Australian Broker Call

October 05, 2016

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

Last Updated: 11:11 AM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
OGC - OCEANAGOLD Upgrade to Hold from Sell Deutsche Bank
SGM - SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT Upgrade to Hold from Sell Deutsche Bank
ALL  ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

Consumer Services

Overnight Price: $16.28

UBS rates ALL as Buy (1) -

UBS upgrades forecasts for Aristocrat to reflect a strong product outlook in the US and Australia, partly offset by a stronger Australian dollar.

The broker believes there are three key catalysts that may create a positive step change in earnings, including the US performance for Lightning Link, digital content which continues to outperform competitors and one of the new segment entries, if successful.

Buy retained. Target is raised to $17.60 from $16.36.

Target price is $17.60 Current Price is $16.28 Difference: $1.32
If ALL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.31, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY16:

UBS forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.6, implying annual growth of 88.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.1.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 79.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.3, implying annual growth of 24.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AWE  AWE LIMITED

Energy

Overnight Price: $0.67

Deutsche Bank rates AWE as Hold (3) -

OPEC's proposed production ceiling of 32.5-33m barrels of oil per day marks the first move by the cartel to limit supply after two years of oil price weakness and, while Deutsche Bank expects slight over production, the ceiling is expected to tighten oil markets by 0.4mmb/d in 2017.

The broker believes the move will offset its expectations for higher US oil supply from 2017 and, therefore, the re-balancing thesis is on track for a return to deficits in 2017.

Deutsche Bank retains a Hold rating and target drops to 65c from 70c.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.67 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If AWE meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.79, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 31.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 83.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP  BHP BILLITON LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $22.90

Deutsche Bank rates BHP as Hold (3) -

Deutsche Bank has upgraded commodity price forecasts by an average 3% in 2016 and 6% in 2017. Of the larger upgrades, iron ore forecasts for 2017 are upgraded 7%, coking coal 25%, Newcastle thermal coal 27%, zinc 22% and manganese 37%.

The broker retains a Hold rating and raises the target to $22 from $21.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $22.90 Difference: minus $0.9 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $23.23, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 37.98 cents and EPS of 99.01 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.7.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 51.54 cents and EPS of 107.15 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 96.8, implying annual growth of 9.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BKN  BRADKEN LIMITED

Capital Goods

Overnight Price: $3.20

ADDED

Credit Suisse rates BKN as Neutral (3) -

Bradken's board has unanimously recommended the offer from Hitachi Construction at $3.25 a share. The price represents a 34% premium to the last close.

Credit Suisse observes consistent positive commentary has been forthcoming in recent months, both domestically and offshore, and much of this relates to the maintenance and mine work which Bradken is exposed to.

Credit Suisse maintains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $3.25 from $2.20.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $0.05
If BKN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.70, suggesting downside of -15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.4, implying annual growth of 25.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates BKN as Hold (3) -

Bradken has agreed to the takeover bid from Hitachi Construction at $3.25 a share, cash. The offer is subject to more than 50% of the share being obtained before the end of the offer period as well as the necessary regulatory approvals.

Deutsche Bank observes this is a bottom-of-the-cycle offer for good assets, which have market leading positions despite the depressed earnings and high gearing and considers it disappointing that investors will not be able to participate in the cyclical recovery or restructure.

Deutsche Bank retains a Hold rating and target is raised to $3.25 from $1.90.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $0.05
If BKN meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.70, suggesting downside of -15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.4, implying annual growth of 25.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL  BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $8.05

Morgan Stanley rates BSL as Overweight (1) -

Australian steel spreads have fallen significant, mainly because of higher coal prices and weaker regional steel prices.

Morgan Stanley envisages limited downside to the first half guidance but more significant downside in the second half, should spreads remain at current levels, although notes this is not its base case.

US spreads have also fallen in line with guidance provided at the FY16 result. The broker believes the valuation is cheap but there is risk should spreads not recover. Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating. Target is $9.30. In-Line industry view maintained.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $8.05 Difference: $1.25
If BSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.33, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.70 cents and EPS of 98.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.8, implying annual growth of 49.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.30 cents and EPS of 78.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.4, implying annual growth of -14.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CTX  CALTEX AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Energy

Overnight Price: $35.02

Deutsche Bank rates CTX as Hold (3) -

OPEC's proposed production ceiling of 32.5-33m barrels of oil per day marks the first move by the cartel to limit supply after two years of oil price weakness and, while Deutsche Bank expects slight over production, the ceiling is expected to tighten oil markets by 0.4mmb/d in 2017.

The broker believes the move will offset its expectations for higher US oil supply from 2017 and, therefore, the re-balancing thesis is on track for a return to deficits in 2017.

A Hold rating is retained. Target falls to $33.60 from $33.90.

Target price is $33.60 Current Price is $35.02 Difference: minus $1.42 (current price is over target).
If CTX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.30, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 99.00 cents and EPS of 196.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 203.0, implying annual growth of -12.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 106.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 115.00 cents and EPS of 218.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 221.1, implying annual growth of 8.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CYB  CYBG PLC

Banks

Overnight Price: $4.47

ADDED

Ord Minnett rates CYB as Lighten (4) -

Earnings pressure continues for UK domestic banks, given low interest rates and uncertainty around medium-term economic growth as well as downside risk to London and south east asset prices, Ord Minnett contends.

The broker continues to believe CYBG is fully valued against this backdrop, with a long path to the guidance for double digit returns on equity in 2019.

Lighten rating retained. Target rises to $4.50 from $4.25.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.47 Difference: $0.03
If CYB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.44, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY16:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.67 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 1.31 cents and EPS of 5.21 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 85.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.8, implying annual growth of 33.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DRM  DORAY MINERALS LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $0.62

Macquarie rates DRM as Underperform (5) -

The FY16 result was in line with expectations and the resource and reserve update is consistent with Macquarie's view of declining grade and reduce cash flow at Andy Well.

Macquarie believes the challenge for FY17 will be having sufficient cash to complete all exploration and development plans and meet debt obligations. Underperform retained and target falls to 60c from 70c.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.62 Difference: minus $0.015 (current price is over target).
If DRM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.09.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 5.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.79.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG  FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD

Materials

Overnight Price: $4.90

Deutsche Bank rates FMG as Hold (3) -

Deutsche Bank has upgraded commodity price forecasts by an average 3% in 2016 and 6% in 2017. Of the larger upgrades, iron ore forecasts for 2017 are upgraded 7%, coking coal 25%, Newcastle thermal coal 27%, zinc 22% and manganese 37%.

The broker retains a Hold rating and raises the target to $4.30 from $3.90.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $4.90 Difference: minus $0.6 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.80, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 18.99 cents and EPS of 61.03 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.99 cents and EPS of 39.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.0, implying annual growth of -45.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GMF  GPT METRO OFFICE FUND

Real Estate

Overnight Price: $2.52

Morgans - Cessation of coverage

Forecast for FY16:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 15.40 cents and EPS of 16.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.56.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 15.70 cents and EPS of 16.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.91.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HGG  HENDERSON GROUP PLC.

Diversified Financials

Overnight Price: $4.44

ADDED

Credit Suisse rates HGG as Outperform (1) -

Henderson will merge with Janus Capital, a US asset manager with US$195bn in assets under management (AUM). Credit Suisse believes this will be highly complementary to the business with minimal overlap with Henderson in terms of distribution and product.

The broker is supportive of the deal but notes, while the first 10% of accretion is relatively easy, the next 10-20% is more dependent on retaining AUM, net new money and dilutive structures. Outperform retained. Target is $4.50.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.44 Difference: $0.06
If HGG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 20.18 cents and EPS of 28.83 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 21.14 cents and EPS of 32.67 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.9, implying annual growth of 4.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

This company reports in GBP. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates HGG as Neutral (3) -

Henderson has announced a merger with Janus Capital with the new entity to be called Janus Henderson Global Investors. Henderson stock will be converted 1:1.

Macquarie believes the combined group is attractive from a geographical and product view but flags a risk of revenue attrition. Hence, Neutral rating retained. Target is $4.05.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $4.44 Difference: minus $0.39 (current price is over target).
If HGG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 18.45 cents and EPS of 27.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 17.11 cents and EPS of 25.18 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.9, implying annual growth of 4.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

This company reports in GBP. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ILU  ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $6.34

Deutsche Bank rates ILU as Sell (5) -

Deutsche Bank has upgraded commodity price forecasts by an average 3% in 2016 and 6% in 2017. Of the larger upgrades, iron ore forecasts for 2017 are upgraded 7%, coking coal 25%, Newcastle thermal coal 27%, zinc 22% and manganese 37%.

Sell rating retained as Iluka appears expensive to Deutsche Bank needs to reinvest heavily with zircon price risk. Target reduced to $5.10 from $5.90.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $6.34 Difference: minus $1.24 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.63, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 576.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.5, implying annual growth of -18.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 59.4.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 21.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.2, implying annual growth of 130.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KAR  KAROON GAS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Energy

Overnight Price: $1.36

Deutsche Bank rates KAR as Buy (1) -

OPEC's proposed production ceiling of 32.5-33m barrels of oil per day marks the first move by the cartel to limit supply after two years of oil price weakness and, while Deutsche Bank expects slight over production, the ceiling is expected to tighten oil markets by 0.4mmb/d in 2017.

The broker believes the move will offset its expectations for higher US oil supply from 2017 and, therefore, the re-balancing thesis is on track for a return to deficits in 2017.

A Buy rating is retained. Target is reduced to $2.30 from $2.40.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: $0.94
If KAR meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.33, suggesting upside of 72.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 46.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -13.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 90.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -6.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NAB  NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED

Banks

Overnight Price: $28.13

Morgans rates NAB as Hold (3) -

National Australia Bank has completed the sale of 80% of its life insurance business to Nippon Life and now expects the loss on sale to be $100-200m more than previously envisaged.

Morgans adjusts forecast to allow for the larger loss on sale and earlier-than-expected completion. The broker makes no changes to cash earnings forecasts.

Hold retained. Target rises to $26.70 from $26.40.

Target price is $26.70 Current Price is $28.13 Difference: minus $1.43 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.63, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY16:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 251.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 243.1, implying annual growth of -3.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 193.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 188.00 cents and EPS of 249.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 239.0, implying annual growth of -1.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 183.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OGC  OCEANAGOLD CORPORATION

Materials

Overnight Price: $4.21

ADDED

Credit Suisse rates OGC as Underperform (5) -

The company's managing director has engaged with the Philippines government officials directly to gain clarity on the findings of the review of the Didipio operation. Credit Suisse interprets this as a positive development.

Didipio continues to operate unimpeded and there is no change to production or cost guidance. The company is yet to receive an official notification with respect to the audit.

The company understands a small number of social claims will be investigated but no environmental issues have been identified. Underperform rating is retained. Target is $4.40.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.21 Difference: $0.19
If OGC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 5.43 cents and EPS of 34.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 2.71 cents and EPS of 54.01 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.4, implying annual growth of 45.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates OGC as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

Deutsche Bank has upgraded commodity price forecasts by an average 3% in 2016 and 6% in 2017. Of the larger upgrades, iron ore forecasts for 2017 are upgraded 7%, coking coal 25%, Newcastle thermal coal 27%, zinc 22% and manganese 37%.

The gold sector appears expensive to the broker based on a US$1,300-1,420/oz flat gold deck and weakening Australian dollar profile.

Deutsche Bank upgrades OceanaGold to Hold from Sell on valuation. Target is raised to $4.30 from $3.90.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $4.21 Difference: $0.09
If OGC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 5.43 cents and EPS of 21.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 5.43 cents and EPS of 37.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.4, implying annual growth of 45.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORE  OROCOBRE LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $3.60

Morgans rates ORE as Add (1) -

Production for July and August was 2,118t with a realised product price estimated at above US$9,400/t. The stock remains Morgans preferred investment in the lithium sector.

The broker holds the view that mid-term supply/demand will remain tight with prices above US$10,000/t. Add rating retained with a target of $5.66.

Target price is $5.66 Current Price is $3.60 Difference: $2.06
If ORE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.30, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 47.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 64.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 43.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG  ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

Energy

Overnight Price: $5.53

Deutsche Bank rates ORG as Hold (3) -

OPEC's proposed production ceiling of 32.5-33m barrels of oil per day marks the first move by the cartel to limit supply after two years of oil price weakness and, while Deutsche Bank expects slight over production, the ceiling is expected to tighten oil markets by 0.4mmb/d in 2017.

The broker believes the move will offset its expectations for higher US oil supply from 2017 and, therefore, the re-balancing thesis is on track for a return to deficits in 2017.

The broker retains a Hold rating and reduces the target to $5.60 from $5.75.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.53 Difference: $0.07
If ORG meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.07, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 26.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 51.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.6, implying annual growth of 76.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORI  ORICA LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $15.29

ADDED

Credit Suisse rates ORI as Neutral (3) -

The company is a late cycle resource play and likely to benefit from improving fundamentals and the increased use of explosives in iron ore and coal markets.

Despite this, Credit Suisse does not expect prices will improve in the near term for explosives because of excess capacity and cost cutting by customers.

Credit Suisse retains a Neutral rating. The target is raised to $15.51 from $13.60, given an increase in outer year forecasts and an appreciation in the valuation comparison group.

Target price is $15.51 Current Price is $15.29 Difference: $0.22
If ORI meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.56, suggesting downside of -8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY16:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 56.10 cents and EPS of 106.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 105.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 57.19 cents and EPS of 103.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.2, implying annual growth of -2.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OSH  OIL SEARCH LIMITED

Energy

Overnight Price: $7.20

Deutsche Bank rates OSH as Buy (1) -

OPEC's proposed production ceiling of 32.5-33m barrels of oil per day marks the first move by the cartel to limit supply after two years of oil price weakness and, while Deutsche Bank expects slight over production, the ceiling is expected to tighten oil markets by 0.4mmb/d in 2017.

The broker believes the move will offset its expectations for higher US oil supply from 2017 and, therefore, the re-balancing thesis is on track for a return to deficits in 2017.

Oil Search remains the broker's top pick. Deutsche Bank retains a Buy rating and $8.50 target.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.20 Difference: $1.3
If OSH meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.89, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 6.78 cents and EPS of 14.38 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 50.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 61.1.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.21 cents and EPS of 30.65 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of 122.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO  RIO TINTO LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $52.48

Deutsche Bank rates RIO as Buy (1) -

Deutsche Bank has upgraded commodity price forecasts by an average 3% in 2016 and 6% in 2017. Of the larger upgrades, iron ore forecasts for 2017 are upgraded 7%, coking coal 25%, Newcastle thermal coal 27%, zinc 22% and manganese 37%.

Buy rating retained. Target rises to $56.50 from $56.00.

Target price is $56.50 Current Price is $52.48 Difference: $4.02
If RIO meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $55.16, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 155.98 cents and EPS of 303.81 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 269.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 146.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 153.26 cents and EPS of 292.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 281.3, implying annual growth of 4.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 153.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32  SOUTH32 LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $2.47

Deutsche Bank rates S32 as Hold (3) -

Deutsche Bank has upgraded commodity price forecasts by an average 3% in 2016 and 6% in 2017. Of the larger upgrades, iron ore forecasts for 2017 are upgraded 7%, coking coal 25%, Newcastle thermal coal 27%, zinc 22% and manganese 37%.

The broker retains a Hold rating and raises the target to $2.10 from $1.90.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.47 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.27, suggesting downside of -7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 2.71 cents and EPS of 17.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 2.73 cents and EPS of 6.83 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.0, implying annual growth of -8.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGM  SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $9.48

Deutsche Bank rates SGM as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

Deutsche Bank increases iron ore price expectations significantly and now expects scrap prices to rise in FY17 Accordingly, the company should be able to achieve volume and price rises in FY17 and FY18, leading to margin expansion.

The broker notes the company has continued to cut costs as quickly as possible in order to smooth earnings and the sale or closure of the 13 identified facilities will provide further benefit in FY17.

Rating is upgraded to Hold from Sell and the target is raised to $9.33 from $8.02.

Target price is $9.33 Current Price is $9.48 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.74, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.3, implying annual growth of -6.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.8, implying annual growth of 28.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO  SANTOS LIMITED

Energy

Overnight Price: $3.80

Deutsche Bank rates STO as Buy (1) -

OPEC's proposed production ceiling of 32.5-33m barrels of oil per day marks the first move by the cartel to limit supply after two years of oil price weakness and, while Deutsche Bank expects slight over production, the ceiling is expected to tighten oil markets by 0.4mmb/d in 2017.

The broker believes the move will offset its expectations for higher US oil supply from 2017 and, therefore, the re-balancing thesis is on track for a return to deficits in 2017.

Deutsche Bank retains a Buy rating. Target is reduced to $5.10 from $5.30.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $1.5
If STO meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.12, suggesting upside of 33.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 5.43 cents and EPS of 3.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 103.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 191.5.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.21 cents and EPS of 27.94 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.0, implying annual growth of 1000.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SYR  SYRAH RESOURCES LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $4.34

Macquarie rates SYR as Outperform (1) -

The company has advised that graphite from its Balama project can be upgraded to higher levels of total graphite content.

This will lift the price of the company's product but without more technical details Macquarie leaves estimates unchanged.

Target price is $6.60. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $4.34 Difference: $2.26
If SYR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.36, suggesting upside of 92.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY16:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 45.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -6.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 217.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TME  TRADE ME GROUP LIMITED

Retailing

Overnight Price: $5.33

Deutsche Bank rates TME as Hold (3) -

Facebook has launched its Marketplace in New Zealand to compete with Trade Me. Deutsche Bank believes the user experience is poor and only suitable for local and face-to-face transactions of used goods, which limits the threat.

The broker acknowledges the stock's valuation is full and retains a Hold rating in the view that the franchise is quality and, in time, the company will deliver on faster growth.

Target is reduced to NZ$5.01 from NZ$5.03.

Current Price is $5.33. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 17.69 cents and EPS of 21.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.62 cents and EPS of 23.28 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.4, implying annual growth of 9.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VHT  VOLPARA HEALTH TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED

Health Care Equipment & Services

Overnight Price: $0.56

Morgans rates VHT as Add (1) -

The company has announced its first sale of Volpara Enterprises, a cloud based solution for breast screening clinics, to a clinic in Perth.

The next catalyst will be the appointment of a new distributor, Morgans observes. Add rating and 85c target retained.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.29
If VHT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.48.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.37.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WES  WESFARMERS LIMITED

Food & Staples Retailing

Overnight Price: $44.15

ADDED

Credit Suisse rates WES as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse upgrades coal price assumptions and cash cost estimates for the company's resources division. Divisional revenue forecasts are increased by 30%.

The broker reduces like-for-like growth forecasts for Bunnings in the first quarter and Target for FY17. Forecast changes overall represent a 4.7% increase to resources earnings and 0.3% decrease to retail earnings.

Target reduces to $41.41 from $41.50. Neutral retained.

Target price is $41.41 Current Price is $44.15 Difference: minus $2.74 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $42.09, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 187.00 cents and EPS of 251.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 241.4, implying annual growth of 566.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 201.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 196.00 cents and EPS of 263.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 259.4, implying annual growth of 7.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 215.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WHC  WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED

Energy

Overnight Price: $2.53

Deutsche Bank rates WHC as Hold (3) -

Deutsche Bank observes both Maules Creek and Narrabri coal mines are on track to expand to 10.5mtpa and 9mtpa respectively by the end of FY17.

The broker now assumes a step up to 40% semi soft in the second half rather than gradually over four years. A Hold rating is retained with a $2.30 target.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.21, suggesting downside of -15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.8, implying annual growth of 747.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.5, implying annual growth of -18.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WPL  WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED

Energy

Overnight Price: $29.06

Deutsche Bank rates WPL as Hold (3) -

OPEC's proposed production ceiling of 32.5-33m barrels of oil per day marks the first move by the cartel to limit supply after two years of oil price weakness and, while Deutsche Bank expects slight over production, the ceiling is expected to tighten oil markets by 0.4mmb/d in 2017.

The broker believes the move will offset its expectations for higher US oil supply from 2017 and, therefore, the re-balancing thesis is on track for a return to deficits in 2017.

The broker retains the Hold rating and reduces the target to $26.95 from $27.00.

Target price is $26.95 Current Price is $29.06 Difference: minus $2.11 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.80, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 105.79 cents and EPS of 126.41 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 131.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 106.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 134.27 cents and EPS of 167.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 155.2, implying annual growth of 17.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 126.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Summaries
ALL - ARISTOCRAT LEISURE Buy - UBS Overnight Price $16.28
AWE - AWE Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $0.67
BHP - BHP BILLITON Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $22.90
BKN - BRADKEN Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.20
Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $3.20
BSL - BLUESCOPE STEEL Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $8.05
CTX - CALTEX AUSTRALIA Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $35.02
CYB - CYBG Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.47
DRM - DORAY MINERALS Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.62
FMG - FORTESCUE Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $4.90
GMF - GPT METRO OFFICE FUND Cessation of coverage - Morgans Overnight Price $2.52
HGG - HENDERSON GROUP Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $4.44
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.44
ILU - ILUKA RESOURCES Sell - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $6.34
KAR - KAROON GAS Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $1.36
NAB - NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $28.13
OGC - OCEANAGOLD Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $4.21
Upgrade to Hold from Sell - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $4.21
ORE - OROCOBRE Add - Morgans Overnight Price $3.60
ORG - ORIGIN ENERGY Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $5.53
ORI - ORICA Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $15.29
OSH - OIL SEARCH Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $7.20
RIO - RIO TINTO Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $52.48
S32 - SOUTH32 Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $2.47
SGM - SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT Upgrade to Hold from Sell - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $9.48
STO - SANTOS Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $3.80
SYR - SYRAH RESOURCES Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.34
TME - TRADE ME GROUP Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $5.33
VHT - VOLPARA HEALTH TECHNOLOGIES Add - Morgans Overnight Price $0.56
WES - WESFARMERS Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $44.15
WHC - WHITEHAVEN COAL Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $2.53
WPL - WOODSIDE PETROLEUM Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $29.06
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

10

3. Hold

17

4. Reduce

1

5. Sell

3

Wednesday 05 October 2016

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.