Australian Broker Call

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May 13, 2019

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
AGL - AGL ENERGY Downgrade to Sell from Neutral Citi
COH - COCHLEAR Downgrade to Neutral from Buy Citi
EVN - EVOLUTION MINING Upgrade to Add from Hold Morgans
FXL - FLEXIGROUP Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Macquarie
OSH - OIL SEARCH Downgrade to Hold from Buy Deutsche Bank
SXY - SENEX ENERGY Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Credit Suisse
A2M  THE A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED

Dairy

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Overnight Price: $14.83

Morgan Stanley rates A2M as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley has recently discussed the outlook for China's infant formula market and prospects with a number of daigou, distributors and industry experts. The broker believes competition from local brands is set to increase, also noting Mead Johnson is likely to launch in organic product in Australia.

Understanding inventory levels in China is difficult, the broker points out, as even daigou is selling to distributors. The broker assesses it is difficult for companies to grow the level of inventory in the system. FY19 is expected to be a banner year for a2 Milk and many tailwinds are not likely to continue in FY20.

Underweight rating. The broker raises the target to $12.40 from $10.50. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $14.83 Difference: minus $4.33 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.93, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 36.43 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.2.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 45.77 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.2, implying annual growth of 27.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.8.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AGL  AGL ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $22.54

Citi rates AGL as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi revamps its model, largely because of updates to consumer market electricity and gas discounts and revenue rates. The broker also marks to market the wholesale electricity prices to reflect the continued rally.

Citi suspects FY20 core net profit will more likely be down and flat. The company has called out specific headwinds for FY20, such as lower electricity prices, higher input fuel costs for thermal generation and the regulated default offers in retail electricity.

Citi considers FY19 is the peak in earnings for AGL and the share price does not reflect this. Rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral. Target is reduced to $20.87 from $22.48.

Target price is $20.87 Current Price is $22.54 Difference: minus $1.67 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.72, suggesting downside of -8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 118.00 cents and EPS of 159.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 192.0, implying annual growth of -20.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 118.00 cents and EPS of 143.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 183.2, implying annual growth of -4.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 115.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AZJ  AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $4.99

Macquarie rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

The broker does not believe a separation of Aurizon's above-rail and below-rail businesses has financial merit. It does believe, however, that a restructuring such that both have similar corporate structures would be a positive. Any initiative is still 6-9 months away as the company awaits the QCA decision on the Network agreement.

Capital management potential can provide support, but this is not a near term catalyst either. Neutral retained, target rises to $4.81 from $4.71.

Target price is $4.81 Current Price is $4.99 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.74, suggesting downside of -5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.10 cents and EPS of 22.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of -17.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 27.50 cents and EPS of 27.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.5, implying annual growth of 15.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP  BHP GROUP

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $36.90

Deutsche Bank rates BHP as Sell (5) -

Deutsche Bank observes BHP is currently investing the lowest amount among the four majors and, along with elevated iron ore prices, this is maintaining cash flows at healthy levels.

Nevertheless, there is a trade-off, BHP will likely deliver the lowest structural operating earnings (EBITDA) growth over the next 3-4 years. The broker anticipates the strategy briefing on May 22 may provide further insights on growth and project priorities.

The company has options in potash, copper and petroleum, although major projects are long dated and will require a step up in investment above the current $8bn ceiling. The broker envisages limited upside for the shares and maintains a Sell rating. Target is $28.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $36.90 Difference: minus $8.9 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $37.32, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 278.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 315.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 314.0, implying annual growth of 12.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 198.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates BHP as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett  suspects the company may face an investment decision on Jansen over the next 6-18 months. The broker estimates phase 1 needs a US$335/t potash price to generate 15% internal rate of return, around 24% ahead of the spot price.

A move into potash look strategically sound because of long-term demand and it also improves the diversity of cash flow. The market is well supplied with potash over the medium term, nevertheless, and the broker suspects this could weigh on prices.

Hold rating and $40 target maintained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $36.90 Difference: $3.1
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.32, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 323.52 cents and EPS of 279.28 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 278.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 315.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 171.44 cents and EPS of 335.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 314.0, implying annual growth of 12.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 198.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CLW  CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT

REITs

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Overnight Price: $4.55

Ord Minnett rates CLW as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett notes the A-REIT has been buying assets in Brisbane with future redevelopment or re-positioning potential but with a robust residual income stream. Rental growth is expected to remain subdued, although the broker envisages some scope for incentives to decline, albeit unlikely to fall below 30%.

The assets at 40 Tank Street and 85 George Street are expected to benefit from the Queens Wharf development and the state government's $5.4bn cross river rail project. The main near-term leasing challenge for the Brisbane market is the mixed use development at 300 George Street. Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating and $4.25 target.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $4.55 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If CLW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting downside of -9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.8, implying annual growth of -28.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.5, implying annual growth of 6.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COH  COCHLEAR LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $193.31

Citi rates COH as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

The share price has rebounded significantly since the company announced the launch of the new MRI compatible implant, Citi observes. The broker downgrades to Neutral From Buy on valuation. Target is steady at $198.

The company's investor briefing has focused on growing the adult market in developed countries where the penetration rate is only 3% and the children's market in developing countries where the penetration rate is around 10%.

Target price is $198.00 Current Price is $193.31 Difference: $4.69
If COH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $170.30, suggesting downside of -11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 335.00 cents and EPS of 481.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 464.9, implying annual growth of 8.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 323.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 385.00 cents and EPS of 550.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 515.9, implying annual growth of 11.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 361.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates COH as Underperform (5) -

Cochlear has outlined its strategic priorities, intending to grow the under-penetrated adult and senior markets. This will be done by building a referral path for adults to move from the hearing aid channel to cochlear implants.

Cochlear is also undertaking a feasibility study for a totally implantable cochlear implant. Credit Suisse suspects that Cochlear will have some challenges in penetrating the hearing aid channel as it does not have a hearing aid offering.

The broker notes there was no update on the FY19 outlook. Underperform rating and $168 target maintained.

Target price is $168.00 Current Price is $193.31 Difference: minus $25.31 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $170.30, suggesting downside of -11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 321.00 cents and EPS of 460.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 464.9, implying annual growth of 8.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 323.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 345.00 cents and EPS of 494.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 515.9, implying annual growth of 11.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 361.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates COH as Sell (5) -

Deutsche Bank notes a number of new features and products characterised the investor briefing. In particular, the changing market landscape is encouraging hearing aid clinics to join the Cochlear provider network, while studies to examine hearing should help in adopting cochlear implants. Sell rating maintained. Target is $151.50.

Target price is $151.50 Current Price is $193.31 Difference: minus $41.81 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $170.30, suggesting downside of -11.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 464.9, implying annual growth of 8.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 323.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 515.9, implying annual growth of 11.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 361.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates COH as Underperform (5) -

Cochlear hosted an investor day on Friday at which no financial updates were provided. The company highlighted the opportunity presented by growth in adult uptake in developed markets along with new initiatives.

The broker sees a focus on increasing adult penetration as positive but sees the benefits as long-dated. In the nearer term to broker highlights risk to earnings from new competitor product launches. Combined with an elevated multiple, this leads to an Underperform rating being retained. Target unchanged at $170.

Target price is $170.00 Current Price is $193.31 Difference: minus $23.31 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $170.30, suggesting downside of -11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 323.80 cents and EPS of 463.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 464.9, implying annual growth of 8.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 323.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 360.50 cents and EPS of 515.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 515.9, implying annual growth of 11.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 361.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates COH as Equal-weight (3) -

The company continues to take back lost market share and Morgan Stanley is now more confident the losses are temporary, as the Nucleus Profile Plus puts Cochlear on an equal footing for MRI compatibility.

The company also has a new app enabled feature to block sound from behind in challenging hearing environments and the new Remote Check program facilitates remote follow-up appointments. Developed market growth has shifted to adults and seniors where awareness and penetration are low.

While the broker likes the business for the long term because of the under-penetrated market the rich valuation keeps the stock on an Equal -weight rating. Target is $179. In-Line industry view.

Target price is $179.00 Current Price is $193.31 Difference: minus $14.31 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $170.30, suggesting downside of -11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 317.30 cents and EPS of 458.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 464.9, implying annual growth of 8.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 323.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 366.00 cents and EPS of 529.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 515.9, implying annual growth of 11.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 361.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates COH as Lighten (4) -

Cochlear's capital markets briefing provided some product updates and more detail on its efforts to open up the hearing aid channel. The company also reiterated estimates regarding the scale of the opportunity in the seniors segment.

The company has noted that MRI compatible implants are now no longer a point of differentiation between competitors and it should be able to return to promoting the superior hearing outcomes offered by its devices.

Ord Minnett maintains a Lighten rating and $162 target.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $162.00 Current Price is $193.31 Difference: minus $31.31 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $170.30, suggesting downside of -11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 324.00 cents and EPS of 464.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 464.9, implying annual growth of 8.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 323.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 366.00 cents and EPS of 516.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 515.9, implying annual growth of 11.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 361.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DXS  DEXUS PROPERTY GROUP

REITs

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Overnight Price: $12.68

Deutsche Bank rates DXS as Hold (3) -

The company has acquired 80 Collins Street Melbourne for around $1.5bn, representing a yield of 5.3%. Dexus acquired a 75% interest with the remaining interest acquired by the Dexus Wholesale Property Fund.

Deutsche Bank favours the Melbourne office market over the Sydney office market but suspects the acquisition will be neutral to FY19 and FY20 earnings. The acquisition increases the company's office exposure in Melbourne to 17% from 9%. Hold rating and $11.63 target maintained.

Target price is $11.63 Current Price is $12.68 Difference: minus $1.05 (current price is over target).
If DXS meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.01, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.6, implying annual growth of -65.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.3, implying annual growth of 6.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN  EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $3.33

Morgans rates EVN as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Morgans upgrades to Add from Hold, given recent share price weakness, with macro events implying further global economic uncertainty and, hence, an increased probability the gold price will appreciate.

The broker notes the company's costs and production guidance have been met for the past seven years and costs are among the lowest in the industry. Target is reduced to $3.55 from $3.85.

A consistent history, along with well-run operations and conservative assumptions provides long-term investors with a lower risk/value proposition, in the broker's view.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $0.22
If EVN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.34, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.2, implying annual growth of -15.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.2.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of 56.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FXL  FLEXIGROUP LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit

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Overnight Price: $1.79

Macquarie rates FXL as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

The highlight of FlexiGroup's update on the progress of its "humm" retail rollout, Macquarie suggests, is that there was no downgrade to FY guidance. This led to a positive market reaction.

From here it will all be about the "humm journey", which is still in its early stages and will result in a multi-year strategic reset. With the rollout supported by existing market stabilisation, Macquarie believes the stock can trade strongly ahead of execution and financial benefit. Upgrade to Outperform, target rises to $2.04 from $1.34.

Target price is $2.04 Current Price is $1.79 Difference: $0.25
If FXL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.77, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 7.30 cents and EPS of 20.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 6.40 cents and EPS of 20.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.0, implying annual growth of 9.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GNC  GRAINCORP LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $7.44

Deutsche Bank rates GNC as Buy (1) -

Deutsche Bank was not impressed with the first half results in terms of the malt and oils division, although expected it to be extremely challenging for grains. The broker expects growth in malt will resume in FY20, while crush margin pressure should ease in FY20 in the oils business.

Significant upside potential exists and the focus now shifts to the finalisation of the grain derivative. Deutsche Bank retains a Buy rating and $10.96 target.

Target price is $10.96 Current Price is $7.44 Difference: $3.52
If GNC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.31, suggesting upside of 25.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is -12.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LOV  LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED

Luxury

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Overnight Price: $9.90

Citi rates LOV as Buy (1) -

Citi's analysis indicates the roll-out of stores in the second half is on track, with upside risk in the US and downside risk in France. The French roll-out has slowed, with Lovisa opening only one new store so far in the second half, below the broker's estimate of five.

The Spanish roll-out is on hold, with a focus on store profitability as this region has been adversely affected by weak macroeconomic conditions and unfavourable locations. Target price is steady at $10.75. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $10.75 Current Price is $9.90 Difference: $0.85
If LOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.33, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 33.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.4, implying annual growth of 0.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.8.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 40.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.5, implying annual growth of 17.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MMI  METRO MINING LIMITED

Coal

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Overnight Price: $0.14

Morgans rates MMI as Add (1) -

Bauxite production and export shipments were shut for the wet season. Production for 2019 is now projected between 3.4mt and 3.6mt, an increase of 75%. Morgans notes the risk in achieving projected sales as well as counterparty risk from contracted sales.

The move to owner/operator also carries some risk as does the scaling up of production. Add rating maintained and the target is lowered to $0.26 from $0.29.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.12
If MMI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 86% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.00.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWS  NEWS CORPORATION

Print, Radio & TV

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Overnight Price: $16.81

Credit Suisse rates NWS as Neutral (3) -

March quarter earnings were ahead of Credit Suisse estimates. This was attributable to lower costs in news and information services, although the broker would like to observe greater stability in revenue before becoming more positive on the prospects for the division.

Trends for Foxtel Now and Kayo Sport were encouraging. Credit Suisse maintains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $18.90 from $19.80.

Target price is $18.90 Current Price is $16.81 Difference: $2.09
If NWS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.11, suggesting upside of 25.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.65 cents and EPS of 57.53 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.8.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 27.65 cents and EPS of 73.69 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.7, implying annual growth of 19.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates NWS as Outperform (1) -

News Corp's quarterly result slightly beat expectations on revenue and earnings. Challenges remain evident, the broker suggests, but while the fourth quarter will also be challenging, prospects for FY20 look better.

Weighing on the result was a weaker contribution from REA Group ((REA)) but the broker sees a turnaround ahead in FY20. Target rises to $24.79 from $24.42, Outperform retained.

Target price is $24.79 Current Price is $16.81 Difference: $7.98
If NWS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.11, suggesting upside of 25.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.65 cents and EPS of 57.38 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.8.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 27.65 cents and EPS of 61.11 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.7, implying annual growth of 19.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OSH  OIL SEARCH LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $7.53

Deutsche Bank rates OSH as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Deutsche Bank downgrades to Hold from Buy, believing the positive catalysts are factored into the stock and there are growing risks around geopolitics, Alaska and strain on the balance sheet.

Target is reduced to $8.00 from $9.50.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.53 Difference: $0.47
If OSH meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.49, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.2, implying annual growth of 5.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REA  REA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate

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Overnight Price: $82.84

Credit Suisse rates REA as Neutral (3) -

March quarter results tracked below Credit Suisse expectations and higher associate losses were the key contributor. Guidance for the fourth quarter also reflected weak listings.

Management is guiding to lower revenue and expenses growth in the fourth quarter. Credit Suisse maintains a Neutral rating and lowers the target to $77.60 from $78.30.

Target price is $77.60 Current Price is $82.84 Difference: minus $5.24 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $86.29, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 123.00 cents and EPS of 232.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 242.2, implying annual growth of 26.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 124.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.2.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 143.00 cents and EPS of 261.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 279.4, implying annual growth of 15.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 143.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates REA as Outperform (1) -

REA's March Q result was very good, the broker suggests, in a weak market, highlighting the quality of the business. Revenues increased 7% and earnings 6% despite volumes declining -9%.

The broker expects conditions in the June Q to remain weak but REA is well positioned to re-accelerate earnings if volumes begin to improve in FY20. Outperform and $93.50 target retained.

Target price is $93.50 Current Price is $82.84 Difference: $10.66
If REA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $86.29, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 131.00 cents and EPS of 238.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 242.2, implying annual growth of 26.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 124.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.2.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 149.00 cents and EPS of 271.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 279.4, implying annual growth of 15.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 143.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates REA as Add (1) -

Morgans believes REA Group is defying the odds, delivering revenue and earnings growth despite the worst residential listings environment in decades.

The continued switch of residential agents to Premiere All subscription plans more than offsets the sharp fall in volumes in the March quarter, the broker observes.

Add rating maintained. Target is lifted to $91.94 from $89.57.

Target price is $91.94 Current Price is $82.84 Difference: $9.1
If REA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $86.29, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 119.00 cents and EPS of 242.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 242.2, implying annual growth of 26.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 124.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.2.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 136.00 cents and EPS of 285.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 279.4, implying annual growth of 15.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 143.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates REA as Lighten (4) -

Revenue in the March quarter was below Ord Minnett's forecasts while operating earnings and free cash flow were higher. New listings fell -9% in the quarter and another -22% in April.

Ord Minnett increases the decline expected for listings volumes in the second half and lowers depth penetration estimates based on channel checks.

The broker now forecasts FY19 revenue of $895.5m. FY20 price growth forecasts are reduced to 8% from 10%. Lighten rating maintained. Target is reduced to $71 from $74.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $71.00 Current Price is $82.84 Difference: minus $11.84 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $86.29, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 239.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 242.2, implying annual growth of 26.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 124.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.2.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 282.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 279.4, implying annual growth of 15.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 143.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SIQ  SMARTGROUP CORPORATION LTD

Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging

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Overnight Price: $8.54

Morgans rates SIQ as Hold (3) -

The company's update on novated leasing reveals volumes and yields are relatively flat. Two small acquisitions have been made, expected to contribute around $3m in operating earnings (EBITDA) in FY20.

The main upside, Morgans envisages, is further growth from acquisitions. The broker retains a Hold rating, preferring to gain more comfort in the operating outlook. Target is reduced to $9.50 from $10.20.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.54 Difference: $0.96
If SIQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.46, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.5, implying annual growth of 25.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 67.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.7, implying annual growth of 8.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SXY  SENEX ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $0.32

Credit Suisse rates SXY as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Credit Suisse believes Senex Energy is well positioned to benefit from higher domestic gas prices, as Project Atlas ramps up over the next two years. Yet, while the company has been touted as a takeover target, no bid has emerged.

This is of concern to the broker, signalling there may be technical "skeletons" at the flagship Western Surat Gas Project in particular. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target is reduced to $0.36 from $0.50.

The broker asserts the upside is offset by risks to production/cost metrics and sustainability, particularly at WSGP.

Target price is $0.36 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.04
If SXY meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.44, suggesting upside of 35.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.49 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 65.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.7.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.92 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.7, implying annual growth of 142.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

URW  UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD

REITs

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Overnight Price: $11.66

Macquarie rates URW as Underperform (5) -

Ahead of this week's investor day the broker has reviewed its underlying adjusted recurring earnings (AREPS) assumptions for UR-Westfield. The broker sees a medium term growth rate that will likely disappoint, a dividend that will grow below dividend per share and a large balance sheet.

Target rises to $10.65 from $10.62, Underperform retained.

Target price is $10.65 Current Price is $11.66 Difference: minus $1.01 (current price is over target).
If URW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.63, suggesting downside of -0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 59.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.9.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 55.20 cents and EPS of 61.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.5, implying annual growth of 2.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2.

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Broker New Target Prev Target Change
AGL AGL ENERGY Citi 20.87 22.48 -7.16%
AZJ AURIZON HOLDINGS Macquarie 4.81 4.71 2.12%
DXS DEXUS PROPERTY Deutsche Bank 11.63 11.54 0.78%
EVN EVOLUTION MINING Morgans 3.55 3.85 -7.79%
FXL FLEXIGROUP Macquarie 2.04 1.34 52.24%
MMI METRO MINING Morgans 0.26 0.29 -10.34%
NWS NEWS CORP Credit Suisse 18.90 19.80 -4.55%
Macquarie 24.79 24.42 1.52%
OSH OIL SEARCH Deutsche Bank 8.00 9.20 -13.04%
REA REA GROUP Credit Suisse 77.60 78.30 -0.89%
Morgans 91.94 89.57 2.65%
Ord Minnett 71.00 74.00 -4.05%
SIQ SMARTGROUP Morgans 9.50 10.20 -6.86%
SXY SENEX ENERGY Credit Suisse 0.36 0.50 -28.00%
URW UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD Macquarie 10.65 10.62 0.28%
Summaries
A2M A2 MILK Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $14.83
AGL AGL ENERGY Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $22.54
AZJ AURIZON HOLDINGS Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.99
BHP BHP Sell - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $36.90
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $36.90
CLW CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.55
COH COCHLEAR Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi Overnight Price $193.31
Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $193.31
Sell - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $193.31
Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $193.31
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $193.31
Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $193.31
DXS DEXUS PROPERTY Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $12.68
EVN EVOLUTION MINING Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $3.33
FXL FLEXIGROUP Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.79
GNC GRAINCORP Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $7.44
LOV LOVISA Buy - Citi Overnight Price $9.90
MMI METRO MINING Add - Morgans Overnight Price $0.14
NWS NEWS CORP Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $16.81
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $16.81
OSH OIL SEARCH Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $7.53
REA REA GROUP Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $82.84
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $82.84
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $82.84
Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $82.84
SIQ SMARTGROUP Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $8.54
SXY SENEX ENERGY Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $0.32
URW UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $11.66
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

8

3. Hold

11

4. Reduce

2

5. Sell

7

Monday 13 May 2019

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.