Australian Broker Call

Credit Suisse rates ALD as Neutral (3) -

Despite a solid headline level beat, Credit Suisse does not find anything substantive in Ampol's first quarter result to fundamentally change its earnings forecast. Shop network sales did well, observes the broker, seemingly locking in an improvement in shop performance.

Retail segment's outperformance came from above-market pricing which, the broker states, led to a stronger than expected fuel margin result.

Credit Suisse retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $27.54 from $27.50.

Target price is $27.54 Current Price is $25.73 Difference: $1.81
If ALD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.10, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALD as Outperform (1) -

Ampol's first-quarter profit of $86m net profit after tax and operating income of $150m was better than Macquarie's expectations despite the snap lockdowns and flooding in NSW/Queensland during the quarter.

The spotlight is on volumes that recovered really well during the quarter and make the guidance look conservative in the broker's view. Thus, there remains scope for upgrades in the coming months.

Target rises to $32.25 from $31.50. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $32.25 Current Price is $25.73 Difference: $6.52
If ALD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.10, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALD as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley assesses quarterly results for Ampol surprised to the upside. The majority of the beat came from an FX gain of $18m though Convenience retail earnings (EBIT) of $78m was a positive sign.

Lytton earnings broke even and a recent modest improvement in refining margins creates an interesting backdrop while the refining review takes place in the second quarter.

The Equal-weight rating and $30 target price are retained. The broker thinks the stock has fallen too far and it's likely that retail fuel margins will start to rise from here. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $25.73 Difference: $4.27
If ALD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.10, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALD as Hold (3) -

Ampol's first-quarter replacement cost of sales operating profit earnings before interest and tax was $150m versus $142m last year. Currency turned out to be less of a headwind than Ord Minnett expected in the first quarter.

The convenience retail division was on the softer side due to lower volumes although it outperformed peers. The broker notes the next catalysts are Lytton refinery and energy transition. 

Hold rating with a target of $27.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $25.73 Difference: $1.27
If ALD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.10, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALD as Buy (1) -

UBS assesses the first quarter update was solid, with supply chain optimisation offsetting lower volumes. The Buy rating and target price of $30.90 are unchanged.

The broker lifts FY21 earnings estimates by 8% to reflect the better-than-expected performance from Lytton and strong realised margins from the Australian Fuel and Infrastructure (F&I) division.

The company has been able to optimise costs to lift the Australia F&I earnings (EBIT) margins to 1.8cpl from 1.2cpl in the first quarter 2020, which has offset a -14% year-on-year fall in Australian fuel volumes.

Target price is $30.90 Current Price is $25.73 Difference: $5.17
If ALD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.10, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates APX as Buy (1) -

The recent capital raising by peer Scale AI provides Citi with a positive read through for Appen regarding the solid growth of the AI training data industry. Scale AI has a similar model to Appen in that it offers an annotation platform and a crowd workforce.

However, the broker cautions that with a number of its competitors raising money recently, Appen may need to step-up investment in product development in order to compete and maintain market share. The Buy rating and $30.90 target are retained.

Target price is $30.90 Current Price is $16.81 Difference: $14.09
If APX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.23, suggesting upside of 31.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BGL as Outperform (1) -

Bellevue Gold's resources have grown to 8.55mt at 9.9g/t for 2.7moz following a maiden resource estimate from the newly discovered Marceline lode.

In Macquarie's view, additional ounces from Marceline and Deacon North in the stage two mine plan will be at a low rate of capital intensity.

Also, extensions of Marceline and other lodes in the upper levels present a key opportunity for Bellevue Gold to add low capital ounces, in the broker's view.

Target price rises to $1.05 from $1. Outperform rating retained. 

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: $0.16
If BGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BOQ as Buy (1) -

In the wake of first half results, Citi sees revenue momentum accelerating into the second half and expects improved performance and asset quality to continue to drive earnings upgrades. The target price is lifted to $9.50 from $9.

The broker leaves the Neutral rating unchanged as much of the upside appears priced in though near-term consensus earnings look too conservative. It's estimated scale benefits from ME Bank will improve longer-term returns.

Similar to the rest of the sector, the bank is yet to benefit from improving asset quality, explains the analyst. Provisions remain around 40% higher than pre-covid levels, which are expected to contribute to earnings momentum in FY22.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.83 Difference: $0.67
If BOQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.60, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BOQ as Outperform (1) -

Bank of Queensland's first-half cash earnings of $165m was in line with the bank's guidance and Credit Suisse's estimates. Post the update, the broker has upgraded its earnings forecast by 1-2% throughout the forecast period.

The broker expects better momentum in retail banking will support above-system growth in mortgages in future periods. The improved net interest margin outlook is also considered a strong positive by Credit Suisse in the low rate environment.

Further, increased scale and diversification from an earnings perspective of the ME Bank acquisition is another positive for the Bank of Queensland.

Credit Suisse raises the target to $10 from $9.50 and maintains an Outperform rating.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.83 Difference: $1.17
If BOQ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.60, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOQ as No Rating (-1) -

Macquarie observes Bank of Queensland's improved result was led by strong deposit margin benefits and low impairment charges, broadly in line with guidance. The broker expects the key focus will remain on growth, margin management and acquisition integration.

In the broker's view, higher deposit pricing should provide a buffer to ongoing mortgage margin pressures as the bank accelerates its growth agenda.

While restricted in terms of giving a rating on the bank, the broker does reiterate its preference for the regionals ahead of the majors given their higher exposure to improved funding mix benefits.

Macquarie is under advice restriction for Bank of Queensland and no rating is provided.

Current Price is $8.83. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $9.60, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOQ as Equal-weight (3) -

First half results and the 17 cent dividend were in-line with guidance and Morgan Stanley's forecasts. Guidance for FY21 revenue and expense growth is unchanged though it's believed the margin commentary is a little more positive.

The broker feels the turnaround continues and sees upside risk to consensus estimates. Morgan Stanley retains the Equal-Weight rating and $9.60 target for Bank of Queensland. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $8.83 Difference: $0.77
If BOQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.60, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BOQ as Add (1) -

A largely pre-announced result was largely in-line with Morgans estimates. A fully franked interim dividend of 17cps was declared. 

The broker increases cash EPS forecasts by 8.9% and 8.1% for FY22 and FY23, respectively, largely due to higher home loan balance forecasts and lower credit impairment charge forecasts. The Add rating is unchanged and the target is increased to $10.50 from $10.

With the macroeconomic and asset quality outlook improving, the analyst believes provisioning is looking increasingly conservative and sees potential for provision release in the second half of FY21 and and in FY22.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $8.83 Difference: $1.67
If BOQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.60, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BOQ as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Bank of Queensland's first-half net profit of $165m was broadly in line with Ord Minnett’s forecast of $166m. An interim dividend of 17c was declared, in line with the broker's forecast. The result was pre-guided with hardly any surprises.

Ord Minnett observes the bank delivered strong pre-provision profit growth of 3% half-on-half with support from funding cost tailwinds and improved execution in its mortgage business.

The broker argues the bank is the best turnaround prospect in the sector, with potential upside from improvements in deposit mix and the delivery of revenue synergies at ME Bank.

Ord Minnett upgrades to Accumulate from Hold with the target rising to $9.50 from $9.30.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.83 Difference: $0.67
If BOQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.60, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Hold (3) -

Growth at Red Lake and Cowal may push group production towards 1mozpa from FY24, according to Ord Minnett. The broker highlights combined these assets represent 61% of Ord Minnett's net present value estimate and more than 70% of medium-term production.

Ord Minnett has increased its earnings forecasts by 10% in FY22-23. 

Hold rating with the target rising to $4.50 from $4.40.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: $0.08
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.44, suggesting downside of -3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FLT as Outperform (1) -

Qantas Airways ((QAN)) has upgraded its fourth-quarter domestic capacity estimates to 90% of pre-covid levels up from 80% led by “positive signs of sustained recovery”.

On a similar note, Virgin Australia Holdings ((VAH)) also anticipates an uptick in domestic travel and expects to be operating at more than 80% of pre-covid domestic capacity by mid-June.

Looking at the evidence, Macquarie suggests tailwinds seem to be emerging in both domestic and international travel and the last delay is likely behind us. 

Also, Flight Centre remains highly sensitive to positive news flow, notes Macquarie, with the stock's valuation supported by strong macro conditions. Given optimism surrounding a travel recovery, Macquarie retains the Outperform rating and target of $20 for Flight Centre.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $17.77 Difference: $2.23
If FLT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.57, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HLS as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie sees covid testing volumes as well as better base business trends supporting Healius's near-term earnings. The broker has increased its second half covid testing volume assumptions for the company in line with these trends/run-rates ahead of expectations.

Over the medium-longer term, the broker sees scope for margin improvement under the sustainable improvement program as well as growth options reflecting an improved balance sheet position.

Macquarie's Outperform rating remains in place with the target lifting to $4.55 from $4.45.

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $4.07 Difference: $0.48
If HLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.27, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHG as Equal-weight (3) -

Heading into the first quarter result, Morgan Stanley is around 10% ahead of consensus EPS and circa 3.5% ahead on operating income. The valuation is considered undemanding though a re-rating requires sustained inflows and the analyst forsees outflows.

The broker upgrades FY21-22 adjusted earnings by around 15-20% on stronger markets and solid cost control. The analyst estimates the quarterly dividend will lift to 37 cents from 36 cents from the first quarter 2021.

Equal-weight rating and the target lifts to $46.40 from $42.10. Industry view is In-line. The broker highlights Dai-Ichi sold its 17% stake in the company during the first quarter which potentially removes a barrier to recent strategic interest.

Target price is $46.40 Current Price is $42.50 Difference: $3.9
If JHG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.10, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NWL as Neutral (3) -

Netwealth Group's third-quarter funds under administration at $41.8bn was up 8% over the last quarter yet remained -1% below Credit Suisse's estimate.

The growth was driven by net inflows and positive market movements although the net flows were circa -$0.1bn weaker than the broker expected. New account openings of 3.8k were at record levels, notes Credit Suisse.

On the flip side, the broker finds Netwealth's guidance, which implies flat flows in the June quarter over March, conservative as typically June is the strongest quarter of the year.

Credit Suisse retains its Neutral rating with a target of $14.40.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $14.70 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.14, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWS as Outperform (1) -

Dow Jones represented 18% of News Corp's group revenue in FY20. In Macquarie's view, the here margins will rise to circa 25% by FY24 led by professional information business where margins are expected to rise to 35-40%.

In the near term, the broker expects a soft third quarter as costs resume on a post-covid basis. Macquarie views any near-term share price weakness as an attractive entry point.

Outperform retained, target rises to $44 from $37.8.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $31.83 Difference: $12.17
If NWS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.23, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PDL as Neutral (3) -

After reviewing second quarter results, Citi considers performance fees are tracking above expectations. However, the focus is expected to be on the first half FY22, where the group is cycling a tough comparison, as much of the fees were driven by one core strategy. 

The broker highlights net flows turned positive for the second time in eight quarters though much of the quarter-on-quarter improvements appeared driven by the lumpy institutional channel.

The analyst considers Pendal Group is on the path to recovery though with the valuation multiple slightly above the historical median, retains the Neutral rating. The target lifts to $7.20 from $6.80 after an increase in EPS estimates by 9% in FY21 and 3% in FY22.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $7.45 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If PDL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.72, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PDL as Neutral (3) -

Pendal Group reported second-quarter funds under management of $107.4bn, up 4.4% over the quarter and 3% ahead of Credit Suisse's forecast. The beat was even larger in the higher-margin JO Hambro business.

The broker attributes the growth to net inflows of $0.9bn along with positive market movements. Inflows were broad-based across the institutional and retail businesses as well as by region. The broker has increased its earnings estimates for FY21-23 by 5-6%.

Despite feeling encouraged by Pendal's improving fund performance and fund flow trends, Credit Suisse remains cautious going into the first half result and retains its Neutral rating with the target rising to $7.50 from $6.50.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.45 Difference: $0.05
If PDL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.72, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PDL as Overweight (1) -

Pendal Group returned to inflows in the March quarter with $0.9bn versus the $0.2bn estimated by Morgan Stanley, as Australian
institutional and EU/UK retail drove the beat.

Funds under management (FUM) of $101.7bn was also ahead of the broker's estimate of $99.3bn, driven by strong market returns and investment performance.

The Overweight rating is supported by strong investment returns across the group, ESG growth options and the group's
compelling valuation support, explains the analyst. The $7.70 target is retained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $7.45 Difference: $0.25
If PDL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.72, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PDL as Add (1) -

Morgans upgrades the EPS forecast for FY21 by 7.2% in FY21 and circa 2% in outer years. Pendal Group reported group funds under management (FUM) rose 4.4% for the second quarter. The Add rating is unchanged and the target price is increased $8.10 from $7.15.

The broker now has increased confidence that further meaningful net outflows can be stemmed in the JOHCM business. Several funds (in particular UK/EU value orientated funds) have regained significant investment underperformance since November 2020.

The improved performance also improves the medium-term outlook for performance fees. Morgans sees the current valuation as relatively undemanding.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $7.45 Difference: $0.65
If PDL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.72, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PDL as Accumulate (2) -

Pendal Group's second-quarter FY21 funds under management at $101.7bn was up 4% over the last quarter. The quarter showed JO Hambro Capital Management (JOHCM) return to positive net flows for only the second time in four years, highlights the broker.

Even so, Ord Minnett cautions a single quarter does not make a trend and the near-term flow outlook remains uncertain.

In the broker's view, the current share price presents an attractive risk-reward relative to other listed ASX-listed asset managers over the medium term.

Accumulate rating with the target rising to $8.50 from $7.60.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.45 Difference: $1.05
If PDL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.72, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PPS as Buy (1) -

Praemium reported funds under administration (FuA) of $21.2bn at March 31, up 4.4% over the quarter, and in line with Ord Minnett's forecast of $21bn. In Australia, net flows of $448m were down over last quarter but up substantially on the $152m reported a year ago.

The International division's performance improved and will be an important factor in Praemium's story over the next couple of years, in the broker's view.

Ord Minnett believes the business has the potential to deliver meaningful earnings and cash flow within two years. 

Buy rating with a target of $1.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.77 Difference: $0.23
If PPS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QAN as Buy (1) -

In-line with Citi's previous short term expectations, Qantas upgraded its capacity assumptions for FY21 and FY22. The broker thinks
the company is in a good place to increase market share and come out in a better competitive position on the other side.

Additionally, management provided FY22 guidance for Jetstar and Qantas for 120% and 107% of pre-covid levels respectively. The Buy rating is unchanged and the target reduced to $6.11 from $6.14.

The analyst reminds us that domestic flights are circa three times the margin of international flights and notes nearly 11m trips were
made overseas in FY19. If these are instead converted to domestic flights, the domestic market could grow around 17%.

Target price is $6.11 Current Price is $5.20 Difference: $0.91
If QAN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.80, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QAN as Outperform (1) -

Qantas Airways expects FY22 domestic capacity to be at circa 110% of pre-covid levels supported by strong leisure demand stimulated by the government’s $1.2bn aviation support package and recovering corporate travel volumes.

The airways remains optimistic about international borders re-opening beyond the trans-Tasman from October 2021. 

Macquarie continues to monitor covid vaccine roll-outs in key destinations like the US, Singapore etc that formed a big chunk of Qantas’ FY19 available seat kilometers (ASKs). 

Outperform with the target rising to $6.45 from $6.35.

Target price is $6.45 Current Price is $5.20 Difference: $1.25
If QAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.80, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QAN as Overweight (1) -

Qantas announced that fourth quarter capacity is expected to reach greater than 90% of normal, versus prior guidance of 80% though the impact on profit is relatively small.

Morgan Stanley sees this as important and believes the recovery has progressed to the point that organic balance sheet repair should
now commence.

Within these figures Leisure is very strong (assisted by government incentives) and corporate is now at 65% of pre-covid, explains the analyst. The Overweight rating and target of $5.90 are retained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $5.20 Difference: $0.7
If QAN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.80, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SHL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie expects substantial covid earnings contributions for Sonic Healthcare in the second half with a continuation of testing into FY22. That said, the broker thinks the medium-term outlook for these volumes/reimbursement remains uncertain.

The broker also expects potential adverse mix effects in the event of lower-than-expected covid testing volumes.

With Healius ((HLS)) and Integral Diagnostics ((IDX)) Macquarie's preferred exposures in the diagnostic services sector, Sonic Healthcare is retained at Neutral with the target rising to $37.55 from $36.9.

Target price is $37.55 Current Price is $35.75 Difference: $1.8
If SHL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.47, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SHV as Buy (1) -

Citi continues to see upside risk to current almond pricing after recent industry forecasts expect the 2021 US almond crop to decline by -10%. Citi retains a Buy rating and $6.50 target.

The release of the official USDA acreage report on 22 April and a subjective 2021 crop forecast on May 12 being key catalysts over the next month, notes the broker.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.27 Difference: $0.23
If SHV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SVW as Outperform (1) -

Seven Group Holdings' investor day focused on WesTrac and Coates, the industrial businesses expecting improvement in key markets. Macquarie notes the current activity levels across WesTrac and Coates end-markets are high.

This underpins the broker's confidence in the growth outlook going into FY22. Macquarie believes Seven Group Holdings is well placed to outperform current growth expectations in the medium-term with quality exposure to the strong resources and infrastructure sectors.

Outperform rating with the target rising to $28.40 from $26.95. 

Target price is $28.40 Current Price is $23.21 Difference: $5.19
If SVW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.83, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SVW as Buy (1) -

Seven Group Holdings reiterates its FY21 guidance and continues to expect Coates to deliver low-single-digit earnings (EBIT) growth with WesTrac set for high-single-digit growth. Coates is quoting on a record level of work and utilisation and is now recovering off covid lows.

Buy rated and the target is raised to $27.50 from $26.50 on the mark-to-market of the company's listed portfolio and the increased shareholding in Boral ((BLD)). The company sees Boral as complementary to its existing infrastructure leverage with Coates.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $23.21 Difference: $4.29
If SVW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.83, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TCL as Outperform (1) -

Transurban Group's third-quarter traffic was impacted by lockdowns in the NSW Northern Beaches, Queensland and Victoria. 

Macquarie highlights a recovery in traffic with management discussion pointing to better individual months with February in Sydney being positive. Across the Australian roads, the broker notes the trend to be improving across most assets particularly truck heavy.

While the resumption of traffic growth may be taking a little longer, Macquarie thinks this is immaterial to the fundamental value of the Transurban Group and expects population led registration growth ahead.

Outperform retained and the target falls to $14.52 from $14.76.

Target price is $14.52 Current Price is $13.80 Difference: $0.72
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.23, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TCL as Hold (3) -

After March quarter data painted a picture of varied traffic performance, forecast changes by Morgans delivers a 1-3% increase in forecast DPS across FY21-23. However, longer term forecasts are impacted by the uplift in market interest rates.

The broker expects the average cost of debt to continue to trend down though not by as much as previously thought. This is because market interest rates have risen, which will impact as existing debt and/or interest rate swaps mature and are replaced at market rates.

Roughly half of the company’s toll revenues escalate with CPI, with the vast bulk of the remainder subject to fixed escalation of 4-4.25% pa. The benefit of the fixed escalators declines as CPI expectations rise.

Hold rating. The target price is reduced to $13.86 from $13.87.

Target price is $13.86 Current Price is $13.80 Difference: $0.06
If TCL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.23, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TCL as Buy (1) -

Transurban Group delivered a broadly positive March-quarter traffic update, observes Ord Minnett. The average daily traffic (ADT) at the group level increased 1% over last year, deemed by the broker a "strong improvement" on the -12% decline in the December quarter.

The broker believes the medium-term outlook is sound with traffic growth strong as the group recovers from covid-affected levels. Also, Ord Minnett believes demand for long-duration assets is very strong globally, seen by Transurban’s sale of the stake in its US assets. 

Buy rating unchanged. Target is $16.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $13.80 Difference: $2.2
If TCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.23, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TCL as Buy (1) -

Largely driven by Logan, March quarter traffic figures revealed to UBS that Brisbane continues to outperform the other networks, by showing underlying growth on pre-covid levels. 

Overall, Transurban Group reported March quarter traffic down -4% compared to the same period in 2019, or down -11% on a like-for-like basis excluding new roads. The Buy rating and target of $14.65 are unchanged.

Target price is $14.65 Current Price is $13.80 Difference: $0.85
If TCL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.23, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VVA as Buy (1) -

Viva Leisure's latest market update showed the favourable conditions seen in early 2021 continued throughout the March quarter. March 2021 revenue run-rate grew to $8.1m, up from $7.5m in January.

Ord Minnett has increased its FY21 revenue forecast marginally led by the improved revenue run rate. According to the broker, the company continues to offer compelling value.

Buy retained. Target is raised to $3.81 from $3.56.

Target price is $3.81 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $1.14
If VVA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WHC as Buy (1) -

March quarter production disappointed Citi again as Narrabri again struggled with faulting, which impacted both volume and coal quality. The broker can't be confident of sustained improvement until mining at Narrabri moves to the southern zone in around 18 months.

The analyst highlights Maules Creek is performing well. FY21 earnings estimates are lowered on lower production/sales guidance and higher costs. However, with higher Citi thermal coal price forecasts, FY22 forecast earnings are up.

The Buy/High Risk rating and $2 target are retained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.56 Difference: $0.44
If WHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.97, suggesting upside of 31.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WHC as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Whitehaven Coal's March quarter performance disappointed Credit Suisse with solid output at the open-cut mines undone by problems at Narrabri mine that led to outages for four weeks in the half.

The miner has cut its FY21 production and sales estimates yet again by -0.6-0.8mt for Narrabri. Also, the issues there eliminated cash generation in the quarter with no reduction in the net debt to date.

The broker expected net debt to halve by the end of FY22 but sees that delayed by over two years now.

Credit Suisse downgrades to Neutral from Outperform with the target price dropping to $1.55 from $1.95.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.56 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.97, suggesting upside of 31.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WHC as Neutral (3) -

Production and sales for Whitehaven Coal were weaker than expected in the third quarter, impacted by floods in NSW, port damage and geological issues at the Narrabri mine.

The miner has downgraded its production guidance at Narrabri by circa -12% while cost guidance has increased. Macquarie remains cautious on thermal coal markets but also notes there is an upside to earnings in a spot price scenario.

 Neutral rating and $1.70 target retained.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.56 Difference: $0.14
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.97, suggesting upside of 31.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

After a disappointing March quarter result with short-term issues of Narrabri tonnage and price realisation, Morgan Stanley reduces the target price to $2.10 from $2.60. Industry view: Attractive.  Management reduced FY21 production and sales estimates for Narrabri.

The Overweight rating is maintained as the broker expects conditions to improve from the second half of FY22. Cash flow generation is considered compelling at the base case and spot prices, which should lead to near-term deleveraging.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.56 Difference: $0.54
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.97, suggesting upside of 31.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WHC as Accumulate (2) -

Whitehaven Coal's March quarter result was poor on optics, observes Ord Minnett, with a third downgrade to the miner's FY21 guidance driven by lower group production and higher unit costs from faults encountered throughout the quarter at the company's Narrabri mines.

Accumulate rating is maintained with the target price reduced to $1.90 from $2.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.56 Difference: $0.34
If WHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.97, suggesting upside of 31.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates Z1P as Add (1) -

After a successful pricing for $400m of senior unsecured convertible notes, Morgans calculates there is $500m of cash to support growth aspirations. This is considered to take further capital raisings off the agenda for an extended period.

The Add rating is unchanged and the target price falls to $10.39 from $10.92 as the conversion of the convertible bond will see share dilution via the issue of 32m shares.

Target price is $10.39 Current Price is $8.95 Difference: $1.44
If Z1P meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.08, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources