Australian Broker Call

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July 22, 2019

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
ADI - APN INDUSTRIA REIT Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
AVN - AVENTUS GROUP Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Macquarie
S32 - SOUTH32 Upgrade to Add from Hold Morgans
SKI - SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE Downgrade to Reduce from Hold Morgans
URW - UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform Macquarie
A2M  THE A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED

Dairy

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Overnight Price: $16.42

Morgans rates A2M as Hold (3) -

Morgans upgrades forecasts and is now slightly ahead of FY19 guidance, noting the company has a track record of surprising to the upside. While expecting the upcoming results will beat guidance, the broker requires more clarity on the outlook.

Morgans believes the stock is fairly priced and maintains a Hold rating. Target is raised to $15.35 from $13.66.

Target price is $15.35 Current Price is $16.42 Difference: minus $1.07 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.91, suggesting downside of -9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 38.53 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 47.92 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.8, implying annual growth of 26.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.6.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ADI  APN INDUSTRIA REIT

REITs

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Overnight Price: $2.84

Macquarie rates ADI as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

While the expected lift in assets is intact, Macquarie finds a reduction in M&A appeal. Growthpoint Properties ((GOZ)) had stated it had received interest from third parties acquiring its stake but no transaction is expected at this time.

Moreover, the lease of Link Market Services ((LNK)) expires at Rhodes in FY22 and will be a headwind for the company if not re-signed. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is reduced to $2.87 from $3.03.

Target price is $2.87 Current Price is $2.84 Difference: $0.03
If ADI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.88, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 15.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of -73.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 17.40 cents and EPS of 16.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.6, implying annual growth of 2.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APA  APA GROUP

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $10.83

Morgans rates APA as Hold (3) -

Morgans updates its forecasts to allow for low government bond yields. While the impact on forecasts is minimal for the short term the compounding effects mean long-term earnings are revised down and the valuation revised higher.

The broker believes the company can grow its distributions at a mid-single digit rate while also funding investment and debt reduction. Hold maintained. Target rises to $10.94 from $9.47.

Target price is $10.94 Current Price is $10.83 Difference: $0.11
If APA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.80, suggesting downside of -9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 47.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.34%.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.9, implying annual growth of 6.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.5.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 49.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.55%.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.9, implying annual growth of 16.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AVN  AVENTUS GROUP

REITs

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Overnight Price: $2.46

Macquarie rates AVN as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie believes regulatory changes in the last few months should benefit residential markets and assist the company's tenant base. The broker expects few surprises in the FY19 results.

Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral as the stock is offering an attractive yield and sector-level growth. Target is raised 38% to $2.90.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.46 Difference: $0.44
If AVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.47, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.60 cents and EPS of 17.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of -34.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.90 cents and EPS of 18.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.6, implying annual growth of 2.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CHC  CHARTER HALL GROUP

REITs

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Overnight Price: $11.50

Macquarie rates CHC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie increases the target by 20% to $12.80 to reflect the company's continued ability to attract capital from third parties. The broker forecasts FY19 and FY20 growth in earnings per share of 24% and 25%, respectively.

If assets under management can growth by 10% per annum then this could reach $50bn in five years, the broker calculates. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $11.50 Difference: $1.3
If CHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.74, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 33.70 cents and EPS of 47.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.6, implying annual growth of -16.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.8.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 40.80 cents and EPS of 58.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.2, implying annual growth of 30.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COE  COOPER ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $0.55

Morgans rates COE as Add (1) -

Morgans observes the company is in striking distance of starting up the Sole gas project, which will transform earnings. Exploration in the offshore Otway Basin is underway and the first well, Annie-1, will be spudded late July/August.

The company met guidance in FY19 with strong full year production of 1.31 mmboe, albeit down on FY18 owing to natural field decline. Add rating maintained. Target is raised to $0.66 from $0.59.

Target price is $0.66 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.11
If COE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 68.75.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.48.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRN  CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES

Coal

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Overnight Price: $3.62

Morgans rates CRN as Add (1) -

Morgans is somewhat assured by robust metallurgical coal sales in the June quarter. The robust production and costs came from critical assets, Curragh and Buchanan, and demonstrate the flexibility in operations.

The broker envisages scope for another special dividend to be declared at the August 5 result but the potential size may be tempered by a softening of coal prices. Add rating maintained. Target is reduced to $4.00 from $4.05.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.62 Difference: $0.38
If CRN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.27, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 53.29 cents and EPS of 61.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 14.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 16.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.8.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 32.25 cents and EPS of 49.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.5, implying annual growth of -21.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 12.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSR  CSR LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $4.34

Macquarie rates CSR as Outperform (1) -

Revised commodity price assumptions lead to large earnings downgrades in FY21 and FY22. Macquarie's investment thesis is built on building products - 80% of valuation - and supported by upside in property (14% of valuation).

Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $4.65 from $4.70.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $4.34 Difference: $0.31
If CSR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.53, suggesting downside of -18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 25.50 cents and EPS of 33.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of -16.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 26.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.8, implying annual growth of -7.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EPW  ERM POWER LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $1.91

Macquarie rates EPW as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie assesses the refinancing of the Neerabup facility has locked in certainty. Meanwhile, the retail business is considered attractive for investors as the company benefits from the lag between customer contract prices and fall in underlying prices.

The broker highlights that the business will always be vulnerable to the majors seeking more share. Outperform maintained. Target is increased to $2.05, reflecting a lower discount rate and benefits of earnings improvement.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: $0.14
If EPW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.03, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 16.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.3, implying annual growth of -36.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.50 cents and EPS of 24.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.6, implying annual growth of 24.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG  FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $8.89

Morgans rates FMG as Reduce (5) -

Morgans struggles to justify the share price in value terms. Iron ore would need to average US$130/t for the next two years to justify the share price.

The broker does not envisage the current earnings upgrade cycle will catch up with the current share price and maintains a Reduce rating. The main risk is an unexpected structural change in the iron ore market. Target is raised to $6.15 from $5.94.

The broker also assesses Fortescue Metals is in an ideal position to pursue a larger push into other metals. This could mean the company makes a move on a comparatively smaller, mid-cap base metal peer.

Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $8.89 Difference: minus $2.74 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.25, suggesting downside of -7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 96.76 cents and EPS of 120.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 129.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 126.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 14.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.9.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 61.70 cents and EPS of 122.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 165.5, implying annual growth of 28.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 140.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 15.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IEL  IDP EDUCATION LIMITED

Education & Tuition

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Overnight Price: $18.95

UBS rates IEL as Sell (5) -

UBS considers conditions are buoyant for 96% of the company's student placement services. Recognising this is just one part of the story, a strong macro backdrop should provide potential upside, the broker adds.

While liking the long-term structural outlook and the digital opportunity, UBS struggles with the valuation. Hence, a Sell rating is maintained. Target is raised to $15.40 from $12.90.

Target price is $15.40 Current Price is $18.95 Difference: minus $3.55 (current price is over target).
If IEL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.67, suggesting downside of -12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 67.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.3, implying annual growth of 27.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 72.1.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 54.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.9, implying annual growth of 28.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 55.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPH  IPH LIMITED

Legal

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Overnight Price: $8.30

Morgans rates IPH as Add (1) -

Following an increase in market multiples, Morgans lifts the PE and enterprise value/operating earnings (EBITDA) multiples implied in its valuation.

Given the acquisition of Xenith IP ((XIP)) is likely to proceed and, based on Morgans' analysis of the accretion generated by the transaction, a 10% premium is applied to valuation.

This generates a target of $8.51 versus $6.33 previously. Add rating maintained.

Target price is $8.51 Current Price is $8.30 Difference: $0.21
If IPH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.77.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.41.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IVC  INVOCARE LIMITED

Consumer Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $15.16

Macquarie rates IVC as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie suggests the death volume forecasts from the Australian Bureau of Statistics are too bullish.

The broker envisages attractive growth for the business in the medium to longer term but downside risk exists if FY19 volumes are below expectations, given the share price rally.

Neutral maintained. Target is raised to $16 from $14.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $15.16 Difference: $0.84
If IVC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.24, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 36.60 cents and EPS of 48.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.5, implying annual growth of 41.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.3.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 54.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.7, implying annual growth of 7.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NAB  NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $27.56

Citi rates NAB as Buy (1) -

The bank has appointed Ross McEwan as CEO and managing director, commencing April 2020 as soon as his current obligations with Royal Bank of Scotland have concluded. The elongated timetable leaves the leadership structure in a holding pattern, in Citi's view.

Still, the broker believes the new combination with Phil Chronican as chairman is an experienced team and will be a strong as any in the market. Buy rating and $29.50 target.

Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $27.56 Difference: $1.94
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.11, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 166.00 cents and EPS of 198.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 205.4, implying annual growth of -4.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 166.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 168.00 cents and EPS of 213.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 217.8, implying annual growth of 6.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 166.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PNL  PARINGA RESOURCES LIMITED

Coal

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Overnight Price: $0.10

Macquarie rates PNL as Outperform (1) -

The Big River Electric Corp has terminated its sales agreement because of the delay in delivery of first coal. Paringa Resources stated its other contracts remain in good standing.

Macquarie reduces ramp-up assumptions, given slower operating rates, and sales volume forecasts are lowered for FY19-21.

The broker notes the business is well funded. Outperform rating. Target is reduced -13% to 13c.

Target price is $0.13 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.03
If PNL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.68 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.94.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.18.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPC  PEET & COMPANY LIMITED

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $1.15

Macquarie rates PPC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie forecasts FY19 net profit of $48.3m, a -1.5% reduction on FY18. The broker expects FY20 earnings per share to decline -22%, reflecting softer residential markets. FY21 should improve on the back of better sentiment.

Outperform maintained. Target is raised to $1.33 from $1.11.

Target price is $1.33 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.18
If PPC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.70 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.50.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 4.10 cents and EPS of 7.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.94.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QBE  QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $11.72

Morgan Stanley rates QBE as Overweight (1) -

QBE has announced the new Ogden Rate in the UK will result in a -US$60m impact to pre-tax earnings in the first half. This is more severe than Morgan Stanley had estimated.

The charge implies a -11% reduction to first half and -6% reduction to FY19 cash earnings, all else being equal.

Overweight rating maintained. Target is $12.70. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $12.70 Current Price is $11.72 Difference: $0.98
If QBE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.88, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 84.14 cents and EPS of 92.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 93.90 cents and EPS of 102.31 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 96.9, implying annual growth of 11.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 82.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RRL  REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $6.51

Credit Suisse rates RRL as Underperform (5) -

The company's reserve and resources update was better than Credit Suisse expected. There is only a -1% decrease in reserves from depletion as resources have increased 4%. Grades are up marginally.

Aggressive exploration at Duketon continues. The broker retains an Underperform rating and a $4.45 target.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $6.51 Difference: minus $2.06 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.77, suggesting downside of -26.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.48 cents and EPS of 33.05 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.7, implying annual growth of -5.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 21.89 cents and EPS of 43.77 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.3, implying annual growth of 20.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32  SOUTH32 LIMITED

Mining

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Overnight Price: $3.09

Morgans rates S32 as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Selling the South African Energy Coal business is a major catalyst for the company. Morgans expects the sale to be finalised in the first half of FY20.

The main benefit in the divestment comes from improved competitiveness in key areas, assuming the company does not recover material proceeds from the sale.

The company will write down a big portion of its remaining $70m in carrying value at the August result before it divests the business. South 32 has also considered offloading its underperforming manganese alloy assets.

Morgans upgrades to Add from Hold, as the stock is sold off just at the time of the company approaching a major catalyst. Target is reduced to $3.45 from $3.49.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $3.09 Difference: $0.36
If S32 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.41, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.43 cents and EPS of 26.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 15.43 cents and EPS of 30.85 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of -8.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SKI  SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE GROUP

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $2.33

Morgans rates SKI as Downgrade to Reduce from Hold (5) -

Morgans suspects the company will need to cut its distribution to around $0.105 per security from $0.15 per security, in FY21, because of the macroeconomic and regulatory headwinds and the increasing tax take.

For a yield based stock this poses downside risk and the broker downgrades to Reduce from Hold. The target is reduced to $1.96 from $2.25.

Target price is $1.96 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If SKI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.25, suggesting downside of -3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.44%.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.8.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.44%.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.4, implying annual growth of -4.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SM1  SYNLAIT MILK LIMITED

Dairy

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Overnight Price: $9.46

Morgans rates SM1 as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) -

Synlait Milk is nearing completion of the second major capital expenditure phase, during which it will invest NZ$400m in four major growth projects. Morgans believes the new investment will drive strong volume-led earnings growth over FY19-21.

However, with legal proceedings risking the time of the Pokeno commissioning, the broker initiates coverage with a Hold rating and $10.10 target. Morgans awaits a resolution in order to de-risk the company's strong growth outlook.

Target price is $10.10 Current Price is $9.46 Difference: $0.64
If SM1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.10, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 46.04 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 54.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.0, implying annual growth of 20.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO  SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $6.91

Credit Suisse rates STO as Neutral (3) -

Production in the second quarter was in line with Credit Suisse forecasts. However, domestic gas price realisation in the Cooper and Western Australia was below assumptions.

The broker envisages upside from the Dorado, Barossa and Quadrant synergies but this is offset by political risk in PNG and risk to longer-term reserves/costs onshore, particularly GLNG.

Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $6.44 from $6.52.

Target price is $6.44 Current Price is $6.91 Difference: minus $0.47 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.09, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.52 cents and EPS of 68.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.32 cents and EPS of 69.68 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.1, implying annual growth of 2.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SYD  SYDNEY AIRPORT HOLDINGS LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $7.95

Macquarie rates SYD as Neutral (3) -

International passenger growth was 1.1% in June while domestic passenger growth fell -1.6%. Macquarie assesses investors are still focused on the negative traffic cycle, which is now turning. The main uncertainty lies with the re-negotiation with airlines.

With massive moves in regulatory returns, Macquarie expects some of this to be reflected in the stock. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $8.16 from $8.39.

Target price is $8.16 Current Price is $7.95 Difference: $0.21
If SYD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.38, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 18.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of 5.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 41.50 cents and EPS of 19.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.0, implying annual growth of 8.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates SYD as Resume Coverage with Hold Rating (3) -

Ord Minnett resumes coverage with a Hold rating and $7.90 target. The broker has a positive outlook for all four divisions (retail, aeronautical, property and parking) and believes good investment opportunities will enhance returns.

Nevertheless, the stock is trading on elevated multiples. The main challenges are slowing international passenger growth, the move to a taxpaying entity in 2021/22 and the opening of Western Sydney airport at Badgery's Creek in 2026.

Catalysts include a potential rebound in international passenger growth and the possibility of spreading aircraft movement caps over a long time period at the curfew-constrained Kingsford Smith airport.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $7.95 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If SYD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.38, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of 5.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.0, implying annual growth of 8.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates SYD as Sell (5) -

There was a -1.6% decline in domestic and a 1.1% rise in international traffic in June, both weaker numbers than in May. UBS believes this supports the view there are a number of weak travel trends that are likely to cause potential downside for the remainder of this year.

This, in turn, underpins the broker's Sell rating. Recent outperformance of the stock reflects a 1.5 percentage point contraction in bond yields over the past seven months.

A continuation of this to trend is likely to present a risk to the call, the broker concedes, particularly given the stock is yielding 4.9% on this year's distribution guidance. Target is $7.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.95 Difference: minus $0.95 (current price is over target).
If SYD meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.38, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of 5.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.4.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.0, implying annual growth of 8.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TCL  TRANSURBAN GROUP

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $15.01

Morgans rates TCL as Hold (3) -

Morgans revises down key modelling assumptions to reflect the implications of low government bond yields. Short-term forecasts are relatively unaffected. The decline in government bond yields partly reflects weaker inflation expectations but also implies a softer economic environment.

Structural drivers of population growth and urban congestion are likely to continue supporting traffic growth but the sensitivity to an economic slowdown may be heightened on roads with a high proportion of trucks.

Morgans expects second half operating earnings (EBITDA) to be up 14% and driven by acquisitions and the expansion benefits in Melbourne. Hold rating maintained. Target rises to $14.13 from $12.09.

Target price is $14.13 Current Price is $15.01 Difference: minus $0.88 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.25, suggesting downside of -11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 59.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.93%.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of -2.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 67.9.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 61.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.11%.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.3, implying annual growth of 14.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 59.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

URW  UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD

REITs

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Overnight Price: $10.16

Macquarie rates URW as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Macquarie suspects the company's growth rate will disappoint the market. The large balance sheet is also at risk of devaluations. Despite this, the stock is trading at a -40% discount to net asset value and the broker upgrades to Neutral from Underperform.

Target is reduced -7% to $9.93, reflecting an increase in cap rate expansion assumptions and reflecting continued downside risk to asset values.

Target price is $9.93 Current Price is $10.16 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If URW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.27, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 86.23 cents and EPS of 95.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 87.99 cents and EPS of 97.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.7, implying annual growth of 2.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WGN  WAGNERS HOLDING COMPANY LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $1.89

Morgans rates WGN as Hold (3) -

Morgans observes the share price is under pressure as, along with its building materials peers, there is uncertainty around domestic demand.

The sector has de-rated significantly over the last nine months, as investors have had to incorporate a sudden gap in the cycle, given delayed infrastructure projects have failed to pick up the slack left by a slowing in high-density multi-residential activity.

This is particularly evident in south-east Queensland. The broker envisages a number of infrastructure projects at an economic distance from south-east Queensland that could add to the company's near-term earnings.

Morgans maintains a Hold rating and reduces the target to $2.08 from $2.17.

Target price is $2.08 Current Price is $1.89 Difference: $0.19
If WGN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.14, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 3.30 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.1, implying annual growth of -52.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.10 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.2, implying annual growth of 1.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WPL  WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $33.74

Credit Suisse rates WPL as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse observes the shutdown at Pluto has affected revenue and production costs in the second quarter. Yet, the negatives in the June quarter are largely considered one-off and, the broker suspects, over emphasised by the market.

On fundamentals, Credit Suisse envisages upside from Scarborough and the interconnector are not being valued accordingly by the market. Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $37.67 from $37.92.

Target price is $37.67 Current Price is $33.74 Difference: $3.93
If WPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.62, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 159.87 cents and EPS of 200.53 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 211.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 166.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 172.49 cents and EPS of 215.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 240.8, implying annual growth of 13.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 187.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Broker New Target Prev Target Change
A2M A2 MILK Morgans 15.35 13.66 12.37%
ADI APN INDUSTRIA REIT Macquarie 2.87 3.00 -4.33%
APA APA Morgans 10.94 9.47 15.52%
AVN AVENTUS GROUP Macquarie 2.90 2.10 38.10%
CHC CHARTER HALL Macquarie 12.80 10.64 20.30%
COE COOPER ENERGY Morgans 0.66 0.59 11.86%
CRN CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES Morgans 4.00 4.05 -1.23%
CSR CSR Macquarie 4.65 4.70 -1.06%
EPW ERM POWER Macquarie 2.05 1.85 10.81%
FMG FORTESCUE Morgans 6.15 5.94 3.54%
IEL IDP EDUCATION UBS 15.40 12.90 19.38%
IPH IPH Morgans 8.51 6.33 34.44%
IVC INVOCARE Macquarie 16.00 14.00 14.29%
PNL PARINGA RESOURCES Macquarie 0.13 0.15 -13.33%
PPC PEET & COMPANY Macquarie 1.33 1.11 19.82%
S32 SOUTH32 Morgans 3.45 3.49 -1.15%
SKI SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE Morgans 1.96 2.25 -12.89%
STO SANTOS Credit Suisse 6.44 6.52 -1.23%
SYD SYDNEY AIRPORT Macquarie 8.16 8.39 -2.74%
Ord Minnett 7.90 8.05 -1.86%
TCL TRANSURBAN GROUP Morgans 14.13 12.09 16.87%
URW UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD Macquarie 9.93 10.65 -6.76%
WGN WAGNERS HOLDING Morgans 2.08 2.17 -4.15%
WPL WOODSIDE PETROLEUM Credit Suisse 37.67 37.92 -0.66%
Summaries
A2M A2 MILK Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $16.42
ADI APN INDUSTRIA REIT Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.84
APA APA Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $10.83
AVN AVENTUS GROUP Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.46
CHC CHARTER HALL Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $11.50
COE COOPER ENERGY Add - Morgans Overnight Price $0.55
CRN CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES Add - Morgans Overnight Price $3.62
CSR CSR Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.34
EPW ERM POWER Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.91
FMG FORTESCUE Reduce - Morgans Overnight Price $8.89
IEL IDP EDUCATION Sell - UBS Overnight Price $18.95
IPH IPH Add - Morgans Overnight Price $8.30
IVC INVOCARE Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $15.16
NAB NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK Buy - Citi Overnight Price $27.56
PNL PARINGA RESOURCES Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.10
PPC PEET & COMPANY Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.15
QBE QBE INSURANCE Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $11.72
RRL REGIS RESOURCES Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $6.51
S32 SOUTH32 Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $3.09
SKI SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE Downgrade to Reduce from Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $2.33
SM1 SYNLAIT MILK Initiation of coverage with Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $9.46
STO SANTOS Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $6.91
SYD SYDNEY AIRPORT Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $7.95
Resume Coverage with Hold Rating - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $7.95
Sell - UBS Overnight Price $7.95
TCL TRANSURBAN GROUP Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $15.01
URW UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $10.16
WGN WAGNERS HOLDING Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $1.89
WPL WOODSIDE PETROLEUM Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $33.74
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

13

3. Hold

11

5. Sell

5

Monday 22 July 2019

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