Feature Stories | Sep 08 2021
After a blow-away February result season this year, the August result season proved to be only average, and still we’re at covid’s mercy
-Only average beats to misses this season
-Ongoing demand meeting constrained supply
-Guidance remains shrouded in uncertainty
By Greg Peel
With the August result season now complete in 2021, the FNArena Corporate Result Monitor, which has been building throughout the month, is now complete and published in its final form here.
The table contains ratings and consensus target price changes along with brief summaries of the collective responses from FNArena database brokers for each individual corporate result, and an assessment of “beats” and “misses”. Australian corporate results tend to focus on the profit line, with all its inherent potential for accounting vagaries, tax changes, asset write-downs and other “one-off” impacts. FNArena has focused mostly on underlying earnings results (more in line with Wall Street practice) as a more valuable indicator of whether or not a company has outperformed or underperformed broker expectations. There is also a level of “quality” assessment here rather than simple blind “quantity”.
The Monitor summarises results from 346 major listed companies. By FNArena’s assessment, 117 companies beat expectations and 75 missed expectations, for a percentage ratio of 34/22 or 1.5 beats to misses. The aggregate of all resultant target price changes came in at a net 4.6% gain. In response to results, brokers made 50 ratings upgrades and 70 ratings downgrades.
The first FNArena Corporate Result Monitor was published in the August season of 2013. See table:
Back to Average
Six months ago, the February result season proved to be the “best ever” in terms of company results beating analyst expectations compared to those missing. The beat-to-miss ratio came in at 3.7, compared to a previous high 1.9 in August 2020 and a seven-and-a-half year average of 1.5.