Australian Broker Call
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May 11, 2018
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
THIS REPORT WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY
Last Updated: 10:31 AM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| AMP - | AMP | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie |
| DMP - | DOMINO'S PIZZA | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | Citi |
| LNK - | LINK ADMINISTRATION | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
| RAP - | RESAPP HEALTH | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
| SUL - | SUPER RETAIL | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| XRO - | XERO | Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform | Macquarie |
Citi rates AMP as Neutral (3) -
AMP's Q1 flows update -pre-Royal Commission embarrassment- were soft and Citi analysts have responded by cutting forecasts by -5-7%. The adjustment should allow for net outflows, accelerated margin squeeze and higher corporate costs that are likely to follow, in their view.
A high degree of uncertainty remains about what exactly will unfold and Citi analysts fully acknowledge they might be significantly underestimating the potential impacts that are yet to materialise.
Neutral/High Risk retained with $4.15 price target, with the explicit caveat that Citi has no idea, and doesn't know how to determine, whether today's share price offers good value, or not.
Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.19
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.53, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 32.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of 10.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 35.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.1, implying annual growth of 4.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates AMP as Outperform (1) -
First quarter cash flow was affected by negative market movements in the quarter. Credit Suisse suggests this may be the last of the "uneventful" quarters for AMP for some time. The broker's forecasts allow for over -$11bn of outflows in wealth management in the next 18 months and a slowing of growth elsewhere for the business.
The broker notes AMP is currently trading at a -30% PE discount to the market and, given the uncertainty and corporate governance issues, suggests it is hard to argue this is not justified. Outperform rating and $4.80 target maintained.
Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.84
If AMP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.53, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of 10.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.1, implying annual growth of 4.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates AMP as Hold (3) -
Deutsche Bank notes the AGM has delivered a significant but not unexpected blow to the board, with a 61% protest vote against the remuneration report.
Given the myriad uncertainties surrounding regulatory reform, strategy and operating expenses the broker retains a Hold rating, despite the compelling fundamental valuation. Target is $4.
Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.04
If AMP meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.53, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of 10.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.1, implying annual growth of 4.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates AMP as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
AMP sustained net outflows of -$200m in the March quarter. As this reflects the performance prior to the Royal Commission, Macquarie expects a further negative impact on flows to be evident from the June quarter onwards.
The broker envisages limited upside to the share price amid the continued distraction from the fall-out of the Royal Commission and downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. The broker also transfers coverage to another analyst. Target is reduced to $4.30 from $5.65.
Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.34
If AMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.53, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 33.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of 10.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 32.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.1, implying annual growth of 4.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates AMP as Add (1) -
First quarter fund flow was mixed. Morgans notes Australian wealth management was weak while AMP Capital and the bank division had a good quarter.
The broker notes the portfolio review has been pushed back, which is prudent given more pressing priorities, although it does delay a potential catalyst.
Morgans downgrades FY18 and FY19 estimates for earnings per share by -2-3%. Add rating maintained. Target is reduced to $4.56 from $4.94.
Target price is $4.56 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.6
If AMP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.53, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.70 cents and EPS of 34.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of 10.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 29.10 cents and EPS of 36.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.1, implying annual growth of 4.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates AMP as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett lowers earnings estimates to reflect weak markets, the adverse publicity from the Royal Commission and increased costs of regulation as well as some further client remediation. This has led to a -7% decline in FY19 earnings forecasts.
Accumulate rating maintained. Target is reduced to $4.84 from $5.90, as the broker factors in a -15% discount to account for the risk that vertical integration is eliminated.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $4.84 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.88
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.53, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of 10.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.1, implying annual growth of 4.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates AMP as Sell (5) -
Assessment of AMP can now be divided into two eras, the broker suggests, pre- and post-RC. Clearly post-RC will prove a less healthy environment, hence the pre-RC March Q numbers are of concern. Wealth management suffered net outflows and there is little evidence of growth elsewhere, the broker notes.
AMP was cautious on costs at the AGM, assuming higher than expected costs of customer remediation and related expenses from ASIC reviews. The broker retains Sell and a $3.80 target.
Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.53, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of 10.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.1, implying annual growth of 4.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BBN BABY BUNTING GROUP LIMITED
Apparel & Footwear
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Overnight Price: $1.55
Macquarie rates BBN as Neutral (3) -
Macquarie notes sector rationalisation has again materialised and affected market share and margins. While the company's competitive position is improving for the medium-long-term, the broker remains wary of Amazon's Prime roll-out that could put the baby goods category in focus and strengthen competition.
The broker requires evidence of an improvement in performance and market conditions and retains a Neutral rating. Target is reduced to $1.25 from $1.35.
Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If BBN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.59, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.20 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.9, implying annual growth of -18.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 6.90 cents and EPS of 9.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.7, implying annual growth of 22.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $6.65
Deutsche Bank rates BLD as Buy (1) -
The company has announced the sale of the concrete and quarries business in Denver Colorado for US$127m. Proceeds from the sale will be used to reduce debt.
Buy rating retained. Price target is $7.65.
Target price is $7.65 Current Price is $6.65 Difference: $1
If BLD meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.78, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.0, implying annual growth of 33.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.0, implying annual growth of 17.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates BLD as Outperform (1) -
The company has announced the sale of its concrete & quarries business in Denver, Colorado. The sale, for US$127m, is at a discount to listed peers but, as a single asset, Macquarie believes the multiple represents a fair price.
The broker suggests divesting this non-core asset will likely improve management's focus as well as the balance sheet. Outperform rating and $8.45 target maintained.
Target price is $8.45 Current Price is $6.65 Difference: $1.8
If BLD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.78, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.50 cents and EPS of 41.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.0, implying annual growth of 33.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 49.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.0, implying annual growth of 17.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.25
Citi rates CSR as Neutral (3) -
Citi analysts thought CSR's FY18 report was hard to fault, with the added comment this was the company's best in eleven years! The balance sheet has recovered remarkably and now expected to move into net cash next year.
Citi does, however, also believe the report marks the peak for the current cycle, with risks now seen as evenly balanced. Any retreat from here is not predicted to become a sharp weakening, the analysts emphasise.
Estimates have been increased. Target price $5.39. Neutral rating retained.
Target price is $5.39 Current Price is $5.25 Difference: $0.14
If CSR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.16, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.7, implying annual growth of -10.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.8, implying annual growth of -7.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $29.88
Ord Minnett rates CTX as Hold (3) -
It is customary for Caltex to provide a first quarter measure of net profit and divisional earnings at its AGM but this was absent this year. Ord Minnett finds the absence of divisional earnings understandable given the planned change in divisions, as refining and supply & marketing will be replaced by convenience retail and fuels & infrastructure.
Yet the absence of a first quarter update on RCOP net profit was disappointing and inconsistent, the broker suggests. Hold rating and $34 target maintained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $29.88 Difference: $4.12
If CTX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $36.19, suggesting upside of 21.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 106.00 cents and EPS of 214.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 233.3, implying annual growth of -2.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 130.00 cents and EPS of 236.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 240.7, implying annual growth of 3.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 120.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DMP DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $42.80
Citi rates DMP as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -
Citi analysts now believe the specific risks surrounding Domino's Pizza have been priced in, suggesting limited downside, apart from day-to-day volatility. Hence the rating is upgraded to Neutral from Sell.
Interestingly, the analysts do not think the company will achieve its 20% growth target for the running year, but forecast 16% instead, with the added comment this is in line with market consensus.
The analysts are anticipating a tighter trading range. Price target $44.60.
Target price is $44.60 Current Price is $42.80 Difference: $1.8
If DMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $47.25, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 110.20 cents and EPS of 156.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 155.3, implying annual growth of 33.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 136.00 cents and EPS of 192.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 191.5, implying annual growth of 23.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 141.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.03
Deutsche Bank rates DOW as Buy (1) -
Management's presentation has reinforced Deutsche Bank's view that Downer has a strong management team and governance processes.
Buy rating. Target is $8.28.
Target price is $8.28 Current Price is $7.03 Difference: $1.25
If DOW meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.47, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.2, implying annual growth of 15.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 50.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.3, implying annual growth of 19.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates DOW as Outperform (1) -
The company has reiterated FY18 guidance for net profit of $295m. Macquarie suggests the company's realignment of the Spotless ((SPO)) management, structure and governance to coincide more with its own approach should yield benefits over time from increased accountability.
The broker expects growth may be more measured now, but also more sustainable. Outperform rating and $7.60 target maintained.
Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $7.03 Difference: $0.57
If DOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.47, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 44.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.2, implying annual growth of 15.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.90 cents and EPS of 49.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.3, implying annual growth of 19.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates DOW as Lighten (4) -
The company's investor briefing suggested the business is being positioned well to meet the challenges and capitalise on future opportunities. Ord Minnett notes challenges continue with respect to Spotless ((SPO)), which is 88% owned by Downer.
Also, specifically, the Royal Adelaide contract remains cash negative and is not expected to be turned around for several months. Lighten rating and $6.15 target maintained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $7.03 Difference: minus $0.88 (current price is over target).
If DOW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.47, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.2, implying annual growth of 15.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.3, implying annual growth of 19.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates DOW as Buy (1) -
Downer EDI reiterated FY18 guidance at its investor day and reaffirmed that assumed cost-outs targets from integrating Spotless are likely to exceed the original estimate over time. Management was also confident of a favourable resolution with regard the Royal Adelaide Hospital contract.
The broker remains attracted to Downer's earnings growth outlook given ongoing investment in infrastructure. Buy. Target $7.60.
Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $7.03 Difference: $0.57
If DOW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.47, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 47.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.2, implying annual growth of 15.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.3, implying annual growth of 19.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $9.12
UBS rates GMG as Neutral (3) -
Goodman's March Q update indicated strong momentum across all parts of the business, the broker notes. Work in progress is stable but commencements increased and occupancy is at 98%. Assets under management growth of 7% surprised to the upside.
The broker retains Neutral on valuation and an $8.45 target, acknowledging upside risk to earnings.
Target price is $8.45 Current Price is $9.12 Difference: minus $0.67 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $8.63, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 46.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.6, implying annual growth of 9.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 30.10 cents and EPS of 50.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.6, implying annual growth of 4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
LNK LINK ADMINISTRATION HOLDINGS LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $7.24
Citi rates LNK as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -
It's the "material uncertainty" that has triggered the downgrade to Neutral from Buy, with Citi analysts adding the loss of the CareSuper contract, while small in impact, is not helping sentiment either.
The proposed measures in the Federal Budget are now overshadowing the positive narrative, and Citi analysts have decided to slightly reduce their forecasts, and cut their target to $8.10 from $9.85, on the uncertainty that will linger for longer.
Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $7.24 Difference: $0.86
If LNK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.57, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 41.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.3, implying annual growth of 69.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 46.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.3, implying annual growth of 15.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates LNK as Add (1) -
The company has indicated that the changes proposed for inactive superannuation member balances may have a material impact. Link has also disclosed that it has lost CareSuper as a fund administration client.
Morgans considers, at this stage, the company's commentary regarding the federal budget impact is vague. The broker estimates a -2-5% impact on earnings per share in FY20 on the back of the new rules. The loss of CareSuper impacts revenue by around -1%.
While the broker considers the budget news disappointing the stock appears oversold. Add rating maintained. Target is lowered to $8.52 from $8.75.
Target price is $8.52 Current Price is $7.24 Difference: $1.28
If LNK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.57, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.20 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.3, implying annual growth of 69.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 46.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.3, implying annual growth of 15.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates LNK as Hold (3) -
The company has announced the loss of another key client as well as acknowledging the potential impact from the federal budget. Ord Minnett revises forecasts -3% lower from FY19 to reflect the loss of the CareSuper mandate.
Link has indicated that the federal legislation may have a material impact on earnings but has stated it is too early to quantify. Ord Minnett reduces estimates by -10% from FY20 onwards. Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $7.57 from $8.17.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $7.57 Current Price is $7.24 Difference: $0.33
If LNK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.57, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.3, implying annual growth of 69.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.3, implying annual growth of 15.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $8.84
Citi rates NUF as Buy (1) -
If the Investor Day had one message it is that Nufarm, nearing the end of a three year business transformation process, has multiple levers for growth, report analysts at Citi. They reiterate their Buy rating.
Management stated the integration of acquisitions in Europe is progressing well, with guidance surprising to the upside. In addition, Citi analysts found earnings potential for Omega 3 canola, with Nufarm potentially providing the first plant based source of long chain Omega 3, is better than expected. Target price $10.
Citi finds the shares are cheap against historical and global peer valuations, with the integration of recent acquisitions now key to closing the gap.
Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.84 Difference: $1.16
If NUF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.87, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 43.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.9, implying annual growth of -8.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 54.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.6, implying annual growth of 38.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates NUF as Outperform (1) -
In the wake of the company's strategy presentation Credit Suisse envisages enough potential upside to maintain an Outperform rating and $9.45 target.
There appears to be more confidence with respect to recovery from the delayed northern hemisphere planting than the broker had expected and and this mitigates some of the downside carried into FY19 forecasts.
The broker envisages ample opportunity for above-market growth in northern hemisphere markets, amid opportunities to expand the footprint in North America and the recent European portfolio acquisition.
Target price is $9.45 Current Price is $8.84 Difference: $0.61
If NUF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.87, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 42.05 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.9, implying annual growth of -8.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 54.37 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.6, implying annual growth of 38.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates NUF as Sell (5) -
The company highlighted the benefits of its European acquisitions at its investor briefing and provide an update on the status of Omega-3.
Nufarm considers there are opportunities to mitigate the risk of the European Commission's restriction on the use of neonicotinoids from FY19.
Deutsche Bank maintains a Sell rating as the stock is trading at a 26% premium to valuation. Target is $7.
Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $8.84 Difference: minus $1.84 (current price is over target).
If NUF meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.87, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.9, implying annual growth of -8.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 51.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.6, implying annual growth of 38.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates NUF as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie is more confident about the growth potential from Omega-3 after the investor briefing.
The company projects a shortage of fish oil by 2028 and, the broker calculates, in a scenario where Nufarm captures 15% of the shortage this should translate to EBITDA of $128m by FY28.
Outperform rating maintained. Target rises to $10.40 from $9.65.
Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $8.84 Difference: $1.56
If NUF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.87, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.40 cents and EPS of 44.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.9, implying annual growth of -8.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 19.50 cents and EPS of 65.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.6, implying annual growth of 38.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PDL PENDAL GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $9.79
Credit Suisse rates PDL as Neutral (3) -
First half results were stronger than expected. Credit Suisse finds the stock inexpensive, with its PE near 5-year lows although risks around flows are elevated.
The broker envisages opportunities for the strategies that are performing strongly and attracting inflows, although the argument could be made that some of these strategies are niche and have small capacity, being easily influenced by asset class and risk allocations.
Neutral rating and $9.75 target maintained.
Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $9.79 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If PDL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $10.90, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 64.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.8, implying annual growth of 14.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 68.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.9, implying annual growth of 6.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates PDL as Outperform (1) -
First half net profit was ahead of expectations. As the business continues to perform well and trends are improving in Australia Macquarie envisages scope for the current discount to unwind.
The broker maintains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $11.00 from $10.50.
Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $9.79 Difference: $1.21
If PDL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.90, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 64.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.8, implying annual growth of 14.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 65.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.9, implying annual growth of 6.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates PDL as Neutral (3) -
Pendal Group's profit result substantially beat the broker on an asset sale gain and lower employee costs. While a lower cost base will assist going forward, indications are for elevated fixed cost growth in the medium term, the broker notes.
The broker sees margins moderating from first half record levels from weaker funds flow and lower performance fee prospects. Valuation looks appealing but earnings downside risk keeps the broker on Neutral. Target rises to $10.50 from $10.10.
Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.79 Difference: $0.71
If PDL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.90, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 64.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.8, implying annual growth of 14.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.9, implying annual growth of 6.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
RAP RESAPP HEALTH LIMITED
Medical Equipment & Devices
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Overnight Price: $0.14
Morgans rates RAP as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -
The company expects to report the headline results from two clinical studies by mid this year. The company has now enrolled 640 patients in its SMARTCOUGH-C-2 study to evaluate the efficacy of the ResAppDx smartphone application in the diagnosis of childhood respiratory diseases.
Morgans makes no changes to forecasts but reduces the discount to valuation ahead of the expected release of the key clinical results. Rating is upgraded to Add from Hold and the target to $0.28 from $0.12.
Target price is $0.28 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.14
If RAP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.24
Deutsche Bank rates SGP as Buy (1) -
The company has noted, during its investor briefing, that the Sydney residential market is moderating and new releases are taking longer to sell. Despite the longer marketing periods management remains confident of achieving 6500 settlements in FY18.
Buy rating. Target is $4.89.
Target price is $4.89 Current Price is $4.24 Difference: $0.65
If SGP meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.50, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.0, implying annual growth of -29.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.4, implying annual growth of -1.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates SGP as Neutral (3) -
Macquarie suggests the risks in the business are increasing as it pivots more towards industrial, retirement and medium density housing development. The company has now officially down-weighted its targeted capital allocation to the retail sector to 40-50% from 45-50% previously.
Offsetting the reduced exposure to retail is increased weighting to logistics and business parks. Macquarie suggests, in light of ongoing population growth, the company should be increasing its capital allocation to residential development. Neutral rating and $4.27 target maintained.
Target price is $4.27 Current Price is $4.24 Difference: $0.03
If SGP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.50, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.50 cents and EPS of 30.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.0, implying annual growth of -29.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.60 cents and EPS of 32.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.4, implying annual growth of -1.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.39
Macquarie rates SGR as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie reviews the opportunity in the development proposal for five apartment/hotel towers around The Star Gold Coast. Apartment demand will be the main determinant for further tower developments but the business is considered well-positioned versus other developers.
The broker suggests the longer-term growth opportunities are not appropriately reflected in the share price. Outperform rating retained. Target rises to $6.25 from $6.05.
Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $5.39 Difference: $0.86
If SGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.17, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.50 cents and EPS of 29.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.9, implying annual growth of -15.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.3, implying annual growth of 12.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SUL SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED
Automobiles & Components
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Overnight Price: $7.72
Ord Minnett rates SUL as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -
Ord Minnett considers the Australian consumer outlook robust because of employment growth, while the launch of Amazon has been underwhelming.
Despite the company's recent share price performance, the broker considers the risk/reward ratio for investors is attractive, even if only the automotive and capital targets are met. The broker upgrades to Buy from Hold and raises the target to $9 from $8.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.72 Difference: $1.28
If SUL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.52, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.8, implying annual growth of 35.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 75.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.1, implying annual growth of 10.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.72
Credit Suisse rates SWM as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse adjust forecasts to reflect the new cricket deal and the improved TV advertising market. The broker focuses on FY20 as the first "clean" year that will give a fair indication of maintainable earnings under the new deals.
The broker now assumes a 40% long-term market share for Seven West Media. FY18 estimates for EBITDA are increased by 4%. FY19 estimates are lowered by -11%, because of the addition of cricket costs. Neutral rating and $0.65 target maintained.
Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If SWM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.61, suggesting downside of -16.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.35 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 9.12 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.5, implying annual growth of 20.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.40
UBS rates TAH as Buy (1) -
The lower house has passed a bill banning synthetic lotteries, which the broker sees as a minor positive for Tabcorp as synthetics are competition. The bill still has to pass through the senate and possibly face a High Court challenge, as protagonist Lottoland has signalled.
Moving forward the broker suggests there is mounting pressure on Tabcorp to support newsagents, which generate 50% plus of their revenues from lotteries and are under threat from on-line. The broker can't rule out the possibility of an online commission being payed to newsagents, which would impact on lottery margins.
Buy and $5.20 target retained.
Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.40 Difference: $0.8
If TAH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.23, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 17.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 21.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of 34.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
TWE TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $19.16
Credit Suisse rates TWE as Underperform (5) -
Credit Suisse notes the 2018 vintage is high-cost and good-quality. In the commercial and lower masstige segments challenges to raised prices are likely and the broker would not be surprised if management embarks on a cost reduction program to offset vintage costs in FY19 and FY20.
For the higher end and luxury wines the broker expects prices to be raised in FY20 and FY21, when 2018 vintages are released. Underperform rating maintained as the stock is considered overvalued. Target is raised to $15.65 from $15.35.
Target price is $15.65 Current Price is $19.16 Difference: minus $3.51 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $16.63, suggesting downside of -13.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 51.68 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.8, implying annual growth of 33.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 62.93 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.9, implying annual growth of 26.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $39.89
Macquarie rates XRO as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -
The company reported a net loss of NZ$27.8m, better than expected. Macquarie observes FY18 was a transition year as the company reported its first positive EBITDA and operating cash flow. The improvement reflects ongoing growth in the subscriber base.
Earnings are beginning to highlight the significant operating leverage within the business and Macquarie upgrades assumptions. Rating is raised to Neutral from Underperform. Target is increase to $37.00 from $27.19.
Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $39.89 Difference: minus $2.89 (current price is over target).
If XRO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $39.75, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.45 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 321.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 49.95 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.0, implying annual growth of 295.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 81.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates XRO as Neutral (3) -
Xero posted a strong operating result, in line with the broker ex of one-offs. New subscriber numbers were stronger than expected in the UK, offsetting weakness in A&NZ. The UK should continue to outperform due to new requirements to maintain digital VAT records, the broker suggests.
Commentary on the FY19 cash flow outlook was a little vague, the broker notes, but in line with forecasts. Neutral and $42.50 target retained.
Target price is $42.50 Current Price is $39.89 Difference: $2.61
If XRO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $39.75, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.58 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 321.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.0, implying annual growth of 295.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 81.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| AMP | AMP | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $3.96 |
| Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.96 | ||
| Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $3.96 | ||
| Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.96 | ||
| Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $3.96 | ||
| Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.96 | ||
| Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $3.96 | ||
| BBN | BABY BUNTING | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.55 |
| BLD | BORAL | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $6.65 |
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $6.65 | ||
| CSR | CSR | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $5.25 |
| CTX | CALTEX AUSTRALIA | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $29.88 |
| DMP | DOMINO'S PIZZA | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $42.80 |
| DOW | DOWNER EDI | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $7.03 |
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $7.03 | ||
| Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $7.03 | ||
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $7.03 | ||
| GMG | GOODMAN GRP | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $9.12 |
| LNK | LINK ADMINISTRATION | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $7.24 |
| Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $7.24 | ||
| Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $7.24 | ||
| NUF | NUFARM | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $8.84 |
| Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $8.84 | ||
| Sell - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $8.84 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $8.84 | ||
| PDL | PENDAL GROUP | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $9.79 |
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $9.79 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $9.79 | ||
| RAP | RESAPP HEALTH | Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.14 |
| SGP | STOCKLAND | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $4.24 |
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.24 | ||
| SGR | STAR ENTERTAINMENT | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $5.39 |
| SUL | SUPER RETAIL | Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $7.72 |
| SWM | SEVEN WEST MEDIA | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $0.72 |
| TAH | TABCORP HOLDINGS | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $4.40 |
| TWE | TREASURY WINE ESTATES | Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $19.16 |
| XRO | XERO | Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $39.89 |
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $39.89 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 17 |
| 2. Accumulate | 1 |
| 3. Hold | 16 |
| 4. Reduce | 1 |
| 5. Sell | 3 |
Friday 11 May 2018
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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