Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes

This story features ATLAS ARTERIA, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALX

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday July 2 to Friday July 6, 2018
Total Upgrades: 6
Total Downgrades: 10
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 44.69%; Hold 40.28%; Sell 15.03%

Unsurprisingly, the positive momentum in the Australian share market has triggered more downgrades than upgrades for ASX-listed stocks from stockbroking analysts. For the week ending Friday, 6th July 2018 FNArena registered six upgrades versus ten downgrades.

Four of the six moved to Buy with Atlas Arteria, FlexiGroup, Iluka Resources and Sigma Healthcare all enjoying an extra Buy rating. Four of the downgrades shifted to Sell with Domino's Pizza receiving two of those. The other receivers of a fresh Sell rating were ASX and Magellan Financial Group.

Plenty of positive movements in consensus price targets with Reliance Worldwide grabbing the lead for the week (+6.8%), followed by FlexiGroup, Iluka Resources, and Western Areas. The negative side only contains a small number of stocks, but the negative adjustments are huge. Sigma Healthcare -hardly a surprise- suffered the heaviest blow post loss of a major distribution contract, followed by Aveo Group, then Galaxy Resources.

The table for positive revisions to earnings forecasts is pretty much an all-resources affair with Syrah Resources on top, followed by Western Areas, Newcrest Mining, Orocobre, Santos, and Alumina ltd. The flipside has Perseus Mining receiving the biggest negative adjustment, followed by Sigma Healthcare, Atlas Arteria, and Galaxy Resources.

The local corporate calendar remains thin, but confession season continues to draw out bomb shells in the local share market, predominantly among small caps, with macroeconomic matters dominating in a global risk off environment that ironically has benefited Australian equities over the past two months or so.

Any sector updates on energy or mining should provide ongoing positive momentum to most stocks involved.

Upgrade

ATLAS ARTERIA ((ALX)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/1/0

Atlas Arteria, formerly Macquarie Atlas Roads, has made its final performance fee payments to Macquarie Group ((MQG)), from which it was originally spun off. Of the $115m paid, $90m was raised by issuing scrip to Macquarie at a 5% premium to yesterday's close, eliciting exclamation from Morgans. The balance was paid in cash.

Morgans has adjusted for the payment/raising and updated forex forecasts, noting particular exposure to the euro. Target rises to $6.76 from $6.53 and on a 10% plus forecast total shareholder return, the broker upgrades to Add from Hold.

BEACH ENERGY LIMITED ((BPT)) Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/4/1

Beach Energy has reported a "material increase" in its oil and gas reserves and Ord Minnett has taken the view this event clarifies the medium-term production growth profile, hence an upgrade to Hold from Lighten.

From this moment onwards, the company's production volumes are expected to remain around current levels, explain the analysts. Target price lifts to $1.80 from $1.40. Forecasts have received a substantial shot in the arm, but DPS estimates have fallen.

CIMIC GROUP LIMITED ((CIM)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Deutsche Bank .B/H/S: 1/3/1

Deutsche believes CIMIC's market valuation has moved to a more realistic level and, given the stock's more balanced risk-reward profile, upgrades to Hold from Sell. CIMIC's 12-month price-earnings multiple has fallen from 22x to 18x and the stock's previous close was $41.68 – just above the broker's target of $40.50, which is unchanged.

FLEXIGROUP LIMITED ((FXL)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Credit Suisse believes that for the first time in a long time FlexiGroup has a reasonable chance of meeting FY earnings forecasts. FY19 should show flat to modest growth. The broker has thus upgraded to Outperform from Neutral but warns it is not so much of an "upgrade" story as it is "no more downgrades".

Even at a single digit multiple, FlexiGroup is not without its risks, the broker warns. But the Australian card business and cost-outs should prove key earnings drivers. Target rises to $2.45 from $1.85.

ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED ((ILU)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 4/1/1

Citi has upgraded Iluka Resources to Buy from Neutral, citing higher production and sales, improved pricing and a weaker Australian dollar.

Estimates for earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortisaton per share rise 9% in 2018 and 24% in 2019.

Target price jumps to $13.70 from $10.72.

SIGMA HEALTHCARE LIMITED ((SIG)) Upgrade to Buy from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 1/1/2

Citi upgrades Sigma Healthcare to Buy from Sell, after confirmation the Chemist Warehouse contract will not be renewed.

The broker cuts earnings per share estimates across FY19-FY21 (-15%, -34% and -17% respectively) to reflect new guidance arising from the news. Target price falls to 55c from 70c.

The broker notes the share price has already fallen -40%, hence the upgrade. Capital management and acquisitions remain as upside risks given the slowing in the underlying revenue. The broker says Sigma will have to choose carefully.

Downgrade

AVEO GROUP ((AOG)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/1/0

Macquarie downgrades retirement village company AVEO Group to Neutral from Outperform, in response to signs of mounting pressure on fundamentals.

The broker notes project completions are and will continue to outpace settlements and that this cash flow gap will exacerbate the risk arising from the weaker property market and compromise its capital position.

Earnings per share estimates are revised up 8%, 8% and 20% across FY18 to FY20 to account for higher completions. The target price falls to $2.65 from $4.15 and is set at a discount to the broker's valuation of $3.26 to reflect ongoing headwinds.

ASX LIMITED ((ASX)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 0/2/6

Even though they see the risk for any disappointments as low in the short term, Citi analysts cannot get past the fact ASX shares seem expensively priced. For this reason, the rating has been downgraded to Sell from Neutral. Target price lifts to $58.40 from $57.85.

COSTA GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((CGC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 2/2/0

UBS downgrades Costa Group to Neutral from Buy on a valuation basis, noting the stock is trading at roughly 27 times the broker's FY19 earnings-per-share estimate.

Triggers to the upside would include a surprisingly strong FY18 result, an upgrade to China guidance or further M&A activity in the avocado business. UBS reduces near-term earnings-per-share forecasts by -2-3%, noting the positive tailwinds of FY18 are likely to wane in 2019.

Target price rises to $8.40 from $7.50 to reflect a higher return on investment capital in the international business and a one-year roll forward of the broker's discounted cash flow valuation.

DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED ((DMP)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Citi and Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 3/2/3

It was only three weeks ago that Citi upgraded to Neutral, which has been acknowledged in today's research update, but the analysts have nevertheless decided it's time to once again downgrade to Sell.

Two reasons for the reversal: a sharp rally in the share price plus the realisation operations in Japan are not meeting expectations. Citi believes market consensus forecasts are due for a downgrade. Price target lifts to $46.30 (was $44.60).

Credit Suisse has downgraded Domino's Pizza Enterprises to Underperform from Neutral, citing structural risks.

The broker believes the negatives: the franchise industry inquiry, rising labour costs, aggregator expansion, franchisee attrition, huge growth needs in Europe and uncertainty in Japan; make it difficult to back the market's sentiment on the stock.

Credit Suisse lowers network forecasts yet again and observes organic store openings appear to be lagging guidance. Target Price falls to $36.76 from $42.47.

INGHAMS GROUP LIMITED ((ING)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 1/5/0

Credit Suisse downgrades to Neutral from Outperform while maintaining a constructive long-term view. However, in the short-term input price pressures (predominately feed) challenging market conditions in New Zealand and a one-off taxation charge point to a muted FY19 EPS outlook.

Of the -11% reduction to forecast FY19 EPS, operational changes account for 6% and a higher tax rate 5%. Target reduced to $4.10 from $4.30.

MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED ((MFG)) Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 3/1/1

Morgan Stanley downgrades Magellan to Underweight from Equal-weight, contrary to consensus, on a persistent slowdown in retail funds flows. Inflows have slowed for the past months and risk turning negative, the broker suggests.

Magellan also charges above-peer fees, suggesting these may come under pressure. Given the fund manager is maturing as a business, there are fewer growth options than previously, the broker notes. Target unchanged at $27. Industry view: In-Line.

NANOSONICS LIMITED ((NAN)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/1/0

Nanosonics has hit Morgans target price so the broker downgrades to Hold from Add, remaining a long-term fan of the stock. The $3.12 target price is retained.

Meanwhile, Canadian and European clearances have been received for the second generation Trophon2 device and the broker expects a launch in early FY19, although a lag would drag on the share price.

VIVA ENERGY REIT ((VVR)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/0/0

Ord Minnett downgrades Viva Energy Reit to Accumulate from Buy on valuation grounds.

The target prices is steady at $2.35, the broker noting news on the capital management front (two institutional 8-10-year term loans totalling $60m and delayed-start interest rate swaps totalling $368m) has done little to change valuations.

WOOLWORTHS LIMITED ((WOW)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 3/3/2

Citi sees the renewed distribution agreement with Caltex ((CTX)) as a positive; it explains why the price target moves by 8% to $32.90. Operationally, the analysts continue to forecast Woolworths will outperform peer Coles ((WES)).

Alas, the recent share price rally cannot be ignored, and thus the recommendation is being pulled back to Neutral from Buy. A better pricing in the new agreement means the JV with Caltex will lead to higher profits from petrol sales.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

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