Australian Broker Call

Citi rates A2M as Sell (5) -

After reviewing the Chinese company Feihe's recent results, Citi feels competition is likely to continue to increase for foreign infant milk formula (IMF) players like The a2 Milk Company. Expansion of market share of Chinese brands is considered likely to weigh. 

The broker maintains a Sell rating given the above concerns and pricing may come under further pressure as resellers could start to discount as inventory moves closer to expiry, putting further pressure on reseller margins.

Additionally, the analyst highlights ongoing pressures on birth rates make growth challenging and geopolitical tensions may ultimately restrict inventory flow. The target price remains at $7.15.

Target price is $7.15 Current Price is $8.43 Difference: minus $1.28 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.20, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AFG as Outperform (1) -

Australian Finance Group performance is driven by mortgage activity, assesses Macquarie, even as earnings are impacted by the settlement mix.

The broker expects the impact of the mix to be positive in the second half and beyond for the group's earnings with the near-term impact driven by an increase in the group's white label and securitisation activity.

Australian Finance Group's home loan lodgements were more than $1.5bn during the September and December quarter, up versus $1.1bn in the June quarter. The broker thinks lodgement trends support the outlook for the group's earnings.

Outperform and target of $3.06 are retained. 

Target price is $3.06 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: $0.53
If AFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 16.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALD as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes Ampol's shares underperformed the ASX200 by circa -18% year to date in 2021 led by a slower earnings recovery, refinery review and supply contract risks.

While the government's support for Lytton is likely increasing, Ampol seems incentivised to announce the closure of Lytton & import terminal conversion with a final exit from refining likely to drive multiple re-rating in the broker's view.

Target price drops to $31.50 from $34.50. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $31.50 Current Price is $24.22 Difference: $7.28
If ALD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.97, suggesting upside of 18.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BAP as Overweight (1) -

Bapcor has announced the acquisition of a 25% stake in Tye Soon, listed in Singapore. Morgan Stanley expects an immaterial contribution in the short term but considers strategically there may be several benefits.

Currently the Tye Soon business is a wholesaler and distributor of parts through 20 locations and there is scope to scale this as well as a market position in Malaysia and South Korea.

Overweight retained. Target is $9.50. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $7.44 Difference: $2.06
If BAP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.92, suggesting upside of 21.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BAP as Buy (1) -

Bapcor has further extended its reach into Asia with a 25% stake in Tye Soon, which distributes automotive parts in a number of Asian markets.

The investment adds to Bapcor’s existing operations in Thailand and represents a modest upfront investment to secure access to a number of large and growing Asian countries, the broker notes.

Buy and $9.20 target retained.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $7.44 Difference: $1.76
If BAP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.92, suggesting upside of 21.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BKW as Buy (1) -

In a preview of 1H results on March 25, Citi forecasts underlying profit (NPAT) will decline -57% on the pcp, largely reflecting property revaluations booked in the prior period which are not expected to repeat. Declines in investment and US brick earnings are also expected to weigh.

The broker highlights the current strength in detached housing bodes well for the domestic bricks business while the outlook for the US business remains challenging given the structural headwinds in commercial spending. Buy rating and $22.70 target.

Target price is $22.70 Current Price is $18.63 Difference: $4.07
If BKW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.75, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BPT as Neutral (3) -

The Artisan-1 exploration well in the offshore Victorian Otway basin has sucessfully discovered gas though at the low-end of the company's pre-drill expectations.

After reducing forecast recoverable gas and increasing the project risk weighting, the broker retains a Neutral rating and lifts the target to $1.81 from $1.75. The analyst remains unconvinced that the company's five year free cash flow guidance can be achieved.

Target price is $1.81 Current Price is $1.75 Difference: $0.06
If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.01, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BPT as Equal-weight (3) -

Beach Energy has found gas at its Artisan exploration well, described as at the lower end of pre-drill expectations, while Morgan Stanley notes pre-drill expectations were not disclosed.

Hence, the broker questions whether Artisan will be developed and Enterprise discovery, along with successful development at Thylacine and Geographe yields, will increase gas production to the Otway plant.

The broker factors in an uplift to Otway gas production in line with guidance out to 2025 and then Beach Energy will need to find more gas to keep the plant full.

Equal-weight retained. Target is $1.90. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.75 Difference: $0.15
If BPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.01, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BPT as Add (1) -

The commodities team at Morgans upgrades oil price forecasts for the sector for 2021-2023 following a surprise move from OPEC to maintain supply cuts in April and the ongoing recovery of oil market fundamentals.

The broker believes supply is poorly positioned to absorb 'lost barrels' due to the damage incurred by two once-in-a-decade oil price downturns in the last five years.

The analysts upgrade price forecasts for 2021-23 to US$63/bbl, US$60/bbl and US$60/bbl from US$56/bbl, US$55/bbl and US$56/bbl, respectively.

The broker notes Beach Energy has been sold off on Western Flank underperformance though downside appears limited from here. The company is considered to have a superior diversification and earnings profile. Add rating and target increases to $2.25 from $2.16.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.75 Difference: $0.5
If BPT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.01, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BPT as Buy (1) -

Beach Energy has announced the discovery of gas in the Otway Basin, offshore Victoria. With the Otway Gas Plant expected to be full from FY23 to FY25, the development plans for the Artisan field have not yet been outlined, the broker notes.

The discovery nevertheless provides Beach with optionality to direct future gas production from the Artisan-1 well to the Otway plant
via its existing offshore pipeline infrastructure. The broker retains Buy, target rises to $2.20 from $2.10.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.75 Difference: $0.45
If BPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.01, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BSL as Accumulate (2) -

Spreads for BlueScope Steel's North Star and Australian Steel Products divisions have risen 16% and 10% respectively since the beginning of the month. HRC prices continue to rise, but capacity is also slowly recovering, the broker notes.

Steel production curtailments in China create the potential for upside to prices while demand remains strong. Input prices for iron ore and met coal have fallen -11% and -13%, providing excellent free cash flow for BlueScope.

Current spot prices are offering material upside to the broker's forecast earnings. Accumulate retained, albeit target falls to $23 from $24.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $18.84 Difference: $4.16
If BSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.28, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BUB as Sell (5) -

After reviewing the Chinese company Feihe's recent results, Citi feels competition is likely to continue to increase for foreign infant milk formula (IMF) players like Bubs Australia. Expansion of market share of Chinese brands is considered likely to weigh. 

Covid-19 has delayed and increased uncertainty surrounding the pathway to breakeven and the broker needs evidence of a material and sustainable daigou turnaround to turn positive on the stock. Sell rating and target price of $0.35.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If BUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates COE as Add (1) -

The commodities team at Morgans upgrades oil price forecasts for the sector for 2021-2023 following a surprise move from OPEC to maintain supply cuts in April and the ongoing recovery of oil market fundamentals.

The broker believes supply is poorly positioned to absorb 'lost barrels' due to the damage incurred by two once-in-a-decade oil price downturns in the last five years.

The analysts upgrade price forecasts for 2021-23 to US$63/bbl, US$60/bbl and US$60/bbl from US$56/bbl, US$55/bbl and US$56/bbl, respectively.

The broker is disappointed by ongoing commissioning issues at Cooper Energy's flagship Sole project though the downside appears priced in and long-term value is still possible. The Add rating and $0.39 target are retained.

Target price is $0.39 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.11
If COE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.38, suggesting upside of 31.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CTP as Hold (3) -

The commodities team at Morgans upgrades oil price forecasts for the sector for 2021-2023 following a surprise move from OPEC to maintain supply cuts in April and the ongoing recovery of oil market fundamentals.

The broker believes supply is poorly positioned to absorb 'lost barrels' due to the damage incurred by two once-in-a-decade oil price downturns in the last five years.

The analysts upgrade price forecasts for 2021-23 to US$63/bbl, US$60/bbl and US$60/bbl from US$56/bbl, US$55/bbl and US$56/bbl, respectively.

Central Petroleum has a portfolio of attractive growth assets though debt has been a drag relative to the peer group, explains the broker. The Hold rating and $0.15 target are retained.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.02
If CTP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CWN as Outperform (1) -

Blackstone has made a non-binding, conditional takeover proposal at $11.85 a share. Credit Suisse believes the offer is opportunistic as the share price reflects depressed earnings from the pandemic and the risk of regulatory investigations.

No competing bidders are anticipated and the proposal is conditional on unanimous board approval.

The proposal suggests the risk of Crown Resorts losing any of its casino licenses is low, the broker suggests. Target is raised to $13.50 from $12.00. Outperform retained.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $11.97 Difference: $1.53
If CWN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.18, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CWN as Neutral (3) -

Crown Resorts received an $11.85 per share unsolicited, non-binding and indicative cash proposal from The Blackstone Group Inc which already owns a 9.99% stake in the company. The bid was at a 20% premium to Friday’s closing price of $9.86.

Macquarie notes the bid comes at a time of uncertainty but may indicate the start of the end. The broker also thinks a bid from any party should be more than 10.5x operating income multiple. The bid from Blackstone implies an FY23 operating income multiple of 9.4x.

Neutral rating with a target of $10.90.

Target price is $10.90 Current Price is $11.97 Difference: minus $1.07 (current price is over target).
If CWN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.18, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CWN as Hold (3) -

Blackstone has made a bid for Crown Resorts at $11.85, a 20% premium to Friday's close. The broker believes the price is insufficient for shareholders.

The timing appears puzzling to the broker, unless the purpose is to entice Star Entertainment ((SGR)) into the game as a potential joint venture partner (Blackstone owns near 10% of Crown) or operator of the Crown gaming assets.

This would help increase the premium ahead of the WA and Victorian Royal Commissions. Hold retained for Crown, target rises to $11.00 from $9.50.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $11.97 Difference: minus $0.97 (current price is over target).
If CWN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.18, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IAG as Resume coverage with Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse resumes coverage on Insurance Australia Group with an Outperform rating and $5.35 target. Strong premium growth is expected over coming years and margins are also expected to improve as higher rates are earned.

A strong capital position means the business is well-placed to resume higher dividends as profits recover. The broker also believes the business is conservatively provisioned for commercial lines losses.

Target price is $5.35 Current Price is $4.75 Difference: $0.6
If IAG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.53, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes the sustained heavy rain and flooding surrounding Sydney and eastern Australia could lead to a catastrophe event and add to reinsurance pricing pressure.

Feedback from all reinsurers suggests aggregate cover is proving costly and the current event adds to pressure on the July renewals, in the broker's view.

Industry view: In-line. Target is $5.10. Equal-Weight rating.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.75 Difference: $0.35
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.53, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IAG as Hold (3) -

At this stage the damage to insurers from the NSW floods appears to be manageable, the broker suggests, and likely no comparison to the past Brisbane and Newcastle floods which cost the industry billions.

Flooding is still ongoing but listed insurers have reduced their exposures to flood significantly over the years, meaning much of the loss may be self-insured or with other insurers that have cross-subsidisation in their portfolios, the broker notes.

Accumulate and $5.37 target retained for Insurance Australia Group.

Target price is $5.37 Current Price is $4.75 Difference: $0.62
If IAG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.53, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IPL as Buy (1) -

Recent rainfall along most parts of the east coast has helped to improve agricultural conditions after years of drought, while flooding has been confined to coastal regions and not the main grain production areas of NSW.

As a result, UBS believes Incitec Pivot will be supported by the strengthening outlook for fertiliser prices internationally as well as the conditions for its domestic distribution business.

Buy rating retained. Target is $2.85.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.88 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If IPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.03, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KAR as Add (1) -

The commodities team at Morgans upgrades oil price forecasts for the sector for 2021-2023 following a surprise move from OPEC to maintain supply cuts in April and the ongoing recovery of oil market fundamentals.

The broker believes supply is poorly positioned to absorb 'lost barrels' due to the damage incurred by two once-in-a-decade oil price downturns in the last five years.

The analysts upgrade price forecasts for 2021-23 to US$63/bbl, US$60/bbl and US$60/bbl from US$56/bbl, US$55/bbl and US$56/bbl, respectively.

Karoon Energy is one of the broker's key picks as the transformation into a high-margin pure-oil producer is seen as complete and there is a low-risk organic growth profile. Add rating and target price increases to $1.70 from $1.60.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.6
If KAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.63, suggesting upside of 49.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LME as Outperform (1) -

Limeade Inc has been impacted by the lack of new client contract wins, reduced upsell and elevated churn owing to covid. Reduced employment has been a headwind. 

As a software specialist in employee well-being, Macquarie expects Limeade to be a beneficiary over the medium term given organisations will likely increase their focus on employee well-being due to the pandemic.

The broker retains its Outperform rating with a target of $1.73.

Target price is $1.73 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: $0.94
If LME meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 119% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MPL as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse changes analysts and still expects strong premium growth to be underpinned by the recent turnaround in industry penetration rates.

The broker also envisages there is less risk of the premium approval process been politicised in the short term, resulting in "fair and reasonable" increases.

Credit Suisse envisages scope for both a PE re-rating and consensus earning upgrades and retains an Outperform rating and $3.25 target.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.91 Difference: $0.34
If MPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.08, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NHF as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse changes analysts and still expects stronger premium growth over coming years, supported by the turnaround in industry penetration rates which has meant increased uptake of private health insurance.

The broker considers nib Holdings a strong business, although this is already reflected in the price and, given near-term earnings uncertainty, a Neutral rating and $5.50 target are considered appropriate.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.35 Difference: $0.15
If NHF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.88, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NUF as Buy (1) -

Recent rainfall along most parts of the east coast has helped to improve agricultural conditions after years of drought, while flooding has been confined to coastal regions and not the main grain production areas of NSW.

As a result, UBS is confident agricultural conditions will support Nufarm along with the reversal of cyclical input cost pressures. Buy rating and $5.70 target retained.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $4.74 Difference: $0.96
If NUF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.20, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates OSH as Hold (3) -

The commodities team at Morgans upgrades oil price forecasts for the sector for 2021-2023 following a surprise move from OPEC to maintain supply cuts in April and the ongoing recovery of oil market fundamentals.

The broker believes supply is poorly positioned to absorb 'lost barrels' due to the damage incurred by two once-in-a-decade oil price downturns in the last five years.

The analysts upgrade price forecasts for 2021-23 to US$63/bbl, US$60/bbl and US$60/bbl from US$56/bbl, US$55/bbl and US$56/bbl, respectively.

The broker believes Oil Search has solid oil price leverage though the share price has already recovered. As other catalysts have recently played out, it's considered any upside risk is oil-price dependent. Hold rating and target increases to $4.40 from $4.20.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.36 Difference: $0.04
If OSH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.38, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PNI as Outperform (1) -

After institutional net flows worth $1.5bn in FY20, flows accelerated back to historical levels in the first half, up 15.8%. Macquarie assesses the outlook for net flows is supported by the trend in outsourcing portfolio management in the US.

According to industry commentary, outsourcing could accelerate following a volatile 2020. Organisations currently managing funds under management internally may find achieving return targets challenging in the current environment, suggests the broker.

Outperform retained with a target of $10.11.

Target price is $10.11 Current Price is $9.07 Difference: $1.04
If PNI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.73, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates QBE as Resume coverage with Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse resumes coverage of QBE Insurance with an Outperform rating and $11.80 target. The broker believes the stock is most leveraged to hardening rates in the sector because of its bias to commercial lines.

QBE Insurance is also the only general insurer with exposure to overseas markets, which are experiencing even stronger rate increases.

Credit Suisse also notes the business has continued to improve the underlying attritional claims ratio. Earnings volatility also appears more manageable now.

Target price is $11.80 Current Price is $9.49 Difference: $2.31
If QBE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.64, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QBE as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes the sustained heavy rain and flooding surrounding Sydney and eastern Australia could lead to a catastrophe event and add to reinsurance pricing pressure.

Feedback from all reinsurers suggests aggregate cover is proving costly and the current event adds to pressure on the July renewals, in the broker's view.

Overweight rating. Target is $11. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $9.49 Difference: $1.51
If QBE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.64, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QBE as Accumulate (2) -

At this stage the damage to insurers from the NSW floods appears to be manageable, the broker suggests, and likely no comparison to the past Brisbane and Newcastle floods which cost the industry billions.

Flooding is still ongoing but listed insurers have reduced their exposures to flood significantly over the years, meaning much of the loss may be self-insured or with other insurers that have cross-subsidisation in their portfolios, the broker notes.

Accumulate and $11.00 target retained for QBE Insurance.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $9.49 Difference: $1.51
If QBE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.64, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RHC as Outperform (1) -

Reviewing Ramsay Health Care's current valuation, Macquarie highlights of Ramsay's 72 Australian hospital facilities, 55 are owned while 17 are leased. In assessing the Australian property portfolio, the broker uses the Brookfield/Healthscope transaction as the basis for analysis.

Using this, Macquarie calculates a property value of $8.4bn, implying a value of $3.5bn for the operating business. The broker also highlights the upside to the value of the Australian operating business that is not reflected in the current share price.

In general, the broker sees recent activity trends as incrementally positive, with Ramsay well-positioned for growth over the medium-longer term. 

Outperform rating with a target of $75.

Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $66.84 Difference: $8.16
If RHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $69.35, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGR as Accumulate (2) -

Blackstone has made a bid for Crown Resorts at $11.85, a 20% premium to Friday's close. The broker believes the price offered is insufficient for shareholders.

The timing appears puzzling to the broker, unless the purpose is to entice Star Entertainment into the game as a potential joint venture
partner (Blackstone owns near 10% of Crown) or operator of the Crown gaming assets.

This would help increase the premium ahead of the WA and Victorian Royal Commissions. Accumulate and $4.20 target retained  retained for Star.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.99 Difference: $0.11
If SGR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.03, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SO4 as Outperform (1) -

Salt Lake Potash announced the front-end commissioning of its sulphate of potash (SOP) project near Wiluna, Western Australia. Full load commissioning and SOP production is expected in the fourth quarter of the financial year and is in line with Macquarie's expectations.

Looking at the recent capital raise and remaining debt, Macquarie reiterates its view that Salt Lake Potash will commission and ramp up Lake Way in a strong working capital position.

Outperform rating with a target of $0.80. 

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.3
If SO4 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates STO as Add (1) -

The commodities team at Morgans upgrades oil price forecasts for the sector for 2021-2023 following a surprise move from OPEC to maintain supply cuts in April and the ongoing recovery of oil market fundamentals.

The broker believes supply is poorly positioned to absorb 'lost barrels' due to the damage incurred by two once-in-a-decade oil price downturns in the last five years.

The analysts upgrade price forecasts for 2021-23 to US$63/bbl, US$60/bbl and US$60/bbl from US$56/bbl, US$55/bbl and US$56/bbl, respectively.

The broker believes Santos is in the strongest position of large cap peers and has a similar share price correlation to oil. It's also considered to have the most diversified earnings base and has the greatest control over core assets/growth. 

The Add rating is retained and the target rises to $8.30 from $8.10. The company is one of Morgans key picks.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $7.32 Difference: $0.98
If STO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.62, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SUN as Resume coverage with Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse resumes coverage of Suncorp with an Outperform rating and $11.40 target. The broker believes the current -27% PE discount to the market is undemanding compared with the five-year average discount of -19%.

Credit Suisse envisages value from earnings growth of around 11% in FY23 as well as capital management. The continued hard cycle should drive insurance revenue growth and margins as well. Earnings predictability is considered higher than general insurer peers.

Target price is $11.40 Current Price is $9.92 Difference: $1.48
If SUN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.83, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes the sustained heavy rain and flooding surrounding Sydney and eastern Australia could lead to a catastrophe event and add to reinsurance pricing pressure.

Feedback from all reinsurers suggests aggregate cover is proving costly and the current event adds to pressure on the July renewals, in the broker's view.

Equal-weight rating. Target is $11.10. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $11.10 Current Price is $9.92 Difference: $1.18
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.83, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SUN as Hold (3) -

At this stage the damage to insurers from the NSW floods appears to be manageable, the broker suggests, and likely no comparison to the past Brisbane and Newcastle floods which cost the industry billions.

Flooding is still ongoing but listed insurers have reduced their exposures to flood significantly over the years, meaning much of the loss may be self-insured or with other insurers that have cross-subsidisation in their portfolios, the broker notes.

Hold and $12.00 target retained for Suncorp.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $9.92 Difference: $2.08
If SUN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.83, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SXY as Add (1) -

The commodities team at Morgans upgrades oil price forecasts for the sector for 2021-2023 following a surprise move from OPEC to maintain supply cuts in April and the ongoing recovery of oil market fundamentals.

The broker believes supply is poorly positioned to absorb 'lost barrels' due to the damage incurred by two once-in-a-decade oil price downturns in the last five years.

The analysts upgrade price forecasts for 2021-23 to US$63/bbl, US$60/bbl and US$60/bbl from US$56/bbl, US$55/bbl and US$56/bbl, respectively.

Senex Energy is one of the broker's key picks due to de-risked upstream gas operations, a track record for value-accretive deals and expanding free cash flow and dividends. Add rating and the target price is increased to $0.54 from $0.53. 

Target price is $0.54 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.18
If SXY meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.04, suggesting upside of 187.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SXY as Buy (1) -

Senex Energy has announced a share consolidation which has led the broker to make the resultant mathematical adjustment, ceteris paribus, to its target price. It rises to $3.90 from $0.49.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $3.54
If SXY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 983% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.04, suggesting upside of 187.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SYD as Neutral (3) -

Australia has allowed Australians to travel to New Zealand without permission and more details are expected on April 6 regarding the establishment of a travel bubble.

The pace of the travel bubble is ahead of expectations, exclaims Macquarie, which expected June as the starting month. 

The upside risk to Sydney Airport Holdings, notes Macquarie, is international travel rebounding back to a 2019 level faster than anticipated and if the airport gains some slot flexibility through the current slot review.

Neutral rating retained with a $6.32 price target.

Target price is $6.32 Current Price is $6.14 Difference: $0.18
If SYD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.21, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates TLS as Outperform (1) -

Telstra has provided more details regarding its restructure. The main news centres on the establishment of Telstra International, which will hold the subsea cable assets.

Credit Suisse suspects this decision reflects a limited overlap with domestic parts of the infrastructure company as well as potential sensitivity around selling subsea cables.

The infrastructure company will also hold all the existing debt. The timeline for the expected tower company monetisation is unchanged.

Credit Suisse retains its Outperform rating with a target of $3.85.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: $0.6
If TLS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TLS as Hold (3) -

Morgans leaves forecasts unchanged after an update to restructuring plans as there are several issues still to be worked through and further details will be released in a scheme booklet in early September. The Hold rating and $3.33 target are retained.

Telstra will legally restructure by December 2021 into four operating businesses named InfraCo Fixed, InfraCo Towers, ServCo and International.

The restructure is designed to enable the company to "better realise the value of its infrastructure assets, take advantage of potential monetisation opportunities and create additional value for shareholders".

Target price is $3.33 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: $0.08
If TLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TLS as Buy (1) -

An update on Telstra's proposed corporate restructure has the company splitting into four subsidiaries of fixed line and tower infrastructure, service and international.

Assuming shareholder acceptance at the October AGM, the first bids on towers are expected by December. The broker retains Buy and $4.05 target.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: $0.8
If TLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WPL as Add (1) -

The commodities team at Morgans upgrades oil price forecasts for the sector for 2021-2023 following a surprise move from OPEC to maintain supply cuts in April and the ongoing recovery of oil market fundamentals.

The broker believes supply is poorly positioned to absorb 'lost barrels' due to the damage incurred by two once-in-a-decade oil price downturns in the last five years.

The analysts upgrade price forecasts for 2021-23 to US$63/bbl, US$60/bbl and US$60/bbl from US$56/bbl, US$55/bbl and US$56/bbl, respectively.

Morgans feels Woodside Petroleum has high quality earnings though is challenged by potential near-term capital needs and a diminished dividend profile.  Add rating and the target rises to $29.10 from $28.10.

Target price is $29.10 Current Price is $24.72 Difference: $4.38
If WPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.72, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates XRO as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Credit Suisse welcomes the recent Planday acquisition, believing the segment has attractive metrics which complement the existing business. The strong share price rally late in 2020 disconnected the stock from fundamentals, assures the broker.

The share price has deflated since and is currently slightly below where it was mid November, Credit Suisse observes. The broker believes Planday is an attractive acquisition and, amid further positive data points, the broker suggests Xero has experienced four months of more than 20% revenue growth, based on positive industry data.

Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and the target is raised to $136 from $119.

Target price is $136.00 Current Price is $119.64 Difference: $16.36
If XRO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $108.08, suggesting downside of -10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources