Australian Broker Call
August 10, 2017
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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Last Updated: 02:57 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| ASX - | ASX | Upgrade to Hold from Lighten | Ord Minnett |
| SWM - | SEVEN WEST MEDIA | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
Citi rates AGL as Neutral (3) -
In an initial response, Citi analysts find AGL's FY17 performance beat company guidance and market consensus, including Citi's expectation (though not by much).
A potential disappointment might stem from the fact management has now declared a preference for growth over more capital management, suggest the analysts.
Guidance for FY18 seems to be in line with expectations. Neutral. Target $25.91.
Target price is $25.91 Current Price is $24.99 Difference: $0.92
If AGL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.91, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 93.10 cents and EPS of 119.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 117.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 89.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 112.00 cents and EPS of 155.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 153.6, implying annual growth of 30.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 114.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates AMP as Neutral (3) -
It appears AMP's interim release slightly beat market consensus, including Citi's estimate. Core earnings, however, proved below Citi's estimate. A new reinsurance deal with Gen Re will release some $500m in capital, the analysts add.
The interim dividend is a disappointment. Franking was higher than expected, at 90%. All in all, a positive, but not spectacularly so, in Citi's opinion. Neutral rating retained. Target unchanged at $5.60.
Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.41 Difference: $0.19
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.65, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 34.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 36.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.9, implying annual growth of 2.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates ASX as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -
Ord Minnett reviews the stock's business model and takes a more positive view of medium-term earnings growth prospects and a reduced discount rate that reflects a defensive nature of the company's earnings stream.
Ord Minnett believes the stock is currently fairly priced. Rating is upgraded to Hold from Lighten and the target raised to $52.79 from $48.50.
Target price is $52.79 Current Price is $52.58 Difference: $0.21
If ASX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $49.58, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 199.00 cents and EPS of 225.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 225.6, implying annual growth of 2.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 202.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 207.00 cents and EPS of 234.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 233.7, implying annual growth of 3.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 208.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates AWE as Buy (1) -
Citi notes AWE has upgraded Waitsia 2P reserves by 25%, to 448PJ gross. The analysts observe this seems conservative given operator Origin Energy ((ORG)) is carrying higher numbers.
Citi itself continues to model a 550PJ gross resource for Waitsia. There was also an impairment to the Ande Ande Lumut (AAL) value, and Citi now estimates AWE’s carry value for the asset sits at $70m. The analysts note this is still above the stockbroker's risked adjusted valuation ($40m), but below the unrisked valuation ($163m).
Target price moves to 66c on minor changes to the modeling (was $0.63). Buy rating retained.
Target price is $0.66 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.195
If AWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.52, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates AWE as Neutral (3) -
The company has taken a pre-tax impairment and finally succumbed to what Credit Suisse believes many had already assumed, that Ande Ande Lumut is not high on Santos' ((STO)) radar and the project is unlikely to be sanctioned soon.
Media reports suggest that Santos is looking to offload its stake and AWE may have to relinquish a portion of its US$88m free carry to progress the opportunity further. The broker believes the lack of a share price reaction, somewhat proves this situation.
Meanwhile, the company has upwardly revised its reserves for BassGas and Waitsia. Credit Suisse retains a Neutral rating and $0.50 target.
Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.035
If AWE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.52, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.43 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.28 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates AWE as Hold (3) -
AWE's plan to write down the value of its undeveloped Ande Ande Lumut (AAL) oil project in Indonesia comes as no surprise to the broker. Both project delays and a low oil price are behind the decision. Hold and 50c target retained.
Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.035
If AWE meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.52, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates AWE as Neutral (3) -
The company has announced upgrades to 2P reserves across Waitsia and BassGas but uncertainty at Ande Ande Lumut results in an impairment and reserve downgrade.
Macquarie believes the stock is fully valued at the current share price but envisages upside if the company can deliver on its Waitsia timeline.
Neutral and 50c target retained.
Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.035
If AWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.52, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates AWE as Neutral (3) -
The company has released its reserves and resources statement. 2P reserves at Waitsia have increased by 25% and BassGas reserves by 13%.
The company has also re-classified reserves associated with the undeveloped Ande Ande Lumut oil field to 2C contingent resources, because of a combination of sustained low oil prices and the news that operator Santos ((STO)) has placed its 50% stake in the project on the market. This has resulted in AWE writing down its carrying value for AAL by $220-230m.
UBS retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target of $0.55 from $0.56.
Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.085
If AWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.52, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates CAR as Buy (1) -
Citi analysts conclude that Carsales.com delivered a solid performance in FY17 and growth internationally will diversify the business away from a maturing domestic market, they add.
Citi analysts are forecasting 3-year EPS CAGR of +12%. They maintain the $13.75 target price, as well as the Buy rating.
Target price is $13.75 Current Price is $12.88 Difference: $0.87
If CAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.18, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 55.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 50.60 cents and EPS of 62.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.2, implying annual growth of 9.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates CAR as Neutral (3) -
FY17 results were in line with Credit Suisse estimates. The broker found the composition of the result mixed, with core domestic growth slowing in the second half, Stratton appearing to have bottomed, South Korea remaining strong and an improved outlook for Webmotors.
Neutral rating retained. Target rises to $12.80 from $12.60.
Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $12.88 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $13.18, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 44.10 cents and EPS of 55.41 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 61.43 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.2, implying annual growth of 9.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates CAR as Hold (3) -
Carsales' solid result was broadly in line with the broker. A slightly lower core profit on higher costs was balanced by a lower interest cost.
The broker sees more scope for dealer price rises and expects earnings growth to accelerate in FY18 on international momentum and a recovery at Stratton. However this upside is priced in, hence Hold retained. Target unchanged at $13.20.
Target price is $13.20 Current Price is $12.88 Difference: $0.32
If CAR meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.18, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 54.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 60.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.2, implying annual growth of 9.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates CAR as Outperform (1) -
FY17 operating earnings were up 3.6%, which Macquarie considers a solid result reflecting positive momentum from domestic adjacency plus an acceleration in key international associates.
This sets the business up for an acceleration of growth in FY18, concludes the broker. Outperform rating retained. Target rises 6.1% to $14.
Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $12.88 Difference: $1.12
If CAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.18, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 44.30 cents and EPS of 54.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 48.40 cents and EPS of 59.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.2, implying annual growth of 9.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates CAR as Overweight (1) -
FY17 earnings were slightly ahead of Morgan Stanley's expectations. For the year adjusted growth in earnings per share was 7.6% and the broker believes the company needs to augment that growth over the next 2-3 years in order to hold its PE multiple.
Overweight. Industry view is: Attractive. Price target is $12.50.
Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $12.88 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $13.18, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 42.90 cents and EPS of 54.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 57.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.2, implying annual growth of 9.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CAR as Buy (1) -
FY17 results were slightly behind Ord Minnett's estimates. The broker remains positive on the long-term growth story, noting the company continues to invest in adjacent markets and Stratton shows good signs of stabilisation.
Buy rating retained. Target rises to $13.79 from $13.07.
Target price is $13.79 Current Price is $12.88 Difference: $0.91
If CAR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.18, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 45.80 cents and EPS of 54.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 51.90 cents and EPS of 62.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.2, implying annual growth of 9.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CAR as Neutral (3) -
FY17 results were broadly in line with UBS estimates. The broker found FY18 guidance for solid growth in the core was predictably vague but suspects FY18 could deliver similar levels of growth to FY17.
The main positive aspects were that adjacencies and international associations continue to accelerate while core dealer revenues and display were softer than UBS expected. Neutral rating retained. Target rises to $12.50 from $10.50.
Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $12.88 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $13.18, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 60.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.2, implying annual growth of 9.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -
The financial result proved just above expectations, but the second half dividend was a true surprise to Citi. The analysts note the reinstatement of a -1.5% discount on the DRP as CBA moves towards APRA's "Unquestionably Strong" capital requirements.
Another observation made is that while volume growth slowed, revenue growth at CBA remains sector-leading. Citi, however, maintains many of the revenue growth drivers in FY17 are likely to soften in FY18.
