Australian Broker Call

Citi rates AHY as Buy (1) -

In an initial response to Asaleo Care's H1 release, Citi analysts predict market consensus will shift a little higher on continued strong momentum in sales.

Higher than expected inventories are seen as a negative, as is the fact that marketing spending has been delayed and costs are still rising.

The broker notes the company has retained its $84-87m EBITDA guidance for FY20, but does expect it to be at the upper end of the range.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.96 Difference: $0.34
If AHY meets the Citi target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.19, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AHY as Neutral (3) -

Upon initial assessment, Macquarie observes Asaleo Care's H1 performance beat its forecast by some 10%. FY20 guidance is expected to come out near the top of management's guidance range.

No dividend was declared as the company is focused on reducing debt, Macquarie sticks with its Neutral rating.

Target price is $1.02 Current Price is $0.96 Difference: $0.06
If AHY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.19, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALU as Neutral (3) -

FY20 results were ahead of Citi's estimates, primarily because of an FX gain and a pandemic stimulus benefit. The broker continues to believe the outlook is firm, driven by market share gains along with monetisation of the non-paying user base and the PCB value chain.

With management re-basing the revenue outlook, Citi lowers revenue forecasts to growth of 8% in FY21 and 15% in FY22. Neutral maintained. Target reduced to $34.60 from $35.50.

Target price is $34.60 Current Price is $33.92 Difference: $0.68
If ALU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALU as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Altium's FY20 earnings beat Macquarie's forecasts by a nose, thanks to improved margins on in-line revenue, but forward estimates disappointed.

The broker notes strong subscriber growth in response to heavy discounting in the June quarter.

Revenue and subscriber guidance is maintained out to 2025 but company management has pushed out the timeline by six to 12 months. The goal remains to shift from a licence model toward SaaS, and to graduate from software to a platform.

Earnings per share forecasts rise 1% in FY21; fall -10%, -13% and -8% in FY22, FY23 and FY24; and rise 1% in FY25.

Target price rises 2.9% to $35 after removing the -5% covid-discount. Neutral rating retained, to reflect virus uncertainty. 

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $33.92 Difference: $1.08
If ALU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALU as Overweight (1) -

FY20 numbers were largely pre-announced. Morgan Stanley notes the net cash position is strong.

The guidance range for revenue in FY21 is US$200-212m, lower than expected, while the range for operating earnings (EBITDA) of US$76-89m is within the expected range.

The company's aspirational targets were reiterated for revenue of US$500m, 100,000 subscribers and margins of over 45%.

Morgan Stanley expects a strong net cash position will emerge despite the headwinds of the Covid-19. Overweight rating and $40 target retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $33.92 Difference: $6.08
If ALU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALU as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Yesterday, Ord Minnett had placed its Lighten rating under review (see Report yesterday). Today, that review has led to an upgrade to Hold.

The broker explains that while Altium's operational (EBITDA) performance proved slightly better-than-expected, management's projections out to FY25 imply a slower growth rate, and that was exactly why the Lighten rating had been put in place.

Even with the updated FY25 revenue mid-point of $429m circa -14% below the prior $500m target, Ord Minnett observes investors have chosen to look through the downgrade.

Target price lifts to $31.15 from $29.50.

Target price is $31.15 Current Price is $33.92 Difference: minus $2.77 (current price is over target).
If ALU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALU as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes while Altium remains a high-quality, long term structural growth story, the company's FY20 result has pushed UBS's forecasts 12-18 months behind prior expectations.

The company expects no major shift to term-based licenses. Recurring revenue is expected to be 80% of FY25 versus 60% in FY20.  

UBS reaffirms its Neutral rating with the target price decreasing to $36 from $37.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $33.92 Difference: $2.08
If ALU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AQG as Neutral (3) -

Alacer Gold's second-quarter operational result disappointed the broker, production falling -7% short of forecasts, and all-in sustainable costs rising 6%.

Macquarie says net profit also took a hit as costs rose and sales decreased, revenue falling -US$32m short of its US$131m forecast. Cash was in line.

Broker cuts EPS forecasts -12% for CY20 and less than -1% thereafter.

Neutral rating retained, the broker believing the company has the operational and financial capacity to weather the storm. Target price steady at $9.40.

Target price is $9.40 Current Price is $8.98 Difference: $0.42
If AQG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.70, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AQR as Accumulate (2) -

APN Convenience Retail has today released its FY20 performance report and Ord Minnett, upon initial assessment, believes the result itself yet again demonstrates the resilience of the portfolio.

The FY21 outlook, on the other hand, proved slightly below market consensus and the broker's forecast.

Target price is $3.72 Current Price is $3.70 Difference: $0.02
If AQR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ARB as Neutral (3) -

In initial response to today's released trading update and FY21 guidance by ARB Corp, Macquarie analysts note momentum remains strong but the company has problems fulfilling orders.

Record sales months in June & July underpin a record order book and positive outlook in 1H21, suggests the broker.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $21.89 Difference: minus $2.89 (current price is over target).
If ARB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.39, suggesting downside of -20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BEN as Neutral (3) -

FY20 results were surprisingly weak in Citi's view, as costs blew out. The bank is continuing with its large transformation plan despite the impact of the pandemic.

The broker suspects more resources will be required to assist with pending customer loan stress and defaults. A High Risk is added to the Neutral rating. Target is $7.25.

Target price is $7.25 Current Price is $6.54 Difference: $0.71
If BEN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.38, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BEN as Neutral (3) -

Higher-than-expected costs growth in the second half, in addition to commentary regarding a difficult market, leads Credit Suisse to believe FY21 will also experience higher costs and the benefits of the cost reduction program are likely only in FY22.

A decision to defer a final dividend is likely to create further uncertainty, in the broker's view. Credit Suisse maintains a Neutral rating and $7 target.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.54 Difference: $0.46
If BEN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.38, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BEN as Underperform (5) -

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank's second-half result fell -7% short of Macquarie's forecasts, due mainly to higher covid-induced expenses and business investment.

A rise in impairments caused common equity tier-1 capital to decrease -55bps to 9.25% from 9.8%. Elsewhere, results were mixed as non-interest income declined, margins contracted, and the balance sheet posted strong growth.

The broker spies downside risk to dividends, believing net profit after tax was overstated by 10% relative to its core capital generation.

FY21-FY23 EPS estimates are cut -0-5% across the period to reflect dilution, margin adjustments, non-interest income and expense forecasts. Target price falls to $6 from $6.25. Underperform rating retained, given the bank is trading at a 2% premium to peers.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $6.54 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.38, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BEN as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley believes the company's growth and transformation strategy will be difficult to execute in the current environment. It involves significant up-front investment and a push for market share at a time when returns in retail banking are falling.

Despite the pressure on non-interest income, the second half revenue was broadly in line with expectations and the margin decline proved less than expected.

The second half dividend was deferred because of uncertainty. Over the next three years the broker assumes a pay-out ratio of 60-65% and an annual dividend of 40-44c.

Morgan Stanley assesses downside risk to guidance - which anticipates first half margins to be slightly down - expecting margin contraction will continue in FY22.

Underweight retained. Target is reduced to $6.10 from $6.40. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $6.54 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.38, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BEN as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

FY20 net profit was below Ord Minnett's forecasts. Costs rose 10% half-on-half in the second half. The broker upgraded in June, predicated on evidence of an improving funding cost environment and a defensive book mix that should limit the downside on impairment expenses.

Since then, developments have moved against this view and the rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate. Ord Minnett reduces net profit estimates by -10% for FY21 and -12% for FY22. Target is reduced to $6.70 from $8.10.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $6.54 Difference: $0.16
If BEN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.38, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BEN as Neutral (3) -

UBS observes Bendigo and Adelaide Bank delivered a soft second half result with a return on equity (ROE) of just 3%. No final dividend was announced.

With the bank's consumer banking revenue per customer less than half of its major peers, the broker thinks the bank needs more revenue per customer and not more customers.

The regional lender has considerable exposure to Victoria and SMEs and the broker expects next year to be challenging.

UBS retains its Neutral rating with a target price of $6.50.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.54 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.38, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

First glance commentary from Macquarie suggests BHP Group's release today of FY20 financials broadly met expectations -described as "solid"- while guidance for the year ahead is equally in-line.

The broker notes the final dividend was lifted above the minimum 50% payout ratio but the total payment of US$1.20 was nevertheless slightly below Macquarie's expectation.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $39.86 Difference: minus $0.86 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $39.09, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BPT as Neutral (3) -

Underlying FY20 net profit beat Citi's estimates. The near-term production outlook is lower but, according to the updated five-year plan, by FY24 production will be largely in line with prior disclosures.

The balance sheet is expected to remain net cash, assuming a US$40/bbl price for oil. Citi suspects acquisitions will remain in focus, such as Perth Basin consolidation. Neutral/High Risk rating retained. Target is $1.76.

Target price is $1.76 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: $0.18
If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.88, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BPT as Outperform (1) -

FY20 earnings were in line with Credit Suisse estimates. Beach Energy provided a positive update, with the new Otway rig contract enabling the de-risking of production. Credit Suisse notes a lack of clarity on the outlook has weighed going into the update.

The Waitsia deal and an upgrade to reserves largely outweighed the miss to production estimates in the outlook. Credit Suisse notes the new five-year outlook means a production hit over the short term while an increase is likely in the long-term.

The broker maintains an Outperform rating and believes market pessimism towards the stock has been overstated. Target is raised to $1.96 from $1.80.

Target price is $1.96 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: $0.38
If BPT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.88, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BPT as Neutral (3) -

Beach Energy's FY20 result slightly outpaced the broker.

Macquarie says the real story was management's decision to cut its 5-year free-cash-flow outlook to a more comfortable level. Cost guidance also improved, thanks to a -30%-plus cut in capital expenditure plans and strong cost control.

The company guides to 10% gearing through the five-year forecast period, raising the prospect of merger and acquisition activity.

Production forecasts rise to reflect rising Waitsia production and stronger Otway utilisation. 

Broker cuts EPS forecasts -6.9% for FY21 and -0.5% for FY22, and raises them 14% and 43% for FY23-FY25 to reflect increased production rates. 

Target price lifts 13% to $1.75 to reflect a doubling of the Waitsia project size and higher reserve replacement on top of lower declines at Western Flank oil. Neutral rating retained given Waitsia agreement is still not binding and given low visibility on Otway drilling.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: $0.17
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.88, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BPT as Equal-weight (3) -

FY20 financials were better than Morgan Stanley expected. FY21 guidance is for production of 26-28mmboe. Capital expenditure guidance has been lowered to $650-750m.

Beach Energy has highlighted higher FY22 capital expenditure, close to $1bn, because of the timing of Otway drilling and WA gas. The company has indicated more work is required to value the Western Australian opportunity.

Morgan Stanley suspects the closing of a deal with North West Shelf could be a transition point for a better performance in the share price, although commodity prices probably need to lift from current levels.

Morgan Stanley maintains its Equal-weight rating with a target price of $1.50. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.88, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BPT as Add (1) -

Beach Energy's FY20 underlying net profit of $416m was in-line with Morgans forecast.

The company announced drilling is planned to commence in the offshore Otway basin in December as well as an investment decision on Waitsia's second stage expansion. 

Morgans continues to see value in the company with significant upside potential that comes from a strong balance sheet to weather weakness in commodity prices.

The announcement of the work done on opening up LNG exports for Waitsia adds upside to the analyst's assumption of simply receiving domestic WA gas prices if LNG prices exceed netback (a measure of an export parity price that a gas supplier can expect to receive for exporting gas)

The Add rating is maintained. The target price is increased to $2.06 from $1.86.

Target price is $2.06 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: $0.48
If BPT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.88, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BPT as Accumulate (2) -

FY20 net profit was ahead of Ord Minnett's forecasts. Beach Energy has updated its production target with growth deferred to prioritise the balance sheet. Attributable oil production is expected to grow 8% to 37-40mmboe by FY25.

Ord Minnett finds a number of reasons to be positive on the stock and projected free cash flow implies $420m every year at a yield of more than 12%. Accumulate rating and $2.25 target retained.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: $0.67
If BPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.88, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BSL as Neutral (3) -

FY20 results were in line with prior guidance. The North Star expansion is on track for commissioning in the second half of FY22. No FY21 guidance was provided, with an update expected at the AGM in November.

Citi expects a recovery in global steel production outside of China is likely to mean iron ore stays at high levels and metallurgical coal prices recover.

Whether steel prices can rise to offset these effects is likely to be dependent on a recovery in demand, and whether this is matched with production.

Neutral rating is maintained. The target price is $13.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $12.35 Difference: $0.65
If BSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.22, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BSL as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse found BlueScope Steel's result "clean" and ahead of expectations on earnings and the dividend. No explicit guidance was provided although North Star utilisation has been restored to 100%.

The broker observes US spreads are unsustainably low and economic rationalism suggests these will rise in time. Credit Suisse retains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $13.60 from $12.80.

Target price is $13.60 Current Price is $12.35 Difference: $1.25
If BSL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.22, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BSL as Outperform (1) -

BlueScope Steel's FY20 result slightly outpaced consensus, as underlying earnings fell -58% in line with pre-released figures.

Macquarie says Australian Steel Production and Building Products were the highlights; while residential construction demand proved resilient; and lower steel feed prices and the regional cost program benefited margins.

The balance sheet is solid, the company boasting cash of $509m and liquidity of $3.1bn.

North Star disappointed the broker, but not a bad outcome given the circumstances; and BlueScope will be restructuring NZ operations at a cost of -$30-$50m.

No guidance was forthcoming. Target price is steady at $13.50. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $12.35 Difference: $1.15
If BSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.22, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BSL as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley found the results commendable, given difficult markets. Earnings (EBIT) were in line with prior guidance and the broker's estimates.

Conditions appear to be gradually improving and Morgan Stanley upgrades to Equal-weight from Underweight. No first half guidance was provided because of the high level of uncertainty.

Target is raised to $11.50 from $10.00. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $12.35 Difference: minus $0.85 (current price is over target).
If BSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.22, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BSL as Accumulate (2) -

FY20 net profit was in line with Ord Minnett's forecasts. No guidance was provided, although as of mid August domestic dispatch rates were at similar levels to the second half. North Star was also almost at full capacity.

Ord Minnett observes BlueScope Steel continues to offer investors an improved earnings profile and a dominant position in the Australian market as well as growth via North Star. Accumulate rating retained. Target rises to $15.40 from $15.00.

Target price is $15.40 Current Price is $12.35 Difference: $3.05
If BSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.22, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BSL as Neutral (3) -

FY20 ended on a strong note for BlueScope Steel, observes UBS, but is not enough to alleviate the broker’s concerns regarding steel prices which are at a four-year low.

Blast furnaces have restarted despite weak prices and demand and the broker fears this could keep the market in surplus for longer.

Neutral rating is maintained. Target is raised to $12.30 from $11.80.

Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $12.35 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If BSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.22, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COH as Outperform (1) -

Upon initial assessment, Macquarie summarises Cochlear's FY20 release as follows: revenues from cochlear implants were 18% ahead of forecasts  (8% ahead of consensus), driving better than expected revenue, gross profit and earnings.

On this basis, Macquarie believes the outlook looks positive. Outperform rating retained. The broker also believes Cochlear will continue grabbing market share.

Target price is $208.50 Current Price is $198.30 Difference: $10.2
If COH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $187.04, suggesting downside of -14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COH as Lighten (4) -

Upon initial assessment, Ord Minnett believes Cochlear's (underlying) profit performance beat market consensus, though its own estimate has not been met.

The company reported an unexpected loss, but that's due to a court case over intellectual property, explains the broker.

Overall, Ord Minnett expects investors to focus on the recovery pathway rather than the FY20 results. No guidance was provided,

Target price is $165.00 Current Price is $198.30 Difference: minus $33.3 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $187.04, suggesting downside of -14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates COL as Buy (1) -

Upon initial assessment, it seems Coles' FY20 performance didn't quite meet Citi's expectations, missing by some -4%. The declared dividend is believed in-line with market consensus.

Coles outlook consists of both better sales momentum and elevated costs, point out the analysts.

Citi has decided it will stick with its Buy rating and the $21.40 target price.

Target price is $21.40 Current Price is $18.93 Difference: $2.47
If COL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.19, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COL as Accumulate (2) -

Upon first glance, Coles Group's FY20 has disappointed through higher sales (predominantly for food) being matched with higher costs, so there is no margin expansion with the good times.

Ord Minnett also finds the dividend is a slight miss. The broker notes in the first 6 weeks of 1Q21, Food LFL (like-for-like) sales have remained broadly consistent with the levels achieved in 2H20 (10.0%).

Target price is $19.50 Current Price is $18.93 Difference: $0.57
If COL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.19, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FPH as Outperform (1) -

In an initial response to today's trading update, Macquarie analysts note the company's FY21 guidance is some 3% above market consensus forecasts.

Macquarie is of the intent to maintain a positive bias heading into the full-year results, arguing guidance could still prove conservative.

Current Price is $31.84. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GWA as Neutral (3) -

The construction outlook is expected to deteriorate further as new residential slows and renovation follows this down in FY21. Citi suspects GWA Group will find it difficult to grow revenue and earnings over the next two years.

FY21 estimates are downgraded by -13% to reflect the earnings miss in the FY20 result. There is also a lack of repeating cost reductions heading into FY21. Neutral rating retained. Target is reduced to $2.60 from $2.90.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.47 Difference: $0.13
If GWA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.62, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates GWA as Outperform (1) -

FY20 earnings (EBIT) were below expectations. There appeared to Credit Suisse to be no material uplift from home improvement trends.

In addition, the broker was not expecting the company to reinstate its dividend reinvestment plan, given assurances the balance sheet was strong. Credit Suisse estimates a decline of -3% in FY21 revenue.

Outperform rating retained. Target is reduced to $2.85 from $3.05.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.47 Difference: $0.38
If GWA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.62, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GWA as Neutral (3) -

GWA Group's FY20 earnings fell well short of Macquarie and consensus forecasts, down -10%.

All market segments took an earnings hit, but the company retained market share, and the broker describes it as a solid result in the circumstances.

The balance sheet remains strong, the company carrying net debt of $145m; 1.9x leverage; the $33m facility remaining undrawn; and strong cash flow supporting the dividend payout.

Trading conditions deteriorated in the detached housing market, and the company is observing a shift from larger renovations to smaller do-it-yourself replacements and upgrades.

No guidance was forthcoming and the outlook remains uncertain given the covid-19 situation. But trading was positive across all markets in July.

Macquarie cuts EPS forecasts -9% to -14% in FY21 and FY22. Target price falls -10% to $2.60 from $2.90. Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.47 Difference: $0.13
If GWA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.62, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GWA as Hold (3) -

GWA Group's FY20 result was broadly in-line with Morgans expectations but below Bloomberg consensus forecasts.

The broker highlights some key positives including cost out and the Methven synergy benefits remain on track. However, covid-19 had an adverse impact on all regions and forward visibility remains limited.

Management expects conditions to remain challenging in FY21 due to weak construction markets further exacerbated by pandemic uncertainty in all regions. Accordingly, the broker lowers FY21 underlying earnings (EBIT) by -13% and underlying profit (NPAT) by -16%.

The Hold rating is maintained. The target price is decreased to $2.43 from $2.80.

Target price is $2.43 Current Price is $2.47 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If GWA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.62, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IMD as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Imdex's FY20 operating income beat UBS's forecast. The broker highlights a strong start to FY21 with tools to hire exceeding last year. Progressive recovery is expected across FY21 and FY22.

Earnings growth forecasts downgraded by -3-7% for FY21-23 driven by higher D&A charges which offset operational upgrades of 3-11% across FY21-23.

The broker downgrades its rating to Neutral from Buy with the target price increasing to $1.45 from $1.30.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.42 Difference: $0.03
If IMD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JBH as Sell (5) -

FY20 results were hard to fault, Citi notes. Cost control was critical to the margin expansion in the second half.

However, momentum has likely peaked in July. The broker forecasts first half like-for-like sales growth of 14% for JB Hi-Fi and 12% for The Good Guys before slowing and turning negative in the second half.

The broker anticipates greater upside in Harvey Norman ((HVN)). Sell rating retained. Target rises to $44.80 from $42.00.

Target price is $44.80 Current Price is $49.60 Difference: minus $4.8 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $46.65, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates JBH as Neutral (3) -

FY20 results were marginally ahead of upgraded guidance. Credit Suisse upgrades forecasts for the first half of FY21 but does not believe consumer expenditure will hold up into 2021, as various income support measures will fall away and unemployment is stubbornly high.

The broker also suspects the closure of competitor stores at various times during the second half helped sales revenue. Growth in online sales contributed nearly a quarter of the sales growth in the second half.

Neutral rating retained. Target rises to $47.37 from $42.71.

Target price is $47.37 Current Price is $49.60 Difference: minus $2.23 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $46.65, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JBH as Neutral (3) -

As Macquarie expected, JB Hi-Fi produced a cracker result for FY20, and posted strong sales in July, as money from early super access and government fiscal support for retailers poured into the coffers.

Like for like sales for JB Hi-Fi rose 44% in July, and 40% for The Good Guys. Cost of doing business improved, yielding an uptick in margins. 

The broker pegs risk to the upside given government support but remains cautious on discretionary retailers given the lockdown situation and the potential alignment of spending with the underlying economic reality.

Macquarie increases EPS forecasts 6.9% across FY21, FY22 and FY23. Target price is $48.80. Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $48.80 Current Price is $49.60 Difference: minus $0.8 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $46.65, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JBH as Equal-weight (3) -

FY20 results were in line with prior guidance. Morgan Stanley notes trading was exceptionally strong as was cash conversion.

The broker believes the results will be well received, given the ongoing momentum in July/August and exceptional cash performance.

Equal-weight. Target is $38.50. Industry view: Cautious.

[FNArena has received confirmation the price target has subsequently increased to $44 from $38.50]

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $49.60 Difference: minus $5.6 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $46.65, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JBH as Hold (3) -

JB Hi-Fi reported a very strong result, according to Morgans, with significant second half growth due to covid-19 consumer behaviour.

While no FY21 guidance was provided, July trading has accelerated further with JB Aust/The Good Guys sales up greater than 40%, highlights the broker.

The analyst notes strong cash conversion has seen material debt reduction, resulting in $252m of net cash. The company declared a final dividend of 90cps, taking the FY dividend to 189cps.

Morgans raises the question of how much demand has been pulled forward, as the company continues to benefit from recent events, escalated stimulus measures and strong product execution.

Hold rating is maintained. The target price is increased to $45.98 from $39.62.

Target price is $45.98 Current Price is $49.60 Difference: minus $3.62 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $46.65, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JBH as Hold (3) -

FY20 net profit and EBIT were just below Ord Minnett's forecasts. The broker observes FY21 has started well. July was extraordinarily strong.

FY21 earnings estimates are increased by 16% following the results. The broker remains confident consumer discretionary retailers can continue to do well as alternative expenditure items are less available such as recreation, hotels and restaurants.

Yet the strong share price to date reduces valuation support and the broker retains a Hold rating. Target is raised to $48 from $44.

Target price is $48.00 Current Price is $49.60 Difference: minus $1.6 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $46.65, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JBH as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes JB Hi-Fi's FY20 result was strong with net profit ahead of the broker's estimate. Gross margin faltered with an adverse mix offsetting lower promotional intensity. 

The first-quarter FY21 like-for-like sales forecast has been increased by 27% but a significant slowdown is expected in the second quarter driven by a fall in stimulus post-September and a softer macroeconomic backdrop.

With valuation considered to be full, UBS retains its Neutral rating with the target price increased to $47.60 from $44.

Target price is $47.60 Current Price is $49.60 Difference: minus $2 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $46.65, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates KGN as Neutral (3) -

FY20 results were in line with guidance provided in July. Credit Suisse believes, while sales growth is likely to be sustained by household income support, there is less certainty with respect to consumer expenditure after the JobKeeper payments step down in September.

The broker acknowledges the benefits of the structural acceleration in online but believes this is reflected in the share price and retains a Neutral rating. There was no news on possible acquisitions or new expansion opportunities. Target is raised to $19.68 from $19.49.

Target price is $19.68 Current Price is $20.51 Difference: minus $0.83 (current price is over target).
If KGN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates KGN as Neutral (3) -

Kogan’s FY20 result was strong, observes UBS, but expected given the company's July pre-release.

The broker highlights Kogan is a strong business with acquisition opportunities, superior data capabilities and increased earnings from capital alternative profit streams. 

While noting the company is well placed to grow in the medium term, the broker considers the valuation to be fair at current levels and reiterates its Neutral rating with the target price increasing to $21.50 from $21.

Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $20.51 Difference: $0.99
If KGN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LLC as Buy (1) -

FY20 results were slightly below Citi's estimates. No FY21 guidance was provided, consistent with usual practice.

Citi expects a slower recovery from the impact of the pandemic and notes that while the engineering sale has been drawn out it is imminent and this will help shift the market's focus to the core business.

The broker reiterates a Buy rating. Target is reduced to $15.27 from $15.58. Management has highlighted the company is well-placed to double funds under management as its developments are delivered and recurring earnings streams increase.

Target price is $15.27 Current Price is $11.68 Difference: $3.59
If LLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.95, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates LLC as Outperform (1) -

The statutory loss was greater than Credit Suisse estimated for FY20. This was largely because of after-tax provisions associated with the sale of the engineering business and some negative asset revaluations.

The broker expects FY21 will be better as the development workbook is $113bn. There is also potential commercial conversion opportunities.

Credit Suisse notes the capital position is robust but delays the timing of an assumed earnings recovery and revises FY21-22 estimates downward by -11.5-23.6%. Target is reduced to $13.31 from $13.38. Outperform retained.

Target price is $13.31 Current Price is $11.68 Difference: $1.63
If LLC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.95, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LLC as Outperform (1) -

Lendlease Group's FY20 earnings are in-line with the pre-announced FY20 financials, notes Macquarie.

The first half of FY21 is expected to be impacted by covid-19 but improvement will follow in the second half, believes Macquarie. The broker awaits strategy day on August 30 to get more clarity on the medium-term outlook. 

Macquarie retains its Outperform rating while noting uncertainty regarding the final outcome on Melbourne Metro. Target reduces to $13.94 from $14.24.

Target price is $13.94 Current Price is $11.68 Difference: $2.26
If LLC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.95, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LLC as Hold (3) -

FY20 results were marginally better than Ord Minnett expected. The capital position has improved with meaningfully lower gearing. The broker is also encouraged by the willingness of capital to commit to residential rental, which bodes well for the reactivation of projects.

However, the analyst also says the true extent to which Lendlease has been affected by the pandemic remains unclear. Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating and reduces the target to $13.25 from $13.50.

Target price is $13.25 Current Price is $11.68 Difference: $1.57
If LLC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.95, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LLC as Buy (1) -

Lendlease Group's FY20 core net profit was less than UBS's forecast but the broker is more interested in the group's engineering sale which looks imminent with exit cost provisions unchanged.

The broker expects FY21 to be much better than FY20 driven by construction improvements and the joint venture with Oil Search ((OSH)). 

Buy rating retained with a target price of $14.00.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $11.68 Difference: $2.32
If LLC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.95, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LYC as Buy (1) -

Lynas Corp will be raising about $425m equity to fund its restructure to move front processing to Australia from Malaysia. UBS considers this a good move but notes the size of the raising is larger than expected. 

The broker considers the company's exposure to growing electric vehicle demand and the realigning of its global supply chain outside China as favourable. 

Buy rating maintained. Target price increased to $3 from 2.80.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.61 Difference: $0.39
If LYC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MAI as Add (1) -

Mainstream Group Holdings' FY20 result was slightly above consensus expectations for revenue and EBITDA, but below for NPAT, according to Morgans.

The broker views the performance as resilient and highlights a strong second half EBITDA margin, the US business becoming profitable and funds under administration (FUM) growing 14% on the previous corresponding period.

Management provided FY21 guidance of around $65m of revenue and circa $11.5m of EBITDA, which the analyst sees as conservative.

A final dividend of 1cps was declared.

Morgans reiterates the company is too cheap for its long-term growth profile.

The Add rating is maintained. The target price is increased to $0.83 from $0.74.

Target price is $0.83 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: $0.14
If MAI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MCR as Outperform (1) -

Mincor Resources has upgraded the reserve for the Cassini main deposit by 17%. Macquarie notes Cassini is the mainstay of production for the company and accounts for 60% of the broker's total mining inventory over the next six years.

The upgrade is considered an important de-risking step for the company, with the broker commenting the entire inventory in the definitive feasibility study is now contained in reserves.

The success from the exploration suggests further reserve upside, adds the broker. The broker retains its Outperform rating with a target price of $1.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $0.26
If MCR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MND as Lighten (4) -

In initial commentary following today's release of FY20 financials, Ord Minnett comments Monadelphous is moving into FY21 with a solid workload. The result itself is labeled a "beat" on revenues.

No guidance because there is too much uncertainty and project delays are happening across the globe, but company management remains confident about ongoing spending and workflow for the sector for years ahead, points out the broker.

Ord Minnett equally highlights cash conversion in the period was strong at 137%.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.45 Difference: $1.55
If MND meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.53, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TLS as Hold (3) -

Following clarification on Telstra’s depreciation and amortisation (D&A) policy, Morgans upgrades FY21-FY23 dividend forecasts to 14 cents from 12 cents.

The company’s FY21 guidance is for around -$300m decrease in D&A.

Lowering D&A forecasts allows the broker to increase EPS forecasts by 15% and DPS by a similar amount.

The Hold rating and $3.21 price target are unchanged.

Target price is $3.21 Current Price is $3.05 Difference: $0.16
If TLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.45, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TYR as Underperform (5) -

Today's FY20 release marked a "miss", according to Macquarie's at first glance assessment, with lower-than-expected margins to blame. Some of the items had been pre-released.

The importance of Jobkeeper for the company has been highlighted too.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $3.41 Difference: minus $0.76 (current price is over target).
If TYR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.60, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates VEA as Neutral (3) -

The first half result was pre-released. The main news, Credit Suisse notes, are the proposed $530m capital management initiatives. The broker is somewhat bearish when it comes to the outlook for retail margins.

Still, the proposed capital return should support the stock in the near term, suggest the analysts. A slow improvement in profit drivers is expected through 2020-21. Neutral retained. Target is reduced to $1.67 from $1.74.

Target price is $1.67 Current Price is $1.81 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If VEA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting upside of 22.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VEA as Overweight (1) -

Viva Energy will return $530m of capital to shareholders. $100m of capital is to be returned as a later date. Morgan Stanley notes this is consistent with previous plans.

Meanwhile, first half operating earnings (EBITDA) were in line with estimates. Retail fuel margins have compensated for lower volumes in 2020.

The catalysts going forward include clarity on the Geelong energy hub, retail fuel margins and whether refining margins will improve, according to the analysts. There is also the prospect of an update on government discussions to store more refined product in Australia.

Overweight retained. Target rises to $2.55 from $2.40. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $1.81 Difference: $0.74
If VEA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting upside of 22.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VEA as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Viva Energy Group posted a relatively good first half result, according to Morgans. The analyst states retail was close to estimates, commercial impressed and refining again dragged.

The broker highlights the outlook for the refining business remains uncertain.

The company will distribute most of the Viva Energy REIT sale proceeds (around $530m) to shareholders through a capital return of 21.46cps and special dividend of 5.94cps.

Following recent share price strength, the rating is decreased to Hold from Add. The target price is decreased to $1.95 from $2.00.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.81 Difference: $0.14
If VEA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting upside of 22.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VEA as Accumulate (2) -

First half net profit was below Ord Minnett's forecasts albeit within guidance. Refining earnings were below guidance and the broker notes the industry remains challenged.

Capital management progresses, with a special dividend of $150m announced alongside a share consolidation. The broker considers the valuation is now supportive and retains an Accumulate rating. Target rises to $2.20 from $2.00.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.81 Difference: $0.39
If VEA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting upside of 22.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VEA as Buy (1) -

Viva Energy Group's first-half result was in-line with low refiner margins offsetting cost savings. UBS expects operating income (ex-refining) to recover but thinks retail and commerce will likely take 12-18 months to return to pre-covid levels.

The group's decision to return proceeds from Viva Eenrgy REIT's sale to the shareholders gives comfort to the broker on the resilience of the balance sheet.

Expecting capital returns in the short term and recovering fuel volumes in the medium term, UBS maintains its Buy rating. Target decreases to $2.15 from $2.30.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.81 Difference: $0.34
If VEA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting upside of 22.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WBC as Neutral (3) -

In an early assessment of today's Q3FY20 trading update by Westpac, Macquarie analysts question how the share price can be expected to re-rate when softer margins, a higher impairment charge, and a lower capital position all remain prominently on the menu?

Westpac shares look relatively cheaper than peers, the analysts observe, but then trends at the bank look worse too. Macquarie does think there is an element of "timing" in play and peers are likely to exhibit similar trends in the not too far off future.

At the headline, Macquarie finds the result would have missed most forecasts.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $17.59 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.23, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WPL as Neutral (3) -

Woodside Petroleum has pre-emptied the Lukoil acquisition of a 40% stake in the Senegal Sangomar project. Other joint-venture partners have a right for pre-emption, which if exercised would proportionally dilute the amount of equity Woodside could acquire.

Citi assesses the balance sheet can absorb a higher working interest in Senegal and still be able to fund Scarborough/Pluto-2. Sangomar is due to come online in 2023 and should provide a significant benefit to cash flow before the Burrup hub expenditure erodes credit metrics.

The broker expects the company's share of Sangomar will be partially farmed down. Neutral rating and $21.38 target retained.

Target price is $21.38 Current Price is $20.37 Difference: $1.01
If WPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.67, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WPL as Outperform (1) -

Woodside Petroleum has pre-empted Cairn Energy's 40% stake sale in Senegal oil project (agreed with the Russian oil company Lukoil) for -US$300m upfront with a further up to -US$100m at first oil. 

The broker considers this step to be very logical and has reduced its earnings forecasts for FY20-22 to reflect the funding of the increased stake in Senegal.

The Outperform rating is maintained. The target price is increased to $24.70 from $23.95.

Target price is $24.70 Current Price is $20.37 Difference: $4.33
If WPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.67, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WPL as Hold (3) -

Woodside Petroleum has triggered the pre-emptive option on the sale of partner Cairn Energy's stake in its Senegal interests.

The transaction will increase the company's Sangomar interest to 68% from 35%, while remaining the operator. Morgans views it as a value-accretive move that prevents possible US sanctions from what would have been the entry of Russian energy company Lukoil into the joint venture.

The company will pay -US$300m upfront, with a -US$100m contingent payment linked to an oil price and development timeline.

The Hold rating is maintained. The target price is increased to $23.40 from $22.35.

Target price is $23.40 Current Price is $20.37 Difference: $3.03
If WPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.67, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WPL as Buy (1) -

Woodside Petroleum will exercise pre-emptive rights and pay -US$400m to buy an additional 33% stake in the Sangomar joint venture. Ord Minnett estimates the transaction is modestly accretive.

While the likelihood of Woodside raising additional equity has increased, the broker suspects this could be dependent on divestments or the timing of the Browse development. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $25.00 from $25.70.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $20.37 Difference: $4.63
If WPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.67, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources