents, low expenditure requirements and the ability to re-mix tenants.

The broker suggests, once the pandemic has passed, demand for large format retail will be even stronger. Add rating maintained. Target slips to $2.53 from $2.54.

Target price is $2.53 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.32
If AVN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.25, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 11.90 cents and EPS of 16.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of -27.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.30 cents and EPS of 16.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 6.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BAP  BAPCOR LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

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Overnight Price: $5.89

UBS rates BAP as Buy (1) -

The Australian automotive aftermarket has experienced a rebound in demand through May and momentum continued into June.

UBS upgrades fourth quarter sales forecasts to reflect the improving conditions.

While cautious about the FY21 outlook as pent-up demand and stimulus subsides the broker believes the company can benefit from domestic tourism and increased private transport usage.

Buy rating retained. Target is raised to $7.00 from $6.40.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.89 Difference: $1.11
If BAP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.47, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 31.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.3, implying annual growth of -23.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 29.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.8, implying annual growth of 1.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CQR  CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT

REITs

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Overnight Price: $3.57

Macquarie rates CQR as Outperform (1) -

The company has announced a distribution for the second half of $0.10, ahead of Macquarie's forecasts.

Operating cash flow appears to be broadly in line with expectations and the broker considers the distribution yield attractive.

Outperform retained as the relative value combined with defensive characteristics is supportive. Target is $4.30.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $0.73
If CQR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.48, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 24.10 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.8, implying annual growth of 122.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 24.20 cents and EPS of 25.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.9, implying annual growth of -10.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRN  CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES

Coal

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Overnight Price: $1.02

Credit Suisse rates CRN as Outperform (1) -

The company has updated 2020 production guidance to 16.5-17mt. Sales volumes will be higher, given the draw on inventory in the US.

Credit Suisse notes there is little optimism about the short-term outlook for either thermal or metallurgical coal prices.

Soft manufacturing demand continues to plague the industry.

Still, Coronado Global is well-positioned for when prices recover, at least on the metallurgical side.

Outperform maintained. Target is reduced to $2.30 from $2.60.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.02 Difference: $1.28
If CRN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 125% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.12, suggesting upside of 116.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.17 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 17.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of 151.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL  CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences

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Overnight Price: $292.36

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Equal-weight (3) -

CSL Behring has obtained exclusive rights to develop and commercialise uniQure’s gene therapy candidate for Hemophilia B. Morgan Stanley expects CSL to pay uniQure more than US$2bn including $450m cash.

The global Hemophilia B market is estimated to be around circa US$1.3bn, reports the broker, with CSL’s Idelvion constituting about US$400m. The broker considers uniQure's gene therapy candidate to be the most advanced as compared to others.

Morgan Stanley rates the stock as Equal-weight with a target price of $288. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $288.00 Current Price is $292.36 Difference: minus $4.36 (current price is over target).
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $311.67, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 297.26 cents and EPS of 686.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 669.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 296.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 346.14 cents and EPS of 780.11 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 754.0, implying annual growth of 12.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 334.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSR  CSR LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $3.76

Macquarie rates CSR as Outperform (1) -

CSR provided no earnings guidance at its AGM. A slowdown in demand is expected although further government support for housing is considered highly likely.

Macquarie finds the balance sheet and liquidity strong and the valuation attractive.

Outperform rating maintained. Target is $4.35.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.76 Difference: $0.59
If CSR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.09, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 25.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.4, implying annual growth of 3.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 27.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.2, implying annual growth of -8.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FNP  FREEDOM FOODS GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $3.01

Citi rates FNP as Buy (1) -

Citi envisages downside risk to earnings following the unexpected departure of the CFO. The CEO is also "on leave".

There is also increased risk to opaque Asian dairy demand and the pace of recovery in the profitable out-of-home channel.

The broker suspects the balance sheet needs equity, although there are no major expenditure projects being planned in the medium term.

Citi retains a Buy rating and $5.30 target.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $3.01 Difference: $2.29
If FNP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.79, suggesting upside of 59.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 68.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.8, implying annual growth of 2.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 62.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 7.70 cents and EPS of 12.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.6, implying annual growth of 141.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates FNP as Buy (1) -

In the light of heightened uncertainty, UBS puts the Buy rating and $4.75 target under review.

The company has announced the CEO is on leave pending a further announcement, which follows news that the CFO has resigned.

Freedom Foods is now in a trading halt.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $3.01 Difference: $1.74
If FNP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.79, suggesting upside of 59.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 50.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.8, implying annual growth of 2.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 62.7.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.6, implying annual growth of 141.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FXL  FLEXIGROUP LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit

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Overnight Price: $1.38

Credit Suisse rates FXL as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Credit Suisse assesses the pandemic has clouded the outlook for FlexiGroup.

There are some advantages for the company in that its customer base is predominantly over 35 years in age and there is high home ownership penetration.

Still, the broker does not believe it is ideal to be launching new products and playing catch up in Buy Now Pay Later in a time of economic disruption.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is reduced to $1.50 from $2.00.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.12
If FXL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.16, suggesting downside of -5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.8, implying annual growth of -13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.4, implying annual growth of -17.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO  IGO LIMITED

Nickel

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Overnight Price: $5.03

Ord Minnett rates IGO as Resume Coverage with Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett resumes coverage after a short hiatus with a Sell rating and $3.70 target.

The broker considers the stock expensive, pricing to perfection nickel prices, mine life & grade, and remains cautious about capital returns, given M&A risk.

The main catalyst is upcoming FY21 guidance. Ord Minnett expects a -20% decline in Nova metal, as grades have peaked.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $5.03 Difference: minus $1.33 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.06, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 11.10 cents and EPS of 26.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.8, implying annual growth of 100.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.80 cents and EPS of 17.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.4, implying annual growth of 6.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGR  MIRVAC GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $2.39

Morgan Stanley rates MGR as Equal-weight (3) -

Mirvac Group has announced a second-half dividend distribution of $0.03 which takes the total for FY20 to $0.091. The original guidance, withdrawn in March, aimed at distributing $0.122.

Morgan Stanley notes this implies a payout ratio of less than 50% versus the group’s typical 70% level.

This also points towards 50-60% of rents collected this half, notes the broker and expects this to improve with the group working through its rent relief negotiations.

Morgan Stanley rates the stock as Equal-weight with a target price of $2.60. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.39 Difference: $0.21
If MGR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.61, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 11.10 cents and EPS of 15.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of -39.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 14.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.3, implying annual growth of -7.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MTO  MOTORCYCLE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

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Overnight Price: $1.90

Morgans rates MTO as Add (1) -

Motorcycle Holdings has issued guidance for operating earnings (EBITDA) which is 40% ahead of Morgans' forecasts.

Despite the strong update, the share price was flat and the broker suspects the market is cautious about what happens when stimulus ends.

Morgans expects trading can remain robust and also argues inflated earnings are not being capitalised at an excessive multiple.

Add rating maintained. Target rises to $2.12 from $1.86.

Target price is $2.12 Current Price is $1.90 Difference: $0.22
If MTO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.60.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.18.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NEW  NEW ENERGY SOLAR

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $1.20

Morgan Stanley rates NEW as Overweight (1) -

New Energy Solar has announced an agreement to sell 50% of Mount Signal 2 (a solar plant in California) to NextEnergy Capital for a consideration of US$52m.

Morgan Stanley notes ongoing operating issues have impacted operating cash flows and distributions in the first half but are considered temporary.

On a side note, Morgan Stanley reports Infigen Energy ((IFN)) (Australia’s largest listed renewables company) received takeover bids, and should a deal take place, New Energy Solar will become Australia’s largest listed pure-play renewables company.

Morgan Stanley rates the stock as Overweight with a target price of $1.41. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $1.41 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0.21
If NEW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.10 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.23.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.30 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OZL  OZ MINERALS LIMITED

Copper

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Overnight Price: $10.88

Credit Suisse rates OZL as Underperform (5) -

The prefeasibility study for Carrapateena has signalled the potential for a transition to block caving in order to access higher grade zones.

The company has also indicated its move to acquire 100% of West Musgrave does not signal an intention to develop, rather it provides the prospect to package it for sale.

OZ Minerals has provided no explicit trading update but indicated performance is tracking to guidance.

Credit Suisse would have preferred more detailed metrics around capital management.

Underperform maintained. Target rises to $8.60 from $8.00.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $10.88 Difference: minus $2.28 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.18, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 11.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 91.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.9, implying annual growth of -50.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 35.59 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.1, implying annual growth of 189.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QUB  QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $2.85

Credit Suisse rates QUB as Outperform (1) -

Qube Holdings has signed up Woolworths ((WOW)) for warehouse space at its Moorebank Logistics Park.

The lease rate, once operational, is far higher than market rates in the south-west of Sydney.

Credit Suisse raises its lease rate assumptions for the remaining space.

The broker suspects the decision by Woolworths is likely to trigger further interest from suppliers and other potential customers.

Outperform rating reiterated. Target rises to $3.50 from $2.80.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.85 Difference: $0.65
If QUB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.03, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 6.70 cents and EPS of 7.29 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.6, implying annual growth of -46.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 6.70 cents and EPS of 7.45 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.1, implying annual growth of 7.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates QUB as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Woolworths ((WOW)) will take a lease across two sites at Moorebank.

Qube Holdings is expected to spend between -$420-460m to fund the warehouse infrastructure, receiving revenue of around $30m from 2025.

UBS considers the transaction a positive development in that the company has locked in a major tenant with low counterparty risk.

Rating is reduced to Neutral from Buy as the stock is now trading in line with valuation. Target is raised to $2.80 from $2.70.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.85 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If QUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.03, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.90 cents and EPS of 7.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.6, implying annual growth of -46.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.7.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.60 cents and EPS of 9.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.1, implying annual growth of 7.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHL  SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $30.33

Citi rates SHL as Buy (1) -

Having withdrawn guidance in March, Sonic Healthcare has reinstated expectations for FY20 operating earnings to be similar to FY19.

Citi asserts management has quickly adjusted the cost base to reflect what were -30-50% declines in revenue in some markets.

A large offset has come from testing of covid-19, which the broker suggests is a key upside risk for earnings going into FY21.

Buy rating maintained. Target is raised to $34.00 from $32.50.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $30.33 Difference: $3.67
If SHL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.04, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 77.00 cents and EPS of 106.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.3, implying annual growth of -13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 99.00 cents and EPS of 131.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 125.5, implying annual growth of 18.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates SHL as Outperform (1) -

Sonic Healthcare now expects FY20 operating earnings to be similar to FY19. Credit Suisse raises estimates by 16%.

Coronavirus testing continues to ramp up in the company's key markets, particularly Australia and the US.

As a result, Credit Suisse suspects there is upside to the first half but the benefit is likely to unwind by the second half and into FY22.

Outperform maintained. Target rises to $32.50 from $28.00.

Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $30.33 Difference: $2.17
If SHL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.04, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 68.00 cents and EPS of 108.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.3, implying annual growth of -13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 93.00 cents and EPS of 129.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 125.5, implying annual growth of 18.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates SHL as Neutral (3) -

Sonic Healthcare expects FY20 operating earnings (EBITDA) of $1.08bn, ahead of Macquarie's expectations.

Following weakness in March and April the majority of the company's divisions has returned to pre-pandemic revenue levels.

Macquarie assesses improving activity levels, combined with cost initiatives, are underpinning the business.

Neutral maintained. Target rises to $29.50 from $27.65.

Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $30.33 Difference: minus $0.83 (current price is over target).
If SHL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.04, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 84.00 cents and EPS of 108.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.3, implying annual growth of -13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 89.00 cents and EPS of 122.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 125.5, implying annual growth of 18.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates SHL as Overweight (1) -

Sonic Healthcare’s new FY20 guidance has operating income pegged at $1075m, similar to FY19 level and above Morgan Stanley’s expectations.

The broker notes recovery started in May with a majority of the company’s divisions returning to pre-covid-19 values (with the exception of the US, UK, Ireland and Belgium). 

The uplift to operating income from covid-19 testing for US/Germany/Australia is expected to be 8-10% in FY20 and 25-32% in FY21.

Morgan Stanley rates the stock as Overweight with a target price of $28.90. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $28.90 Current Price is $30.33 Difference: minus $1.43 (current price is over target).
If SHL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.04, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 91.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.3, implying annual growth of -13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 108.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 125.5, implying annual growth of 18.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates SHL as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Management has reinstated FY20 guidance, expecting underlying operating earnings (EBITDA) growth to be flat. Testing volumes in most of the company's divisions have returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Morgan is encouraged by the recovery in volumes but notes base revenue across around 35% of the business is subdued, and the pandemic is far from over.

This suggests cost savings and government support are doing the heavy lifting. Rating is downgraded to Hold from Add and the target is raised to $28.63 from $27.84.

Target price is $28.63 Current Price is $30.33 Difference: minus $1.7 (current price is over target).
If SHL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.04, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 114.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.3, implying annual growth of -13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 126.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 125.5, implying annual growth of 18.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates SHL as Hold (3) -

The company's trading update was well ahead of Ord Minnett's expectations. This is attributed to aggressive cost management and government support.

The broker now expects a rapid recovery in FY21, supported by coronavirus testing.

While the broker lifts the target to $30.00 from $27.50 the uplift in valuation does not support a change in the Hold rating.

Ord Minnett expects routine work will continue to normalise, particularly where rates of community infection are low such as Germany and Australia.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $30.33 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If SHL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.04, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 88.00 cents and EPS of 109.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.3, implying annual growth of -13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 92.00 cents and EPS of 137.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 125.5, implying annual growth of 18.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates SHL as Sell (5) -

Having withdrawn FY20 guidance in March, Sonic Healthcare now expects operating earnings (EBITDA) will be in line with FY19.

UBS increases second half revenue growth forecasts to allow for a more rapid return of routine work and improved margin assumptions across regions.

While unable to quantify the earnings contribution from pandemic testing, the broker suspects this has been of benefit in countering lower routine work.

UBS retains a Sell rating and raises the target to $26.75 from $25.10.

Target price is $26.75 Current Price is $30.33 Difference: minus $3.58 (current price is over target).
If SHL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.04, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 78.00 cents and EPS of 107.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.3, implying annual growth of -13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.4.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 88.00 cents and EPS of 124.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 125.5, implying annual growth of 18.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WOW  WOOLWORTHS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $36.12

Ord Minnett rates WOW as No Rating (-1) -

Woolworths has outlined strong sales for the fourth quarter. FY20 EBIT guidance of $3.2-3.25bn is in line with Ord Minnett's forecasts.

The company will also introduce dual automated distribution centres in Moorebank for -$700-780m in capital expenditure.

Ord Minnett is restricted on providing a rating and target at present.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Current Price is $36.12. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $37.98, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 129.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 130.8, implying annual growth of -36.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 93.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 142.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 142.5, implying annual growth of 8.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 103.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WPL  WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $21.58

UPDATED

Citi rates WPL as Buy (1) -

Citi assesses Woodside Petroleum is likely to be out-of-the-money on its offtake agreement with Corpus Christi T2 for 20 years.

The broker expects the company will opportunistically attempt to mitigate losses by hedging Brent/Henry Hub.

However, current futures prices still yield large losses. While cautious about these losses, the broker considers the equity is cheap.

Buy/High Risk rating retained. Target is $27.97.

Target price is $27.97 Current Price is $21.58 Difference: $6.39
If WPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.16, suggesting upside of 21.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 61.04 cents and EPS of 76.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 96.77 cents and EPS of 121.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.2, implying annual growth of 35.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
AUB AUB Group $13.81 Credit Suisse 15.75 12.60 25.00%
Macquarie 15.11 11.54 30.94%
AVN Aventus Group $2.14 Morgans 2.53 2.54 -0.39%
BAP Bapcor Limited $5.79 UBS 7.00 6.40 9.37%
CRN Coronado Global Resources $0.98 Credit Suisse 2.30 2.60 -11.54%
FXL Flexigroup $1.23 Credit Suisse 1.50 2.00 -25.00%
GMG Goodman Grp $14.90 Macquarie 16.82 14.01 20.06%
IGO IGO Co $4.79 Ord Minnett 3.70 5.30 -30.19%
MTO Motorcycle Holdings $1.81 Morgans 2.12 1.86 13.98%
OZL Oz Minerals $10.61 Credit Suisse 8.60 8.00 7.50%
QUB Qube Holdings $2.75 Credit Suisse 3.50 2.80 25.00%
UBS 2.80 2.70 3.70%
SHL Sonic Healthcare $30.20 Citi 34.00 32.50 4.62%
Credit Suisse 32.50 28.00 16.07%
Macquarie 29.50 27.65 6.69%
Morgans 28.63 27.84 2.84%
Ord Minnett 30.00 27.50 9.09%
UBS 26.75 25.10 6.57%
Summaries
A2M a2 Milk Co Buy - Citi Overnight Price $18.11
AMP AMP Ltd Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $1.85
AUB AUB Group Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $13.93
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $13.93
AVN Aventus Group Add - Morgans Overnight Price $2.21
BAP Bapcor Limited Buy - UBS Overnight Price $5.89
CQR Charter Hall Retail Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.57
CRN Coronado Global Resources Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $1.02
CSL CSL Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $292.36
CSR CSR Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.76
FNP Freedom Foods Buy - Citi Overnight Price $3.01
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $3.01
FXL Flexigroup Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $1.38
IGO IGO Co Resume Coverage with Sell - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $5.03
MGR Mirvac Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.39
MTO Motorcycle Holdings Add - Morgans Overnight Price $1.90
NEW New Energy Solar Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $1.20
OZL Oz Minerals Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $10.88
QUB Qube Holdings Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.85
Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - UBS Overnight Price $2.85
SHL Sonic Healthcare Buy - Citi Overnight Price $30.33
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $30.33
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $30.33
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $30.33
Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans Overnight Price $30.33
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $30.33
Sell - UBS Overnight Price $30.33
WOW Woolworths No Rating - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $36.12
WPL Woodside Petroleum Buy - Citi Overnight Price $21.58
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

17

3. Hold

8

5. Sell

3

Thursday 25 June 2020

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