Australian Broker Call

Citi rates ALL as Buy (1) -

Citi observes Aristocrat Leisure has improved its liquidity through cost reductions, suspending the dividend in the first half and adding further gearing.

The broker does not expect pressure on the balance sheet to arise out of the disruption from the pandemic

 Earnings estimates are reduced by -13-15% to factor in a full three-month closure across the US, partially offset by cost reductions.

Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $28.60 from $29.40.

Target price is $28.60 Current Price is $23.06 Difference: $5.54
If ALL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.11, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALL as Overweight (1) -

The company has indicated digital bookings remain strong although no specific earnings impact was provided. Morgan Stanley notes -$100m in cost reductions and $1bn in available liquidity.

Combined, the company's measures should deliver an additional $300-500m in free cash flow. First half results are on May 21.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating. Target is $21. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $23.06 Difference: minus $2.06 (current price is over target).
If ALL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.11, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALL as Add (1) -

Aristocrat Leisure has suspended its interim dividend in order to preserve capital, despite having over $1bn in liquidity. The company's pokie palace customers have been shut since mid-March, impacting on operations and sales, offset by a strong performance in digital, the broker notes.

The broker has cut forecasts and does not expect a final dividend to be paid either. But on an attractive longer term proposition, the broker retains Add. Target falls to $31.88 from $36.91.

Target price is $31.88 Current Price is $23.06 Difference: $8.82
If ALL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.11, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALL as Buy (1) -

Aristocrat Leisure has suspended its interim FY20 dividend to preserve capital. Ord Minnett now models no dividends for FY20 and increases FY20 and FY21 net profit forecasts slightly.

The company has reduced remuneration by more than -70%, standing down 1000 personnel until June and removing 200 roles permanently.

Aristocrat Leisure has reaffirmed the strength of its digital business. Buy rating and $30.30 target maintained.

Target price is $30.30 Current Price is $23.06 Difference: $7.24
If ALL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.11, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALL as Buy (1) -

UBS assumes that replacement demand declines by two thirds in the first year after casinos re-open in the US.

The broker assumes participation fee structures are unchanged and that Aristocrat Leisure has continued success with its new digital releases.

Still, a material pick up in industry growth for digital is not yet assumed. Buy rating and $31.50 target maintained.

Target price is $31.50 Current Price is $23.06 Difference: $8.44
If ALL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.11, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALU as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley considers Altium a stock to own in an economic downturn. The printed circuit board software is leveraged to the proliferation of electronics and smart connected devices.

The company is likely to benefit in the current environment where work is being fragmented from different locations. Morgan Stanley initiates coverage with an Overweight rating, $40 target and Attractive industry view.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $33.07 Difference: $6.93
If ALU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AWC as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Amid changes to exchange rate forecasts, which hits bulk commodity stocks hard, Macquarie downgrades Alumina Ltd to Underperform from Neutral.

Target is reduced to $1.40 from $1.50. The changes drive reductions to 2020 and 2021 forecasts of -13% and -9% respectively.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.48 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.82, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AX1 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley considers the company's update is showing a path towards normalisation. Stores will re-open progressively from May 11 and new safety protocols will be implemented.

While online sales have surged, and the numbers are encouraging, the broker suspects this will return to normal as stores re-open.

Discussions with landlords continue and the company is now paying rent on more than 100 stores but exiting 28 leases with one major landlord because an agreement could not be reached.

Morgan Stanley suspects the shift to online shopping will help re-base rental rates. Overweight rating. Target is $1.40. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: $0.24
If AX1 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BGL as Outperform (1) -

Bellevue Gold has reported an increase in its inferred resource of 23%, to 6.1mt at 11.3g/t for 2.2m ounces of gold following a maiden resource from the Deacon lode.

Macquarie assesses, after a $26.5m capital raising, the company is well funded to continue exploring. A desktop study showed the potential for open pit mining on the Bellevue and Tribune lodes which would then lead to underground development.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and $0.90 target.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.3
If BGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BVS as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes the tender process continues, with past client gains providing work for the company. The business also has a $100m net cash buffer for contract and project timing.

Still, there remains a risk around the timing of deals and settlements. Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and reduces the target to $6.00 from $6.20.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.70 Difference: $1.3
If BVS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CQR as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

The company has announced a $275m institutional placement along with the unit holder purchase plan of up to $25m. Citi considers the heavy discount quite unfavourable.

The broker was surprised that asset sales were not considered as a more viable option.

Citi upgrades to Neutral from Sell on valuation but believes that raising highlights the income and asset value problems facing retail landlords. Target is reduced to $2.99 from $3.76.

Target price is $2.99 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $0
If CQR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.41, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CQR as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Credit Suisse believes the company's $275m capital raising should address any market concerns about gearing. The issue is dilutive to earnings by around -20% but pro forma gearing reduces to 22.6% from 32.1%.

Amid uncertainty over how long the pandemic will affect trade, the broker suggests the extra liquidity means there is less of a risk of being squeezed by banks, although there could be a debate over whether the capital was raised too early.

The company still intends to pay a second half distribution so a part of this raising will be paid back to investors, Credit Suisse points out. Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and the target is reduced to $3.32 from $4.70.

Target price is $3.32 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $0.33
If CQR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.41, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CQR as Outperform (1) -

The company has announced a $300m equity raising, priced at a -7.9% discount to the last close. Macquarie suspected the equity raising would occur although the amount surprised to the upside.

As a result, Charter Hall Retail has obtained significant balance-sheet capacity. Macquarie increases the target by 5% to $4.30. Outperform retained.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $1.31
If CQR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.41, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CQR as Underweight (5) -

Charter Hall Retail will raise $235m in a placement and $25m in a unit purchase plan at $2.90 a share. Intentions to pay a distribution have been confirmed for the second half.

Morgan Stanley suggests the equity raising is pre-emptive as the business was not pushing at gearing covenants.

The company has indicated that 60% of its supermarket tenants are now in turnover-rent territory. Morgan Stanley is surprised that figure is not higher, and it implies that the step up in supermarket sales over the last couple of months has not really occurred across all locations.

Underweight maintained. Target is $3.35. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $0.36
If CQR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.41, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CQR as Buy (1) -

The company has raised $275m via a placement to reinforce the balance sheet. UBS adjusts earnings estimates down -3% for FY20 and -15% for FY21 to reflect the dilutive equity raising.

No acquisitions are factored into forecasts. Buy rating and $3.50 target maintained.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $0.51
If CQR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.41, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DHG as Upgrade to Hold from Reduce (3) -

Domain Holdings is preparing for a tougher environment, Morgans notes, moving to a second round of cost reductions and increasing credit lines.

The company's print publications were suspended two weeks ago and will likely remain so until at least September. Digital performed well in March, but from thereon the outlook is unclear.

The broker has cut its target to $2.46 from $2.54 but upgraded to Hold from Reduce, believing investors will have a chance to buy in at a lower level ahead.

Target price is $2.46 Current Price is $2.50 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DHG as Accumulate (2) -

Trading in the March quarter was roughly in line with Ord Minnett's expectations. There was no detail on the magnitude of the decline in new listings so far in April. The broker continues to model a -50% decline between April and September.

However, indications that the government restrictions may be eased as soon as May could mean both severity and the length of declines are better than currently modelled.

Ord Minnett maintains an Accumulate rating, noting the stock has underperformed REA Group ((REA)) on its way down during the crisis, because of greater operating leverage.

It is expected to outperform on the way up once new listings recover. Target is raised to $3.15 from $3.00.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.50 Difference: $0.65
If DHG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DHG as Buy (1) -

UBS considers the debt relief and cost reductions are positive. The company has obtained a new $80m facility to provide additional liquidity.

The March update was strong, with a key feature being a 17% rise in residential yields. The broker suggests the new pricing model is making depth more attractive to mid-to-lower tier properties.

Forecasts are reduced to reflect agent support measures and print closures. Buy rating and $3.30 target maintained.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.50 Difference: $0.8
If DHG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie retains a preference for iron ore exposure for large cap miners after incorporating changes to FX forecasts and Fortescue Metals remains the key pick.

The outlook for the AUD/USD has been tempered because of the rapid and extremely aggressive response by the US Fed to current economic circumstances.

Outperform retained. Target is reduced to $13.20 from $13.70.

Target price is $13.20 Current Price is $11.46 Difference: $1.74
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.17, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GNX as Add (1) -

Genex Power's quarterly update revealed Kidston solar generation was solid and in line with expectations, while lower electricity price trends suggest weaker earnings at Jemalong, the broker notes.

Kidston Hydro has not yet reached financial close but the broker believes this is imminent. Target falls to 35c from 36c, Speculative Buy rating retained.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.15
If GNX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HLO as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett uses two criteria to assess pure travel stocks: do they have enough cash to survive the crisis assuming little or no revenue for the next 12-18 months and, secondly, are they likely to have a sound business model post the virus.

In the case of Helloworld the answer to both questions is yes, and the broker expects a resumption of domestic travel will be positive for earnings. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $1.98 from $3.28.

Target price is $1.98 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: $0.66
If HLO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LEP as Neutral (3) -

ALE Property are refinancing a $225bn expiry using an interim facility. Macquarie notes, while pubs are currently closed, there are more than 86 bottle shops across the company's sites which provide trade and pay rent.

While the delay over a long-term financing solution for the August 2020 AMTN  expiry is disappointing, the broker notes this is out of the company's control.

While value is on offer, Macquarie retains a Neutral rating, given the lack of clarity around of the length of time the pubs and hotels will be closed. Target is $4.81.

Target price is $4.81 Current Price is $4.16 Difference: $0.65
If LEP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MTS as Neutral (3) -

Strong food sales imply a 34% sales uplift in March. While Macquarie is pleased that the volumes are improving cost pressures are expected to weigh.

The broker considers the recent capital raising will provide ample liquidity to undertake M&A and cover growth.

Liquor is also benefiting from increased at-home consumption, although trade-focused hardware is affected by the general economic slowdown.

Neutral rating. Target is reduced to $2.65 from $2.80.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.52 Difference: $0.13
If MTS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.88, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MTS as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Following share price weakness and post the equity raising, Ord Minnett upgrades back to Accumulate from Hold.

The main issue is the extent to which the independent supermarkets retain customers from increased visits because of stock availability and proximity to customers.

While a local and regional skew has its advantages, the broker notes online growth from Coles ((COL)) and Woolworths ((WOW)) could moderate recent strength.

This, ultimately, is expected to be determined by the quality of the individual retailer, and variance is wide. Target is $3.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.52 Difference: $0.48
If MTS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.88, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MVF as Overweight (1) -

According to the broker, Monash IVF now has a well capitalised balance sheet after raising $80m. Although the Australian government has allowed IVF to re-start, Morgan Stanley believes social distancing measures will still cause a delay to a full market recovery.

The broker presumes 20% of procedures return in the June quarter, 75% in the first half of FY21 and 90% thereafter. Overweight rating maintained. Target is reduced to $0.79 from $1.05. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $0.79 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.24
If MVF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Buy (1) -

First half results were brought forward 10 days to facilitate a $3.5bn capital raising. First half cash earnings were down -50% because of higher loan loss provisions as a result of the pandemic and a number of one-off items.

Citi assesses, with a further capital raising unlikely, the stock will be priced on its prospective dividend yield. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $24.75 from $25.50.

Target price is $24.75 Current Price is $15.35 Difference: $9.4
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.71, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NAB as Outperform (1) -

Following the first half result, Credit Suisse downgrades estimates by -1-4% across its forecasts. The broker assesses the $807m increase in provisions for the pandemic appears light.

That said, bad debt assumptions are not changed amid expectations of a peak in both the second half of FY20 and the first half of FY21.

The broker still expects the bank to be profitable under most scenarios and maintains an Outperform rating. Target is reduced to $18.50 from $19.50.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $15.35 Difference: $3.15
If NAB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.71, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Overweight (1) -

First half revenue missed Morgan Stanley's estimates because of lower treasury and markets income. Margin trends were better than feared and the capital raising provides a large buffer.

The broker suspects uncertainty regarding loan losses and dividends will limit the upside for the stock in coming months.

The broker now assumes the final dividend is flat, at $0.30. The pay-out ratio is expected to settle in a range of 50-70% in the medium term.

Overweight. Target is reduced to $16.70 from $18.70. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $16.70 Current Price is $15.35 Difference: $1.35
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.71, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NAB as Accumulate (2) -

First half earnings were below forecasts. The bank has announced a $3.5bn capital raising. Ord Minnett notes treasury and markets income were much weaker, down -31%, and well below expectations.

Overall, however, operations were solid and net interest margins unchanged.

While significant uncertainty will weigh on the sector, Ord Minnett suggests National Australia Bank has a solid platform in place and maintains an Accumulate rating. Target is reduced to $18 from $20.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $15.35 Difference: $2.65
If NAB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.71, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NCM as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Amid changes to exchange rate forecasts, Macquarie downgrades to Underperform from Neutral. Target is steady at $23.

The outlook for the AUD/USD has been tempered because of the rapid and extremely aggressive response by the US Fed to current economic circumstances.

Should Macquarie's expectations for a materially weaker US dollar eventuate, physical gold is expected to strengthen and gold equities continue to outperform the US dollar gold price.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $27.86 Difference: minus $4.86 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.47, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NCM as Hold (3) -

The PNG government has decided not to renew the special mining lease for Porgera gold mine. Given the difficult operating history, Ord Minnett suggests it is hard to draw any parallel with Lihir and the 50%-owned Wafi Golpu operations.

However, the broker suggests the decision has heightened the sovereign risk to valuations. Hold rating and $26 target maintained.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $27.86 Difference: minus $1.86 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.47, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHC as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Amid changes to exchange rate forecasts, which hits bulk commodity stocks hard, Macquarie downgrades to Underperform from Neutral.

The outlook for the AUD/USD has been tempered because of the rapid and extremely aggressive response by the US Fed to current economic circumstances.

New Hope's target is reduced to $1.30 from $1.50. Forecasts for FY20 are cut -15% and FY21 -39%.

The broker notes downside risk to earnings forecasts for coal miners remains significant, despite the reduction to the near-term outlook. Earnings for New Hope swing from profit to loss under a spot price scenario in FY21.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.40 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.70, suggesting upside of 21.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NTO as Overweight (1) -

First quarter revenue and cash receipts were ahead of expectations. Morgan Stanley considers the update is consistent with accelerating digitisation trends and reflects the company's resilience despite the economic upheaval.

Overweight rating. In-Line industry view. Target is $1.80.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: $0.46
If NTO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OGC as Neutral (3) -

Amid changes to exchange rate forecasts, Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $2.50 from $1.80.

The outlook for the AUD/USD has been tempered because of the rapid and extremely aggressive response by the US Fed to current economic circumstances.

Should Macquarie's expectations for a materially weaker US dollar eventuate, physical gold is expected to strengthen and gold equities continue to outperform the US dollar gold price.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $0.23
If OGC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.00, suggesting upside of 32.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OZL as Outperform (1) -

Amid changes to exchange rate forecasts, Macquarie cuts earnings estimates for base metals miners materially. OZ Minerals earnings are reduced by -35% for 2020 and -14% for 2021.

The outlook for the AUD/USD has been tempered because of the rapid and extremely aggressive response by the US Fed to current economic circumstances.

Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $10.00 from $10.80.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.53 Difference: $1.47
If OZL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.02, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RHC as Neutral (3) -

UBS observes the return of certain elective surgery is positive for Ramsay Health Care and there is a possibility lower acuity category 3 electives will return from May 11. However the implications for short-term earnings remain difficult to assess.

The broker currently assumes 5% revenue growth in FY21 off the weak FY20 base. The market is expected to look through FY21 earnings and focus on recovery in FY22. Neutral rating and $63.20 target maintained.

Target price is $63.20 Current Price is $62.11 Difference: $1.09
If RHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $64.20, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Amid changes to exchange rate forecasts, Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target is raised to $4.60 from $3.90.

The outlook for the AUD/USD has been tempered because of the rapid and extremely aggressive response by the US Fed to current economic circumstances.

Should Macquarie's expectations for a materially weaker US dollar eventuate, physical gold is expected to strengthen and gold equities continue to outperform the US dollar gold price.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.48 Difference: $0.12
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.91, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SBM as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Amid changes to exchange rate forecasts, Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target is raised to $2.60 from $2.30.

The outlook for the AUD/USD has been tempered because of the rapid and extremely aggressive response by the US Fed to current economic circumstances.

Should Macquarie's expectations for a materially weaker US dollar eventuate, physical gold is expected to strengthen and gold equities continue to outperform the US dollar gold price.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.46 Difference: $0.14
If SBM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.16, suggesting upside of 28.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SIQ as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews the impact of a further reduction in novated volume assumptions and believes Smartgroup is well-placed for the challenges ahead.

The company has a defensive client base with a weighting in government, health and education. Lower levels of activity are expected to affect FY20 earnings with FY21/22 largely unchanged.

Outperform maintained. Target is reduced to $5.76 from $6.10.

Target price is $5.76 Current Price is $5.02 Difference: $0.74
If SIQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.83, suggesting upside of 36.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SLK as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie recognises the support by the Queensland government for regional transport providers.

Regional ferry providers such as Sealink appear to be the beneficiaries of the $54m regional transportation support package.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and $3.99 target.

Target price is $3.99 Current Price is $3.45 Difference: $0.54
If SLK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SLR as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Amid changes to exchange rate forecasts, Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target is raised to $2.10 from $1.80.

The outlook for the AUD/USD has been tempered because of the rapid and extremely aggressive response by the US Fed to current economic circumstances.

Should Macquarie's expectations for a materially weaker US dollar eventuate, physical gold is expected to strengthen and gold equities continue to outperform the US dollar gold price.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.99 Difference: $0.11
If SLR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUN as Neutral (3) -

Citi re-assesses potential bad debts and also rolls forward marking to market. The banking division appears to have entered the current crisis in good shape but carries more risk than the general insurer in the current environment.

Hence, the broker considers the bank a drag on the share price. Neutral retained. Target is reduced to $9.20 from $9.50.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $8.83 Difference: $0.37
If SUN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.41, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SZL as Buy (1) -

Cash flows were better than Ord Minnett expected in the March quarter. Commentary regarding credit was positive. The broker expects Sezzle will reach around 1.4m customers by June 30.

The business is considered well-placed to continue its growth. Buy rating and $2.70 target maintained.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $1.11
If SZL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TAH as Hold (3) -

The broker has cut its Tabcorp earnings forecasts by -32% and -24% in FY20-21 and expects no FY20 final or FY21 interim dividend, given the impact on wagering and gaming services from venue closures. Lotteries are nonetheless expected to remain solid.

Target falls to $2.72 from $4.35, Hold retained.

Target price is $2.72 Current Price is $2.96 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If TAH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates UMG as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) -

The broker has initiated coverage of Graincorp ((GNC)) spin-off United Malt Group, the world's fourth largest commercial malster, with a Hold rating and $4.65 target. While there is much to like about the company the broker does not believe virus downside risk is being fully priced in.

Stay at home restrictions are impacting on United Malt's traditional growth market, in particular craft beer. Despite strong cash flow, gearing is a bit higher than the broker would like.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $4.38 Difference: $0.27
If UMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WBC as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett believes Westpac is facing heightened pressure to address its potentially tight capital position. The broker suggests Westpac runs the risk of being left at a material deficit to peers on capital.

While having only recently upgraded to Accumulate on valuation grounds, the additional uncertainty around capital makes the broker wary. As a result the rating is downgraded back to Hold and the target lowered to $16 from $18.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $14.95 Difference: $1.05
If WBC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.66, suggesting upside of 24.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WHC as Underperform (5) -

Amid changes to exchange rate forecasts, Macquarie reiterates an Underperform rating for Whitehaven Coal. Target is reduced to $1.60 from $1.80.

The outlook for the AUD/USD has been tempered because of the rapid and extremely aggressive response by the US Fed to current economic circumstances.

The broker notes downside risk to earnings forecasts for coal miners remains significant, despite the reduction to the near-term outlook.

Earnings for Whitehaven Coal swing from profit to loss under a spot price scenario in FY21.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.60, suggesting upside of 53.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WSA as Buy (1) -

March quarter production held no surprises for Ord Minnett. The cash balance remains healthy and the company has no debt, meaning it can ride out low nickel prices.

A significant portion of the industry remains loss-making at spot prices, which should limit the downside potential (famous last words perhaps, the broker suggests).

Buy rating and $2.20 target maintained. Ord Minnett still expects loss of demand will be greater than the loss of supply despite some pandemic-related production interruptions.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: $0.09
If WSA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.57, suggesting upside of 21.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources