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Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Sep 06, 2021

Daily Market Reports | Sep 06 2021

This story features ARENA REIT, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ARF

FNArena will be updating Special Editions of this Report in September dedicated to the August Reporting Season.

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ARF (2)   AZJ   BWP   CBA   CCP   CGF   CIP (2)   CLW   CNI   COF   CPU   CRN   CTD   ELO (3)   ERD   FLT   GMA   GUD   HLO   IAG (2)   MFD   MIN   MP1   NCK   OFX   PNI   REA (2)   RMD (3)   SLX   SUN   TCL   WEB  

ARF    ARENA REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $4.45

Goldman Sachs rates ((ARF)) as Neutral (3) –

Key highlights of Arena REIT's FY21 result noted by Goldman Sachs include an average like-for-like rental increase of 3.3% including 25 market rent reviews from FY20 and executed lease renegotiation with Goodstart on 87 properties; while the healthcare portfolio average rental increase was down 55 bps to 1.7%.

The weighted average lease expiry (WALE) increased to 20.1 years, up 6.1 years, and the net asset value (NAV) grew 15% to $2.56.

Neutral rating: Target $3.35.

This report was issued August 11, 2021.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $4.45 Difference: minus $1.1 (current price is over target).
If ARF meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.73, suggesting downside of -13.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of -60.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.3, implying annual growth of 5.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Jarden rates ((ARF)) as Buy (2) –

Jarden believes childcare's long weighted average lease expiry (WALE), steady rental growth backed by government support, and portfolio growth through acquisitions and developments, together with Arena's internally managed structure, drives the REIT's ongoing funds from operations/distribution per unit growth well ahead of the passive REIT peer group.

The broker has upgraded funds from operations/distribution per unit growth forecasts by 3-4% to reflect this and thinks risk to guidance is on the upside, due to add-on acquisitions, rising inflation expectations driving rental growth, and ongoing reduction in the cost of debt.

Overweight rating is unchanged and the target increases to $3.75 from $3.45.

This report was published on August 11, 2021.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $4.45 Difference: minus $0.7 (current price is over target).
If ARF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.73, suggesting downside of -13.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.80 cents and EPS of 16.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of -60.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.90 cents and EPS of 17.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.3, implying annual growth of 5.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AZJ    AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $3.79

Jarden rates ((AZJ)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

While Aurizon Holdings reported underlying earnings of $903m in FY21, near the top end of guidance, Jarden notes the result included a number of non-recurring items that boosted growth.

Segmentally, the Bulk business continued to be a earnings growth driving force, while Coal was impacted by lower haulage volumes. Notably, Bulk capital expenditure was also up 78%, and the company is guiding to an increase in Coal volumes of 5% for FY22 despite contract volumes falling around -6%.

Jarden has updated earnings per share forecasts by -2%, -3% and -1% through to FY24.

The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Overweight and the target price decreases to $4.30 from $4.40.

This report was published on August 9, 2021.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.79 Difference: $0.51
If AZJ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.51, suggesting upside of 19.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 27.30 cents and EPS of 27.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.4, implying annual growth of -27.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 27.30 cents and EPS of 27.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.1, implying annual growth of 2.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BWP    BWP TRUST

REITs – Overnight Price: $4.11

Jarden rates ((BWP)) as Sell (5) –

It is Jarden's view that BWP Trust's FY21 result and FY22 guidance are representative of the company struggling to show any funds from operations or distribution per unit growth at the moment. The broker highlights this is despite a relatively marginal covid impact and a low interest rate environment, among other factors.

Jarden also notes management has more actively considered acquisitions, and has a balance sheet capacity to fund this, and that net tangible asset growth remains strong with further upside.

The Sell rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.50 from $3.30.

This report was published on August 4, 2021.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $4.11 Difference: minus $0.61 (current price is over target).
If BWP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.65, suggesting downside of -10.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 18.40 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of -56.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.70 cents and EPS of 18.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of 4.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CBA    COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Banks – Overnight Price: $101.84

Goldman Sachs rates ((CBA)) as Sell (5) –

Goldman Sachs believes Commonwealth Bank's FY21 cash earnings from continued operations of $8,653, a 3.7% beat on the broker's expectations, was driven by significant outperformance on bad and doubtful debts (BDD).

However, this was offset by higher costs and a slight miss on revenues which drove a -1.1% miss at the pre-provision operating profit line.

While no specific group guidance was provided, the bank highlighted key considerations on margin outlook into FY22 include headwinds from: a low-rate environment, price competition, home loan, and deposits mix, and higher liquids and tailwinds from the term funding facility funding benefit.

Looking ahead, the broker notes the bank has reiterated its full-year target payout ratio of 70-80%, with an interim payout of circa 70%, and will continue to maintain a significant balance of surplus franking credits.

The Sell rating is unchanged: Target price of $81.87.

This report was published on August 11, 2021. 

Target price is $81.87 Current Price is $101.84 Difference: minus $19.97 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $90.50, suggesting downside of -10.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 492.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 522.2, implying annual growth of -9.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 392.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 509.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 552.5, implying annual growth of 5.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 416.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCP    CREDIT CORP GROUP LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $31.68

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CCP)) as Hold (3) –

Canaccord Genuity notes that Credit Corp Group is starting the year fairly light on contracted debt purchasing volumes, given customer finance arrears are at record lows and banks remain lenient on delinquent borrowers. 

The company's FY21 net profit of $88.1m was within the guidance range, but purchasing of $293m was a miss on the $310-330m guidance, and initial guidance for FY22 is almost flat on FY21 results.

The broker notes there is some suggestion that volumes will pick up throughout the year, and highlights that Credit Corp's strong funding position in comparison to its peers should allow it to retain a high level of market share.

The Hold rating is retained and the target price decreases to $28.80 from $30.00. 

This report was published on August 4, 2020.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $31.68 Difference: minus $3.68 (current price is over target).
If CCP meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $32.95, suggesting upside of 5.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 142.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 140.7, implying annual growth of 7.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 88.00 cents and EPS of 163.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 159.3, implying annual growth of 13.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGF    CHALLENGER LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $6.44

Goldman Sachs rates ((CGF)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs attributes Challenger's slightly stronger than expected FY21 normalised net profit of $278.5m to a mix of better life book growth plus margin, weaker funds management margins, and a lower than expected second half FY21 tax rate.

Challenger reiterated the normalised profit before tax guidance range of $430m-$480m for FY22.

A final dividend per share (DPS) of 10.5c was slightly stronger than the broker expected, equating to a normalised FY21 payout ratio of 48%.

The broker has made mild compositional adjustments to FY22-FY23 normalised net profit which results in low single-digit upgrades and also introduce FY24 estimates.

The Neutral rating has been retained and the target price increases to $5.77 from $5.72.

This report was published on August 10, 2021.

Target price is $5.77 Current Price is $6.44 Difference: minus $0.67 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.01, suggesting downside of -5.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.6, implying annual growth of -55.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.9, implying annual growth of 8.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIP    CENTURIA INDUSTRIAL REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $4.00

Jarden rates ((CIP)) as Buy (1) –

According to Jarden, Centuria Industrial REIT's FY21 results were line with forecast, but provided FY22 guidance is conservative. The broker considers the provided minimum funds from operations per share of 18.1 cents for the next year allows plenty of runway to upgrade earnings outlooks.

Jarden highlights continuing strong market conditions, low-risk core assets, covid provisioning, and potential upside from debt refinancing as drivers of a more positive outlook.

The broker also notes Centuria Industrial's second half cap rate compression was among the highest level of growth for a REIT on record. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $4.10 from $3.75.

This report was published on August 5, 2021.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $4.00 Difference: $0.1
If CIP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.93, suggesting downside of -1.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 17.80 cents and EPS of 18.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of -84.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.45%.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.1, implying annual growth of 5.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Moelis rates ((CIP)) as Hold (3) –

Centuria Industrial REIT reported funds from operations of $91.4m for FY21, equating to a per share price of 17.6 cents, and is now guiding to funds from operations per share in FY22 of at least 18.1 cents. 

Moelis notes the company has remained acquisition active, deploying $191m of capital into new acquisitions in the last six months, and the broker highlights more than half of these had not settled at years-end.

The broker also notes while occupancy reduced slightly since December, to 96.9% from 97.7%, average rent collections recovered to 99% for the half.

The Hold rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.89 from $3.69. 

This report was published on August 6, 2021.

Target price is $3.89 Current Price is $4.00 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If CIP meets the Moelis target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.93, suggesting downside of -1.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 17.50 cents and EPS of 18.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of -84.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 18.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.1, implying annual growth of 5.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CLW    CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $5.35

Jarden rates ((CLW)) as Buy (1) –

It is Jarden's view that the current valuation of Charter Hall Long Wale REIT does not reflect improving portfolio metrics, or the company's strong acquisition record and pipeline.

According to Jarden there is potential upside risk to the company's FY22 funds from operations growth guidance of 4.5%. The broker notes this number could be conservative given it does not reflect further leasing progress in Bowen Hills or further acquisitions.

Jarden is confident the company will continue to add $300-500m in acquisitions in FY22, and $200m per annum each in FY23 and FY24.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $5.75 from $5.50.

This report was published on August 9, 2021.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $5.35 Difference: $0.4
If CLW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.33, suggesting upside of 0.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 30.70 cents and EPS of 30.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of -72.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 31.80 cents and EPS of 31.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of 2.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CNI    CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $3.47

Jarden rates ((CNI)) as Buy (2) –

Centuria Capital Group's FY21 earning per share (EPS) of 12.0c was at the midpoint of guidance of 11.5-12.5c but below Jarden and consensus estimates.

While Centuria is now cycling higher levels from which to grow, Jarden believes the group is well-positioned to continue doing so, given the outlook for real assets remains strong.

Due to Centuria's broadened capital and real estate sub-sector base, together with dislocation from lockdowns, the broker expects the group to remain active, growing into recently established alternative subsectors.

The broker believes the FY22 outlook is strong, with guided EPS 13.2c and DPS 11.0c, both above consensus and prior Jarden, driven by continued funds under management (FUM) growth.

Jarden expects the group to go on outperforming the broker's broader REIT coverage, with a 9.7% 3-year EPS compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and scope to grow further.

Overweight rating is unchanged, and the target price increases to $3.15 from $2.90.

This report was published on August 11 2021.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.47 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If CNI meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.29, suggesting downside of -3.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 13.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.2, implying annual growth of -46.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.60 cents and EPS of 15.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of 14.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COF    CENTURIA OFFICE REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.59

Jarden rates ((COF)) as Neutral (3) –

Centuria Office REIT's FY21 funds from operations of 19.9 cents per share was at the top end of the company's guidance range, and a 1.2% beat on Jarden's estimate. However, Jarden notes the company continues to face tough conditions in the suburban office market. 

While Jarden highlights the company leased the highest percentage of its portfolio in seven years, at 18.1%, it notes the company locked in soft metrics driven by current leasing spreads and weak incentives.

Centuria Office REIT is guiding to FY22 funds from operations per share of 18.0 cents. Jarden highlights the company has been among the best performers within its REIT coverage on a three-month basis, but the broker sees better value elsewhere.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.35 from $2.15.

This report was published on August 3, 2021.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.59 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If COF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.48, suggesting downside of -4.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.50 cents and EPS of 17.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.3, implying annual growth of 22.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.53%.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.2, implying annual growth of 4.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CPU    COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $16.57

Jarden rates ((CPU)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden expects FY22 to be a transition year for Computershare ahead of outer-year earnings per share (EPS) accretion from its Wells Fargo US Corporate Trust acquisition – renamed Computershare Corporate Trust or 'CCT' – and strong leverage to a recovery in global central bank rates post-covid.

FY21 management net profit of US$284m was in line with Jarden and consensus.

The broker notes the company has provided FY22 constant forex earnings guidance of $497m and management EPS of 53.4cps, plus 8 months of the CCT acquisition, with implied EPS growth of 4.2% ex CCT and 1.8% post CCT.

Overweight rating and target price of $17.65 are both unchanged.

This report was published on August 10, 2021.

Target price is $17.65 Current Price is $16.57 Difference: $1.08
If CPU meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.36, suggesting upside of 10.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 61.21 cents and EPS of 77.45 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 61.21 cents and EPS of 82.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.1, implying annual growth of 14.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRN    CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC

Coal – Overnight Price: $1.20

Bell Potter rates ((CRN)) as Buy (1) –

Following reported first 2021 earnings of US$26m and a net loss after tax of US$96m, Bell Potter expects Coronado Global Resources second half 2021 to benefit from stronger operational performance and significant earnings leverage to the recent run in met coal prices.

The broker notes realised prices lag the benchmark index by around three months, hence the company is now seeing a substantial lift in cash flow.

Bell Potter expects the company to apply improved free cash flow to net debt reduction, ahead of any expansion works at Curragh or the possible payment of dividends.

Buy rating and the target price of $1.20 are both unchanged.

This report was published on August 11, 2021.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0
If CRN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.40, suggesting upside of 15.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.65 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.0.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 7.32 cents and EPS of 11.84 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.1, implying annual growth of 258.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CTD    CORPORATE TRAVEL MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $23.48

JP Morgan rates ((CTD)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

Given lockdowns in Australia and the cessation of JobKeeper, JP Morgan believes investors will re-focus back on cash burn and liquidity metrics. It's felt the acceleration of vaccination rates has de-risked the medium-term Australian travel outlook.

As Corporate Travel Management is trading in-line with the broker's valuation, the rating falls to Neutral from Overweight, while the target rises to $21 from $20. It's noted A&NZ travel is only a small proportion of the company’s volumes.

This report was published on August 9, 2021.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $23.48 Difference: minus $2.48 (current price is over target).
If CTD meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $23.65, suggesting upside of 1.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 60.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 52.2.

Forecast for FY23:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 115.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.7, implying annual growth of 114.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ELO    ELMO SOFTWARE LIMITED

Jobs & Skilled Labour Services – Overnight Price: $4.97

Jarden rates ((ELO)) as Buy (2) –

In Jarden's view, Elmo Software delivered a solid FY21 result. Highlights were revenue growth of 38% to total $69.1m, annual recurring revenue growth of 52% to total $83.8m, and a positive underlying earnings of $0.4m, a beat on the top end of guidance at -$2.5m.

Jarden does highlight that underlying earnings were impacted by $1.8m in government stimulus receipts and $2m in impairment of receivables. 

The company's FY22 revenue guidance of $90.5-95.m was also slightly ahead of Jarden's expectations, which the broker notes implies an earlier-than-expected flow through on operating leverage.

The broker updates earnings per share forecasts by 4% and 2% for FY22 and FY23 respectively, largely on upwards revisions on customer adds forecasts for Breathe.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $6.02 from $5.89.

This report was published on August 9, 2021. 

Target price is $6.02 Current Price is $4.97 Difference: $1.05
If ELO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 27.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 17.81.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 27.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 18.14.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Shaw and Partners rates ((ELO)) as Buy (1) –

While Shaw and Partners believe Elmo Software's FY22 guidance implies an uptick in organic growth and a slower rate of cost growth versus FY21, the broker also notes FY22 implied total cash costs look likely to be slightly higher than previously forecast.

On the cost-side, Shaw's estimates guidance implies circa $130m of total cash costs, once capitalised costs are added back and grant income is excluded.

Overall, Shaw upgrades FY22-24 revenue forecasts by 3-13% and total cash costs by 7-15%.

The broker believes the company continues to represent good value, trading on an FY22 EV/Revenue multiple of 4.9x, versus US peers.

The Buy rating and the target price of $8.50 are both retained.

This report was issued August 10, 2021.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $4.97 Difference: $3.53
If ELO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 50.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.82.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 34.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.24.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Wilsons rates ((ELO)) as Downgrade to Underweight from Market Weight (5) –

While Wilsons believes Elmo Software's FY21 result provided a strong showing on earnings and additional operating leverage in FY22 guidance, the broker forecasts an impending liquidity requirement for the company over the next 1-2 years.

Given that Wilsons' modelling highlights that Elmo will see a continued cash burn of $30m, cash payable earn-out of $28m, and a fully-drawn bank facility unable to support further losses, the broker's analysis suggests an equity raise is likely.

Wilsons downgrades Elmo Software to Underweight. Price target $4.33.

This report was published on August 10, 2021.

Target price is $4.33 Current Price is $4.97 Difference: minus $0.64 (current price is over target).
If ELO meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 37.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.22.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 26.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 18.54.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ERD    EROAD LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $5.94

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ERD)) as Buy (1) –

Eroad Ltd recently announced the acquisition of NZ-based Coretex for up to NZ$188m via a combination of cash and deferred scrip, coupled with an earn-out subject to growth/retention hurdles payable in FY23.

Coinciding with the announcement, the company also completed a NZ$64.4m equity raise at NZ$5.58ps as funding for the acquisition.

Canaccord Genuity believes Coretex to be a complementary telematics business to Eroad that adds immediate scale with operations in its three key markets, in line with the company's plans to have 250,000 installed units over the medium-term.

Based on the acquisition, the broker's FY22-24 annual recurring revenue forecasts have been increased by 50% each year.

Buy rating is unchanged, and price target increases to NZ$7.00 from NZ$6.20.

This report was published on August 10, 2021.

Current Price is $5.94. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.99 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 198.66.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.13 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 73.06.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FLT    FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $17.34

JP Morgan rates ((FLT)) as Underweight (5) –

Given lockdowns in Australia and the cessation of JobKeeper, JP Morgan believes investors will re-focus back on cash burn and liquidity metrics. It's felt the acceleration of vaccination rates has de-risked the medium-term Australian travel outlook.

The broker highlights the Flight Centre business model is undergoing permanent change, with a shift towards a more online leisure model. The Underweight rating and $12.50 target are retained.

While cost reductions in the near term are thought to make sense, the impact of the leisure network reduction on top-line growth are yet to be seen, notes the analyst. The broker cautions on a likely impact from the current South African unrest.

This report was published on August 9, 2021.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $17.34 Difference: minus $4.84 (current price is over target).
If FLT meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $16.72, suggesting downside of -5.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 69.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 25.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -51.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is -0.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of -0.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 95.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GMA    GENWORTH MORTGAGE INSURANCE AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $2.20

Goldman Sachs rates ((GMA)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs reports better-than-expected underwritten profit drove Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia's first half net profit beat and strong results. The company reported net profit of $76.4m, compared to the broker's forecast of $51.2m.

The broker updates earnings per share forecasts by 27.9%, 3.7% and 4.8% through to FY23. 

According to Goldman Sachs, Genworth provides investors with some of the best leverage to the recovering housing market among Australian financials.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.00 from $3.25.

This report was published on August 4, 2021.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.8
If GMA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.46.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 15.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.12.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GUD    G.U.D. HOLDINGS LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $10.74

Wilsons rates ((GUD)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons has described GUD Holdings' FY21 result as mixed, noting strong revenue growth and attractive cash conversation that was offset by a significant margin decline.

Underlying earnings were up 26% on the previous year and organic sales exceeded the broker's expectations. While the G4CVA acquisition contributed $39m in sales Wilsons notes this was a 10% decline on the previous year results. 

With FY22 guidance yet to be provided, the broker's forecasts remain largely unchanged. Revenue forecasts are up 6-8% on sustained volume growth into FY22.

The Market Weight rating is retained and the target decreases to $11.85 from $13.25.

This report was published on August 5, 2021.

Target price is $11.85 Current Price is $10.74 Difference: $1.11
If GUD meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.96, suggesting upside of 18.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 76.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.9, implying annual growth of 11.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 66.00 cents and EPS of 85.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.9, implying annual growth of 12.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLO    HELLOWORLD TRAVEL LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $2.07

JP Morgan rates ((HLO)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral (1) –

Given lockdowns in Australia and the cessation of JobKeeper, JP Morgan believes investors will re-focus back on cash burn and liquidity metrics. It's felt the acceleration of vaccination rates has de-risked the medium-term Australian travel outlook.

The broker raises its rating to Overweight from Neutral for Helloworld Travel. The company is levered to A&NZ international travel. The target price of $2.20 is unchanged.

Longer-term, post-pandemic, the company could benefit from an increase in travel complexity and lower competition as key competitors reduce their retail networks, points out the analyst.

This report was published on August 9, 2021.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: $0.13
If HLO meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 69.00.

Forecast for FY23:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.90.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG    INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $5.40

Goldman Sachs rates ((IAG)) as Neutral (3) –

While Insurance Australia Group's FY21 cash and reported net profit was in line with Goldman Sachs, what was of more interest to the broker was the disclosure that highlighted domestic intermediated underlying margin was broadly flat sequentially at 3.9%.

Equally noteworthy, the broker believes the running yield on technical reserves looked surprisingly solid in second half FY21, while gross underwriting expenses were up a further 4.2% on the previous period in second half FY21 following 7.1% in first half FY21.

The broker notes recent disclosures suggest the targeted margin improvement will largely be pricing-led, with little opportunity noted around expenses other than the non-recurrence of certain FY21 one-offs.

Neutral rating: target price $5.41.

This report was published on August 11, 2021.

Target price is $5.41 Current Price is $5.40 Difference: $0.01
If IAG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.50, suggesting upside of 3.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.5, implying annual growth of 8.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Jarden rates ((IAG)) as Buy (1) –

Despite preannouncing headline FY21 metrics, full results details increase Jarden's conviction on Insurance Group Australia's ability to deliver medium-term insurance trading ratio (ITR) expansion despite a significant step-up in its FY22 catastrophe budget, enhancing the quality of underling ITRs.

Jarden believes high-level reserve metrics suggest that the company has adopted more conservative reserving at June FY21, hence reducing the scope for further top-ups and lifting the broker's confidence in FY22 ITR guidance.

With the group trading at 17.9x FY22 PE, despite a 9% 2-year earnings per share (EPS) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and medium-term capital management upside potential, the broker sees compelling absolute and relative value.

Buy rating is unchanged and the target increases to $5.75 from $5.65.

This report was issued August 11, 2021.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $5.40 Difference: $0.35
If IAG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.50, suggesting upside of 3.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 28.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 31.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.5, implying annual growth of 8.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MFD    MAYFIELD CHILDCARE LIMITED

Childcare – Overnight Price: $1.10

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MFD)) as Buy (1) –

According to Canaccord Genuity, Mayfield Childcare's first half result was solid and in line with the broker's expectations. The company reported an 8.5% revenue increase to $16.9m, which drove a doubling of underlying earnings to $2.6m. 

The broker notes that even accounting for the $0.6m in government stimulus support, Mayfield Childcare's results were slightly ahead of the first half of FY19, which it views as positive given the impact of recent lockdowns on covid recovery.

Canaccord Genuity also noted that weekly occupancy had trended up from 64% in January to 71.3% in June, a positive trend moving into the second half.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.32 from $1.25.

This report was published on August 9, 2021.

Target price is $1.32 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.22
If MFD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.86.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.88.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN    MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $54.70

Goldman Sachs rates ((MIN)) as Neutral (3) –

Due largely to higher commodities division costs, Mineral Resources missed Goldman Sachs FY21 underlying earnings and net profit estimates by -6% and -9% respectively.

Net cash was $280m versus Goldman Sachs expected $186m, which was an improvement from $75m net debt at first half FY21.

Underlying earnings per share (EPS) of 587cps has resulted in a final dividend of 175cps, below the broker's 227cps forecast, representing a 50% payout in line with policy.

Looking to FY22 guidance, Goldman Sachs notes mining services volumes are expected to increase 15-20% versus the broker's 9% estimate. 

The company also guided to Capex of $650m versus the broker's $945m estimates.

Neutral rating is unchanged: Target price $61.00.

This report was issued August 11, 2021.

Target price is $61.00 Current Price is $54.70 Difference: $6.3
If MIN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $60.12, suggesting upside of 10.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 947.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 638.8, implying annual growth of -5.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 283.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 594.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 479.4, implying annual growth of -25.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 178.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MP1    MEGAPORT LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $16.95

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MP1)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes additional insights provided by Megaport into the company's FY21 performance, including revenue, monthly recurring revenue, cash flow, and key operating metrics.

Canaccord believes a feature of the second half FY21 result was the clear demonstration of operating leverage, with the broker estimating that nearly 90% of incremental revenue between first half and second half FY21 dropped to gross profit and 58% to earnings.

The broker's revenue, gross profit and opex forecasts for FY22 imply a 35% drop-through to earnings, which allows for further investments in opex.

Buy rating was unchanged and the target price increased to $19.70 from $19.35.

Canaccord has made minimal changes to FY22 and FY23 forecasts but has tweaked up the FY24 earnings forecast from $73.9m to $76.0m, which helps raise the broker's valuation.

This report was published on August 11, 2021.

Target price is $19.70 Current Price is $16.95 Difference: $2.75
If MP1 meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.72, suggesting upside of 4.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 211.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -16.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 269.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NCK    NICK SCALI LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $12.45

Wilsons rates ((NCK)) as Market Weight (3) –

Nick Scali's FY21 net profit of $84.2m was a 6.6% beat on the company's guidance, and Wilsons notes the company continues to experience above average order book growth.The broker sees signs of moderation in this trend, but notes it is slower than expected, and somewhat offset by online activity.

Given this, the broker is forecasting a slower maturation of the covid-related housing demand and a return to a more normal cost profile in FY23.

Wilsons updates underlying earnings forecasts by 6.6% and -1.8% for FY22 and FY23 respectively.

The Market Weight rating is retained and the target price increases to $11.35 from $9.60.

This report was published on August 6, 2021.

Target price is $11.35 Current Price is $12.45 Difference: minus $1.1 (current price is over target).
If NCK meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 62.50 cents and EPS of 73.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.92.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 62.50 cents and EPS of 71.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.32.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OFX    OFX GROUP LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $1.67

Canaccord Genuity rates ((OFX)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes a rollercoaster year for OFX Group, with a first half adversely impacted by covid, but with a sharp rebound in the second half. The broker also highlights the company's FY22 guidance implies continued momentum. 

The broker expects momentum to deliver accelerating Fee and Trading income growth in the first half of FY22. Further, it was noted that execution of a$50m enterprise pipeline, that includes six negotiation-stage prospects, could be a potential near-term catalyst for the company.

According to Canaccord, OFX Group's large stock discount compared to competitors implies the mergers and acquisitions value of the company. 

The Buy rating and target price of $1.65 are retained.

The report was published on August 6, 2021.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.67 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If OFX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.80 cents and EPS of 5.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.93.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.94.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PNI    PINNACLE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $16.44

Wilsons rates ((PNI)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight (1) –

Pinnacle Investment Management Group's FY21 net profit of $67m was a 107.1% year-on-year increase and a 7.2% beat on consensus forecasts. Wilsons notes affiliate gross revenue and margin performance metrics were the stand out from the company's FY21 result

Wilsons considers affiliate margin growth to 42.7% to be an early sign of further leverage available to the company. The broker updates net profit forecasts by 18.3% and 25.3% for FY22 and FY23 respectively.

The rating is upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight and the target price increases to $16.50 from $11.90.

This report was published on August 6, 2021.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $16.44 Difference: $0.06
If PNI meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.00, suggesting downside of -8.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 38.80 cents and EPS of 46.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.6, implying annual growth of 8.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 45.90 cents and EPS of 54.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.6, implying annual growth of 16.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REA    REA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $155.57

Goldman Sachs rates ((REA)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs notes compared to the previous year REA Group's FY21 sales were up 13%, underlying earnings were up 19% and net profit was up 18%. 

The broker also highlighted that the company reported a record level of depth penetration in the second half.

Looking ahead, July listings were down -3% nationally, impacted by lockdowns. Goldman Sachs notes continued investment in Elara aims to drive audience and revenue growth. The broker forecasts $90-96m in depreciation and amortisation in FY22. 

The Buy rating is retained with a target price of $196.00.

This report was published on August 6, 2021.

Target price is $196.00 Current Price is $155.57 Difference: $40.43
If REA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $164.65, suggesting upside of 6.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 260.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 59.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 294.2, implying annual growth of 20.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 158.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 52.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 304.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 51.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 357.6, implying annual growth of 21.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 190.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Jarden rates ((REA)) as Buy (2) –

While REA Groups' FY21 results were largely in line with expectations and driven by housing market momentum, Jarden notes potential headwinds to listing volumes given lockdowns is causing an uncertain FY22 outlook for the company.

Jarden has updated FY22 underlying earnings forecast by -5.5% and net profit by -10.9%, and FY23 underlying earnings forecast by -4.1% and net profit by -7.5%. 

The broker notes forecast downgrades are driven by an expected softer listing environment for FY22, expected  continued operating leverage contraction on higher wage costs, and an expected higher effective tax rate.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $178.00 from $180.00.

This report was issued on August 6, 2021.

Target price is $178.00 Current Price is $155.57 Difference: $22.43
If REA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $164.65, suggesting upside of 6.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 142.30 cents and EPS of 268.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 57.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 294.2, implying annual growth of 20.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 158.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 52.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 179.80 cents and EPS of 339.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 357.6, implying annual growth of 21.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 190.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMD    RESMED INC

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $39.30

Goldman Sachs rates ((RMD)) as Neutral (3) –

With ResMed guiding to a FY22 revenue benefit of US$300-350m from the Philips recall, Goldman Sachs notes any constraint on further revenue benefit appears to be a supply, rather than demand issue, given Philips generates annual device sales of US$750-800, and this benefit guidance may be conservative.

The broker updates underlying earnings for FY22 by 15% and for FY23 by 4%, but notes that base business continues to track below pre-covid levels.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $36.20 from $28.40.

This report was published on August 8, 2021. 

Target price is $36.20 Current Price is $39.30 Difference: minus $3.1 (current price is over target).
If RMD meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $37.49, suggesting downside of -3.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 22.62 cents and EPS of 85.16 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 21.29 cents and EPS of 83.83 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.4, implying annual growth of 13.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Jarden rates ((RMD)) as Buy (2) –

ResMed's fourth quarter results are the first look into the opportunity provided by a global recall of devices by Philips, with the company reporting $876m in revenue, a 7% beat on Jarden's forecast.

The broker does note a decline in the gross profit margin, reflecting the shift away from higher margin masks to lower margin devices. 

Philips has guided to a 16 month timeline to correct recalled devices, and Resmed expects to benefit $300-350m in additional device sales on top of the company's expected recovery growth post-covid.

The broker updates earnings per share estimates by 2.4%, 5,4% and 4.3% for FY22, FY23 and FY24 respectively. 

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $38.23 from $34.99.

This report was published on August 7, 2021.

Target price is $38.23 Current Price is $39.30 Difference: minus $1.07 (current price is over target).
If RMD meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $37.49, suggesting downside of -3.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 23.77 cents and EPS of 84.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 28.68 cents and EPS of 100.15 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.4, implying annual growth of 13.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Wilsons rates ((RMD)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight (1) –

It is Wilsons' view that the Philips recall is leading to a permanent structural shift in market share, with ResMed guiding to a $300-350m benefit in FY22.

The broker notes fourth quarter flow generator sales grew 67% on the previous corresponding period, with a $60-70m benefit in the quarter from the Philips recall. 

Wilsons has core business earnings at a 15% compound annual growth rate over the next three years, and notes ResMed's Respiratory Care strategy will have time to develop behind the scenes and ultimately drive long-term medical device and software sales growth.

The rating is upgraded to Overweight and the target price increases to $43.30 from $28.50.

This report was published on August 9, 2021.

Target price is $43.30 Current Price is $39.30 Difference: $4
If RMD meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $37.49, suggesting downside of -3.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 22.49 cents and EPS of 83.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 23.15 cents and EPS of 94.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.4, implying annual growth of 13.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLX    SILEX SYSTEMS LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $1.50

Euroz Hartleys rates ((SLX)) as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (2) –

Euroz Hartleys initiates coverage on Silex Systems. The Silex process is a proprietary laser isotope separation technology used to enrich uranium, silicon and other isotopes, and is the only privately held information classified by the Australian and US governments.

Following the recent restructure of Global Laser Enrichment LLC, of which Silex Systems owns a 51% stake, the company has exclusive rights to the commercialisation of the Silex laser uranium enrichment technology and to an approximate 300,000 tonnes of depleted uranium hexafluoride tails in Paducah.

Global Laser Enrichment LLC aims to construct a laser enrichment project to re-enrich the uranium hexafluoride tails to natural grade uranium. The broker estimates Silex Systems' stake in the the Paducah project to be $334m.

The broker initiates with a Speculative Buy rating and a target price of $1.80. 

This report was published on July 27, 2021.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $0.3
If SLX meets the Euroz Hartleys target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUN    SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $12.66

Jarden rates ((SUN)) as Buy (2) –

Suncorp Group has reported net profit of $1,064m for FY21, an approximate $75m or 7.5% beat on Jarden's forecast. The broker notes the result was led by stronger profit across Insurance Australia.

Jarden notes General Insurance top line is performing well, and that the company's multi brand General Insurance strategy has been successful in delivering second half growth. It is Jarden's view that to reach strong medium-term targets, Suncorp Group needs uplift in the Personal lines. 

Jarden has updated earnings per share forecasts by 4.1% and 3.4% for FY22 and FY23 respectively. 

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $12.90 from $12.40.

This report was published on August 10, 2021. 

Target price is $12.90 Current Price is $12.66 Difference: $0.24
If SUN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.42, suggesting upside of 6.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 73.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.6, implying annual growth of -7.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 71.00 cents and EPS of 86.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.3, implying annual growth of 11.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TCL    TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $14.32

Jarden rates ((TCL)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden attributes the correction in Transurban Group's share price since the release of second-half FY21 results, which were broadly in line with estimates, to investor concerns over the near-term operating conditions and uncertainty on the West Gate Tunnel cost overrun.

Jarden estimates the company could lose around $140-150m of toll revenue in July and August on the back of the various lockdowns imposed in Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane, all with different durations.

Jarden suspects the uncertain near-term operating conditions have prevented the company from providing guidance on FY22. distribution. However, the company's management has flagged operating cost inflation in FY22.

Having concluded that favorable refinancing activity in FY21 may only partially help to offset the near-term operational challenges, the broker has lowered FY22 consolidated earnings estimates by -6.3% to $1,968m.

The Neutral rating is unchanged and the target is lowered to $14.10 from $14.80.

This report was issued August 10, 2021.

Target price is $14.10 Current Price is $14.32 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $14.63, suggesting upside of 2.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 49.40 cents and EPS of 4.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 333.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 169.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 58.10 cents and EPS of 19.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 74.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of 146.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 68.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WEB    WEBJET LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $5.95

JP Morgan rates ((WEB)) as Neutral (3) –

Given lockdowns in Australia and the cessation of JobKeeper, JP Morgan believes investors will re-focus back on cash burn and liquidity metrics. It's felt the acceleration of vaccination rates has de-risked the medium-term Australian travel outlook.

The broker points out Webjet's strategy is to leverage its brand strength and prepare for a domestic-led tourism recovery while it waits for international markets to progressively reopen. The broker retains its Neutral rating and $5 target price.

This report was published on August 9, 2021.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $5.95 Difference: minus $0.95 (current price is over target).
If WEB meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.84, suggesting downside of -1.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 66.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -6.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

As part of emerging new trends overseas, The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition also includes providers of sponsored research. Readers should bear in mind, sponsored research, while not necessarily of lower quality, has the embedded complication that the company that is the subject of the research has paid for this research. Providers of sponsored research that can potentially be included in this Report are Breakaway Research, Edison Investment Research, Independent Investment Research, NDF Research, Pitt Street Research, and TMT Analytics.

Decisions about inclusions in this Report are made independently of the providers of stock market research and at full discretion of the team of journalists responsible for content at FNArena. Inclusion does not equal endorsement, in any way, shape or form. This Report is provided for informational purposes only.

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CHARTS

ARF AZJ BWP CBA CCP CGF CIP CLW CNI COF CPU CRN CTD ELO ERD FLT GMA GUD HLO IAG MFD MIN MP1 NCK OFX PNI REA RMD SLX SUN TCL WEB

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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CIP - CENTURIA INDUSTRIAL REIT

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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CPU - COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED

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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CTD - CORPORATE TRAVEL MANAGEMENT LIMITED

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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GUD - G.U.D. HOLDINGS LIMITED

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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IAG - INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MFD - MAYFIELD CHILDCARE LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MIN - MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MP1 - MEGAPORT LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NCK - NICK SCALI LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: OFX - OFX GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: REA - REA GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RMD - RESMED INC

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SLX - SILEX SYSTEMS LIMITED

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