Australian Broker Call
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November 23, 2017
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
Last Updated: 10:40 AM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| AMC - | AMCOR | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| MTR - | MANTRA GROUP | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
| WEB - | WEBJET | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Credit Suisse |
| WTC - | WISETECH GLOBAL | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | Citi |
UBS rates A2M as Neutral (3) -
The company's latest update signalled to UBS that all regions were progressing well.
UBS believes there is a risk that the step up in November/December 2016 will not be repeated, but this is mitigated by a2 Platinum being the third bestselling infant formula brand on Tmall in China on Singles Day.
The broker upgrades FY18 estimates by 20% and longer-term earnings estimates by over 50%. Neutral maintained, as this is largely captured in the share price. Target is raised to NZ$8.20 from NZ$5.27.
Current Price is $7.98. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $8.85, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.32 cents and EPS of 22.64 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.80 cents and EPS of 28.79 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.1, implying annual growth of 32.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.4. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates ACK as Hold (3) -
The company has announced Project Clearwater, a program to lift the profile of its business and distinguish it from competitors.
In addition, the company will re-brand and rename Austock Group as Generation Development Group and Austock Life as Generation Life.
Morgans believes Project Clearwater should refresh and strengthen the franchise as the company is at a critical point where it has a solid base but needs to accelerate growth. Hold rating retained. Target rises to $1.07 from $0.96.
Target price is $1.07 Current Price is $1.07 Difference: $0
If ACK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.90 cents and EPS of 1.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 1.30 cents and EPS of 1.80 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates ALQ as Hold (3) -
First half results were slightly disappointing, although Morgans found nothing too dramatic other than the market getting ahead of itself regarding the pace of the commodities recovery.
The broker is now comfortable that earnings risks are more evenly balanced versus revised forecasts..
Hold rating retained. Target is reduced to $7.44 from $7.55.
Target price is $7.44 Current Price is $7.28 Difference: $0.16
If ALQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.13, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.3, implying annual growth of 62.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.9, implying annual growth of 32.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates AMC as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -
Ord Minnett observes the stock has come under pressure in recent months following speculation it is looking to acquire Bemis Co, amid soft commentary at the AGM. The broker believes a deal with Bemis is unlikely at current levels and the trading headwinds that were flagged by management are temporary.
The stock stands out from other industrials under coverage and the broker also notes upside to earnings expectations may stem from free cash flow being deployed into value-accretive acquisitions.
Recommendation is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. Target is raised to $16.85 from $16.10.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $16.85 Current Price is $15.46 Difference: $1.39
If AMC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.23, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 58.96 cents and EPS of 85.17 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 61.58 cents and EPS of 95.65 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.1, implying annual growth of 9.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates CAJ as Outperform (1) -
The company provided a solid trading update which has driven an 18% upgrade to Credit Suisse forecasts. The broker also suggests the pathway to further upgrades has several streams, as consolidation opportunities are being actively pursued.
Valuation appears undemanding. Outperform rating retained and target is raised to $0.37 from $0.35.
Target price is $0.37 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: $0.06
If CAJ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.54 cents and EPS of 1.19 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.73 cents and EPS of 1.61 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates CCL as Neutral (3) -
The company has indicated Australian operating earnings could be up to -$40m lower in 2018 as future savings are invested in order to stem the declines in volumes.
Beyond 2018 the downgrade is less clear to Citi, given indications there won't be a repeat of the investment. The broker wants more detail before making a judgement. Neutral rating and $9.10 target maintained.
Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $7.69 Difference: $1.41
If CCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.68, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 55.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.3, implying annual growth of 71.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 54.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.8, implying annual growth of -0.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates CCL as Hold (3) -
Management has reiterated 2017 guidance for net profit to be broadly in line with 2016. The main development in the latest presentation is that there will be $40m in investments made in the Australian business ahead of cost reductions being realised.
Deutsche Bank interprets this as indicating the business is already under structural pressure and reduced demand. Downgrades to expectations are expected of at least -5% in 2018 and, in the broker's opinion, very little of the investment is likely to be recovered in 2019.
