Australian Broker Call

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November 19, 2019

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
BLX - BEACON LIGHTING Downgrade to Hold from Add Morgans
CCL - COCA-COLA AMATIL Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform Credit Suisse
DMP - DOMINO'S PIZZA Downgrade to Reduce from Hold Morgans
MVF - MONASH IVF Upgrade to Add from Hold Morgans
SIQ - SMARTGROUP Downgrade to Hold from Add Morgans
ABP  ABACUS PROPERTY GROUP

REITs

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Overnight Price: $3.82

Credit Suisse rates ABP as Neutral (3) -

The acquisition of Australian Unity Office Fund ((AOF)) will not proceed. This follows a vote by AOF unit holders. Both Abacus Property and Charter Hall ((CHC)) had indicated no further offer would be made if the scheme was not approved.

In theory, Credit Suisse believes there will be a potential earnings drag until alternative investments are found. Abacus Property raised $250m of equity, of which a large portion was earmarked to fund its share of the proposed acquisition.

Meanwhile, earnings guidance for FY20 is unchanged. Neutral rating and $3.93 target maintained.

Target price is $3.93 Current Price is $3.82 Difference: $0.11
If ABP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.95, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.0, implying annual growth of -39.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.2, implying annual growth of 1.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APT  AFTERPAY TOUCH GROUP LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit

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Overnight Price: $31.24

Ord Minnett rates APT as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett observes the business is in acceleration mode. The trading update was full of positive surprises, with strong momentum in each of the three main geographies.

Key developments at a corporate level included a private placement to Coatue and a partnership with eBay Australia to offer a service in 2020. Ord Minnett maintains a Buy rating and raises the target to $36.50 from $35.10.

Target price is $36.50 Current Price is $31.24 Difference: $5.26
If APT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.36, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1201.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 466.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 182.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.9, implying annual growth of 241.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 136.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APX  APPEN LIMITED

IT & Support

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Overnight Price: $26.19

Credit Suisse rates APX as Neutral (3) -

Guidance for 2019 has been revised higher and Credit Suisse increases estimates for earnings per share in 2019 and 2020 by 5.7% and 7.1% respectively.

Guidance for Figure Eight has been reconfirmed, which suggests a stabilisation of the business. Credit Suisse retains some concerns regarding the 2020 earnings bridge, largely centred on the Figure Eight earnings improvement and synergy benefits.

The broker maintains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $26 from $24.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $26.19 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If APX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.66, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 7.96 cents and EPS of 55.99 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.3, implying annual growth of 28.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 52.1.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.65 cents and EPS of 69.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.1, implying annual growth of 29.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates APX as Buy (1) -

Appen has upgraded 2019 guidance for operating earnings (EBITDA) to $97-101m. The upgrade is being driven by strength in the core Relevance business and largely from existing projects.

UBS calculates the Relevance business is growing at around 18%, half on half. This should support a re-rating in the multiple at the 2019 results, in the broker's opinion. Buy rating and $30 target maintained.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $26.19 Difference: $3.81
If APX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.66, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.60 cents and EPS of 47.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 55.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.3, implying annual growth of 28.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 52.1.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 15.50 cents and EPS of 60.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.1, implying annual growth of 29.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AVN  AVENTUS GROUP

REITs

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Overnight Price: $2.80

UBS rates AVN as Neutral (3) -

The company has settled on its first property syndicate, taking advantage of its sector specialisation. UBS assesses the transaction is marginally accretive to first year earnings and slightly dilutive in the second year. Importantly the balance sheet is being de-geared.

The broker expects the company will look for opportunities to diversify its income stream and capital sources, and future syndicates are likely to come from market acquisitions. Neutral rating and $2.70 target maintained.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If AVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.84, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 17.10 cents and EPS of 19.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.7, implying annual growth of -18.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 17.50 cents and EPS of 19.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.3, implying annual growth of 3.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP  BHP GROUP

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $37.50

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

BHP and Woodside Petroleum ((WPL)) have reached an agreement on tolling price for Scarborough gas through the Pluto LNG facility and as part of the deal, BHP will not exercise its option to increase equity in Scarborough.

The broker believes the deal paves the way for Scarborough to proceed, providing upside risk to the broker's base case, with the final investment decision due in the first half of 2020. Outperform and $40 target retained.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $37.50 Difference: $2.5
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.47, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 218.76 cents and EPS of 310.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 314.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 207.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 175.87 cents and EPS of 250.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 271.3, implying annual growth of -13.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 182.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BLX  BEACON LIGHTING GROUP LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation

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Overnight Price: $1.25

Morgans rates BLX as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Based on recent moves in the share price Morgans downgrades to Hold from Add. The broker notes the company will cycle a soft comparable in the first half. Target is steady at $1.16.

