Australian Broker Call

Credit Suisse rates AGL as Underperform (5) -

A surprisingly resilient wholesale price has caused Credit Suisse to re-evaluate its modelling for FY19-20. The broker continues to model a decline to a long-term price of $70/megawatt-hour by FY22. As such, only FY20 and FY21 earnings estimates are increased.

The broker continues to project a -25% decline in operating earnings versus FY19 levels because of the combined impact of lower wholesale prices, lower REC prices and retail policy/competition, offset by cost reductions.

Credit Suisse maintains an Underperform rating and raises the target to $17.85 from $17.70.

Target price is $17.85 Current Price is $19.42 Difference: minus $1.57 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.65, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ALX as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse observes the distance-based tolling proposal reduces revenue by -1-3%. As part of the deal being negotiated with the government, Dulles Greenway will introduce distance-based tolling at non-peak times at a capital cost of US$30m.

The worst-case scenario, Credit Suisse believes, is a one-off -3% revenue decline if there is no price elasticity. Outperform rating maintained. Target is raised to $7.50 from $7.30.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.80 Difference: $0.7
If ALX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.17, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALX as Outperform (1) -

The company has a draft agreement to shift to distance-based tolling on Greenway. This would incur a large capital cost and the major benefit would be long-term certainty on pricing. This is not a surprise to Macquarie, as it was recommended back in 2016.

The legislation needs to be approved by Congress in the January-February sitting which will provide certainty for 2020 and beyond. The broker estimates a minor decline in 2021 and 2022 dividend expectations while there is a long-term increase because of a better tolling regime.

Outperform maintained. Target is raised to $7.49 from $7.25.

Target price is $7.49 Current Price is $6.80 Difference: $0.69
If ALX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.17, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALX as Equal-weight (3) -

The company has signalled that negotiations for toll pricing at Dulles Greenway may be close to agreement.

If implemented, distance-based tolling may add to revenue variability, although Morgan Stanley anticipates stakeholders in the road will seek commensurate benefits for the incremental risk.

Equal-weight maintained. Target is $6.99. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $6.99 Current Price is $6.80 Difference: $0.19
If ALX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.17, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates APA as Resume Coverage with Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett envisages good opportunities for growth and considers the risk of re-regulation low. The broker resumes coverage of the stock with a Hold rating and $9.65 target.

Ord Minnett continues to envisage growth opportunities given the ALP's target of 50% renewables by 2030 as well as connections from LNG import facilities.

Target price is $9.65 Current Price is $9.00 Difference: $0.65
If APA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.92, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASG as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS notes new car market conditions remain challenging and expects the company's earnings to be materially affected. The broker believes it will be difficult to report like-for-like new car volumes growth in FY19/20.

Still, back end earnings are increasing and there will be minimal impact from flex commission finance changes on the company. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral as the increased valuation support is hard to ignore. Target is reduced to $1.40 from $1.50.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.12 Difference: $0.28
If ASG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AWC as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett expects concerns around China's growth outlook will feed through to lower commodity prices. A move to forward curve base and precious metal prices means -5-13% downgrades to the broker's base case estimates.

The broker has moved to a more neutral stance on miners, despite strong free cash flow and balance sheets.

Rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate. Target is reduced to $2.50 from $3.10.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.23 Difference: $0.27
If AWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.84, suggesting upside of 27.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AWC as Neutral (3) -

UBS revises commodity price assumptions which means earnings estimates for 2018 fall -5% and estimates for 2019 fall -20%. The broker notes the stock has declined -20% over the current quarter, one of the largest declines among its mining coverage.

The broker maintains a Neutral rating and $2.70 target.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.23 Difference: $0.47
If AWC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.84, suggesting upside of 27.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett expects concerns around China's growth outlook will feed through to lower commodity prices and reduces 2019 iron ore forecast by -7% amid -5-13% reductions to base and precious metal prices.

The broker has moved to a more neutral stance on miners, despite strong free cash flow and balance sheets.

The broker downgrades to Hold from Accumulate as BHP has outperformed rival Rio Tinto ((RIO)) by 10% in the year to date. Target is lowered to $35 from $38.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $31.40 Difference: $3.6
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.02, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CLW as Underperform (5) -

The company has announced a $125m equity raising to partly fund the acquisition of 27 agricultural logistics assets for $207m. FY19 earnings guidance has been increased by 1.3% because of the accretion from the deal.

Macquarie finds the sustainable long-term cash flow attractive to income-focused investors but believes this feature is largely priced into the stock. The broker maintains an Underperform rating and raises the target to $3.83 from $3.75.

Target price is $3.83 Current Price is $4.15 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If CLW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.11, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CLW as Hold (3) -

The company has acquired a portfolio of chicken processing facilities for $207m. The assets are 100% leased to Inghams ((ING)) with a 15.8-year weighted average lease expiry. The acquisition will be funded by a $125m capital raising and $99m in existing facilities.

Ord Minnett believes, while this appears to be a simple low-risk acquisition at an attractive yield, it is somewhat complicated because of the introduction of a new asset class to the company's portfolio that is subject to a wide range of potential outcomes.

Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $4.25 from $4.30.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $4.15 Difference: $0.1
If CLW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.11, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CLW as Neutral (3) -

The company has acquired 27 rural logistics properties for $207m. This will be partially funded by rights issue. The transaction should be accretive by 1.3% in FY19.

UBS believes the transaction highlights the difficulty the company has had in improving the quality of its portfolio in an accretive manner, given the low-yield environment.

The broker considers this new asset class for the company marginally lowers the average quality, which reflects the rural nature of properties. Neutral rating and $4.25 target maintained.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $4.15 Difference: $0.1
If CLW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.11, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Buy (1) -

The company's R&D expenditure is now significant, around US$900m in FY19, Citi observes. The company's main message from its briefing is the need to balance risk and reward in the pipeline.

The broker remains of the view that the company is an excellent custodian of shareholder funds in terms of R&D. Buy rating and $218 target maintained.

Target price is $218.00 Current Price is $179.24 Difference: $38.76
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $213.33, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CSL as Outperform (1) -

The company's 2018 R&D briefing has signalled  long-term safety implications for the anti-FcRn protein. Credit Suisse interprets this to suggest that it could take significant time for trials to show clinical benefits that are above Immunoglobulin therapy.

At this stage, there is insufficient evidence to conclude that anti-FcRn is a viable threat to the company's Ig franchise. Credit Suisse maintains an Outperform rating. Target is $230.

Target price is $230.00 Current Price is $179.24 Difference: $50.76
If CSL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $213.33, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates CSL as Hold (3) -

Deutsche Bank notes from the company's R&D briefing that CSL believes the development of anti-FcRn drugs will have a place in simple autoimmune disease but is not convinced of the long-term safety issues. 

Ig also has a faster treatment effect on simple autoimmune disease, such as Immune Thrombocytopenia. CSL is currently developing a recombinant Fc multimer which may help with replacing volumes of Ig lost to anti-FcRn drugs. Hold retained. Target is $207.

Target price is $207.00 Current Price is $179.24 Difference: $27.76
If CSL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $213.33, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSL as Outperform (1) -

After the company's R&D briefing, Macquarie envisages positive contributions from products that have been commercialised in recent years which should support near-term growth.

Additional avenues to growth should come from late-stage products that are in development as well as a number of early-stage opportunities.

Late stage development includes expanding indications for Hizentra, an FDA submission for a label extension to a 21-day dose for Idelvion and a phase 3 study of CSL842 for the treatment of AMR in kidney transplant.

Early-stage products include CSL312, CSL324 and CSL730. Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating and $230 target.

Target price is $230.00 Current Price is $179.24 Difference: $50.76
If CSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $213.33, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Equal-weight (3) -

The company has reiterated R&D spending will be 10-11% of revenue. CSL is targeting two new markets in 2020-23, Berinert in transplants and CSL112 in recurrent cardiovascular event prevention.

Morgan Stanley believes successful launches in 2021-24 are key to slowing down the declining return on equity and could provide material upside.

Equal-weight and $189 target retained. Industry view: In line.

Target price is $189.00 Current Price is $179.24 Difference: $9.76
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $213.33, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSL as Accumulate (2) -

The company's R&D briefing suggests most of the pipeline of clinical programs is progressing in line with expectations. Discussion regarding the superior effectiveness of Seqirus was consistent with the broker's estimates.

The company did not put a dollar figure on the opportunity in transplants but it was deemed to be significant. Accumulate rating and $215 target maintained.

Target price is $215.00 Current Price is $179.24 Difference: $35.76
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $213.33, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

The company's R&D briefing highlighted its strategy of allocating investment across existing products as well as market and new product development.

UBS believes revenue growth will be supported by core plasma product strength and the ongoing penetration of recently-launched products such as Haegarda, Idelvion and Kcentra.

Buy rating and $216 target maintained.

Target price is $216.00 Current Price is $179.24 Difference: $36.76
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $213.33, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett expects concerns around China's growth outlook will feed through to lower commodity prices. A move to forward curve base and precious metal prices means -5-13% downgrades to the broker's base case estimates.

The broker has moved to a more neutral stance on miners, despite strong free cash flow and balance sheets.

Rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate. Target is steady at $3.20.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.26 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.05, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

UBS makes small changes to its forecasts for gold and silver, with the net result being a -10% downgrade to FY19 net profit estimates and a -6% downgrade to FY20.

The broker believes Evolution Mining is a relatively low-risk option for those wanting gold price exposure and minimal operating risk.

The broker maintains a Neutral rating, as the stock is trading around fair value, and reduces the target to $3.20 from $3.30.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.26 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.05, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Buy (1) -

UBS revises commodity prices which delivers a 10% and 4% lift to FY19 and FY20 earnings estimates, respectively. This is largely because of better price realisation against an iron ore price forecast of US$67/t in FY19 and US$65/t in FY20.

Buy rating maintained. Target is raised to $4.70 from $4.65.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.04 Difference: $0.66
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.59, suggesting upside of 13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IGO as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS finds the valuation now more attractive as the share price has fallen -20% since July. This has created an opportunity to obtain exposure to a high-quality, low-cost nickel producer. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target is raised to $4.50 from $4.25.

The broker suspects the investment in Indonesian supply from Chinese battery/nickel producers may be paring back some of the bullish long-term price estimates for nickel. The broker cuts its nickel price estimates by -6% for FY19 and -1% for FY20. Gold and copper price forecasts are also reduced.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.84 Difference: $0.66
If IGO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.52, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ILU as Buy (1) -

UBS notes the share price has declined sharply, down -19% over recent months. Still, mineral sands prices have further to run, in the broker's view, and forecasts for zircon and rutile are lifted 12% and 14% respectively for 2019.

Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $11.50 from $11.75.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $7.65 Difference: $3.85
If ILU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.89, suggesting upside of 42.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LYC as Buy (1) -

Malaysia's government has recommended a permanent disposal facility for waste be constructed before the next storage licence renewal in February. This appears to be a disappointing outcome for the company, although UBS observes there may be grounds to appeal.

The government is planning to implement a much stricter regime than the independent expert was recommending. If the company were to shut its Malaysian operations UBS believes the concentrate product from Mount Weld would be saleable in China while the company restructures processing.

Buy rating and $3.10 target maintained.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: $1.42
If LYC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NCM as Neutral (3) -

UBS incorporates lower commodity prices into its modelling, reducing the FY19 gold price forecast by -2% and FY20 by -1%.

The share price is around fair value and the main issue that prevents the broker from being more positive on Newcrest centres on production and earnings momentum.

Earnings are expected to peak in the next two years because of the grade decline at Cadia, ahead of Golpu entering production in the mid 2020s.

Neutral rating maintained. Target rises to $22.70 from $22.00.

Target price is $22.70 Current Price is $20.73 Difference: $1.97
If NCM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.31, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS expects Northern Star to beat production guidance in FY19, forecasting 930,000 ounces. The broker incorporates lower gold prices into its modelling.

One issue that has prevented the broker from being more positive on the stock has been the valuation, as the market has put too much store on the successful early turnaround at Pogo.

However, recent share price weakness means the risk/return is now more attractive and the broker upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Target is reduced to $9.00 from $9.50.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.20 Difference: $0.8
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.99, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates OGC as Buy (1) -

UBS believes the mine life of the NZ assets is a key risk for OceanaGold. On current plan, Waihi will close at the end of 2019 and Macraes in 2021. Following a visit to both sites, the broker believes there is a pathway for extensions.

Gold price forecasts are reduced by -2% for both 2019 and 2020. This drives a downgrade of -5% to 2019 net profit estimates and -4% for 2020.

Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $4.50 from $4.70.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.06 Difference: $0.44
If OGC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.63, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORA as Hold (3) -

The company has acquired Pollock Packaging for US$80.5m. This will be integrated into the company's packaging solutions in North America and raise sales from this business to around 55% of group sales from 50% currently.

Synergies over the next 2-3 years will be related to reductions in operating costs and procurement efficiencies. Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating and raises the target to $3.60 from $3.50.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.30 Difference: $0.3
If ORA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.64, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ORG as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse makes no change to earnings estimates, as the company is unable to pass through improved near-term wholesale prices.

Origin Energy generates around half of the energy it sells to end customers and half of its sales are to residential customers.

Credit Suisse maintains a Neutral rating and $7.50 target.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.70 Difference: $0.8
If ORG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.04, suggesting upside of 34.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates OZL as Buy (1) -

The stock is the broker's favoured ASX copper exposure, with two operating mines once Carrapateena is delivered.

Overall, UBS believes the market is pricing in fair value for Prominent Hill, a -25% discount on Carrapateena, book value for Avanco and nothing for the West Musgrave.

The broker reduces 2019 copper price forecasts by -2% and gold price forecasts by -2%. This drives a -5% reduction to 2019 earnings estimates. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $10.60 from $10.80.

Target price is $10.60 Current Price is $8.65 Difference: $1.95
If OZL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.53, suggesting upside of 21.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS has revised commodity prices, resulting in a -16% cut to F19 earnings forecasts and a -6% cut to FY20, largely because of lower alumina prices and lower price realisation for thermal coal sales.

The share price is near a 2018 low, in spite of a strong balance sheet and sound margins, and the broker upgrades to Buy from Neutral.

UBS expects guidance to be met across all business units at the half-year result, with the exception of refineries. Target is reduced to $4.10 from $4.20.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.12 Difference: $0.98
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.99, suggesting upside of 27.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SFR as Sell (5) -

The main concern UBS has centres on the short four-year mine life at DeGrussa. The broker does not believe the risk/return profile is attractive and continues to expect the company to engage in further M&A to extend mine life.

UBS make small changes to copper and gold price forecasts with the net result being a 1% upgrade to FY19 net profit estimates and a -7% downgrade to FY20. Sell rating and $6.50 target maintained.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.46 Difference: $0.04
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.34, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SYR as Buy (1) -

UBS notes Syrah Resources is the worst performing stock under coverage over recent months. The company has faced a number of challenges and the broker looks for production to strengthen significantly into the  new year.

The broker's revised commodity prices result in a -42% reduction in earnings for 2019 and -7% for 2020. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.90 from $3.00.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $1.31
If SYR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 82% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.41, suggesting upside of 114.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TLS as Sell (5) -

Citi believes the future for 5G is bright, with incremental revenue from new business, particularly in the enterprise segment. However, most services will need much higher bandwidth and this cannot be delivered until additional spectrum becomes available, expected in FY21-22.

The broker suggests, once more spectrum is available, 5G will have bandwidth to provide a real fixed-line substitute. However, fixed-line substitution is considered a product that is really only practical for low-usage customers.

Telstra has repeatedly stated it will not use mobile as a substitute for fixed-line broadband as the capital required to provide this at scale is excessive. The broker retains a Sell rating and $2.50 target.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target).
If TLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.11, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TLS as Add (1) -

Freshly returned from Telstra's investor day, Citi analysts report this year the event was largely an educational session that delved into the technicalities of 5G. Somewhere in between bits and bytes on screen, management suggested, operationally, conditions are broadly similar to H2 FY18.

Telstra has reiterated guidance for FY19, with the added notion free cash flows will be skewed towards H2. Citi notes management's expectations regarding 5G are "positive" and the analysts also believe Telstra has already done a lot of the 5G heavy lifting. No changes to forecasts, the Add rating or $3.50 price target.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: $0.46
If TLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.11, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLS as Neutral (3) -

Telstra has showcased its 5G hub mobile smart device, to be launched in the first half of 2019. With a lack of detailed metrics and a reconfirmation of FY19 guidance, UBS makes no changes to forecasts.

Neutral rating and $3 target maintained.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If TLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.11, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WSA as Neutral (3) -

Western Areas is the most leveraged, in terms of its operations, in the broker's ASX nickel coverage because of its cost position. UBS forecasts strong appreciation in the nickel price, towards US$8/lb in 2021, because of the take-up of electric vehicles.

If nickel follows this trajectory, Western Areas could comfortably fund Odysseus. Under spot nickel prices, this becomes a very tight situation and, if the price declines further, additional funding is assumed likely.

Neutral rating and $2.45 target maintained.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: $0.4
If WSA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.91, suggesting upside of 41.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources