Australian Broker Call

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May 21, 2020

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
CLV - Clover Corp Downgrade to Neutral from Buy UBS
FBU - Fletcher Building Downgrade to Neutral from Buy Citi
FMG - Fortescue Upgrade to Hold from Reduce Morgans
Downgrade to Sell from Neutral Citi
SGM - Sims Metal Management Upgrade to Hold from Lighten Ord Minnett
TNE - Technologyone Downgrade to Sell from Neutral UBS
TPM - TPG Telecom Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold Ord Minnett
WGN - Wagners Holding Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
WSA - Western Areas Downgrade to Neutral from Buy Citi
AQZ  ALLIANCE AVIATION SERVICES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $2.68

Credit Suisse rates AQZ as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse assesses the company's current market position shows a counter-cyclical approach to capital deployment, rather than being simply a beneficiary of the recent pandemic-driven disruption.

Temporary arrangements have become long-term contracts and the business is considered a likely winner from future developments regarding the resolution of the Virgin Australia ((VAH)) administration.

Significant upgrades to earnings estimates are made across FY20-21. Target rises to $3.20 from $1.90. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: $0.52
If AQZ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.77 cents and EPS of 21.86 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.26.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 15.09 cents and EPS of 20.05 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.37.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates AQZ as Buy (1) -

The trading update was ahead of Ord Minnett's expectations, amid guidance of pre-tax profit "in excess of $40m" for FY20.

The broker notes the interruption to the aviation market has provided an opportunity for work on new routes and new customers, and this has been an "enormous" benefit to Alliance Aviation.

The broker maintains a Buy rating and raises the target to $3.00 from $1.80.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: $0.32
If AQZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 22.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.13.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 17.50 cents and EPS of 21.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.58.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BAP  BAPCOR LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

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Overnight Price: $5.91

Morgans rates BAP as Add (1) -

Morgans is taking a less bearish view with easing restrictions and has increased its FY20 earnings forecast by 8-14%. This upgrade also includes the higher share purchase plan proceeds. Overall, the broker forecasts FY20 operating income to be $150m.

Advanced Auto Parts in the US reported sales growth to be improving significantly every week in the second quarter with more people getting back on the road.

Morgans expects the auto aftermarket to improve well before a full consumer recovery and believes Bapcor will bounce back quickly due to the nature of its activities.

The broker reiterates its Add rating with target increased to $6.24 from $5.34.

Target price is $6.24 Current Price is $5.91 Difference: $0.33
If BAP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.96, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.7, implying annual growth of -25.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.2, implying annual growth of -1.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP  BHP GROUP

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $34.51

Morgans rates BHP as Add (1) -

The fundamental story for iron ore continues to improve and stockbroker Morgans is now predicting the price could reach as high as US$120/tonne on the back of covid-19 induced supply interruptions affecting exports by major producer Brazil.

Morgans notes Brazil is the second largest producer of iron ore, after Australia, and it looks like the odds are very much favouring a disappointing outcome in terms of volumes leaving the country in the months ahead, which will only make the global market even tighter.

On Morgans' calculations, share prices of BHP Group, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals are incorporating iron ore priced at US$75/t, US$61/t, and US$76/t, respectively. This implies Rio Tinto's shares carry the most upside potential, and that's even without the prospect of a juicy dividend.

Add rating retained for BHP with price target lifted to $36.70 from $36.04.

Target price is $36.70 Current Price is $34.51 Difference: $2.19
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.62, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 166.47 cents and EPS of 292.81 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 286.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 174.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 127.82 cents and EPS of 257.13 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 259.4, implying annual growth of -9.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 170.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BIN  BINGO INDUSTRIES LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers

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Overnight Price: $2.19

UBS rates BIN as Buy (1) -

UBS expects a softening in residential and commercial construction will negatively affect waste volumes across Australia. Still, Bingo Industries should be resilient and could even benefit from increased infrastructure projects.

All up, with additional capacity, the broker assumes the company will discount to win a share of collections. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.55 from $3.45.

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $2.19 Difference: $0.36
If BIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.48, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.2, implying annual growth of 110.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.7.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.1, implying annual growth of -13.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL  BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap

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Overnight Price: $10.24

Ord Minnett rates BSL as Accumulate (2) -

Looking beyond the current crisis, Ord Minnett suggests there is value support for the steel sector. India and Malaysia remain affected by lockdowns while the industry is likely to return in the US in a staged process.

The broker also observes demand conditions in Australia are relatively solid. Accumulate maintained. Target rises to $11.90 from $11.80.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $11.90 Current Price is $10.24 Difference: $1.66
If BSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.47, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 73.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.8, implying annual growth of -67.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 77.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.8, implying annual growth of 4.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIA  CHAMPION IRON LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $2.56

Macquarie rates CIA as Outperform (1) -

Champion Iron reported FY20 earnings in line with expectation, with profit impacted by tax. The Bloom Lake 2 expansion has been suspended and the timeline delayed, the broker notes, with no new timeframe provided.

The balance sheet is healthy and upgrade momentum is significant, with FY21-22 earnings offering 103% and 307% upside were the broker to input current spot prices. Outperform retained, target rises to $2.90 from $2.80.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.56 Difference: $0.34
If CIA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 41.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.23.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.56 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.87.

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CLV  CLOVER CORPORATION

Health & Nutrition

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Overnight Price: $2.41

UBS rates CLV as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS believes the company offers attractive characteristics, being well regarded and a market leader. The business is also relatively defensive in the current environment.

However, the qualities are now reflected in the share price and UBS downgrades to Neutral from Buy. Target is raised to $2.50 from $2.20.

The company has forecast a strong increase in demand from infant formula customers in the fourth quarter, which the broker assesses could be partly because of inventory stocking and a pulling forward of demand from FY21.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.41 Difference: $0.09
If CLV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 6.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.08.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 3.80 cents and EPS of 7.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.90.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CPU  COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED

Diversified Financials

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Overnight Price: $12.69

Citi rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

Citi observes the company's position has improved slightly but, despite ongoing resilience in some areas of revenue, FY21 still shapes up as a tough year.

Positive earnings momentum is not expected to return until FY22. Although there has been a pick up in counter-cyclical revenue in corporate actions, the broker expects this will take time to convert into meaningful revenue.

Neutral maintained. Target rises to $12.40 from $12.00.

Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $12.69 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.80, suggesting downside of -7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 45.63 cents and EPS of 83.68 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 44.44 cents and EPS of 75.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.0, implying annual growth of -6.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

In an update from Computershare, management reiterated prior FY20 guidance for a -20% fall in earnings. US Mortgage Servicing reported limited impact from portfolio run-off and forbearance requests are stabilising.

The balance sheet is also stable, the broker notes, with significant progress made on securing a refinance agreement with a banking syndicate. The broker has adjusted earnings forecasts for currency and lower interest expense, noting that while the business is stabilising, valuation is now looking full. Neutral retained, target rises to $11.75 from $10.90.

Target price is $11.75 Current Price is $12.69 Difference: minus $0.94 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.80, suggesting downside of -7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 41.02 cents and EPS of 76.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 33.59 cents and EPS of 70.45 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.0, implying annual growth of -6.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates CPU as Add (1) -

Computershare has re-affirmed its FY20 guidance after a number of pandemic-led earnings downgrades, with FY20 margin income guidance at US$180m.

While the operating environment continues to be difficult, Morgans has noted some positives in the form of growing US mortgage servicing with rising unpaid balances along with a rise in corporate actions and growth in counter-cyclical activity.

The broker leaves its earnings forecasts unchanged, for now, and views the stock as having long-term value.

Morgans retains its Add rating with a target price of $13.90

Target price is $13.90 Current Price is $12.69 Difference: $1.21
If CPU meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.80, suggesting downside of -7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 61.83 cents and EPS of 83.83 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 57.67 cents and EPS of 83.83 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.0, implying annual growth of -6.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FBU  FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $3.03

Citi rates FBU as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi observes the skew to New Zealand and exposure to residential construction has put the company in a weak position vis-a-vis sales trends. While sales improved in May they were still down -10-20% compared with budget.

Disruptions in April and May are expected to materially affect profitability, given the fourth quarter is typically 40-45% of full year earnings.

Citi downgrades underlying net profit forecasts by -40% and -62% for FY20 and FY21, respectively. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target is reduced to NZ$3.50 from NZ$6.25.

Current Price is $3.03. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.47 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.15 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of 5.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates FBU as Neutral (3) -

Yesterday the broker downgraded earnings forecasts for Fletcher Building to account for an estimated virus impact. Following an trading and restructure update from the company, the broker notes management's FY21-22 expectations are more conservative.

Planned FY21 gross savings could be significant, the broker suggests, but overall net savings may be tough given the general nature of the shock. Neutral and NZ$4.03 target retained.

Current Price is $3.03. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.24 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 10.45 cents and EPS of 18.43 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of 5.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates FBU as Equal-weight (3) -

Trading has been in line with expectations until the lockdowns, which have caused considerable disruption, particularly in the NZ business.

Morgan Stanley notes the company has provided bearish medium-term forecasts for both NZ and Australian construction activity and is bracing for a meaningful impact on earnings despite efforts to reduce costs.

Equal-weight rating maintained. Target is reduced to $3.59 from $4.40. Cautious industry view.

Target price is $3.59 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: $0.56
If FBU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 15.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of 5.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates FBU as Neutral (3) -

UBS is reconsidering the earnings impact from the pandemic. The medium-term outlook for building activity is particularly difficult, as it reflects residential construction that is vulnerable to a large increase in unemployment and a drop in migration.

Fletcher Building is not likely to have significant stress on the balance sheet and, even after incorporating a greater decline in NZ building activity in FY21, the broker considers the valuation will be supported by a rebound in FY22. Still, there is limited valuation upside.

Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to NZ$3.55 from NZ$3.90.

Current Price is $3.03. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.16 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.40 cents and EPS of 21.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of 5.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG  FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $13.59

Citi rates FMG as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi marks to market for iron ore prices, upgrading FY20 and FY21 estimates for earnings per share by 12% and 8%, respectively. The broker forecasts FY20 and FY21 dividends of $1.45 and $0.88 per share, respectively.

The dividend yield is assessed as impressive in the near term but drops to 3.7% in FY22 as the broker's forecast iron ore price declines to US$63/t.

Citi downgrades to Sell from Neutral as the valuation now appears stretched. Target is raised to $11.10 from $10.50.

Target price is $11.10 Current Price is $13.59 Difference: minus $2.49 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.62, suggesting downside of -14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 87.69 cents and EPS of 221.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 222.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 188.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 13.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 53.51 cents and EPS of 144.17 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 156.0, implying annual growth of -30.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 155.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates FMG as Upgrade to Hold from Reduce (3) -

The fundamental story for iron ore continues to improve and stockbroker Morgans is now predicting the price could reach as high as US$120/tonne on the back of covid-19 induced supply interruptions affecting exports by major producer Brazil.

Morgans notes Brazil is the second largest producer of iron ore, after Australia, and it looks like the odds are very much favouring a disappointing outcome in terms of volumes leaving the country in the months ahead, which will only make the global market even tighter.

On Morgans' calculations, share prices of BHP Group, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals are incorporating iron ore priced at US$75/t, US$61/t, and US$76/t, respectively. This implies Rio Tinto's shares carry the most upside potential, and that's even without the prospect of a juicy dividend.

Fortescue Metals is hereby upgraded to Hold from Buy. The price target has jumped to $11.50 from $8.51 prior.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $13.59 Difference: minus $2.09 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.62, suggesting downside of -14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 154.58 cents and EPS of 208.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 222.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 188.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 13.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 65.40 cents and EPS of 130.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 156.0, implying annual growth of -30.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 155.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GMA  GENWORTH MORTGAGE INSURANCE AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $2.06

Macquarie rates GMA as Outperform (1) -

National Bank ((NAB)) has announced it will not renew its contract with Genworth Mortgage Insurance. Other major contracts have been renewed in the past few months, the broker notes, including CommBank ((CBA)). 

While reducing earnings forecasts, the broker notes NAB's non-renewal creates a lot of capital flexibility at this time of uncertain unemployment and housing outlooks. Target rises to $3.15 from $2.35, reflecting the capital heavy nature of the business.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $1.09
If GMA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 14.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.61.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.73.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPL  INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $1.94

Macquarie rates IPL as Outperform (1) -

The broker has returned from research restriction to apply an Outperform rating for Incitec Pivot and a $2.80 target.

The capital raising has improved balance sheet metrics, which should allow investors to focus on the medium to longer term outlook, the broker suggests. This would include more normalised fertiliser prices, improved seasonal conditions and solid explosives demand.

Fertiliser prices should recover as economies reopen, the broker believes. Current valuation implies the market is ascribing no value to the company's domestic fertiliser business.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: $0.86
If IPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.70, suggesting upside of 39.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 4.10 cents and EPS of 12.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.5, implying annual growth of 31.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of 19.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QAN  QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $3.64

Morgan Stanley rates QAN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley now expects normalised capacity/traffic from FY23, with the return to profitability in FY22, while acknowledging this outlook is very uncertain as airlines are reluctant to provide guidance on the path back to normal.

Still, the broker assesses Qantas is able to accommodate this profile in terms of liquidity.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating and is now looking for clarity on the voluntary administration of Virgin Australia ((VAH)) to assess the future state of the Australian aviation industry.

Target is reduced to $5.20 from $5.60. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $3.64 Difference: $1.56
If QAN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.87, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of minus 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 20.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -17.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of minus 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 26.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -14.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO  RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $93.27

Morgans rates RIO as Add (1) -

The fundamental story for iron ore continues to improve and stockbroker Morgans is now predicting the price could reach as high as US$120/tonne on the back of covid-19 induced supply interruptions affecting exports by major producer Brazil.

Morgans notes Brazil is the second largest producer of iron ore, after Australia, and it looks like the odds are very much favouring a disappointing outcome in terms of volumes leaving the country in the months ahead, which will only make the global market even tighter.

On Morgans' calculations, share prices of BHP Group, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals are incorporating iron ore priced at US$75/t, US$61/t, and US$76/t, respectively. This implies Rio Tinto's shares carry the most upside potential, and that's even without the prospect of a juicy dividend.

Add rating retained for Rio Tinto with price target lifted to $105 from $99.06.

Target price is $105.00 Current Price is $93.27 Difference: $11.73
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $97.21, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 818.97 cents and EPS of 1123.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 877.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 587.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 838.29 cents and EPS of 1128.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 800.2, implying annual growth of -8.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 536.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGM  SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Steel & Scrap

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Overnight Price: $7.26

Ord Minnett rates SGM as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Looking beyond the current crisis, Ord Minnett suggests there is value support for the steel sector, yet Sims Metal is facing a combination of low scrap volumes and low prices, which are affecting margins.

However, as lockdowns ease volumes should start to pick up again. Rating is upgraded to Hold from Lighten and the target raised to $6.90 from $6.10.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $7.26 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.85, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 90.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -14.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 51.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SYD  SYDNEY AIRPORT HOLDINGS LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $5.59

Ord Minnett rates SYD as Hold (3) -

Sydney Airport has reported total passenger numbers declined -98% in April. Management has a range of measures in place to position the airport for when the restrictions ease.

This includes increased liquidity via new bank facilities with a target of a -35% reduction in operating expenditure. Ord Minnett assumes no dividend is paid in 2020 and expects cash flow coverage to drop to around 1.7x.

The broker assumes border restrictions remain in place until June and domestic traffic to improve well ahead of international. Hold rating and $5.60 target. The broker suspects passenger numbers will not approach 2019 levels until 2023.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.59 Difference: $0.01
If SYD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.48, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 186.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -4.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 76.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TNE  TECHNOLOGYONE LIMITED

IT & Support

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Overnight Price: $9.82

UBS rates TNE as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Margins were in line with UBS estimates in the first half although revenue was slightly lower. The broker believes tight cost controls will be required to deliver on estimates.

Valuation remains the primary challenge for UBS and the rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral. Target is raised to $8.20 from $7.25.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $9.82 Difference: minus $1.62 (current price is over target).
If TNE meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.54, suggesting downside of -13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 51.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.5, implying annual growth of 5.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.4.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of 10.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPM  TPG TELECOM LIMITED

Telecommunication

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Overnight Price: $8.01

Ord Minnett rates TPM as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

The scheme booklet for the merger with Vodafone Australia signals to Ord Minnett that Vodafone Australia will begin generating substantial free cash flow.

This provides the merged company an option to reinvest and compete more aggressively to win market share, eliminating one of the largest concerns of the broker.

The financial position of the merged company is also better than the broker expected. Rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold and the target raised to $8.65 from $8.25.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $8.65 Current Price is $8.01 Difference: $0.64
If TPM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.01, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.4, implying annual growth of 57.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.3, implying annual growth of -13.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE  TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $9.86

Macquarie rates TWE as Underperform (5) -

Updates from global wine producers indicate early signs of demand improvement in China, the broker notes, however Treasury Wine Estates is increasingly at risk of the imposition of tariffs. Off-premise wine sales in the US have jumped but Treasury Wine has lost share.

There is also a mix-shift in demand to value rather than premium. Underperfrom retained with risk to the downside. Target rises to $9.60 from $9.50 to bring valuation in line with global peers.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $9.86 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.47, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 51.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.7, implying annual growth of -14.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 36.30 cents and EPS of 57.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.0, implying annual growth of 10.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WGN  WAGNERS HOLDING COMPANY LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $0.82

Credit Suisse rates WGN as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Credit Suisse believes Wagners is well-placed to benefit from the pulling forward of small regional infrastructure projects in Queensland. However, current activity is coming off a low base.

Nevertheless, the haulage business has provided stability, serving mining customers that have continued to operate. This is offset by an expected -20% decline in prices for Boral ((BLD)) volumes following an update on the pricing dispute.

Credit Suisse upgrades to Outperform from Neutral and reduces the target to $1.00 from $1.50.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.82 Difference: $0.18
If WGN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.93, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.58 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 141.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.7, implying annual growth of -91.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 117.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.6, implying annual growth of 414.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates WGN as Underperform (5) -

The court has delivered its judgement on Wagners' dispute with Boral ((BLD)) but this will remain confidential until June 4. Given volume and price implications thus remain uncertain, the broker retains Underperform.

Target falls to 80c from $1.25.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.82 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If WGN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.93, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 136.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.7, implying annual growth of -91.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 117.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 1.70 cents and EPS of 2.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.6, implying annual growth of 414.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WSA  WESTERN AREAS NL

Nickel

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Overnight Price: $2.29

Citi rates WSA as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi downgrades to Neutral from Buy, given a more bearish nickel price forecast.

Nickel is expected to underperform on a relative basis over the next 12-18 months as demand from end-use sectors wanes. The broker retains a $2.50 target.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.29 Difference: $0.21
If WSA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 18.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 241.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 13.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.2, implying annual growth of -14.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
AQZ Alliance Aviation $2.68 Credit Suisse 3.20 1.90 68.42%
Ord Minnett 3.00 1.80 66.67%
AWC Alumina $1.51 Citi 1.80 1.90 -5.26%
BAP Bapcor Limited $5.91 Morgans 6.24 5.34 16.85%
BHP BHP $34.51 Citi 40.00 35.00 14.29%
Morgans 36.70 36.04 1.83%
BIN Bingo Industries $2.19 UBS 2.55 3.45 -26.09%
BSL Bluescope Steel $10.24 Ord Minnett 11.90 11.80 0.85%
CIA Champion Iron $2.56 Macquarie 2.90 2.80 3.57%
CLV Clover Corp $2.41 UBS 2.50 2.20 13.64%
CPU Computershare $12.69 Citi 12.40 12.00 3.33%
Macquarie 11.75 10.90 7.80%
FBU Fletcher Building $3.03 Morgan Stanley 3.59 4.40 -18.41%
FMG Fortescue $13.59 Citi 11.10 10.50 5.71%
Morgans 11.50 8.51 35.14%
GMA Genworth Mortgage Insur $2.06 Macquarie 3.15 2.35 34.04%
IPL Incitec Pivot $1.94 Macquarie 2.80 N/A -
MGX Mount Gibson Iron $0.68 Citi 0.75 0.80 -6.25%
QAN Qantas Airways $3.64 Morgan Stanley 5.20 5.60 -7.14%
RIO Rio Tinto $93.27 Morgans 105.00 99.06 6.00%
SGM Sims Metal Management $7.26 Ord Minnett 6.90 7.90 -12.66%
TNE Technologyone $9.82 UBS 8.20 7.25 13.10%
TPM TPG Telecom $8.01 Ord Minnett 8.65 8.25 4.85%
TWE Treasury Wine Estates $9.86 Macquarie 9.60 9.50 1.05%
WGN Wagners Holding $0.82 Credit Suisse 1.00 1.50 -33.33%
Macquarie 0.80 1.25 -36.00%
Summaries
AQZ Alliance Aviation Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.68
Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.68
BAP Bapcor Limited Add - Morgans Overnight Price $5.91
BHP BHP Add - Morgans Overnight Price $34.51
BIN Bingo Industries Buy - UBS Overnight Price $2.19
BSL Bluescope Steel Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $10.24
CIA Champion Iron Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.56
CLV Clover Corp Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - UBS Overnight Price $2.41
CPU Computershare Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $12.69
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $12.69
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $12.69
FBU Fletcher Building Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi Overnight Price $3.03
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.03
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.03
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $3.03
FMG Fortescue Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $13.59
Upgrade to Hold from Reduce - Morgans Overnight Price $13.59
GMA Genworth Mortgage Insur Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.06
IPL Incitec Pivot Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.94
QAN Qantas Airways Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.64
RIO Rio Tinto Add - Morgans Overnight Price $93.27
SGM Sims Metal Management Upgrade to Hold from Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $7.26
SYD Sydney Airport Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $5.59
TNE Technologyone Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $9.82
TPM TPG Telecom Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $8.01
TWE Treasury Wine Estates Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $9.86
WGN Wagners Holding Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $0.82
Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.82
WSA Western Areas Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi Overnight Price $2.29
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

12

2. Accumulate

2

3. Hold

11

5. Sell

4

Thursday 21 May 2020

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