Australian Broker Call
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October 31, 2018
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 07:25 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| BLD - | BORAL | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
| Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform | Credit Suisse | ||
| BPT - | BEACH ENERGY | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| EVN - | EVOLUTION MINING | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
| LOV - | LOVISA | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
| MND - | MONADELPHOUS GROUP | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | Citi |
Overnight Price: $25.93
Citi rates ANZ as Buy (1) -
In an initial response to FY18 results release, Citi analysts suggest the result itself was a slight beat, while the 80c dividend was in-line with expectations.
The Net Interest Margin looks rather weak, but stronger-than-expected volume growth presents as the saviour. Costs remain well-managed, according to the analysts.
Price target remains at $30.50, while the Buy rating is unchanged also.
Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $25.93 Difference: $4.57
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.35, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 163.00 cents and EPS of 209.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 214.2, implying annual growth of -2.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 160.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 180.00 cents and EPS of 230.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 235.3, implying annual growth of 9.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 164.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates ANZ as Outperform (1) -
Given circumstances, Macquarie's initial response to today's FY18 release is that ANZ has managed to release a "credible" performance.
In addition, Macquarie analysts suggest ANZ’s superior capital surplus position continues to offer scope for ongoing buy-backs, and this should provide support for EPS growth.
Outperform rating and $30 price target have been retained.
Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $25.93 Difference: $4.07
If ANZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.35, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 209.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 214.2, implying annual growth of -2.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 160.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 232.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 235.3, implying annual growth of 9.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 164.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -
In an initial response to today's FY18 release, UBS analysts find the publication a "messy" affair, but all-in-all, in line with expectations. The analysts note the collapse in net interest margin plus exceptionally low credit losses.
Neutral rating and $28 price target have been retained.
Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $25.93 Difference: $2.07
If ANZ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.35, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 205.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 214.2, implying annual growth of -2.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 160.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 224.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 235.3, implying annual growth of 9.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 164.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.61
Citi rates BLD as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
Citi observes Boral shares have sharply underperformed the broader market, largely because of concerns over the US housing cycle and disruptions caused by wet weather.
The company remains bullish on demand conditions. Boral has also reiterated a preference to fund a possible acquisition of USG's 50% stake via asset sales and debt.
Citi believes the stock is oversold and upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Target is clipped to $7.00 from $7.50.
Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.61 Difference: $1.39
If BLD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.11, suggesting upside of 26.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 31.50 cents and EPS of 43.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.7, implying annual growth of 16.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 48.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.3, implying annual growth of 15.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates BLD as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -
A laundry list of weather events contributed to a weak performance in the September quarter yet Credit Suisse believes, weather-related delays aside, the opportunities in the Australian business remain strong.
The order book is robust and price increases are coming through in concrete and aggregates. Nevertheless, despite unchanged guidance, the company's task is becoming more difficult because of a moderation of the US housing market.
Credit Suisse upgrades to Neutral from Underperform, although maintains the view that a discount to fair value is justified because of the moderating end market outlook. Target is reduced to $5.80 from $6.40.
Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.61 Difference: $0.19
If BLD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.11, suggesting upside of 26.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.84 cents and EPS of 44.38 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.7, implying annual growth of 16.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 32.11 cents and EPS of 50.66 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.3, implying annual growth of 15.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates BLD as Buy (1) -
Although FY19 guidance is largely unchanged, Deutsche Bank expects a strong second half will be a stretch, particularly Australia where projects have been delayed and operations are already running at pace.
Yet the broker remains confident in Boral's price traction and believes earnings will recover. Beyond FY21 the US is expected to be the driver of the business. Buy rating and $7.50 target.
Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $5.61 Difference: $1.89
If BLD meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.11, suggesting upside of 26.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.7, implying annual growth of 16.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.3, implying annual growth of 15.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates BLD as Outperform (1) -
The company reported that trading has been affected by weather and project delays but does not deviate from prior FY19 guidance. Macquarie suspects the market is ignoring the fact that 50% of revenue is not exposed to either the US or Australian housing markets, as the stock has de-rated significantly.
While the outlook remains clouded, the broker considers the valuation attractive and retains an Outperform rating. Target is reduced to $7.15 from $8.05 and FY19 and FY20 estimates for earnings per share are reduced by -4% and -2.5% respectively.
Target price is $7.15 Current Price is $5.61 Difference: $1.54
If BLD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.11, suggesting upside of 26.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.7, implying annual growth of 16.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 53.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.3, implying annual growth of 15.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates BLD as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley notes the company's updated outlook represents a modest softening. Nevertheless, this minor downgrade sits at odds with the significant de-rating the stock has experienced.
Hence, the broker considers valuation attractive and, while acknowledging the FY19 outlook carries some risk, believes this is well represented in the share price.
Overweight rating reiterated. Target is $8.00 and Industry view is Cautious.
Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $5.61 Difference: $2.39
If BLD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.11, suggesting upside of 26.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.7, implying annual growth of 16.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.3, implying annual growth of 15.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates BLD as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett lowers earnings estimates, given Boral has slightly moderated FY19 guidance, although management expects a strong second half skew will materialise.
Operating earnings (EBITDA) excluding property is expected to grow in the high single digits in FY19 versus previous guidance of high single digits "or more".
Ord Minnett maintains an Accumulate rating and reduces the target to $7.40 from $7.80.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $5.61 Difference: $1.79
If BLD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.11, suggesting upside of 26.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.7, implying annual growth of 16.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.3, implying annual growth of 15.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates BLD as Neutral (3) -
FY19 guidance is largely unchanged but adverse weather has put the company behind in the first quarter. As a result a strong skew to the second half is expected and both the Australian and US businesses will need to catch up.
UBS suggests the stock, having underperformed in recent weeks as the market tried to pre-empt and earnings downgrade, should be supported by the AGM update.
The company has not changed either its tone or view regarding the outlook for demand in Australia or the US. Neutral rating maintained. Target is $6.94.
Target price is $6.94 Current Price is $5.61 Difference: $1.33
If BLD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.11, suggesting upside of 26.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.7, implying annual growth of 16.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 49.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.3, implying annual growth of 15.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.76
Ord Minnett rates BPT as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -
September quarter production growth and higher commodity prices generated strong cash flow and helped reduce debt in the September quarter. Ord Minnett calculates the company is trading on an annualised free cash flow yield of 17%.
FY19 guidance is reaffirmed, signalling the business is trending towards the upper end of the guidance range for production and earnings. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold. Target is steady at $2.10.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: $0.34
If BPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.76, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.3, implying annual growth of 12.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.9. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.6, implying annual growth of 5.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $28.26
Ord Minnett rates CTX as Buy (1) -
Midway through investor presentations, Ord Minnett lowers 2018 estimates for earnings per share by -5%. The broker highlights the fuels and infrastructure division as a strong business with growth potential.
September quarter refining margins came in at US$11.53/bbl, higher than the June quarter but down on the prior corresponding quarter.
Ord Minnett maintains a Buy rating and lowers the target to $33.50 from $35.00.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $33.50 Current Price is $28.26 Difference: $5.24
If CTX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.49, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 104.00 cents and EPS of 242.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 225.2, implying annual growth of -5.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 110.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 132.00 cents and EPS of 220.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 230.8, implying annual growth of 2.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 123.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CTX as Buy (1) -
UBS notes the first day of the company's investor briefing had a focus on capital allocation and fuel & infrastructure operations. Retail earnings targets and opportunities offshore were reiterated.
Reflecting the strengthening capital position, Caltex lifted its target pay-out ratio to 50-70% for 2019. UBS maintains a Buy rating and trims the target to $35.90 from $36.00.
Target price is $35.90 Current Price is $28.26 Difference: $7.64
If CTX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.49, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 112.00 cents and EPS of 224.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 225.2, implying annual growth of -5.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 110.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 146.00 cents and EPS of 243.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 230.8, implying annual growth of 2.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 123.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $6.36
Morgan Stanley rates ELO as Overweight (1) -
Cash receipts of $10.3m in the first quarter represented growth of over 91% on the prior corresponding quarter. Morgan Stanley observes a strong pipeline of acquisition opportunities with a mix of complementary technology and new customers.
