Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates 3PL as Equal-weight (3) -

3P Learning has confirmed that it should be resilient in the current market environment which assists in alleviating Morgan Stanley's concerns regarding a large implied skew to the second half.

Evidence of US traction remains a key catalyst, which has previously been influenced by the deferral of product development timeframes.

Target is $0.86. Equal-weight rating. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $0.86 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: $0.07
If 3PL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMA as Buy (1) -

While pricing and volume negotiations with Suncorp ((SUN)) have been favourable, restrictions from the pandemic mean fewer cars on the road and fewer accidents providing work for smash repairers.

Cost controls should partially offset the short-term impact while covenant waivers eliminate some risk.

UBS would prefer a cleaner balance sheet to take advantage of potential opportunities but expects the business may benefit when the restrictions are lifted, as holidaymakers take domestic trips in preference to international holidays.

Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $0.55 from $1.20.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.16
If AMA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMP as Sell (5) -

Citi assesses, while there may be some form of capital return from the proceeds of the life sale, there are likely to be short-term hurdles and a possible delay in the transaction. Consequently zero dividends a forecast for 2020.

AMP Capital net inflows of -$1.3bn were better than the broker expected. AMP remains hopeful there will be a switch to growth asset products as the market improves, but the broker still envisages some risk of reversal.

Sell/High Risk. Target price reduced to $1.25 from $1.40.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.44, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AMP as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse observes the trend in outflows has started to stabilise and there has been a 25% increase in inflows in the past two quarters.

There was no update from AMP on the capital position, customer remediation or the sale of the life business, points out the broker.

The broker assumes everything is tracking to plan. Outperform maintained. Target is $1.50.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: $0.19
If AMP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.44, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

Outflows continued to accelerate in the March quarter from AMP's wealth management businesses, offset by continued strong growth for the banking business, the broker notes. No update was provided on proposed asset sales.

Until the company can finalise the sale of its Life business, the broker sees the investment case as "challenging". Neutral and $1.20 target retained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.44, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AMP as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley assesses the first quarter was challenging but most of the issues are now factored into the price and, significantly, there was no delay to the completion of the life deal.

AMP Bank provided 3.5% annualised loan growth which was broadly in line with forecasts. While there was no mention of a top up to collective provisioning, the broker suspects this is a risk in the June quarter.

Rating is Equal-weight and target is $1.70. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: $0.39
If AMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.44, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AMP as Hold (3) -

Morgans found no real negative surprises in the first quarter update. Dominant themes continue.

The broker downgrades FY20 and FY21 estimates for earnings per share by -45% and -25% respectively.

Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $1.42 from $1.86.

Target price is $1.42 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: $0.11
If AMP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.44, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMP as Hold (3) -

Australian wealth management and NZ funds under management are broadly consistent with Ord Minnett's forecasts in the March quarter.

The broker expects there will be further marking to market charges taken in property, assuming around a -30% hit and noting real estate is around 15% of the portfolio of AMP Capital.

Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating and $1.59 target.

Target price is $1.59 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: $0.28
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.44, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

Net outflows on the retail platform in first quarter eased slightly, as the company narrowed its aligned adviser footprint. Mobility restrictions are affecting the business in the second quarter and the prospects for improved net flows appear low to UBS.

The strategy to re-shape the offering and cut costs should help over time but the benefits seem some way off, in the broker's view. UBS finds little appeal in the short term and retains a Neutral rating and $1.40 target.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: $0.09
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.44, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates API as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

First half results were in line with indications provided by the company in late March. The result does not reflect any impact from the pandemic. In the light of an uncertain environment, Australian Pharmaceutical has suspended the dividend and provided no guidance for FY20.

The biggest variable for the second half is the removal of the lock-down, which Citi assumes will be June 1, 2020. The broker reduces estimates for FY20-22 by -17-22%. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral and the target is reduced to $1.15 from $1.40.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $0.1
If API meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.20, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates API as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

First half operating earnings were slightly ahead of estimates. The company experienced increased demand for pharmaceuticals in March, as a result of both the pandemic and panic buying.

Credit Suisse assumes a material slowdown over the next 3-6 months. No guidance was provided for the second half. All Priceline stores remain open but sales have slowed in April because of social distancing.

Credit Suisse expects no dividend in the second half. Rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform and the target is reduced to $1.10 from $1.25.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $0.05
If API meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.20, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AST as Buy (1) -

UBS anticipates new renewable projects in Victoria along with the company's success in securing the western Victoria transmission upgrade could mean there are a number of catalysts to be outlined at the FY20 results on May 12.

While the balance sheet is not observed to be under stress, the broker can contemplates several reasons why the company may raise equity this year.

This includes funding a large growth program, maintaining the A- credit rating and supporting distribution growth in the medium term. Buy rating and $1.85 target retained.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.87 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If AST meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.79, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AWC as Buy (1) -

Alcoa has increased 2020 aluminium shipments guidance, while guidance for bauxite and alumina is unchanged. To preserve cash, AWAC will put all growth capital expenditure on hold for the remainder of 2020.

Citi reduces second quarter alumina price forecasts to US$235/t and, as a result, forecasts first half Alumina Ltd share of profit at $89m. This reduces 2020 net profit estimates for Alumina Ltd by -5%. Buy rating and $2 target maintained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: $0.49
If AWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.83, suggesting upside of 21.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AWC as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

The alumina market is weak, with the company effectively receiving no distributions in February and March. The June quarter will also be soft, although Credit Suisse notes the balance sheet is in good shape.

While the environment remains tough and there are probably opportunities to buy the stock at a cheaper price, the broker's rating system triggers a move to Outperform from Neutral. Target is reduced to $1.80 from $2.40.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: $0.29
If AWC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.83, suggesting upside of 21.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AWC as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Alumina Ltd posted a solid March quarter result, Macquarie suggests, with production, sales and the share of AWAC earnings all in line with expectations. Distributions from the AWAC joint venture with Alcoa were 7% higher than forecast and AWAC is looking to cut capex to offset weaker alumina prices.

Downside risk for alumina prices is nevertheless increasing, Macquarie warns, with spot currently -21% below the broker's 2020 forecast. Were the broker to run spot prices in its valuation, forecast earnings would fall -57% and -66% in 2020-21. 

Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform. Target falls to $1.50 from $1.90.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.83, suggesting upside of 21.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AWC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley observes net distributions are tracking significantly below its expectations. Second quarter payments are likely to be affected by a lower alumina price but helped by capital expenditure reductions.

There is no change to production and cost guidance but AWAC will put on hold all growth capital expenditure for the remainder of 2020.

The broker retains an Overweight rating and $2.60 target. In-Line industry view.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: $1.09
If AWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.83, suggesting upside of 21.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AWC as Hold (3) -

March quarter production from AWAC produced combined operating earnings of US$313m, up US$48m quarter on quarter, although the majority of the increase resulted from a non-cash balance sheet revaluation.

Cash costs fell to US$199/t. AWAC has also cut its growth capital expenditure in light of the downturn. Alumina Ltd is trading close to Ord Minnett's valuation and offers a 2-3% dividend yield.

The broker does not envisage any financial distress although it could be a while before the industry recovers. Hold maintained. Target is reduced to $1.60 from $1.70.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: $0.09
If AWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.83, suggesting upside of 21.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AWC as Neutral (3) -

Alcoa has withdrawn its supply/demand outlook because of uncertainty resulting from the pandemic. Alumina Ltd has received US$33.8m after the first quarter which can be used to pay the 2020 interim dividend.

The company has also announced a deferral of capital expenditure totalling US$60m to 2021, lifting the 2020 dividend 11%.

An operating earnings margin of US$80/t was achieved in the March quarter. Neutral rating and $1.50 target maintained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.83, suggesting upside of 21.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CAR as Neutral (3) -

Restrictions on movement suggest that, while used car transactions are more resilient to an economic downturn, sales will suffer this year.

It remains unclear how volumes will recover after the restrictions are eased but the broker suspects transactions are likely to remain soft.

The company is expected to maintain gearing which falls well within the covenants. Neutral retained. Target is reduced to $14.40 from $18.80.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $13.00 Difference: $1.4
If CAR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.21, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CAR as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Most parts of Carsales' business have been impacted, Macquarie notes. The company moved early to waive advertising costs in April and this will extend to a -50% discount in May, with further discounts possible.

The payment of the dividend in April has not dented a robust balance sheet nonetheless, which should see Carsales through, the broker believes.

To that end Macquarie upgrades to Outperform from Neutral, noting Carsales will remain a core and dominant platform as sales begin to recover over time. Target falls to $15.30 from $18.60.

Target price is $15.30 Current Price is $13.00 Difference: $2.3
If CAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.21, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CAR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes no guidance was provided at the update, the company's second since the outbreak of the pandemic.

Dealer leads were positive in the first quarter. Since the last update SK Encar continues to perform well, the company notes while Brazil is softening.

The broker notes the depth of the downturn and shape of the eventual recovery remain the issue and it is too early to call a bottom in revenue momentum.

Overweight rating is on a 12-month view. Attractive industry view and $15.50 target maintained.

Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $13.00 Difference: $2.5
If CAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.21, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CAR as Add (1) -

The company has stepped up the level of dealer support. While the short-term cost is high, Morgans assesses the company needs to maintain a strong customer base to have a more profitable business in the long run.

The broker lowers forecasts to reflect the higher level of support, coupled with lower dealer inquiry volumes in FY20 and FY21. Add rating maintained. Target is reduced to $14.58 from $15.09.

Target price is $14.58 Current Price is $13.00 Difference: $1.58
If CAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.21, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CAR as Neutral (3) -

Carsales.com will discount dealer charges by -50% in May 2020 and defer April and May invoices by 30 days. On top of dealer support measures the company will also cut board and executive remuneration by around -20% for three months and temporarily stand down 250 staff.

UBS estimates impact of these cost-cutting measures could be around -$5-6m in the second half. The broker lowers group revenue expectations, which is offset by the cost reductions. Neutral rating and $12.50 target maintained.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $13.00 Difference: minus $0.5 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.21, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CGF as Hold (3) -

As a result of the March quarter update, Morgans downgrades FY21 forecasts for cash earnings per share by -10%. The changes in earnings mainly reflect the impact of the recent de-risking of the investment portfolio.

While value is starting to re-emerge, the broker has difficulty with the operating environment and believes volatile markets could provide a more attractive entry point down the track. Hold maintained. Target is reduced to $4.75 from $6.33.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $4.03 Difference: $0.72
If CGF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.09, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi is pleased with the consistent cash flow, asset diversity and growth potential but considers the stock priced for success. Hence, the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy.

The company has guided to 195,000 ounces in the June quarter, ex Red Lake, up 15% on the March quarter. Citi increases the target to $4.90 from $4.40.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $5.16 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.61, suggesting downside of -10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Outperform (1) -

Evolution Mining posted a mixed March quarter, with lower production offset by lower costs, the latter due to lower sustaining capex.

The company has plenty of liquidity, a low operating cost and robust cash flow, the broker notes, leaving it well placed to ride out any virus disruptions and offering investors with a low risk exposure to A$ gold.

Red Lake will provide a new leg of growth, but is long-dated. The broker has increased its net asset value and cash flow multiples to arrive at a new target of $5.40, up from $4.20. Outperform retained.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.16 Difference: $0.24
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.61, suggesting downside of -10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Overweight (1) -

Production and costs were weaker than expected in the March quarter. Morgan Stanley's estimates for FY20 are below Evolution Mining's guidance.

Sustaining capital expenditure has been reduced while growth expenditure has increased at Cowal, with underground work the main cause.

While the broker is bullish regarding gold equities and retains an Overweight rating, the stock is now above the target of $4.10. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $5.16 Difference: minus $1.06 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.61, suggesting downside of -10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Sell (5) -

March quarter production was slightly softer than Ord Minnett expected. The company is aiming for the lower end of its production guidance range and the higher end in terms of costs.

The broker assesses a strong quarter from Mt Carlton and Mt Rawdon will be required to achieve guidance and retains a Sell rating and $3.70 target.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $5.16 Difference: minus $1.46 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.61, suggesting downside of -10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Buy (1) -

March quarter production was -6% below UBS forecasts. While guidance is maintained, the broker assesses this will require a large lift in production in the June quarter and require all assets to function well.

Red Lake production was a positive surprise on the other hand, and the capital deployed is expected to be reduced. Buy rating maintained. Target is raised to $5.50 from $4.80.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.16 Difference: $0.34
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.61, suggesting downside of -10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FXL as Buy (1) -

UBS found no significant surprises in the update. The company has revealed trading was softer in April in cards and BNPL volumes, although this was partially offset by demanding commercial leasing.

FlexiGroup is now targeting a -15% reduction in operating expenditure over FY21. Funding facilities have been reaffirmed. Buy rating and $1.60 target maintained.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: $0.87
If FXL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 119% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.28, suggesting upside of 75.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GXY as Underperform (5) -

Galaxy Resources had already pre-released its production and shipments numbers, noting cash costs were higher under "campaign" production (producing in batches rather than continuous flow -- a worker safety measure at this time). 2020 guidance has been retained with Mt Cattlin curtailed for the rest of the year.

While the broker expects improved lithium prices by year-end, risk in the near term is to the downside, with customers impacted by the virus. Underperform retained, target falls to 35c from 50c.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.77 Difference: minus $0.42 (current price is over target).
If GXY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.95, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GXY as Equal-weight (3) -

The relevance of production metrics in the first quarter is limited, Morgan Stanley assesses, particularly in light of a ramp up of the plant at Mount Cattlin.

The broker updates its model to reflect lower recoveries and a lower grade of lithium ore being processed. Equal-weight rating and $0.80 target maintained. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.77 Difference: $0.03
If GXY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.95, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GXY as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett assesses Galaxy Resources is well-placed to ride out the lows in the lithium sector, although it needs to make some investment decisions on Sal de Vida soon, in order to benefit from a future recovery in prices.

The sector recovery is potentially pushed into 2022 so the broker acknowledges there is no great hurry. Works continued in the quarter, affected at the end by lock-downs in Argentina and no update has been provided on the final scope.

Ord Minnett retains an Accumulate rating and $0.95 target.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.77 Difference: $0.18
If GXY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.95, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GXY as Neutral (3) -

Both sales and costs were ahead of UBS estimates in the March quarter. The company finished the quarter with no debt but the broker notes cash and financial assets have declined by -US$13.6m, as positive free cash flow at Mount Cattlin is offset by expenditure at Sal de Vida and James Bay.

Approval of the Sal de Vida project could pressure the balance sheet although UBS would not expect the company to proceed unless the market improves, or it takes a partner albeit this is not the preferred option. Neutral. Target is $1.09.

Target price is $1.09 Current Price is $0.77 Difference: $0.32
If GXY meets the UBS target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.95, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects general insurers will be relatively resilient during the recession.

Insurance Australia's rating is upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight.

The broker considers the stock presents compelling value and warrants a premium in the current environment as it is a defensive pure domestic insurer.

Target is reduced to $7.00 from $7.90. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.87 Difference: $1.13
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.91, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IFM as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse reiterates an Outperform rating as the capital raising of $70m plus a $15m share purchase plan, primarily for acquisitions, supports a positive view, underpinned by a recurring revenue base.

The broker believes the right acquisition could generate meaningful synergies, particularly revenue from cross selling. Target is $2.60.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: $1.05
If IFM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IPL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes the decision to retain the fertiliser business was sound, given an improved domestic fertiliser season and the absence of one-off events.

This should provide a tailwind while the explosives business should be relatively resilient.

Still the broker considers the value is not enticing and there is better risk/reward elsewhere.

Equal-weight. Cautious industry view. Target is reduced to $2.70 from $3.20.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: $0.62
If IPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.11, suggesting upside of 49.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates JBH as Neutral (3) -

The surge in demand that occurred in March and April may be underwriting a strong result but Credit Suisse notes significant uncertainty in the outlook as household income and business cash flow declines.

Still, the business is considered a best-in-class and consolidation of the large home appliances segment could benefit JB Hi-Fi in the medium term. Neutral maintained. Target is raised to $32.87 from $26.98.

Target price is $32.87 Current Price is $33.80 Difference: minus $0.93 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.32, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LVH as Add (1) -

March quarter results were solid, Morgans asserts. The company has announced a cost reduction program, intending to save around -$7m a year.

The broker assesses the business is well funded and on track to have a cash balance at the end of the financial year of more than $20m.

Add/High Risk retained. Target is raised to $0.57 from $0.56.

Target price is $0.57 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.35
If LVH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 159% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RHC as Underweight (5) -

The capital raising of $1.2bn should support consolidation when the industry returns to normal, Morgan Stanley assesses.

The Australian government will allow around 25% of deferred surgeries to recommence, although the ramp up to full capacity is unclear.

While a gradual path towards a return to a pre-pandemic operating level by FY22 is likely, Morgan Stanley suspects higher unemployment will make for a generally poorer environment.

Underweight rating retained. Target is raised to $55 from $51. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $55.00 Current Price is $62.14 Difference: minus $7.14 (current price is over target).
If RHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $64.05, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RHC as Hold (3) -

The company has increased its financial flexibility, raising up to $1.4bn in equity. Although the business is now in a stronger position, Morgans has questions regarding the return to normal of surgical services and how Ramsay Health Care will exit government agreements.

The dividend has been temporarily suspended and the proceeds of the equity raising will be used to partially re-pay debt. Hold maintained. Target is reduced to $60.38 from $67.38.

Target price is $60.38 Current Price is $62.14 Difference: minus $1.76 (current price is over target).
If RHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $64.05, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RHC as Accumulate (2) -

Australian government has eased restrictions on elective surgery. Ord Minnett is increasingly confident Ramsay Health Care's Australian business will return to profitability early in FY21 and raises near-term forecasts.

The equity raising should also ensure the group is well-positioned to take advantage of investment opportunities. Accumulate rating maintained. Target rises to $66 from $63.

Target price is $66.00 Current Price is $62.14 Difference: $3.86
If RHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $64.05, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SRV as Buy (1) -

The company has recently withdrawn FY20 guidance and halted all discretionary expenditure and capital expenditure programs. UBS expects a FY21 pre-tax profit loss of -$15m with a recovery from FY22.

Little growth is expected in the long-term but the broker acknowledges there is significant uncertainty. Valuation is undemanding and a Buy rating is maintained. Target is reduced to $3.80 from $5.10.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $2.41 Difference: $1.39
If SRV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Buy (1) -

Production in the March quarter was well below Citi's estimates. The main question on investor minds, the broker observes, is whether there will be an equity raising.

Citi suspects not, considering the credit rating and balance sheet are fine. The company is able to control its expenditure profile and possibly sell assets, while there are still other levers to pull before new equity would be required.

Buy/High Risk rating maintained. Target is raised to $6.47 from $6.22.

Target price is $6.47 Current Price is $4.34 Difference: $2.13
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.45, suggesting upside of 25.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates STO as No Rating (-1) -

The company has signalled there is no risk to debt covenants and Credit Suisse's models support this through to 2022. Oil hedging is increased to 14.2mmbbl in 2020.

LNG cargo deferrals have begun as production is deferred rather than sold on weak spot markets. This will hit near-term cash flow, the broker notes. Credit Suisse also doubts marginal onshore drilling is economic at present.

The broker is restricted on providing a rating or target at present.

Current Price is $4.34. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $5.45, suggesting upside of 25.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

Santos' production, sales and revenue all missed the broker's forecast in the March quarter due to lower WA volumes and variance in realised prices. Full year production and sales guidance have been increased and cost guidance has been reduced.

The balance sheet remains serviceable, the broker suggests, with the next debt repayment due in 2022, although weak oil prices are putting pressure on earnings and thus the balance sheet and on the viability of growth options. Outperform retained, target falls to $5.20 from $5.50.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.34 Difference: $0.86
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.45, suggesting upside of 25.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates STO as Add (1) -

The first quarter result signals to Morgans the company is confident it can withstand the current depressed environment without being tempted to raise new equity.

Sales revenue was 7% ahead of estimates, despite production being -4% lower quarter on quarter. Morgans maintains an Add rating and raises the target to $4.72 from $4.62.

Target price is $4.72 Current Price is $4.34 Difference: $0.38
If STO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.45, suggesting upside of 25.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STO as Accumulate (2) -

March quarter production was below Ord Minnett's expectations. GLNG and Cooper Basin both reported strong output but the quarter was affected by an unplanned shutdown of the Western Australian gas customer.

Full year production guidance has been upgraded to 81-89 mmboe because of the deferral of the sell-down of interests in Bayu-Undan and Darwin LNG until business conditions improve.

Accumulate maintained. Target is reduced to $6.85 from $7.00.

Target price is $6.85 Current Price is $4.34 Difference: $2.51
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.45, suggesting upside of 25.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates STO as Neutral (3) -

First quarter sales revenue was ahead of UBS estimates while production was lower than expected. The company is targeting free cash flow break-even of US$25/bbl in 2020.

Santos is also acquiring additional equity in the Darwin LNG/Bayu-Undan, which has a higher production cost compared with the remaining portfolio and may raise cost guidance upon closure of the deal.

UBS retains a Neutral rating, which is under review, and raises the target to $4.45 from $3.60.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $4.34 Difference: $0.11
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.45, suggesting upside of 25.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley expects general insurers will be relatively resilient during the recession.

The broker understands why the valuation and strong excess capital appeals to investors yet, as Suncorp has bank exposure, an Underweight rating is maintained.

 In-Line sector view. Price target is reduced to $8.20 from $11.80.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $8.95 Difference: minus $0.75 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.46, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates UWL as Buy (1) -

March quarter cash flow has indicated the integration of acquired brands has progressed smoothly. Ord Minnett assesses the business is on track for its FY21 forecasts.

The high-quality revenue stream and growth outlook continues to appeal to the broker and a Buy rating is maintained. Target is raised to $1.68 from $1.50.

Target price is $1.68 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: $0.31
If UWL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VHT as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

The company has announced a $35m capital raising, expecting revenue of NZ$16.2m in FY20 and operating loss of -NZ$16.4m.

Ord Minnett considers the business model more resilient than most as its revenue is substantially underpinned by recurring software-as-a-service fees, charged annually in advance.

However, disruptions could affect the business, particularly in some parts of the US, and may impede sales activity for the year ahead.

The capital raising is ensuring the balance sheet is in good shape, nevertheless, and the broker upgrades to Hold from Lighten. Target is reduced to $1.47 from $1.62.

Target price is $1.47 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: $0.19
If VHT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VRT as Buy (1) -

Vertus Health will resume domestic IVF services on April 27. Operations will ramp up while the company deploys additional telehealth and COVID-19 screening protocols.

In Australia, cycle growth is expected to return in May-June but UBS is cautious about sector growth in FY21 given rising unemployment. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $4.45 from $4.90.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $2.93 Difference: $1.52
If VRT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WAF as Outperform (1) -

West African Resources' Sanbrado development was completed ten weeks ahead of schedule in the March quarter and -$20m under budget, with gold produced in the month of March.

Sanbrado's ramp-up is important, the broker notes, to deliver on cash flow forecasts, and the virus may yet have an impact.

With production now underway, the broker adjusts its valuation to be in line with other West Africa producers. Target rises to 90c from 65c, Outperform retained.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.3
If WAF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources