Australian Broker Call

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December 16, 2019

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
BPT - BEACH ENERGY Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral Macquarie
BSL - BLUESCOPE STEEL Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Macquarie
Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold Ord Minnett
MMS - MCMILLAN SHAKESPEARE Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight Morgan Stanley
NHC - NEW HOPE CORP Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform Macquarie
OGC - OCEANAGOLD Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
PLS - PILBARA MINERALS Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral Macquarie
PPH - PUSHPAY HOLDINGS Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Macquarie
PRU - PERSEUS MINING Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
RRL - REGIS RESOURCES Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
SBM - ST BARBARA Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
SIG - SIGMA HEALTHCARE Upgrade to Neutral from Sell Citi
ALG  ARDENT LEISURE GROUP

Travel, Leisure & Tourism

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Overnight Price: $1.19

Citi rates ALG as Buy (1) -

Citi is increasingly positive concerning the outlook for Main Event. Operating improvements appear to be gaining traction.

The roll-out of Main Event has resumed in FY20. The broker expects the improvement in the average customer rating should enhance the brand's image and make the company more desirable as a tenant.

Buy rating and $1.52 target maintained.

Target price is $1.52 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: $0.33
If ALG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.32, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 238.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 59.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 70.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMS  ATOMOS LIMITED

Consumer Electronics

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Overnight Price: $1.36

Morgans rates AMS as Resume coverage with Add (1) -

Following the recent $22m capital raising and acquisition of Timecode Systems, Morgans resumes coverage with an Add rating and $1.64 target ($1.58 previously).

Timecode Systems is a UK-domiciled company with strategic IP that will be implemented into the AMS product over time.

Morgans expects strong operating leverage and envisages medium-term upside to forecasts.

Target price is $1.64 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: $0.28
If AMS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 340.00.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 75.56.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT  BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $2.67

Macquarie rates BPT as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

As the share price has doubled over the last 12 months, Macquarie believes longer-term guidance, which incorporates significant upside, is now factored into the stock.

Macquarie assesses there is downside risk over the next few months and downgrades to Underperform from Neutral. Target is raised to $2.40 from $2.20.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.37, suggesting downside of -11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 25.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.8, implying annual growth of -2.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 2.60 cents and EPS of 27.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.1, implying annual growth of 9.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL  BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap

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Overnight Price: $15.55

Macquarie rates BSL as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie believes risks are receding and, from a steel perspective, envisages renewed momentum in US prices after the winter.

A partial or full resolution of the US/China trade conflict would also be a bullish development and the news of a deal is therefore an important development.

Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and the target raised to $16.50 from $14.00.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $15.55 Difference: $0.95
If BSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.93, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 84.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.2, implying annual growth of -56.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 133.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.4, implying annual growth of 35.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates BSL as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett upgrades to Accumulate from Hold and raises the target to $17 from $15. The broker's new model incorporates raw material prices aligning with mining coverage and near-term steel and scrap prices based on the forward curve.

The broker remains attracted to the company's dominant Australian market position, production growth at North Star and a strong balance sheet.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $15.55 Difference: $1.45
If BSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.93, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.2, implying annual growth of -56.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 92.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.4, implying annual growth of 35.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CHC  CHARTER HALL GROUP

REITs

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Overnight Price: $11.54

Credit Suisse rates CHC as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse believes the BP Australia and Arnott's transactions are a good outcome for Charter Hall, resulting in growth in annuity income as well as one-off transaction fees. The upgrade to guidance is also a clear positive.

The broker believes the company's ability to attract third-party capital cannot be faulted, regardless of any perceptions regarding the quality or pricing of underlying assets.

Credit Suisse retains a Neutral rating as the stock screens as fairly valued. Target is raised to $11.52 from $10.98.

Target price is $11.52 Current Price is $11.54 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If CHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.98, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.9, implying annual growth of 22.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 56.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.9, implying annual growth of -8.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CQR  CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT

REITs

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Overnight Price: $4.55

Ord Minnett rates CQR as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett expects FY20 funds from operations of 31.9c per security, up 2.2%. Earnings forecasts are upgraded by 1.0-1.5%. The broker notes a partnership managed by Charter Hall Group has acquired a 49% interest in a portfolio of 225 convenience retail properties leased to BP Australia.

Charter Hall Retail will own 30% of the partnership. The company has also sold or exchanged contracts for properties with a total price of $117m. Hold rating maintained. Target rises to $4.60 from $4.50.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.55 Difference: $0.05
If CQR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.14, suggesting downside of -9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.6, implying annual growth of 144.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of 1.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN  MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $16.98

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes the company has achieved spodumene concentrate prices for Mount Marion for the second quarter of US$520.92/t. This compares with US$608.95/t for the first quarter and is largely in line with forecasts.

Overweight rating. Target is $17.10. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $17.10 Current Price is $16.98 Difference: $0.12
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.97, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 108.00 cents and EPS of 216.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 196.2, implying annual growth of 125.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 102.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 62.60 cents and EPS of 125.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 159.6, implying annual growth of -18.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates MIN as Hold (3) -

Spodumene (6%) concentrate pricing of around US$520/t for the December quarter from Mount Marion is -14% below the US$608/t achieved in the September quarter, although in line with guidance from other operators.

Ord Minnett models a recovery in prices into 2020. Hold rating and $14.40 target maintained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $16.98 Difference: minus $2.58 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.97, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 166.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 196.2, implying annual growth of 125.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 102.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 172.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 159.6, implying annual growth of -18.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MMS  MCMILLAN SHAKESPEARE LIMITED

Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging

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Overnight Price: $13.13

Morgan Stanley rates MMS as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley downgrades to Equal-weight from Overweight. This is primarily driven by the exposure to softening conditions in consumer demand, responsible lending and corporate expenditure. The broker envisages little near-term respite.

Target is reduced to $14.80 from $17.60. In-Line sector view. The broker makes it clear there are no alarming company-specific issues but suspects there is reduced scope for re-rating.

Target price is $14.80 Current Price is $13.13 Difference: $1.67
If MMS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.51, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 63.60 cents and EPS of 97.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 104.5, implying annual growth of 35.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 73.40 cents and EPS of 113.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 118.3, implying annual growth of 13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 77.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MYX  MAYNE PHARMA GROUP LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences

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Overnight Price: $0.45

UBS rates MYX as Neutral (3) -

Mayne Pharma has completed its response to the US FDA regarding its generic NuvaRing application, although any approval is not anticipated before the second half of 2020.

Meanwhile, competitor Amneal has received approval for its EluRyng, the first generic version of NuvaRing.

UBS had incorporated a 10% market share gain for Mayne Pharma from the second half of FY21 but revises this to around 7.5% based on Amneal's announcement. This has resulted in earnings downgrades of around -6-9% over FY22-23.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $0.49 from $0.54.

Target price is $0.49 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.04
If MYX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.53, suggesting upside of 17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 450.0.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of 2200.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHC  NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED

Coal

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Overnight Price: $2.08

Macquarie rates NHC as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Macquarie considers coal a tough investment call, with downside pressure on coking coal prices partially offset by improving thermal coal prices and a soft Australian dollar.

Rating on New Hope Corp is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform. Target is reduced to $1.90 from $2.00. The reduction in the target also reflects risks around New Acland approvals.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.45, suggesting upside of 17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.30 cents and EPS of 24.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of -27.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 6.80 cents and EPS of 13.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.5, implying annual growth of -15.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OGC  OCEANAGOLD CORPORATION

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $2.79

Macquarie rates OGC as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

The expected dip in US dollar gold prices has come earlier than Macquarie expected. This is also more pronounced than forecasts indicated.

The broker is now forecasting a low for gold of US$1400/oz in mid 2020 against an improved global outlook and a strengthening US economy.

The broker downgrades to Neutral from Outperform as the new gold price forecasts mean a material downgrade to 2020 and 2021 earnings for all gold producers under coverage. Target is reduced to $2.80 from $4.80.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $0.01
If OGC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.10, suggesting upside of 47.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 1.44 cents and EPS of 5.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 1.44 cents and EPS of 6.46 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.5, implying annual growth of 312.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLS  PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $0.27

Macquarie rates PLS as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Macquarie is cautious about battery mineral stocks, given weak lithium prices, and downgrades Pilbara Minerals to Underperform from Neutral. Target is reduced to $0.21 from $0.32.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.35, suggesting upside of 30.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 16.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 18.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPH  PUSHPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED

Software & Services

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Overnight Price: $3.93

Macquarie rates PPH as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

The company has acquired Church Community Builder for US$87.5m. Macquarie expects the acquisition will provide an uplift across revenue from FY21 and beyond.

The broker finds the strategic rationale for the acquisition sound, and assesses the medium-term outlook has been de-risked.

Macquarie envisages additional value emerging in the stock and upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target increases 28% to NZ$4.61.

Current Price is $3.93. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.77, suggesting downside of -29.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.4, implying annual growth of 40.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates PPH as Buy (1) -

The company has bought Church Community Builder for US$87.5m. UBS was not surprised as the company had been looking at M&A opportunities for a while. The two companies have similar target markets and cultures. No valuation metrics were disclosed.

The acquisition will be funded by US$62.5m in debt and US$25m in cash. Target is NZ$3.75. Buy rating is under review. The broker's valuation does not include any accretion from the acquisition at this stage.

Current Price is $3.93. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.77, suggesting downside of -29.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.56 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.7.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.4, implying annual growth of 40.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PRU  PERSEUS MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $1.02

Macquarie rates PRU as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

The expected dip in US dollar gold prices has come earlier than Macquarie expected. This is also more pronounced than forecasts indicated.

The broker is now forecasting a low for gold of US$1400/oz in mid 2020 against an improved global outlook and a strengthening US economy.

The broker downgrades to Neutral from Outperform, given recent appreciation in the share price and as the new gold price forecasts mean a material downgrade to FY20 and FY21 earnings for all gold producers under coverage. Target is raised to $1.05 from $0.90.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $1.02 Difference: $0.03
If PRU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.94, suggesting downside of -7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 102.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.9, implying annual growth of 339.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.2, implying annual growth of 79.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QAN  QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $7.40

Citi rates QAN as Buy (1) -

Qantas has deferred a decision on Project Sunrise to March 2020 as it narrows down the type of aircraft, advising there would be no regulatory obstacles from the Civil Aviation Safety Authority regarding non-stop flights.

The order size, yet to be placed with the manufacturer, is expected to be 12 aircraft in total. Buy rating and $6.90 target maintained.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $7.40 Difference: minus $0.5 (current price is over target).
If QAN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.30, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 29.90 cents and EPS of 60.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.1, implying annual growth of 9.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 34.30 cents and EPS of 68.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.8, implying annual growth of 16.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RRL  REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $4.09

Macquarie rates RRL as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

The expected dip in US dollar gold prices has come earlier than Macquarie expected. This is also more pronounced than forecasts indicated.

The broker is now forecasting a low for gold of US$1400/oz in mid 2020 against an improved global outlook and a strengthening US economy.

The broker downgrades to Neutral from Outperform as the new gold price forecasts mean a material downgrade to FY20 and FY21 earnings for all gold producers under coverage. Target is reduced to $4.50 from $5.20.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.09 Difference: $0.41
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.99, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 38.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.1, implying annual growth of 30.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 32.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.2, implying annual growth of 7.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32  SOUTH32 LIMITED

Mining

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Overnight Price: $2.92

Macquarie rates S32 as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie notes the gap to major diversified resources stocks, BHP Group ((BHP)) and Rio Tinto ((RIO)), has widened. The broker envisages material downside risk for South32 largely because of weak manganese, coking coal and nickel prices.

Macquarie makes major reductions to medium-term forecasts for alumina, copper and aluminium. Underperform retained. Target is reduced to $2.20 from $2.78.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: minus $0.72 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.91, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 4.17 cents and EPS of 10.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 7.33 cents and EPS of 18.39 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.9, implying annual growth of 68.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SBM  ST BARBARA LIMITED

Gold & Silver

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $2.52

Macquarie rates SBM as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

The expected dip in US dollar gold prices has come earlier than Macquarie expected. This is also more pronounced than forecasts indicated.

The broker is now forecasting a low for gold of US$1400/oz in mid 2020 against an improved global outlook and a strengthening US economy.

The broker downgrades to Neutral from Outperform as the new gold price forecasts mean a material downgrade to FY20 and FY21 earnings for all gold producers under coverage. Target is reduced to $2.60 from $3.30.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.52 Difference: $0.08
If SBM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.95, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.0, implying annual growth of 3.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 29.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.5, implying annual growth of 26.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGM  SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Steel & Scrap

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Overnight Price: $11.23

Ord Minnett rates SGM as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett maintains a Lighten rating and $9.50 target. Following the downturn in scrap prices, the first half was loss-making.

The broker observes the situation has improved but the stock appears to be pricing in long-run margins above its assessment.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $11.23 Difference: minus $1.73 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.09, suggesting downside of -10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 280.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.9, implying annual growth of -90.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 162.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 65.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.7, implying annual growth of 750.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SIG  SIGMA HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Health & Nutrition

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Overnight Price: $0.60

Citi rates SIG as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Citi upgrades to Neutral from Sell on the back of the decline in the share price, as the company adjusts FY20 guidance to reflect the Chemist Warehouse contract.

FY20 guidance is downgraded to $46-47m, with the new contract being the only reason for the downgrade.

Citi expects investors will look through FY20 and focus on FY21, with guidance to be provided at the results in March. Target is steady at $0.65.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.05
If SIG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.54, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 1.50 cents and EPS of 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.4, implying annual growth of -63.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 2.20 cents and EPS of 2.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of 64.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates SIG as Underperform (5) -

Sigma Healthcare has downgraded FY20 operating earnings (EBITDA) guidance to $46-47m. This comes as of result of reclaiming the FMCG portion of the Chemist Warehouse contract and given the necessity to reinvest in the business.

While recognising the reinvestment has a short-term impact, the downgrade to FY20 guidance was greater than Credit Suisse expected. The broker questions whether the full $100m in savings from Project Pivot can be achieved and sustained.

Underperform rating retained. Target is reduced to $0.53 from $0.55.

Target price is $0.53 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.54, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 1.30 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 60.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.4, implying annual growth of -63.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 2.27 cents and EPS of 2.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of 64.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

UBS rates SIG as Sell (5) -

The company has revised FY20 operating earnings guidance, a -16% downgrade on prior guidance and UBS estimates.

The company has had to reinvest some of the early benefits from the re-acquisition of the Chemist Warehouse FMCG contract.

Growth is expected to accelerate in FY21 as the new contract reaches its $700-800m annualised run rate. UBS retains a Sell rating and $0.50 target.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.54, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 60.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.4, implying annual growth of -63.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.9.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of 64.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE  TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $16.67

UBS rates TWE as Buy (1) -

Wine trends have softened in the US, UBS notes, on the back of Nielsen data. Price continued to drive industry growth over the 12 weeks to November 30, with volumes down -2.1%.

Treasury Wine's performance on a three-month rolling basis continues to soften. The broker acknowledges the limitations of the data as it only covers 40-50% of the company's US business.

Still this is incrementally negative for the Americas business, albeit consistent with forecasts. UBS retains a Buy rating and a $20.50 target.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $16.67 Difference: $3.83
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.00, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 47.80 cents and EPS of 72.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.8, implying annual growth of 24.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 89.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.7, implying annual growth of 19.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
AJM ALTURA MINING $0.05 Macquarie 0.03 0.04 -25.00%
AMS ATOMOS $1.36 Morgans 1.64 1.58 3.80%
AQG ALACER GOLD $7.42 Macquarie 9.70 7.00 38.57%
AWC ALUMINA $2.43 Macquarie 1.30 1.50 -13.33%
BGL BELLEVUE GOLD $0.50 Macquarie 1.10 1.00 10.00%
BHP BHP $40.06 Macquarie 41.00 40.00 2.50%
BPT BEACH ENERGY $2.67 Macquarie 2.40 2.20 9.09%
BSL BLUESCOPE STEEL $15.55 Macquarie 16.50 14.00 17.86%
Ord Minnett 17.00 15.00 13.33%
CHC CHARTER HALL $11.54 Credit Suisse 11.52 10.98 4.92%
CIA CHAMPION IRON $2.78 Macquarie 3.10 3.00 3.33%
CQR CHARTER HALL RETAIL $4.55 Ord Minnett 4.60 4.50 2.22%
DCN DACIAN GOLD $1.47 Macquarie 1.35 1.40 -3.57%
EVN EVOLUTION MINING $3.56 Macquarie 4.20 5.60 -25.00%
FMG FORTESCUE $10.85 Macquarie 10.50 10.30 1.94%
GXY GALAXY RESOURCES $0.94 Macquarie 0.50 0.80 -37.50%
IGO INDEPENDENCE GROUP $6.30 Macquarie 7.00 7.40 -5.41%
KLL KALIUM LAKES $0.47 Macquarie 0.95 0.90 5.56%
MGX MOUNT GIBSON IRON $0.92 Macquarie 1.10 1.00 10.00%
MIN MINERAL RESOURCES $16.98 Macquarie 19.40 20.00 -3.00%
MMS MCMILLAN SHAKESPEARE $13.13 Morgan Stanley 14.80 17.60 -15.91%
MYX MAYNE PHARMA GROUP $0.45 UBS 0.49 0.54 -9.26%
NCM NEWCREST MINING $28.73 Macquarie 20.00 23.00 -13.04%
NHC NEW HOPE CORP $2.08 Macquarie 1.90 2.00 -5.00%
NST NORTHERN STAR $9.65 Macquarie 12.00 15.00 -20.00%
OGC OCEANAGOLD $2.79 Macquarie 2.80 4.80 -41.67%
ORE OROCOBRE $2.72 Macquarie 2.00 2.20 -9.09%
OZL OZ MINERALS $11.49 Macquarie 12.50 12.00 4.17%
PAN PANORAMIC RESOURCES $0.34 Macquarie 0.38 0.39 -2.56%
PLS PILBARA MINERALS $0.27 Macquarie 0.21 0.32 -34.38%
PRU PERSEUS MINING $1.02 Macquarie 1.05 0.90 16.67%
RIO RIO TINTO $102.05 Macquarie 105.00 102.00 2.94%
RRL REGIS RESOURCES $4.09 Macquarie 4.50 5.20 -13.46%
S32 SOUTH32 $2.92 Macquarie 2.20 2.40 -8.33%
SAR SARACEN MINERAL $3.05 Macquarie 3.80 4.50 -15.56%
SBM ST BARBARA $2.52 Macquarie 2.60 3.30 -21.21%
SFR SANDFIRE $6.05 Macquarie 6.00 6.40 -6.25%
SIG SIGMA HEALTHCARE $0.60 Credit Suisse 0.53 0.55 -3.64%
WAF WEST AFRICAN RESOURCES $0.39 Macquarie 0.65 0.60 8.33%
Summaries
ALG ARDENT LEISURE Buy - Citi Overnight Price $1.19
AMS ATOMOS Resume coverage with Add - Morgans Overnight Price $1.36
BPT BEACH ENERGY Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.67
BSL BLUESCOPE STEEL Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $15.55
Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $15.55
CHC CHARTER HALL Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $11.54
CQR CHARTER HALL RETAIL Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.55
MIN MINERAL RESOURCES Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $16.98
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $16.98
MMS MCMILLAN SHAKESPEARE Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $13.13
MYX MAYNE PHARMA GROUP Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $0.45
NHC NEW HOPE CORP Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.08
OGC OCEANAGOLD Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.79
PLS PILBARA MINERALS Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.27
PPH PUSHPAY HOLDINGS Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.93
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $3.93
PRU PERSEUS MINING Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.02
QAN QANTAS AIRWAYS Buy - Citi Overnight Price $7.40
RRL REGIS RESOURCES Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.09
S32 SOUTH32 Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.92
SBM ST BARBARA Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.52
SGM SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $11.23
SIG SIGMA HEALTHCARE Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - Citi Overnight Price $0.60
Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $0.60
Sell - UBS Overnight Price $0.60
TWE TREASURY WINE ESTATES Buy - UBS Overnight Price $16.67
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

8

2. Accumulate

1

3. Hold

11

4. Reduce

1

5. Sell

5

Monday 16 December 2019

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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.