Hold rating retained and target is reduced to $7.80 from $8.50.
Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $7.69 Difference: $0.11
If CCL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.68, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.3, implying annual growth of 71.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 56.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.8, implying annual growth of -0.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates CCL as Outperform (1) -
The company has reaffirmed 2017 net profit to be broadly in line with 2016. 2018 is to be affected by the pulling forward of reinvestment plans, with an additional $40m to be spent on marketing, cold drink equipment and price.
Macquarie acknowledges the return on this operating expenditure is uncertain, and there are risks around the budget increasing, but notes market expectations are already quite low.
Outperform. Price target is raised to $9.06 from $8.80.
Target price is $9.06 Current Price is $7.69 Difference: $1.37
If CCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.68, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 45.80 cents and EPS of 55.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.3, implying annual growth of 71.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 42.20 cents and EPS of 52.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.8, implying annual growth of -0.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates CCL as Underweight (5) -
The company has reaffirmed that underlying net profit will be broadly in line with 2016. Around $40m of reinvestment will be brought forward into 2018 that is not expected to be offset by cost savings.
Assuming the investment generates modest improvements in volume growth, Morgan Stanley estimates a 2018 earnings impact of around -2%.
Target is $8. Underweight. Cautious industry view.
Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.69 Difference: $0.31
If CCL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.68, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 46.20 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.3, implying annual growth of 71.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.8, implying annual growth of -0.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CCL as Hold (3) -
The company has guided to 2017 underlying net profit to be broadly in line with 2016. 2018 earnings will be affected by the acceleration of reinvestment in Australian beverages. Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating and $8.25 target.
The broker envisages emerging valuation support for the stock, believing cost savings are being realised and execution appears to be improving. Indonesia also remains an attractive long-term growth opportunity
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $7.69 Difference: $0.56
If CCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.68, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.3, implying annual growth of 71.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.8, implying annual growth of -0.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CTX as Neutral (3) -
October refiner margins and sales volume production for Lytton appear to UBS to be averaging well above 2016 levels.
The broker expects the company will look to extend Lytton's life beyond the next turnaround and inspection in 2020, prompting an increase in valuation.
Neutral retained. Target rises to $35.00 from $33.40.
Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $34.10 Difference: $0.9
If CTX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.91, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 120.00 cents and EPS of 238.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.6, implying annual growth of 3.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 121.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 114.00 cents and EPS of 228.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 235.0, implying annual growth of -1.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 120.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates FLT as Sell (5) -
Citi observes international airfares have stabilised over the past six months after a strong period of deflation. The broker envisages risks emerging from excess supply in the second half.
This is expected to be a drag on growth for the Australasian division, which contributes over half of the transaction value.
The broker remains cautious on the outlook for Flight Centre. Sell rating retained. Target is lowered to $45.00 from $45.50.
Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $47.12 Difference: minus $2.12 (current price is over target).
If FLT meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $44.98, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 149.50 cents and EPS of 249.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 249.4, implying annual growth of 9.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 153.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 172.80 cents and EPS of 278.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 272.3, implying annual growth of 9.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 168.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates GNC as Buy (1) -
FY17 results were incrementally negative and below Deutsche Bank's expectations amid rail disruptions, FX headwinds and underlying weakness in the food market.
Deutsche Bank reduces FY18 estimates by -7%, largely to reflect lower storage & logistics and oils margins. Further afield, FY19 estimates move 2% higher to reflect a partial benefit from the cost reduction program.
Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $9.70 from $10.00.
Target price is $9.70 Current Price is $7.96 Difference: $1.74
If GNC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.93, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.5, implying annual growth of -26.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.9, implying annual growth of 25.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates IDX as Outperform (1) -
An improving environment for billings and progress on cost containment has supported the company's first upgrade to expectations since its October 2015 IPO. Credit Suisse suspects there could be more to come.
Acquisitions are also another value driver as the company is actively pursuing opportunities. The broker considers the stock in value territory and maintains an Outperform rating. Target is raised to $2.00 from $1.90.
Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: $0.15
If IDX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.83, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 8.18 cents and EPS of 11.69 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.6, implying annual growth of 8.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.22 cents and EPS of 13.18 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.4, implying annual growth of 6.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley observes the AGM has dispelled conversion fears regarding direct shipping ore operations, as some feared it was being stockpiled. There was also better visibility on the potential of Wodgina.
Guidance is for Mount Marion to achieve full production by July 2018. Morgan Stanley expects significant expansion in the company's lithium carbonate equivalent production and prefers the stock as a lithium play.
Overweight. Target is raised to $22.30 from $19.20. Industry view is Attractive.
Target price is $22.30 Current Price is $19.39 Difference: $2.91
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $19.77, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 59.20 cents and EPS of 124.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 131.3, implying annual growth of 22.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 116.60 cents and EPS of 265.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 190.0, implying annual growth of 44.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 91.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates MTR as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -
The ACCC has indicated it will undertake a public review process as part of the Accor transaction. Citi does not believe the review will derail the deal.
The combined entity would have a material market share in certain areas that may mean carve-outs are required. If this were to occur, the broker suspects some BreakFree properties could be targeted, as these are most exposed to Airbnb.
Target is raised to $3.96 from $3.20. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy, given limited upside to the current share price.
Target price is $3.96 Current Price is $3.91 Difference: $0.05
If MTR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.74, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 17.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.8, implying annual growth of 16.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.60 cents and EPS of 18.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.4, implying annual growth of 9.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates QUB as Buy (1) -
AGM commentary was cautious, in Ord Minnett's opinion, but the long-term thesis is intact and the broker believes investors should take advantage of the current share price weakness.
Ports & bulk appear to have started off better in FY18 than logistics, with steady volumes and increased activity in oil & gas. Logistics has been affected by low grain volumes as well as competitive market conditions.
Buy rating and $3 target maintained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: $0.47
If QUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.78, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.5, implying annual growth of 38.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.7, implying annual growth of 16.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates QUB as Neutral (3) -
The company has released an outlook with expectations that are broadly in line with UBS forecasts.
Some commentary pointed towards ongoing pressure within the Patrick joint venture and cost pressures in logistics, but the broker considers the issues have been Incorporated into the numbers.
The main driver in the broker's opinion will be more customer announcements for Moorebank to provide further proof of concept.
Neutral. Target is $2.80.
Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: $0.27
If QUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.78, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 7.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.5, implying annual growth of 38.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 9.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.7, implying annual growth of 16.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates SCO as Buy (1) -
The company intends to generate around 30% of its FY20 revenue from non-debtor finance sources, versus 10% in FY17.
This will include existing, but less mature products, expansion of UK trade finance and entering into equipment finance. Citi increases FY18-20 estimates by 1% to reflect the acceleration in book growth.
Target rises to $3.61 from $3.60. Buy retained.
Target price is $3.61 Current Price is $3.12 Difference: $0.49
If SCO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 23.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates STO as Neutral (3) -
While acknowledging the difficulty in predicting outcomes from speculation about acquisitions, Citi suspects the board and shareholders are unwilling to engage at a $5.30 per share bid, and the likely outcome is that Harbour Energy walks away in coming months.
Despite maintaining a Neutral rating, Citi believes the outlook for the underlying business is perhaps the strongest it has been as new management demonstrates a turnaround in culture and capital discipline.
While the prospect of a deal may create short-term distractions, the broker believes the company's conservative guidance creates a platform to unlock meaningful deep value. Target is raised $5.16 from $4.71.
Target price is $5.16 Current Price is $5.16 Difference: $0
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.74, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.91 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of 28.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates WEB as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
Guidance was clearly soft while Credit Suisse notes the market was looking for some certainty after the significant M&A activity over the past 18 months.
The need for clarity on various matters is likely to mean the stock is range bound in the near-term. That said, the broker remains a believer in the value proposition of the B2B offering but the proving up of this thesis is expected to be an FY19-20 story.
Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is reduced to $11.80 from $13.15.
Target price is $11.80 Current Price is $10.35 Difference: $1.45
If WEB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.45, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 22.44 cents and EPS of 42.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.8, implying annual growth of -9.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 29.95 cents and EPS of 56.36 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.6, implying annual growth of 32.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates WEB as Underweight (5) -
The company has provided operating earnings guidance of $80m, below Morgan Stanley's expectations. Guidance includes around $5.6m of one-off costs.
The broker notes negative first half cash flow is implied as a result of timing of the JacTravel integration, which signals an outsized second half is required.
Underweight. Industry view: In line. Target is $11.35.
Target price is $11.35 Current Price is $10.35 Difference: $1
If WEB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.45, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 60.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.8, implying annual growth of -9.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 35.50 cents and EPS of 79.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.6, implying annual growth of 32.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates WEB as Add (1) -
FY18 guidance was weaker than Morgans expected but the usual degree of conservatism is suspected, as well as an added layer of currency volatility because of a large exposure to Europe/UK.
Importantly, the broker notes integration of JacTravel is on track. While the share price reaction highlights the risk inherent in such companies that do not deliver on expectations, Morgans believes the basis of its investment thesis remains intact, as there is a strong growth outlook over the next three years.
Add rating. Target is reduced to $12.50 from $13.40.
Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $10.35 Difference: $2.15
If WEB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.45, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.8, implying annual growth of -9.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.6, implying annual growth of 32.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates WEB as Neutral (3) -
FY18 operating earnings guidance of $80m has been provided, below UBS estimates by around -7%. The guidance reflects inclusion of acquisition costs for JacTravel and a Netflix tax impact on Online Republic, as well as additional costs incurred by Thomas Cook.
Following the announcement UBS reduces forecasts for earnings per share by -11% in FY18 and -10% in FY19.
Neutral. Target is reduced to $11.60 from $12.50.
Target price is $11.60 Current Price is $10.35 Difference: $1.25
If WEB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.45, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 43.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.8, implying annual growth of -9.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.90 cents and EPS of 56.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.6, implying annual growth of 32.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates WTC as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -
Citi analysts make an extra effort to highlight they remain a huge fan of this company and its capable management, it's just that the share price valuation is now at stratospheric highs that can no longer be justified on standard financial numbers.
Hence the downgrade to Sell from Hold. Revenue forecasts have been upped slightly, the price target goes up by 23% to $9.19. The latter, explain the analysts, is to better reflect strong organic growth, growing global footprint and strong, ongoing R&D investments.
Recent acceleration in global freight volumes is seen as yet another positive.
Target price is $9.19 Current Price is $12.47 Difference: minus $3.28 (current price is over target).
If WTC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.55, suggesting downside of -39.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 15.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.3, implying annual growth of 40.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 81.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 20.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.0, implying annual growth of 30.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 62.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| A2M | THE A2 MILK CO | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $7.98 |
| ACK | AUSTOCK | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.07 |
| ALQ | ALS LIMITED | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $7.28 |
| AMC | AMCOR | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $15.46 |
| CAJ | CAPITOL HEALTH | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $0.31 |
| CCL | COCA-COLA AMATIL | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $7.69 |
| Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $7.69 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $7.69 | ||
| Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $7.69 | ||
| Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $7.69 | ||
| CTX | CALTEX AUSTRALIA | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $34.10 |
| FLT | FLIGHT CENTRE | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $47.12 |
| GNC | GRAINCORP | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $7.96 |
| IDX | INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $1.85 |
| MIN | MINERAL RESOURCES | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $19.39 |
| MTR | MANTRA GROUP | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $3.91 |
| QUB | QUBE HOLDINGS | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.53 |
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $2.53 | ||
| SCO | SCOTTISH PACIFIC | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $3.12 |
| STO | SANTOS | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $5.16 |
| WEB | WEBJET | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $10.35 |
| Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $10.35 | ||
| Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $10.35 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $10.35 | ||
| WTC | WISETECH GLOBAL | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $12.47 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 8 |
| 2. Accumulate | 1 |
| 3. Hold | 12 |
| 5. Sell | 4 |
Thursday 23 November 2017
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