Target price is $1.16 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If BLX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 4.60 cents and EPS of 8.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.06.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.90 cents and EPS of 8.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.04.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BXB  BRAMBLES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $12.43

Citi rates BXB as Buy (1) -

Citi updates US cost data to account for a reversal in the decline in lumber prices. Transport rate inflation remains modest, which the broker expects will provide a tailwind for costs from the second half.

Organic volume trends for US food & beverage retailers remain solid and should underpin revenue growth. Citi forecasts flat CHEP Americas underlying margins in the first half.

The broker acknowledges competition will need to remain rational in order to realise the benefits from lower inflation in FY20. Buy rating and $13.30 target maintained.

Target price is $13.30 Current Price is $12.43 Difference: $0.87
If BXB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.92, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 40.93 cents and EPS of 50.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 41.75 cents and EPS of 65.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.0, implying annual growth of 15.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCL  COCA-COLA AMATIL LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $11.46

Credit Suisse rates CCL as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Credit Suisse observes the Australian business has been heading in the right direction over the past six months, highlighting its estimates have been ahead of the market.

While not the preferred valuation measure, Credit Suisse believes, if investors gain confidence in the company's ability to grow sustainably, closing the PE gap to Woolworths ((WOW)) could mean the stock hits $14 a share.

Rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform and the target is raised to $11.00 from $9.40.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $11.46 Difference: minus $0.46 (current price is over target).
If CCL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.58, suggesting downside of -7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 52.85 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.3, implying annual growth of 35.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 57.29 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.5, implying annual growth of 6.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates CCL as Hold (3) -

Morgans believes momentum is building across the business. Management appears confident of delivering mid single-digit growth in earnings per share in 2020.

There was no formal earnings guidance but also no major change to the previous commentary, the broker observes.

The improved performance appears reflected in the share price, which has risen strongly over 2019, and Morgans maintains a Hold rating. Target rises to $11.00 from $9.95.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $11.46 Difference: minus $0.46 (current price is over target).
If CCL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.58, suggesting downside of -7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.3, implying annual growth of 35.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 56.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.5, implying annual growth of 6.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COH  COCHLEAR LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $227.17

Morgan Stanley rates COH as Equal-weight (3) -

The company has received US FDA approval for Osia 2, a bone conduction device for adults and children over 12 with conductive hearing loss and single sided sensoneural deafness.

This expands the Acoustics product portfolio which was 12% of total revenue in FY19.

Morgan Stanley estimates revenue in the acoustics segment will be $187m in FY20, up 7.5%. Equal-weight rating and $223.70 target. In-Line industry view.

Target price is $223.70 Current Price is $227.17 Difference: minus $3.47 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $196.53, suggesting downside of -13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 385.20 cents and EPS of 522.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 517.0, implying annual growth of 7.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 365.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 414.30 cents and EPS of 561.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 564.8, implying annual growth of 9.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 397.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DMP  DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $51.68

Morgans rates DMP as Downgrade to Reduce from Hold (5) -

Based on the recent move in the share price, Morgans downgrades to Reduce from Hold and lowers the target to $45.23 from $47.42.

The broker notes a deceleration in like-for-like sales momentum recently.

Target price is $45.23 Current Price is $51.68 Difference: minus $6.45 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $43.65, suggesting downside of -15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 127.00 cents and EPS of 182.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 181.9, implying annual growth of 34.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 126.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 142.00 cents and EPS of 203.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 203.1, implying annual growth of 11.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 142.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GEM  G8 EDUCATION LIMITED

Childcare

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Overnight Price: $1.94

Macquarie rates GEM as Neutral (3) -

G8 Education's prior guidance was based on occupancy improvement and wage efficiencies, but as the benefits of government subsidies subside, and oversupply again becomes an issue, G8 has been forced to downgrade guidance.

The company's strategic initiatives are expected to provide an offset, the broker notes, but the outlook for 2020 has softened.

Evidence of said initiatives having an impact will be required for any re-rating, the broker suggests, while debt remains an concern. Neutral retained, target falls to $2.00 from $2.20.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: $0.06
If GEM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.16, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 15.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of -9.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.70 cents and EPS of 16.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of 9.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates GEM as Hold (3) -

Guidance has been lowered for 2019, with earnings (EBIT) reduced to $131-134m from $140-145m. Ord Minnett highlights indications that the $10m incremental cost of the turnaround program will be funded by benefits from the program as well as new growth.

This signals that more costs and lower growth are the story for 2020. The broker reduces 2020 estimates for earnings by -14%. Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.00 from $2.40.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: $0.06
If GEM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.16, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 13.10 cents and EPS of 14.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of -9.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.70 cents and EPS of 15.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of 9.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GXY  GALAXY RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $1.05

Morgan Stanley rates GXY as Equal-weight (3) -

The company's update has confirmed that purification of the product at Sal de Vida will be carried out at a lower altitude, probably in an industrial park. Morgan Stanley considers this a prudent move.

One new item relates to a final investment decision, which has been delayed until the second or third quarter of 2020. This implies first production is not likely until late 2021 or early 2022.

Equal-weight rating retained. Target is $1.20. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $0.15
If GXY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.32, suggesting upside of 25.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.16 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -15.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.58 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 12.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HT1  HT&E LIMITED

Out of Home Advertising

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Overnight Price: $1.63

Credit Suisse rates HT1 as Outperform (1) -

The company's trading update points to a soft radio market. While Credit Suisse revised its numbers a month ago to take into account the weaker trends, the latest commentary suggests this has not been fully captured.

The company has indicated October revenue was down year-on-year and November/December bookings are also down. Credit Suisse points out the commentary clearly indicates the trends are affecting all media and not just radio.

Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $1.90 from $1.95.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.63 Difference: $0.27
If HT1 meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.69, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.56 cents and EPS of 13.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.8, implying annual growth of 13.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 11.33 cents and EPS of 14.16 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of 4.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MVF  MONASH IVF GROUP LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $1.05

Morgan Stanley rates MVF as Overweight (1) -

First half net profit guidance of $8.5-9.0m is weaker than Morgan Stanley expected.

The weakness is largely attributed to the departure of the five Victorian fertility specialists although, even allowing for the departures, the range is still -10% below Morgan Stanley's estimates at the mid point.

Overweight rating maintained. Target is reduced to $1.14 from $1.24. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $1.14 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $0.09
If MVF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 6.30 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.13.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 7.20 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates MVF as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

The company has outlined a number of initiatives expected to drive modest profit growth of 5% over the medium term. Monash IVF has also clarified the impact from the exit of five referring fertility specialists and the update is in line with expectations.

Morgans assesses the stock is now offering more than 10% total shareholder return over 12 months and upgrades to Add from Hold. Target is raised to $1.15 from $1.09.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $0.1
If MVF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 8.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.80.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 6.10 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.21.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PGL  PROSPA GROUP LTD

Business & Consumer Credit

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Overnight Price: $2.70

Macquarie rates PGL as Outperform (1) -

Prospa Group's update revealed originations in line with expectation but a higher credit grade risk, which has weighed on revenue. Add in higher operating costs, and only partial offset from low impairment and funding benefits, and the FY20 outlook is impacted, the broker notes.

Until the ability of the company to generate free cash flow is clear, investors will remain cautions, the broker warns. Earnings forecasts slashed and target falls to $3.40 from $5.25. Outperform retained.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0.7
If PGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 150.00.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 50.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates PGL as Buy (1) -

Prospa Group has downgraded prospectus earnings forecasts for the first half. Originations continue to grow but the rest of the forecasts across revenue and a number of cost lines have been missed.

Revenue has been negatively affected by the premiumisation of the loan book and lower effective interest rates in the remainder. Sales & marketing and general & administration costs are materially higher.

UBS believes the magnitude of the downgrade and the revenue sensitivity from the changing mix in the loan book require further follow-up. The broker places its Buy rating and $5.15 target under review.

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $2.45
If PGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 91% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 50.94.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.68.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO  RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $95.16

Macquarie rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

Completion of shaft 2 is a major milestone for Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgoi project, the broker suggests, and should lead to the pace of development increasing. Meanwhile, Rio Tinto is underwriting a $476m rights issue by two-thirds owned Energy of Australia ((ERA)) to cover the remaining rehabilitation cost of the Ranger mine.

The broker has updated estimates to include Turquoise Hill Resources and the ERA rights issue. Outperform and $102 target retained.

Target price is $102.00 Current Price is $95.16 Difference: $6.84
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $96.23, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 657.71 cents and EPS of 939.38 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 960.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 683.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 486.13 cents and EPS of 819.27 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 916.6, implying annual growth of -4.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 595.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RWC  RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORPORATION LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $4.14

Morgans rates RWC as Hold (3) -

The company had previously advised that a wholesale customer in the US is expanding its private-label strategy. Morgans understands this is Ferguson, which is looking to promote the PlumBite brand.

The broker observes that PlumBite is being pushed as a comparable product to SharkBite. So far, the reaction from plumbers regarding the switch has been muted.

Time will tell whether Ferguson is successful, as Morgans notes a number of Reliance Worldwide's customers have adopted similar strategies in the past and been unsuccessful. This signals the importance of brand.

No changes are made to earnings forecasts and the broker maintains a Hold rating and $3.92 target.

Target price is $3.92 Current Price is $4.14 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If RWC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.19, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of 18.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.8, implying annual growth of 12.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SIQ  SMARTGROUP CORPORATION LTD

Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging

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Overnight Price: $9.40

Macquarie rates SIQ as Outperform (1) -

Smartgroup Corp has provided FY19 profit guidance of $81m compared to the broker's $79.5m and consensus $82m. CEO of nineteen years will be replaced by CFO of ten years employment in February.

The broker updates forecasts to reflect guidance. Outperform and $11.66 target retained.

Target price is $11.66 Current Price is $9.40 Difference: $2.26
If SIQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.90, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 64.50 cents and EPS of 62.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.0, implying annual growth of 24.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 45.30 cents and EPS of 64.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.9, implying annual growth of 8.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates SIQ as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley is not surprised by the announcement that CEO Deven Billimoria will retire and be replaced by CFO Tim Looi as he had sold down a meaningful proportion of the stock in April.

The company has also provided 2019 net profit guidance of $81m, in line with expectations. Equal-weight. Target is $10.50. Sector view is In-Line.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.40 Difference: $1.1
If SIQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.90, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 41.90 cents and EPS of 50.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.0, implying annual growth of 24.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 45.20 cents and EPS of 56.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.9, implying annual growth of 8.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates SIQ as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

While the company's first half results proved resilient against a weak consumer backdrop, a return to a stronger growth profile is likely to need successful execution of the strategy outside the core salary packaging sector

Morgans suspects organic growth will be difficult to achieve in the second half, although the balance sheet and cash flow remain strong.

Morgans downgrades to Hold from Add and reduces the target to $10.01 from $10.15. The company has also announced the retirement of CEO Deven Billimoria and Tim Looi, current CFO, has been appointed to the role, effective February 2020.

Target price is $10.01 Current Price is $9.40 Difference: $0.61
If SIQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.90, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.0, implying annual growth of 24.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.9, implying annual growth of 8.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUN  SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $13.33

Citi rates SUN as Buy (1) -

While Suncorp had flagged a tough banking market and the contraction in the first quarter reflects this, Citi notes impairment charges remain benign and an increase in deposit funding and the fall in the BBSW rate are contributing to stable margins.

The broker points to a seemingly positive story in general insurance although margin pressure is still expected. Citi maintains a Buy rating and $14.50 target.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $13.33 Difference: $1.17
If SUN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.38, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 72.00 cents and EPS of 84.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.1, implying annual growth of 550.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 74.00 cents and EPS of 87.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates SUN as Underperform (5) -

The first quarter has revealed a continuation of the recent trends, with lending declining -0.6% over the quarter. Overall lending growth was slightly weaker than Credit Suisse expected but so too were bad debts.

The broker increases FY20 estimates by 1.0%. With earnings risk elevated and still not reflected in the share price, the broker maintains an Underperform rating and $12.75 target.

Target price is $12.75 Current Price is $13.33 Difference: minus $0.58 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.38, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 91.00 cents and EPS of 103.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.1, implying annual growth of 550.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 68.00 cents and EPS of 82.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates SUN as Underperform (5) -

The broker believes Suncorp's bank impairment levels in the first quarter remain unsustainable and forecasts a revision to the bottom of guidance by FY22. While pressure on wholesale funding costs has reduced, front-back book rate variances remain longer term.

With short term risks ongoing, a new CEO and market share losses in home and auto products, the broker finds the company's performance difficult to benchmark. Underperform retained, target falls to $13.20 from $13.40.

Target price is $13.20 Current Price is $13.33 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.38, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 66.00 cents and EPS of 81.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.1, implying annual growth of 550.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 71.00 cents and EPS of 89.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates SUN as Hold (3) -

In the wake of the company's update, Ord Minnett makes minor changes to earnings, allowing for weaker volume trends and the net interest margin guidance. The broker notes business lending growth contracted by -0.4% in the quarter, although has grown by 4.1% year-on-year.

Suncorp noted strong competition for high-quality owner-occupier and investor business is likely to continue while lower rates are putting pressure on home loan refinancing volumes.

Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating and reduces the target to $13.12 from $13.58.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $13.12 Current Price is $13.33 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.38, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 83.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.1, implying annual growth of 550.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 81.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates SUN as Buy (1) -

Suncorp's lending portfolio contracted -0.6% over the first quarter, resulting in a -0.1% decline on the prior corresponding quarter. UBS notes the larger housing book declined -0.6% reflecting increased competition and a subdued market backdrop.

The company continues to target growth in its Queensland home market. On a positive note, first half net interest margin is expected to be consistent with the second half of FY19, supported by solid deposit growth and improved wholesale funding costs.

UBS retains a Buy rating as the stock is performing in line with its FY20 outlook and offers a 5% dividend yield. Target is $14.15.

Target price is $14.15 Current Price is $13.33 Difference: $0.82
If SUN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.38, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 69.00 cents and EPS of 83.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.1, implying annual growth of 550.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 73.00 cents and EPS of 89.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SXY  SENEX ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $0.36

Credit Suisse rates SXY as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse now incorporates Gemba into its valuation and believes the company's uncontracted gas supply position should benefit from higher gas prices after 2021, with acreage acquisitions signalling future growth.

The broker believes the stock could re-rate materially once Roma North and Project Atlas are at full production. Neutral rating maintained. Target is raised to $0.37 from $0.36.

Target price is $0.37 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.01
If SXY meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.44, suggesting upside of 23.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.99 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.0, implying annual growth of 334.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.76 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.6, implying annual growth of 160.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
APT AFTERPAY TOUCH $31.24 Ord Minnett 36.50 35.10 3.99%
APX APPEN $26.19 Credit Suisse 26.00 24.00 8.33%
BBN BABY BUNTING $3.74 Morgans 3.92 3.64 7.69%
CCL COCA-COLA AMATIL $11.46 Credit Suisse 11.00 9.40 17.02%
Morgans 11.00 9.95 10.55%
DMP DOMINO'S PIZZA $51.68 Morgans 45.23 47.42 -4.62%
GEM G8 EDUCATION $1.94 Macquarie 2.00 2.20 -9.09%
Ord Minnett 2.00 2.40 -16.67%
HT1 HT&E LTD $1.63 Credit Suisse 1.90 1.95 -2.56%
MTO MOTORCYCLE HOLDINGS $2.15 Morgans 2.43 2.27 7.05%
MVF MONASH IVF $1.05 Morgan Stanley 1.14 1.24 -8.06%
Morgans 1.15 1.09 5.50%
PGL PROSPA GROUP $2.70 Macquarie 3.40 5.25 -35.24%
SIQ SMARTGROUP $9.40 Morgans 10.01 10.15 -1.38%
SUL SUPER RETAIL $10.17 Morgans 11.15 9.69 15.07%
SUN SUNCORP $13.33 Macquarie 13.20 13.40 -1.49%
Ord Minnett 13.12 13.58 -3.39%
SXY SENEX ENERGY $0.36 Credit Suisse 0.37 0.36 2.78%
Summaries
ABP ABACUS PROPERTY GROUP Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.82
APT AFTERPAY TOUCH Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $31.24
APX APPEN Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $26.19
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $26.19
AVN AVENTUS GROUP Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $2.80
BHP BHP Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $37.50
BLX BEACON LIGHTING Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans Overnight Price $1.25
BXB BRAMBLES Buy - Citi Overnight Price $12.43
CCL COCA-COLA AMATIL Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $11.46
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $11.46
COH COCHLEAR Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $227.17
DMP DOMINO'S PIZZA Downgrade to Reduce from Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $51.68
GEM G8 EDUCATION Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.94
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $1.94
GXY GALAXY RESOURCES Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $1.05
HT1 HT&E LTD Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $1.63
MVF MONASH IVF Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $1.05
Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $1.05
PGL PROSPA GROUP Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.70
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $2.70
RIO RIO TINTO Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $95.16
RWC RELIANCE WORLDWIDE Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $4.14
SIQ SMARTGROUP Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $9.40
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $9.40
Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans Overnight Price $9.40
SUN SUNCORP Buy - Citi Overnight Price $13.33
Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $13.33
Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $13.33
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $13.33
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $13.33
SXY SENEX ENERGY Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $0.36
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

13

3. Hold

15

5. Sell

3

Tuesday 19 November 2019

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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.