Australian Broker Call
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February 04, 2020
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| ANZ - | ANZ BANKING GROUP | Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform | Credit Suisse |
| Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight | Morgan Stanley | ||
| CBA - | COMMBANK | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral | Credit Suisse |
| FDV - | FRONTIER DIGITAL VENTURES | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
| FXL - | FLEXIGROUP | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
| HT1 - | HT&E LTD | Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform | Macquarie |
| HVN - | HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS | Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight | Morgan Stanley |
| Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS | ||
| JBH - | JB HI-FI | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | UBS |
| NCM - | NEWCREST MINING | Upgrade to Hold from Lighten | Ord Minnett |
| NHF - | NIB HOLDINGS | Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight | Morgan Stanley |
| NST - | NORTHERN STAR | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Ord Minnett |
| OSH - | OIL SEARCH | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie |
| WBC - | WESTPAC BANKING | Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight | Morgan Stanley |
| WES - | WESFARMERS | Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight | Morgan Stanley |
Overnight Price: $25.70
Credit Suisse rates ANZ as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -
Credit Suisse observes the stock has underperformed the market by -17% and the bank index by -9% over the last 12 months.
Going forward, the broker considers most of the issues are now behind the bank and there is some upside emerging.
With asset divestments still to come, a capital management story could re-emerge. Hence, the rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform. Target is unchanged a $26.
Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $25.70 Difference: $0.3
If ANZ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.63, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 219.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 205.0, implying annual growth of -2.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 157.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 233.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 211.4, implying annual growth of 3.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 154.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -
Morgan Stanley assesses the franchise is improving its performance while capital concerns have eased. Cost expectations have been re-based.
The broker believes the institutional strategy is working and the operating environment is now more promising, providing comfort on the outlook for growth and returns.
Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight and the target raised to $26.60 from $24.80. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $26.60 Current Price is $25.70 Difference: $0.9
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.63, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 197.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 205.0, implying annual growth of -2.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 157.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 144.00 cents and EPS of 197.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 211.4, implying annual growth of 3.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 154.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $84.32
Credit Suisse rates CBA as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -
Credit Suisse downgrades FY20 earnings estimates by -2% because of an increase in insurance claims. Commonwealth Bank will report its first half result on February 12.
The broker continues to like the bank but as it is trading well above an unchanged target of $77.60, believes it is priced for perfection and downgrades to Underperform from Neutral.
Target price is $77.60 Current Price is $84.32 Difference: minus $6.72 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $73.41, suggesting downside of -12.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 431.00 cents and EPS of 484.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 481.2, implying annual growth of -0.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 431.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 431.00 cents and EPS of 518.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 496.9, implying annual growth of 3.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 418.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.84
UBS rates CGC as Buy (1) -
UBS observes wholesale trends continue to improve through January and mushroom pricing was particularly pleasing.
2019 guidance remains realistic for net profit of around $28m, in the broker's view, and risks to 2020 guidance are reducing.
The broker continues to believe Costa Group should trade at a premium to listed peers although visibility over 2020 is unlikely to improve until early in the second quarter. Buy rating and $3.25 target maintained.
Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.84 Difference: $0.41
If CGC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.90, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.6, implying annual growth of -74.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.6, implying annual growth of 46.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FDV FRONTIER DIGITAL VENTURES LIMITED
Online media & mobile platforms
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Overnight Price: $1.14
Morgans rates FDV as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -
Frontier Digital Ventures' portfolio of online marketplaces continues to deliver rapid growth, Morgans notes. The December quarter saw 66% revenue growth with four portfolio components profitable and several more close to breakeven.
The company is on track to hit portfolio-wide profitability in FY20. Morgans lifts its target to $1.09 from 96c but since the stock has already run up, downgrades to Hold from Add.
Target price is $1.09 Current Price is $1.14 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If FDV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FLT FLIGHT CENTRE LIMITED
Travel, Leisure & Tourism
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Overnight Price: $39.81
Morgan Stanley rates FLT as Overweight (1) -
While there is potential for near-term disruption associated with the Australian bushfires and coronavirus, Morgan Stanley remains positive on Australian travel trends in the medium term.
Overweight reiterated. Target is raised to $45 from $43. Industry view: Cautious.
Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $39.81 Difference: $5.19
If FLT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $44.14, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 141.00 cents and EPS of 235.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 231.5, implying annual growth of -11.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 149.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 163.00 cents and EPS of 271.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 264.5, implying annual growth of 14.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 171.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FPH FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED
Medical Equipment & Devices
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Overnight Price: $23.15
UBS rates FPH as Sell (5) -
The company has released a new OSA nasal mask, Evora. This represents its first minimalist mask. A staged release will occur starting in Australasia in February.
UBS notes it takes 9-12 months for a new OSA mask to be available in all countries.
It has been over four years since the last nasal mask was released which, while faster than the last full-face mask at six years, still indicates to the broker that an aspirational three-year development phase in each category is a stretch for the company.
Sell rating and NZ$14.35 target maintained.
Current Price is $23.15. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 28.47 cents and EPS of 43.37 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 52.9. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 34.64 cents and EPS of 49.16 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.7, implying annual growth of 15.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.7. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FXL FLEXIGROUP LIMITED
Business & Consumer Credit
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Overnight Price: $1.89
Credit Suisse rates FXL as Outperform (1) -
The company's first half update has signalled Credit Suisse's FY20 forecasts are too high. FY20 cash net profit estimates are reduced by -8.6%.
At face value, a reduced FY20 total volume target is disappointing but the broker maintains estimates for growth of 8%.
The company has announced a new four-year exclusive agreement with Flight Centre ((FLT)) for its long-term interest-free product, which should contribute to a double-digit increase in cards volume over the period.
Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.00 from $2.05.
Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.89 Difference: $0.11
If FXL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.14, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of 15.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.5, implying annual growth of 11.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates FXL as Outperform (1) -
The trading update was below expectations with first half volumes below downgraded full-year targets. First half cash net profit of $34.5m was in line with forecasts.
Macquarie reduces growth expectations to reflect a more modest outlook. Target is reduced to $2.09 from $2.19. Outperform rating maintained.
Target price is $2.09 Current Price is $1.89 Difference: $0.2
If FXL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.14, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 7.20 cents and EPS of 19.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of 15.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 20.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.5, implying annual growth of 11.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates FXL as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -
FlexiGroup has pre-released a first half profit result -18% below the prior first half and -10% below Morgans' forecast. No divisional details were provided but the broker suspects changes to fee structure and significantly higher marketing costs for BNPL had something to do ith it.
The broker has been waiting to see what the company's base level of earnings might be and while more detail is needed, the broker feels this result is sustainable, with risk/reward favourable if FlexiGroup can execute on stated targets. Upgrade to Add. Target rises to $2.26 from $2.00.
Target price is $2.26 Current Price is $1.89 Difference: $0.37
If FXL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.14, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 7.70 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of 15.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 7.70 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.5, implying annual growth of 11.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates FXL as Buy (1) -
First half net profit of $34.5m was -11% below UBS estimates and FY20 net profit estimates are reduced by -13%.
Volume growth outside of the 'buy now pay later' segment was the main issue. The company expects volume will pick up in the second half.
The company has also announced a four-year agreement with Flight Centre ((FLT)) to be the exclusive provider of interest-free finance.
UBS reiterates a Buy rating and reduces the target to $2.20 from $2.30.
Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.89 Difference: $0.31
If FXL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.14, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 6.70 cents and EPS of 17.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of 15.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 20.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.5, implying annual growth of 11.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.65
Macquarie rates HT1 as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -
Macquarie continues to favour digital platforms and streaming over broadcast media, given the structural trends. The broker remains cautious nevertheless, because of HT&E's limited operating flexibility.
Rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform on valuation appeal and strength in the balance sheet. Target is raised to $1.65 from $1.55. The company will report its results on February 24.
Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.65 Difference: $0
If HT1 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.69, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.10 cents and EPS of 12.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.2, implying annual growth of 8.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.40 cents and EPS of 13.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.8, implying annual growth of 4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
HVN HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED
Consumer Electronics
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Overnight Price: $4.49
Morgan Stanley rates HVN as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -
Morgan Stanley assesses housing turnover is set to improve although underlying consumer indicators remain mixed.
As the outlook has de-risked for housing-linked retailers, the broker "neutralises" its view and upgrades to Equal-weight from Underweight.
That said, the broker believes improving prospects are significantly captured by the current stock price. Cautious industry view. Target is raised to $4.00 from $3.20.
Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.49 Difference: minus $0.49 (current price is over target).
If HVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.20, suggesting downside of -6.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.4, implying annual growth of -15.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of 2.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates HVN as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
UBS upgrades to Buy from Neutral and lifts estimates for earnings per share by 2-6%. The broker acknowledges the rating is not without risk, with housing activity unlikely to fully recover until the first half of FY21.
The more positive view is based on favourable industry feedback, particularly across consumer electronics, and a better housing outlook. Target is raised to $4.50 from $4.00.
Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.49 Difference: $0.01
If HVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.20, suggesting downside of -6.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 30.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.4, implying annual growth of -15.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 32.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of 2.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
IFL IOOF HOLDINGS LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $7.49
Citi rates IFL as Neutral (3) -
First half guidance has been downgraded and Citi reduces estimates for FY20 by -6%. A tough first half had been expected with a material drop in core profit.
The broker believes there is a significant business restructure ahead of the company, especially with around 75% of earnings now from platforms. However, acquisition synergies remain considerable.
Neutral/High Risk rating maintained. Target is reduced to $7.70 from $7.90.
Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $7.49 Difference: $0.21
If IFL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.78, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 42.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.6, implying annual growth of 463.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 54.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.3, implying annual growth of 34.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates IFL as Outperform (1) -
The company has completed the ANZ P&I acquisition. First half underlying net profit guidance is lowered to $56-58m on a continuing operations basis.
Credit Suisse reduces estimates for FY20 by -3.6% as a result. Outperform rating maintained as the broker envisages further upside. Target is $8.45.
Target price is $8.45 Current Price is $7.49 Difference: $0.96
If IFL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.78, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.6, implying annual growth of 463.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 64.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.3, implying annual growth of 34.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates IFL as Neutral (3) -
The completion of the acquisition of the ANZ P&I business has been confirmed. Synergy targets have been updated and first half earnings guidance is for underlying net profit of $56-58m for continuing operations.
Macquarie reduces estimates for earnings per share in FY20 by -8.1% and FY21 by -1.6%. Neutral rating and $8 target maintained.
Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.49 Difference: $0.51
If IFL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.78, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 39.50 cents and EPS of 43.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.6, implying annual growth of 463.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 58.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.3, implying annual growth of 34.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates IFL as Equal-weight (3) -
The company has confirmed the acquisition of ANZ P&I was completed on January 31. Synergies are better than what Morgan Stanley expected.
However, soft first half guidance is a reminder of the challenging regulatory and operating environment. The guidance update for first half underlying net profit of $56-58m is -8% below forecasts.
Equal-weight rating maintained. Target is $8. Industry view: In Line.
Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.49 Difference: $0.51
If IFL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.78, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 50.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.6, implying annual growth of 463.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 67.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.3, implying annual growth of 34.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates IFL as Sell (5) -
The first half results update was weaker than UBS anticipated. The broker always expected FY20 would be messy because of the acquisition of the ANZ P&I business and the divestments of Ord Minnett and Perennial Value Management.
Official results are due on February 18 but with continued operations expected to contribute $56-58m in underlying net profit, core operations appear to be tracking -8% below the broker's estimates.
Sell rating maintained. Target is reduced to $6.80 from $6.85.
Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $7.49 Difference: minus $0.69 (current price is over target).
If IFL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.78, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.6, implying annual growth of 463.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 59.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.3, implying annual growth of 34.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $41.08
UBS rates JBH as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -
JB Hi-Fi estimates are lifted by 3-11% for FY20-22 and the rating is upgraded to Neutral from Sell. Despite the 74% rise in the share price over the last 12 months, UBS envisages few downside catalysts.
Industry feedback is supportive of both sales and margin and there is a more positive housing outlook. Target is raised to $37.80 from $28.00.
Target price is $37.80 Current Price is $41.08 Difference: minus $3.28 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $34.74, suggesting downside of -15.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 151.00 cents and EPS of 229.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 221.4, implying annual growth of 1.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 145.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 154.00 cents and EPS of 234.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 224.1, implying annual growth of 1.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 146.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $29.22
Ord Minnett rates NCM as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -
Ord Minnett upgrades to Hold from Lighten as the shares are now trading in line with valuation. Target is steady at $30.
The broker has lifted its long-term gold price forecast to US$1500/oz or A$2027/oz, at an AUD/USD exchange rate of 0.74.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $29.22 Difference: $0.78
If NCM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.51, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 138.61 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 144.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 147.27 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.2, implying annual growth of -1.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.81
Macquarie rates NEA as Outperform (1) -
The company has revised its FY20 guidance lower largely because of churn rates. Management remains positive on the medium to longer-term outlook.
Cash burn was higher than expected but management expects a lower rate in the second half.
The trading update has raised concerns about the stickiness of the company's subscriber base and the broader competitive landscape.
Macquarie believes stronger metrics are required in the second half with a firm FY21 outlook across both Australasia and North America, to provide confidence in medium-term guidance.
Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced -10% to $3.10.
Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $1.81 Difference: $1.29
If NEA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.70, suggesting upside of 49.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -5.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.35
Morgan Stanley rates NHF as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -
The stock is nearing fair value and Morgan Stanley upgrades to Equal-weight from Underweight. That said, margins have peaked and the upgrade cycle is over.
Moreover, cyclically low claims inflation has masked the structural headwinds. A new analyst assumes primary coverage and the target is reduced to $5.45 from $5.80. Industry view: In-line.
Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $5.35 Difference: $0.1
If NHF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.75, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 19.90 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.3, implying annual growth of -10.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 21.30 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.9, implying annual growth of 8.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $13.18
Credit Suisse rates NST as Underperform (5) -
The joint venture partner at East Kundara has recommended placing Raleigh underground on care and maintenance from April as a result of significant seismic damage during January.
Credit Suisse notes Raleigh has a long seismicity history that was incorporated into its ground support regime. It was a high-grade contributor to Northern Star production aggregates but with relatively minor tonnage.
Underperform rating and $10.30 target maintained.
Target price is $10.30 Current Price is $13.18 Difference: minus $2.88 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.14, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 24.27 cents and EPS of 70.93 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.4, implying annual growth of 147.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 33.64 cents and EPS of 98.08 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.0, implying annual growth of 45.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates NST as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -
Ord Minnett downgrades to Hold from Buy as the shares are now trading in line with valuation.
The broker has lifted its long-term gold price forecast to US$1500/oz or A$2027/oz, at an AUD/USD exchange rate of 0.74.
The target is reduced to $13.00 from $13.20.
Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $13.18 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.14, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 65.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.4, implying annual growth of 147.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 105.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.0, implying annual growth of 45.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.03
Morgan Stanley rates ORE as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley incorporates the December quarter production result, which was 10% ahead of estimates. Costs, shipments and prices were in line.
The broker assumes lower costs can be achieved at Olaroz stage 2 once the project achieves steady-state production in the second half of FY23.
Equal-weight rating and In-Line industry view maintained. Target is raised to $2.85 from $2.30.
Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If ORE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.33, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.22 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 275.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $6.55
Citi rates OSH as Neutral (3) -
An agreement on fiscal terms for the P'nyang project has not been forthcoming. Papua LNG is now the sole focus. Citi notes Papua LNG will need to renegotiate its commercial terms with PNG LNG and re-engineer the downstream.
The broker questions the viability of Papua LNG, as there are 80mtpa of projects on the go that are credible, which is well beyond the amount the world needs sanctioned for some time.
Both Total and ExxonMobil have various growth options in their portfolios. Citi maintains a Neutral rating for Oil Search and reduces the target to $6.68 from $7.81.
Target price is $6.68 Current Price is $6.55 Difference: $0.13
If OSH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.90, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 29.31 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 21.66 cents and EPS of 46.49 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.7, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates OSH as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
ExxonMobil, the operator of the P'nyang joint venture, has been unable to reach an agreement with the PNG government on development of the project.
As a result, Macquarie delays expectations for the PNG LNG expansion, increases capital expenditure estimates and lowers risk weightings. Furthermore, there is a potential knock-on impact on the timing of the Papua LNG project.
Macquarie reduces the Oil Search target by -15% to $6.80 and downgrades to Neutral from Outperform.
Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $6.55 Difference: $0.25
If OSH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.90, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 13.86 cents and EPS of 32.05 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.15 cents and EPS of 35.37 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.7, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates OSH as Neutral (3) -
The PNG government has indicated that discussions with ExxonMobil over the P'nyang gas development have been terminated given an inability to agree on terms.
UBS still expects ExxonMobil, Total and Oil Search will proceed with Papua LNG but it will need to be redesigned.
The broker removes P'nyang from its valuation and reduces the target to $7.10 from $7.60. Neutral maintained.
Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $6.55 Difference: $0.55
If OSH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.90, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.42 cents and EPS of 30.29 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 11.54 cents and EPS of 23.08 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.7, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PPT PERPETUAL LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $42.87
Macquarie rates PPT as Underperform (5) -
Perpetual will acquire Trillium Asset Management, an ESG investment manager based in Boston. Perpetual intends to establish a US distribution arm to accelerate growth and support future acquisitions.
Macquarie finds the up-front consideration of US$36m before earn-outs is reasonable, although estimates earn-outs will likely mirror the up-front consideration and that would imply an acquisition multiple of around 8x operating earnings (EBITDA).
The business continues to experience net outflows and Macquarie maintains an Underperform rating. Target is raised to $37.50 from $36.00.
Target price is $37.50 Current Price is $42.87 Difference: minus $5.37 (current price is over target).
If PPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $40.56, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 220.00 cents and EPS of 231.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 231.4, implying annual growth of -7.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 205.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 235.00 cents and EPS of 246.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 257.0, implying annual growth of 11.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 234.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates PPT as Hold (3) -
Ord Minnett finds it difficult to assess the long-term merits of the acquisition of Trillium but notes that the business is focused on an attractive asset class and has a good industry reputation.
The company considers the acquisition a foothold in the US market, with plans to grow a larger business by investing in distribution. The Trillium brand name will be retained given the long track record.
Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating and raises the target to $41 from $40.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $42.87 Difference: minus $1.87 (current price is over target).
If PPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $40.56, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 232.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 231.4, implying annual growth of -7.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 205.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 253.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 257.0, implying annual growth of 11.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 234.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
QAN QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics
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Overnight Price: $6.51
Morgan Stanley rates QAN as Overweight (1) -
While there is potential for near-term disruption associated with the Australian bushfires and coronavirus, Morgan Stanley remains positive on Australian travel trends in the medium term.
Overweight reiterated. Target is $7.50. Industry view is Cautious.
Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.51 Difference: $0.99
If QAN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.42, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 59.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.2, implying annual growth of 7.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 71.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.3, implying annual growth of 17.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SSM SERVICE STREAM LIMITED
Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers
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Overnight Price: $2.74
Macquarie rates SSM as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (1) -
Macquarie initiates coverage with an Outperform rating and $3.19 target. Earnings exposure post the Comdain acquisition is increasingly towards utilities.
A full contribution from Comdain in FY20 will mean utilities contribute around 47% of Service Stream's revenues.
The broker notes robust industry data support NBN activations in the first half and the company's solid footprint increasingly ensures maintenance revenue.
Target price is $3.19 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.45
If SSM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 16.60 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 17.80 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $24.79
Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -
Morgan Stanley considers Westpac has the worst revenue outlook of the major banks with ongoing AUSTRAC uncertainty and the potential for disappointment on costs, downgrading to Underweight from Equal-weight.
Morgan Stanley also suggests there is limited capital and dividend flexibility but does not expect another capital raising unless the AUSTRAC penalty is over -$2bn.
While forecasting reported revenue to grow 1.5% in FY20, notable items are clouding underlying trends, the broker adds. Target is reduced to $23.60 from $24.50. Industry view: In Line.
Target price is $23.60 Current Price is $24.79 Difference: minus $1.19 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $26.34, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 150.00 cents and EPS of 160.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 181.5, implying annual growth of -21.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 158.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 140.00 cents and EPS of 179.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 198.2, implying annual growth of 9.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 157.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $45.05
Morgan Stanley rates WES as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -
Morgan Stanley assesses housing turnover is set to improve although underlying consumer indicators remain mixed.
As the outlook has de-risked for housing-linked retailers, the broker "neutralises" its view and upgrades to Equal-weight from Underweight.
That said, the broker believes improving prospects are significantly captured across the stock. Target is raised to $40 from $32. Cautious industry view.
Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $45.05 Difference: minus $5.05 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $36.85, suggesting downside of -18.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 151.00 cents and EPS of 134.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 165.9, implying annual growth of -3.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 149.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.2. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 152.00 cents and EPS of 136.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 172.7, implying annual growth of 4.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 154.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
| ANZ | ANZ BANKING GROUP | $25.70 | Morgan Stanley | 26.60 | 24.80 | 7.26% |
| ARF | ARENA REIT | $3.11 | Morgan Stanley | 3.15 | N/A | - |
| CQR | CHARTER HALL RETAIL | $4.78 | Morgan Stanley | 4.10 | 4.05 | 1.23% |
| EVN | EVOLUTION MINING | $3.79 | Ord Minnett | 3.90 | 3.70 | 5.41% |
| FDV | FRONTIER DIGITAL VENTURES | $1.14 | Morgans | 1.09 | 0.96 | 13.54% |
| FLT | FLIGHT CENTRE | $39.81 | Morgan Stanley | 45.00 | 43.00 | 4.65% |
| FXL | FLEXIGROUP | $1.89 | Credit Suisse | 2.00 | 2.05 | -2.44% |
| Macquarie | 2.09 | 2.19 | -4.57% | |||
| Morgans | 2.26 | 2.00 | 13.00% | |||
| UBS | 2.20 | 2.30 | -4.35% | |||
| HT1 | HT&E LTD | $1.65 | Macquarie | 1.65 | 1.55 | 6.45% |
| HVN | HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS | $4.49 | Morgan Stanley | 4.00 | 3.20 | 25.00% |
| UBS | 4.50 | 4.00 | 12.50% | |||
| IFL | IOOF HOLDINGS | $7.49 | Citi | 7.70 | 7.90 | -2.53% |
| UBS | 6.80 | 6.85 | -0.73% | |||
| JBH | JB HI-FI | $41.08 | Morgan Stanley | 37.00 | 28.00 | 32.14% |
| UBS | 37.80 | 28.00 | 35.00% | |||
| JHG | JANUS HENDERSON GROUP | $38.59 | Credit Suisse | 30.67 | 28.00 | 9.54% |
| LNK | LINK ADMINISTRATION | $6.53 | Ord Minnett | 7.14 | 7.00 | 2.00% |
| MPL | MEDIBANK PRIVATE | $3.04 | Morgan Stanley | 2.95 | 3.00 | -1.67% |
| NCM | NEWCREST MINING | $29.22 | Ord Minnett | 30.00 | 28.00 | 7.14% |
| NEA | NEARMAP | $1.81 | Macquarie | 3.10 | 3.45 | -10.14% |
| NHF | NIB HOLDINGS | $5.35 | Morgan Stanley | 5.45 | 5.80 | -6.03% |
| NST | NORTHERN STAR | $13.18 | Ord Minnett | 13.00 | 13.20 | -1.52% |
| OGC | OCEANAGOLD | $2.90 | Ord Minnett | 3.50 | 4.20 | -16.67% |
| ORE | OROCOBRE | $3.03 | Morgan Stanley | 2.85 | 2.30 | 23.91% |
| OSH | OIL SEARCH | $6.55 | Citi | 6.68 | 7.81 | -14.47% |
| Macquarie | 6.80 | 8.00 | -15.00% | |||
| UBS | 7.10 | 7.60 | -6.58% | |||
| PPT | PERPETUAL | $42.87 | Macquarie | 37.50 | 36.00 | 4.17% |
| Ord Minnett | 41.00 | 40.00 | 2.50% | |||
| RRL | REGIS RESOURCES | $4.39 | Ord Minnett | 4.20 | 4.30 | -2.33% |
| SAR | SARACEN MINERAL | $3.99 | Ord Minnett | 4.30 | 4.00 | 7.50% |
| SBM | ST BARBARA | $2.73 | Ord Minnett | 3.60 | 3.40 | 5.88% |
| SCP | SHOPPING CENTRES AUS | $2.97 | Morgan Stanley | 2.35 | N/A | - |
| SWM | SEVEN WEST MEDIA | $0.24 | Macquarie | 0.29 | 0.39 | -25.64% |
| SXL | SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA | $0.85 | Macquarie | 0.90 | 1.05 | -14.29% |
| WBC | WESTPAC BANKING | $24.79 | Morgan Stanley | 23.60 | 24.50 | -3.67% |
| WES | WESFARMERS | $45.05 | Morgan Stanley | 40.00 | 32.00 | 25.00% |
| Ord Minnett | 39.00 | 35.00 | 11.43% |
Summaries
| ANZ | ANZ BANKING GROUP | Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $25.70 |
| Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $25.70 | ||
| CBA | COMMBANK | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $84.32 |
| CGC | COSTA GROUP | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $2.84 |
| FDV | FRONTIER DIGITAL VENTURES | Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.14 |
| FLT | FLIGHT CENTRE | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $39.81 |
| FPH | FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE | Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $23.15 |
| FXL | FLEXIGROUP | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $1.89 |
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.89 | ||
| Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.89 | ||
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $1.89 | ||
| HT1 | HT&E LTD | Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.65 |
| HVN | HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS | Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $4.49 |
| Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $4.49 | ||
| IFL | IOOF HOLDINGS | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $7.49 |
| Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $7.49 | ||
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $7.49 | ||
| Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $7.49 | ||
| Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $7.49 | ||
| JBH | JB HI-FI | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $41.08 |
| NCM | NEWCREST MINING | Upgrade to Hold from Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $29.22 |
| NEA | NEARMAP | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.81 |
| NHF | NIB HOLDINGS | Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $5.35 |
| NST | NORTHERN STAR | Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $13.18 |
| Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $13.18 | ||
| ORE | OROCOBRE | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.03 |
| OSH | OIL SEARCH | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $6.55 |
| Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $6.55 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $6.55 | ||
| PPT | PERPETUAL | Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $42.87 |
| Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $42.87 | ||
| QAN | QANTAS AIRWAYS | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $6.51 |
| SSM | SERVICE STREAM | Initiation of coverage with Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.74 |
| WBC | WESTPAC BANKING | Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $24.79 |
| WES | WESFARMERS | Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $45.05 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 12 |
| 3. Hold | 17 |
| 5. Sell | 6 |
Tuesday 04 February 2020
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