2019 is expected to be another year of investment in capabilities, sales and marketing. Overweight rating, In-Line industry view and target is $8.00.
Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $6.36 Difference: $1.64
If ELO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.98
Morgans rates EVN as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -
Morgans observes gold production in the September quarter, if annualised, would be at the top of the projected range for the year. At the flagship Cowal mine work continued on the tails leach project with some success with high-grade exploration reported.
Meanwhile, treatment of stockpiles will continue at Mt Rawdon with a focus on the stage 4 pit cutback. The board has also approved the underground mine development at Mt Carlton.
Rating is downgraded to Hold from Add, given the rise in the share price. Morgans envisages the primary risk to valuation comes from the gold price, with the copper price less significant. Target is raised to $3.28 from $3.17.
Target price is $3.28 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $0.3
If EVN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.03, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.7, implying annual growth of -12.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.1, implying annual growth of 39.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.04
Ord Minnett rates IGO as Accumulate (2) -
September quarter copper production was 11% above Ord Minnett forecasts albeit lower than the June quarter. Tropicana gold production was 9% ahead of the prior quarter and 2% ahead of estimates.
Ord Minnett notes the business is now net cash and the Nova downstream and Tropicana underground studies are expected to be completed by the end of the year.
Accumulate rating maintained. Target is trimmed to $5.10 from $5.20.
Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.04 Difference: $1.06
If IGO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.58, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.8, implying annual growth of 142.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.4, implying annual growth of 44.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates IGO as Neutral (3) -
While the company endured a soft start to FY19 UBS assesses valuation is looking more attractive, although maintains a Neutral rating. September quarter production at Nova was below forecasts while costs were higher.
The broker would like evidence of a consistent operating performance at Nova and/or exploration success in the Fraser Range. The broker makes a downgrade to near-term price forecasts, cutting FY19-20 nickel price assumptions by -6%. Target lowered to $4.25 from $4.70.
Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $4.04 Difference: $0.21
If IGO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.58, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.8, implying annual growth of 142.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.4, implying annual growth of 44.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.67
Citi rates LOV as Buy (1) -
Citi suspects the trading update at the AGM may not be the end of bad news, as even more demanding comparables are cycled over the second quarter. Year-to-date sales have declined -0.9% with Australia experiencing more weakness versus other regions.
Nevertheless, Lovisa is the most profitable retailer under the broker's coverage, with strong balance sheet. Citi expects operating earnings to increase by 77% or more by FY21, supported by the roll-out of international stores.
Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $10.75 from $12.30.
Target price is $10.75 Current Price is $7.67 Difference: $3.08
If LOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.95, suggesting upside of 29.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 34.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.2, implying annual growth of 8.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 42.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.9, implying annual growth of 18.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates LOV as Underweight (5) -
Sales growth has decelerated over the year to date, Morgan Stanley observes. The company has highlighted a weak consumer environment in Australia, although did not directly attribute this to its performance.
Rather, comparable sales are expected to be challenging as the company cycles four years of strong growth. Morgan Stanley suggests the stock has been trading at a premium and it is difficult to envisage many catalysts for a re-rating.
Underweight. Target is $9.50. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $7.67 Difference: $1.83
If LOV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.95, suggesting upside of 29.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 24.80 cents and EPS of 37.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.2, implying annual growth of 8.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 43.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.9, implying annual growth of 18.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates LOV as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -
The trading update revealed a softer start to FY19 with like-for-like sales down -0.9%. Morgans suggests the volatility and weakness is likely to persist over the balance of the year but believes the rolling out of stores has potential as a positive driver of the business.
The broker believes 2019 will be the year the company takes a more assertive stance on the pilot market footprint. Rating is upgraded to Add from Hold.
The broker remains unconcerned about the short-term sales blip and emphasises the global growth potential and growing cash position. Target is reduced to $8.06 from $10.93.
Target price is $8.06 Current Price is $7.67 Difference: $0.39
If LOV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.95, suggesting upside of 29.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.2, implying annual growth of 8.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.9, implying annual growth of 18.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MND MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED
Mining Sector Contracting
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Overnight Price: $14.39
Citi rates MND as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -
Citi continues to envisage downside risk to FY19 earnings but upgrades to Neutral from Sell because of the improving outlook for core markets. Target is raised to $13.95 from $12.70.
The broker expects investors will look through the decline in FY19, anticipating earnings growth in FY20 and beyond. The maintenance division is expected to benefit from increased demand as LNG projects ramp up production.
The broker also believes Monadelphous will be able to capitalise on an expected increase in iron ore construction work in Western Australia, yet envisages risk to FY19 given any potential iron ore contract will contribute materially only in FY20, and competition remains in tense.
Target price is $13.95 Current Price is $14.39 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $14.37, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 61.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.8, implying annual growth of -12.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 67.50 cents and EPS of 80.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.6, implying annual growth of 23.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.33
Citi rates ORE as Buy (1) -
September quarter production was affected by a shutdown and seasonally lower evaporation rates. This was largely offset by an increase in realised prices.
Ciiti maintains a Buy rating and pushes its estimates for the Olaroz stage 2 project commissioning to the second half of FY20. This drives estimates for FY20 and FY21 earnings down by -19% and -26% respectively. Target is reduced to $6.00 from $6.50.
Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $2.67
If ORE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 80% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.58, suggesting upside of 67.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.5, implying annual growth of 1647.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of 2.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates ORE as Outperform (1) -
Production at Olaroz was soft in the September quarter but well flagged because of plant maintenance and seasonally lower evaporation rates.
Increased pond intensity in stage 2 and process upgrades should support higher brine availability and production in the future, Credit Suisse notes, although the benefits will take time to realise.
The broker reiterates an Outperform rating and reduces the target to $5.30 from $5.50.
Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $1.97
If ORE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.58, suggesting upside of 67.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.07 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.5, implying annual growth of 1647.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.22 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of 2.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates ORE as Buy (1) -
September quarter results were softer than expected because of shutdowns and lower evaporation rates over the winter. Orocobre does not expect the December half year pricing to be materially less than the June half year.
Buy rating maintained. Target is $6.50.
Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $3.17
If ORE meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 95% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.58, suggesting upside of 67.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.5, implying annual growth of 1647.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of 2.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates ORE as Equal-weight (3) -
The company has flagged a delay to commissioning for stage 2 at Olaroz, to the second half of 2020. Orocobre expects prices to fall in the December quarter, and for the first half of FY19 to be similar to the prior half.
The company's production in the September quarter was 7% above the prior corresponding quarter but lower than the run rate required to achieve the broker's first half forecasts.
Equal-weight. In-Line industry view and $4.20 target maintained.
Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $0.87
If ORE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.58, suggesting upside of 67.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.5, implying annual growth of 1647.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of minus 1.31 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of 2.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates ORE as Buy (1) -
Production was down -36% in the September quarter and sales down -34%, because of plant maintenance and seasonally low evaporation rates. Production guidance is unchanged with expectations it will be higher than FY18.
The December quarter is also expected to be materially higher. Buy maintained. Target is reduced to $5.15 from $5.50.
Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $1.82
If ORE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.58, suggesting upside of 67.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.5, implying annual growth of 1647.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of 2.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
QUB QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics
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Overnight Price: $2.45
UBS rates QUB as Neutral (3) -
While the annual monitoring of stevedoring from the ACCC presents a poor picture for industry returns, UBS believes it is incrementally positive for Qube's stake in Patrick, which accounts for around 30% of group profit.
The competition regulator estimates the industry generated $75m in incremental revenue from infrastructure charges in FY18, of which Patrick generated around $30m. The broker notes, more importantly, the ACCC appears to be taking a hands-off approach to price increases, noting it is not unreasonable for stevedores to recover costs amid declining profitability, and the charges did not appear to substantially lessen competition.
Neutral rating and $2.80 target maintained.
Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.45 Difference: $0.35
If QUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.69, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 8.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of 61.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 10.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.9, implying annual growth of 17.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
RCR RCR TOMLINSON LIMITED
Mining Sector Contracting
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Overnight Price: $0.91
Ord Minnett rates RCR as Hold (3) -
Ord Minnett found both positives and negatives ensuing from the AGM update. The company is facing delays and productivity issues in the solar business but this should be offset by cost savings, with opportunities in rail and transport.
Overall, the broker believes the risks are matched by an undemanding valuation and maintains a Hold rating. Target is reduced to $0.96 from $1.38, mainly because of the adoption of a slightly different methodology.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $0.96 Current Price is $0.91 Difference: $0.05
If RCR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.14, suggesting upside of 25.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.8, implying annual growth of 8.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $6.65
UBS rates SFR as Sell (5) -
The main concern for UBS is mine life, suspecting the company could engage in further M&A to extend mine life. Production in the September quarter was 11% above the broker's estimates.
Development rates on the high-grade Monty project have been slower than anticipated and substantial ore is not expected until late in FY19.
The broker maintains a Sell rating as the share price is trading close to valuation. Target is reduced to $6.50 from $7.20.
Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.65 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.44, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.8, implying annual growth of -6.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 144.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 122.9, implying annual growth of 68.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.41
Macquarie rates SXY as Outperform (1) -
The company has announced financial close for both the Western Surat and Project Atlas. Now that guidance and capital expenditure have been provided, Macquarie welcomes the increased certainty around cash flow in coming years.
At Project Atlas better flow rates for wells will be the main catalyst. In the short term, however, the broker envisages less upside at Western Surat because of higher expenditure. Outperform and 55c target retained.
Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.14
If SXY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.50, suggesting upside of 20.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.6. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.4, implying annual growth of 112.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
TLS TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED
Telecommunication
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Overnight Price: $3.08
Citi rates TLS as Sell (5) -
Following an analysis of operating expenditure, Citi downgrades FY20-21 estimates for operating earnings (EBITDA) by -8-9%. The main issue for the broker is that rising sales costs will more than offset the productivity gains.
While maintaining a $0.16 dividend forecast for FY19, Citi considers this unsustainable and expects a further reduction to $0.12 per share in FY20.
Sell rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.50 from $2.65.
Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $3.08 Difference: minus $0.58 (current price is over target).
If TLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.11, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 10.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of -41.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 5.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.1, implying annual growth of -3.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.25
Citi rates WSA as Buy (1) -
September quarter production was in line but sales fell short of Citi's estimates. The company has also announced a decision to mine Odysseus.
The broker estimates revenue will be lower in FY19 because of a shortfall of sales compared to output, and moving Odysseus production out by 12 months reduces revenue forecasts for FY21.
Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $3.00 from $3.50.
Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $0.75
If WSA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.09, suggesting upside of 37.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 26.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of 261.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 30.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.4, implying annual growth of 49.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates WSA as Outperform (1) -
The company has decided to mine Odysseus after the definitive feasibility study revealed a larger, long-life project, albeit with higher capital expenditure and lower operating expenditure. First production is expected in the December quarter of 2022.
September quarter production and costs were in line with expectations. Credit Suisse maintains an Outperform rating and $3 target.
Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $0.75
If WSA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.09, suggesting upside of 37.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 13.42 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of 261.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 23.96 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.4, implying annual growth of 49.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates WSA as Outperform (1) -
September quarter production was in line with Macquarie's forecasts. The company has recently released the results of the Odysseus definitive feasibility study and the broker considers the economics are robust, which underpin nickel production for the next decade.
The production profile is now stable until FY23. The stock remains the broker's preferred ASX nickel exposure. Outperform rating and $3.30 target maintained.
Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $1.05
If WSA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.09, suggesting upside of 37.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of 261.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.4, implying annual growth of 49.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates WSA as Buy (1) -
Nickel production in the September quarter was flat although slightly ahead of expectations. The highlight is a decision to mine Odysseus and the main positive for the broker is the relatively light capital expenditure required over the next three years.
Ord Minnett is convinced the global nickel market will require more high-grade sulphide supply into the next decade, key to the fortunes of the Odysseus project. Speculative Buy retained. Target is $3.50.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $1.25
If WSA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.09, suggesting upside of 37.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of 261.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.4, implying annual growth of 49.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates WSA as Neutral (3) -
The September quarter will was consistent and production slightly ahead of UBS estimates. The broker believes the decline in spot nickel prices, amid concerns about global growth, is a risk to earnings and cash flow forecasts.
The broker expects the nickel price will appreciate strongly, towards US$8/lb in 2021. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.45 from $2.65.
Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $0.2
If WSA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.09, suggesting upside of 37.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of 261.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.4, implying annual growth of 49.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
| Company | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
| BLD | BORAL | Citi | 7.00 | 7.50 | -6.67% |
| Credit Suisse | 5.80 | 6.40 | -9.38% | ||
| Deutsche Bank | 7.50 | 8.10 | -7.41% | ||
| Macquarie | 7.15 | 8.05 | -11.18% | ||
| Ord Minnett | 7.40 | 7.80 | -5.13% | ||
| CTX | CALTEX AUSTRALIA | Ord Minnett | 33.50 | 35.00 | -4.29% |
| UBS | 35.90 | 36.00 | -0.28% | ||
| EVN | EVOLUTION MINING | Morgans | 3.28 | 3.17 | 3.47% |
| IGO | INDEPENDENCE GROUP | Ord Minnett | 5.10 | 5.20 | -1.92% |
| UBS | 4.25 | 4.70 | -9.57% | ||
| LOV | LOVISA | Citi | 10.75 | 12.30 | -12.60% |
| Morgans | 8.06 | 10.93 | -26.26% | ||
| MND | MONADELPHOUS GROUP | Citi | 13.95 | 12.70 | 9.84% |
| ORE | OROCOBRE | Citi | 6.00 | 6.50 | -7.69% |
| Credit Suisse | 5.30 | 5.50 | -3.64% | ||
| Deutsche Bank | 6.50 | 6.90 | -5.80% | ||
| UBS | 5.15 | 5.50 | -6.36% | ||
| RCR | RCR TOMLINSON | Ord Minnett | 0.96 | 1.38 | -30.43% |
| SFR | SANDFIRE | UBS | 6.50 | 7.20 | -9.72% |
| TLS | TELSTRA CORP | Citi | 2.50 | 2.65 | -5.66% |
| WSA | WESTERN AREAS | Citi | 3.00 | 3.50 | -14.29% |
| UBS | 2.45 | 2.65 | -7.55% |
Summaries
| ANZ | ANZ BANKING GROUP | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $25.93 |
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $25.93 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $25.93 | ||
| BLD | BORAL | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $5.61 |
| Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $5.61 | ||
| Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $5.61 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $5.61 | ||
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $5.61 | ||
| Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $5.61 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $5.61 | ||
| BPT | BEACH ENERGY | Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $1.76 |
| CTX | CALTEX AUSTRALIA | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $28.26 |
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $28.26 | ||
| ELO | ELMO SOFTWARE | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $6.36 |
| EVN | EVOLUTION MINING | Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.98 |
| IGO | INDEPENDENCE GROUP | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.04 |
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $4.04 | ||
| LOV | LOVISA | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $7.67 |
| Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $7.67 | ||
| Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $7.67 | ||
| MND | MONADELPHOUS GROUP | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $14.39 |
| ORE | OROCOBRE | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $3.33 |
| Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.33 | ||
| Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $3.33 | ||
| Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.33 | ||
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $3.33 | ||
| QUB | QUBE HOLDINGS | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $2.45 |
| RCR | RCR TOMLINSON | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $0.91 |
| SFR | SANDFIRE | Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $6.65 |
| SXY | SENEX ENERGY | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.41 |
| TLS | TELSTRA CORP | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $3.08 |
| WSA | WESTERN AREAS | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $2.25 |
| Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.25 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.25 | ||
| Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.25 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $2.25 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 21 |
| 2. Accumulate | 2 |
| 3. Hold | 10 |
| 5. Sell | 3 |
Wednesday 31 October 2018
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