Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Aug 08, 2022

This story features 4DMEDICAL LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 4DX

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

4DX   5GG   AD8   AIS   AMA (2)   B4P   BCI   CGS   CSS   DSK   DUG   GDF   GOR   IGO   JHG   KED   KZA   MMM   NIC   OBL   QAL   RIO (2)   RMS   SGR   TNE (2)   TSI   UMG (2)   WZR   Z2U  

4DX    4DMEDICAL LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $0.70

Bell Potter rates ((4DX)) as Buy (1) –

Bell Potter assesses 4DMedical in light of a webinar update from expert respiratory physicians in Australia and the USA.

The experts' positive disposition to XV LVAS supported the broker's view of long term growth potential for the technology.

With cash on hand of $51.1m, the next stage will be the research updates in peer reviewed journals from clinical trials in the US and Australia, the broker suggests.

Speculative Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $0.96 from $0.67 due to changes in valuation assumptions.

This report was published on July 29, 2022.

Target price is $0.96 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $0.26
If 4DX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.61.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.77.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

5GG    PENTANET LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $0.37

Bell Potter rates ((5GG)) as Buy (1) –

Pentanet reported 4Q22 trading results with revenue growth slowing in the quarter due to capacity constraints, coming in below Bell Potter's expectations, but still reporting 40% growth for FY22.

Of note the company grew cloud gaming subscribers 44% in 4Q22 and 363.6% for the FY22, which represents some 2% of the Australian OC gamers, highlights the analyst.

Bell Potter is bullish on Pentanet following the commercial launch of the neXus service with 11,000 registrations which is 70% above the existing fixed wireless subscribers.

The broker lowers EPS forecasts by -23.7% and -14.0% in FY22 and FY23 after adjusting for an increase in investment spending.

A Buy rating is retained and the price target is raised to $0.60 from $0.41 due to change in the discounted cashflow model.

This report was published on August 1, 2022.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: $0.23
If 5GG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.21.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 16.82.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AD8    AUDINATE GROUP LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $10.10

Shaw and Partners rates ((AD8)) as Buy (1) –

Audinate Group's FY22 result came in well above Shaw and Partners' expectations, with the company delivering a roughly 20% sales beat at US$33.4m, while earnings of US$3.8-4.3m were a massive beat on the broker's anticipated US$1.0m.

The broker highlights better than expected chip supply in the fourth quarter bolstered results, while noting the company navigated chip restraints better than most through valuable strategic partnerships. 

The broker notes Audinate Group is an early contender for the best reporting small caps tech company for the August reporting season. The Buy rating and target price of $11.75 are retained.

This report was published on July 29, 2022.

Target price is $11.75 Current Price is $10.10 Difference: $1.65
If AD8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 531.58.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 297.06.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AIS    AERIS RESOURCES LIMITED

Industrial Metals – Overnight Price: $0.47

Bell Potter rates ((AIS)) as Buy (1) –

Aeris Resources reported 4Q22 trading results.

Bell Potter points out the Tritton Copper mine benefited from a change in mining strategy and reported  its best quarterly production in FY22, while Crocow showed weak results..

The analyst is upbeat about the company's outlook post the completion of the Round Oak Minerals acquisition and earnings forecasts for FY22 are raised on lower depreciation and amortisation charges.

Buy recommendation retained. Target price rises to $1.33 from $1.22.

This report was published on July 29, 2022.

Target price is $1.33 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.86
If AIS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 183% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 5.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.87.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.80 cents and EPS of 19.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.41.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMA    AMA GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $0.16

Bell Potter rates ((AMA)) as Hold (3) –

AMA Group reported the Appendix 4C for the June quarter.

Bell Potter points out the cashflow was in line with forecasts while the cash on hand was above guidance but marginally below estimates at $52.2m.

The company increased guidance for EBITDA in FY22 by 30% but the analyst is none the wiser for the reasons relating to the upgrade.

Nevertheless Bell Potter has increased the EBITDA forecast by 28% for FY22 on higher margins.

The target is reduced to $0.18 from $0.20 due to changes in the valuation calculation. 

Hold rating maintained.

This report was published on August 1, 2022.

Target price is $0.18 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.02
If AMA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.72.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.52.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Canaccord Genuity rates ((AMA)) as Hold (3) –

AMA Group provided an 4Q22 trading update which Canaccord Genuity considered as positive.

The company upgraded FY23 EBITDA guidance by 30% for FY22 and underlying cashflow improved by $15m, reaching breakeven after adjusting for a $10m one–off pre-payment.

Over May and June the company updated pricing for cost and inflationary pressures, which the broker assesses could impact negatively on up to -25% of business volumes over FY23. 

Canaccord Genuity adjusts FY22 EDITDA forecasts but the valuation remains unchanged with the analyst highlighting the FY23 and FY24 earnings forecasts are at the lower end of AMA Group's guidance.

Hold recommendation and the target price is retained at $0.32.

This report was published on July 29, 2022.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.16
If AMA meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.20.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 16.00.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

B4P    BEFOREPAY GROUP LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $0.56

Shaw and Partners rates ((B4P)) as Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners notes Beforepay Group's strong momentum has continued into the fourth quarter, with the company setting new records across key metrics. 

Revenue more than doubled in the quarter, to $5.3m from $2.2m in the previous comparable period. The broker expects FY23 to continue positively, including a focus on customer growth and increased platform capacity to support. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.50 from $2.00 to account for changes to assumed margins and top-line growth rates.

This report was published on July 29, 2022.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.94
If B4P meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 168% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 38.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.44.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.18.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BCI    BCI MINERALS LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $0.26

Bell Potter rates ((BCI)) as Buy (1) –

BCI Minerals reported June quarter EBITDA of $7.7m on -10% lower sales volume for the Iron Valley operations which was below Bell Potter's expectations.

The future of the company is increasingly tied to the development of the high quality Mardie Salt and SOP project, according to the analyst, with a potential 60-plus years mine life.

With cash on hand of $209m and access to $100m in convertible notes, Bell Potter assesses BCI Minerals has enough funding for the current FY23 development contracts.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.50 from $0.53.

This report was published on July 29, 2022.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.24
If BCI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 92% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 86.67.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 130.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGS    COGSTATE LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $1.83

Bell Potter rates ((CGS)) as Buy (1) –

Cogstate reported 4Q22 and a FY22 update with annual revenues coming in marginally higher than Bell Potter's expectations.

The company benefited from lower operating costs and operating cashflow was also higher than the broker's forecasts.

Around 84% of FY22 revenues were generated in relationship to Alzheimer's Disease, which Bell Potter notes will continue to be a driving factor for earnings.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.15 from $2.05.

This report was published on July 29, 2022.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.83 Difference: $0.32
If CGS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.56.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.13.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSS    CLEAN SEAS SEAFOOD LIMITED

Aquaculture – Overnight Price: $0.57

Bell Potter rates ((CSS)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Clean Seas Seafood reported 4Q22 trading activities report.

Bell Potter points out the positive tone of the update with higher than expected volumes for both the 4Q and FY22, while higher average selling prices led to better operating cashflows.

Forecast EDITDA losses are reduced for FY22 by -33% and EBITDA forecasts are raised by 35% for FY23 on the assumption of higher realised prices.

Buy rating is retained and the price target is lowered to $0.80 from $0.85.

This report was published on July 29, 2022.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.57 Difference: $0.23
If CSS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.66.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.85.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DSK    DUSK GROUP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $2.10

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DSK)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity highlights the trading update from Dusk Group implies the company managed to trade well over the 2H22 and has not been as adversely impacted as anticipated compared to the lockdown earnings boost in the previous year.

The balance sheet supports the dividend expectations while inventories are up 7%, reflecting new stores of 131 compared to 121 in the previous period, observes the analyst.

Canaccord Genuity upgrades earnings forecasts by 12% in FY22 and FY23 which are around the middle of the company's guidance.

Dusk Group is expected to release FY22 results on September 2. The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.30 from $2.05.

This report was published on July 29, 2022.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: $0.2
If DSK meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.24.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.05.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DUG    DUG TECHNOLOGY LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $0.48

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DUG)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity is looking for an improved earnings performance for DUG Technology going into FY23 with growth in revenue from services projects following a 4Q22 trading update.

A slower conversion of new service projects to revenues in the 4Q22 and higher cash burn led the analyst to lower earnings forecasts for FY22 and FY23.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.97 from $1.40.

This report was published on August 1, 2022.

Target price is $0.97 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.49
If DUG meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 102% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.76.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.65.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GDF    GARDA PROPERTY GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.55

Moelis rates ((GDF)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis assesses the FY22 earnings results for Garda Property as in-line with expectations including positive leasing results for a number of sites which are due to be incorporated in FY23.

Garda Property is one of the broker's preferred industrial real estate exposures with growth coming from potential valuation lifts on revised leases for Acacia Ridge and North Lakes and de-gearing of the balance.

A Buy rating is maintained and the price target is adjusted for higher interest rates as per guidance to $2.08 from $2.14.

This report was published on August 1, 2022.

Target price is $2.08 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: $0.53
If GDF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.20 cents and EPS of 7.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.53.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.02.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GOR    GOLD ROAD RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.45

Bell Potter rates ((GOR)) as Buy (1) –

Gold Road Resources' Gruyere Mine June quarter gold production was lower than Bell Potter's expectations.

The analyst notes the ramp up of production from the 50% owned Gruyere mine is going well.

Revenues post November should be lifted by the removal of hedging at Gruyere as well as synergies from the 14.4% stake in DeGrey Mining ((DEG)).

The analyst raises earnings forecasts by 2% and 13% for FY22 and FY23, respectively on the back of higher Australian gold price estimates.

A Buy rating and the price target is lowered to $1.70 from $1.75 due to adjustment in listed investment valuations.

This report was published on July 29, 2022.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $0.25
If GOR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.70, suggesting upside of 17.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 7.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.7, implying annual growth of 132.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.60 cents and EPS of 15.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.1, implying annual growth of 4.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO    IGO LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $11.59

Shaw and Partners rates ((IGO)) as Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners notes IGO's FY22 result has benefited from timely acquisitions meeting price tailwinds, although highlights while earnings appear to have delivered a 5% beat, net profits look to have missed the mark by as much as -15%.

Despite this, the broker describes "high level financials" from the company, noting record sales from Nova caused a sizable skew in profitability to the June quarter.

Group sales revenue of $278m and earnings of $258m in the quarter comprised 30% of the full year result. The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $10.50 from $14.00. 

This report was published on July 29, 2022.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $11.59 Difference: minus $1.09 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.65, suggesting upside of 9.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 21.50 cents and EPS of 60.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.5, implying annual growth of 121.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 82.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 189.3, implying annual growth of 253.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHG    JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $35.20

Bell Potter rates ((JHG)) as Buy (1) –

The Janus Henderson 2Q22 results were worse than even the downgraded expectations held by Bell Potter.

Operations saw a -17% in AUM and operating income came in -7.8%  below the broker's estimates. The US$0.39 dividend was maintained.

The recently installed CEO, Ali Dibadj emphasised the turnaround in performance would take time and he is there to remediate the business not sell it off.

Bell Potter lowers earnings forecasts by -20.3% and -7.2% for FY22 and FY23, respectively. The Buy rating is maintained and the price target is reduced to $43.50 from $45.50.

This report was published on August 1, 2022.

Target price is $43.50 Current Price is $35.20 Difference: $8.3
If JHG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $37.30, suggesting upside of 6.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 263.74 cents and EPS of 302.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 393.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 251.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 238.76 cents and EPS of 360.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 384.0, implying annual growth of -2.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 276.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KED    KEYPATH EDUCATION INTERNATIONAL INC

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $1.20

Shaw and Partners rates ((KED)) as Buy (1) –

Keypath Education International has delivered full year revenue of $118.4m, up 21% year-on-year and a beat to prospectus, but Shaw and Partners notes the results may suggest normalisation is occurring. 

The broker notes Nursing and Health and Social Science program revenue grew 60% and 35% respectively, suggesting a -17% decline to the company's pre-FY19 back book, while enrolments per program declined -6% year-on-year, and revenue per enrolment declined -7%. 

With Keypath investing in its largest vintages and expansion plans, the broker notes normalisation could see deeper cash burn ahead of the company reaching breakeven. The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.70 from $4.10.

This report was published on July 31, 2022.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $1.5
If KED meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 125% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.81.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 11.76.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KZA    KAZIA THERAPEUTICS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.25

Bell Potter rates ((KZA)) as Buy (1) –

Kazia Therapeutics disappointed Bell Potter with the negative announcement that the trial study for the paxalisib arm "did not meet the pre-defined criteria for continuing to the second stage".

However the analyst stressed the trial has not been discontinued and more data will be available from GBM Agile in the second half of 2023.

Earnings forecasts remain unchanged but the price target is slashed to $0.45 from $1.90 as a result of the announcement and the changes in the sector rating.

The Speculative Buy rating is retained.

This report was published on August 1, 2022.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.2
If KZA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 80% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of minus 20.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.22.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of minus 10.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.31.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MMM    MARLEY SPOON AG

Consumer Products & Services – Overnight Price: $0.33

Wilsons rates ((MMM)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons highlighted the 2Q22 Marley Spoon AG results came in above expectations with active subscriber growth and customer growth some 4% above forecasts.

Sales were 14% above Wilsons' forecasts and margins expanded 120bps higher than estimates with price increases, offsetting supply chain problems and cost inflation.

FY22 guidance from Marley Spoon is a full year EBITDA loss of plus -EUR15m with breakeven in the 2H22.

Overweight rating is retained with a $1.26 target price.

This report was published on August 1, 2022.

Target price is $1.26 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: $0.93
If MMM meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 282% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.11 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.93.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 12.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.58.

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NIC    NICKEL INDUSTRIES LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $1.10

Bell Potter rates ((NIC)) as Buy (1) –

Bell Potter highlights Nickel Industries reported 10% better than expected nickel production for the June quarter with a strong result from first quarter production at ANI.

Costs were higher than estimated, up 21% on the quarter from higher electricity and input costs, but Bell Potter considers the outlook  positive with the better production ramp up at ANI and the Oracle Nickel Project.

The analyst reduces earnings forecasts for FY22 by -6% and raises FY23 by 5%. Buy rating while the price target is lifted to $2.08 from $2.00.

This report was published on July 28, 2022.

Target price is $2.08 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.98
If NIC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 89% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.60, suggesting upside of 45.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 6.94 cents and EPS of 16.52 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.66.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 12.49 cents and EPS of 32.48 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.5, implying annual growth of 32.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OBL    OMNI BRIDGEWAY LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $4.24

Goldman Sachs rates ((OBL)) as Buy (1) –

Omni Bridgeway reported a 4Q22 portfolio update and Goldman Sachs highlights cash completions rising $80.5m to a FY22 total of $210.4m with more income yet to be accounted for.

The analyst views the update as a solid result and is positive about the recent debt refinancing which should allow for improved capital management, including possible capital returns or share buybacks in the future.

Earnings forecasts are revised for the updated Estimated Portfolio Value. Buy rating while the target price is lowered to $4.80 from $4.95.

This report was published on July 28, 2022.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.24 Difference: $0.56
If OBL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 60.57.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.64.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QAL    QUALITAS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $2.21

Goldman Sachs rates ((QAL)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs is positive about the ADIA deal for Qualitas with management securing a $700m mandate and a conditional investment in the company.

The analyst views the deal as supporting the Qualitas business and track record in the Australian commercial real estate lending market and considers the stock offers a good exposure to this growing asset class.

The broker's earnings forecasts are increased by 19% and 5% for FY22 and FY23, respectively from the improvement in fund raising and the earnings results will be announced on August 18.

A Buy rating is maintained and the price target is raised to $3.20 from $3.00.

This report was published on August 1, 2022.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.99
If QAL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 7.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.08.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.20 cents and EPS of 8.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.63.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO    RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks – Overnight Price: $97.74

Goldman Sachs rates ((RIO)) as Buy (1) –

Rio Tinto provided 1H22 results update with a beat on net earnings from a 25% tax rate, according to Goldman Sachs.

The dividend of $2.67 per share (50% payout) was lower than the broker expectation of a 75% payout.

With conservative guidance for demand for global commodities, the analyst's earnings forecasts are adjusted by 3% and -4% for FY22 and FY23, post the 1H22 results.

A Buy rating is maintained and Goldman Sachs views the stock as attractively valued despite the near term headwinds from iron and base metal prices.

The price target is lowered to $122.90 from $125.50.

This report was published on July 27, 2022.

Target price is $122.90 Current Price is $97.74 Difference: $25.16
If RIO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $110.36, suggesting upside of 12.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 1166.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1508.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 953.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 1096.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1361.9, implying annual growth of -9.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 921.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Shaw and Partners rates ((RIO)) as Hold (3) –

Rio Tinto reported 1H22 earnings of $8.6bn, marginally better, by 3%, than consensus forecasts notes Shaw and Partners.

The $4.3bn interim dividend announcement was the second highest on record, but below very upbeat market expectations.

The analyst considers the announcement is in-line with the company's 50% payout ratio, so maybe not a "miss" after all?

Shaw and Partners sees potential iron ore headwinds to the share price performance but believes with the appropriate management culture, Rio Tinto can continue on the road to "redemption" after some years of mishaps and diversions including Juukan, Mongolia, by way of example.

A Hold rating and $105.00 price target are retained.

This report was published on July 28, 2022.

Target price is $105.00 Current Price is $97.74 Difference: $7.26
If RIO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $110.36, suggesting upside of 12.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 1595.14 cents and EPS of 1629.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 16.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1508.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 953.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 1230.71 cents and EPS of 1223.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 12.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1361.9, implying annual growth of -9.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 921.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMS    RAMELIUS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.12

Shaw and Partners rates ((RMS)) as Buy (1) –

Despite Ramelius Resources reporting a good June quarter, lifting annual production to 258,600 ounces, Shaw and Partners notes company guidance for the coming FY23 is worse than expected.

With the company guiding to all in sustaining costs of $1,750-1,950 per ounce in the coming year, compared to actual costs of $1,523 per ounce in FY22, the broker downgrades its FY23, FY24 and FY25 earnings forecasts -34%, -27% and -18%.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.50 from $2.35.

This report was published on July 29, 2022.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.12 Difference: $0.38
If RMS meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.21, suggesting upside of 7.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 11.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.4, implying annual growth of -46.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 12.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.2, implying annual growth of -38.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGR    STAR ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $2.90

Goldman Sachs rates ((SGR)) as Neutral (3) –

Star Entertainment provided a trading update for FY22 where revenues were above estimates for Goldman Sachs and consensus forecasts.

The company highlighted both non-gaming and slots revenues were above pre-covid levels, and domestic table revenues are tracking below pre-covid with indications of a pick up in trading momentum in the June quarter and into July.

A delay in the Queen's Wharf Brisbane (QWB) project by 6-months and 10% increase in the development cost on previous forecasts are highlighted.

A Neutral recommendation due to ongoing regulatory reviews, the delays in the QWB project and management changes are weighing on investor sentiment, suggests the broker.

 The target price is reduced to $3.48 from $3.71.

This report was published on July 31, 2022.

Target price is $3.48 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $0.58
If SGR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.54, suggesting upside of 22.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 96.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TNE    TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $12.30

Bell Potter rates ((TNE)) as Buy (1) –

Post a general review of TechnologyOne's fundamentals, Bell Potter has left forecasts unchanged, retaining confidence profits will grow by 14% in FY22, inside the company's guidance of 10-15% growth.

Some adjustments to the valuation methodology have lifted the price target to $14.25 from $12.50. Buy rating retained.

This report was published on August 4, 2022.

Target price is $14.25 Current Price is $12.30 Difference: $1.95
If TNE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.30 cents and EPS of 26.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.59.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.60 cents and EPS of 30.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.07.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Goldman Sachs rates ((TNE)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) –

TechnologyOne's margin expansion is due for a pause, suggests Goldman Sachs, as the company intends to reinvest into the business following cost cuts in FY20 and FY21.

The broker does believe growth will typically measure 10-15% in the years ahead. As recurring revenue now represents circa 75% of annual sales, earnings visibility is high.

Also, earnings are expected to remain resilient in the face of an economic downturn, given clients largely consist of public sector and higher education end markets.

Goldman Sachs downgrades to Neutral from Buy following recent outperformance. Target $13.15.

This report was published on August 4, 2022.

Target price is $13.15 Current Price is $12.30 Difference: $0.85
If TNE meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.31.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.00.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TSI    TOP SHELF INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $1.28

Wilsons rates ((TSI)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons considered the 4Q22 results for Top Shelf International as mixed at best with the main drivers being the whiskey and vodka sales from better inventory to the Coles Liquor Group ((COL)).

The analyst points out Top Shelf International has 2-3 quarters of cash funding available and anticipates the company will secure more debt against the existing whiskey inventory. 

With operating cashflow not forecast to be positive until FY26, Wilsons views additional funding will likely be required in the interim.

An Overweight rating and a revised price target to $1.58 from $1.80.

This report was published on August 1, 2022.

Target price is $1.58 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: $0.3
If TSI meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 30.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.21.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 23.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.40.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UMG    UNITED MALT GROUP LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $3.17

Bell Potter rates ((UMG)) as Buy (1) –

Following yet another disappointing market update, Bell Potter has nevertheless come to the conclusion that the issues plaguing United Malt are most likely cyclical rather than structural.

As this suggests "temporary", if not "transitory", Bell Potter's forecasts imply a serious bounce in EBITDA in FY24.

Buy rating remains in place. Target lowers to $3.95.

This report was published on August 5, 2022.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.17 Difference: $0.78
If UMG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.93, suggesting upside of 24.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 1.50 cents and EPS of 2.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 144.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.5, implying annual growth of 41.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 11.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of 170.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((UMG)) as Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight (3) –

Wilsons couldn't suppress the disappointment in another earnings downgrade from United Malt with the -18% fall due to barley costs, quality issues, transportation issues and energy costs.

The broker raises concerns over management's ability to assess the operating environment in a timely manner as well as the elevated debt levels.

Equally, Wilsons highlights the FY23  guidance of "normal" earnings (below pre-covid levels) downgrading the earnings forecasts and opting for more conservative dividend payout ratios of 25-40%.

Accordingly the recommendation is reduced to Market Weight from Overweight. The price target is lowered to $3.01 from $4.36.

This report was published on August 2, 2022.

Target price is $3.01 Current Price is $3.17 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If UMG meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.93, suggesting upside of 24.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 1.50 cents and EPS of 5.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.5, implying annual growth of 41.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 14.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of 170.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WZR    WISR LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.08

Wilsons rates ((WZR)) as Overweight (1) –

Wisr provided 4Q22 trading update which reflected a miss on revenue and EBITDA from the mixed loan composition and the slower than anticipated rise in yields, according to Wilsons.

The analyst points to Wisr using competitive pricing to attract better quality clients for automotive loans with the strategic aim of converting the clients to additional products once they are part of the company's financial eco-system.

Adjusting for the 2Q22 update, Wilsons lowers earning forecasts by -65.8% for FY22 and -47.3% in FY23 to account for a reduction in Net Interest Margin (NIM) by -11bps. The loan book is expected to reach $1bn by the end of 2022.

The  broker's Overweight rating is unchanged with a 28c target price.

This report was published on August 1, 2022.

Target price is $0.28 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.2
If WZR meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 250% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.67.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Z2U    ZOOM2U TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $0.16

Shaw and Partners rates ((Z2U)) as Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners highlights solid gross merchandise value and revenue growth from Zoom2u Technologies in the fourth quarter, up 37% and 87% respectively and driving full year gross merchandise value and revenue to $17.5m and $4.6m.

The broker expects this growth will be maintained into FY23, anticipating the company's core business will provide a $5.5m revenue contribution in the coming year, up 33% year-on-year, with the Bunnings ((WES)) rollout offering a potential catalyst. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.40 from $0.45.

This report was published on July 29, 2022.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.24
If Z2U meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 150% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.96.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 11.43.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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