Australia | Feb 10 2020
Flight Centre has acknowledged coronavirus is starting to impact on travel plans, which creates uncertainty over the outlook for the second half.
-Chinese corporate business being negatively impacted by coronavirus
-Australian leisure outbound volumes may also be affected
-Possibility of a strong rebound in travel volumes when virus concerns allayed
By Eva Brocklehurst
Flight Centre's ((FLT)) update may have calmed expectations for the first half but brokers are nervous about the second half, as the company acknowledges the outbreak of coronavirus is starting to have an impact. This adds to a growing list of issues confronting Flight Centre and increases the probability of further downgrades to current guidance for FY20, in Citi's view.
The company now expects pre-tax profit of $100-105m in the first half, with the mid point slightly higher than the prior $90-110m guidance. FY20 guidance is for $310-350m in pre-tax profit. Flight Centre has pointed out that Brexit, US/China trade wars, unrest in Hong Kong and Dominican Republic as well as poor consumer confidence all weighed on the first half results.
While coronavirus is affecting second half travel patterns the company finds it difficult to judge the potential impact. It appears the virus has negatively affected the corporate business in greater China and Singapore, which represents 2.5% of total transaction value for the group.
This could have flow-on effects on outbound leisure and corporate travel in other regions, and Flight Centre has indicated that its leisure business, hotels and resorts are also likely to be affected.
The Chinese corporate business may be only a small percentage, but Macquarie believes other factors are also affecting the downgrade, pointing out travel industry contacts have indicated that January and the second half of December were the worst in memory in the local travel industry.
Ord Minnett observes the market has made a decision to sell first and ask questions later with regard to the coronavirus. However, history suggests the issue will be resolved and normal operating conditions will return within a relatively short timeframe.
Outbound travel from Australia is holding up reasonably well but the broker is alert for any worsening. As Flight Centre has risk exposure across multiple lines, importantly offshore corporate, Ord Minnett takes a cautious approach and downgrades to Hold from Buy.