The Short Report – 26 Mar 2020

This story features SYRAH RESOURCES LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SYR

See Guide further below (for readers with full access).

Summary:

Week ending March 19, 2020

Last week saw more of the same for the ASX200, including the biggest one-day fall since 1987.

In the prior couple of weeks of correction, changes in short positions on the ASX had been fairly negligible under the circumstances, with a few exceptions. That all changed last week as we officially hit a technical bear market and kept going.

At least, according to the ASIC data. Were this any normal week, I’d be dismissing the range and extent of such moves in one week as data error, as has happened so often before. But we live in extraordinary times. So we’ll take it as written, unless next week’s data dispute.

All short position changes are noted in percentage points:

Falling over -4ppt was Syrah Resources ((SYR)), with battery-related peers Galaxy Resources ((GXY)) falling over -2ppt and Orocobre ((ORE)) over -1ppt. Short positions in this group are highly volatile at the best of times.

Metcash ((MTS)) fell over -2ppt, with supermarket shelves being ransacked. JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)) fell -2ppt on a rush for home entertainment. Super Retail ((SUL)) shorts fell over -2% as brokers called the stock oversold. Blackmores ((BKL)) fell over -1ppt, perhaps as conditions ease in China.

The travel industry is clearly the epicentre of disaster. Last week Webjet ((WEB)) went into trading halt pending a (failed) capital raising. Shorts had fallen over -1ppt. Flight Centre ((FLT)) has this week gone into a trading halt for the same reason. Last week shorts rose over 2ppt. Corporate Travel Management ((CTD)) shorts fell over -3ppt as brokers pointed to a strong balance sheet.

This week oOh!media ((OML)) went into a trading halt pending a capital raising. Last week shorts rose over 2ppt.

Nearmap ((NEA)) was having problems even before the corona-crash and had fallen -68% from January. Last week shorts fell over -2ppt, presumably on profit-taking.

It should be noted, of course, all of the above stocks have been trashed by varying extents.

A small mention goes to BHP Group ((BHP)), which has joined the table on 5.2% shorted, up from 4.7% the week before. That’s a big short for a big company.

Weekly short positions as a percentage of market cap:

10%+
GXY   18.4
SYR    15.4
ORE    13.2
SDA    13.2
ING     11.7
MTS    10.6
NCZ    10.1

Out: GWA, NEA

9.0-9.9

GWA, PLS, CUV

In: GWA, CUV          Out: JBH, CGC, PPT            
                                               
8.0-8.9%

OML, CGC, PPT, BOQ

In: CGC, PPT, OML              Out: CUV, WEB, CTD, SUL, BGA, MYR, BKL, NXT

7.0-7.9%

MYR, PGH, NEA, IVC, HVN, BEN, BGA, GEM, MYX, FLT, JBH, WEB, NXT

In: NEA, JBH, MYR, BGA, WEB, NXT, FLT, GEM          Out: DMP

6.0-6.9%

BKL, SGM, SUL, KGN, RSG, NUF, AMP, OML

In: BKL, SUL             Out: OML, GEM, SEK, COE, A2M

5.0-5.9%

SEK, IFL, HUB, CLH, A2M, COE, Z1P, CLQ, CGF, AWC, BHP, BGL, CTD, DCN, PNI

In: CTD, SEK, A2M, COE, Z1P, BHP, PNI             Out: FLT, BUB, MND, BIN

                       
Movers & Shakers

Everything you see above.

ASX20 Short Positions (%)

To see the full Short Report, please go to this link

Guide:

The Short Report draws upon data provided by the Australian Securities & Investment Commission (ASIC) to highlight significant weekly moves in short positions registered on stocks listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). Short positions in exchange-traded funds (ETF) and non-ordinary shares are not included. Short positions below 5% are not included in the table below but may be noted in the accompanying text if deemed significant.

Please take note of the Important Information provided at the end of this report. Percentage amounts in this report refer to percentage of ordinary shares on issue.

Stock codes highlighted in green have seen their short positions reduce in the week by an amount sufficient to move them into a lower percentage bracket. Stocks highlighted in red have seen their short positions increase in the week by an amount sufficient to move them into a higher percentage bracket. Moves in excess of one percentage point or more are discussed in the Movers & Shakers report below.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT THIS REPORT

The above information is sourced from daily reports published by the Australian Investment & Securities Commission (ASIC) and is provided by FNArena unqualified as a service to subscribers. FNArena would like to make it very clear that immediate assumptions cannot be drawn from the numbers alone.

It is wrong to assume that short percentages published by ASIC simply imply negative market positions held by fund managers or others looking to profit from a fall in respective share prices. While all or part of certain short percentages may indeed imply such, there are also a myriad of other reasons why a short position might be held which does not render that position “naked” given offsetting positions held elsewhere. Whatever balance of percentages truly is a “short” position would suggest there are negative views on a stock held by some in the market and also would suggest that were the news flow on that stock to turn suddenly positive, “short covering” may spark a short, sharp rally in that share price. However short positions held as an offset against another position may prove merely benign.

Often large short positions can be attributable to a listed hybrid security on the same stock where traders look to “strip out” the option value of the hybrid with offsetting listed option and stock positions. Short positions may form part of a short stock portfolio offsetting a long share price index (SPI) futures portfolio – a popular trade which seeks to exploit windows of opportunity when the SPI price trades at an overextended discount to fair value. Short positions may be held as a hedge by a broking house providing dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) underwriting services or other similar services. Short positions will occasionally need to be adopted by market makers in listed equity exchange traded fund products (EFT). All of the above are just some of the reasons why a short position may be held in a stock but can be considered benign in share price direction terms due to offsets.

Market makers in stock and stock index options will also hedge their portfolios using short positions where necessary. These delta hedges often form the other side of a client's long stock-long put option protection trade, or perhaps long stock-short call option (“buy-write”) position. In a clear example of how published short percentages can be misleading, an options market maker may hold a short position below the implied delta hedge level and that actually implies a “long” position in that stock.

Another popular trading strategy is that of “pairs trading” in which one stock is held short against a long position in another stock. Such positions look to exploit perceived imbalances in the valuations of two stocks and imply a “net neutral” market position.

Aside from all the above reasons as to why it would be a potential misconception to draw simply conclusions on short percentages, there are even wider issues to consider. ASIC itself will admit that short position data is not an exact science given the onus on market participants to declare to their broker when positions truly are “short”. Without any suggestion of deceit, there are always participants who are ignorant of the regulations. Discrepancies can also arise when short positions are held by a large investment banking operation offering multiple stock market services as well as proprietary trading activities. Such activity can introduce the possibility of either non-counting or double-counting when custodians are involved and beneficial ownership issues become unclear.

Finally, a simple fact is that the Australian Securities Exchange also keeps its own register of short positions. The figures provided by ASIC and by the ASX at any point do not necessarily correlate.

FNArena has offered this qualified explanation of the vagaries of short stock positions as a warning to subscribers not to jump to any conclusions or to make investment decisions based solely on these unqualified numbers. FNArena strongly suggests investors seek advice from their stock broker or financial adviser before acting upon any of the information provided herein.

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