Australian Broker Call

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June 13, 2018

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

THIS REPORT WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY

Last Updated: 08:21 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
CIP - CENTURIA INDUSTRIAL REIT Downgrade to Hold from Add Morgans
CTX - CALTEX AUSTRALIA Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Macquarie
Upgrade to Buy from Hold Ord Minnett
MTS - METCASH Upgrade to Buy from Neutral UBS
RIO - RIO TINTO Downgrade to Hold from Buy Deutsche Bank
APA  APA GROUP

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $10.00

Ord Minnett rates APA as Buy (1) -

A consortium led by Hong Kong-based CK Infrastructure has bid $11 a share for APA group. Should a deal be announced Ord Minnett envisages the likelihood of a competing bid to be low.

The greatest hurdle may be approval from the Foreign Investment Review Board. The company has indicated that CK Infrastructure has already had discussions with FIRB and ACCC.

Ord Minnett maintains a Buy rating and $9.55 target pending further review.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $9.55 Current Price is $10.00 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If APA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.74, suggesting downside of -12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.7, implying annual growth of 20.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of 3.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASL  AUSDRILL LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $1.90

Deutsche Bank rates ASL as Buy (1) -

The company has revised its contracts and, although related to changing customer circumstances rather than performance, Deutsche Bank finds this disappointing.

While the changes are relatively minor in the context of the significant activity across the company's business, they will have material earnings impact over the short term.

The changes do not, however, alter the investment case, the broker asserts, as this is supported by a strong recovery in Australia and large tender pipeline in Africa. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.70 from $3.20.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $1.90 Difference: $0.8
If ASL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AZJ  AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $4.15

Credit Suisse rates AZJ as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse believes a solution is required to fix the broken regulatory structure in Queensland that has delivered poor outcomes for all involved. The broker notes in the last four-year regulatory period the Queensland Competition Authority did not reach a final regulatory decision until three years into the period.

Credit Suisse suggests, in the wake of the Queensland budget, that for the first time there appears to be a political focus on fixing the regulatory structure and this may provide comfort for investors in the value of Aurizon's network. Outperform rating and $4.85 target reiterated.

Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $4.15 Difference: $0.7
If AZJ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.46, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.60 cents and EPS of 28.62 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 30.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.4, implying annual growth of -1.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BLD  BORAL LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $6.45

Deutsche Bank rates BLD as Buy (1) -

Knauf has entered into an agreement to acquire USG, an acquisition Deutsche Bank expects to be approved, given Berkshire Hathaway has publicly supported the deal. Boral has a JV with USG covering Australian and Asian plasterboard/ceilings operations.

Boral has significant change of control rights under the agreement and, although the JV is well run, Deutsche Bank believes this announcement by Knauf represents a great opportunity, although is wary that key end markets are close to cyclical peaks.

Buy rating retained. Price target is $7.65.

Target price is $7.65 Current Price is $6.45 Difference: $1.2
If BLD meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.61, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.2, implying annual growth of 41.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.3, implying annual growth of 14.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates BLD as Outperform (1) -

USG has accepted an offer from Knauf, which sets off the pre-emptive rights that Boral holds in relation to the JV with USG.

Macquarie envisages Boral either buying the remainder of the JV or seeking a deal to consolidate the broader plasterboard interest in the region into the JV and maintain Knauf as a partner.

Either way, Macquarie considers the development is potentially positive for Boral. Outperform rating and $8.45 target maintained.

Target price is $8.45 Current Price is $6.45 Difference: $2
If BLD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.61, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.50 cents and EPS of 41.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.2, implying annual growth of 41.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 49.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.3, implying annual growth of 14.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIP  CENTURIA INDUSTRIAL REIT

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Overnight Price: $2.59

Morgans rates CIP as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

The REIT has announced new leasing deals, revaluations and an asset sale. Centuria Industrial will sell its Preston asset for $30.1m with proceeds used to reduce debt.

Morgans adjusts forecasts to allow for the news and assumes no further asset sales. Despite some near-term leasing challenges the broker backs management's ability to deliver improved occupancy over the medium term.

Target rises to $2.63 from $2.59. Following appreciation in the security the broker downgrades to Hold from Add.

Target price is $2.63 Current Price is $2.59 Difference: $0.04
If CIP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.40 cents and EPS of 19.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.15.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.40 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.63.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CTX  CALTEX AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $30.57

Macquarie rates CTX as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Caltex has provided first half profit guidance that is in line with Macquarie's expectations. The broker observes the core business is defensive and earnings growth is expected. Future drivers are the asset review and convenience strategy.

The broker suggests meaningful infrastructure divestments following the asset review are unlikely and acknowledges the convenience roll-out has its risks.

Nevertheless, given the share price has de-rated the valuation upside is improved. Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. The broker increases the target to $37.00 from $36.60.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $30.57 Difference: $6.43
If CTX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.49, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 120.60 cents and EPS of 240.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 118.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 125.10 cents and EPS of 249.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 245.1, implying annual growth of 3.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 122.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates CTX as Underweight (5) -

The company has provided first half profit guidance that is ahead of expectations. Morgan Stanley finds the new reporting structure difficult to analyse at this point as there is no previous data to compare. Refining appears slightly better than expected.

Underweight rating. Target is $26. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $30.57 Difference: minus $4.57 (current price is over target).
If CTX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $36.49, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 104.00 cents and EPS of 208.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 118.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 97.00 cents and EPS of 194.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 245.1, implying annual growth of 3.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 122.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates CTX as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

The company's net profit guidance for the first half of $295-315m is ahead of Ord Minnett's forecasts, as refining has fallen less than expected. Toyota Fleet Management and Ampol Singapore are boosting underlying supply & marketing earnings as well.

The broker upgrades to Buy from Hold and raises the target to $35 from $34 because of earnings revisions, confidence in refiner margins and the positive changes emerging in the asset portfolio.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $30.57 Difference: $4.43
If CTX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.49, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 119.00 cents and EPS of 239.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 118.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 139.00 cents and EPS of 253.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 245.1, implying annual growth of 3.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 122.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates CTX as Buy (1) -

The company's first half net profit guidance range of $295-315m is ahead of UBS estimates at the mid point. The broker's FY18-21 estimates for earnings per share rise 1-2% to reflect higher refining earnings and guidance.

UBS maintains a Buy rating and raises the target to $39.20 from $38.70.

Target price is $39.20 Current Price is $30.57 Difference: $8.63
If CTX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.49, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 115.00 cents and EPS of 230.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 118.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 123.00 cents and EPS of 245.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 245.1, implying annual growth of 3.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 122.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CWN  CROWN RESORTS LIMITED

Gaming

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Overnight Price: $13.38

Macquarie rates CWN as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has a Neutral rating and $14.30 target for Crown.

Target price is $14.30 Current Price is $13.38 Difference: $0.92
If CWN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.31, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 52.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.9, implying annual growth of -78.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 61.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.3, implying annual growth of 11.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CYB  CYBG PLC

Banks

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Overnight Price: $5.37

Credit Suisse rates CYB as Outperform (1) -

The company has announced a revised bid to acquire Virgin Money, offering 1.2125 shares per Virgin Money share.

While mindful of the challenges of integration, Credit Suisse suggests the nature of the transaction could support a significantly accretive deal. Outperform. Target is $6.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.37 Difference: $0.63
If CYB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.93, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 3.46 cents and EPS of 44.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.74 cents and EPS of 55.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.8, implying annual growth of 10.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

This company reports in GBP. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GMG  GOODMAN GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $9.44

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Citi examines the impact on group earnings under a bull case scenario where assets under management double to $60bn by FY23. To hit this mark the implied growth rate is 12.5% per annum versus 13.6% over the past five years.

The broker suggests the stock is trading at a discount to global peers despite its stronger earnings growth and the earnings mix transitioning to a more stable investment and management stream.

Buy rating reiterated. Target is $9.66.

Target price is $9.66 Current Price is $9.44 Difference: $0.22
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.63, suggesting downside of -8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 46.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.6, implying annual growth of 9.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 30.20 cents and EPS of 50.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.6, implying annual growth of 4.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KLL  KALIUM LAKES LIMITED

Mining

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Overnight Price: $0.44

Macquarie rates KLL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes the company is rapidly advancing Beyondie towards a final investment decision and planning early development works during the September quarter.

The broker expects near term catalysts, such as binding offtake agreements and the outcome of the bankable feasibility study, to provide significant de-risking events. Outperform rating and $0.60 target maintained.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.16
If KLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.21.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 15.71.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN  MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $16.40

Deutsche Bank rates MIN as Hold (3) -

The scope for the Wodgina project has changed and  Ausdrill ((ASL)) now expects the value of the contract to be half the previously announced value. Deutsche Bank suggests this points to either a lower strip ratio, lower production or Mineral Resources taking on some of the responsibilities.

The broker believes, given the low value of the DSO product, softening lithium prices and current shipping performance that this represents a pullback from DSO operations.

Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $18 from $19.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $16.40 Difference: $1.6
If MIN meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.03, suggesting upside of 28.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 163.3, implying annual growth of 51.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 233.0, implying annual growth of 42.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 103.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -

Ausdrill ((ASL)) has announced a halving of the scope of contract at Wodgina over the next three years. In addition, Morgan Stanley notes port data indicates a slowing of DSO shipments in May versus April.

The broker suggests the two items could indicate that DSO shipments are likely to cease earlier than previously anticipated.

Target is $23.60. Overweight retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $23.60 Current Price is $16.40 Difference: $7.2
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.03, suggesting upside of 28.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 59.20 cents and EPS of 143.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 163.3, implying annual growth of 51.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 116.00 cents and EPS of 241.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 233.0, implying annual growth of 42.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 103.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MTS  METCASH LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $2.79

Morgan Stanley rates MTS as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects the new CEO, Jeff Adams, to announce his strategic agenda at the FY18 results on June 25. The broker envisages substantial upside potential, expecting capital management will be unveiled.

The broker expects the CEO will underpin investor confidence by indicating the loss of the Drakes contract is contained and reiterate a healthy outlook for the liquor and hardware businesses.

Overweight rating maintained. Cautious sector view. Target is $3.90.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $1.11
If MTS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.14, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.70 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.5, implying annual growth of -13.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.50 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.9, implying annual growth of 47.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates MTS as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS upgrades to Buy from Neutral believing the company's FY19 earnings multiple for the food & grocery division is pricing in further contract losses. The broker lifts FY19-21 forecasts by 1% to reflect stronger hardware earnings.

The main catalysts in the near term will be capital management at the FY18 result, in the broker's opinion. The main risk is new price investment initiatives, although UBS considers this unlikely. Target is raised to $3.00 from $2.95.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $0.21
If MTS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.14, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 21.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.5, implying annual growth of -13.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 22.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.9, implying annual growth of 47.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OGC  OCEANAGOLD CORPORATION

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $3.41

Credit Suisse rates OGC as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse observes the exploration update at Waihi endorses a mine life out to 2030. The broker's valuation assumes just three years of life rather than the 2030 projection.

Drilling has intersected high-grade mineralisation along both the Martha and Empire veins beneath the Martha pit to support this mining concept to 2030.

The broker has retained an Outperform rating and $3.80 target.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.41 Difference: $0.39
If OGC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.58, suggesting upside of 34.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 2.58 cents and EPS of 30.58 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 2.58 cents and EPS of 19.89 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.6, implying annual growth of 20.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates OGC as Outperform (1) -

Thick high-grade gold-silver mineralisation has been documented at the Martha project in New Zealand. Veins with high-grade mineralisation have been documented outside of the targeted mining shapes and new veins identified.

This increases confidence in mine life expansion at Waihi beyond Macquarie's modelling, with each additional year adding CAD0.05 to valuation.

Outperform and $6.00 target reiterated.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $3.41 Difference: $2.59
If OGC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.58, suggesting upside of 34.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 2.58 cents and EPS of 27.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 10.31 cents and EPS of 45.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.6, implying annual growth of 20.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RCR  RCR TOMLINSON LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $2.91

Ord Minnett rates RCR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett believes the most likely reason for the weakness in the share price in recent weeks is that the run rate of contracts being awarded is below what is required to achieve FY19 forecasts.

The broker refrains from making any changes to estimates ahead of the Auckland City rail link announcement, expected later this month or in July, and suggests the current stock situation provides an attractive risk/reward for that potential catalyst.

Buy rating maintained. Target is $5.19.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $5.19 Current Price is $2.91 Difference: $2.28
If RCR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 78% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.71, suggesting upside of 61.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.3, implying annual growth of 32.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.8, implying annual growth of 43.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO  RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $84.11

Deutsche Bank rates RIO as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

While believing some of the bear scenarios regarding rapidly rising scrap consumption are premature, Deutsche Bank expects Chinese demand for iron ore to peak around 2020 and limit the growth potential for the major producers. The broker reduces assumptions for Rio Tinto's iron ore production from 2021.

The stock has re-rated versus its peers following a successful strategy of asset sales, de-leveraging and high cash returns. Following this significant rebound the broker downgrades to Hold from Buy. Target is steady at $89.

Target price is $89.00 Current Price is $84.11 Difference: $4.89
If RIO meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $88.06, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 718.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 407.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 626.0, implying annual growth of -12.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 372.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SEH  SINO GAS & ENERGY HOLDINGS LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $0.23

Citi rates SEH as Buy (1) -

The company has announced modifications to its product sharing contract with its JV partner, CUCBM. Modifications include a reduction in participating interest in the Linxing field to 49% from 70% and relinquishing a portion of exploration in return for an 8-year field extension.

Citi observes the modifications satisfy the hurdle in takeover conditions and progress Lone Star's bid towards completion. Buy/High Risk and $0.27 target maintained.

Target price is $0.27 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.04
If SEH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 115.00.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 115.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFR  SANDFIRE RESOURCES NL

Copper

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Overnight Price: $9.61

UBS rates SFR as Sell (5) -

The company has announced the acquisition of the Springfield JV and now controls 100% of Monty and the surrounding exploration potential. UBS observes the share price has performed well and the market is likely focused on the copper exposure, strong free cash flow and the strength in the balance sheet.

The company is also benefiting from a reduction in mine development and the imminent start of Monty production. While all these aspects are positive, the broker remains concerned about the valuation and believes Sandfire may engage in further M&A activity to extend mine life. Sell rating maintained. Target is raised to $7.40 from $6.77.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $9.61 Difference: minus $2.21 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.40, suggesting downside of -23.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 78.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.2, implying annual growth of 61.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 95.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.3, implying annual growth of 24.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGR  THE STAR ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED

Gaming

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Overnight Price: $4.78

Macquarie rates SGR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes Gold Coast slot machine revenue has returned to growth in May following a soft period in April, likely affected by the Commonwealth Games.

Macquarie is monitoring local market growth closely in this region as the company's Gold Coast property expansion was completed in late March.

The broker continues to forecasts 4.8% revenue growth in slot machines across the company's Queensland casinos. Outperform rating and $6.25 target maintained.

Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $4.78 Difference: $1.47
If SGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.07, suggesting upside of 26.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.50 cents and EPS of 29.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.1, implying annual growth of -15.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 30.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.2, implying annual growth of 11.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUN  SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $13.84

Macquarie rates SUN as Underperform (5) -

The ACCC has updated on its long-standing review of insurance in northern Australia. With the Royal Commission covering the same issues, Macquarie believes the ACCC's findings could be accelerated and this could ultimately be a negative for margins in the sector.

The initial findings suggest customers do not believe they are being compensated for disaster mitigation efforts and there is concern that insurers have inadequate claims handling processes.

Underperform rating maintained and target raised to $13.35 from $13.15.

Target price is $13.35 Current Price is $13.84 Difference: minus $0.49 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.28, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 74.00 cents and EPS of 79.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.4, implying annual growth of -5.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 77.00 cents and EPS of 97.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.8, implying annual growth of 23.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TAH  TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Gaming

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Overnight Price: $4.61

Deutsche Bank rates TAH as Buy (1) -

Deutsche Bank considers the Queensland government's introduction of a 15% point of consumption wagering tax from October to be a minor positive for Tabcorp. The broker expects the local wagering operator to be able to fully recover this increase.

NSW is expected to announce a similar tax at a rate of between 8-15% next week in the budget. Buy rating and $5.50 target retained.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.61 Difference: $0.89
If TAH meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.21, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of 32.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates TAH as Outperform (1) -

Queensland will introduce a 15% point of consumption tax on wagering from October 1. Macquarie calculates that this tax will cost corporate bookmakers around $195m once enforced across all states - potentially during 2019 and based on a 13% effective rate, assuming 15% in NSW (likely to be announced in the June budget).

The broker expects the wagering environment for Tabcorp to improve in time given the introduction of this tax and regulatory reforms which may impact marketing activities. Outperform maintained. Target is $5.20.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.61 Difference: $0.59
If TAH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.21, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 17.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 20.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of 32.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE  TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $17.22

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Overweight (1) -

From information gathered at the Australian briefing by the Swisse vitamin business, Morgan Stanley notes suggestions that Australian wine exports were now moving across the border to China far more easily and the bottleneck previously signalled by Treasury Wine could be over.

Morgan Stanley suggests this reduces FY18 earnings risk for Treasury Wine. The broker retains an Overweight rating and $20 target. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $17.22 Difference: $2.78
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.13, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 35.70 cents and EPS of 51.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.0, implying annual growth of 34.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 45.50 cents and EPS of 66.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.3, implying annual growth of 27.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Summaries
APA APA Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $10.00
ASL AUSDRILL Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $1.90
AZJ AURIZON HOLDINGS Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $4.15
BLD BORAL Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $6.45
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $6.45
CIP CENTURIA INDUSTRIAL REIT Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans Overnight Price $2.59
CTX CALTEX AUSTRALIA Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $30.57
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $30.57
Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $30.57
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $30.57
CWN CROWN RESORTS Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $13.38
CYB CYBG Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $5.37
GMG GOODMAN GRP Buy - Citi Overnight Price $9.44
KLL KALIUM LAKES Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.44
MIN MINERAL RESOURCES Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $16.40
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $16.40
MTS METCASH Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.79
Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $2.79
OGC OCEANAGOLD Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.41
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.41
RCR RCR TOMLINSON Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.91
RIO RIO TINTO Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $84.11
SEH SINO GAS & ENERGY Buy - Citi Overnight Price $0.23
SFR SANDFIRE Sell - UBS Overnight Price $9.61
SGR STAR ENTERTAINMENT Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.78
SUN SUNCORP Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $13.84
TAH TABCORP HOLDINGS Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $4.61
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.61
TWE TREASURY WINE ESTATES Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $17.22
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

22

3. Hold

4

5. Sell

3

Wednesday 13 June 2018

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.