Australian Broker Call
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March 22, 2018
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
Last Updated: 12:43 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| NUF - | NUFARM | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Ord Minnett |
Overnight Price: $13.94
Credit Suisse rates AMC as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse suggests the medium-term earnings recovery in Latin America, excluding Venezuela, may not be as strong as originally thought.
Venezuela appears to have accounted for much more of the earnings drop and, therefore, there is less to recover.
The broker maintains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $14.20 from $15.00.
Target price is $14.20 Current Price is $13.94 Difference: $0.26
If AMC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.46, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 60.76 cents and EPS of 82.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 65.93 cents and EPS of 88.59 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 91.3, implying annual growth of 10.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates APA as Re-instate Coverage with Buy (1) -
The company has raised $500m via an institutional entitlement offer. Proceeds will be used to fund growth, capital expenditure and maintain balance sheet metrics.
The broker reduces FY18 estimates for net profit by -16%. FY19 net profit estimates increase by 7% because of savings on interest costs.
Deutsche Bank emerges from a research restriction with a Buy rating and raises the target to $10.85 from $10.80.
Target price is $10.85 Current Price is $7.78 Difference: $3.07
If APA meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.50, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.6, implying annual growth of 20.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of 3.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $9.78
Citi rates BXB as Neutral (3) -
The company has announced a range of initiatives across its main operations. The most significant centres on accelerating the automation of CHEP Americas via a US$150-160m capital expenditure program. This will lift plant automation towards European levels.
Citi believes the current share price largely reflects the benefits gained from the improved earnings outlook. Neutral rating maintained. Target is lifted to $10.10 from $9.60.
Target price is $10.10 Current Price is $9.78 Difference: $0.32
If BXB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.52, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 29.99 cents and EPS of 55.97 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 31.67 cents and EPS of 59.33 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.2, implying annual growth of 3.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $17.50
Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -
The broker is back from research restriction with an Outperform rating and $23 target. Catalysts over the next 6-12 months include updates on the Wodinga expansion, the rail system and potential growth in crushing.
A material ramp-up in lithium shipments in the near term will boost earnings, the broker notes, while completion of the Wodinga plant should underpin strong earnings growth in FY19-20.
Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $17.50 Difference: $5.5
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $20.85, suggesting upside of 19.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 86.00 cents and EPS of 173.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 160.3, implying annual growth of 48.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 104.00 cents and EPS of 207.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 241.3, implying annual growth of 50.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 109.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MYR MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED
Household & Personal Products
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Overnight Price: $0.37
Citi rates MYR as Sell (5) -
First half net profit was down -36% and the company has suspended its dividend, looking to refinance debt facilities to create more headroom for covenants.
Citi believes the low-margin online channel is cannibalising the bricks and mortar sales, and the only solution is to reduce floor space significantly.
Sell rating and target reduced to $0.41 from $0.50.
Target price is $0.41 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: $0.04
If MYR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.38, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.0, implying annual growth of -63.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.0, implying annual growth of 33.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates MYR as Underperform (5) -
Credit Suisse suggests that if increasing promotion and service levels fail to drive sufficient sales, debt covenants leave little room for a further decline in trading.
The interim dividend was removed, as expected, and the broker expects no dividends in the foreseeable future. Underperform rating and $0.20 target maintained.
Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If MYR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.38, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.83 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.0, implying annual growth of -63.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.0, implying annual growth of 33.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates MYR as Sell (5) -
First half results were as Deutsche Bank expected. The broker believes corporate interest is supporting the share price but any potential suitor may only be interested in acquiring the equity for a price that is well below the shares, given the changes that are needed to make it viable.
The broker suggests, after eight consecutive years of earnings declines, there is no obvious solution to the conundrum of how to grow sales without giving up gross margin. Sell rating maintained. Target is reduced to $0.38 from $0.45.
Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: $0.01
If MYR meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.38, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.0, implying annual growth of -63.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.0, implying annual growth of 33.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates MYR as Neutral (3) -
Underlying profit was in line with recently downgraded guidance. The profit warning rendered the result a non-event, the broker suggests, as the bad news was already out there, but the near term earnings outlook remains weak.
The interim leadership will focus on product, price and customer service. The latter two should be a given anyway, the broker suggests. With debt covenant breach levels not far off, investment capacity and thus turnaround potential are limited, the broker notes.
Risk remains to the downside but Neutral retained on price and the (limited) potential for corporate activity. Target falls to 50c from 60c.
Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: $0.13
If MYR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.38, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.0, implying annual growth of -63.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 3.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.0, implying annual growth of 33.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates MYR as Lighten (4) -
Ord Minnett observes the company is moving away from its New Myer strategy that targeted more affluent customers and is revisiting its `discount value' customers.
The broker retains concerns about execution given the missteps in the past. Pressures on the balance sheet continues and this leads the broker to maintain a Lighten rating. Target is lowered to $0.37 from $0.50.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $0.37 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: $0
If MYR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.38, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.0, implying annual growth of -63.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.0, implying annual growth of 33.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates MYR as Sell (5) -
First half net profit was ahead of estimates, albeit low quality UBS suggests. Cash flow may have improved but there was little else that was positive in the broker's opinion. The company has stepped away from medium-term targets and the dividend is suspended.
UBS downgrades FY18-20 earnings estimates by -5-19%. The broker continues to believe Myer will struggle to sustainably grow earnings over the medium term. Sell rating maintained. Target is reduced to $0.40 from $0.50.
Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: $0.03
If MYR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.38, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.0, implying annual growth of -63.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.0, implying annual growth of 33.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.11
Macquarie rates NHC as Outperform (1) -
Profit was slightly above the broker but the dividend was lower than expected, which the broker suggests reflects cash being kept to acquire Wesfarmers' ((WES)) 40% stake in Bengalla. The acquisition of that stake could boost earnings by in excess of 40%, the broker calculates.
The company has underperformed coal peers due to liquidity issues, the broker notes, but this could change if the acquisition was additionally funded by a placement, increasing the free float and lifting liquidity to ASX300 inclusion levels. Outperform retained.
Target falls to $2.80 from $3.00.
Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: $0.69
If NHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.43, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.60 cents and EPS of 30.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.3, implying annual growth of 67.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.70 cents and EPS of 31.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of -6.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $8.72
Citi rates NUF as Buy (1) -
Citi believes the company is poised for a new growth phase, supported by the recent acquisitions together with the Omega-3 product, and this should deliver strong earnings momentum.
First half results have confirmed for the broker that a strong second half rebound is underway. Buy rating reiterated. Target rises to $10.00 from $9.50.
Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.72 Difference: $1.28
If NUF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.78, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 45.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.6, implying annual growth of -4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 54.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.8, implying annual growth of 36.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates NUF as Outperform (1) -
First half results were marginally weaker than expected. Credit Suisse is not overly concerned with the results and believes the stock is reasonably priced.
Pressure on farm income is unlikely to ease soon, the broker suggests, and the company continues to benefit from a preference for lower-cost commodity products, driving market share expansion in Australia and North America.
Outperform maintained. Target rises to $9.47 from $9.21.
Target price is $9.47 Current Price is $8.72 Difference: $0.75
If NUF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.78, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 43.96 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.6, implying annual growth of -4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 58.23 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.8, implying annual growth of 36.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates NUF as Sell (5) -
Deutsche Bank sticks to the Sell rating, commenting the released financials were merely a mixed bag, and slightly below expectations. In particular, the key European market disappointed, say the analysts, while revenue growth, North America and Seeds posted a positive surprise.
Higher interest costs plus a reduction in expectations have led to reduced EPS forecasts for FY18, but no changes have been made to FY19 forecasts. Valuation and price target remain untouched at $6.85.
Target price is $6.85 Current Price is $8.72 Difference: minus $1.87 (current price is over target).
If NUF meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.78, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.6, implying annual growth of -4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 51.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.8, implying annual growth of 36.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates NUF as Outperform (1) -
Profit was lower than the broker's forecast but this was the typically weaker half in seasonal terms. The broker now forecasts a 23/77% profit split between halves, as opposed to the 26/74% average.
Better than expected FY18 earnings growth guidance of 5-10% confirms there is still positive underlying momentum in the business, the broker suggests. Acquisitions provide for upside potential but as always, the weather is the swing factor.
Outperform retained, target falls to $10.01 from $10.17.
Target price is $10.01 Current Price is $8.72 Difference: $1.29
If NUF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.78, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.80 cents and EPS of 46.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.6, implying annual growth of -4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.20 cents and EPS of 67.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.8, implying annual growth of 36.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates NUF as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley observes the base business continues to build momentum. This should be complemented by contributions from recent acquisitions, providing a robust growth outlook. The broker believes there is clear scope for upside to valuation.
Overweight rating and Cautious industry view. Target is raised to $11.50 from $11.20.
Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $8.72 Difference: $2.78
If NUF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.78, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.6, implying annual growth of -4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 63.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.8, implying annual growth of 36.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates NUF as Add (1) -
First half results were weak, Morgans suggests, because of the shutdown of a plant in Australia and challenging operating conditions in Latin America. The broker notes earnings are materially skewed to the second half and full year guidance has not been altered.
Morgans reduces FY18 estimates for operating earnings by -7.2%. The revision largely reflects a slight delay in completing the European acquisitions. Add rating and $10.15 target maintained.
Target price is $10.15 Current Price is $8.72 Difference: $1.43
If NUF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.78, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.6, implying annual growth of -4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 68.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.8, implying annual growth of 36.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates NUF as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -
First half earnings were affected by weakness in Latin America and the downtime at the Laverton plant. Ord Minnett notes the company has enjoyed strong sales momentum in core geographies despite little or no market growth recently.
Ord Minnett observes increased valuation support for the stock which leads to an upgrade to Buy from Hold. Target is raised to $10.50 from $9.00.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $8.72 Difference: $1.78
If NUF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.78, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.6, implying annual growth of -4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 63.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.8, implying annual growth of 36.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.11
Macquarie rates OSH as Outperform (1) -
A site visit to PNG LNG, post earthquake, has left the broker more confident on the timeline for restart and the achievement of front-end engineering design (FEED) by year-end, and the broker believes the company will not have to raise extra capital.
Catalysts ahead include Alaska drilling results, a P'nyang resource upgrade and the PNG government's response and terms, the broker notes. Outperform and $8.10 target retained.
Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $7.11 Difference: $0.99
If OSH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.16, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.95 cents and EPS of 20.55 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.92 cents and EPS of 18.36 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.4, implying annual growth of 3.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $73.26
Macquarie rates RIO as Outperform (1) -
The aggregate sale price achieved for the Hail Creek and Valeria coal project stakes was 40% higher than the broker's forecast and well ahead of book valuation. The sale continues the company's strong track record of solid asset sales, the broker notes.
The price implies a greater valuation for Kestrel, and the broker believes the board will await a further agreement on Kestrel divestment before returning funds to shareholders. Outperform and $94 target retained.
Target price is $94.00 Current Price is $73.26 Difference: $20.74
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $83.09, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 398.14 cents and EPS of 671.15 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 629.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 372.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 358.07 cents and EPS of 597.73 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 595.2, implying annual growth of -5.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 358.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates RIO as Buy (1) -
The company has announced a US$1.7bn agreement with Glencore for the sale of its 82% interest in Hail Creek coal mine and 71.2% interest in the Valeria coal development.
UBS expects another round of shareholder returns via a buy-back once cash is received. Buy rating and $88.50 target maintained.
Target price is $88.50 Current Price is $73.26 Difference: $15.24
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $83.09, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 343.85 cents and EPS of 567.48 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 629.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 372.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 359.36 cents and EPS of 585.57 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 595.2, implying annual growth of -5.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 358.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $8.30
Credit Suisse rates SM1 as Underperform (5) -
First half growth was strong and Credit Suisse notes the company is also generating robust margins, although some of the factors are not expected to be repeated in the second half.
Still, the broker observes there is little attention to the downside risks associated with margin contraction. Instead, the market appears to be confident in the drivers of growth.
Target is raised to NZ $6.64 from NZ$6.36. Underperform maintained.
Current Price is $8.30. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 38.03 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 43.01 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.4, implying annual growth of 20.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates SM1 as Sell (5) -
Deutsche Bank analysts laud the strong momentum, highlighting Synlait Milk is currently clearly operating in a sweet spot. Post the released interim financials, they have increased their price target by no less than 25% to NZ$7.50.
However, the analysts simply cannot justify the share price and thus the Sell rating remains in place. The analysts note regulatory approvals for Auckland canning and IFC customers ex ATM remain a work in progress over the balance of the current financial year.
Current Price is $8.30. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 39.69 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 51.69 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.4, implying annual growth of 20.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $11.44
Ord Minnett rates WEB as Buy (1) -
Downgrades in the first half result were largely non-cash and Ord Minnett considers the stock still deserves a Buy rating. The mainstream flights business is the dominant driver of earnings and this division is expected to outperform.
Early results from JacTravel are in line with expectations and Thomas Cook appears on track for a major earnings reversal in FY20. Target is reduced to $13.96 from $14.35 as a result of earnings revisions.
Target price is $13.96 Current Price is $11.44 Difference: $2.52
If WEB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.10, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.50 cents and EPS of 39.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.4, implying annual growth of -21.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.10 cents and EPS of 51.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.0, implying annual growth of 36.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| AMC | AMCOR | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $13.94 |
| APA | APA | Re-instate Coverage with Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $7.78 |
| BXB | BRAMBLES | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $9.78 |
| MIN | MINERAL RESOURCES | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $17.50 |
| MYR | MYER | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $0.37 |
| Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $0.37 | ||
| Sell - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $0.37 | ||
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.37 | ||
| Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $0.37 | ||
| Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $0.37 | ||
| NHC | NEW HOPE CORP | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.11 |
| NUF | NUFARM | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $8.72 |
| Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $8.72 | ||
| Sell - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $8.72 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $8.72 | ||
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $8.72 | ||
| Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $8.72 | ||
| Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $8.72 | ||
| OSH | OIL SEARCH | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $7.11 |
| RIO | RIO TINTO | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $73.26 |
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $73.26 | ||
| SM1 | SYNLAIT MILK | Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $8.30 |
| Sell - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $8.30 | ||
| WEB | WEBJET | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $11.44 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 13 |
| 3. Hold | 3 |
| 4. Reduce | 1 |
| 5. Sell | 7 |
Friday 23 March 2018
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