Australian Broker Call

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November 29, 2022

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
BOQ - Bank of Queensland Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Credit Suisse
CCX - City Chic Collective Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight Morgan Stanley
FMG - Fortescue Metals Downgrade to Sell from Neutral Citi
NHC - New Hope Upgrade to Neutral from Sell Citi
ASX  ASX LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $72.71

Morgan Stanley rates ASX as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley anticipates ASX's intended write off of its -$250m CHESS blockchain project could raise the cost of capital as the company explores alternative options.

The broker's view is that the CHESS system will need to be replaced eventually, and ASX may face higher costs in the medium-term despite the -$15m cut to capital expenditure guidance in FY23. 

Regulators have found the CHESS replacement unsatisfactory at this point. Morgan Stanley expects these regulators may encourage more competition and impose pricing controls.

The Equal-weight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $72.00 from $80.20. Industry view: In-Line

Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $72.71 Difference: minus $0.71 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $75.86, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 243.90 cents and EPS of 271.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 269.9, implying annual growth of 2.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 244.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 253.50 cents and EPS of 281.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 281.4, implying annual growth of 4.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 254.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BOQ  BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $7.14

Credit Suisse rates BOQ as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Bank of Queensland has surprised the market with the announcement of the immediate departure of its CEO, with the bank's board feeling different leadership is required to build a stronger and more resilient bank. 

Credit Suisse noted that the bank did not disclose an earnings update alongside its announcement. The broker reads this news as a strategic pivot away from growth and towards strengthened financial resilience through increased investment.

The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target price decreases to $7.50 from $10.00.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.14 Difference: $0.36
If BOQ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.01, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY23:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 82.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.1, implying annual growth of 17.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 83.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.8, implying annual growth of -4.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates BOQ as Equal-weight (3) -

Bank of Queensland has announced the departure of its CEO, with the board believing different leadership is required. Morgan Stanley highlights this follows the departure of the bank's CFO, CRO and Head of Business Banking since mid-2021.

Morgan Stanley expects the announcement will add to investor concerns around progress of the bank's multi-year strategic transformation.

The Equal-weight rating and target price of $8.30 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $7.14 Difference: $1.16
If BOQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.01, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 84.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.1, implying annual growth of 17.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 68.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.8, implying annual growth of -4.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates BOQ as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett points to an ongoing high level of management churn, after Bank of Queensland announced the immediate departure of CEO George Frazis. The previous CFO and several divisional heads have left over recent years.

Separately, the analyst feels a period of lower loan growth and higher cost growth is in prospect as the bank builds on its risk foundations.

Management noted the first of four priority areas of focus is ‘Strengthening the Bank’, including the control environment in respect of non-financial risk.

The $8.00 target and Hold rating are unchanged.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.14 Difference: $0.86
If BOQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.01, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 76.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.1, implying annual growth of 17.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 71.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.8, implying annual growth of -4.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates BOQ as Neutral (3) -

While the Bank of Queensland share price reacted negatively to the announcement of the sudden departure of the company's ceo, UBS makes no changes to forecasts or its $8.00 target price.

The analyst feels the new ceo (when found) will likely look at current strategies and may re-evaluate (for example) the technology transformation initiatives for the core banking platform. Neutral.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.14 Difference: $0.86
If BOQ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.01, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 68.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.1, implying annual growth of 17.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Forecast for FY24:

UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 71.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.8, implying annual growth of -4.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BXB  BRAMBLES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $11.95

UBS rates BXB as Buy (1) -

After analysing stock moves within Brambles' supply chain, UBS concludes the market is overstating the risk of de-stocking upon CHEP volumes.

This de-stocking risk is not large enough to alter the broker's Buy rating. A slow down in pricing and low volume is already assumed in the near term. The $14.50 target price is unchanged.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $11.95 Difference: $2.55
If BXB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.22, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 95.88 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Forecast for FY24:

UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 107.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.7, implying annual growth of 10.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCX  CITY CHIC COLLECTIVE LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear

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Overnight Price: $0.74

Morgan Stanley rates CCX as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

City Chic Collective's first half update has come in below Morgan Stanley's expectations, as softer demand, higher promotions and cost headwinds impacted. The retailer reported a -2% year-on-year revenue decline in the first twenty weeks of the year.

While Australia New Zealand proved more resilient than Morgan Stanley had anticipated, results from North America and Europe Middle East dragged on the group. The company did highlight improving demand moving into peak trading periods. 

The rating is downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight and the target price decreases to $1.20 from $2.85. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $0.46
If CCX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.23, suggesting upside of 65.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.1, implying annual growth of -36.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of 50.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CTD  CORPORATE TRAVEL MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism

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Overnight Price: $16.53

Citi rates CTD as Neutral (3) -

In anticipation of 1H results, Citi lowers its earnings forecasts for Corporate Travel Management due to a combination of seasonality and slowing market growth.

The analyst notes market volumes in the 2Q appear to have stalled across both the US and Australia.

On the flipside, the broker is optimistic the factors holding back the Larger Corporates division can mean revert.

The target falls to $18.49 from $23.14 and the Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $18.49 Current Price is $16.53 Difference: $1.96
If CTD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.74, suggesting upside of 37.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 30.80 cents and EPS of 61.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.9, implying annual growth of 2927.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 52.90 cents and EPS of 105.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.0, implying annual growth of 61.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CWY  CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers

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Overnight Price: $2.78

Morgan Stanley rates CWY as Overweight (1) -

Cleanaway Waste Management announced a -$100m capital expenditure program through to FY26, aiming to consolidate legacy systems and automate manual processes. Morgan Stanley found the company's proposed initiatives thoughtful and detailed.

The company is targeting incremental earnings of $30m per annum from these initiatives by FY26, as well as a sustained increase on return on invested capital. Morgan Stanley feels modernisation investment is necessary for the company to keep pace with competitors.

The Overweight rating and target price of $3.08 are retained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $3.08 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $0.3
If CWY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.80 cents and EPS of 7.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.2, implying annual growth of 55.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 10.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.3, implying annual growth of 66.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates CWY as Hold (3) -

Morgans makes no changes to its outlook for operational earnings following a session held by Cleanaway Waste Management on operational excellence initiatives.

The initiatives include plant and fleet optimisation as well as investment over four years in the provision of tools, data and digitisation.

The Hold rating and $2.69 target are retained.

Target price is $2.69 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If CWY meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.20 cents and EPS of 7.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.2, implying annual growth of 55.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 9.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.3, implying annual growth of 66.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates CWY as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett's Buy rating and $3.10 target are unaffected by Cleanaway Waste Management's follow-on investor day from the first session in June.

Discussion focused largely on internal optimisation programs aimed at saving more than -$30m of incremental earnings (EBIT) from FY25/26.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $0.32
If CWY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.2, implying annual growth of 55.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.3, implying annual growth of 66.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EML  EML PAYMENTS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit

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Overnight Price: $0.63

UBS rates EML as Neutral (3) -

UBS feels the EML Payments share price was heavily oversold prior to an update at the company's AGM which revealed a mix of positives and negatives.

The broker highlights a solid start for the Gift & Incentive segment for the six weeks leading up to November 20, with gross dollar volume (GDV) rising by 30% compared to the previous corresponding period.

The General Purpose Reloadable (GPR) division represents the greatest challenge, according to the analyst, with growth restrictions for both the UK and Irish-licensed businesses.

The target falls to $0.73 from $1.15 on lower earnings forecasts and a 25% increase in the broker's sum-of-the parts discount. Neutral.

Target price is $0.73 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: $0.1
If EML meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.50.

Forecast for FY24:

UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.75.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG  FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $19.04

Citi rates FMG as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi downgrades its rating for Fortescue Metals to Sell from Neutral on valuation and because of high initial opex costs for Iron Bridge when global steel output is declining.

First magnetite production for Iron Bridge is set for the March quarter 2023. The broker points out opex will likely exceed guidance and potentially spook investors during the ramp-up phase.

The $16.70 target is unchanged.

Target price is $16.70 Current Price is $19.04 Difference: minus $2.34 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.25, suggesting downside of -21.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 137.67 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 196.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 164.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 195.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 172.4, implying annual growth of -12.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 126.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GMG  GOODMAN GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $18.91

Ord Minnett rates GMG as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett reviews Goodman Group's Development division and notes $630m of revenue has been held back to be booked to future periods, which will help smooth the company's earnings profile.

The broker points out $630m represents 65% of FY22 development revenue and this amount should ensure delivery of consistent earnings in the currently challenging economic backdrop.

The Hold rating and $20.50 target are unchanged.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $18.91 Difference: $1.59
If GMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.59, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 93.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.2, implying annual growth of -49.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 98.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.9, implying annual growth of 7.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLS  HEALIUS LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $3.03

Citi rates HLS as Neutral (3) -

A trading update by Healius revealed the year-to-date earnings (EBITDA) margin to October was 20.1%, a miss compared to the 25% expected by consensus for the 1H.

This miss highlights to the analyst the operating deleverage faced by the pathology industry due to lower covid revenue, as well as a delay in recovery of business-as-usual (BAU) volumes.

The broker lowers its FY23-25 EPS forecasts by -57%, -12% and -11%, respectively, on lower margins and after removing forecasts for the Day Hospitals division, pending its sale. The target falls to $3.40 from $3.75. Neutral.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: $0.37
If HLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.63, suggesting upside of 24.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 6.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.2, implying annual growth of -75.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.3, implying annual growth of 50.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates HLS as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse was disappointed by weak margins reported by Healius in a recent update on its first half performance, with earnings margins of 20.1% a miss on the 24.9% predicted by the broker. 

The broker attributed the margin miss to Healius being unable to normalise its cost base fast enough as covid volumes quickly declined in September. The broker predicts the company will close out the half with net profits of $14.3m, below pre-covid levels.

Credit Suisse considers fewer patients entering at the GP level the biggest issue facing Healius, combined with GP shortages and a decline in bulk billing rates. The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.20 from $3.65.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: $0.17
If HLS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.63, suggesting upside of 24.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.59 cents and EPS of 7.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.2, implying annual growth of -75.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.16 cents and EPS of 16.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.3, implying annual growth of 50.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates HLS as Equal-weight (3) -

A trading update from Healius revealed weakness in covid testing is being offset by recovery in base business pathology and imaging. Margins of 20.1%, compared to Morgan Stanley's predicted 25%, appear to be impacted by ongoing cost pressures.

The broker also expects success from the company's Sustainable Improvement Program remains some time away. 

The Equal-weight rating and target price of $3.90 are retained. Industry view In-Line.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: $0.87
If HLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.63, suggesting upside of 24.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.80 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.2, implying annual growth of -75.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.40 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.3, implying annual growth of 50.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates HLS as Add (1) -

Morgans assesses a poor performance from a trading update by Healius for the financial year up to the end of October, largely due to a -85% decline in covid testing. 

The update revealed a -64% decline in earnings (EBITDA) and an -18.3bps margin contraction, back in line with pre-covid levels. Across the base business (grew 5.8%), Pathology "grew steadily", Imaging was up 10% and Day Hospitals increased by mid/high single digits.

The broker's FY23-25 forecasts fall on lower covid testing and lower base business margin assumptions. The Target falls to $3.77 from $3.96. Add.

Target price is $3.77 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: $0.74
If HLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.63, suggesting upside of 24.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.2, implying annual growth of -75.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.3, implying annual growth of 50.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates HLS as Lighten (4) -

Following a trading update by Healius, Ord Minnett notes in-line revenue though margins missed the broker's forecast due to rising costs and a sharp fall in covid testing.

While a GP shortage and competitive pressures persist, the analyst expects the 1H of FY23 will be the nadir for margins. 

Management notes a recovery in market conditions will be required to meet its Sustainable Investment Program margin targets. No guidance was provided for FY23.

The target falls to $2.70 from $2.95 on a lower margin outlook. Lighten.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If HLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.63, suggesting upside of 24.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.2, implying annual growth of -75.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.3, implying annual growth of 50.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HVN  HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED

Consumer Electronics

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Overnight Price: $4.28

Ord Minnett rates HVN as Buy (1) -

Following last week's trading update, Ord Minnett highlights Harvey Norman continues to benefit from a robust demand environment. It's felt investors are focusing more on inventory and margins (over sales strength).

The broker upgrades its FY23 and FY24 EPS forecasts by 9% and 2%, respectively, after deferring an anticipated easing for both sales and earnings.

The target rises to $4.80 from $4.70. Buy.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.28 Difference: $0.52
If HVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 44.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.5, implying annual growth of -37.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.4, implying annual growth of -10.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MND  MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $13.57

Citi rates MND as Initiation of coverage with Sell (5) -

Citi initiates coverage of Monadelphous Group with a $12.35 target price. It's thought the company's project pipeline across Engineering and Construction (E&C) and Maintenance and Industrial Services (M&IS) will remain buoyant.

However, the broker begins with a Sell rating due to a cap on revenue from ongoing labour shortages and a near-term delay in any meaningful engineering and construction recovery.

Upside risks include a more rapid normalisation of the labour market and less severe inflationary pressure across costs and wages.

Target price is $12.35 Current Price is $13.57 Difference: minus $1.22 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.92, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 50.80 cents and EPS of 56.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.8, implying annual growth of 12.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 59.50 cents and EPS of 65.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.7, implying annual growth of 25.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHC  NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED

Coal

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Overnight Price: $5.68

Citi rates NHC as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Following a -19% share price fall in the last month, Citi upgrades its rating for New Hope to Neutral from Sell.

October quarter run-of-mine (ROM) and saleable coal production fell by -10% and -15%, respectively, on inclement weather impacts.

Management expects Qld coal production will be close to 5mtpa of saleable coal in FY25.

An on market buy-back of ordinary shares for up to $300m was announced on November 3 to commence on or after 17 November this year.

After the broker incorporates into its forecasts the New Acland Stage 3 (assumed capex of -$400m) and the 12-month $300m buyback, along with FY23 guidance, the target falls to $4.50 from $4.60.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $5.68 Difference: minus $1.18 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.38, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 182.00 cents and EPS of 202.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 32.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 229.7, implying annual growth of 94.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 158.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 28.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 2.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 129.00 cents and EPS of 142.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 22.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.9, implying annual growth of -21.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 122.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 21.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates NHC as Add (1) -

A planned three-week shutdown at Bengalla (reducing quality and price realisations temporarily) led to a 1Q earnings (EBITDA) miss versus Morgans forecast. The target is lowered to $6.80 from $7.00.

The broker feels New Hope looks too cheap with potential for 20% share price upside and a high double-digit fully franked FY23 yield. The Add rating is maintained. It's felt the market under-appreciates Acland 3 cash flows beginning in one year's time.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $5.68 Difference: $1.12
If NHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.38, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 100.00 cents and EPS of 171.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 17.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 229.7, implying annual growth of 94.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 158.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 28.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 2.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 80.00 cents and EPS of 127.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 14.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.9, implying annual growth of -21.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 122.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 21.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWH  NRW HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $2.59

Citi rates NWH as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Citi initiates coverage on NRW Holdings with a $2.90 target price. As the company is exposed to the earlier stages of the construction
cycle the company is not experiencing material delays for its pipeline, explains the analyst.

The broker highlights a solid order book and tender pipeline, a supportive infrastructure pipeline and plenty of opportunities in iron ore. Strong visibility over near-term revenue is also considered a plus.

Across the forecast period, Citi's revenue estimates are ahead of consensus due to a belief in the growth potential for the Civil segment.

The broker begins with a Buy rating.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.59 Difference: $0.31
If NWH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.83, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 13.40 cents and EPS of 25.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.6, implying annual growth of 13.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.40 cents and EPS of 27.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.9, implying annual growth of 5.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

POS  POSEIDON NICKEL LIMITED

Nickel

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Overnight Price: $0.04

Morgans rates POS as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans notes from the bankable feasability study (BFS) robust project economics for the Black Swan 1.1Mtpa mill feed. It's felt the path has been set for the company's strategy to "fill the mill", with production expected in 2024.

The broker sees a low-risk restart for producing premium nickel concentrate with low mine operating costs. Ahead of a final investment decision (FID) during the 1H of 2023, the focus is on product offtake and project financing, notes the analyst.

The Speculative Buy rating is unchanged and the target eases to 11c from 13c.

Target price is $0.11 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.069
If POS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 168% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.10.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STG  STRAKER TRANSLATIONS LIMITED

IT & Support

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Overnight Price: $1.27

Ord Minnett rates STG as Speculative Buy (1) -

As key metrics were pre-reported, 1H results for Straker Translations revealed few surprises for Ord Minnett. 

Management pointed to cost reductions over the remainder of the 2H, with the fruits being fully evident by the end of the 4Q. Revenue guidance was left unchanged.

The broker highlights gross margins are tracking above guidance. profitability is expected in the medium term and the Buy rating is maintained. The target price climbs to $1.87 from $1.78.

Target price is $1.87 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.6
If STG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 21.17.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 127.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WDS  WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $36.96

Macquarie rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie takes an initial look at today's 2023 production and capex guidance by Woodside Energy.

The broker finds the -6% miss to its ex-Sangomar production forecast is disappointing and potentially indicates some underlying weakness for the company's producing oil assets.

The production guidance was also -8% below the analyst's forecast inclusive of the Sangomar start-up in the 2H of 2023. The major Pluto turnaround for the 2Q of 2023 (the broker had estimated 2024) also impacted 2023 production guidance.

Capital expenditure guidance of US$6-6.5bn was in line with Macquarie's forecast. The $40 target price and Neutral rating are unchanged.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $36.96 Difference: $3.04
If WDS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.88, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 369.20 cents and EPS of 498.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 554.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 370.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 280.48 cents and EPS of 402.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 500.6, implying annual growth of -9.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 351.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WES  WESFARMERS LIMITED

Consumer Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $48.52

UBS rates WES as Buy (1) -

UBS remains confident the Retail divisions of Wesfarmers are well positioned for a slower consumer environment due to strong value propositions and capacity to increase market share. this pertains especially to Kmart and Bunnings.

This view follows AGM commentary, from which the broker highlights another Kmart upgrade.

The target rises to $56.00 from $55.00. Buy.

Target price is $56.00 Current Price is $48.52 Difference: $7.48
If WES meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $48.11, suggesting downside of -0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 222.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 209.3, implying annual growth of 0.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 177.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0.

Forecast for FY24:

UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 236.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 218.2, implying annual growth of 4.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 184.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
ASX ASX $72.71 Morgan Stanley 72.00 80.20 -10.22%
BOQ Bank of Queensland $7.14 Credit Suisse 7.50 10.00 -25.00%
CCX City Chic Collective $0.74 Morgan Stanley 1.20 2.85 -57.89%
CTD Corporate Travel Management $16.53 Citi 18.49 23.14 -20.10%
EML EML Payments $0.69 UBS 0.73 1.15 -36.52%
HLS Healius $2.92 Citi 3.40 3.75 -9.33%
Credit Suisse 3.20 3.65 -12.33%
Morgans 3.77 3.96 -4.80%
Ord Minnett 2.70 2.95 -8.47%
HVN Harvey Norman $4.24 Ord Minnett 4.80 4.70 2.13%
MND Monadelphous Group $13.56 Citi 12.35 12.63 -2.22%
NHC New Hope $5.57 Citi 4.50 4.60 -2.17%
Morgans 6.80 7.00 -2.86%
NWH NRW Holdings $2.65 Citi 2.90 2.75 5.45%
POS Poseidon Nickel $0.04 Morgans 0.11 0.13 -15.38%
STG Straker Translations $1.27 Ord Minnett 1.87 1.78 5.06%
WDS Woodside Energy $36.88 Macquarie 40.00 33.10 20.85%
WES Wesfarmers $48.24 UBS 56.00 55.00 1.82%
Summaries
ASX ASX Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $72.71
BOQ Bank of Queensland Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $7.14
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $7.14
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $7.14
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $7.14
BXB Brambles Buy - UBS Overnight Price $11.95
CCX City Chic Collective Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $0.74
CTD Corporate Travel Management Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $16.53
CWY Cleanaway Waste Management Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.78
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $2.78
Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.78
EML EML Payments Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $0.63
FMG Fortescue Metals Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $19.04
GMG Goodman Group Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $18.91
HLS Healius Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $3.03
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.03
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.03
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $3.03
Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.03
HVN Harvey Norman Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.28
MND Monadelphous Group Initiation of coverage with Sell - Citi Overnight Price $13.57
NHC New Hope Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - Citi Overnight Price $5.68
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $5.68
NWH NRW Holdings Initiation of coverage with Buy - Citi Overnight Price $2.59
POS Poseidon Nickel Speculative Buy - Morgans Overnight Price $0.04
STG Straker Translations Speculative Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $1.27
WDS Woodside Energy Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $36.96
WES Wesfarmers Buy - UBS Overnight Price $48.52
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

10

3. Hold

15

4. Reduce

1

5. Sell

2

Tuesday 29 November 2022

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