Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 03-07-20

This story features 3P LEARNING LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 3PL

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday June 29 to Friday July 3, 2020
Total Upgrades: 10
Total Downgrades: 21
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 49.53%; Hold 40.14%; Sell 10.32%

To gauge the mood among stockbroking analysts, look no further than last week’s upgrades and downgrades for individual ASX-listed stocks.

For the week ending Friday, 3th July 2020, FNArena registered ten upgrades in ratings and 21 downgrades, of which twelve moved to a fresh Sell.

Among those receiving fresh Sell ratings are gold miners, small cap mining stocks, plus Suncorp, BlueScope Steel, and financial platform operator Netwealth.

All but two of the week’s upgrades moved to Buy.

Analysts have been rather busy updating forecasts and valuations/price targets, which has led to a busy-looking set of tables for the week’s largest increases and decreases.

Enjoying the biggest increases to price targets for the week are Eclipx Group, Sigma Healthcare, and NextDC.

On the negative side, health food company in serious trouble Freedom Foods Group leads the table for reductions to price targets, with yet more restructuring Suncorp a distant second.

19 of the 20 stocks ranked for changes to earnings estimates (10 up, 10 down) saw changes in double-digit percentage, with Brickworks the sole exception with a -7.73% cut to forecasts.

 Equally telling, only two of the seven stockbrokerages monitored daily is still carrying more Buy ratings than Neutral/Hold; Citi and Morgans.

Total Buy ratings for those seven brokers remains stubbornly high at 49.53% of total ratings, versus 40.14% on Neutral/Hold, and 10.31% in Sell ratings.

Upgrade

3P LEARNING LIMITED ((3PL)) Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 1/0/0

3P Learning has secured a contract worth US$10m with a Middle Eastern National Ministry of Education to provide Mathletics licenses and services for twelve months.

Morgan Stanley points out this will be a material addition to the company’s revenue and highlights the possibility of extending the tenure of the contract.

The broker reduces its estimates for FY20 on account of higher costs and lower sales growth. While earnings for FY21 are lifted as a result of this contract, FY22 estimates are mostly left intact.

Morgan Stanley upgrades its rating to Overweight from Equal-weight with the target price increased to $1.10 from $0.86. Industry view: In-line.

EBOS GROUP LIMITED ((EBO)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 3/1/0

Citi believes Australian Pharmaceutical Industries is most likely to benefit from the new Community Pharmacy Agreement (CPA).

The new agreement will be in place for five years and is effective from July 1.

Citi considers EBOS, with the largest exposure to the hospital market, is likely to be most negatively affected relative to peers by the new floor-ceiling price.

Rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral as the valuation is rolled forward. Target is raised to $24.50 from $23.50.

INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED ((IAG)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 4/3/0

General insurer share prices have underperformed, UBS observes, with average 2020 price declines of -30% in the year to date.

The broker attributes this to de-risked investment exposures, lower running yields and an overhang of claims risk.

Rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral and the target is reduced to $6.45 from $6.55.

JUMBO INTERACTIVE LIMITED ((JIN)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/0/0

The extension of Jumbo Interactive's reseller deal with Tabcorp ((TAH)) through to 2030 is a case of short term pain for long term gain, Morgans suggests.

It will cost Jumbo -$15m up front and a service fee that ramps up to 4.6% in 2024. It's costly, the broker admits, but should provide the market with comfort over the relationship.

Strong ticket sales have otherwise led Jumbo to reiterate FY20 guidance. Morgans upgrades to Add from Hold. Target rises to $11.58 from $9.62.

MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED ((MFG)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 1/5/1

Credit Suisse upgrades FY20 estimates due to higher performance fees and investment income from distributions. Retail flows are tracking better than the broker expected.

While valuation appeal is limited, Credit Suisse cannot find a negative catalyst on the horizon and upgrades to Neutral from Underperform.  Target is raised to $55 from $47.

There is potential upside from an announcement on a partnership with Blackwattle, which could be a step into managing unlisted assets and add 10-15% to earnings over the next five years.

SIGMA HEALTHCARE LIMITED ((SIG)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 1/2/0

Citi believes Australian Pharmaceutical Industries is most likely to benefit from the new Community Pharmacy Agreement (CPA).

The new agreement will be in place for five years and is effective from July 1.

Citi upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Target is raised to $0.75 from $0.70.

Sigma has some exposure to the hospital market but the impact of the distribution fee ceiling on the group should be negligible.

TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((TAH)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 2/4/0

Tabcorp has renegotiated its reseller agreement with Jumbo Interactive ((JIN)), effectively halving the long-term net commission rate.

Citi assesses this is less risky than exiting the agreement altogether and reflects Tabcorp's market power.

Rating is upgraded to Neutral from Sell and the target raised to $3.40 from $2.80.

TRANSURBAN GROUP ((TCL)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/3/2

Ord Minnett expects earnings should stabilise at around 20% ahead of pre-pandemic levels in FY23, and then grow at a relatively strong 7-9% per annum.

The broker incorporates new assumptions for the three airport-exposed assets, Citylink, Airport Link and Eastern Distributor.

Rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold and the target lifted to $16.00 from $15.25.

WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED ((WHC)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 5/1/1

Citi is of the view that thermal coal prices are now so low for so long that a producer response will follow. Productions cuts are on the cards, predict the analysts.

Citi analysts are anticipating a repeat of 2015 when aggressive reductions followed, with the price for thermal coal subsequently rising.

Target price for Whitehaven Coal has been pared back to $1.75 from $1.80 but the anticipated scenario for the sector overall has now triggered an upgrade to Buy from Neutral.

WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED ((WPL)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 5/2/0

Macquarie lowers oil price assumptions for the next 18 months and notes Woodside Petroleum shares are underperforming sector peers.

The broker suggests there is increased upside risk for the stock as Woodside may be able to capture value by acquiring the Chevron stake in North West Shelf.

The broker upgrades to Outperform from Neutral on valuation. Target is raised to $25.00 from $23.50.

Downgrade

AUSTRALIAN PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES ((API)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 0/2/1

Citi believes Australian Pharmaceutical Industries is most likely to benefit from the new Community Pharmacy Agreement (CPA).

The new agreement will be in place for five years and is effective from July 1.

The industry will receive additional funding of at least $92m, and most of it should flow through to earnings (EBIT).

The impact of the new floor ceiling is likely to be of benefit to the company relative to peers.

At this stage the broker includes no benefits in estimates because of the number of variables involved.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy on valuation. Target is raised to $1.25 from $1.15.

ALACER GOLD CORP ((AQG)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/2/0

Macquarie assesses a strengthening Australian dollar has taken the gloss off the gold sector, putting a brake on earnings growth.

This is exacerbated by expectations for a disrupted June quarter and production growth in FY21 is likely to be limited.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is raised to $9.40 from $9.00.

BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED ((BSL)) Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 3/2/1

BlueScope Steel is considered to be a high-quality business with a strong balance sheet and good cash generation. However, the broker suggests the company should follow an agile approach with challenging conditions in the US.

The US steel industry utilisation, functioning at around 55%, is under pressure while steel spreads have declined to their lowest levels since 2011. Even though North Star is expected to perform better than peers, the broker expects a negative impact on volume.

The broker has reduced FY20-21 earnings estimates for North Star along with lower earnings forecasted in Australian steel products. This implies lower operating income for FY20 and FY21.

Morgan Stanley reduces its rating to Underweight from Equal-weight with the target price reducing to $10 from $13.50. Industry view: Cautious.

CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED ((CMM)) Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/0/1

Macquarie assesses a strengthening Australian dollar has taken the gloss off the gold sector, putting a brake on earnings growth.

This is exacerbated by expectations for a disrupted June quarter and production growth in FY21 is likely to be limited.

Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Outperform. Target is steady at $1.50.

DACIAN GOLD LIMITED ((DCN)) Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/0/1

Macquarie assesses a strengthening Australian dollar has taken the gloss off the gold sector, putting a brake on earnings growth.

This is exacerbated by expectations for a disrupted June quarter and production growth in FY21 is likely to be limited.

Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Outperform. Target is reduced to $0.43 from $0.45.

GALAXY RESOURCES LIMITED ((GXY)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 0/4/2

Credit Suisse updates operating estimates for Mount Cattlin and factors in a weak environment for lithium demand.

The broker forecasts a 2020 spodumene price of US$415/t. Liquidity should remain robust and a restructured Mount Cattlin should reduce any strain on cash.

The broker downgrades to Neutral from Outperform and reduces the target to $0.84 from $1.50.

HUB24 LIMITED ((HUB)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 3/1/1

HUB24 has outperformed the market by 15-20% over the last three months, Credit Suisse observes.

The benefits from the rebound in equity markets are expected to be diluted by the tiered pricing structure and the likely deployment of high investor cash balances.

The broker continues to expect significant inflow and market share gains but assesses the company still needs to reduce platform fees.

A greater proportion of earnings are leveraged to cash which Credit Suisse expects will be deployed in the next 12 months.

Rating is, therefore, downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target is raised to $12.00 from $10.20.

NEWCREST MINING LIMITED ((NCM)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/3/1

Macquarie assesses a strengthening Australian dollar has taken the gloss off the gold sector, putting a brake on earnings growth.

This is exacerbated by expectations for a disrupted June quarter and production growth in FY21 is likely to be limited.

Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral. Target is steady at $28.

NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED ((NWL)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 1/3/2

Credit Suisse observes Netwealth has outperformed the market by 15-20% over the last three months.

Looking into FY21 the broker envisages a flatter earnings profile and a declining revenue margin.

Consensus earnings estimates are assessed to be too high, with little valuation protection, and this increases the risk of disappointment.

Hence, the broker downgrades to Underperform from Neutral. Target is raised to $8.30 from $7.50.

PANORAMIC RESOURCES LIMITED ((PAN)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/0/1

Macquarie reduces medium-term nickel price forecasts. The broker prefers Western Areas ((WSA)) and Nickel Mines ((NIC)) among nickel producers.

Panoramic Resources is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral. Target is reduced to 8c from 9c.

PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED ((PLS)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 1/0/3

Citi expects the spodumene market will remain the weakest link in the lithium supply chain because of significant capacity additions in hard rock supply.

Moreover, there is a dependence on volume offtake by third-party converters and a relatively high cost structure.

Rating is downgraded to Sell/High Risk from Neutral/High Risk as the valuation appears stretched. Target is reduced to $0.22 from $0.24.

REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RRL)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/2/2

Macquarie assesses a strengthening Australian dollar has taken the gloss off the gold sector, putting a brake on earnings growth.

This is exacerbated by expectations for a disrupted June quarter and production growth in FY21 is likely to be limited.

Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral. Target is reduced to $4.50 from $4.60.

RESOLUTE MINING LIMITED ((RSG)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/0/1

Macquarie assesses a strengthening Australian dollar has taken the gloss off the gold sector, putting a brake on earnings growth.

This is exacerbated by expectations for a disrupted June quarter and production growth in FY21 is likely to be limited.

Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral. Target is steady at $1.

SARACEN MINERAL HOLDINGS LIMITED ((SAR)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie and Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Macquarie assesses a strengthening Australian dollar has taken the gloss off the gold sector, putting a brake on earnings growth.

This is exacerbated by expectations for a disrupted June quarter and production growth in FY21 is likely to be limited.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is raised to $5.40 from $5.00.

Ord Minnett downgrades to Hold from Accumulate, assessing the stock has run out of returns.

The broker remains positive on gold, based on inflation expectations and falling real yields. Target is raised to $5.40 from $4.90.

ST BARBARA LIMITED ((SBM)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/1/1

Macquarie assesses a strengthening Australian dollar has taken the gloss off the gold sector, putting a brake on earnings growth.

This is exacerbated by expectations for a disrupted June quarter and production growth in FY21 is likely to be limited.

Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral. Target is steady at $2.60.

THE STAR ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED ((SGR)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 3/3/1

Credit Suisse lowers FY21 estimates for earnings per share by -43% after the company guided to its casino operating capacity.

The broker previously assumed a near full recovery in FY21 but now expects FY21 revenue will be around 70% of FY19, given the ongoing coronavirus restrictions.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is reduced to $3.40 from $3.75.

SANTOS LIMITED ((STO)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 5/2/0

The Santos share price is up 10% since May. This leads Macquarie to downgrade to Neutral from Outperform.

The broker also expects a slower recovery in the oil price over 2021. Target is reduced to $5.50 from $6.05.

SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED ((SUN)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans and Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/3/2

Suncorp has announced a restructure to improve its business performance.

The company has been forced to balance pricing and cover levels during negotiations for reinsurance in FY21.

Morgans notes there is not as much P&L protection now and Suncorp will also have to hold higher general insurance capital given greater risk exposure.

The broker downgrades to Hold from Add, envisaging better value elsewhere in the sector. Target is reduced to $9.40 from $10.44.

Credit Suisse observes Suncorp has resisted, again, resetting financial targets so investors will be faced with gradual earnings downgrades.

The broker expects the company will deliver a 6-7% return on equity in the outer years, well below the prior target of at least 10%.

Suncorp has announced an organisational restructure but this lacks detail, and Credit Suisse assumes it is just the start of larger changes.

Cash earnings estimates for FY21 are decreased by -6%.

Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral as the stock has outperformed peers recently. Target is reduced to $8.75 from $9.65.

WEST AFRICAN RESOURCES LIMITED ((WAF)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/0/1

Macquarie assesses a strengthening Australian dollar has taken the gloss off the gold sector, putting a brake on earnings growth.

This is exacerbated by expectations for a disrupted June quarter and production growth in FY21 is likely to be limited.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Underperform. Target is steady at $0.90.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

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