The Short Report – 17 Mar 2022

This story features SEZZLE INC, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SZL

See Guide further below (for readers with full access).

Summary:

By Greg Peel

Week Ending March 10, 2022.

The post-invasion rally for the ASX200 that began on February 28 as commodity prices soared, came to an end on March 4 when announced sanctions and a too-high oil price began to impact on sentiment. Nonetheless from March 9, the index began to rally once more.

The week saw short positions mostly on the increase, as the red below suggests, but only two positions moved by more than one percentage point.

Shorts in BNPL player Zip Co ((Z1P)) dropped to 7.8% from 9.8% the week before. The company posted a disappointing profit result at the end of February, but also announced a proposed takeover of rival Sezzle ((SZL)), and a capital raising to boot.

Capital raisings are a handy way for shorters to safely lock in profits as new stock is typically issued at a discount.

The other stock was uranium miner Paladin Energy ((PDN)), which saw its shorts rise to 7.2% from 5.8%. See below.

We also note troubled funds manager Magellan Financial Group ((MFG)) has reappeared at the bottom end of the table, and we welcome debutant Humm Group ((HUM)), a business and consumer finance company that tried to also compete in the volatile BNPL space.

A recent non-binding agreement with Latitude Group ((LFS)) might see that part of the business, under the umbrella of 'Consumer Finance', soon being transferred to Latitude, which has its own ambitions in the BNPL space.

Humm was formerly known as FlexiGroup.

Weekly short positions as a percentage of market cap:

10%+
FLT     17.2
BET     12.6
NAN   11.9
WEB   10.4

No changes                

9.0-9.9

MSB, KGN, RBL, PNV

Out: Z1P
           
8.0-8.9%

EML, APX, OBL, AMA

In: AMA                    

7.0-7.9%

Z1P, TYR, TPW, PDN

In: Z1P, PDN              Out: AMA

6.0-6.9%

PBH, EOS, RRL, CUV, ING

In: RRL                      

5.0-5.9%

ADH, IEL, MFG, NEA, NHC, HUM

In: MFG, HUM                      Out: PDN, RRL, MTS

Movers & Shakers

Uranium is one commodity that has joined in the war-related price surge, but unlike other commodities had not by last week pulled back at all. The spot uranium price has been rallying steadily all year as speculators move to take advantage of the “green” theme.

Russia exports uranium, but more specifically leads the world in enriched uranium exports. As yet these exports have not been subject to specific sanctions, but financial sanctions and further supply constraints are nonetheless conspiring to push utilities into securing supply, which is helping to keep the uranium price elevated.

Shares in leading uranium pure-play Paladin Energy rallied 35% from before the invasion up until March 3, when Russia bombed an Ukrainian nuclear plant. The stock then proceeded to fall back -20% on fear another nuclear disaster could seal nuclear energy’s fate.

The share price later recovered when it was clear no reactors were damaged at the plant, and when the spot uranium price jumped 16% last week on news Washington was indeed considering sanctions on Russia’s state-owned uranium company.

Paladin, and other uranium stocks here and across the globe, have been swinging around wildly of late. Paladin is 7.2% shorted, up from 5.8% the week before.

ASX20 Short Positions (%)

Code	Last Week	Week Before	Code	Last Week	Week Before
ALL	0.1	0.1	NAB	0.7	0.7
ANZ	0.5	0.7	NCM	3.4	1.6
BHP	0.5	0.5	RIO	0.5	0.4
CBA	0.7	0.7	STO	0.2	0.3
COL	0.5	0.5	TCL	0.4	0.6
CSL	0.2	0.2	TLS	0.2	0.2
FMG	1.3	1.4	WBC	1.4	1.6
GMG	0.2	0.1	WES	0.3	0.3
JHX	0.6	0.8	WOW	0.4	0.2
MQG	0.3	0.2	WPL	2.4	2.3

To see the full Short Report, please go to this link

Guide:

The Short Report draws upon data provided by the Australian Securities & Investment Commission (ASIC) to highlight significant weekly moves in short positions registered on stocks listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). Short positions in exchange-traded funds (ETF) and non-ordinary shares are not included. Short positions below 5% are not included in the table below but may be noted in the accompanying text if deemed significant.

Please take note of the Important Information provided at the end of this report. Percentage amounts in this report refer to percentage of ordinary shares on issue.

Stock codes highlighted in green have seen their short positions reduce in the week by an amount sufficient to move them into a lower percentage bracket. Stocks highlighted in red have seen their short positions increase in the week by an amount sufficient to move them into a higher percentage bracket. Moves in excess of one percentage point or more are discussed in the Movers & Shakers report below.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT THIS REPORT

The above information is sourced from daily reports published by the Australian Investment & Securities Commission (ASIC) and is provided by FNArena unqualified as a service to subscribers. FNArena would like to make it very clear that immediate assumptions cannot be drawn from the numbers alone.

It is wrong to assume that short percentages published by ASIC simply imply negative market positions held by fund managers or others looking to profit from a fall in respective share prices. While all or part of certain short percentages may indeed imply such, there are also a myriad of other reasons why a short position might be held which does not render that position “naked” given offsetting positions held elsewhere. Whatever balance of percentages truly is a “short” position would suggest there are negative views on a stock held by some in the market and also would suggest that were the news flow on that stock to turn suddenly positive, “short covering” may spark a short, sharp rally in that share price. However short positions held as an offset against another position may prove merely benign.

Often large short positions can be attributable to a listed hybrid security on the same stock where traders look to “strip out” the option value of the hybrid with offsetting listed option and stock positions. Short positions may form part of a short stock portfolio offsetting a long share price index (SPI) futures portfolio – a popular trade which seeks to exploit windows of opportunity when the SPI price trades at an overextended discount to fair value. Short positions may be held as a hedge by a broking house providing dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) underwriting services or other similar services. Short positions will occasionally need to be adopted by market makers in listed equity exchange traded fund products (EFT). All of the above are just some of the reasons why a short position may be held in a stock but can be considered benign in share price direction terms due to offsets.

Market makers in stock and stock index options will also hedge their portfolios using short positions where necessary. These delta hedges often form the other side of a client's long stock-long put option protection trade, or perhaps long stock-short call option (“buy-write”) position. In a clear example of how published short percentages can be misleading, an options market maker may hold a short position below the implied delta hedge level and that actually implies a “long” position in that stock.

Another popular trading strategy is that of “pairs trading” in which one stock is held short against a long position in another stock. Such positions look to exploit perceived imbalances in the valuations of two stocks and imply a “net neutral” market position.

Aside from all the above reasons as to why it would be a potential misconception to draw simply conclusions on short percentages, there are even wider issues to consider. ASIC itself will admit that short position data is not an exact science given the onus on market participants to declare to their broker when positions truly are “short”. Without any suggestion of deceit, there are always participants who are ignorant of the regulations. Discrepancies can also arise when short positions are held by a large investment banking operation offering multiple stock market services as well as proprietary trading activities. Such activity can introduce the possibility of either non-counting or double-counting when custodians are involved and beneficial ownership issues become unclear.

Finally, a simple fact is that the Australian Securities Exchange also keeps its own register of short positions. The figures provided by ASIC and by the ASX at any point do not necessarily correlate.

FNArena has offered this qualified explanation of the vagaries of short stock positions as a warning to subscribers not to jump to any conclusions or to make investment decisions based solely on these unqualified numbers. FNArena strongly suggests investors seek advice from their stock broker or financial adviser before acting upon any of the information provided herein.

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