Australian Broker Call

November 23, 2016

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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Last Updated: 03:39 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
AWC - ALUMINA Downgrade to Underweight from Overweight Morgan Stanley
FPH - FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE Downgrade to Hold from Buy Deutsche Bank
MGR - MIRVAC Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
MND - MONADELPHOUS GROUP Downgrade to Sell from Hold Deutsche Bank
A2M  THE A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED

Food, Beverage & Tobacco

Overnight Price: $2.11

Citi rates A2M as Sell (5) -

Citi analysts only recently joined in covering the Chinese infant formula theme and they decided there is a long term growth story to be had, but with bumps first. One such bump should announce itself in 2017. On this basis, the rating for a2 Milk was set at Sell and that's where it stays.

The company did provide a positive assessment for the first four months of the financial year at the AGM and this has forced the analysts to bump up their estimates and their price target; to $1.80 from $1.50.

While acknowledging management is handling the business well, Citi analysts cannot help but warning investors there are risks ahead, including a court case with Lion Nathan. Special note: shareholders should see their first dividend in FY18 on Citi's revised projections.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting downside of -18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 2.80 cents and EPS of 9.05 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.9, implying annual growth of 30.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates A2M as Outperform (1) -

Infant formula sales for October rose to an estimated NZ$30m, compared with an average NZ$23m in the July-September quarter. While some caution is warranted in extrapolating revenue, Credit Suisse was impressed by the EBITDA margin achieved.

The broker observes the company now has the luxury to lower prices and drive more market share gains or maintain its margin on present volumes. The broker maintains a Outperform rating and revises the target up to NZ$2.57 from NZ$2.28.

Current Price is $2.11. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting downside of -18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.9, implying annual growth of 30.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates A2M as Neutral (3) -

The company has delivered a strong trading update, with encouraging data from China. UBS has not changed its expectations for first half sales growth of 86%. However, the company has reported EBITDA margins of 22.9%, stronger than expected.

It remains unclear as to how significant the US losses were in this period and how significant the high-margin infant formula sales were in the lead up to the China Singles Day sales.

Therefore, UBS increases FY17 EBITDA margin estimates to 17.6% from 15.9%, but notes potential upside if the company's margins are held for the remainder of the year.

Neutral rating is maintained. Target is raised to NZ $2.45 from NZ $2.30.

Current Price is $2.11. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting downside of -18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.9.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.9, implying annual growth of 30.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AAD  ARDENT LEISURE GROUP

Consumer Services

Overnight Price: $2.04

UBS rates AAD as Neutral (3) -

The company continues to have a number of unresolved issues, including the coronal investigation into the recent tragedy at Dreamworld, safety reviews into theme parks in Queensland and the sale of the marinas division as well as the timing of the company name change to Main Event Entertainment.

UBS currently assumes Dreamworld will re-open in late December but this is dependent on the outcome of the investigation.

Should Dreamworld re-open and the marinas be divested in coming weeks, the broker believes the investor focus will turn to Main Event. Neutral retained. Target is $2.10.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.04 Difference: $0.06
If AAD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.41, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 2.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 75.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.1, implying annual growth of -13.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.5.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 6.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.5, implying annual growth of 42.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AJD  ASIA PACIFIC DATA CENTRE GROUP

Real Estate

Overnight Price: $1.45

Morgans rates AJD as Hold (3) -

Second half distribution guidance of 4.86c is in line with expectations. The portfolio was independently valued at $187m across three assets with a weighted average cap rate of 6.7%.

Morgans continues to view the stock as niche offering with high barriers to entry. A Hold rating is maintained. Target is reduced to $1.53 from $1.54.

Target price is $1.53 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $0.08
If AJD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 9.70 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.50.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.90 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.50.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APN  APN NEWS & MEDIA LIMITED

Media

Overnight Price: $2.42

Morgan Stanley rates APN as Overweight (1) -

The company has transformed to a pure radio and outdoor media company with low debt. Morgan Stanley is mindful of the dilution along the way but believes the risk/return is attractive now.

The broker believes the stock is a cheaper way to play the digital outdoor growth story compared with its peers, albeit with a higher risk. Overweight rating maintained. Industry view is Attractive. Target is reduced to $3.50 from $5.59.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $1.08
If APN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.71, suggesting upside of 50.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.3, implying annual growth of 5.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AWC  ALUMINA LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $1.72

Morgan Stanley rates AWC as Downgrade to Underweight from Overweight (5) -

Alumina prices are up 53% year-to-date and the stock is up 48%, Morgan Stanley observes. The broker now believes the value proposition is fully captured and downgrades to Underweight  from Overweight.

While there are now specific downside risks the broker is concerned about, other equities sit above Alumina Ltd in order of preference. Target is reduced to $1.55 from $1.70. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.72 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.44, suggesting downside of -15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 10.77 cents and EPS of 1.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 127.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.6.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 6.73 cents and EPS of 5.39 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.5, implying annual growth of 47.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BBG  BILLABONG INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

Consumer Durables & Apparel

Overnight Price: $1.19

Citi rates BBG as Buy (1) -

It appears guidance provided at the AGM was below Citi's forecast, so a downward adjustment has occurred. The analysts observe sales remain soft, but management remains confident about cost-outs.

Combine the cost-outs with a clean inventory and Citi anticipates a boost to profit margins in H2. This view underpins the Buy rating. Target $1.90 (unchanged).

On Citi's projections, earnings per share should jump significantly post FY17, and beyond. Shareholders should be able to welcome the return of dividends in FY18.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: $0.715
If BBG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.67, suggesting upside of 40.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1185.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 91.2.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.0, implying annual growth of 515.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates BBG as Hold (3) -

Billabong's guidance suggests some confidence that the business is stabilising. Yet Deutsche Bank is wary of factoring in a strong second half after a weak first half, especially as Christmas represents significant trading in the Asia Pacific region.

Cost savings initiatives are beginning to bear fruit, the broker observes. The company expects FY17 EBITDA to be $60-65m, but first half EBITDA to be down substantially on the prior corresponding Half..

Deutsche Bank downgrades forecasts and expects EBITDA to be below guidance, at $58.2m. Hold rating retained and target reduced to $1.10 from $1.55.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: minus $0.085 (current price is over target).
If BBG meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.67, suggesting upside of 40.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 59.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 91.2.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.0, implying annual growth of 515.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CPU  COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED

Software & Services

Overnight Price: $11.56

Morgans rates CPU as Add (1) -

Morgans takes a detailed look at the earnings trajectory over the next few years, noting numerous factors which should provide an uplift.

As interest rates globally are envisaged bottoming, the broker believes earnings pressures should begin to abate and allow management to restore growth.

The broker retains an Add rating and raises the target to $12.75 from $11.28.

Target price is $12.75 Current Price is $11.56 Difference: $1.19
If CPU meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.70, suggesting downside of -8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 55.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 62.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.0, implying annual growth of 4.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CYB  CYBG PLC

Banks

Overnight Price: $4.89

Citi rates CYB as Sell (5) -

FY16 results were in line with Citi's expectations. Net interest margin was marginally better and underlying costs were in line. IRB approval for the full bank is now expected in FY19.

The broker notes the operating environment remains dynamic, with the impact of Brexit not yet fully understood and markets remaining competitive. Citi targets a modest inaugural dividend in FY17. Sell rating and GBP2.30 target retained.

Current Price is $4.89. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.56, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 7.80 cents and EPS of 37.03 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.1, implying annual growth of 43.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates CYB as Outperform (1) -

Following the FY16 result Credit Suisse downgrades FY17 estimates by 3%. The result was essentially in line and the broker liked modest net interest margin expansion.

What the broker did not like was the softer equity Tier 1 capital ratio, affected by restructuring and pension charges. The $5.25 target and Outperform rating are retained.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.89 Difference: $0.36
If CYB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.56, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 3.71 cents and EPS of 31.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.41 cents and EPS of 42.62 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.1, implying annual growth of 43.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates CYB as Neutral (3) -

CYBG's reported earnings were well below consensus but underlying earnings beat consensus by 9%, mostly on lower impairments. The broker was nevertheless disappointed by an 11% miss on net tangible assets and a slight short-fall against CET1 capital expectations.

The broker sees positives in potential for improved cost efficiency, improved capital efficiency and consolidation. But a low NTA makes CYBG look expensive compared with peers and the stock pays no dividend at present. Neutral retained. Target rises to 270p from 265p but is unchanged at A$4.66.

Target price is $4.66 Current Price is $4.89 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If CYB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.56, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 13.23 cents and EPS of 34.01 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 96.35 cents and EPS of 43.45 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 19.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.1, implying annual growth of 43.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Morgans rates CYB as Reduce (5) -

FY16 underlying profit of GBP143m was 18% above Morgans' forecasts but the beat was from an unusually low credit impairment share and lower effective tax rate.

The broker believes the stock is overvalued and a Reduce rating is retained. Target is unchanged at $4.17.

Target price is $4.17 Current Price is $4.89 Difference: minus $0.72 (current price is over target).
If CYB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.56, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 3.71 cents and EPS of 37.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 35.21 cents and EPS of 46.32 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.1, implying annual growth of 43.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FPH  FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED

Health Care Equipment & Services

Overnight Price: $8.33

Citi rates FPH as Buy (1) -

First half results were above Citi's expectations at the profit line.The broker expects the high-quality growth from the high-flow RAC division to continue in the long-term.

While a continuation of the unwinding of the yield trade poses a risk to high multiple stocks such as these, the broker believes this is somewhat offset by the corresponding currency benefit.

Price target falls to NZ$11.00 from NZ$11.50. Buy rating retained.

Current Price is $8.33. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 18.11 cents and EPS of 26.88 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of 18.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 22.40 cents and EPS of 33.32 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.3, implying annual growth of 18.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates FPH as Neutral (3) -

First half results impressed Credit Suisse and highlight the strength of the company's business model. The broker observes this should be balanced against the tailwinds that are abating on some fronts.

Following recent weakness the stock is now trading at a level the broker believes is close to fair value. A Neutral rating is retained and the target is reduced to NZ$9.70 from NZ $10.25.

Current Price is $8.33. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 18.95 cents and EPS of 27.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of 18.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.33 cents and EPS of 32.48 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.3, implying annual growth of 18.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates FPH as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

The company delivered a strong first half result, with net profit up 26% and ahead of guidance. Deutsche Bank updates its analysis of the ongoing litigation with ResMed ((RMD)), following a detailed review of risks around the action of the International Trade Commission.

While the stock remains an attractive long-term growth story, given significant uncertainty from the litigation the broker does not believe the risk/reward balance is attractive.

Rating is downgraded to Hold  from Buy. Target is reduced to NZ$9.00 from NZ$11.30.

Current Price is $8.33. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 18.48 cents and EPS of 26.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of 18.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.33 cents and EPS of 30.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.3, implying annual growth of 18.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates FPH as Outperform (1) -

Fisher & Paykel Health's net result met the broker's expectations. Hospital growth was stronger than expected but Homecare growth was weaker than expected.

The stock has been caught up recently in the general sell-off of anything with a high PE, the broker notes, and is now trading at 25x FY17 earnings. This is still a significant premium over the market but given a double-digit growth rate and a strong market position in hospital humidification, the broker retains Outperform.

Target falls to NZ$10.25 from NZ$10.50.

Current Price is $8.33. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 18.01 cents and EPS of 27.72 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of 18.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 22.68 cents and EPS of 32.39 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.3, implying annual growth of 18.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates FPH as Neutral (3) -

First half net profit impressed UBS, rising 26%. This was driven by strong constant currency revenue growth and gross margin expansion. The broker notes it was underpinned by a superior product mix, manufacturing in Mexico and supply chain cost savings.

UBS lowers forecasts for earnings per share by 3% for FY18/FY19, because of slower constant currency revenue growth in hospital new applications and OSA masks.

The broker retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to NZ$9.50 from NZ$10.55.

Current Price is $8.33. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 18.48 cents and EPS of 26.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of 18.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 21.47 cents and EPS of 32.67 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.3, implying annual growth of 18.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FXL  FLEXIGROUP LIMITED

Diversified Financials

Overnight Price: $2.22

UPDATED

UBS rates FXL as Neutral (3) -

The company has reiterated guidance for core cash net profit of $90-97m in FY17. Trading in the first four months of FY17 has been in line with UBS expectations.

The company provided upbeat commentary on New Zealand and its recent investment in Ireland, the analysts report.

The broker likes the fact the company is taking steps to address organic growth concerns, although both these measures will need to achieve some ambitious targets in order to obtain double-digit growth in FY18.

Neutral retained. Target is $2.25.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $2.22 Difference: $0.03
If FXL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 25.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.2, implying annual growth of 73.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.50 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.9, implying annual growth of 10.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ILU  ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $6.26

Credit Suisse rates ILU as Neutral (3) -

The German anti-trust authority has approved the merger between Sierra Rutile and Iluka. Iluka expects to complete the deal by the end of the month and will provide additional material at that stage regarding the merger and integration priorities.

Credit Suisse observes global titanium dioxide markets are showing signs of recovery after a prolonged period of oversupply. Zircon has been fairly stable in the past few months, with prices holding steady, but the broker notes demand has not yet picked up and inventory overhang remains a problem.

Credit Suisse retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $6.65 from $6.40.

Target price is $6.65 Current Price is $6.26 Difference: $0.39
If ILU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.61, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1159.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.4, implying annual growth of -34.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 76.8.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 25.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of 146.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IVC  INVOCARE LIMITED

Consumer Services

Overnight Price: $13.01

Morgans rates IVC as Initiate coverage with Hold rating (3) -

The key driver of the company's earnings is the number of deaths in Australia, which has grown at an average rate of 1.0% per annum since 1988, Morgans observes.

With a growing and ageing population, the broker believes this is likely to coincide with higher mortality rates for the foreseeable future.

Morgans initiates coverage with a Hold rating, attracted to the defensive characteristics and dominant market share, and a $12.85 target.

Target price is $12.85 Current Price is $13.01 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If IVC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.88, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 49.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.5, implying annual growth of -1.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.4.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.7, implying annual growth of 8.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGR  MIRVAC GROUP

Real Estate

Overnight Price: $1.96

Credit Suisse rates MGR as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

The company's commercial asset quality has been transformed and residential risks are more than priced in, Credit Suisse observes.

The company's residential business is at an unprecedented level of earnings visibility, with pre-sales representing around 170% of development capital employed.

Mirvac is one of the few in the sector which can truly generate value, rather than simply ride the bond yield cycle, the broker believes. Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Target is steady at $2.30.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.96 Difference: $0.34
If MGR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.22, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.3, implying annual growth of -48.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.2, implying annual growth of 6.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MND  MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED

Capital Goods

Overnight Price: $11.01

Deutsche Bank rates MND as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

The company's AGM signalled slightly more positive expectations for first half revenues.

Yet the outlook for resources capital expenditure has been negative for a while and Deutsche Bank does not believe the growth projects being evaluated presently are enough to replace the role of large capital expenditure incurred over the last two years.

The broker increases FY17 forecast revenues to reflect the company's contract wins and first half guidance. The broker believes the share price appreciation is unjustified, and downgrades to Sell from Hold. Target is raised to $7.94 from $7.68.

Target price is $7.94 Current Price is $11.01 Difference: minus $3.07 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.69, suggesting downside of -29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.3, implying annual growth of -16.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.4, implying annual growth of -8.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Macquarie rates MND as Underperform (5) -

Monadelphous management warned of challenging conditions ahead in Resources and Energy at its AGM but noted a solid level of spending is still required to sustain ongoing production increases, particularly in iron ore and CSG.

But this spending is late-cycle, the broker notes, and oil & gas is set to drop off as the likes of Gorgon and Ichthys reach completion.

Unlike some peers, Monadelphous does not offer much in the way of offsetting exposure to infrastructure. Hence the broker retains Underperform and an $8.69 target.

Target price is $8.69 Current Price is $11.01 Difference: minus $2.32 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.69, suggesting downside of -29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 52.30 cents and EPS of 61.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.3, implying annual growth of -16.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 52.50 cents and EPS of 61.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.4, implying annual growth of -8.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Morgan Stanley rates MND as Underweight (5) -

The company's shares have re-rated materially since a disappointing FY16 result, Morgan Stanley observes. This premium could potentially be justified if earnings were reaching an inflection point but the broker doubts this is the case.

Earnings are envisaged to be still on a significant downtrend. The company expects first half revenue to fall around 15% and margins to remain under pressure but also notes the second half will provide easier comparables.

Morgan Stanley believes the bottom for earnings is still at least 18 months away and considers the shares materially overvalued. An Underweight rating and Cautious sector view are maintained. Target is $5.57.

Target price is $5.57 Current Price is $11.01 Difference: minus $5.44 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.69, suggesting downside of -29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.3, implying annual growth of -16.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 52.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.4, implying annual growth of -8.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NCM  NEWCREST MINING LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $20.67

Credit Suisse rates NCM as Underperform (5) -

Cadia is to be expanded to 32mtpa by 2020, in line with Credit Suisse's modelling. Lihir's December 2017 mill throughput target has been set at 14mtpa, up from 13mtpa.

Credit Suisse retains an Underperform rating and $18.20 target.

Target price is $18.20 Current Price is $20.67 Difference: minus $2.47 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.96, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 13.52 cents and EPS of 116.56 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.4, implying annual growth of 60.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 54.08 cents and EPS of 169.84 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 104.7, implying annual growth of 12.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates NCM as Lighten (4) -

The analysts returned from a Cadia gold mine site trip impressed with the automation and optimisation potential on display. It is their view management is aiming at much higher output, but they also expect the path towards more volume to be gradual rather than a near-term step change.

Target price remains at $19, which is well below the share price and easily explains why the rating is unchanged at Lighten.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $20.67 Difference: minus $1.67 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.96, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 87.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.4, implying annual growth of 60.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 104.7, implying annual growth of 12.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OSH  OIL SEARCH LIMITED

Energy

Overnight Price: $7.12

UPDATED

UBS rates OSH as Neutral (3) -

The company has pointed to the benefits of unitised LNG expansion ahead of the annual field trip to PNG. 2017 production and capital expenditure guidance were released for the first time, with 2017 production expected to be in line with 2016, but with a greater contribution from LNG.

Exploration spending is expected to rise to $200-300m in 2017 as exploration/appraisal activity is ramped up to prove up gas volumes.

UBS believes the company is performing well and, while agreeing expansion will occur, remains cautious about the prospect of further delays to PNG LNG, as ultimately Oil Search is not in control of the timeline.

A Neutral rating is retained. Target rises to $7.55 from $7.50.

Target price is $7.55 Current Price is $7.12 Difference: $0.43
If OSH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.82, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

UBS forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 5.39 cents and EPS of 10.77 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 66.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 60.9.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.77 cents and EPS of 28.27 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.7, implying annual growth of 134.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TNE  TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED

Software & Services

Overnight Price: $5.89

UPDATED

Macquarie rates TNE as Outperform (1) -

TechnologyOne's 16% profit increase in FY16 met expectations while a combination of final and special dividend represented an 8% increase, the broker notes.

Cloud revenue is providing the medium term growth driver, which offers up both considerable leverage from new products but also cloud migration risk, the broker warns. However, given the opportunity to up-sell clients to a "stickier", higher-value solution, the broker retains Outperform. Target rises to $6.30 from $5.70.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.89 Difference: $0.41
If TNE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.92, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.60 cents and EPS of 15.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of 35.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.7.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 17.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of 17.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates TNE as Hold (3) -

FY16 results were above guidance. Morgans considers the results high quality, with strong cash generation amid a positive outlook for FY17.

Nevertheless, the broker believes even great business can be a poor investment if too much is paid. Share price momentum remains strong at present but the broker believes it will eventually weaken and this will be the catalyst to exit the stock.

Hold rating is retained. Target is raised to $5.71 from $5.00.

Target price is $5.71 Current Price is $5.89 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If TNE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.92, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of 35.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.7.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of 17.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

UBS rates TNE as Neutral (3) -

FY16 net profit was up 16% and in line with UBS. Revenue grew 14%. Management expects strong profit growth in FY17, with the results weighted towards the second half.

UBS believes the result provides further evidence of the company's strong track record of growth in earnings per share. Given the benign organic growth environment facing many industrial stocks under coverage, this level of growth warrants a premium valuation, in the broker's opinion.

Yet UBS believes this is currently reflected in the share price and therefore maintains a Neutral rating. Target is raised to $5.75 from $5.65.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $5.89 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If TNE meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.92, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of 35.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.7.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of 17.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VAH  VIRGIN AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation

Overnight Price: $0.23

Deutsche Bank rates VAH as Hold (3) -

First quarter underlying pre-tax loss was $3.6m, impacted by soft domestic demand and subdued industry conditions. Deutsche Bank reduces FY17 underlying pre-tax profit estimates to $89.3m.

The broker is pleased the group has accelerated its hedging program which should provide some support for earnings. Hold rating retained. Target is reduced to $0.26 from $0.30.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.035
If VAH meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.23, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.1, implying annual growth of 57.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WEB  WEBJET LIMITED

Retailing

Overnight Price: $9.55

UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates WEB as Accumulate (2) -

Following a company briefing on B2B strategy and the announcement of a new alliance in China with Dida Travel Technology, the analysts report their confidence has increased regarding the way forward for B2B earnings.

Recent share price weakness is thus seen as a buying opportunity. Accumulate rating reiterated. Price target maintained at $12.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $9.55 Difference: $2.45
If WEB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.57, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 56.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.5, implying annual growth of 55.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.8, implying annual growth of 12.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Summaries
A2M - THE A2 MILK CO Sell - Citi Overnight Price $2.11
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.11
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $2.11
AAD - ARDENT LEISURE Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $2.04
AJD - ASIA PACIFIC DATA CENTRE Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $1.45
APN - APN NEWS & MEDIA Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.42
AWC - ALUMINA Downgrade to Underweight from Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $1.72
BBG - BILLABONG INT Buy - Citi Overnight Price $1.19
Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $1.19
CPU - COMPUTERSHARE Add - Morgans Overnight Price $11.56
CYB - CYBG Sell - Citi Overnight Price $4.89
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $4.89
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.89
Reduce - Morgans Overnight Price $4.89
FPH - FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE Buy - Citi Overnight Price $8.33
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $8.33
Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $8.33
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $8.33
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $8.33
FXL - FLEXIGROUP Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $2.22
ILU - ILUKA RESOURCES Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $6.26
IVC - INVOCARE Initiate coverage with Hold rating - Morgans Overnight Price $13.01
MGR - MIRVAC Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $1.96
MND - MONADELPHOUS GROUP Downgrade to Sell from Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $11.01
Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $11.01
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $11.01
NCM - NEWCREST MINING Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $20.67
Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $20.67
OSH - OIL SEARCH Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $7.12
TNE - TECHNOLOGY ONE Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.89
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $5.89
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $5.89
VAH - VIRGIN AUSTRALIA Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $0.23
WEB - WEBJET Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $9.55
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

9

2. Accumulate

1

3. Hold

15

4. Reduce

1

5. Sell

8

Wednesday 23 November 2016

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.