Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates ABC as Neutral (3) -

The company has withdrawn guidance. Macquarie's channel checks of residential builders and developers point to a dire short-term outlook for sales that should affect demand significantly in the second half of FY20 and the first half of FY21.

Beyond that the impact depends on the longevity of the disruption and how quickly consumer confidence can be repaired.

The broker continues to monitor developments closely but notes the balance sheet is in reasonable shape.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.20 from $3.00.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: $0.26
If ABC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.85, suggesting upside of 46.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ABC as Equal-weight (3) -

The company has withdrawn guidance for 2020, given the uncertainty regarding the pandemic impact. Net profit had been expected to be -10% below the prior year.

The CEO has indicated that trading is in line with expectations to date and all sites are operational.

There is no debt maturing until November 2024 and the company holds $450m in cash and undrawn bank facilities.

Morgan Stanley already expected there was a high risk to guidance and is not surprised by the withdrawal.

The broker expects significant disruption to demand across all key construction markets.

Equal-weight. Target is reduced to $2.90 from $3.00. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: $0.96
If ABC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.85, suggesting upside of 46.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ABC as Add (1) -

The company has withdrawn earnings guidance because of the uncertainty regarding the duration and impact of the coronavirus crisis. Morgans is not surprised, given the actions of peers.

The company is continuing to progress with cost reductions and capital expenditure plans are being reviewed. The final 2019 dividend is still expected to be paid on April 28.

Morgans continues to believe 2020 will be a cyclical low point in the earnings cycle and demand from mining and infrastructure markets will support a return to earnings growth in 2021.

Add rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.85 from $3.30.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: $0.91
If ABC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.85, suggesting upside of 46.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Buy (1) -

Citi does not expect APRA to follow the RBNZ's lead in suspending bank dividend payments, as too many self-funded retirees rely on that income with the cash rate at 0.25%. The regulator has indeed flagged an opposite capital approach -- easing the timing on "unquestionably strong" levels in the face of the crisis.

The broker nevertheless believes the banks were preparing for dividend cuts in the second half as bad debts mount, but may now pull those forward to the first half given the loss of NZ dividends. To that end the broker has cut dividend assumptions by -10-18% for ANZ Bank, National Bank and Westpac.

Buy and $24.75 target retained for ANZ.

Target price is $24.75 Current Price is $15.68 Difference: $9.07
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.05, suggesting upside of 27.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ANZ as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie has taken on the role of most bearish banking sector analyst thus far in Australia with its latest update forecasting "significant downside risk". Worst case scenario, highlight the analysts, credit losses for the Big Four could accumulate to -$137bn over five years, more than double the suffering during the GFC.

Were such a scenario to unfold, banks would need to "aggressively" reduce their dividend, and potentially raise $5-10bn on top, each.

On the positive side, all banks are expected to remain profitable. Though at the recession's peak impact, Macquarie calculates earnings will fall to near zero, shrinking the banks' ability to pay a dividend to shareholders. As per always, CommBank is expected to perform most resiliently.

Macquarie sees value in bank share prices on a five year horizon, but continues to see downside shorter term. Underperform rating retained for ANZ Bank, with $16.50 price target.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $15.68 Difference: $0.82
If ANZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.05, suggesting upside of 27.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AVN as Add (1) -

The company has withdrawn FY20 guidance. Management has indicated that the current operating performance is "solid".

Morgans suspects this will be underpinned by increased expenditure on staple items as well as from other beneficiaries of the move to working from home, such as Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)).

What is unknown, is the impact of any prolonged shutdown and the quantum of the rental abatements. Taking a long view, the broker retains an Add rating and reduces the target to $2.54 from $3.03.

Target price is $2.54 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: $1.08
If AVN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.58, suggesting upside of 76.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BEN as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has taken on the role of most bearish banking sector analyst thus far in Australia with its latest update forecasting "significant downside risk". Worst case scenario, highlight the analysts, credit losses for the Big Four could accumulate to -$137bn over five years, more than double the suffering during the GFC.

Were such a scenario to unfold, banks would need to "aggressively" reduce their dividend, and potentially raise $5-10bn on top, each.

On the positive side, all banks are expected to remain profitable. Though at the recession's peak impact, Macquarie calculates earnings will fall to near zero, shrinking the banks' ability to pay a dividend to shareholders. As per always, CommBank is expected to perform most resiliently.

Macquarie sees value in bank share prices on a five year horizon, but continues to see downside shorter term. Neutral rating retained for Bendalaide Bank, with $6 price target.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $6.12 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.31, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Buy (1) -

Citi's commodity analysts have shifted from a base case to a bear case in the short term, leading to cuts to all metal and mineral price forecasts and a subsequent cut to earnings for the miners, net of forex.

For iron ore, earnings actually rise initially on a mark-to-market basis, but the broker expects the price to fall to US$70/t. BHP Group earnings forecasts up 6% in FY20 and down -14% in FY21. Buy and $35 target retained.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $30.05 Difference: $4.95
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.79, suggesting upside of 25.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOQ as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has taken on the role of most bearish banking sector analyst thus far in Australia with its latest update forecasting "significant downside risk". Worst case scenario, highlight the analysts, credit losses for the Big Four could accumulate to -$137bn over five years, more than double the suffering during the GFC.

Were such a scenario to unfold, banks would need to "aggressively" reduce their dividend, and potentially raise $5-10bn on top, each.

On the positive side, all banks are expected to remain profitable. Though at the recession's peak impact, Macquarie calculates earnings will fall to near zero, shrinking the banks' ability to pay a dividend to shareholders. As per always, CommBank is expected to perform most resiliently.

Macquarie sees value in bank share prices on a five year horizon, but continues to see downside shorter term. Neutral rating retained for Bank of Queensland, with $5.50 price target.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.86 Difference: $0.64
If BOQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.43, suggesting upside of 32.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Buy (1) -

Citi does not expect APRA to follow the RBNZ's lead in suspending bank dividend payments, as too many self-funded retirees rely on that income with the cash rate at 0.25%. The regulator has indeed flagged an opposite capital approach -- easing the timing on "unquestionably strong" levels in the face of the crisis.

The broker nevertheless believes the banks were preparing for dividend cuts in the second half as bad debts mount, but may now pull those forward to the first half given the loss of NZ dividends. To that end the broker has cut dividend assumptions by -10-18% for ANZ Bank, National Bank and Westpac.

Buy and $68.75 target retained for Commonwealth Bank. No change to dividend forecasts.

Target price is $68.75 Current Price is $59.76 Difference: $8.99
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $62.71, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CBA as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie has taken on the role of most bearish banking sector analyst thus far in Australia with its latest update forecasting "significant downside risk". Worst case scenario, highlight the analysts, credit losses for the Big Four could accumulate to -$137bn over five years, more than double the suffering during the GFC.

Were such a scenario to unfold, banks would need to "aggressively" reduce their dividend, and potentially raise $5-10bn on top, each.

On the positive side, all banks are expected to remain profitable. Though at the recession's peak impact, Macquarie calculates earnings will fall to near zero, shrinking the banks' ability to pay a dividend to shareholders. As per always, CommBank is expected to perform most resiliently.

Macquarie sees value in bank share prices on a five year horizon, but continues to see downside shorter term. Underperform rating retained for CommBank, with $57 price target.

Target price is $57.00 Current Price is $59.76 Difference: minus $2.76 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $62.71, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CCP as Hold (3) -

The company recently withdrew FY20 guidance. Morgans notes collections will be under pressure in the short to medium term and lending volumes are likely to be reduced. Bad debts may rise.

While the company will be impacted by escalating unemployment and virus-related uncertainties it is expected to return to a strong earnings growth profile from FY22.

Morgans maintains a Hold rating and reduces the target to $17.70 from $35.50.

Target price is $17.70 Current Price is $12.33 Difference: $5.37
If CCP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.50, suggesting upside of 82.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CLW as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT has long lease terms and strong tenant covenants. The balance sheet is also strong, Macquarie observes, with no refinancing risk until FY23.

One of the key risks is pub/hotels, which provide 13% of earnings. While it is unclear how much funding landlords will provide, the broker notes this will have a short-term impact.

Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral as Macquarie expects the solid balance sheet will underpin the distribution in the medium term and the risk from rental abatements is lower versus peers. Target is reduced to $5.50 from $5.61.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $1.33
If CLW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.84, suggesting upside of 40.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

Citi's commodity analysts have shifted from a base case to a bear case in the short term, leading to cuts to all metal and mineral price forecasts and a subsequent cut to earnings for the miners, net of forex.

For iron ore, earnings actually rise initially on a mark-to-market basis, but the broker expects the price to fall to US$70/t. Fortescue Metals' earnings forecasts up 14% in FY20 and up 6% in FY21. Neutral and $10.50 target retained.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $10.52 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.24, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GXY as Neutral (3) -

Citi's commodity analysts have shifted from a base case to a bear case in the short term, leading to cuts to all metal and mineral price forecasts and a subsequent cut to earnings for the miners, net of forex.

Galaxy Resources earnings forecasts up 27% in FY20 and down -7% in FY21. Neutral retained, target falls to $1.00 from $1.20.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $0.19
If GXY meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.01, suggesting upside of 24.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HVN as Hold (3) -

Harvey Norman has cancelled the dividend and the board has foregone pay, reflecting the heightened uncertainty from the current crisis.

While the business has enjoyed some of the benefit of the move to working from home, Ord Minnett notes its product range is also quite discretionary.

Store closures continue across 72% of the company's international store network.

However, online trading has now become permissible for essential products in New Zealand, which includes computers, heaters and white goods. Hold rating and $3 target maintained.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.26
If HVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.65, suggesting upside of 33.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IEL as Upgrade to Buy from Sell (1) -

While the next 6-9 months will be challenging, UBS assesses the $190m capital raising and incremental debt facilities provide ample flexibility.

While student-related revenue should return to normal after the coronavirus disruptions, the broker envisages some risk to business/immigration related IELTS testing.

Valuation previously held UBS back but now the stock is trading on an FY22 PE estimate of 22.6x the rating is upgraded to Buy from Sell. Target is reduced to $13.95 from $18.90.

Target price is $13.95 Current Price is $13.84 Difference: $0.11
If IEL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.36, suggesting upside of 25.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IFL as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Ord Minnett upgrades to Hold from Lighten. Earnings estimates are reduced as a result of marking to market.

The broker suspects the current crisis will likely change the short-term focus of the corporate and prudential regulators.

There remains some risk the market slump may create other issues within the sector, but large operators such as IOOF are likely to fare better than smaller ones in the broker's opinion. Target is reduced to $4.50 from $7.00.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.37 Difference: $1.13
If IFL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.36, suggesting upside of 59.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ILU as Buy (1) -

Citi's commodity analysts have shifted from a base case to a bear case in the short term, leading to cuts to all metal and mineral price forecasts and a subsequent cut to earnings for the miners, net of forex.

Iluka Resources' earnings forecasts down -5% in FY20 and up 15% in FY21. Buy retained, target falls to $9.40 from $9.80.

Target price is $9.40 Current Price is $7.03 Difference: $2.37
If ILU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.98, suggesting upside of 42.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHG as Buy (1) -

The broker has marked to market and cut funds flow and performance fee assumptions for Janus Henderson, leading to -27-29% earnings forecast cuts. Given ongoing market volatility and the fund manager's high beta exposure, downside risk remains.

However the balance sheets is sound, and the broker sees the company as well-placed for a market recovery. Buy retained on undemanding valuation, target falls to $31.10 from $42.10.

Target price is $31.10 Current Price is $22.95 Difference: $8.15
If JHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.44, suggesting upside of 54.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MGR as Buy (1) -

UBS revises earnings estimates to reflect the uncertainty around the current crisis. The company is in a strong position to outperform, with low gearing and the weighting to office/industrial, in the broker's view.

Moreover, the residential division is well diversified. However, increasing unemployment is expected to impact on residential sales, although this may allow larger operators to increase their market share materially and acquire sites on attractive terms.

Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.80 from $3.49.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $1.99 Difference: $0.81
If MGR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.00, suggesting upside of 50.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MGX as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Citi's commodity analysts have shifted from a base case to a bear case in the short term, leading to cuts to all metal and mineral price forecasts and a subsequent cut to earnings for the miners, net of forex.

For iron ore, earnings actually rise initially on a mark-to-market basis, but the broker expects the price to fall to US$70/t. My Gibson Iron's earnings forecasts are also impacted by the virus disrupting volumes on Koolan Island, but given the company has $400m in cash, its in a very different situation to peers.

A big fall in share price leads the broker to upgrade to Neutral (High Risk) from Sell. Target falls to 75c from 80c.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.65 Difference: $0.15
If MGX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

The company has acquired the Bungaroo South iron ore project for $20m and will share capital expenditure costs at Iron Valley.

In another of three separate transactions with BCI Minerals ((BCI)) payment related to the Kumina acquisition will be accelerated.

Macquarie assesses the acquisition of the Bungaroo South deposit has doubled iron ore reserves and increased resources by 75%.

The broker maintains an Outperform rating, noting earnings upgrade momentum beyond FY20 is strong. Target is raised to $20.50 from $20.20.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $14.99 Difference: $5.51
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.83, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Buy (1) -

Citi does not expect APRA to follow the RBNZ's lead in suspending bank dividend payments, as too many self-funded retirees rely on that income with the cash rate at 0.25%. The regulator has indeed flagged an opposite capital approach -- easing the timing on "unquestionably strong" levels in the face of the crisis.

The broker nevertheless believes the banks were preparing for dividend cuts in the second half as bad debts mount, but may now pull those forward to the first half given the loss of NZ dividends. To that end the broker has cut dividend assumptions by -10-18% for ANZ Bank, National Bank and Westpac.

Buy and $25.50 target retained for NAB.

Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $15.50 Difference: $10
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.79, suggesting upside of 27.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NAB as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has taken on the role of most bearish banking sector analyst thus far in Australia with its latest update forecasting "significant downside risk". Worst case scenario, highlight the analysts, credit losses for the Big Four could accumulate to -$137bn over five years, more than double the suffering during the GFC.

Were such a scenario to unfold, banks would need to "aggressively" reduce their dividend, and potentially raise $5-10bn on top, each.

On the positive side, all banks are expected to remain profitable. Though at the recession's peak impact, Macquarie calculates earnings will fall to near zero, shrinking the banks' ability to pay a dividend to shareholders. As per always, CommBank is expected to perform most resiliently.

Macquarie sees value in bank share prices on a five year horizon, but continues to see downside shorter term. Outperform rating retained for National Australia Bank, with $17 price target.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $15.50 Difference: $1.5
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.79, suggesting upside of 27.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHC as Buy (1) -

Citi's commodity analysts have shifted from a base case to a bear case in the short term, leading to cuts to all metal and mineral price forecasts and a subsequent cut to earnings for the miners, net of forex.

New Hope Corp's earnings forecasts up 14% in FY20 and down -9% in FY21. Buy and $1.70 target retained.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: $0.26
If NHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.75, suggesting upside of 21.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NHF as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

A drop in private health insurance claim costs is increasingly likely, although UBS suggests the potential earnings implications are less clear.

Moreover, postponing premium rises, providing hardship relief and other initiatives could reduce net benefits for listed insurers.

Hence, value upside appears constrained and the broker downgrades to Neutral from Buy. Target is raised to $5.10 from $4.75.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.90 Difference: $0.2
If NHF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.03, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NXT as Buy (1) -

NectDC's capital raising is bigger than the broker had forecast, but it removes balance sheet concerns, the broker notes, and sends a strong signal of its intention and ability to deliver material capacity. The acceleration of S3 ensures the company will not go "dark" in Sydney.

NextDC is not immune to a recession, but the broker highlights a recurring revenue base, earnings visibility, long term contracts and sticky customers as strengths. Buy retained. Target rises to $10.25 from $9.55.

Target price is $10.25 Current Price is $9.20 Difference: $1.05
If NXT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.29, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NXT as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

The company has raised $672m to provide flexibility and accelerate the development of S3. Macquarie notes demand from hyper-scale and enterprise customers remains strong.

NextDC is one of the few businesses to benefit from the current crisis and has reaffirmed FY20 guidance. Still, while remaining positive on the outlook, the broker considers the stock fully valued.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target lowered to $8.50 from $8.80.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $9.20 Difference: minus $0.7 (current price is over target).
If NXT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.29, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NXT as Overweight (1) -

The company has announced a $672m placement and share purchase plan which will be used to fund the development of S3. FY20 guidance is reiterated.

Further contract wins are expected in the near future which Morgan Stanley considers will be catalysts for the stock.

Overweight maintained. In-Line industry view. Target is $9.00.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $9.20 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If NXT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.29, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NXT as Hold (3) -

NextDC has announced a $672m capital raising to take advantage of its share price, as remote working has boomed during the coronavirus crisis.

Ord Minnett considers the capital raising inevitable as the company begins to builds out its third-generation data centres.

The broker maintains a Hold rating as the stock is now the most expensive data centre operator among global peers. Target is raised to $9.00 from $8.25.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $9.20 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If NXT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.29, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NXT as Buy (1) -

NextDC offers highly resilient earnings with low levels of churn, and a large portion of growth over the next 18 months is underpinned by contracted business.

UBS agrees that the current self-isolation situation will act to accelerate the structural shift to the cloud and enterprises moving to co-location data centres.

The capital raising of $672m is expected to increase balance sheet flexibility. The broker retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $10.25 from $9.10.

Target price is $10.25 Current Price is $9.20 Difference: $1.05
If NXT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.29, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORE as Buy (1) -

Citi's commodity analysts have shifted from a base case to a bear case in the short term, leading to cuts to all metal and mineral price forecasts and a subsequent cut to earnings for the miners, net of forex.

Buy (High Risk) retained for Orocobre. Target falls to $3.10 from $4.00.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.02 Difference: $1.08
If ORE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting upside of 58.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PAN as Neutral (3) -

The company has raised $20m through the sale of its listed investments and secured an additional $10m in debt.

Some of the funds will be used to close out the out-of-the-money nickel and copper hedge book.

However, Macquarie notes a slower ramp up at Savannah or spot prices not recovering in line with forecasts could still create a funding gap.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $0.13 from $0.20.

Target price is $0.13 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.01
If PAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Neutral (3) -

Citi's commodity analysts have shifted from a base case to a bear case in the short term, leading to cuts to all metal and mineral price forecasts and a subsequent cut to earnings for the miners, net of forex.

Neutral (High Risk) retained for Pilbara Minerals, target falls to 24c from 35c.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.03
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.29, suggesting upside of 38.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Citi's commodity analysts have shifted from a base case to a bear case in the short term, leading to cuts to all metal and mineral price forecasts and a subsequent cut to earnings for the miners, net of forex.

For iron ore, earnings actually rise initially on a mark-to-market basis, but the broker expects the price to fall to US$70/t. Rio Tinto earnings forecasts up 7.5% in FY20 and down -1% in FY21. Neutral and $100 target retained.

Target price is $100.00 Current Price is $88.43 Difference: $11.57
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $99.14, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Buy (1) -

Citi's commodity analysts have shifted from a base case to a bear case in the short term, leading to cuts to all metal and mineral price forecasts and a subsequent cut to earnings for the miners, net of forex.

South32 earnings forecasts down -11% in FY20 and down -34% in FY21. Buy retained, target falls to $2.60 from $3.10.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $1.83 Difference: $0.77
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.71, suggesting upside of 47.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SAR as Initiation of coverage with Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley initiates coverage with an Equal-weight rating and $4.15 target. The broker expects the company will beat multi-year guidance and modelled mine expansions.

The Super Pit is expected to provide 39% of Saracen's FY21 gold production.

The broker believes gold exposure is warranted during the current uncertainty and global quantitative easing should drive gold to fresh highs. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $3.77 Difference: $0.38
If SAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.45, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SBM as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes St Barbara is poised for a turnaround in FY21. The catalyst should be the completion of the Gwalia extension project in the June quarter, with Gwalia to improve throughout FY21.

Moreover, diversification and growth upside from Atlantic Gold should mean the stock re-rates. The broker initiates coverage with an Overweight rating and $3.30 target. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: $1.23
If SBM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.12, suggesting upside of 50.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SCG as Upgrade to Overweight from Underweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley upgrades to Overweight from Underweight, believing Scentre Group is one of the best placed stocks to outperform after the crisis has passed.

There is valuation support and the broker considers the demographics exposure enviable.

Morgan Stanley acknowledges retail sentiment is low and there are headwinds, but the company's shopping centres are located in the wealthiest suburbs.

Target is reduced to $2.20 from $3.11. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.60 Difference: $0.6
If SCG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.59, suggesting upside of 61.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SCP as Upgrade to Overweight from Underweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley upgrades to Overweight from Underweight, believing the company is one of the best placed to outperform after the crisis has passed.

The stock has one of the best defensive aspects, in terms of its shopping centres being located in regional areas where housing affordability and serviceability are superior compared with peers.

There is also the highest exposure to supermarkets and lowest exposure to the shrinking department store sector compared with the rest of the sector under the broker's coverage. In-Line industry view. Target is raised to $2.90 from $2.45.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.18 Difference: $0.72
If SCP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.77, suggesting upside of 26.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SHL as Overweight (1) -

The company has withdrawn guidance because of uncertainty. Morgan Stanley assesses the fundamentals for the longer term have not changed, although any potential upside from M&A in the short term may have dissipated.

The broker suspects FY22 is likely to be the first "normal" year upon which investors can focus to assess value.

That said, Sonic Healthcare should be one of the quickest to rebound after the crisis, in Morgan Stanley's view, given the mobility of sample collection/transfer and the sticky referral patterns.

Overweight maintained. Target is reduced to $26.90 from $27.10. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $26.90 Current Price is $22.40 Difference: $4.5
If SHL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.67, suggesting upside of 23.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STO as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett believes investors should take broad positions across the energy sector, to obtain leverage to a recovery in oil prices.

Santos is considered better placed versus peers given a reasonable balance sheet and up to 36% of projected revenue from fixed-price domestic contracts.

Accumulate maintained. Target is reduced to $7.00 from $7.60.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: $3.02
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.20, suggesting upside of 30.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TCL as Equal-weight (3) -

So far, Morgan Stanley notes the company's Australian toll roads are less affected by coronavirus isolation measures compared with global peers.

The broker considers Transurban's credit stress is manageable although, in a bear case scenario where further travel restrictions are contemplated, subsequent balance sheet repair could be required.

The broker expects intra-urban toll roads will have the fastest recovery trajectory compared with interurban roads and air travel.

Equal-weight. Industry view: Cautious. Target is reduced to $15.00 from $15.70.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $11.07 Difference: $3.93
If TCL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.09, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VCX as Neutral (3) -

UBS lowers estimates for FY20 and FY21 to reflect short-term rental abatements. The broker expects Vicinity Centres to enter a period of capital preservation.

Distribution estimates are lowered by -35% from FY21 and no distribution is expected in the second half of FY20.

Gearing is marginally higher than the sector average but UBS believes the capital position is sound.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $1.22 from $2.47.

Target price is $1.22 Current Price is $1.06 Difference: $0.16
If VCX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.82, suggesting upside of 71.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Buy (1) -

Citi does not expect APRA to follow the RBNZ's lead in suspending bank dividend payments, as too many self-funded retirees rely on that income with the cash rate at 0.25%. The regulator has indeed flagged an opposite capital approach -- easing the timing on "unquestionably strong" levels in the face of the crisis.

The broker nevertheless believes the banks were preparing for dividend cuts in the second half as bad debts mount, but may now pull those forward to the first half given the loss of NZ dividends. To that end the broker has cut dividend assumptions by -10-18% for ANZ Bank, National Bank and Westpac.

Buy and $26.00 target retained for Westpac.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $15.46 Difference: $10.54
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.64, suggesting upside of 27.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WBC as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has taken on the role of most bearish banking sector analyst thus far in Australia with its latest update forecasting "significant downside risk". Worst case scenario, highlight the analysts, credit losses for the Big Four could accumulate to -$137bn over five years, more than double the suffering during the GFC.

Were such a scenario to unfold, banks would need to "aggressively" reduce their dividend, and potentially raise $5-10bn on top, each.

On the positive side, all banks are expected to remain profitable. Though at the recession's peak impact, Macquarie calculates earnings will fall to near zero, shrinking the banks' ability to pay a dividend to shareholders. As per always, CommBank is expected to perform most resiliently.

Macquarie sees value in bank share prices on a five year horizon, but continues to see downside shorter term. Neutral rating retained for Westpac, with $17 price target.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $15.46 Difference: $1.54
If WBC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.64, suggesting upside of 27.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WEB as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

The company has addressed liquidity for the short term and Credit Suisse upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. The main focus is now on managing the cash burn and collecting debts.

The broker assesses the market disruption could create a significant opportunity for the company's "bedbank" division by way of industry consolidation. The equity raising is expected to raise a total of $346m. Target is $4.50.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $1.8
If WEB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.23, suggesting upside of 242.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WEB as Hold (3) -

As travel markets are essentially shut down, Morgans notes the company will sustain a material unwinding of working capital, along with significant debtor risk. Consequently $345.8m of new capital has been raised to strengthen the balance sheet.

Given this will increase shares on issue by 150%, and following further downgrades to forecasts, Morgans reduces FY20, FY21 and FY22 estimates for earnings per share by -86.6%, -94.3% and -72.7% respectively.

The broker believes Webjet has now enough liquidity to weather the downturn in travel demand. Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $3.20 from $7.72.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0.5
If WEB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.23, suggesting upside of 242.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WHC as Neutral (3) -

Citi's commodity analysts have shifted from a base case to a bear case in the short term, leading to cuts to all metal and mineral price forecasts and a subsequent cut to earnings for the miners, net of forex.

Neutral and $2.20 target retained for Whitehaven Coal.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $0.2
If WHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.80, suggesting upside of 40.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates XRO as Overweight (1) -

The company is winning market share globally, and Morgan Stanley believes this is a rare opportunity for long-term investors.

The stock is considered defensive in an economic downturn, and while not immune from risk it is less impacted versus other technology peers because accounting software is critical to business, the broker contends.

Overweight rating maintained. Industry view is Attractive. Target is reduced to $80 from $90.

Target price is $80.00 Current Price is $65.99 Difference: $14.01
If XRO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $72.25, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources