Australian Broker Call

Credit Suisse rates ALL as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

The stock has rallied recently and Credit Suisse downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. The broker assesses North American revenue share is an area where the company can surpass forecasts, particularly in the premium Class III installed base.

The broker emphasises that earnings are growing strongly and investors may be able to take advantage should the share price weaken. Target is $33.40.

Target price is $33.40 Current Price is $32.37 Difference: $1.03
If ALL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.03, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMI as Outperform (1) -

First quarter production was strong, with 29,300 ounces of gold produced at costs of $988/oz. Ongoing drought conditions in NSW are beginning to affect mine requirements and the company is investigating alternatives.

Costs are expected to increase as a result of having to use lower-quality water. Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $0.65 from $0.70.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: $0.19
If AMI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

BHP has received final approval to restart Samarco at end-2020. The new schedule is slower than previously assumed which may weigh on net present value, UBS notes.

The broker expects iron ore prices to fall in 2020-21 as Brazilian production begins to return as demand falls. This cap on the share price has the broker on Neutral with a $36 target.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $36.61 Difference: minus $0.61 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $37.30, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BPT as Neutral (3) -

Citi suggests strong execution in the first quarter should increase the market's confidence in the company's capital program.

Citi continues to expect the portfolio will deliver growth above the market's expectations and the drilling and related activities so far have impressed in this regard.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is raised to $2.54 from $2.48.

Target price is $2.54 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.21
If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.33, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BPT as Neutral (3) -

September quarter production revealed Western Flank oil production was up 9%. Revenue was down -13% quarter on quarter because of lower sales volumes. There is no change to FY20 guidance.

Credit Suisse trims production forecasts for the Perth Basin and BassGas because of lower customer nominations. The broker remains optimistic on the future ramp up in Western Flank oil production.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is $2.34.

Target price is $2.34 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.01
If BPT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.33, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BPT as Neutral (3) -

First quarter production was modestly softer than Macquarie anticipated. FY20 guidance has been maintained.

Drilling success in FY20 is expected to de-risk and underpin the company's five-year outlook, which is currently well above Macquarie's estimates.

The broker maintains a Neutral rating, noting that, in the longer term, upside is expected from projects such as the Waitsia expansion and Trefoil. Target is $2.20.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.33, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BPT as Hold (3) -

September quarter production was weaker than Ord Minnett expected, largely because of the part sale of the Otway assets. Cash flow generation fell to an annualised yield of 3.5% in the quarter, mainly because of the funding of the accelerated growth plan as well as the payment of the final dividend.

The broker remains positive on the outlook as the stock offers a solid balance sheet and fully-funded production growth. Hold rating and $2.55 target maintained.

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.22
If BPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.33, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CGC as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Costa Group has downgraded earnings for the fourth time in 2019 and has decided to raise equity through a rights issue. Citi lowers estimates for operating earnings by -27% for 2019 and -17% for 2020.

The broker believes the company has a challenge ahead to restore its previous reputation for earnings stability, despite the inherent risks from agriculture.

The broker expects investors will stay cautious and be more reliant on external observations of improved prices in key categories. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy and the target reduced to $2.90 from $4.20.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: minus $0.56 (current price is over target).
If CGC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.50, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CGC as Outperform (1) -

The company has signalled another deterioration in trading and growing conditions, leading it to raise $176m in new equity. Credit Suisse downgrades estimates for earnings per share by -48% for 2019 and -25% for 2020.

Late season citrus yields have dropped off because of dry weather conditions and small fruits have also achieved lower prices. The broker calculates this could have erased -$15-20m of operating earnings. Citrus yields are expected to normalise in 2020.

The broker maintains an Outperform rating and reduces the target to $3.40 from $4.40.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If CGC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.50, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CGC as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Costa Group has announced its fourth downgrade for the year, now expecting 2019 net profit of $28m and operating earnings (EBITDA) of $98m. Macquarie notes tomatoes are the only produce category to meet second half expectations.

While the company has previously highlighted the risks to the downside in blueberries, mushrooms and raspberries there is also adverse yield and size impacts in citrus and avocado.

Macquarie changes analysts and lowers the rating to Underperform from Neutral, noting that earnings visibility continues to be limited. Target is reduced to $2.51 from $3.40. Moreover, 2020 guidance seems optimistic in the broker's opinion.

Target price is $2.51 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: minus $0.95 (current price is over target).
If CGC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.50, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CL1 as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett observes the market is becoming increasingly bullish on the company's success and reviews key assumptions. The broker now includes a 2% increase in average SMSF pricing and non-SMSF fund growth of around 60% of that achieved by SMSF in the early years as well as lower cash costs.

Nevertheless, these assumptions require a belief in management and improved returns across the product portfolio. The broker elects to maintain a Hold rating at this juncture while increasing the target to $1.80 from $1.30.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If CL1 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.72, suggesting downside of -10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DCN as Underperform (5) -

First quarter results were in line with the pre-released data. Production was above the 67-77,000 ounces guidance rate for the first half.

Macquarie believes delivering on FY20 guidance and maintaining production momentum is important for de-risking the longer-term production outlook.

Underperform rating maintained. Target is $1.40.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If DCN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

The company's update has maintained a consistent message about growing store numbers and digital & product innovation, in Citi's view.

However, the metrics do not suggests any upside risk at this stage because store growth is skewed late in each half year and same-store sales growth is likely to slow. Citi expects first half same-store sales growth of 3.8%.

Neutral rating and $46.40 target maintained.

Target price is $46.40 Current Price is $50.46 Difference: minus $4.06 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $43.96, suggesting downside of -12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DMP as Hold (3) -

The company's trading update revealed a slight slowdown in same-store sales growth albeit still within the target range. Morgans notes 3-5-year targets for top-line growth of 10-15% were reiterated, leaving margins as the key swing factor in FY20.

42 stores have been opened in the year to date delivering growth in the footprint of 6.5%, below the company's target of 7-9%. Morgans maintains a Hold rating and increases the target to $47.42 from $44.17.

Target price is $47.42 Current Price is $50.46 Difference: minus $3.04 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $43.96, suggesting downside of -12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DMP as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett observes network sales growth was 10.6% in the first 17 weeks of FY20 with same-store sales growth of 4.1%.

The broker is pleased with the improved disclosure and would welcome more details, including franchisee operating earnings.

Lighten rating and $36 target maintained.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $50.46 Difference: minus $14.46 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $43.96, suggesting downside of -12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DMP as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS saw Domino's FY20 to date trading update as mixed, with network sales in line with consensus but new store growth as soft. Store growth is weighted to the second half but running short of expectation.

The stock has run up 34% in three months to a 26x forward PE which the broker considers fair risk/reward, hence a downgrade to Neutral from Buy. Target rises to $50.00 from $48.50.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $50.46 Difference: minus $0.46 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $43.96, suggesting downside of -12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DTC as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) -

Damstra provides an integrated workplace management solution combining hardware installed on client sites and a software-as-a-service solution. This is typically geared to on-site workforces such as construction, manufacturing and resources.

Morgan Stanley observes the market is large and competition is fragmented. This provide scope for reinvestment while achieving operating leverage. The broker initiates coverage with an Overweight rating and $1.60 target. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.12 Difference: $0.48
If DTC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IRE as Neutral (3) -

Iress will provide Emergency Services and State Super with automated administration superannuation services. This opens up additional revenue streams and provides further growth options in Australia, Macquarie assesses.

The main positive message the broker derives from the company's update is there is no change to profit guidance for 2019. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $13.00 from $13.25.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $12.26 Difference: $0.74
If IRE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.88, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IRE as Add (1) -

The company has won a contract with Emergency Services and State Super to provide a full back-office service. Morgans observes a shift from being a software supplier to a full service provider significantly expands the company's revenue opportunity.

Morgans revises forecasts to incorporate licence revenues from ESSS from FY21. The broker assumes 40% of licence revenues are converted into operating earnings (EBITDA).

Add rating maintained. Target rises to $15.33 from $15.00.

Target price is $15.33 Current Price is $12.26 Difference: $3.07
If IRE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.88, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LLC as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Having conducted a comprehensive analysis of the company's Barangaroo South development, Ord Minnett estimates this will underpin 30-40% earnings growth over the next 3-5 years.

Based on the company's expanded development backlog and capital base, the broker forecasts FY25 earnings will be at comparable levels to FY23-24, indicating materially higher earnings should be sustainable.

Rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate and the target lifted to $22.50 from $17.50.

Target price is $22.50 Current Price is $18.58 Difference: $3.92
If LLC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.18, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -

The company has satisfied all precedents for the sale of 60% of Wodgina to Albemarle and the transaction is expected to be completed within the next 10 business days.

This reduces the operating risk for hydroxide conversion of Wodgina. The focus is now on the ramp-up plans. Morgan Stanley expects production of 260,000t in FY20 and 475,000t in FY21. Full capacity is not expected until FY26.

Target is $18.20. Overweight rating. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $18.20 Current Price is $14.28 Difference: $3.92
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.90, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Overweight (1) -

While not expecting an upgrade to guidance with the upcoming first half result, Morgan Stanley suspects the risk is tilted to the upside. The broker lifts the target to $143 from $136 to reflect the prospect as well as higher comparable trading multiples.

Strong markets are supporting the asset management business. Moreover, the broker assesses the core business of infrastructure funds is well-placed, as this is one of the fastest-growing categories of global private markets.

The broker maintains an Overweight rating and In-Line industry view.

Target price is $143.00 Current Price is $135.94 Difference: $7.06
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $131.97, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MSV as Add (1) -

First quarter results were softer than Morgans expected. Operating assumptions are trimmed for average number of rigs, productivity and average revenue in FY20-21.

The combined impact of the changes reduces forecast operating earnings (EBITDA) by -11%. Morgans believes the stock is too cheap and can re-rate as it approaches a net cash position in FY21.

The broker retains a Speculative Buy (Add) rating. Target is reduced to 8.5c from 9.5c.

Target price is $0.09 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.025
If MSV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QBE as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett estimates the federal government's First Home Loan Deposit Scheme could move up to 7.7% of contestable policies in the lenders mortgage insurance market each year.

This is considered a modest negative for QBE Insurance, albeit not unexpected. The scheme is designed to allow first home buyers to access the housing market sooner by removing the need for mortgage insurance.

Accumulate rating and $13 target maintained. Ord Minnett notes many in the market consider lenders mortgage insurance a low-return-on-equity and risky business and would prefer QBE reduced its exposure.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $12.66 Difference: $0.34
If QBE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.84, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RFF as Buy (1) -

Rural Funds has sold chooks to buy cows. Half of the fund's poultry assets require substantial reinvestment in FY24 so poultry has been offloaded to buy cattle properties in WA which require investment in irrigation and grazing capacity.

UBS sees the benefits outweighing the dilution. Buy and $2.42 target retained.

Target price is $2.42 Current Price is $1.81 Difference: $0.61
If RFF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RRL as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi observes the company has several low-risk organic growth options and delivery is predictable. Moreover, the stock offers a 3% fully franked dividend yield, one of the sector's highest.

Following a pullback in the shares since mid August, the broker envisages value has emerged and upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Target is raised to $5.40 from $5.00.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.80 Difference: $0.6
If RRL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.15, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGM as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Operating earnings (EBIT) are expected to fall to the lowest level in 20 years in FY20, Citi observes. Market conditions remain challenging and the company has warned of an underlying earnings loss of -$20-30m in the first half and an FY20 profit of $20-50m.

The broker notes sentiment has turned more bullish in recent weeks and Turkish scrap prices have recently rebounded from the late September lows. Sentiment in US scrap markets is also improving.

Citi upgrades to Buy from Neutral on valuation grounds, cutting the target to $10.50 from $11.50.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.70 Difference: $0.8
If SGM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.37, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SGM as Outperform (1) -

Underlying first half earnings are expected to show a loss of -$20-30m. Zorba and twitch prices have fallen substantially and few quotas for the December quarter have been issued by China, suggesting more volume needs to be forced into already oversupplied markets.

Credit Suisse notes all geographies are meaningfully weaker but the UK segment has struggled with the added burden of unsold inventory being offloaded at materially lower prices.

The broker maintains an Outperform rating and reduces the target to $10.60 from $12.90.

Target price is $10.60 Current Price is $9.70 Difference: $0.9
If SGM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.37, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGM as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

The company has announced its second negative FY20 trading update, now expecting underlying earnings (EBIT) of $20-50m, with a skew to the second half. A first half loss is expected of -$20-30m followed by a second half profit of $50-70m.

Macquarie notes scrap markets have become illiquid and competitive, affecting margins. However, scrap prices have staged some sort of a recovery in recent weeks. The outlook in Turkey is less severe while US market conditions appear to be moderating.

The broker upgrades to Neutral from Underperform, assessing the likelihood of further downside is now more finely balanced. Target is reduced to $9.05 from $9.30.

Target price is $9.05 Current Price is $9.70 Difference: minus $0.65 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.37, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGM as Equal-weight (3) -

Management now expects an underlying first half earnings (EBIT) loss of -$20-30m and FY20 earnings of $20-50m. Morgan Stanley notes the selling price of ferrous scrap has collapsed and there is little ability to adjust the buy price, which has led to low, or no, margins on cargoes.

The downgrade highlights the company's leverage to global markets and Morgan Stanley envisages no reason to take a more positive stance until there are tangible signs the markets are improving.

Equal-weight rating retained. Target is reduced to $9.50 from $10.00. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $9.70 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.37, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGM as Lighten (4) -

The company has quantified a further downgrade to guidance as non-ferrous prices continue to fall. However, ferrous markets and freight costs have improved since September so Ord Minnett does not believe conditions have worsened materially over the past month.

Nevertheless, the broker is disappointed with the expected first half loss, assessing the current volatility in scrap metal markets means a recovery in the second half is uncertain.

The stock could trade below net tangible assets for as long as the operating environment is challenged and Ord Minnett maintains a Lighten rating. Target is reduced to $8.50 from $9.50.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $9.70 Difference: minus $1.2 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.37, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGM as Sell (5) -

There is no denying weak Turkish activity, the trade war and China withdrawing from the non-ferrous scrap market are placing considerable pressure on scrap prices, thus forcing the second profit warning from Sims in six weeks. But the broker believes the signs are prices are now stabilising, with Chinese quotas drying up and Turkish prices on the turn.

It's not enough to move the broker off Sell, with earnings risk still to the downside in the second half, and despite a discount to net tangible asset valuation. Target falls to $8.05 from $8.30.

Target price is $8.05 Current Price is $9.70 Difference: minus $1.65 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.37, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SXY as Neutral (3) -

Production missed Citi's estimates in the September quarter. Sales revenue was also lower than estimated. The broker observes the ramp up of CSG at Roma North is "noisy and error prone" but the value of the assets is in plateau production, not dewatering.

Hence, the broker suspects it has overestimated gas deliverability because of some operating issues related to water handling. Stronger production that is more in line with estimates is expected in following quarters. Neutral rating and $0.46 target maintained.

Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.1
If SXY meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.44, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SXY as Neutral (3) -

First quarter results were in line with expectations. Given the uncertainty associated with the ramp up of gas production the company has not provided any FY20 guidance.

Credit Suisse envisages material upside once Roma North and Project Atlas are at plateau reduction rates, assuming sustainable cost structures are achieved.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is $0.36.

Target price is $0.36 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0
If SXY meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.44, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SXY as Outperform (1) -

First quarter production and sales were slightly below expectations. Macquarie notes gas production in the quarter was up 28% because of the ramp up from Roma North.

Revenue was below forecasts, largely because of lower average realised sales prices. The broker maintains a $0.55 target and Outperform rating.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.19
If SXY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.44, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SXY as Add (1) -

The highlight of the September quarter was gas output hitting a daily rate of 11TJ/d from Roma North. Morgans assesses Roma North has supportive economics.

The broker believes the company has long held value appeal through the potential of its gas assets and this is now transitioning into a growth story. Add rating maintained. Target rises to $0.52 from $0.51.

Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.16
If SXY meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.44, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SXY as Hold (3) -

September quarter production was better than Ord Minnett expected. Subject to the commissioning of the Project Atlas processing facilities, the company will have completed its transition to a gas producer servicing the east coast market.

The company reported net production of 337,000 boe in the quarter, up 9% on the prior quarter and driven by gas and gas liquids following the ramp up at Roma North. Hold maintained. Target is $0.35.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If SXY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.44, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SZL as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett was pleased with the September quarter update. Underlying merchant sales were 22% higher than expected and increased 64% quarter on quarter.

The company has now reach 645,000 active customers as of September 30, 2019. The broker is looking ahead for further evidence of momentum building in the business and maintains a Buy rating. Target is raised to $3.40 from $3.15.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.72 Difference: $0.68
If SZL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates URW as Underweight (5) -

The trading update highlights the lack of progress on disposals, which Morgan Stanley considers a bearish signal. The company is trying to reduce its elevated financial leverage through asset sales but the appetite for shopping centres is limited, particularly at current book values.

Furthermore, Morgan Stanley is convinced a material asset re-pricing is overdue, which will lead to an underwhelming total return profile and renewed downward pressure on the shares.

Underweight rating. Industry view In-Line. Price target is EUR115.

Current Price is $11.61. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $11.04, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates VEA as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse increases refiner margin assumptions for the second half, which have more than offset weaker-than-expected retail fuel margins. This drives an 11% upgrade to 2019 earnings (EBIT) forecasts.

Neutral rating maintained. Target rises to $1.93 from $1.92.

Target price is $1.93 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If VEA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.29, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VEA as Neutral (3) -

Refining margins were higher in the September quarter because of higher regional refining margins. Retail volumes recovered although margins were soft, Macquarie observes.

The company reported a Geelong refining margin of US$8.8/bbl. Macquarie upgrades 2019 estimates for earnings per share by 36% and 2020 by 70%, mainly because of the higher refining margins.

Target is raised to $2.47 from $2.06. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $2.47 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: $0.42
If VEA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.29, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VEA as Overweight (1) -

Refining margins are starting to lift, with the company realising US$8.8/bbl in the September quarter vs Morgan Stanley's estimates of US$6/bbl.

Retail fuel volumes appear to be lifting for the alliance network, and Morgan Stanley assumes 5% volume growth from this division in 2019.

Overweight. Target  is $2.30. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: $0.25
If VEA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.29, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VEA as Accumulate (2) -

Refining margins were stronger than expected in the September quarter and Coles ((COL)) Express volumes were up 1.4%. Ord Minnett was pleased with the stabilisation of Coles Express volumes, assessing this has the basis for growth.

Estimates for earnings per share are raised by 13.6% for 2019 and the broker is more confident about the fourth quarter gross refining margin. Estimates for 2020 and 2021 have been lowered because of a more cautious view on retail fuel margin expansion.

Accumulate rating and $2.30 target maintained.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: $0.25
If VEA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.29, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VEA as Buy (1) -

Viva Energy's Sep Q update revealed refiner margins ahead of forecasts but retail margins remaining soft. This comes out as a net positive, with UBS suggesting 9% upside to consensus forecasts on better refiner margins with some offset from weak retail.

On a 13x 2020 earnings multiple the broker believes the market is under-appreciating the operating leverage from improving alliance volumes. Buy and $2.65 target retained.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: $0.6
If VEA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.29, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WAF as Outperform (1) -

The company has spent $61.1m on the development of Sanbrado in the September quarter, which remains on budget. Acceleration of the construction schedule means first gold is now expected by June 2020.

Macquarie notes timing of the M1S underground decline is important in order to bring high-grade ore to the mill soon after commissioning. Outperform rating and $0.60 target maintained.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: $0.14
If WAF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources