Australian Broker Call

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November 19, 2018

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
CWY - CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
GEM - G8 EDUCATION Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Macquarie
Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight Morgan Stanley
AGL  AGL ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $18.40

Citi rates AGL as Buy (1) -

Under pressure from the Federal Government, AGL has announced an extension of its customer loyalty program, which could see some customers receive an automatic discount of up to -10%. Citi analysts point out the incremental number of benefiting customers from the announcement is likely quite small.

All in all, Citi analysts believe the bottom line impact will be minor, and definitely smaller than investors would have feared. Citi had upgraded its rating to Buy on Friday. That rating is hereby reiterated. Target price $20.27.

Target price is $20.27 Current Price is $18.40 Difference: $1.87
If AGL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.63, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 117.00 cents and EPS of 164.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 156.8, implying annual growth of -35.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 128.00 cents and EPS of 166.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 158.6, implying annual growth of 1.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 120.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates AGL as Underweight (5) -

The analysts note AGL has announced discounts of -5-10% for customers on standing offers for a year or more. The new price structure reduces overall price transparency and, of course, has been triggered by pressure from the Federal Government.

No changes made to Underweight rating and $19.44 price target. The analysts estimate the move will have an impact on AGL's prospective FY19 EPS of less than -1%. They observe management has not changed guidance. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $19.44 Current Price is $18.40 Difference: $1.04
If AGL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.63, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 119.00 cents and EPS of 158.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 156.8, implying annual growth of -35.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 109.00 cents and EPS of 145.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 158.6, implying annual growth of 1.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 120.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AQG  ALACER GOLD CORP

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $2.30

Credit Suisse rates AQG as Outperform (1) -

Following a site visit to the company's Copler project Credit Suisse notes the project was delivered -11% under budget and on schedule. The conservative ramp-up guidance appears readily achievable and likely to be exceeded the broker believes.

Cakmaktepe is now fully permitted and mining has commenced. Further upside catalysts include sulphide ramp-up performance with transition from cash consumption to strong free cash generation. The broker does not include value for Ardic but notes potential for this discovery to materially add to resources, reserves, production and value.

Outperform and $5.30 target retained.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $2.30 Difference: $3
If AQG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 130% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.96, suggesting upside of 72.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.02 cents and EPS of minus 1.62 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 141.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 67.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.81 cents and EPS of 52.88 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.0, implying annual growth of 811.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BKL  BLACKMORES LIMITED

Health & Nutrition

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Overnight Price: $132.22

Credit Suisse rates BKL as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse notes Blackmores is making progress in China, as the business is growing sales, with the company's main challenge being brand awareness. The China regulatory system now seems more benign than originally thought and the broker expects minimal changes to Blackmores' main channel in China.

While the broker assumes healthy growth in the region, it notes investors should be cautious about group level margin expansion. The broker believes the company would be best to re-invest margin rather than over-deliver on profit and dividends. 

The Neutral rating and $115 target price are unchanged, but the broker emphasises that its earnings growth predictions are much more conservative than consensus over the medium term.

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $132.22 Difference: minus $17.22 (current price is over target).
If BKL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $113.00, suggesting downside of -14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 350.00 cents and EPS of 460.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 448.5, implying annual growth of 10.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 337.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.5.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 380.00 cents and EPS of 501.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 506.3, implying annual growth of 12.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 381.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGC  COSTA GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $6.97

Morgans rates CGC as Hold (3) -

Costa Group has signed a conditional agreement to acquire the farming operations of Nangiloc Colignan Farms. CK Life Sciences will acquire NCF for $50m and enter into a 20-year lease of the farm to Costa Group.

Morgans is forecasting the deal to be 3% EPS accretive in FY23. The broker's FY19/20/21 NPAT forecasts have been raised 0.1%, 2.9% and 2.7% respectively, and Morgans continues to see lower upside risk to FY19 guidance.

Hold rating maintained. Target is raised to $7.21 from $7.03.

Target price is $7.21 Current Price is $6.97 Difference: $0.24
If CGC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.65, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.6, implying annual growth of -18.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.6, implying annual growth of 14.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates CGC as Hold (3) -

The company has agreed to acquire the farming operations of Nangiloc Colignan Farm, a grower of citrus fruit and grapes located in the Sunraysia district of north-western Victoria, and Ord Minnett analysts are taking this as more evidence Costa Group's growth strategy remains on track.

Estimates have been lifted by 2% for both FY19 and FY20, and by 3% for FY21. Target price falls to $7.05 from $7.43. Hold rating retained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $7.05 Current Price is $6.97 Difference: $0.08
If CGC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.65, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.6, implying annual growth of -18.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.6, implying annual growth of 14.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates CGC as Buy (1) -

Costa Group has entered into a long term lease arrangement with Victorian citrus and table/wine grape farm Nangiloc Colignan. The broker expects the deal to be immediately accretive and offer significant upside over time through the maturation of the citrus crop, the conversion of wine grape land to citrus and the introduction of Costa's own farming IP.

The broker is yet to account for the acquisition in forecasts but already estimates 17% compound earnings growth over three years from growth opportunities here and in China. Buy and $8.20 target retained.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $6.97 Difference: $1.23
If CGC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.65, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.6, implying annual growth of -18.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.6, implying annual growth of 14.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CWY  CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers

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Overnight Price: $1.86

Credit Suisse rates CWY as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Ahead of the company's investor day on 22 November, Credit Suisse upgrades to Outperform from Neutral and raises the target price to $2.05 from $1.90. The broker expects an upbeat presentation on the growth potential, operational gearing and Toxfree integration progress.

The broker has trimmed its FY19 earnings estimate by -2% on a higher D&A forecast and raised FY21 forecast by 13% on higher medium-term revenue growth and the benefit of operational gearing.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.86 Difference: $0.19
If CWY meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.01, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 3.45 cents and EPS of 6.89 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.4, implying annual growth of 14.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.1.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 4.07 cents and EPS of 8.13 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of 18.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FLT  FLIGHT CENTRE LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism

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Overnight Price: $45.89

Morgan Stanley rates FLT as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley has conducted additional research which seems to confirm Flight Centre is making significant progress in fending off online competition. This is sufficient for the broker to retain its Overweight rating. Target is $59. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $59.00 Current Price is $45.89 Difference: $13.11
If FLT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $54.47, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 175.00 cents and EPS of 293.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 294.3, implying annual growth of 13.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 177.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 197.00 cents and EPS of 329.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 325.1, implying annual growth of 10.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 195.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GEM  G8 EDUCATION LIMITED

Childcare

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Overnight Price: $2.93

Macquarie rates GEM as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie found the trading update slightly behind prior guidance, but the good news came through via improving occupancy trends. The analysts believe industry conditions are to remain tough, predominantly because of surplus supply, but they fully acknowledge there appears now mounting evidence of stabilising occupancy.

The latter suggests earnings may have bottomed across the industry. Macquarie upgrades to Outperform from Neutral, seeing further re-rating potential. Price target jumps to $3.15 from $2.08.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.93 Difference: $0.22
If GEM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.86, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.50 cents and EPS of 17.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of -7.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.80 cents and EPS of 19.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of 15.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates GEM as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

It increasingly appears occupancy across the sector has bottomed sooner than anticipated. This, argue the analysts at Morgan Stanley, means earnings are picking up quicker. This, again, diminishes the risk of a further leg down.

Morgan Stanley upgrades to Overweight from Equal-weight. Price target jumps to $3.25 from $2.30. Industry view is In-Line. Earnings estimates have been slightly reduced for 2018, but increased for 2019.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.93 Difference: $0.32
If GEM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.86, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of -7.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.50 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of 15.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates GEM as Buy (1) -

Supply will remain an issue for G8 in 2019, the broker believes, but the company's self-help initiatives are beginning to gain traction and this should more than offset a challenging operating environment. Updated 2018 earnings guidance is a little short of the broker's prior forecast but G8 has announced a target return on capital employed of 18.5% by 2022 compared to 12% in 2018 on the broker's estimate.

Increasing comfort around longer term earnings leads the broker to switch from a 75/25% price/earnings to discounted cash flow valuation model from a prior 100% price/earnings. This results in a target price increase to $3.20 from $2.55. Buy retained.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.93 Difference: $0.27
If GEM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.86, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 24.50 cents and EPS of 17.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of -7.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.70 cents and EPS of 20.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of 15.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KGN  KOGAN.COM LTD

Retailing

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Overnight Price: $2.91

UBS rates KGN as Buy (1) -

Kogan's AGM update was incrementally positive, the broker suggests, noting better revenues and margins. Costs are growing faster than revenues but this is as expected.

An acceleration in private label and partner brands in October is encouraging and suggests issues are not structural, the broker believes, but risks remain elevated and Christmas will be the key test. Buy and $5.50 target retained.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $2.91 Difference: $2.59
If KGN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 89% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.19.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.65.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LLC  LENDLEASE GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $13.27

Credit Suisse rates LLC as Outperform (1) -

At the AGM, outgoing chairman David Crawford noted the provision for the underperforming Engineering Construction projects announced last week is "conservative". Credit Suisse was disappointed there was not more detail on the nature of the engineering challenges.

The broker views an exit from Engineering via a sale or de-merger to be the best option as shares are still discounting an additional $2bn cost over-run on engineering projects.

Outperform and $16.20 target retained.

Target price is $16.20 Current Price is $13.27 Difference: $2.93
If LLC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.75, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 39.36 cents and EPS of 87.56 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.8, implying annual growth of -41.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 77.29 cents and EPS of 148.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 137.8, implying annual growth of 70.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates LLC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley found the AGM update was a net positive with additional disclosure on underperforming Engineering projects, reconfirmation of projected sale proceeds and capacity to complete buyback all cited. But the analysts also acknowledge provisions for new engineering projects could temper re-rate with some investors fearing further losses from that one troubled division.

The analysts remain of the view share price weakness post the Engineering disappointment has been overdone. They note the balance sheet remains intact. The current share price is seen as an attractive entry point, ahead of a re-rating for the share price sometime over the next twelve months.

Overweight rating retained. Industry view is Cautious. Price target remains $17.95.

Target price is $17.95 Current Price is $13.27 Difference: $4.68
If LLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.75, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 86.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.8, implying annual growth of -41.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 73.00 cents and EPS of 144.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 137.8, implying annual growth of 70.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates LLC as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett has taken the view Lendlease shares might benefit from firm comments provided at the AGM. The broker believes the shares are trading at an attractive level. Accumulate rating retained. Price target $15.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $13.27 Difference: $1.73
If LLC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.75, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 51.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.8, implying annual growth of -41.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 116.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 137.8, implying annual growth of 70.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LNK  LINK ADMINISTRATION HOLDINGS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $7.21

Credit Suisse rates LNK as Neutral (3) -

The company provided a trading update at its AGM showing operating trends were mixed. Credit Suisse viewed the update as generally negative for short-term earnings but positive over the longer term.

The key negative takeaways for the broker were lower project activity impacting Fund Administration non-recurring revenues in 1H19, REST contract renegotiation still not finalised and LAS trading conditions remain challenging given Brexit uncertainty.

Credit Suisse has downgraded FY19 earnings by -3% and upgraded FY20 by 1% and FY21 by 5%.

Neutral rating and $8.30 target maintained.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $7.21 Difference: $1.09
If LNK meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.47, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 24.28 cents and EPS of 43.94 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.7, implying annual growth of 63.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 27.24 cents and EPS of 49.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.7, implying annual growth of -6.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates LNK as No Rating (-1) -

The company's AGM update offered some negatives, including Brexit-related impact on LAS, but all-in-all, Macquarie argues the drivers in the domestic business appear to be broadly offsetting the few negatives. No changes have been made, but the analysts do acknowledge their forecast for 5% top line growth for FY19 might now carry a downward risk bias.

Macquarie rated Link Outperform, but is now under research restriction as it is also a shareholder and beneficiary of pending ownership changes at Pexa. This means it currently cannot provide a valuation either.

Current Price is $7.21. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $8.47, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 25.50 cents and EPS of 48.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.7, implying annual growth of 63.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 49.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.7, implying annual growth of -6.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates LNK as Add (1) -

At its AGM, Link Administration provided outlook commentary which guided to a mild 1H19 performance, with the drivers of this being lower non-recurring revenue in Funds Administration offsetting continuing member growth.

Management also noted Brexit uncertainty has led to delays in on-boarding clients and continues to impact market related income. Morgans has downgraded FY19 EPS forecast by -4% and FY20 forecast by -7%.

Morgans maintains an Add rating and reduces the target to $8.86 from $9.29.

Target price is $8.86 Current Price is $7.21 Difference: $1.65
If LNK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.47, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 24.80 cents and EPS of 45.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.7, implying annual growth of 63.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 26.80 cents and EPS of 49.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.7, implying annual growth of -6.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates LNK as Buy (1) -

At its AGM, Link suggests headwinds being faced in the first half driven by lower project-related activity in funds and slower transactions/revenues for LAS given Brexit uncertainty are temporary, and medium term growth drivers remain intact. Strong member growth in funds admin is persisting and client retention has improved.

LAS' financial performance remains on track and the PEXA stake has been increased to 44%, which the broker suggests offers further value upside. Brexit risks aside, the broker believes Link offers compelling value. Buy and $8.90 target retained.

Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $7.21 Difference: $1.69
If LNK meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.47, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.7, implying annual growth of 63.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 49.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.7, implying annual growth of -6.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MQG  MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $116.23

Deutsche Bank rates MQG as Hold (3) -

Macquarie has upgraded guidance for the year and Deutsche Bank points out it's because of one transaction, which is seen as a one-off. The analysts do acknowledge this is part of the business model.

Earnings estimates have been lifted by 3%, while Hold rating and $115 price target have been left untouched.

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $116.23 Difference: minus $1.23 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $128.17, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 856.5, implying annual growth of 13.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 578.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 899.1, implying annual growth of 5.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 604.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley continues to believe Macquarie is in an upgrade cycle amid a favourable operating environment and unrealised gains across several businesses. Friday's upgrade to guidance, following ACCC approval for the sale of Quadrant Energy to Santos ((STO)) is yet another example supporting the thesis.

Despite more challenging conditions for equity market-facing businesses, the analysts continue to hold the view there is limited risk to consensus estimates in the near-term. The broker's forecast is for 14% growth in FY19 versus upgraded guidance for 15% growth.

Overweight rating retained. In-Line sector view; $133 price target. No changes made to forecasts.

Target price is $133.00 Current Price is $116.23 Difference: $16.77
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $128.17, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 599.00 cents and EPS of 846.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 856.5, implying annual growth of 13.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 578.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 633.00 cents and EPS of 888.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 899.1, implying annual growth of 5.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 604.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates MQG as Add (1) -

The ACCC has approved the sale of Quadrant Energy to Santos ((STO)) and as a result Macquarie Group has revised its FY19 guidance of 10% NPAT growth up to 15% NPAT growth.

Morgans has made minor changes to its EPS forecasts, lifting FY19/20 forecasts by 1-2%.

The broker continues to like the stock given its exposure to long-term growth areas such as infrastructure and renewables, and although the valuation is becoming stretched retains an Add rating. Target price raised to $132.20 from $131.80.

Target price is $132.20 Current Price is $116.23 Difference: $15.97
If MQG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $128.17, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 610.00 cents and EPS of 853.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 856.5, implying annual growth of 13.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 578.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 645.00 cents and EPS of 914.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 899.1, implying annual growth of 5.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 604.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates MQG as Accumulate (2) -

Macquarie has upgraded its guidance for FY19 now the sale of Quadrant Energy to Santos ((STO) has received ACCC approval, and Ord Minnett analysts note they already were positioned for 13% growth instead of the previously guided 10% (Macquarie has now guided for 15% EPS growth).

While pointing out there is potential for consensus forecasts rising on the back of the announcement, Ord Minnett retains an Accumulate rating and $132 price target.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $132.00 Current Price is $116.23 Difference: $15.77
If MQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $128.17, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 565.00 cents and EPS of 859.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 856.5, implying annual growth of 13.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 578.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 585.00 cents and EPS of 884.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 899.1, implying annual growth of 5.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 604.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MYR  MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED

Household & Personal Products

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Overnight Price: $0.41

Deutsche Bank rates MYR as Sell (5) -

Sell rating and $0.36 price target retained as Myer had to fess up to badly leaked sales numbers for its Q1. According to the ASX-enforced update, 1Q19 sales declined -4.8% on a total basis or -4.3% on a LFL basis. Online sales grew 3.6%. On the broker's estimates, online sales represented 7.5% of group sales compared with circa 6.9% in the pcp.

Target price is $0.36 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If MYR meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.38, suggesting downside of -6.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.5, implying annual growth of -2.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates MYR as Lighten (4) -

Myer's ASX-enforced market update has revealed a Q1 sales decline of -4.8%. The analysts highlight the loss for the quarter was actually lower than in previous years.

Ord Minnett continues to believe operating risks are rising. Lighten rating retained. Target price drops to 40c from 43c.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If MYR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.38, suggesting downside of -6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.5, implying annual growth of -2.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MYX  MAYNE PHARMA GROUP LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences

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Overnight Price: $1.05

Macquarie rates MYX as Initiation of coverage with Underperform (5) -

Macquarie has initiated coverage with an Underperform rating and $1.05 price target, as fresh forecasts sit below market consensus, making current multiples look elevated.

The analysts do think there are opportunities for growth over the medium-longer term, but near term they believe risks for the generics business appear skewed to the downside.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $0
If MYX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.20, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.8, implying annual growth of 47.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OSH  OIL SEARCH LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $7.46

Macquarie rates OSH as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has updated (and upgraded) its findings post an Alaskan site tour, where conversations with US industry contacts have reinforced the positive picture for Oil Search.

The analysts also suggest PNG de-risking looks imminent with key partners Exxon and Total reportedly close to finalising a deal on further expansion and development.

Price target increases to $9.60 (up 20c). Estimates have been lifted. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $7.46 Difference: $2.14
If OSH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.10, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.82 cents and EPS of 29.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.46 cents and EPS of 46.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.3, implying annual growth of 60.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates OSH as Hold (3) -

Oil Search has signed a memorandum of understanding for the development of the Papua LNG Expansion Project and Ord Minnett points out, short term, there is now increased risk of (say) a six-month delay, but the analysts also believe such a delay would not have a material impact on valuation for the project given its long-dated nature.

Hold rating retained, alongside an unchanged $9.10 price target. Ord Minnett also notes the expansion project represents about 27% of its Oil Search valuation.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $7.46 Difference: $1.64
If OSH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.10, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.87 cents and EPS of 34.38 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 34.38 cents and EPS of 70.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.3, implying annual growth of 60.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WPL  WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $32.49

Credit Suisse rates WPL as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse has revised its Petroleum Resource Rent Tax assumptions for the company's assets and is of the view that it may have overestimated the long-term liability at existing assets. The broker believes Pluto, Wheatstone and NWS are unlikely to ever pay any PRRT over their lives under the broker's base-case valuation assumptions.

The broker now wonders if there will be a re-rate of WPL on the basis that many external valuations have been overestimating PRRT for some time.

Target price is raised to $43.42 from $40.50 and Outperform retained.

Target price is $43.42 Current Price is $32.49 Difference: $10.93
If WPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.92, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 173.99 cents and EPS of 220.48 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 210.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 175.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 209.86 cents and EPS of 262.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 282.9, implying annual growth of 34.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 223.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Broker New Target Prev Target Change
CGC COSTA GROUP Morgans 7.21 7.03 2.56%
Ord Minnett 7.05 7.43 -5.11%
CWY CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT Credit Suisse 2.05 1.90 7.89%
GEM G8 EDUCATION Macquarie 3.15 2.08 51.44%
Morgan Stanley 3.25 2.30 41.30%
UBS 3.20 2.55 25.49%
LNK LINK ADMINISTRATION Macquarie N/A 8.70 -100.00%
Morgans 8.86 9.29 -4.63%
MQG MACQUARIE GROUP Morgans 132.20 131.80 0.30%
MYR MYER Ord Minnett 0.40 0.43 -6.98%
OSH OIL SEARCH Macquarie 9.60 9.40 2.13%
WPL WOODSIDE PETROLEUM Credit Suisse 43.42 40.50 7.21%
Summaries
AGL AGL ENERGY Buy - Citi Overnight Price $18.40
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $18.40
AQG ALACER GOLD Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.30
BKL BLACKMORES Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $132.22
CGC COSTA GROUP Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $6.97
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $6.97
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $6.97
CWY CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $1.86
FLT FLIGHT CENTRE Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $45.89
GEM G8 EDUCATION Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.93
Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.93
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $2.93
KGN KOGAN.COM Buy - UBS Overnight Price $2.91
LLC LENDLEASE Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $13.27
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $13.27
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $13.27
LNK LINK ADMINISTRATION Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $7.21
No Rating - Macquarie Overnight Price $7.21
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $7.21
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $7.21
MQG MACQUARIE GROUP Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $116.23
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $116.23
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $116.23
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $116.23
MYR MYER Sell - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $0.41
Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $0.41
MYX MAYNE PHARMA GROUP Initiation of coverage with Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.05
OSH OIL SEARCH Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $7.46
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $7.46
WPL WOODSIDE PETROLEUM Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $32.49
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

17

2. Accumulate

2

3. Hold

6

4. Reduce

1

5. Sell

3

Monday 19 November 2018

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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.