Citi retains the view that increased capital to meet regulatory requirements plus an eventual BDD normalisation will drive returns lower. Sell rating retained. Target price lifts to $76.50 from $75.
Target price is $76.50 Current Price is $81.11 Difference: minus $4.61 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $80.60, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 435.00 cents and EPS of 561.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 574.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 433.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 435.00 cents and EPS of 561.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 582.4, implying annual growth of 1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 444.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates CBA as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse found the FY17 result solid and of good quality, but expects it to remain overshadowed by the current governance and control issues. The broker downgrades estimates by -1%.
The Neutral rating and $89 target are unchanged.
Target price is $89.00 Current Price is $81.11 Difference: $7.89
If CBA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $80.60, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 435.00 cents and EPS of 591.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 574.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 433.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 457.00 cents and EPS of 613.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 582.4, implying annual growth of 1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 444.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates CBA as Hold (3) -
CBA's result beat the broker by 2.7% on lower bad debt charges and stronger trading income. A flat net interest margin is a positive and the short term outlook is buoyed by mortgage repricing, the broker notes. A capital ratio of 10.1% is comforting.
CBA is trading at its historical PE relative to peers hence the broker does not see outperformance. The premium to peers should decline as return on equity declines on wealth management debt rolling off and higher housing risk weights flowing through.
Hold retained. Target rises to $84.30 from $83.40.
Target price is $84.30 Current Price is $81.11 Difference: $3.19
If CBA meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $80.60, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 442.00 cents and EPS of 592.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 574.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 433.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 454.00 cents and EPS of 606.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 582.4, implying annual growth of 1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 444.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates CBA as Underperform (5) -
FY17 underlying results were slightly ahead of expectations, underpinned by improved margins in the fourth quarter and highly supportive credit quality.
However, given a desire to invest, the impact of the bank levy, dilution from additional shares and some normalisation of impairment charges, Macquarie's growth forecast for FY18 is only around 1%.
The broker believes this growth profile, coupled with the current regulatory/political uncertainty, is likely to put pressure on the premium valuation. Underperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $80.50 from $81.50.
Target price is $80.50 Current Price is $81.11 Difference: minus $0.61 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $80.60, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 434.70 cents and EPS of 564.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 574.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 433.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 438.50 cents and EPS of 569.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 582.4, implying annual growth of 1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 444.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -
Morgan Stanley observes promising margin trends and good corporate credit quality in the second half but believes the structural and cyclical headwinds weighs on the bank's earnings, returns and trading multiples in FY18.
The broker now expects CBA to reach APRA's 10.5% CET1 target in the second half of FY18. Underweight. Target is $72. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $81.11 Difference: minus $9.11 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $80.60, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 434.00 cents and EPS of 565.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 574.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 433.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 439.00 cents and EPS of 571.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 582.4, implying annual growth of 1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 444.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CBA as Hold (3) -
FY17 cash earnings were ahead of Ord Minnett's forecasts. Despite the positives from the result, such as a higher trading contribution, improved positioning and an increased CET1 ratio, the broker envisages limited FY18 growth in earnings per share.
Hold rating and $76.50 target retained.
Target price is $76.50 Current Price is $81.11 Difference: minus $4.61 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $80.60, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 561.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 574.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 433.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 573.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 582.4, implying annual growth of 1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 444.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates CSV as Equal-weight (3) -
The company has guided to a miss on FY17 revenue and cited expectations for operating earnings to be at the bottom end of the prior range of $27-33m. Morgan Stanley also aligns forecasts with FY18 guidance for revenue growth of 10%.
The broker finds near-term catalysts and investor conviction is lacking. Equal-weight retained. Target is cut to $0.50 from $0.54. In-Line sector view.
Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.02
If CSV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.45, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.5, implying annual growth of 12.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.0, implying annual growth of -23.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates HFA as Outperform (1) -
FY17 results were in line with Macquarie's expectations. The broker believes the outlook is attractive.
The potential for wins on mandates remains and the improvement in performance fees partially reflects more assets under management that are subject to performance fees, as well as more funds achieving high water marks.
Outperform retained. Target rises to $2.85 from $2.78.
Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0.15
If HFA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 22.32 cents and EPS of 16.25 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 23.12 cents and EPS of 16.91 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates HFA as Buy (1) -
FY17 results were in line with Ord Minnett's expectations, supported by robust cash flow. The broker considers the outlook is bright for this business to continue to deliver growth in assets under management.
Ord Minnett maintains a Buy rating and raises the target to $2.90 from $2.80.
Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0.2
If HFA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 12.10 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 12.80 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates ILU as Buy (1) -
UBS revises earnings estimates following the June quarter. On the back of better prices and sales volumes 2017 estimates are lifted by 166% off a low base.
A reported loss of -$89m is expected in the upcoming interim result on August 17, because of an impairment charge for the closure of the Hamilton MSP. Buy rating and $10.60 target retained.
Target price is $10.60 Current Price is $9.31 Difference: $1.29
If ILU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.99, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.6, implying annual growth of 135.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates IPL as Neutral (3) -
The appointment of Ms Jeanne Johns as the company’s new CEO is seen as a positive development. Having said so, the analysts do point out the new CEO will be challenged by strong earnings headwinds given weak commodity markets and a strong AUD.
Citi analysts see little relief on the immediate horizon and stick with their Neutral rating. Target price $4.09 (unchanged).
Target price is $4.09 Current Price is $3.36 Difference: $0.73
If IPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.70 cents and EPS of 21.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.0, implying annual growth of 150.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.70 cents and EPS of 25.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.2, implying annual growth of 22.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates IPL as Buy (1) -
The broker sees the appointment of Jeanne Johns as CEO a minor positive for Incitec given her global experience and time spent with BP. Buy and $4.15 target retained.
Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $3.36 Difference: $0.79
If IPL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.0, implying annual growth of 150.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.2, implying annual growth of 22.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates JHG as Neutral (3) -
In Citi's view, the merged entity's Q2 marks a "promising start" and the analysts have been forced to lift their forecasts. The stockbroker also thinks the shares are fairly valued, hence why the Neutral rating has remained in place.
Increased estimates have pushed up the target price to US$37.00 (from US$34.50). Translating this back to the ASX listing means the price target lifts to $46.80 from $43.65.
Synergies are running ahead of expectations, while net outflows were due to the loss of one large account in fixed outcome and the investment performance is improving too, note the analysts.
Target price is $46.80 Current Price is $45.49 Difference: $1.31
If JHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $47.83, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 208.69 cents and EPS of 344.21 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 295.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 170.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 245.67 cents and EPS of 378.68 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 320.3, implying annual growth of 8.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 196.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates JHG as Buy (1) -
The company delivered a significantly stronger inaugural first half post its merger and ahead of UBS estimates.
The more sustainable components included lower cost ratios, higher assets under management and less negative Janus performance fees. As well, the cost synergy realisation has been more rapid.
The broker retains a Buy rating. Target is raised to US$38.75 from US$36.30.
Current Price is $45.49. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $47.83, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 174.35 cents and EPS of 299.83 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 295.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 170.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 198.12 cents and EPS of 328.89 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 320.3, implying annual growth of 8.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 196.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates JHX as Sell (5) -
Further analysis has taught Citi analysts that James Hardie has been unable to benefit from the decline of vinyls as a proportion of category sales since 2015. This is, conclude the analysts, because the market share gains have gone to LPX and Allura instead with James Hardie's share remaining stable.
The underlying thesis is the company will be forced to spend, and thus sacrifice margin, to command its own market share increase. Citi is sticking to its Sell rating. Target $16 (unchanged).
Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $17.63 Difference: minus $1.63 (current price is over target).
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $19.79, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 46.24 cents and EPS of 75.69 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 50.20 cents and EPS of 81.51 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.3, implying annual growth of 15.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates MFG as Neutral (3) -
The company has launched a new listed investment company, Magellan Global Trust, which will target a 4% cash distribution yield from a portfolio of 15-35 high-quality global companies.
The trust will also offer a distribution reinvestment plan with a 5% discount. Credit Suisse believes the risk is that, introducing discounts for some products could lead to expectations of discounts and other products.
While LICs generally appeal to a different target market the broker believes a large priority discount could also cannibalise flows from higher margin channels.
Neutral and $27 target retained.
Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $27.87 Difference: minus $0.87 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $27.33, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 86.00 cents and EPS of 117.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 116.0, implying annual growth of -6.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 86.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 106.00 cents and EPS of 146.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 134.7, implying annual growth of 16.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 100.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates MIN as Buy (1) -
The broker's site visit to Mt Marion confirms a view the lithium operation is performing very strongly and is on track for further improvements. Performance shows the plant is capable of running 10% above nameplate.
Mineral Resources' Wodgina mine is set to be even bigger and better, the broker suggests, on a much lower cost than Mt Marion. An investment decision in a concentrate plant could come within three months. Buy retained, target rises to $13.50 from $13.00.
Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $13.44 Difference: $0.06
If MIN meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.27, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 117.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 107.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 72.00 cents and EPS of 145.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.5, implying annual growth of 5.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates RWH as Neutral (3) -
FY17 net profit was in line with Macquarie's expectations. The highlight for the broker was improved leasing revenue, driven by further expansion in the construction sector.
The broker believes the bid from GFN Asia Pacific to acquire the remaining 49% of the stock is likely to be successful with the close of the offer period scheduled for August 25.
Target price is $1.83 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: $0.07
If RWH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.60, suggesting downside of -9.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.60 cents and EPS of 10.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 6.50 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.0, implying annual growth of 17.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates SWM as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -
The company is facing pressure on revenue share because of improved programming from Nine Entertainment ((NEC)) as well as a weaker advertising market.
Macquarie expects cost pressures will also weigh, given higher cost for the rights to AFL and tennis that are up for re-negotiation soon.
The negatives outweigh the benefits and the broker downgrades to Underperform from Neutral. Target is reduced to $0.75 from $0.85.
Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If SWM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.76, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 5.60 cents and EPS of 11.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.2, implying annual growth of -8.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.70 cents and EPS of 9.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.5, implying annual growth of -15.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates TLS as Underweight (5) -
Morgan Stanley reduces medium-term revenue and earnings estimates to account for next year's disruption from the fourth mobile operator. The broker believes the business's monopoly returns are fading.
Margins and returns on equity are declining as competition is rising across 75% of the revenue base. While acknowledging dividend support the broker envisages a much wider risk profile as structural change accelerates.
Underweight. Target is reduced to $4.00 from $4.50. Sector view In-Line.
Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.11 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If TLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.35, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 31.50 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.0, implying annual growth of -34.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 31.50 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.4, implying annual growth of 4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| AGL - | AGL ENERGY | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $24.99 |
| AMP - | AMP | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $5.41 |
| ASX - | ASX | Upgrade to Hold from Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $52.58 |
| AWE - | AWE | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $0.47 |
| Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $0.47 | ||
| Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $0.47 | ||
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.47 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $0.47 | ||
| CAR - | CARSALES.COM | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $12.88 |
| Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $12.88 | ||
| Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $12.88 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $12.88 | ||
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $12.88 | ||
| Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $12.88 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $12.88 | ||
| CBA - | COMMBANK | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $81.11 |
| Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $81.11 | ||
| Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $81.11 | ||
| Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $81.11 | ||
| Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $81.11 | ||
| Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $81.11 | ||
| CSV - | CSG | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $0.48 |
| HFA - | HFA HOLDINGS | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.70 |
| Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.70 | ||
| ILU - | ILUKA RESOURCES | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $9.31 |
| IPL - | INCITEC PIVOT | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $3.36 |
| Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $3.36 | ||
| JHG - | JANUS HENDERSON GROUP | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $45.49 |
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $45.49 | ||
| JHX - | JAMES HARDIE | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $17.63 |
| MFG - | MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $27.87 |
| MIN - | MINERAL RESOURCES | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $13.44 |
| RWH - | ROYAL WOLF | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.76 |
| SWM - | SEVEN WEST MEDIA | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.85 |
| TLS - | TELSTRA CORP | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $4.11 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 11 |
| 3. Hold | 18 |
| 5. Sell | 6 |
Thursday 10 August 2017
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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