The Short Report – 12 Dec 2019

This story features GWA GROUP LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GWA

See Guide further below (for readers with full access).

Summary:

Week ending December 5, 2019

Last week the ASX200 pushed up to new highs before a bit of a scare on the trade war front sparked a serious tantrum.

Said tantrum did not illicit much of a response from the shorters, as a lack of much movement on the table below suggests. There were nevertheless a few individual stories to ponder.

The triple-listed Kirkland Lake Gold ((KLA)) has put more daylight below it at the top of the table with a short position increase to 20.8% from 17.9%. My best guess continues to be the arbitrage opportunity presented by listings in all of Canada, the US and Australia, given the Canadian-based miner does not get much attention in the latter.

Kitchen & bathroom specialist GWA Group ((GWA)) managed to ride out last week’s volatility rather calmly, and its shorts fell to 12.2% from 14.9%. My assumption here would be shorters becoming nervous about the sudden turnaround in Sydney and Melbourne house prices.

Bank of Queensland’s ((BOQ)) announced capital raising has shorts down to 6.0% from 7.4%. Another arbitrage opportunity, to cover with new shares at a discount.

Shorts in Collection House ((CLH)) dropped to 5.5% from 8.2%. See below.

Finally we might note that as of last week, Webjet ((WEB)) was 10.9% shorted and yesterday takeover speculation prompted a 9.6% share price pop.

Weekly short positions as a percentage of market cap:

10%+

KLA    20.8
GXY   17.3
SYR    15.8
ORE    14.0
SDA    13.9
ING     12.7
GWA  12.2
JBH     11.8
NXT    11.6
NEA    11.3
BGA   11.2
WEB   10.9
MIN    10.9
CGC    10.8
DMP   10.4
BKL    10.3
MTS    10.2

In: CGC          Out: HUB

9.0-9.9

HUB

In: HUB          Out: CGC, A2M
                                               
8.0-8.9%

IVC, A2M, NCZ, SUL, NUF, PPT

In: A2M, NCZ            , NUF              Out: CLH, HVN

7.0-7.9%

PLS, RSG, HVN, CGF, OML, BIN, MYR, IFL

In: HVN                      Out: NCZ, NUF, BOQ

6.0-6.9%

CUV, BWX, CTD, RWC, DCN, SGM

No changes

5.0-5.9%

BOQ, COE, AMP, SLR, PNI, NEC, MYX, CLQ, GNC, CLH, CMW, RFF, WOR, GMA, MLX, LNG, MSB

In: CLH, BOQ            , MSB              Out: NWL

                       
Movers & Shakers

A few months ago Collection House was in the news, accused of aggressive debt collection practices in its use of bankruptcy actions. The company responded by rising its bankruptcy action threshold to $20,000 from $7,500.

Two weeks ago the CEO suddenly walked, having signed a three-year contract in June. The share price has been in a downward spiral all year, now having fallen -25% since its January high. Two weeks ago the stock was 8.2% shorted. Last week shorts fell to 5.5%.

Looks like someone cashed in.

ASX20 Short Positions (%)

Code	Last Week	Week Before	Code	Last Week	Week Before
AMC	0.9	1.1	RIO	4.2	4.1
ANZ	0.6	0.7	S32	1.4	1.6
BHP	3.2	3.3	SCG	0.4	0.4
BXB	0.2	0.1	SUN	0.3	0.5
CBA	0.7	0.6	TCL	0.4	0.4
CSL	0.1	0.1	TLS	0.2	0.3
GMG	0.3	0.3	WBC	0.6	0.6
IAG	0.6	0.4	WES	0.5	0.6
MQG	0.3	0.3	WOW	0.7	0.8
NAB	1.0	1.0	WPL	0.7	0.8

To see the full Short Report, please go to this link

Guide:

The Short Report draws upon data provided by the Australian Securities & Investment Commission (ASIC) to highlight significant weekly moves in short positions registered on stocks listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). Short positions in exchange-traded funds (ETF) and non-ordinary shares are not included. Short positions below 5% are not included in the table below but may be noted in the accompanying text if deemed significant.

Please take note of the Important Information provided at the end of this report. Percentage amounts in this report refer to percentage of ordinary shares on issue.

Stock codes highlighted in green have seen their short positions reduce in the week by an amount sufficient to move them into a lower percentage bracket. Stocks highlighted in red have seen their short positions increase in the week by an amount sufficient to move them into a higher percentage bracket. Moves in excess of one percentage point or more are discussed in the Movers & Shakers report below.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT THIS REPORT

The above information is sourced from daily reports published by the Australian Investment & Securities Commission (ASIC) and is provided by FNArena unqualified as a service to subscribers. FNArena would like to make it very clear that immediate assumptions cannot be drawn from the numbers alone.

It is wrong to assume that short percentages published by ASIC simply imply negative market positions held by fund managers or others looking to profit from a fall in respective share prices. While all or part of certain short percentages may indeed imply such, there are also a myriad of other reasons why a short position might be held which does not render that position “naked” given offsetting positions held elsewhere. Whatever balance of percentages truly is a “short” position would suggest there are negative views on a stock held by some in the market and also would suggest that were the news flow on that stock to turn suddenly positive, “short covering” may spark a short, sharp rally in that share price. However short positions held as an offset against another position may prove merely benign.

Often large short positions can be attributable to a listed hybrid security on the same stock where traders look to “strip out” the option value of the hybrid with offsetting listed option and stock positions. Short positions may form part of a short stock portfolio offsetting a long share price index (SPI) futures portfolio – a popular trade which seeks to exploit windows of opportunity when the SPI price trades at an overextended discount to fair value. Short positions may be held as a hedge by a broking house providing dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) underwriting services or other similar services. Short positions will occasionally need to be adopted by market makers in listed equity exchange traded fund products (EFT). All of the above are just some of the reasons why a short position may be held in a stock but can be considered benign in share price direction terms due to offsets.

Market makers in stock and stock index options will also hedge their portfolios using short positions where necessary. These delta hedges often form the other side of a client's long stock-long put option protection trade, or perhaps long stock-short call option (“buy-write”) position. In a clear example of how published short percentages can be misleading, an options market maker may hold a short position below the implied delta hedge level and that actually implies a “long” position in that stock.

Another popular trading strategy is that of “pairs trading” in which one stock is held short against a long position in another stock. Such positions look to exploit perceived imbalances in the valuations of two stocks and imply a “net neutral” market position.

Aside from all the above reasons as to why it would be a potential misconception to draw simply conclusions on short percentages, there are even wider issues to consider. ASIC itself will admit that short position data is not an exact science given the onus on market participants to declare to their broker when positions truly are “short”. Without any suggestion of deceit, there are always participants who are ignorant of the regulations. Discrepancies can also arise when short positions are held by a large investment banking operation offering multiple stock market services as well as proprietary trading activities. Such activity can introduce the possibility of either non-counting or double-counting when custodians are involved and beneficial ownership issues become unclear.

Finally, a simple fact is that the Australian Securities Exchange also keeps its own register of short positions. The figures provided by ASIC and by the ASX at any point do not necessarily correlate.

FNArena has offered this qualified explanation of the vagaries of short stock positions as a warning to subscribers not to jump to any conclusions or to make investment decisions based solely on these unqualified numbers. FNArena strongly suggests investors seek advice from their stock broker or financial adviser before acting upon any of the information provided herein.

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