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Rudi’s View: 29Metals, Calix, Chalice Mining, Incitec Pivot, Telstra & Qantas

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Always an independent thinker, Rudi has not shied away from making big out-of-consensus predictions that proved accurate later on. When Rio Tinto shares surged above $120 he wrote investors should sell. In mid-2008 he warned investors not to hold on to equities in oil producers. In August 2008 he predicted the largest sell-off in commodities stocks was about to follow. In 2009 he suggested Australian banks were an excellent buy. Between 2011 and 2015 Rudi consistently maintained investors were better off avoiding exposure to commodities and to commodities stocks. Post GFC, he dedicated his research to finding All-Weather Performers. See also "All-Weather Performers" on this website, as well as the Special Reports section.

Rudi's View | Jan 13 2022

This story features AUB GROUP LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AUB

In today's update:

-Conviction Calls
-All-Weather Performers
-All-Weather Model Portfolio
-AIA Conference In March

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

Happy New Year, and welcome back!

Rudi's View stories won't genuinely return until after Australia Day when the time has arrived to prepare for the February reporting season, but since various lists of top picks and conviction calls have been updated already, I convinced myself to compile the update below.

Enjoy.

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The January update of Morningstar's Best Stock Ideas on the ASX saw three stocks being removed with share prices of both AUB Group ((AUB)) and Viva Energy Group ((VEA)) having appreciated too much to still warrant their nomination, while the days of Link Administration ((LNK)) as an independent listed entity seem numbered following Dye and Durham's formal offer for the whole of the company.

Since no new additions were included, the list of Best Stock Ideas is now left with 13 names, in alphabetical order:

-a2 Milk ((A2M))
-AGL Energy ((AGL))
-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Cimic Group ((CIM))
-G8 Education ((GEM))
-InvoCare ((IVC))
-Lendlease ((LLC))
-Magellan Financial Group ((MFG))
-Southern Cross Media Group ((SXL))
-Westpac ((WBC))
-Whitehaven Coal ((WHC))
-Woodside Petroleum ((WPL))

Analysts at Morningstar cover in excess of 200 companies listed in Australia and/or New Zealand and inclusion in the Best Ideas is always inspired by a (too) cheap valuation, which sometimes translates into an extended membership which might seem endless for investors who do not have the patience.

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Over at Canaccord Genuity, which in Australia has a specific focus on micro-cap and small-cap companies, analysts have selected 26 Top Picks that combined make up this stockbroker's Top Australian Stock Picks for the calendar year ahead.

In alphabetical order:

-Alcidion Group ((ALC))
-Allkem Ltd ((AKE))
-Aroa Biosurgery ((ARX))
-Bellevue Gold ((BGL))
-BWX Ltd ((BWX))
-Calix ((CXL))
-Carnarvon Petroleum ((CVN))
-City Chic Collective ((CCX))
-DDH1 Ltd ((DDH))
-DGL Group ((DHL))
-Dropsuite ((DSE))
-Euro Manganese ((EMN))
-HT&E ((HT1))
-ImpediMed ((IPD))
-Macquarie Telecom ((MAQ))
-Marley Spoon ((MMM))
-Mighty Craft ((MCL))
-OFX Group ((OFX))
-Paladin Energy ((PDN))
-Praemium ((PPS))
-Predictive Discovery ((PDI))
-Secos Group ((SES))
-Superloop ((SLC))
-Top Shelf International ((TSI))
-Toys "R" Us ANZ ((TOY))
-Trajan Group ((TRJ))

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Mining analysts at Macquarie recently expressed their preference for OZ Minerals ((OZL)) and 29Metals ((29M)) for copper exposure, and Mincor Resources ((MCR)) and Panoramic Resources ((PAN)) for exposure to nickel, with Chalice Mining ((CHN)) as the top favourite among local exploration companies.

Among large cap local gold producers, Macquarie's preference remains with Northern Star ((NST)) and Newcrest Mining ((NCM)).

****

JP Morgan's target for the ASX200 is 7800 by year-end. Its projection for the S&P500 is slightly better, with the US index expected to rise to 5050 this year, but the MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) might rise by 23% this year if JP Morgan's projections prove correct.

In Australia, JP Morgan's Model Portfolio retains a clear bias towards 'Value'. Largest holdings, relative to index importance, are National Australia Bank ((NAB)), Star Entertainment ((SGR)), Beach Energy ((BPT)), Qantas Airways ((QAN)), Fortescue Metals ((FMG)), and Scentre Group ((SCG)).

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Morgan Stanley's Model Portfolio for Australia shed a few exposures over the holiday period, with Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)) and Downer EDI ((DOW)) no longer represented. In their place came Incitec Pivot ((IPL)), Orica ((ORI)) and Tyro Payments ((TYR)).

Other inclusions are:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-National Australia Bank
-Westpac
-Computershare ((CPU))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-QBE Insurance ((QBE))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-Mirvac Group ((MGR))
-Scentre Group
-Domino's Pizza ((DMP))
-IDP Education ((IEL))
-Wesfarmers ((WES))
-James Hardie ((JHX))
-REA Group ((REA))
-ALS Ltd ((ALQ))
-Qantas Airways
-CSL ((CSL))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Sonic Healthcare ((SHL))
-APA Group ((APA))
-Telstra ((TLS))
-BHP ((BHP))
-29Metals ((29M))
-Alumina Ltd ((AWC))
-BlueScope Steel ((BSL))
-Rio Tinto ((RIO))
-OZ Minerals
-Newcrest Mining
-Ampol ((ALD))
-Oil Search ((OSH))
-Karoon Energy ((KAR))
-Santos ((STO))
-Worley ((WOR))

Morgan Stanley's Model Portfolio holds 3.90% in cash.

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Morgan Stanley's Focus List for Australia contains 10 members, in alphabetical order:

-APA Group
-BlueScope Steel
-Computershare
-Goodman Group
-Macquarie Group
-Orica
-Qantas Airways
-QBE Insurance
-REA Group
-Telstra

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Finally, but certainly not least, analysts at Bell Potter also selected their favourite sector exposures for calendar year 2022:

-Among banks: ANZ Bank and National Australia Bank
-Listed Investment Companies: Qualitas Real Estate Income Fund ((QRI)), Future Generation Global Investment Co ((FGG)), and WAM Alternative Assets ((WMA))
-Agriculture & FMCG: Bega Cheese ((BGA)), a2 Milk, and Synlait Milk ((SM1))
-Technology: Infomedia ((IFM)), TechnologyOne ((TNE)), and Life360 ((360))
-Accent Group ((AX1)), City Chic Collective, and Propel Funeral Partners ((PFP))
-Industrials: DDH1, Calix, Emeco Holdings ((EHL))
-Industrials (continued): Money3 ((MNY)), BWX Ltd, and ikeGPS ((IKE))
-Industrials (continued): Cluey ((CLU)), Coventry Group ((CYG)), and DGL Group
-Healthcare: Kazia Therapeutics ((KZA)), Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX)), and Doctor Care Anywhere ((DOC))
-Resources and Precious Metals: Nickel Mines ((NIC)), Regis Resources ((RRL)), and Chalice Mining
-Energy: Cooper Energy ((COE)), and Boss Energy ((BOE))
-Strategic Minerals: Liontown Resources ((LTR)), Lake Resources ((LKE)), and Alpha HPA ((A4N))

****

All-Weather Performers

My response to questions about whether I decided to make any changes to my list of All-Weather stocks and other selections I share with FNArena subscribers:

Bapcor ((BAP)) and Ramsay Health Care ((RHC)) have now been removed from my lists. I have also moved Seek ((SEK)) from the All-Weathers-with-question-marks to simplify the All-Weathers (no more fundamental questions).

I have decided not to add any more promising upcoming new and exciting business models, as 2022 looks far more challenging than the past five years or so. But other than those changes, I have left my lists untouched.

Always remember: true gold standard businesses like CSL, ResMed ((RMD)), Wesfarmers, etc don't lose their core mettle simply because the share market has a few conniptions.

Paid subscribers have access to a dedicated section on the website: https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/analysis-data/all-weather-stocks/

All-Weather Model Portfolio

Since late 2014, the FNArena/Vested Equities All-Weather Model Portfolio has been based upon my research into All-Weather stocks on the ASX.

Monthly Portfolio reviews published in 2021:

November: https://www.fnarena.com/downloadfile.php?p=w&n=5A1F8C7A-D49A-C5ED-550285FB8C63EBD9

October: https://www.fnarena.com/downloadfile.php?p=w&n=4BA408AC-AF35-78F5-F42D94A2CF808BF1

September: https://www.fnarena.com/downloadfile.php?p=w&n=B6798F75-0375-ACE0-CAB39BEDF04567BE

August: https://www.fnarena.com/downloadfile.php?p=w&n=B674AF06-E339-5816-5FD0DA4AE7D29F80

June/July: https://www.fnarena.com/downloadfile.php?p=w&n=B66CC435-9758-005C-77B2719A92612A9B

May: https://www.fnarena.com/downloadfile.php?p=w&n=B66804C2-BB83-93BF-AEFB5A28EC0E4A5A

April: https://www.fnarena.com/downloadfile.php?p=w&n=B664E73A-FBB4-1456-8EF79590D64EBF29

March: https://www.fnarena.com/downloadfile.php?p=w&n=B66218E0-DB14-B8D4-360E91AE22EA01AC

February: https://www.fnarena.com/downloadfile.php?p=w&n=B65DC629-929F-1743-8FF1EEFE600DF5A8

AIA Conference In March

The Australian Investors Association (AIA) has been organising an annual national conference since the early 1990s, uninterrupted, until covid hit in 2021. There was no event last year due to lockdowns, lack of vaccinations and travel restrictions.

This year's event will have everyone double vaccinated and masked up, but at least this time around investors can listen to what the likes of yours truly have to say about investing in Australian shares and related subjects.

Tickets are still available: https://www.investors.asn.au/events/natioanl/date/177/2022-03-27/2022-03-30

March 27-30, on the Gold Coast, in Queensland.

(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions.)  

P.S. I – All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert for my Rudi's View stories. Go to My Alerts (top bar of the website) and tick the box in front of 'Rudi's View'. You will receive an email alert every time a new Rudi's View story has been published on the website. 

P.S. II – If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

FNArena is proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On

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CHARTS

29M 360 A2M A4N AGL AKE ALC ALD ALQ ANZ APA ARX AUB AWC AX1 AZJ BAP BGA BGL BHP BOE BPT BSL BWX BXB CBA CCX CHN CIM CLU COE CPU CSL CVN CXL CYG DDH DMP DOC DOW DSE EHL EMN FGG FMG GEM GMG HT1 IAG IEL IFM IKE IPD IPL IVC JHX KAR KZA LKE LLC LNK LTR MAQ MCL MCR MFG MGR MMM MNY MQG NAB NCM NIC NST OFX ORI OSH OZL PAN PDI PDN PFP PPS QAN QBE QRI REA RHC RIO RMD RRL SCG SEK SES SGR SHL SLC SM1 STO SXL TLS TLX TNE TOY TRJ TSI TYR VEA WBC WES WHC WMA WOR

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 29M - 29METALS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 360 - LIFE360 INC

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: A2M - A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: A4N - ALPHA HPA LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AGL - AGL ENERGY LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AKE - ALLKEM LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALC - ALCIDION GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALD - AMPOL LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALQ - ALS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: APA - APA GROUP

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ARX - AROA BIOSURGERY LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AUB - AUB GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AWC - ALUMINA LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AX1 - ACCENT GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AZJ - AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BAP - BAPCOR LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BGA - BEGA CHEESE LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BGL - BELLEVUE GOLD LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BHP - BHP GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOE - BOSS ENERGY LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BPT - BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BSL - BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BWX - BWX LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BXB - BRAMBLES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CBA - COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CCX - CITY CHIC COLLECTIVE LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CHN - CHALICE MINING LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CIM - CIMIC GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CLU - CLUEY LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: COE - COOPER ENERGY LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CPU - COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CSL - CSL LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CVN - CARNARVON ENERGY LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CXL - CALIX LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CYG - COVENTRY GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DDH - DDH1 LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DMP - DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DOC - DOCTOR CARE ANYWHERE GROUP PLC

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DOW - DOWNER EDI LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DSE - DROPSUITE LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EHL - EMECO HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EMN - EURO MANGANESE INC

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: FMG - FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GEM - G8 EDUCATION LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GMG - GOODMAN GROUP

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: HT1 - HT&E LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IAG - INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IEL - IDP EDUCATION LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IFM - INFOMEDIA LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IKE - IKEGPS GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IPD - IMPEDIMED LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IPL - INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IVC - INVOCARE LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: JHX - JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: KAR - KAROON ENERGY LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: KZA - KAZIA THERAPEUTICS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LKE - LAKE RESOURCES N.L.

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LLC - LENDLEASE GROUP

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LNK - LINK ADMINISTRATION HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LTR - LIONTOWN RESOURCES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MAQ - MACQUARIE TELECOM GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MCL - MIGHTY CRAFT LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MCR - MINCOR RESOURCES NL

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MFG - MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MGR - MIRVAC GROUP

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MMM - MARLEY SPOON AG

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MNY - MONEY3 CORPORATION LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MQG - MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NAB - NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NCM - NEWCREST MINING LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NIC - NICKEL INDUSTRIES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NST - NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: OFX - OFX GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ORI - ORICA LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: OSH - OIL SEARCH LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: OZL - OZ MINERALS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PAN - PANORAMIC RESOURCES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDI - PREDICTIVE DISCOVERY LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN - PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PFP - PROPEL FUNERAL PARTNERS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PPS - PRAEMIUM LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: QAN - QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: QBE - QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: QRI - QUALITAS REAL ESTATE INCOME FUND

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: REA - REA GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RHC - RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RIO - RIO TINTO LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RMD - RESMED INC

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RRL - REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SCG - SCENTRE GROUP

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SEK - SEEK LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SES - SECOS GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SGR - STAR ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SHL - SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SLC - SUPERLOOP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SM1 - SYNLAIT MILK LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: STO - SANTOS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SXL - SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TLS - TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TLX - TELIX PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TNE - TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TOY - TOYS 'R' US ANZ LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TRJ - TRAJAN GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TSI - TOP SHELF INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TYR - TYRO PAYMENTS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: VEA - VIVA ENERGY GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WBC - WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WES - WESFARMERS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WHC - WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WMA - WAM ALTERNATIVE ASSETS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WOR - WORLEY LIMITED