Australian Broker Call

Credit Suisse rates 29M as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

In reviewing its base metals coverage and marking to market its current forecasts, Credit Suisse reiterates it anticipates copper and nickel prices to fall as the market is oversupplied, predicting copper prices could decline to pre-covid levels.

Credit Suisse is cautious on 29metals' Golden Grove project, expecting the company is likely to downgrade full year guidance with its June quarter results, as the project continues to face headwinds and under perform aggressive operating and cost assumptions.

The broker does note the company's limited capital expenditure spend over the next two years, and balance sheet flexibility compared to peers.

The rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral and the target price decreases to $1.15 from $2.85.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting upside of 107.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates A1M as Speculative Buy (1) -

Given a lack of domestic copper opportunities, Ord Minnett seeks to find smaller copper stocks that can provide asymmetrical return potential. Hence, the broker initiates coverage on Aeris Resources and AIC Mines.

For AIC Mines, the broker sets a $0.65 target price and begins with a Speculative Buy rating due its single asset risk and lower liquidity than the Buy-rated Aeris Resources.

The company recently acquired the Eloise copper mine in QLD, which is expected to yield new resources through peripheral drilling around existing ore bodies.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.21
If A1M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIA as Outperform (1) -

Auckland International Airport reported an 11% increase in international passenger numbers in May to 42% of pre-covid levels, while domestic rose 11% to 87%.

Load factors were close to record, bookings are strong and more capacity will be added from this month.

With the trend remaining positive, Macquarie retains its Outperform rating and NZ$8.57 target.

Current Price is $6.67. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $7.50, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AIS as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Given a lack of domestic copper opportunities, Ord Minnett seeks to find smaller copper stocks that can provide asymmetrical return potential. Hence, the broker initiates coverage on Aeris Resources and AIC Mines.

For Aeris Resources, the broker sets a $0.75 target price and begins with a Buy rating. The Tritton operation near Cobar in NSW is considered to be undergoing a transformation, as multiple new ore sources are brought online in the next 12 months.

In addition, the analyst points out the Round Oak acquisition will add zinc and copper exposures. While the market felt this acquisition was too expensive, Ord Minnett believes diversity and a transparent mine life significantly derisks the company.

Meanwhile Jaguar adds free cash flow and exploration appeal while Stockman offers a free option should the project go ahead, suggests the broker.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.68
If AIS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 971% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley feels that confirmation by ANZ Bank of discussions with KKR about a potential acquisition of MYOB (accounting software) creates uncertainty as the strategy and financial implications are unclear.

While no comment was made by the parties on price, the analyst refers to media reports suggesting a price tag of "more than $4bn".

The Equal-weight rating and $24.30 target are maintained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $24.30 Current Price is $21.93 Difference: $2.37
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.21, suggesting upside of 26.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ANZ as Accumulate (2) -

While Ord Minnett sees some positives from a potential acquisition by ANZ Bank of small business accounting software firm MYOB from private equity (KKR), any-payoffs are likely to be long-dated.

The broker expects the market to remain wary given the varied history of acquisitions by the bank and any capital raising
required would be dilutive to EPS. The Accumulate rating and $25.10 target price are maintained.

Target price is $25.10 Current Price is $21.93 Difference: $3.17
If ANZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.21, suggesting upside of 26.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AUB as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse is assuming AUB Group's Tysers acquisition will now settle in the first quarter of FY23, rather than the second quarter, and has adjusted its forecasts to account for the additional three months of earnings. 

Earnings per share increase 15%,16% and 2% in FY22, FY23 and FY24 respectively.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $21.10 from $24.95.

Target price is $21.10 Current Price is $18.45 Difference: $2.65
If AUB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.99, suggesting upside of 29.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AZJ as No Rating (-1) -

The ACCC has approved Aurizon's takeover of OneRail and divestment of East Coast Rail, either through a trade sale or in specie distribution to shareholders. Macquarie notes OneRail was acquired at an 11.1x 2021 multiple compared with Aurizon's 7.2x.

The deal takes the company's exposure to above-rail coal down to around 50%, but risks remain around the ECR divestment, the broker warns. The broker further notes a week of NSW coal transport was lost this month due to the floods.

Macquarie is on research restriction.

Current Price is $3.77. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AZJ as Underweight (5) -

Despite ACCC approval for Aurizon Holdings' takeover of OneRail and divestment of East Coast Rail, Morgan Stanley retains its Underweight rating. It's felt near-term implementation uncertainty and investor aversion to fossil fuels will continue to weigh.

The $3.49 target price is unchanged. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $3.49 Current Price is $3.77 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

Nine months after Aurizon Holdings announced its intention to acquire One Rail, the ACCC has confirmed it will not oppose the sale, with UBS noting the Commission was comfortable that the acquisition would not "lessen competition".

Expecting the acquisition to complete in July, the broker notes Aurizon will need to divest or demerge East Coast Rail to maintain levels of competition.

The broker further notes the market is now very different from when the agreement was made, with coal prices having rallied and inflation and costs risen in the last nine months.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.95 from $4.00.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.77 Difference: $0.18
If AZJ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BGA as Hold (3) -

While Bega Cheese maintained FY22 earnings (EBITDA) guidance, FY23 earnings guidance was -13-27% below the consensus estimate due to materially higher milk supply costs, explains Morgans.

Lower year-to-date milk production and expectations for limited growth in FY23 have combined to create fierce competition among dairy processors to secure milk supply, notes the analyst.

Morgans materially downgrades earnings forecasts and lowers its target price to $3.30 from $5.33.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: $0.05
If BGA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.30, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BGA as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

While Bega Cheese left FY22 normalised earnings (EBITDA) guidance unchanged, guidance for FY23 was lower than for FY22. Due to  persistent cost pressures, Ord Minnett decreases earnings forecasts materially, and the rating falls to Lighten from Hold.

The analyst explains the company is facing significant cost pressures in FY23 as farmgate milk prices increase well above last year's. Management indicated these increases reflect strong competition amongst milk processors.

The broker feels offsetting price increases will take time to implement and take effect, while supply chain challenges are likely to continue. The target price falls to $3.10 from $4.10.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If BGA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.30, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BGA as Neutral (3) -

A disappointing market update from Bega Cheese according to UBS, with the company guiding to FY23 earnings between $160-190m, -22% below consensus forecasts and -15% below UBS.

The broker previously flagged headwinds, and the company reiterated these, stating difficulty in passing on sharp increases in milk costs to customers. UBS previously assumed a 10% price increase would recover some costs, but is now anticipating a more modest 5% increase in FY23.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.50 from $4.75.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: $0.25
If BGA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.30, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley pushes out expectations for deal closure on the Vifor acquisition to September 30 (from August 30), following CSL's confirmation of settlement on that date.

The Overweight rating and $312 target are unchanged. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $312.00 Current Price is $296.20 Difference: $15.8
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $318.72, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSL as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett sees potentially negative implications for CSL as a recent survey on the chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy (CIDP) market suggests a -25% decline in Ig usage for treatment of CIDP by 2027.

The broker estimates CIDP accounts for 9% of CSL's revenue.

The importance of the upcoming Vyvgart  (prescription medicine) Phase III readout in CIDP has now grown, according to the analyst.

Ord Minnett also highlights survey results indicated an erosion of Ig usage for the condition myasthenia gravis. The Accumulate rating and $312 target price are maintained.

Target price is $312.00 Current Price is $296.20 Difference: $15.8
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $318.72, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DTL as Add (1) -

In another record result, Data#3 has guided to FY22 profit (PBT) of $44m, which is ahead of Morgans' $42.9m forecast, though a miss versus the consensus expectation for $45m, the broker suggests.

The broker describes the result as very good in light of supply chain challenges. Management alluded to extensive product delays during the period.

The company's backorders are estimated  to be “at least $6m” and compares to $3m of backorders in FY22. The analyst points out the current backorders should comprise higher margin (than FY22) infrastructure-like projects, with a service margin attached.

The Add rating is unchanged, while the target slips to $5.89 from $6.46.

Target price is $5.89 Current Price is $5.32 Difference: $0.57
If DTL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates EVN as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

In reviewing its base metals coverage and marking to market its current forecasts, Credit Suisse reiterates it anticipates copper and nickel prices to fall as the market is oversupplied, predicting copper prices could fall to pre-covid levels.

The broker expects another challenging quarter is ahead for gold and copper miners, and while it upgrades its rating on Evolution Mining, of the gold producers in its coverage Credit Suisse prefers Northern Star Resourcs ((NST)).

The rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform and the target price decreases to $2.50 from $2.70.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.36 Difference: $0.14
If EVN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.05, suggesting upside of 32.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Equal-weight (3) -

Following guidance updates by Evolution Mining in late June, Morgan Stanley lowers the multiple used in its financial model to reflect a general fall in price for gold equities. As a result, the target price slumps to $2.40 from $4.60.

The Equal-weight rating is unchanged. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.36 Difference: $0.04
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.05, suggesting upside of 32.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HCW as Add (1) -

Acquisition activity was quieter than Morgans expected in FY22 for HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT. Management left FY22 guidance unchanged and noted the development pipeline is on-track and budget, while June revaluations also provided a 4.1% uplift.

The broker awaits more details at FY22 results on August 12 and maintains its Add rating. The target falls to $2.28 from $2.48 

Target price is $2.28 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: $0.82
If HCW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.03, suggesting upside of 29.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LLC as Outperform (1) -

Lendlease has joined Mitsubishi Estate with a third of a joint venture to purchase One Circular Quay, with the $3bn project completing in 2027. This follows the recent announcement of the $3bn Concentred JV in Singapore which will complete in 2028.

There's also progress against $4bn of planned commencements in FY22, Macquarie notes. This pipeline, alongside the shift to recognising profit at completion of developments, provides earnings visibility into FY25 and beyond, suggests the broker.

Outperform and $12.30 target retained.

Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $9.60 Difference: $2.7
If LLC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.40, suggesting upside of 30.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MHJ as Buy (1) -

Strong performance from Michael Hill's Canadian operations saw the company deliver a sales beat on Citi's forecasts in the fourth quarter.

Full year sales of $592.5m reflects a 2% beat, but the broker notes improvement from Canada is a particular positive given the company's focus on the region. 

The broker highlights net cash of $95m at the end of FY22 leaves the company well positioned to pursue mergers and acquisitions, or new market expansion.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.30 from $1.61.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.08 Difference: $0.22
If MHJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MP1 as Outperform (1) -

Ahead of Megaport's quarterly update next week, Macquarie has cut its target to $16 from $18 on higher interest rates.

Megaport remains the broker's top pick in the sector, believing consensus forecasts imply revenue growth moderation in the June quarter which may be overly conservative.

Cashflows turning positive should also be taken as a positive by the market, in the broker's view. Outperform retained.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $6.70 Difference: $9.3
If MP1 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 139% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.83, suggesting upside of 88.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NSR as Buy (1) -

Following a market update, Ord Minnett assesses a very strong operating performance from National Storage REIT. New EPS guidance provided a 4% EPS beat versus the consensus expectation. Net tangible assets (NTA) also rose by 13% in the 2H.

The analyst attributes the guidance upgrade largely to 21% growth in revenue per available metre (RevPAM) in FY22.

The REIT remains one of Ord Minnett's preferred exposures in the sector and the Buy rating is unchanged. The target price rises to $2.70 from $2.60.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.5
If NSR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.35, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Overweight (1) -

Following the KCGM mill expansion update in late June by Northern Star Resources, Morgan Stanley adjusts its forecasts.

When these changes are combined with a lower multiple (applied to all gold stocks under coverage), the target falls to $8.50 from $10.55, while the Overweight rating is maintained. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $6.92 Difference: $1.58
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.05, suggesting upside of 63.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NWL as Outperform (1) -

Despite inflows of $2.7bn in the fourth quarter, negative market movements saw Netwealth Group report a -3% quarter-on-quarter decline in its funds under administration. Final funds under administration of $55.7bn were a -1% miss on Credit Suisse's expectations, and -6% below consensus.

The broker did note a deceleration of flows in March and June, which it expects will be temporary, and that a strong structural demand for advice should support Netwealth Group's ongoing growth in flows.

The Outperform rating and target price of $15.70 are retained.

Target price is $15.70 Current Price is $13.05 Difference: $2.65
If NWL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.09, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NWL as Hold (3) -

Following the release of Netwealth Group's funds under administration (FUA) balance for the end of the 4Q (and quarterly flows), Morgans makes relatively minor changes to EPS forecasts.

Management noted the pipeline and win-rate remain very strong, including in the mid-market and small institutions segment. The broker anticipates FY23 earnings will benefit from an interest rate tailwind (higher ‘take rate’) and lower opex growth.

The Hold rating is unchanged and the target price eases to $15.15 from $15.30.

Target price is $15.15 Current Price is $13.05 Difference: $2.1
If NWL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.09, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NWL as Accumulate (2) -

In the wake of Netwealth Group's largely in-line June quarter business update, Ord Minnett retains its Accumulate rating and $14.00 target price. It's felt the structural shift to independent platforms remains, despite recent investment market volatility.

The broker upgrades its underlying EPS forecasts by 2-3% over the forecast period, partly due to higher-than-expected fee paying funds under administration (FUA) and cash balances. Strong FY23 earnings growth is expected.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $13.05 Difference: $0.95
If NWL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.09, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates OZL as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

In reviewing its base metals coverage and marking to market its current forecasts, Credit Suisse reiterates it anticipates copper and nickel prices to fall as the market is oversupplied, predicting copper prices could decline to pre-covid levels.

The broker sees fewer near-term operating headwinds for OZ Minerals compared to other copper miners, but notes costs and capital expenditure are likely to increase. 

The rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral and the target price decreases to $13.00 from $20.00.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $16.80 Difference: minus $3.8 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.48, suggesting upside of 27.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates OZL as Equal-weight (3) -

Following lower copper production guidance by OZ Minerals in late June, Morgan Stanley lowers forecasts and increases its risk weighting for the West Musgrave project in WA.

When these changes are combined with a financial model update, the target falls to $18.10 from $23.10, while the Equal-weight rating is maintained. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $18.10 Current Price is $16.80 Difference: $1.3
If OZL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.48, suggesting upside of 27.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Outperform (1) -

Pilbara Minerals took the highest bid of 41 to secure an "impressive" US$6188/dmt for its latest spodumene cargo auction, the broker reports.

The average price received from the last four sales, including a pre-auction sale, completed over the past three months is US$6,674/dmt on a benchmark equivalent basis, some 70% higher than Macquarie's price assumption for FY23.

Outperform and $4.20 target retained.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $2.45 Difference: $1.75
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 42.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PSQ as Overweight (1) -

Pacific Smiles released June patient fees and FY22 earnings (EBITDA) guidance. Both were in-line with Morgan Stanley's forecasts and the Overweight rating and $2.30 target price are maintained. Industry view: In-Line.

June represents a second consecutive positive comparison to the previous corresponding period, notes the broker, after comparisons turned negative in December 2021.

Management provided little colour on FY23 centre rollout intentions, the speed of which greatly impacts near-term patient fees and earnings, explains the analyst.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.75 Difference: $0.55
If PSQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Hold (3) -

In an initial response to Rio Tinto's quarterly production update, Ord Minnett has spotted an okay volume in iron ore shipments, though at the low end of guidance, but at a softer-than-expected price.

Not making matters any more positive, the performance for all other divisions has been labeled as "soft". Ord Minnett observes closure provisions have increased, impacting earnings with a -$400m pre-tax charge.

Post today's update, market consensus forecasts are expected to reset lower. Hold. Target $100.

Target price is $100.00 Current Price is $96.01 Difference: $3.99
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $115.50, suggesting upside of 23.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SFR as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

In reviewing its base metals coverage and marking to market its current forecasts, Credit Suisse reiterates it anticipates copper and nickel prices to fall as the market is oversupplied, predicting copper prices could decline to pre-covid levels.

The broker raised concerns around Sandfire Resources's cash generation, and ability to service debt in the next 6-12 months, and believes the company is likely to suffer funding challenges if commodity prices continue to decline.

The rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral and the target price decreases to $2.70 from $6.10.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $3.81 Difference: minus $1.11 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.13, suggesting upside of 67.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

With Santos' shares retracing recently, alongside a higher for longer gas price outlook, Citi now sees a stronger valuation case for the stock. 

The broker has lifted its gas price expectations, driving its net profit forecasts up 24% and 72% for 2022 and 2023, anticipating production will remain as forecast but ongoing supply restrictions will continue to support elevated pricing. 

The rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral and the target price increases to $8.60 from $8.31.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $6.98 Difference: $1.62
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.75, suggesting upside of 39.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TLS as Buy (1) -

With no clear potential M&A targets and dividend increases limited by franking credits, Ord Minnett suggests Telstra is well placed to initiate a capital return to shareholders. It's estimated more than $3bn could be returned to shareholders by FY25, in addition to dividends.

The broker points out the company no longer needs to deleverage (as was required in the past) to maintain its debt servicing ratio, now that earnings (EBITDA) are growing. It's also noted options are being pursued for further infrastructure asset sales.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $3.93 Difference: $0.72
If TLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.46, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WAF as Outperform (1) -

West African Resources' June quarter production was 8% better than Macquarie's forecast and costs 2% better. Both underground and open pit grades were the key positive which more than offset a slight reduction in recoveries, the broker notes.

The miner anticipates its Kiaka feasibility study will be released by the middle of this quarter, which Macquarie suggests presents a key longer-term catalyst.

Outperform and $1.50 target retained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.22 Difference: $0.28
If WAF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WTC as Neutral (3) -

WiseTech Global has released a trading update today and the share price responded positively. Citi analysts, upon initial assessment, believe better-than-anticipated revenue guidance is the key positive from today's update, given market concerns about slowing freight volumes.

Management at the company also upgraded EBITDA guidance but Citi sees this more in relation to slower headcount growth. Ongoing cost reduction should offset ongoing cost growth, the analysts surmise.

Citi maintains WiseTech Global's growth outlook looks durable, but it's the valuation that keeps the broker on Neutral. The current share price represents a revenue multiple of 18x on FY23 forecast, point out the analysts.

Target price is $46.35.

Target price is $46.35 Current Price is $42.67 Difference: $3.68
If WTC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $48.34, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources