Daily Market Reports | Feb 15 2023
This story features SIMS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SGM
World Overnight | |||
SPI Overnight | 7366.00 | + 8.00 | 0.11% |
S&P ASX 200 | 7430.90 | + 13.10 | 0.18% |
S&P500 | 4136.13 | – 1.16 | – 0.03% |
Nasdaq Comp | 11960.15 | + 68.36 | 0.57% |
DJIA | 34089.27 | – 156.66 | – 0.46% |
S&P500 VIX | 18.91 | – 1.43 | – 7.03% |
US 10-year yield | 3.76 | + 0.04 | 1.18% |
USD Index | 103.26 | – 0.09 | – 0.09% |
FTSE100 | 7953.85 | + 6.25 | 0.08% |
DAX30 | 15380.56 | – 16.78 | – 0.11% |
By Greg Peel
Paradise Lost
Monday night strength on Wall Street ahead of last night’s US CPI result had the ASX200 shooting up an exuberant 59 points in the first half hour yesterday morning, before the humans took over. There followed an orderly slide back to a close of only up 13.
We could cite one or more of three reasons why the loss of momentum.
US investors may have been brimming with optimism on Monday night but Australian investors were more cautious ahead of the critical US release. The day’s earnings results netted out to the negative. There were mixed messages stemming from the business and consumer confidence surveys released yesterday, with consumers crawling into their caves.
Winning on results were Sims ((SGM)), up 7.1%, and Challenger ((CGF)), up 4.4%, while Ansell ((ANN)) dropped -8.7%, Breville Group ((BRG)) -4.7% and James Hardie ((JHX)) -4.4%.
Outside of the index, SG Fleet ((SGF)) jumped 9.1% and Temple & Webster ((TPW)) crashed -26.9%.
NAB’s business survey for January showed a 5 point jump in the conditions index to a comfortable +18 and a 6 point jump in confidence to +6 – confidence returned.
The numbers showed increases in both labour/wholesale costs and sales/retail prices, suggesting inflation is being passed on to consumers. ANZ Bank economists point out there was a bit of a bounce-back from the December numbers, and still expect a slowdown in business activity as the year progresses.
Westpac’s consumer survey was a different kettle of fish altogether. This was a February survey, conducted post the last RBA rate hike and warning of more to come.
The consumer confidence index fell to 78.5 from 84.3 in January. The only readings ever recorded below that figure were during recessions. Attitude towards major household purchases fell to the fourth lowest level in 48 years (1974 recession).
Clearly consumers had hoped that the RBA would be calling a pause this month, not the opposite. Hopes were dashed. One might expect these data to reflect poorly on the consumer discretionary sector. But no, it actually rose 0.4% yesterday.
And that includes another -13% drop for Star Entertainment ((SGR)), on top of Monday’s -21%. Such a shame.
Technology (+1.3%) and communication services (+1.2%) were the only big movers yesterday, with other sectors trading more modest ups and downs. Energy, industrials and materials closed lower, and all others higher.
We have some rather telling earnings reports due today, including those from Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)), Fortescue Metals ((FMG)) and Wesfarmers ((WES)), for a nice cross-section.
Wall Street was rather confused by the CPI release last night. Our futures are up one point this morning.
Now What?
US inflation cooled again in January, but not by as much as hoped. The headline CPI fell to 6.4% annual from 6.5% in December, well short of 6.2% forecasts. What does Wall Street do with this information?
The Dow rallied 85 points on the open, then fell -420 down by late morning, then rallied back to be down only -50 mid-afternoon, then closed down -150.
In other words, no idea. To the extent that the S&P500 closed flat.
The more pertinent core CPI fell to 5.6% from 5.7%, when 5.5% was forecast. The stock market might have been thoroughly confused but the bond market wasn’t. The US ten-year yield rose 3 points to 3.75% and the two-year – a proxy for the Fed funds rate – rose 9 points to 4.64%.
Don’t fight the Fed.
As Jerome Powell warned recently, there are clear signs of disinflation but mostly in goods. The more “sticky” segments of rents, services and wages are not going to subside in a hurry.
The fall in US headline inflation from over 9% into the 6s has been fairly swift, but the next drop to 3% may be a long haul. “I think there is going to be a lot more inertia, a lot more persistence that maybe we don’t want,” said the Richmond Fed president last night.
Wall Street can now prepare to be confused again tonight, with the release of January retail sales numbers.
Commodities
Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures | |||
Gold (oz) | 1854.70 | + 2.10 | 0.11% |
Silver (oz) | 21.83 | – 0.10 | – 0.46% |
Copper (lb) | 4.08 | + 0.06 | 1.44% |
Aluminium (lb) | 1.19 | – 0.00 | – 0.27% |
Lead (lb) | 0.95 | + 0.00 | 0.19% |
Nickel (lb) | 12.08 | + 0.06 | 0.54% |
Zinc (lb) | 1.42 | + 0.03 | 2.41% |
West Texas Crude | 79.18 | – 0.11 | – 0.14% |
Brent Crude | 85.67 | – 0.23 | – 0.27% |
Iron Ore (t) | 124.20 | + 0.44 | 0.36% |
A bit of life back in base metals but no apparent response to the CPI data. Gold looks like a stunned rabbit as well.
The Aussie is up 0.3% at US$0.6986.
Today
The SPI Overnight closed up one point.
Along with retail sales, the US will see numbers for industrial production, housing market sentiment and the Empire State activity index tonight.
With Wall Street providing no lead, local investors will be unburdened today in assessing results from CBA, Fortescue and Wesfarmers, along with Cochlear ((COH)), Computershare ((CPU)), Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE)), Vicinity Centres ((VCX)) and others.
For a calendar of earnings result releases and a summary of earnings results to date, refer to FNArena's Corporate Results Monitor (https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/reporting_season/)
The Australian share market over the past thirty days…
BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS | |||
ARF | Arena REIT | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
AWC | Alumina Ltd | Upgrade to Lighten from Sell | Ord Minnett |
AZJ | Aurizon Holdings | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
BWP | BWP Trust | Upgrade to Hold from Lighten | Ord Minnett |
CCP | Credit Corp | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie |
CIP | Centuria Industrial REIT | Upgrade to Hold from Lighten | Ord Minnett |
DRR | Deterra Royalties | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Credit Suisse |
Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight | Morgan Stanley | ||
EDV | Endeavour Group | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | UBS | ||
FBU | Fletcher Building | Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight | Morgan Stanley |
HVN | Harvey Norman | Upgrade to Hold from Lighten | Ord Minnett |
ILU | Iluka Resources | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Credit Suisse |
MGR | Mirvac Group | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Credit Suisse |
MIN | Mineral Resources | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Credit Suisse |
NAN | Nanosonics | Upgrade to Hold from Lighten | Ord Minnett |
PRU | Perseus Mining | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Credit Suisse |
PTM | Platinum Asset Management | Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight | Morgan Stanley |
UNI | Universal Store | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
For more detail go to FNArena's Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.
All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website. Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ANN - ANSELL LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BRG - BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CBA - COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CGF - CHALLENGER LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: COH - COCHLEAR LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CPU - COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: FMG - FORTESCUE LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: JHX - JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SGF - SG FLEET GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SGM - SIMS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SGR - STAR ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TPW - TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TWE - TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: VCX - VICINITY CENTRES
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WES - WESFARMERS LIMITED