Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – May 05, 2021

This story features ARENA REIT, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ARF

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ARF   AZJ   BGA   BHP   CGF   DSE   ELO   FPH   HDN   HUB   OSL   PBH   RIO   SCP   WSA  

ARF    ARENA REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.43

Jarden rates ((ARF)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (2) –

Jarden likes passive yield REIT’s for attractive valuations, total shareholder returns and support from demand for real Australian assets. Also, there’s considered capacity to fund investment and growth. 

Some REIT’s are trading at a discount to valuation which may drive potential M&A activity, explains the broker. Jarden prefers exposure to non-discretionary Retail for the ability to boost growth with developments and acquisitions. 

The broker also likes the childcare/social infrastructure thematic and the Arena REIT for its development-based approach. It's considered funds from operations (FFO) and DPU should benefit from deployment of IPO proceeds from last year.

The analyst initiates coverage with an Overweight rating and $3.45 target and believes an attractive dividend yield and 5-7% annual FFO growth should continue to support the share price.

This report was published on April 14, 2021.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $3.43 Difference: $0.02
If ARF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.14, suggesting downside of -8.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.60 cents and EPS of 14.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.7, implying annual growth of -36.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.60 cents and EPS of 15.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of 8.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AZJ    AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $3.77

Jarden rates ((AZJ)) as Buy (2) –

Due to challenges in the thermal coal segment of the business, Aurizon Holdings third quarter 2021 coal tonnage of 48.5mt, was -6% lower than the prior year, while bulk performance remained strong, with total volumes increasing 5% to 12.1mt.

Jarden forecasts fourth quarter 2021 (4Q21) total volumes for the Bulk business of 12.7mt, a decline of -2.7% as the BHP Nickel West haulage rolls off (3Q21). In order to reach Jarden’s forecasts for the NSW & SEQ business (coal), the broker believes 4Q21 volumes would need to stabilise at 17mt, the same amount reported in the record 4Q20 period.

Jarden expects FY21 underlying earnings (EBIT) of $887m, slightly below Alpha Consensus Data at $892m. The broker forecasts the Above Rail Coal business to contribute $363m of earnings (EBIT) in FY21, a decline of around -11.5% on the prior year.

However, Jarden takes some solace from the company's reiteration of the Coal volume guidance (200mt – 210mt), with the broker and consensus looking towards the lower-end of this range (204mt).

Overweight rating and target price of $4.30 are both retained.

This report was first issued April 21, 2021.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.77 Difference: $0.53
If AZJ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.74, suggesting upside of 25.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 27.50 cents and EPS of 27.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.4, implying annual growth of -13.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 27.60 cents and EPS of 27.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.3, implying annual growth of 6.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BGA    BEGA CHEESE LIMITED

Dairy – Overnight Price: $6.30

Bell Potter rates ((BGA)) as Buy (1) –

Following the announcement at first half 2021 that Reckitt Benckiser (RB) will cease operations at the Derrimut IMF canning facility, RB has now advised Bega Cheese the company will also cease the services agreement at MSD2 at TMI.

The termination of these agreements, which ran until December 26, results in combined payments to Bega Cheese of $55.5m over FY21-22. Bega originally sold these facilities to then Mead Johnson for $200m and entered a services agreement to manage the facilities in 2017.

While the magnitude of the services agreement has never been disclosed, Bell Potter had previously estimated $7-8m in earnings (EBITDA) across both facilities to Bega. In light of the larger settlement payment, the broker has raised this estimate to around $10m earnings (EBITDA) (i.e. $55.5m spread over the remaining 5.5 years).

At the first half 2021 result, Bell Potter had removed all earnings from the RB service agreement across both facilities. However, the broker has lifted the void by an additional $2m earnings (EBITDA) to reflect the higher settlement payment.

For the most part this is mitigated by expected net interest savings resulting in a sub-1% downgrade to Bell Potter’s FY22-23 earnings per share (EPS) forecasts.

Buy rating unchanged, with the target price increasing to $7.35 from $7.00.

This report was published on April 21, 2021.

Target price is $7.35 Current Price is $6.30 Difference: $1.05
If BGA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.78, suggesting upside of 7.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 13.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of 67.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.4.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 30.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.8, implying annual growth of 81.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP    BHP GROUP

Bulks – Overnight Price: $48.23

Goldman Sachs rates ((BHP)) as Buy (1) –

Following BHP Group’s better than expected reported oil, met coal, copper and iron ore production for the March Quarter 2021, Goldman Sachs has made some adjustments to production guidance.

March quarter highlights included: Pilbara production (iron ore) decreased -5% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to 67Mt; Copper -9% QoQ to 391kt; and Petroleum up 7% QoQ to 25.4Mmboe.

The broker is forecasting -3% production decline (in copper equivalent terms) in FY21, due in part to coal (met and thermal) downgrades on wet weather and weak demand, and other copper (Spence ramp-up) trimmed slightly.

But Goldman Sachs is forecasting 3-6% growth in FY22/23 with the ramp-up of Spence hypogene copper in Chile, together with production from several new conventional oil projects.

Goldman Sachs has increased FY22-FY23 earnings per share (EPS) by 2%/3% on higher copper production and lower costs at Escondida versus the broker’s prior forecasts.

This results in Goldman Sachs’ net asset value (NAV) increasing 1% to $49.4/sh.

Buy rating retained, and target price increases to $54.2 from $53.50.

This report was published on April 21, 2021.

Target price is $54.20 Current Price is $48.23 Difference: $5.97
If BHP meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $47.71, suggesting downside of -1.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 330.74 cents and EPS of 437.34 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 419.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 325.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 338.94 cents and EPS of 483.81 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 422.0, implying annual growth of 0.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 322.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGF    CHALLENGER LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $4.82

Goldman Sachs rates ((CGF)) as Neutral (3) –

Challenger has released its March quarter results, but despite strong sales trends Goldman Sachs expects the company to close out the financial year at the bottom end of its guidance range of $390m-$440m due to recent contraction in credit spreads. 

Total Life sales were up 155% on the previous corresponding period to a total of $2,416m, driven by total Annuity sales of $1,572m, similarly up 165% on the previous corresponding period, notes the broker.

Third quarter funds under management totaled $99.7bn, moderately ahead of the broker's forecast. 

The Neutral rating has been retained and the target price decreases to $5.67 from $5.85. 

This report was published on April 20, 2021.

Target price is $5.67 Current Price is $4.82 Difference: $0.85
If CGF meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.17, suggesting upside of 28.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.5, implying annual growth of 9.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DSE    DROPSUITE LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $0.20

Shaw and Partners rates ((DSE)) as Buy (1) –

Following significant first quarter 2021 growth across annual recurring revenue (ARR), average return per user (ARPU) and Users metrics, Shaw and Partners has upgraded Dropsuite’s revenue forecasts by 6.7%, 5.8% and 5.8% and underlying earnings forecasts (EBITDA) by 4.0%, 10.1% and 7.5% across FY21 – FY23 respectively.

Commenting on the result, Shaw notes, on a constant currency basis, Dropsuite has managed to maintain a massive 77% year-on-year (YoY) growth in ARR alongside expanding ARPU and gross margins.

Shaw forecasts $20m-plus of ARR by the end of FY22 which on the current EV/ARR multiple would imply a share price greater than 2x higher than current levels.

With Dropsuite still trading at -70% discount to peers, Shaw believes a re-rating is justified as the business continues to deliver results above market expectation.

Buy rating is maintained, target price increases to $0.30 from $0.28.

This report was issue on April 21, 2021

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.1
If DSE meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 200.00.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 100.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ELO    ELMO SOFTWARE LIMITED

Jobs & Skilled Labour Services – Overnight Price: $5.70

Shaw and Partners rates ((ELO)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners is initiating coverage on Elmo Software, a leading vendor of integrated cloud HR, payroll and rostering/time & attendance software operating in Australia, NZ and the UK, with a Buy rating and price target of $9.00 which implies 55%-plus upside on a 12month view.

Based on Shaw’s forecasts, Elmo can move from an FY20 Adjusted earnings (EBITDA) loss of -$29.0m to a $1.5m profit by FY24, implying cash break-even can be achieved in 3 years (end FY24).

Given -35-60% underperformance versus peers, the broker believes Elmo is set-up to re-rate, as its shift to operating leverage is demonstrated.

In FY21, Shaw forecasts headline revenue growth of 36% year-on-year (YoY), comprising organic growth of 16% and contributions from Breathe and Webexpenses of $4.5m and $4.7m respectively.

This report was issue on April 21, 2021.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $5.70 Difference: $3.3
If ELO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 34.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 16.57.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 32.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 17.48.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FPH    FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $32.83

Wilsons rates ((FPH)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons believes the covid pandemic may turn out to be the making of high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) in ex-ICU settings. The broker estimates a 35% increase in the global installed base of Fisher & Paykel’s HFNC devices (AIRVO2/OptiFlow) over the last 12 months.

Wilsons is forecasting FY21 NZ$528m profit (NPAT) up 84% versus the previous period.

The broker also expects a gradual reduction in Hospital hardware demand over the fourth quarter; elevated New Applications consumables pull-through; and sustained growth in Homecare with covid-related softness in sleep volumes offset by resupply activity and MyAIRVO adoption.

If Fisher & Paykel guides FY22 at all, Wilsons expects it be conservative compared to consensus expectations (NZ$1.7bn revenue; NZ$414m net profit).

Wilsons maintains its Overweight rating and target price of $37.50.

The report was published on April 22, 2021.

Target price is $37.50 Current Price is $32.83 Difference: $4.67
If FPH meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.50, suggesting upside of 2.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 37.25 cents and EPS of 85.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.0.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 37.25 cents and EPS of 68.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.2, implying annual growth of -28.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.9.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HDN    HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.29

Jarden rates ((HDN)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden believes the proposed portfolio acquisition and equity raising from Home Consortium reflects HomeCo Daily’s willingness to grow and address handbrakes if and where they exist.

HomeCo Daily announced the proposed acquisition of seven large format retail ("LFR Portfolio") centres from Home Consortium for $266.4m on a 6.75% WAV cap rate; and the acquisition of Armstrong Creek Town Centre for $55.6m on a 6.0% cap rate, funded via existing debt and a $265m equity raising.

The equity raising comprises a $265m non-renounceable 1-for-2.36 Entitlement Offer at $1.295/unit, and a conditional 1 bonus unit for every 20 new units issued fully funded by HMC.

Home Consortium committed to take up its full entitlement of 26.6% for its co-investment. The acquisitions are subject to a HomeCo Daily unitholder vote by ordinary resolution in June 2021.

Jarden notes, Post transaction HomeCo Daily trades on an FY22 dividend per share (DPS yield) of 6.1% versus 4.0% sector average and a -1.1% discount to NTA versus an 87.4% sector average premium.

With the requirement to hold stock from the Entitlement Offer in order to receive the 1-for-20 bonus unit, and potential S&P/ASX300 index inclusion thereafter, the broker believes this transaction will put a floor under the share price.

The broker retains a Buy rating and target price of $1.55.

This report was issued on April 21, 2021.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.29 Difference: $0.26
If HDN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.43, suggesting upside of 11.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.20 cents and EPS of 3.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.3.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 7.90 cents and EPS of 8.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.3, implying annual growth of 107.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HUB    HUB24 LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $24.77

Shaw and Partners rates ((HUB)) as Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners believes the stars have aligned for Hub24 to produce a monumental fourth quarter (4Q21) result after third quarter 2021 net flows (record of $1.9bn) represented another record result for the platform operator since inception, and were up 40.9% year-on-year (YoY).

This does not include the large transition of $1.3bn from ClearView due to land in 4Q21 and should see the broker’s valuation incrementally de-levered over time.

In Shaw’s view, the group will be completely reshaped going into FY21, with the engine room consisting of a massive platforms business ($35.6bn in funds under admin and 4.3% market share), a solid non-custodial business with additions from PARS and Xplore – plus a significant white label agreement with industry behemoth IOOF Holdings ((IFL)).

Shaw has upgraded Hub24’s profit forecasts (NPAT) by 1.4%, 1.6% and 2.0% across FY21 – FY2 respectively.

The Buy rating is unchanged with the target price rising to $27 from $26.13.

This report was published on April 21, 2021.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $24.77 Difference: $2.23
If HUB meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.06, suggesting upside of 5.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.70 cents and EPS of 25.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 97.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.0, implying annual growth of 113.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 88.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.60 cents and EPS of 41.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 59.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.9, implying annual growth of 60.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 55.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OSL    ONCOSIL MEDICAL LTD

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.10

Wilsons rates ((OSL)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons believes the potential fourth quarter 2021 HDE approval in US for bile duct cancer, holds more immediate revenue potential in the US than Europe because it offers straightforward reimbursement access, a lower evidence hurdle to revenue generation and the prospect of investigator-led, off-label experimentation.

Wilsons current unrisked valuation of OncoSil Medical is $0.72 per share. Overweight rating and target of $0.25 are both retained.

This report was published on April 22, 2021.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.15
If OSL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 150% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.14.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.69.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PBH    POINTSBET HOLDINGS LTD

Gaming – Overnight Price: $14.05

Goldman Sachs rates ((PBH)) as Buy (1) –

After initiating coverage of PointsBet Holdings in late March, Goldman Sachs reiterates a Buy rating and target price of $17.50.

Commenting on feedback sine initiating coverage, the broker notes investors generally agree the opening up of mobile Sportsbetting and iGaming in the US will be one of significant multi-year high growth drivers given the huge addressable market underpinned by population size and appetite and following of Sports.

Goldman Sachs believes there’s scope for PointsBet to drive a niche share of the burgeoning US market over the medium to long term and see no reason why the company cannot achieve 10% share of states it operates in.

This report was published on April 21, 2021.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $14.05 Difference: $3.45
If PBH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 76.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 18.49.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 57.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 24.65.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO    RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks – Overnight Price: $123.13

Shaw and Partners rates ((RIO)) as Hold (3) –

While most commodity contributions landed a tad lighter (copper mined, bauxite, alumina, aluminium, iron ore production) than expectation, Rio Tinto’s March quarter iron ore sales were around 4% ahead.

Post the March quarter, Shaw and Partners have made no major changes to production/sales settings given calendar year 2021 guidance is maintained.

However, the broker has updated 2021 earnings for actual commodity prices and FX, with key upsides for the quarter coming across aluminium, copper and also iron ore.

Hold rating and price target of $120 maintained.

This report was published on April 21, 2021.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $123.13 Difference: minus $3.13 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $125.71, suggesting upside of 2.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 1163.73 cents and EPS of 1496.24 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1598.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1135.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 593.55 cents and EPS of 918.41 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1150.0, implying annual growth of -28.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 814.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SCP    SHOPPING CENTRES AUSTRALASIA PROPERTY GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.49

Jarden rates ((SCP)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (2) –

Jarden likes passive yield REIT’s for attractive valuations, total shareholder returns and support from demand for real Australian assets. Also, there’s considered capacity to fund investment and growth. 

Some REIT’s are trading at a discount to valuation which may drive potential M&A activity, explains the broker. Jarden prefers exposure to non-discretionary Retail for the ability to boost growth with developments and acquisitions. 

The broker believes Shopping Centres Australia Property Group is well positioned to deliver above average funds from operations (FFO)/DPU growth from steady income via a largely non-discretionary portfolio.

Additionally, the gradual wind-down of the covid impact and a positive contribution from recent and future add-on acquisitions are key positives. The broker initiates with an Overweight rating and a $2.80 target price.

This report was published on April 14, 2021.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.49 Difference: $0.31
If SCP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.43, suggesting downside of -2.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.40 cents and EPS of 14.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of 61.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 14.50 cents and EPS of 16.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of 8.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WSA    WESTERN AREAS NL

Nickel – Overnight Price: $2.38

Shaw and Partners rates ((WSA)) as Buy (1) –

In line with pre-guidance on 8 April, Western Areas' March quarter production & sales scorecard confirms operations are back on track.

Commenting on the update, Shaw and Partners notes Western Areas mined more nickel units, containing higher grade ore which delivered higher yield when processed.

According to the broker, key highlights of the quarter included: Total nickel mined 4,236 tonnes, up 20% quarter on quarter (QoQ); Mined ore grade of 3.6%, up 27% QoQ, and nickel produced in concentrate of 4,267 tonnes, up 21% QoQ due to higher mined grades and mill recoveries.

There was no change to FY21 guidance.

Based on the continued confluence of key factors, including a favourable nickel price tailwind, and the balance sheet now sorted post the recent equity raise, the broker sees Western Areas’ fortunes improving into FY22.

Buy rating and target price of $2.90 are both retained.

This report was published on April 21, 2021.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: $0.52
If WSA meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.58, suggesting upside of 8.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 1190.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 8.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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