Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – May 07, 2021

This story features AEROMETREX LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AMX

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AMX   AVN   BHP   BKL   BWP   CIP (2)   CLU   CNI   COF (2)   CQE   CRN   DGH   GPT   HUB   ILU   LRK   MAD   NST   OZL   PNR   RIO   SGP   SMP   STO   TIE   WPL   WSA  

AMX    AEROMETREX LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $0.85

Taylor Collison rates ((AMX)) as Outperform (2) –

Due to a -15% decline in revenue (resulting from a lack of government projects and delays by major corporates), and an increase in marketing and employee costs totaling $2.5m on an annualised basis, Aerometrex Ltd’s first half 2021 trading earnings (EBITDA) was down -69% to $0.7m.

Pleasingly Taylor Collison observes, indecision on projects going ahead from governments and corporates – which caused much of the decline – has reversed through the early part of the second half with project spending lifting meaningfully.

The broker expects FY22 to be a more representative view of Aerometrex’s current state of business with earnings (EBITDA) to better reflect corresponding revenues in line with the recent step-up in employee and marketing costs.

While Taylor Collison believes a significant discount is justified given Nearmap ((NEA)) holds the incumbent market position, the broker maintains the current -78% discount is too deep, particularly as Aerometrex is expected to take market share in the subscription space via MetroMap.

Until now, Taylor Collison believed future “blue-sky” opportunities were somewhat built into the share price. But at 8.3x FY22 enterprise value to earnings, the broker believes investors are now only paying for the current business operations.

Taylor Collison has an Outperform on Aerometrex and a target price of $1.76.

This report was released on April 14, 2021.

Target price is $1.76 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $0.91
If AMX meets the Taylor Collison target it will return approximately 107% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 425.00.

Forecast for FY22:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.42.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AVN    AVENTUS GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.96

Jarden rates ((AVN)) as Initiation of coverage with Underweight (4) –

Jarden likes passive yield REIT’s for attractive valuations, total shareholder returns and support from demand for real Australian assets. Also, there’s considered capacity to fund investment and growth. 

Some REIT’s are trading at a discount to valuation which may drive potential M&A activity, explains the broker. Overall, Jarden prefers exposure to non-discretionary Retail for the ability to boost growth with developments and acquisitions.

Jarden initiates coverage of Aventus Group with an Underweight rating and a $2.25 price target. The broker likes the large format retail (LFR) category and expects a ramp-up in growth profile in the coming 12 months through the development pipeline.

However, the analyst notes the shares are trading at a substantial premium to net tangible assets and with a lower growth profile than many of its passive REIT peers.

This report was published on April 14, 2021.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $2.96 Difference: minus $0.71 (current price is over target).
If AVN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.92, suggesting downside of -0.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 19.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.9, implying annual growth of 84.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 18.20 cents and EPS of 20.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.7, implying annual growth of 4.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP    BHP GROUP

Bulks – Overnight Price: $49.80

Shaw and Partners rates ((BHP)) as Buy (1) –

All BHP Group units exceeded or met Shaw & Partners expectations for the March quarter 2021, with guidance having been tightened/move higher in key areas – copper, oil and iron ore – as the miner heads into the last three months of FY21.

While petroleum guidance for the FY21 remains unchanged at between 95 and 102 MMboe, iron ore volumes are expected to be in the upper half of the guidance range as a result of strong performance at WAIO.

Copper guidance for the 2021 financial year increased to between 1,535kt and 1,660kt from between 1,510kt and 1,645kt.

Buy rating and target price of $47.00.

This report was published on April 22, 2021.

Target price is $47.00 Current Price is $49.80 Difference: minus $2.8 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $47.71, suggesting downside of -4.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 409.04 cents and EPS of 379.01 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 417.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 324.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 281.29 cents and EPS of 281.97 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 419.7, implying annual growth of 0.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 321.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BKL    BLACKMORES LIMITED

Health & Nutrition – Overnight Price: $68.53

Goldman Sachs rates ((BKL)) as Neutral (3) –

Blackmores faces ongoing discounting pressure in the market according to Goldman Sachs, but the company plans to refrain from deep discounting, noting that excess cold and flu products from last season make competition irrational. 

The broker predicts this increased competitive pressure, as well as delays in international travel, student return and lagging recovery in Daigou channels, will reflect in a slower recovery for the company and have updated earnings forecasts by -8.6% and -5.1% for the 2022 and 2023 financial years. 

Blackmores' expansion into India is proceeding well according to Goldman Sachs, despite the region's current covid-19 issues. 

Further, following completed integration of the manufacturing to supply chain the company expects to increase production to 3bn doses next year, up from 2.5bn. 

The Neutral rating is retained with the target decreasing to $74.80 from $78.40. 

This report was published on April 23, 2021.

Target price is $74.80 Current Price is $68.53 Difference: $6.27
If BKL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $73.83, suggesting upside of 6.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 72.00 cents and EPS of 179.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 169.2, implying annual growth of 63.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.1.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 111.00 cents and EPS of 221.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 239.2, implying annual growth of 41.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 125.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BWP    BWP TRUST

REITs – Overnight Price: $4.20

Jarden rates ((BWP)) as Initiation of coverage with Sell (5) –

Jarden likes passive yield REIT’s for attractive valuations, total shareholder returns and support from demand for real Australian assets. Also, there’s considered capacity to fund investment and growth. 

Some REIT’s are trading at a discount to valuation which may drive potential M&A activity, explains the broker. Overall, Jarden prefers exposure to non-discretionary Retail for the ability to boost growth with developments and acquisitions.

Jarden initiates coverage with a Sell rating for BWP Trust and a $3.30 price target. Relative to passive peers under the broker's coverage, the Trust offers a lower yield, lower growth (2-3%) and is trading at a bigger premium to net tangible assets.

The analyst highlights a potential risk of a meaningful shift to online, which could reduce Bunnings' space requirements in the medium term.

This report was published on April 14, 2021.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $4.20 Difference: minus $0.9 (current price is over target).
If BWP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.65, suggesting downside of -13.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 18.30 cents and EPS of 17.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of -44.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 18.50 cents and EPS of 18.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.3, implying annual growth of 1.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIP    CENTURIA INDUSTRIAL REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.47

Jarden rates ((CIP)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Jarden likes passive yield REIT’s for attractive valuations, total shareholder returns and support from demand for real Australian assets. Also, there’s considered capacity to fund investment and growth. 

Some REIT’s are trading at a discount to valuation which may drive potential M&A activity, explains the broker. Overall, Jarden prefers exposure to non-discretionary Retail for the ability to boost growth with developments and acquisitions.

The broker prefers exposure to Commercial through Centuria Industrial REIT, which should benefit from the strong growth in logistics/e-commerce/supply chain efficiency theme. It's assumed delivery of consistent fixed rental increases will drive improving rental growth.

Additionally, value-add to existing assets is expected as asset quality continues to improve. Jarden initiates with a Buy rating and $3.75 target.

This report was published on April 14, 2021.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.47 Difference: $0.28
If CIP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.58, suggesting upside of 2.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 17.50 cents and EPS of 17.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of -21.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 17.80 cents and EPS of 18.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.8, implying annual growth of 2.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((CIP)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

Following successful leasing outcomes across 5.3% of Centuria Industrial REIT’s portfolio during the March quarter, occupancy increased 110bps to 98.8%.

With the outcome of the Milestone transaction having recently occurred at a headline yield of 4%, and implied asset yield of 4.4% adjusting for payments for the platform, Moelis expects Centuria’s net tangible asset value to benefit from further cap rate compression.

The broker notes, with key exposures to manufacturing, transport and logistics (the online retail thematic), and consumer staples, Centuria remains a highly attractive exposure.

Trading at a 4% premium to an understated NTA, and offering a 5.0% distribution per unit (DPU) yield, Moelis views Centuria as an ongoing beneficiary of strong market thematics.

Despite the strong tailwind support, Moelis’s target price implies a total return of 9.6%, and as such the broker moves to a Hold rating from a Buy.

The target price increases to $3.62 from $3.36.

This report was published on April 23, 2021.

Target price is $3.62 Current Price is $3.47 Difference: $0.15
If CIP meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.58, suggesting upside of 2.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 17.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of -21.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 17.50 cents and EPS of 17.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.8, implying annual growth of 2.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CLU    CLUEY LTD

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $1.20

Bell Potter rates ((CLU)) as Buy (1) –

Cluey’s key operating metrics reflect another strong (March) quarter of growth in-line with Bell Potter’s expectations, and the broker estimates significant acceleration across the quarter with sessions per month increasing from around 11,000 in January to circa 22,000 in February and 28,000 in March.

New student enrollments – a key forward growth indicator – reached 5,848, up 144% versus the previous period and 15% ahead of the Company’s prospectus forecasts.

Overall, Cluey delivered 61,060 student sessions across the quarter, an increase of 198% versus the previous period and in-line with Bell Potter (61,440).

The broker expects a minimum of 28,000 student sessions to be delivered across each month of the final quarter.

Buy rating and target price of $1.80 remain intact.

This report was published on April 21, 2021.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0.6
If CLU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 12.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.76.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 22.64.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CNI    CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $2.72

Goldman Sachs rates ((CNI)) as Neutral (3) –

Centuria Capital Group has announced it has entered into a Bid Implementation Deed with Primewest Group, signifying a potential merge via an off-market takeover offer. The potential merger could result in total group assets under management of $15.5bn. 

According to Goldman Sachs a combined platform would provide enhanced geographic and sector diversification, allowing for Centuria's foray into three new sectors of agriculture, daily retail needs and large format retail. The transaction would further provide new growth opportunities and expanded distribution channels.  

The merger would result in $14.6bn of real estate funds under management and a real estate platform with $9.4bn unlisted assets under management,  with 72% of total assets focused on office and industrial sectors.

The merger terms outline Primewest security holders receiving $1.51 per Primewest security. 

The Neautral rating and target price of $2.59 are retained. 

This report was published on April 19, 2021.

Target price is $2.59 Current Price is $2.72 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If CNI meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.76, suggesting upside of 3.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.6, implying annual growth of 165.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.7, implying annual growth of 0.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COF    CENTURIA OFFICE REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.24

Jarden rates ((COF)) as Initiation of coverage with Neutral (3) –

Jarden likes passive yield REIT’s for attractive valuations, total shareholder returns and support from demand for real Australian assets. Also, there’s considered capacity to fund investment and growth. 

Some REIT’s are trading at a discount to valuation which may drive potential M&A activity, explains the broker. Overall, Jarden prefers exposure to non-discretionary Retail for the ability to boost growth with developments and acquisitions.

Centuria Office REIT is well positioned to deliver steady growth but in the near term may struggle from the negative sentiment on Suburban Office. Relatively high gearing is also considered to make add-on investments harder.

It’s assumed the REIT will realise fixed annual rent increases though it is also subject to larger single tenant expiries that pose timing-related and mark-to-market rent-related risks. Jarden initiates with a Neutral rating and $2.15 target.

This report was published on April 14, 2021.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $2.24 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If COF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.17, suggesting downside of -3.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 16.50 cents and EPS of 19.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.4, implying annual growth of 286.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.50 cents and EPS of 17.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.3, implying annual growth of -5.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((COF)) as Buy (1) –

Given that just 8.1% of net lettable area (NLA) was due for expiry in the 18 months from January 2021 to June 2022, Moelis believes the 16,600sqm of space (leasing terms) agreed on across 12 deals, representing 5.8% of NLA marked a strong third quarter 2021 operating update by Centuria Office REIT.  

Commenting on the result, the broker notes, Vacancy (by income) fell from 8.5% in December 2020 to 7.7% in March 2021, with the balance of near-term expiries meaningfully de-risked.

Moelis has increased earnings forecasts slightly, accounting for stronger than expected leasing outcomes.

Moelis suspects the 15% discount Centuria Office trades at to net tangible asset value most likely reflects some of the fundamental headwinds facing the office market.

The broker notes, transactional evidence through covid remains robust, with strong evidence underpinning current book values.

Moelis Buy rating and target price of $2.26 retained.

This report was published on April 22, 2021.

Target price is $2.27 Current Price is $2.24 Difference: $0.03
If COF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.17, suggesting downside of -3.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 16.50 cents and EPS of 19.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.4, implying annual growth of 286.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.50 cents and EPS of 17.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.3, implying annual growth of -5.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CQE    CHARTER HALL SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE REIT

Childcare – Overnight Price: $3.23

Jarden rates ((CQE)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (2) –

Jarden likes passive yield REITs for attractive valuations, total shareholder returns and support from demand for real Australian assets. Also, there’s considered capacity to fund investment and growth. 

Some REITs are trading at a discount to valuation which may drive potential M&A activity, explains the broker. Overall, Jarden prefers exposure to non-discretionary retail for the ability to boost growth with developments and acquisitions. 

Jarden likes Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT for exposure to the broad Social Infrastructure space. Above average funds from operations and dividend growth are expected to be delivered. The broker initiates with an Overweight rating and $3.45 target.

The analyst believes the REIT is now trading at a discount to other Triple Net / Long WALE REITs. It's expected this discount
will close as the company delivers on its earnings. (Triple NET is where the tenant assumes responsibility for certain expenses).

This report was published on April 14, 2021.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: $0.22
If CQE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 15.70 cents and EPS of 16.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.70.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 17.40 cents and EPS of 17.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.15.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRN    CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES

Coal – Overnight Price: $0.53

Goldman Sachs rates ((CRN)) as Buy (1) –

Coronado Global Resources reported a 2% quarter-on-quarter increase in salable coal production during their first quarter of 2021, largely due to strong recovery from the Logan mine.

Despite this, coal sales were down 8% quarter-on-quarter following maintenance issues at Curragh and rail delays in the US, but Goldman Sachs forecasts production increases and lower costs throughout 2021. 

The broker also predicts improved prices on met coal throughout the year, and Coronado has announced they are working to generate additional liquidity in coming quarters. 

The Buy rating is retained and target price decreases to $1.30 from $1.40. 

This report was published on April 20, 2021. 

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.77
If CRN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 145% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.13, suggesting upside of 112.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 1.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DGH    DESANE GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Overnight Price: $1.21

Taylor Collison rates ((DGH)) as Buy unchanged (1) –

While Desane trades at a 15% discount to its net tanglibe asset (NTA) value, Taylor Collison believes there is potentially around $0.75 per share of development revaluation upside on a pre-tax basis.

The Sydney-based property investment and property development (residential and mixed-use) business has received planning approval to build a five-story apartment complex comprising 46 residential properties. Once completed, the broker’s internal modelling suggests $0.18 per share upside.

Desane has received planning approval to build nine apartments on top of two commercial premises, which based on Taylor Collison’s modelling could present upside of $0.06 per share.

Desane is also currently engaged in discussions with the Penrith Council relating to the rezoning of the property to medium density residential. According to the broker’s modelling, the development and sale of a potential 150-250 units could result in upside to the NTA of $0.50 per share.

Buy rating maintained. The NTA for FY21 is estimated to be $1.46.

This report was published on April 13, 2021.

Current Price is $1.21. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 4.50 cents and EPS of 6.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.54.

Forecast for FY21:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 7.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.51.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GPT    GPT GROUP

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $4.60

Goldman Sachs rates ((GPT)) as Buy (1) –

GPT Group has provided initial guidance for 2021 funds from operations growth of 8% on the previous corresponding period, ahead of its first quarter results release. 

According to Goldman Sachs the guidance indicates funds from operations of 30.8 cents per share for 2021, below the brokers forecast of 33.7 cents per share. 

GPT also expects dividend per share growth of 12% on the previous corresponding period, equating to dividend per share of 25.2 cents as compared to the brokers forecast of 25.7 cents. 

Goldman Sachs awaits further details on the assumptions underpinning the guidance. 

The Buy rating is retained and target price decreases to $5.23 from $5.37.

The report was published on April 19, 2020.

Target price is $5.23 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $0.63
If GPT meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.69, suggesting upside of 1.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 35.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.4, implying annual growth of 5.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HUB    HUB24 LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $22.73

Goldman Sachs rates ((HUB)) as Buy (1) –

Hub24's third quarter updates revealed record net custody flows of $1.9bn have resulted in custody funds under administration growth of 136% on the previous corresponding period to $35.6bn

.Non-custody funds under management also increased 69% on the prior quarter to $15.8bn. 

The company noted its new business pipeline continues to grow, with the IFL private label solution to be launched in the next quarter and a pilot stage bionic advice solution with Aberdeen Standard Investments underway, and 478 new advisers were added in the third quarter. 

Based on results Goldman Sachs expects Hub24 to deliver funds under administration in the top end of their $43bn-$49bn dollar guidance by 2022.  

The Buy rating is retained with the target price rising to $26.83 from $24.58.

This report was published on April 20, 2021.

Target price is $26.83 Current Price is $22.73 Difference: $4.1
If HUB meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.06, suggesting upside of 8.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 81.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.0, implying annual growth of 113.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 85.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 50.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.9, implying annual growth of 60.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 53.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ILU    ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED

Mineral Sands – Overnight Price: $8.23

Goldman Sachs rates ((ILU)) as Buy (1) –

Following Iluka Resources' first quarter results, Goldman Sachs has forecast sales to increase by 22% during 2021 to a total of 292 thousand tonnes as Chinese zircon import prices strengthened in the first two months of the year. 

Zircon prices strengthened through January and February, with export prices in Africa up to US$1,300 per tonne and exports from Indonesia up to US$1,370 per tonne, with Goldman Sachs forecasting another price increase during 2021. 

Chinese zircon import volume, which represents around 60% of Iluka's customer base, increased 20% year on year during January and February, but were slightly below volumes of the last quarter. 

The Buy rating is retained and target price increases to $8.30 from $8.00. 

This report was published on April 19, 2021. 

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $8.23 Difference: $0.07
If ILU meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.86, suggesting downside of -19.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 20.40 cents and EPS of 40.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.0, implying annual growth of -92.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 9.10 cents and EPS of 43.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.0, implying annual growth of 31.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LRK    LARK DISTILLING CO LTD

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $2.94

Moelis rates ((LRK)) as Buy (1) –

Having delivered third quarter 2021 gross profit margins of 72.4%, Moelis believes Lark Distilling Co is well on track to achieving FY21 net revenue guidance of $12m, and deliver a maiden earnings in FY21 of around $1.3m.

To reflect the strong results to date and continuing sales momentum, Moelis has increase FY21 net sales forecasts by 3% to $12.6m (was: $12.2m); and FY22 net sales forecasts by 9% to $24.8m (was: $22.7m).

The broker has also increased gross profit margin assumptions for second half 2021 to 66.0% (FY22 average 68.5%).

Buy rating is maintained, and the price target increases to $3.06 from $2.65.

The report was issued April 23, 2021.

Target price is $3.06 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: $0.12
If LRK meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 267.27.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.23.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAD    MADER GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.95

Euroz Hartleys rates ((MAD)) as Buy (1) –

Despite covid, Euroz Hartleys is looking for Mader Group, a niche provider of specialist maintenance services for mobile and fixed plant equipment, to deliver $300m in revenue in 2021, up from $273m in 2020 and $226m in 2019.

While the US continues to grow strongly, at $10.6m for first half 2021 compared to full year 2020 at $13.8m and $1m in 2019, the broker believes there is clear and present opportunity to take this replicable model into Canada.

Euroz Hartleys upgrades to a Buy from a Speculative Buy rating, and the price target of $1.21 remains unchanged.

This report was published on April 9, 2021.

Target price is $1.21 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $0.26
If MAD meets the Euroz Hartleys target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Euroz Hartleys forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 9.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.22.

Forecast for FY22:

Euroz Hartleys forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 10.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.88.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NST    NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LTD

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $10.68

Shaw and Partners rates ((NST)) as Buy (1) –

Despite reporting a softer March Quarter, Northern Star has confirmed FY21 pro-forma production guidance of 1.5-1.7M ounces at costs of $1,370-1,470/oz (Australian Operations) and $1,200-1,400/oz (Pogo Operations).

Optimisation work for the merger with Saracen is well-advanced to lift the production profile to the highest-margin ounces and deliver an estimated $1.5-2.0bn of net present value over next 10 years.

Given FY21 guidance has been maintained, Shaw & Partners has made no earnings changes following Northern Star’s operations data for the March quarter.

While there are many catalysts ahead, the broker notes an extensive exploration campaign to inform Reserves and Resources update is set for release later this month (May 2021).

Buy rating and target price of $19.00.

This report was published on April 22, 2021.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $10.68 Difference: $8.32
If NST meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 78% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.86, suggesting upside of 16.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 63.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.8, implying annual growth of 36.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 118.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.1, implying annual growth of 34.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OZL    OZ MINERALS LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $24.78

Goldman Sachs rates ((OZL)) as Neutral (3) –

OZ Minerals reported a weaker-than-expected first quarter. Quarter-on-quarter, copper production was down -9% and gold production was down -18% due to lower head grades across all three mines. 

Despite this Goldman Sachs has maintained the 2021 production guidance which implies a 30-35% year-on-year increase for copper and around -20% year-on-year for gold. 

The $500m expansion of the Prominent Hill underground mine is expected in the third quarter, with capital expenditure spent during 2022 and 2023 to accommodate growth to a 6 million tonnes per annum operation. 

The Neutral rating is retained with a target price of $23.70. 

This report was published on April 22, 2021.

Target price is $23.70 Current Price is $24.78 Difference: minus $1.08 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $20.79, suggesting downside of -18.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 114.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 109.5, implying annual growth of 67.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.4.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 197.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 123.0, implying annual growth of 12.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PNR    PANTORO LTD

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.20

Bell Potter rates ((PNR)) as Buy (1) –

Due to heavy wet season rainfall and lower mined grades, Pantoro Limited has reported production for the March quarter 2021 of 8.4koz gold at All-In-Sustaining Costs (AISC) of $1,644 at the lower end of production guidance (8.5-9.5koz), and at the midpoint of AISC guidance of $1,550-$1,750/oz.

Pantoro’s cash and gold balance at end March was $54.4m, down from $64.9m at December end, and the company remains debt free and unhedged.

Following the March quarterly result, Bell Potter has lowered both FY21 and FY22 production forecasts as the Norseman ramp-up is pushed back by one quarter. However, this is partially offset by a higher gold price, with earnings lowered 20% in FY21 and increased 22% in FY22.

With upside of 31.7% from the last closing share price ($0.205) to target price, Bell Potter retains a Buy rating, and the target price reduces to $0.27 from $0.28.

This report was published on April 21, 2021.

Target price is $0.27 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.07
If PNR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO    RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks – Overnight Price: $125.76

Goldman Sachs rates ((RIO)) as Neutral (3) –

Rio Tinto has reported a better-than-expected start to the year, shipping 77.8 million tonnes of iron ore from the Pilbara, which despite being down -12% quarter-on-quarter represents levels not seen during the first quarter since 2018. Production from Hope Downs and West Angelas were better than expected. 

Copper production was down -9% quarter-on-quarter to 120 thousand tonnes, but was in line with expectations, with production from the Escondida mine down 14% quarter-on-quarter due to expected labour tightness in Chile. 

The Neutral rating is retained and target price decreases -0.3% to $122.30. 

This report was published on April 20, 2021.

Target price is $122.30 Current Price is $125.76 Difference: minus $3.46 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $125.71, suggesting downside of -0.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 1160.09 cents and EPS of 1561.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1589.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1129.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.0.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 846.19 cents and EPS of 1124.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1143.8, implying annual growth of -28.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 809.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGP    STOCKLAND

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $4.61

Goldman Sachs rates ((SGP)) as Buy (1) –

Stockland has announced it is tracking towards the top end of its funds from operation guidance of 32.5-33.1 cents per share for the financial year following third quarter results. 

According to Goldman Sachs residential sales rates have remained strong through the quarter with retail sales continuing to improve, and the broker forecasts Stockland will exceed its 2021 guidance. 

The broker also noted around $15m in residential funds from operation have been pushed to 2022 or 2023 following the consolidation of an additional stage at the Elara project during the third quarter. 

The Buy rating is retained and target price increases to $4.53 from $4.45. 

This report was published on April 20, 2021. 

Target price is $4.53 Current Price is $4.61 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If SGP meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.61, suggesting upside of 0.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.5, implying annual growth of 6.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SMP    SMARTPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.82

CCZ Equities rates ((SMP)) as Buy (1) –

Driven by strong terminals growth in the Australian segment, Smartpay Holdings reported fourth quarter (year ending March) revenue of NZ$10m, up 36% versus the prior period.

Commenting on the result, CCZ Equities notes the fourth quarter-YEM21 Australian active terminals count grew 979 versus last quarter to 6,754, which represents the largest quarterly growth in absence of reactivations.

Despite 4% average revenue per terminal decline, CCZ notes March 2021 monthly revenue was the highest on record and expects trading activity to continue trending up in the absence of further disruptions.

Adjustment of headline revenue resulted in the broker’s forecast FY21 earnings being refreshed to $8.4m versus $8.1m last published.

A Buy rating is maintained with a target price increasing to NZ$1.00 from NZ$0.88.

This report was published on April 19, 2021.

Current Price is $0.82. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

CCZ Equities forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 872.34.

Forecast for FY22:

CCZ Equities forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.35.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO    SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $7.04

Goldman Sachs rates ((STO)) as Neutral (3) –

Santos Limited announced first quarter production of 24.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, higher than previously forecast by Goldman Sachs due to strong gas production at Bayu-Undan. 

Revenue for the quarter totaled US$964m due to lower-than-expected realised pricing. 

Equity sell-downs of 25% in Bayu-Undan and Darwin LNG are expected by the end of April, while progress continues in the sale and purchase agreement of a 12.5% interest in Barossa to JERA. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $8.35 from $8.15. 

This report was published on April 22, 2021.

Target price is $8.35 Current Price is $7.04 Difference: $1.31
If STO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.87, suggesting upside of 11.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 61.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 79.16 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.7, implying annual growth of 7.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TIE    TIETTO MINERALS LTD

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.28

Euroz Hartleys rates ((TIE)) as Buy (1) –

In Euroz Hartleys’ view, Tietto Minerals has not disappointed with its pre-feasibility study (PFS) release, highlighting the flagship Abujar Gold Project in Côte d’Ivoire as a highly feasible, financially attractive project development.

Tietto Minerals’ PFS open pit mine plan for the Abujar Gold Project underpins 168kozpa first full 6 years.

Assuming further favourable study outcomes, successful financing and construction, Tietto Minerals is targeting first gold production in the first quarter of calendar year 2022.

Using US$1,506/oz gold price, Tietto Minerals estimates net present value of US$266m, and internal rate of return (IRR) 42%, and a pay-back of 2.8 years.

Euroz Hartleys maintains a Speculative Buy and the target price increases to $0.75 from $0.70.

This report was published on April 8, 2021.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.47
If TIE meets the Euroz Hartleys target it will return approximately 168% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Euroz Hartleys forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.00.

Forecast for FY22:

Euroz Hartleys forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 1.33.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WPL    WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $23.15

Goldman Sachs rates ((WPL)) as Buy (1) –

Woodside Petroleum's first quarter production was largely in line with expectations, totaling 23.7 million barrels of oil equivalent, but revenue was lower-than-expected due to sales volume timing and realised price impacts according to Goldman Sachs.

Capital expenditure for the Sangomar Field Development has been updated to US$4.6bn from US$4.4bn following a review during the quarter, reflecting expected execution costs in the current climate. 

The company is yet to reach financial close for the acquisition of FAR Limited's stake in Sangomar, which would increase Woodside's share to 82% from 68%. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $33.85 from $34.10. 

This report was published on April 22, 2021.

Target price is $33.85 Current Price is $23.15 Difference: $10.7
If WPL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.55, suggesting upside of 18.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 238.84 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 177.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 112.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 277.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 152.9, implying annual growth of -14.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 106.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WSA    WESTERN AREAS NL

Nickel – Overnight Price: $2.36

Bell Potter rates ((WSA)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

After a poor start to FY21 with guidance being downgraded twice to the current levels, Western Areas has delivered an improved production and cost performance for the March 2021 quarter.

Driven by higher mined grades at both Flying Fox and Spotted Quoll which also saw improved recoveries at the concentrator, production was up 20% quarter-on-quarter (qoq) to 4.3kt nickel in concentrate, and cash costs dropped -13% to $4.07/lb in-line with Bell Potter forecasts.

Production for FY21 year to date is now sitting at 70% of the full year guidance midpoint.

During the quarter Western Areas raised $85m via an institutional placement at $2.15/sh leaving the company with cash of $153m at quarter end.

Together with an undrawn $75m debt facility and operational cash flows, Bell Potter expects this liquidity to see the Odysseus project (estimated remaining capex ~$220m) fully funded to production.

While Bell Potter’s FY21 earnings are lowered slightly on higher costs, the broker’s FY22 and FY23 earnings are unchanged.

Bell Potter downgrades its rating to Hold from Buy with the target price increasing to $2.46 from $2.45.

This report was published on April 21, 2021.

Target price is $2.46 Current Price is $2.36 Difference: $0.1
If WSA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.58, suggesting upside of 7.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 65.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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