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Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jul 05, 2022

Daily Market Reports | Jul 05 2022

This story features BEACH ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BPT

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

BPT   BWX   BXB   CGS   CMM   COB   CSR   EVO   GEM   IDT   ILU   JHX   MCL   MFD   MMI   OBL   ORG   PAR   QAL   SGR   SRG   STA   STM   TAH   TLC   TSI  

BPT    BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.74

Jarden rates ((BPT)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden raises Beach Energy's target price to reflect stronger east-coast contracted prices to $2.05 from $1.90, noting roughly 70% of the company's FY24 forecast east-coast gas pricing should be exposed to higher prices.

Noting the company is one of the few public listings to be positively correlated to east coast gas price, Jarden retains a Buy rating.

This report was published on June 30, 2022.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.74 Difference: $0.31
If BPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.86, suggesting upside of 6.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 24.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.6, implying annual growth of 70.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 29.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.9, implying annual growth of -3.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BWX    BWX LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $0.71

Jarden rates ((BWX)) as Underweight (4) –

BWX has highlighted more challenging retail conditions and has adjusted its approach to inventory. Jarden reads this to mean the company has deferred $25m of primarily Sukin sales from June 2022 into 2023.

The broker understands the June sales were struck on a higher margin and anticipates a higher than forecast hit to FY22 earnings.

The company has also adjusted guidance – revenue disappointing the broker, but earnings (EBITDA) outpacing.

FY24 EPS forecasts fall -51.5% to reflect the capital raise.

Target price falls -35% to 66c from $1.04 to reflect changes in assumptions, a de-rating of industry multiples in response to macro factors, and a higher discount to reflect the rate of change.

Jarden casts a wary eye to the company's gearing and potential acquisition liability in September 2024. Underweight rating retained.

This report was published on June 30, 2022.

Target price is $0.66 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If BWX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.88, suggesting upside of 24.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 20.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -4.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BXB    BRAMBLES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $11.22

Jarden rates ((BXB)) as Overweight (2) –

Brambles has advised it will not proceed with the Costco plastic pallet pool migration after three years of testing and trials due to higher plastic pallet costs – four times that of lumber – poor returns hurdles and unfavourable unit economics.

Jarden doubts Brambles' competitors are likely to take on the challenge in the light of Brambles's findings. Should Brambles lose Costco's pallet flows, Jarden expects such a transition would take time, allowing the company to adjust earnings.

The company does not preclude the possibility that Costco will revisit the project should economic factors improve. Overweight rating and $11.50 target price retained.

This report was published on June 30, 2022.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $11.22 Difference: $0.28
If BXB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.14, suggesting upside of 8.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 38.05 cents and EPS of 54.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 39.02 cents and EPS of 56.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.4, implying annual growth of 7.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGS    COGSTATE LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $1.50

Bell Potter rates ((CGS)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Bell Potter has initiated coverage of Cogstate, a neuroscience company that is optimising the cognitive assessment process in clinical trials.

The broker considers assessment to be "a critical cog in the Alzheimer's machine".

Bell Potter kicks off with a Buy rating and $2.05 target price.

This report was published on July 1, 2022.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $0.55
If CGS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.47.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.88.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CMM    CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $3.24

Bell Potter rates ((CMM)) as Hold (3) –

Bell Potter has upgraded Capricorn Metals to Buy from Hold, noting the company is the lowest cost gold producer in an environment of rising costs.

The broker expects the all-in-sustaining-costs for its basket of producers to rise 10% and, given the average gold price is relatively unchanged, sector margins should contract in the near term.

Capricorn Metals is now Bell Potter's preferred gold producer, but the broker notes the company's ability to preserve margins in a volatile market is critical to the thesis. Target price eases to $3.70 from $3.90 to reflect rising costs.

This report was published on July 1, 2022.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: $0.46
If CMM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.12.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 28.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.33.

Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COB    COBALT BLUE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Industrial Metals – Overnight Price: $0.67

Canaccord Genuity rates ((COB)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity has three main takeaways from its site visit at Cobalt Blue's Broken Hill Cobalt Project: first samples are expected in the September quarter; management and team are demonstrating a depth of experience and are recruiting; the technology is well-developed and the company is in a position to expand organically or through partnership.

The broker values the project at $654m but applies a -50% risk penalty to account for the early stage of development.

Speculative Buy rating retained. Target price is $1.10.

This report was published on June 28, 2022.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.67 Difference: $0.43
If COB meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 33.50.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 33.50.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSR    CSR LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $4.15

Jarden rates ((CSR)) as Overweight (2) –

CSR has announced a $100m on-market share buyback and reaffirmed FY23 guidance.

Jarden spies room to raise prices in the next year to cover rising input costs and expects continued strength in the building products business due to the extended completions for detached housing and a forecast recovery in multi-residential construction.

Overweight weighting and $6.50 target price retained.

This report was published on June 30, 2022.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $4.15 Difference: $2.35
If CSR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.02, suggesting upside of 45.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 36.60 cents and EPS of 45.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.6, implying annual growth of -23.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 35.90 cents and EPS of 44.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.0, implying annual growth of -1.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVO    EVOLVE EDUCATION GROUP LIMITED

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $0.68

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EVO)) as Hold (3) –

While supply-demand trends and favourable government initiatives should be supportive of growth in the childcare sector, Canaccord Genuity notes staff shortages, and the increasing cost of agency staff, appears to be impacting on the sectors ability to leverage trends.

For Evolve Education, Canaccord Genuity made changes to its Australian operations model, driving a price increase to 6% from 4% in 2022. The broker noted it made no changes to the company's New Zealand operations despite the region facing similar headwinds.

The Hold rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.84 from $0.90.

This report was published on July 1, 2022.

Current Price is $0.68. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.47 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.51.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.75 cents and EPS of 7.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.64.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GEM    G8 EDUCATION LIMITED

Childcare – Overnight Price: $1.07

Canaccord Genuity rates ((GEM)) as Buy (1) –

While supply-demand trends and favourable government initiatives should be supportive of growth in the childcare sector, Canaccord Genuity notes staff shortages, and the increasing cost of agency staff, appears to be impacting on the sectors ability to leverage trends.

For G8 Education, Canaccord Genuity has lifted its expected prices to 7.5% from 6.0% in 2022, and to 6% from 4% in 2023, while decreasing occupancy to 1% from 2% in 2022, but lifting occupancy to 4% from 3% in 2023. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.33 from $1.42.

This report was published on July 1, 2022.

Target price is $1.33 Current Price is $1.07 Difference: $0.26
If GEM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 5.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.45.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 9.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.26.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IDT    IDT AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.12

Taylor Collison rates ((IDT)) as No Rating (-1) –

Taylor Collison initiates coverage on IDT Australia, noting while the company reported its first operating profit in a decade in FY21, the broker anticipates it will deliver a modest loss in the current year. 

Despite this, the broker finds IDT Australia well placed to benefit in a post-covid environment being the first in Australia to deliver a Good Manufacturing Practices grade mRNA vaccine, the development of which is currently supported by government initiatives.

With the company having missed out on two of an announced four Federal Government mRNA funding programs, the broker highlights winning funding will determine IDT Australia's ability to capitalise on the opportunity. 

The broker initiates with no rating or target price. 

This report was published on June 28, 2022.

Current Price is $0.12. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.91.

Forecast for FY23:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.67.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ILU    ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED

Mineral Sands – Overnight Price: $9.46

Goldman Sachs rates ((ILU)) as Buy (1) –

After chatting to Chinese zircon importers, producers and subject matter experts, Goldman Sachs is now forecasting a US$125-US$180/t increase in Iluka Resources's zircon pricing from July 1 on tightening supply.

The broker appreciates the company's "compelling" mineral sands and rare-earth potential.

EPS forecasts rise 3% in 2022 and 12% in 2023. Buy rating and $13.80 target price retained.

This report was published on June 29, 2022.

Target price is $13.80 Current Price is $9.46 Difference: $4.34
If ILU meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.92, suggesting upside of 26.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 31.70 cents and EPS of 93.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.2, implying annual growth of 14.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.40 cents and EPS of 93.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.8, implying annual growth of 0.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHX    JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $33.62

Jarden rates ((JHX)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden hosted a call with a US real-estate and building materials consultant who notes demand remains solid, which should allow building material price rises to hold.

The consultant believes James Hardie Industries has a competitive advantage in its strong working relationship with certified installers, which may help it command a premium.

Also, the growing focus on ESG may favour fibre cement product in new multi-family units, conjectures the consultant.

Jarden retains an Overweight rating and $45 target price.

This report was published on June 29, 2022.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $33.62 Difference: $11.38
If JHX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $50.49, suggesting upside of 50.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 142.01 cents and EPS of 233.01 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 249.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 126.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 126.84 cents and EPS of 210.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 274.7, implying annual growth of 10.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 139.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MCL    MIGHTY CRAFT LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $0.17

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MCL)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes recent industry data suggest solid market conditions have buoyed Australian liquor sales in the second half, with the broker expecting headwinds impacting earlier quarters have tempered into the fourth quarter. 

The broker anticipates Mighty Craft will deliver a strong quarter year-on-year, and notes the company recently launched its Hidden Lake ultra-premium whisky brand, as well as its third offering from Better Beer.

Social media engagement for the latter suggests consumer awareness is improving. The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.37 from $0.54.

This report was published on July 1, 2022.

Target price is $0.37 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.2
If MCL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 118% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.67.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MFD    MAYFIELD CHILDCARE LIMITED

Childcare – Overnight Price: $1.17

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MFD)) as Buy (1) –

While supply-demand trends and favourable government initiatives should be supportive of growth in the childcare sector, Canaccord Genuity notes staff shortages, and the increasing cost of agency staff, appears to be impacting on the sectors ability to leverage trends.

For Mayfield Childcare, Canaccord Genuity has lifted its expected prices to 6.0% from 5.0% in 2022 and occupancy to 3.5% from 2.0% in the same year. Price and occupancy expectations in 2023 are retained.

The Buy rating and target price of $1.76 are retained.

This report was published on July 1, 2022.

Target price is $1.76 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.59
If MFD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 7.60 cents and EPS of 15.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.45.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 17.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.65.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MMI    METRO MINING LIMITED

Coal – Overnight Price: $0.02

Shaw and Partners rates ((MMI)) as Buy (High Risk) (1) –

Metro Mining's board has given the green light to a Definitive Feasibility Study for the expansion of its Bauxite Hills Mine to 7.0Mt from 4.0Mt at a cost of -$28.3m, reports Shaw and Partners.

The company has secured off-take agreements with Xinfa, locking in 5.0Mt of sales in 2023 and 6.0Mt in 2024, allowing the cost to be recouped in less than two years, and to yield an internal rate of return of 78%, estimates the broker.

The cost of the expansion is lower than the broker previously estimated and Shaw and Partners upgrades earnings forecasts 3% to 7%.

Target price rises to 8c from 7c. Buy, High Risk, rating retained.

This report was published on June 30, 2022.

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.06
If MMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 300% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.67.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.22.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OBL    OMNI BRIDGEWAY LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $3.54

Goldman Sachs rates ((OBL)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs notes Omni Bridgeway has reached a number of key catalysts since its third quarter update, including finalisation of a five-year $250m debt facility and the launch of the EUR300m Fund 8.

The broker notes progress from Omni Bridgeway supports its forecasts for a doubling of funds under management in the next 2-3 years, and anticipates more detail will be provided at the company's fourth quarter update.

The Buy rating and target price of $4.95 are retained.

This report was published on July 1, 2022.

Target price is $4.95 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: $1.41
If OBL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 177.00.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 72.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.92.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG    ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $5.70

Jarden rates ((ORG)) as Initiation of coverage with an Underweight rating (4) –

Jarden initiates coverage of Origin Energy with an Underweight rating and $5.30 target price, expecting uncertainty surrounding 60% of coal supplies for Origin Energy's Eraring Power Station will continue given high global energy prices.

The broker notes two thirds of the company's supply portfolio is partly or wholly exposed to high coal and electricity prices.

Jarden's below-consensus position reflects its belief the market may be materially underestimating the cost to cover Origin Energy's short electricity position.

This report was published on June 29, 2022.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.70 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.54, suggesting upside of 14.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 22.50 cents and EPS of 22.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.8, implying annual growth of 43.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PAR    PARADIGM BIOPHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.97

Bell Potter rates ((PAR)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Paradigms Biopharmaceuticals reports that IP Australia has accepted its patent application to treat bone marrow pathologies with polysulfated polysaccharides with a term to 2038.

Bell Potter notes the company's future earnings depend upon the IP protection provided by its patent list and the recent patent is reliant on the exclusive in-licencing with German API manufacturer Bene pharma.

Speculative Buy rating and $1.90 valuation retained.

This report was published on July 1, 2022.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $0.97 Difference: $0.93
If PAR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 96% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 24.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.01.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 22.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.27.

Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QAL    QUALITAS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $1.62

Goldman Sachs rates ((QAL)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs has initiated coverage on alternative real estate investment manager Qualitas.

The broker notes the company has posted 36% compound annual growth rate in funds under management to $4.2bn since its inception in 2008, and expects this will reach $6.6bn by FY25.

The company has also delivered a 15.7% internal rate of return over the same period.

The broker notes the company is well leveraged to rising interest rates, which should boost debt fund return and performance fees, making it an attractive destination for capital.

Goldman Sachs admires the company's strong net cash position and low exposure to underlying fund performance, and considers it a low-risk exposure to the sector.

The broker initiates with a Buy rating and a target price it considers conservative at $3.

This report was published on June 30, 2022.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: $1.38
If QAL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.00.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.25.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGR    STAR ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $2.83

Jarden rates ((SGR)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden believes that US property sales in the sector on strong cap rates will be supportive for Star Entertainment.

The broker notes cap rates are tighter in Australia for CBD hotel assets than in the US, and expects global pent-up demand and a recovery in retail sales in May should deliver a revenue rebound, albeit muted by high staff costs.

Buy rating and $3.89 target price retained.

This report was published on June 29, 2022.

Target price is $3.89 Current Price is $2.83 Difference: $1.06
If SGR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.68, suggesting upside of 30.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 141.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 18.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SRG    SRG GLOBAL LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.62

Shaw and Partners rates ((SRG)) as Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners transfers coverage of SRG Global to a new analyst and maintains a positive view on both the company and sector.

The broker appreciates the management and macro-economic outlook, noting the boom in maintenance, mining and infrastructure is forecast to continue.

Buy rating retained. Target price slips to 95c to reflect mainly on recent interest-rate rises.

This report was published on July 4, 2022.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.62 Difference: $0.33
If SRG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.90 cents and EPS of 4.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.42.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.50 cents and EPS of 5.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.51.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STA    STRANDLINE RESOURCES LIMITED

Mineral Sands – Overnight Price: $0.32

Shaw and Partners rates ((STA)) as Buy (1) –

Strandline Resources will start mining at the Coburn Mineral Sands project two months ahead of plan, and expects the first strip ratio will fall to 0.5x from a previously forecast 0.7x, thanks to enhanced pit design, reports Shaw and Partners.

Management says the project is on budget, despite rising costs and says early mining will not necessarily lead to early concentrate production, given that hinges on the construction of the Wet Concentration Plant.

Shaw and Partners says the early start de-risks the mine's launch and notes the mine is fully funded to completion with a solid contingency and cash buffer. Any further expansion is expected to be funded through the mine's cash flow.

Buy recommendation retained. Target price steady at 80c.

This report was published on June 30, 2022.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.48
If STA meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 150% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 32.00.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.41.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STM    SUNSTONE METALS LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $0.04

Taylor Collison rates ((STM)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Since its March update, Taylor Collison notes ongoing drilling across Sunstone Metals' Ecuadorean copper-gold prospects have further advanced, with the broker noting results are typical of globally significant porphyry deposits.

The broker highlighted mineralisation at the combined Alba-Brama prospects reaching an area 1,100m x 400m, and with a depth of at least 400m, has been confirmed.

The company has also announced the signing of a Letter of Intent to acquire the under explored Verde Chico project. The broker is Speculative Buy rated. 

This report was published on June 27, 2022.

Current Price is $0.04. Target price not assessed.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TAH    TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $1.07

Goldman Sachs rates ((TAH)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs' key takeaways from Tabcorp Holdings' inaugural investor day include: management's determination to take a more active role in leveling the playing field with online peers; the company intends to rebalance marketing spend to digital; plus a stabilisation of its digital market-share.

The company guided to a FY23 capital expenditure skew to wagering and a rise in costs of 3% to 4% in FY22.

Neutral rating retained and target price edges up to $1.10 from $1.07 to reflect lower forecast capital expenditure.

This report was published on June 30, 2022.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.07 Difference: $0.03
If TAH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.16, suggesting upside of 8.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.8, implying annual growth of -61.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.8, implying annual growth of -41.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLC    LOTTERY CORPORATION LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $4.57

Jarden rates ((TLC)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden reports the UK National Lottery's sales for the year to March 31, 2022, fell -2.5%, thanks to a sharp fall in instant lotteries.

The broker notes powerball revenue has proved resilient although signs of fatigue may be setting in.

Neutral rating and $4.49 target price retained.

This report was published on June 30, 2022.

Target price is $4.49 Current Price is $4.57 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If TLC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.22, suggesting upside of 14.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 12.50 cents and EPS of 15.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of 45.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.0.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TSI    TOP SHELF INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $1.08

Canaccord Genuity rates ((TSI)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes recent industry data suggest solid market conditions have buoyed Australian liquor sales in the second half, with the broker expecting headwinds impacting earlier quarters have tempered into the fourth quarter. 

The broker is expecting Top Shelf International to report record revenue in the fourth quarter, noting company commentary has suggested strong initial cut through at Coles liquor stores. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.88 from $2.44.

This report was published on July 1, 2022.

Target price is $1.88 Current Price is $1.08 Difference: $0.8
If TSI meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.00.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.35.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

As part of emerging new trends overseas, The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition also includes providers of sponsored research. Readers should bear in mind, sponsored research, while not necessarily of lower quality, has the embedded complication that the company that is the subject of the research has paid for this research. Providers of sponsored research that can potentially be included in this Report are Breakaway Research, Edison Investment Research, Independent Investment Research, NDF Research, Pitt Street Research, and TMT Analytics.

Decisions about inclusions in this Report are made independently of the providers of stock market research and at full discretion of the team of journalists responsible for content at FNArena. Inclusion does not equal endorsement, in any way, shape or form. This Report is provided for informational purposes only.

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BPT BWX BXB CGS CMM COB CSR EVO GEM IDT ILU JHX MCL MFD MMI OBL ORG PAR QAL SGR SRG STA STM TAH TLC TSI

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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ORG - ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: QAL - QUALITAS LIMITED

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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SRG - SRG GLOBAL LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: STA - STRANDLINE RESOURCES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: STM - SUNSTONE METALS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TAH - TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TLC - LOTTERY CORPORATION LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TSI - TOP SHELF INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED