The Short Report – 04 Aug 2022

Weekly Reports | Aug 04 2022

This story features KOGAN.COM LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: KGN

See Guide further below (for readers with full access).

Summary:

By Greg Peel

Week Ending July 28, 2022.

The rally that began for the ASX200 the week before continued into last week as we tagged along with Wall Street.

There’s a lot of movement on the table below but only one short position changed by one percentage point or more. Kogan ((KGN)) shorts fell to 6.6% from 8.2% the week before. What’s interesting about the move is that the very next day, Kogan provided a trading update and jumped 50%.

Yes, 50%. But that still left it down -65% from its 2021 high.

Also posting solid moves on that day, although not quite as emphatic, were Temple & Webster ((TPW)) and PointsBet Holdings ((PBH)), which are both also in the 6%-shorted bracket. It will be interesting to see how these positions fare this week.

Otherwise, we note the shorters are moving in on miners of exotics. Lithium miner Lake Resources ((LKE)) is now over 10% shorted and uranium miner 92 Energy ((92E)) has stepped up to join peer Paladin Energy ((PDN)) in the 6% bracket.

Gold miners are also on the move, with Bellevue Gold ((BGL)) and De Grey Mining ((DEG)) each stepping up a bracket, while St Barbara ((SBM)) stepped down one. Again interesting, as St Barbara also shot up the next day on a positive update.

I pointed out last week that Zip Co had rallied 100% for no reason and eventually someone will be left without a chair when the music stops. Well, that rally extended to over 200% before the music stopped, and Zip fell -25%.

But, it’s been back on the move again since. Meanwhile, the shorters are stoically hanging in for the ride (8.7%), which means short-covering is not the reason the stocks has gone “meme”.

Weekly short positions as a percentage of market cap:

10%+
FLT     15.3
BET     12.0
NAN   11.4
SQ2     11.4
LKE    10.2

In: LKE          

9.0-9.9

RRL, EML

In: EML                      Out: LKE
           
8.0-8.9%

ZIP, MSB, PNV

Out: EML. KGN, ING

7.0-7.9%

ING, CCX, IEL , BGL

In: ING, BGL             Out: CXO

6.0-6.9%

VUL, CXO, PDN, WEB, PNI, PBH, MP1, CUV, KGN, TPW, 92E, DEG

In: KGN, CXO, MP1, 92E, DEG                  Out: BGL, SBM, ADH, OBL

5.0-5.9%

SBM, ADH, NEA, OBL, BOQ, AMA, 92E, NHC, FFX, IMU, JBH, PME, SYR,

In: SBM, ADH, OBL             Out: MP1, 92E, DEG, MFG

Movers & Shakers

All covered above.

ASX20 Short Positions (%)

Code Last Week Week Before Code Last Week Week Before
ALL 0.2 0.2 NAB 0.8 0.7
ANZ 0.6 0.6 NCM 0.2 0.3
BHP 0.3 0.3 RIO 0.8 0.7
CBA 0.9 1.0 STO 0.2 0.2
COL 0.6 0.7 TCL 0.4 0.3
CSL 0.4 0.4 TLS 0.1 0.2
FMG 1.6 1.6 WBC 1.2 1.2
GMG 0.7 0.7 WDS 1.0 0.9
JHX 0.4 0.4 WES 0.9 0.9
MQG 0.6 0.3 WOW 0.5 0.4

To see the full Short Report, please go to this link

Guide:

The Short Report draws upon data provided by the Australian Securities & Investment Commission (ASIC) to highlight significant weekly moves in short positions registered on stocks listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). Short positions in exchange-traded funds (ETF) and non-ordinary shares are not included. Short positions below 5% are not included in the table below but may be noted in the accompanying text if deemed significant.

Please take note of the Important Information provided at the end of this report. Percentage amounts in this report refer to percentage of ordinary shares on issue.

Stock codes highlighted in green have seen their short positions reduce in the week by an amount sufficient to move them into a lower percentage bracket. Stocks highlighted in red have seen their short positions increase in the week by an amount sufficient to move them into a higher percentage bracket. Moves in excess of one percentage point or more are discussed in the Movers & Shakers report below.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT THIS REPORT

The above information is sourced from daily reports published by the Australian Investment & Securities Commission (ASIC) and is provided by FNArena unqualified as a service to subscribers. FNArena would like to make it very clear that immediate assumptions cannot be drawn from the numbers alone.

It is wrong to assume that short percentages published by ASIC simply imply negative market positions held by fund managers or others looking to profit from a fall in respective share prices. While all or part of certain short percentages may indeed imply such, there are also a myriad of other reasons why a short position might be held which does not render that position “naked” given offsetting positions held elsewhere. Whatever balance of percentages truly is a “short” position would suggest there are negative views on a stock held by some in the market and also would suggest that were the news flow on that stock to turn suddenly positive, “short covering” may spark a short, sharp rally in that share price. However short positions held as an offset against another position may prove merely benign.

Often large short positions can be attributable to a listed hybrid security on the same stock where traders look to “strip out” the option value of the hybrid with offsetting listed option and stock positions. Short positions may form part of a short stock portfolio offsetting a long share price index (SPI) futures portfolio – a popular trade which seeks to exploit windows of opportunity when the SPI price trades at an overextended discount to fair value. Short positions may be held as a hedge by a broking house providing dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) underwriting services or other similar services. Short positions will occasionally need to be adopted by market makers in listed equity exchange traded fund products (EFT). All of the above are just some of the reasons why a short position may be held in a stock but can be considered benign in share price direction terms due to offsets.

Market makers in stock and stock index options will also hedge their portfolios using short positions where necessary. These delta hedges often form the other side of a client's long stock-long put option protection trade, or perhaps long stock-short call option (“buy-write”) position. In a clear example of how published short percentages can be misleading, an options market maker may hold a short position below the implied delta hedge level and that actually implies a “long” position in that stock.

Another popular trading strategy is that of “pairs trading” in which one stock is held short against a long position in another stock. Such positions look to exploit perceived imbalances in the valuations of two stocks and imply a “net neutral” market position.

Aside from all the above reasons as to why it would be a potential misconception to draw simply conclusions on short percentages, there are even wider issues to consider. ASIC itself will admit that short position data is not an exact science given the onus on market participants to declare to their broker when positions truly are “short”. Without any suggestion of deceit, there are always participants who are ignorant of the regulations. Discrepancies can also arise when short positions are held by a large investment banking operation offering multiple stock market services as well as proprietary trading activities. Such activity can introduce the possibility of either non-counting or double-counting when custodians are involved and beneficial ownership issues become unclear.

Finally, a simple fact is that the Australian Securities Exchange also keeps its own register of short positions. The figures provided by ASIC and by the ASX at any point do not necessarily correlate.

FNArena has offered this qualified explanation of the vagaries of short stock positions as a warning to subscribers not to jump to any conclusions or to make investment decisions based solely on these unqualified numbers. FNArena strongly suggests investors seek advice from their stock broker or financial adviser before acting upon any of the information provided herein.

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CHARTS

92E BGL DEG KGN LKE PBH PDN SBM TPW

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 92E - 92 ENERGY LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BGL - BELLEVUE GOLD LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DEG - DE GREY MINING LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: KGN - KOGAN.COM LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LKE - LAKE RESOURCES N.L.

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PBH - POINTSBET HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN - PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SBM - ST. BARBARA LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TPW - TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED