Australian Broker Call

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August 10, 2020

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
CLW - Charter Hall Long Wale Reit Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate Ord Minnett
MIN - Mineral Resources Downgrade to Lighten from Hold Ord Minnett
REA - REA Group Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate Ord Minnett
SKO - Serko Upgrade to Buy from Hold Ord Minnett
ANN  ANSELL LIMITED

Commercial Services & Supplies

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Overnight Price: $39.23

Credit Suisse rates ANN as Outperform (1) -

Ansell will report its results on August 25. Credit Suisse forecasts EBIT of US$212m. A final dividend of US$0.30 per share is expected.

The broker is cautious about industrial growth but this is likely to be more than offset by strong demand for healthcare and single-use gloves.

While the pandemic has created unprecedented demand for PPE, the broker believes the increase in demand is structural and the focus on protective equipment globally will continue even as coronavirus subsides.

Target is increased $42.50 from $36.50. Outperformed retained.

Target price is $42.50 Current Price is $39.23 Difference: $3.27
If ANN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.41, suggesting downside of -16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 76.93 cents and EPS of 173.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 170.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 87.71 cents and EPS of 194.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 177.0, implying annual growth of 3.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 78.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BXB  BRAMBLES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $10.79

UBS rates BXB as Neutral (3) -

A survey of pallet users in the US found Brambles’ CHEP satisfaction levels to be the lowest. The brand no longer has a strong advantage in cost, notes the survey and expects price growths to moderate to 2% in FY21 from 4% in FY20.

UBS has reduced its earnings estimates to cater to the weaker read through from the survey and increasing lumber costs.

The broker remains concerned about the lack of operating leverage seen in the second half.

UBS maintains its Neutral rating with the target price reducing to $11.10 from $12.10.

Target price is $11.10 Current Price is $10.79 Difference: $0.31
If BXB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.47, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 83.25 cents and EPS of 71.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 43.11 cents and EPS of 77.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.1, implying annual growth of 4.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CLW  CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT

REITs

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Overnight Price: $4.97

Citi rates CLW as Buy (1) -

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT’s FY20 earnings and distribution were in-line with its guidance and matched with Citi's estimates. FY21 guidance has been provided with earnings expected at 29.1c per share.

The REIT received more than 99% of rent through the pandemic with negligible rent relief, reports the broker. This is expected to continue due to its strong tenant base and triple net leases.

Near term, the risk stems from the potential vacancy of the Virgin office asset in Brisbane. However, the portfolio also has the longest lease term in the sector, fortifying earnings.

The broker sees further upside to the shares due to organic earnings growth and acquisition capacity.

Citi retains its Buy rating with the target price increasing to $5.47 from $4.45.

Target price is $5.47 Current Price is $4.97 Difference: $0.5
If CLW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.25, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 29.50 cents and EPS of 29.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 30.70 cents and EPS of 30.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.9, implying annual growth of 4.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates CLW as Outperform (1) -

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT results were in line with expectations. Macquarie assesses the long duration of leases allows the company's equity investments to carry greater financial leverage.

The company has provided FY21 operating earnings guidance of more than 29.1c per security, or over 2.8% growth, and the broker suspects this will be one of the few A-REITs to do so.

This stems from a resilient tenant base. Macquarie continues to be attracted to the stable cash flows and believes the balance sheet is sustainable. Outperform rating retained. Target rises 13% to $5.59.

Target price is $5.59 Current Price is $4.97 Difference: $0.62
If CLW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.25, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 29.30 cents and EPS of 30.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 30.70 cents and EPS of 31.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.9, implying annual growth of 4.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates CLW as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

FY20 results were broadly in line. The FY21 outlook for a distribution of no less than 29.1c is slightly weaker than expected but Ord Minnett considers it probable the company has adopted conservative assumptions and therefore some upside is likely for earnings.

While the stock remains attractive, the broker believes this has been priced into the shares and downgrades to Hold from Accumulate. Target is raised to $4.73 from $4.48.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $4.73 Current Price is $4.97 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If CLW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.25, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 29.30 cents and EPS of 29.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 30.50 cents and EPS of 30.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.9, implying annual growth of 4.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates CLW as Neutral (3) -

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT announced its FY20 results, in-line with its pre-covid guidance. UBS suggests this highlights the REIT’s resilient asset and tenant mix.

Like for like rental growth was at 2.6% with negligible relief provided to tenants in FY20. Operating cash flow improved from FY19 levels.

The broker is pleased that the REIT has provided guidance for FY21 (hinting at earnings growth of more than 2.8%). 

The REIT has the highest gearing in the sector at 38% although the broker feels its long WALE provides income certainty.

UBS retains its Neutral rating with its target price decreasing to $5.20 from $5.45.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.97 Difference: $0.23
If CLW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.25, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 29.30 cents and EPS of 29.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 30.50 cents and EPS of 30.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.9, implying annual growth of 4.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL  CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences

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Overnight Price: $274.19

Credit Suisse rates CSL as Outperform (1) -

CSL will report its FY20 results on August 19. Credit Suisse expects EBIT of US$2.71bn and a final dividend of US$1.06.

The pandemic has created significant disruption to plasma supply and will lead to higher collection costs in the short term but the broker observes demand remains strong.

A pending shortage of immunoglobulin in the industry should also lead to price increases. Credit Suisse believes there is upside to the current valuation and retains an Outperform rating while the target is lowered to $320 from $323.

Target price is $320.00 Current Price is $274.19 Difference: $45.81
If CSL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $305.60, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 298.80 cents and EPS of 671.92 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 648.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 286.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 325.55 cents and EPS of 749.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 696.6, implying annual growth of 7.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 305.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG  INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $5.03

Citi rates IAG as Buy (1) -

Insurance Australia Group’s pre-released FY20 result has led Citi to increase its earnings forecast for FY21 while decreasing estimates for FY22.

Citi feels the short-term growth outlook for the insurer will be difficult with margins under pressure due to a deteriorating claims environment. While the pricing environment is strong, the broker sees risks ahead from struggling customers and affordability.

The insurer has made some provision for business interruption exposure. The broker thinks of this as a low-risk high impact item but acknowledges there will be uncertainty around the share price for some time.

Citi maintains its Buy rating with the target price increasing to $6.25 from $6.15.

Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $5.03 Difference: $1.22
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.89, suggesting upside of 17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 31.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.1, implying annual growth of 58.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 32.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of 6.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates IAG as Outperform (1) -

FY20 net profit was in line with forecasts and the company's July update. No final dividend was declared.

Credit Suisse observes Insurance Australia Group continues to benefit from 30-50 basis points of price-driven margin expansion but this is more than offset by lower investment yields and one-off reinsurance costs.

The company is setting the business up to navigate a challenging environment but Credit Suisse believes this is being incorrectly interpreted as a business in structural decline. Outperform rating maintained. Target is $6.25.

Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $5.03 Difference: $1.22
If IAG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.89, suggesting upside of 17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.1, implying annual growth of 58.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of 6.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates IAG as Neutral (3) -

FY20 results were consistent with pre-announcements. The main new information was the indication that future underlying margin definitions would assume zero reserve releases.

Macquarie notes ongoing concerns relating to future re-basing from the next group CEO and this keeps the recommendation at Neutral. Target is $5.50.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.03 Difference: $0.47
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.89, suggesting upside of 17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 30.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.1, implying annual growth of 58.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 30.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of 6.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Overweight (1) -

FY20 results show positive pricing and larger motor claims benefits from lower activity. Morgan Stanley assesses confidence is slowly emerging regarding the impact of business interruption from the pandemic.

A 15.5% FY21 margin is expected. The broker also notes the company has less price-sensitive personal lines customers and there is less likelihood of them downgrading cover because of the pandemic.

Insurance Australia Group incorporates a further $160m in pandemic-related exposure in premium liabilities for regulatory capital but this is not on the balance sheet as of June 2020.

Morgan Stanley retains its Overweight rating with a target price of $6.65. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $6.65 Current Price is $5.03 Difference: $1.62
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.89, suggesting upside of 17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.1, implying annual growth of 58.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of 6.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates IAG as Hold (3) -

Even though Insurance Australia Group’s FY20 result had been pre-released to the market and contained no real surprises, Morgans downgrades EPS estimates for FY21 and FY22 by -6% and -8% on more conservative top-line growth and margin assumptions.

The broker views a range of headwinds, including covid-19, as clouding the outlook for underlying earnings.

The analyst sees the key takeaway from the FY20 result is the significant 2H20 decline in the company's underlying insurance margin (UIM).

Underlying profitability was impacted by higher re-insurance costs, lower investment returns and a deterioration in the company's Australian commercial lines portfolio, according to Morgans.

The Hold rating is maintained. The target price is decreased to $5.39 from 5.82

Target price is $5.39 Current Price is $5.03 Difference: $0.36
If IAG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.89, suggesting upside of 17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 26.60 cents and EPS of 32.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.1, implying annual growth of 58.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 27.80 cents and EPS of 34.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of 6.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates IAG as Hold (3) -

FY20 results were pre-released. Management has noted pressure on underlying margins in Australia and slightly less in New Zealand. The main uncertainty is business interruption. Overall volumes were quite soft in the second half, the broker notes.

The company has stepped away from guidance because, in the broker's view, there is uncertainty around the economic environment and business interruption losses, which could result in the release of $265m in capital provisions.

Ord Minnett finds it difficult to be favourably disposed to the stock at current prices and retains a Hold rating. Target is reduced to $5.09 from $5.13.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $5.09 Current Price is $5.03 Difference: $0.06
If IAG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.89, suggesting upside of 17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.1, implying annual growth of 58.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of 6.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates IAG as Buy (1) -

Insurance Australia Group’s outlook has been impacted due to lower top-line growth, rising costs, an increase in long-tail claims and slowing reserve releases among other issues, reports UBS.

While headwinds will persist in the current economic climate, the broker expects FY21 to be a trough year in terms of margins. In the near term, a positive outcome on business interruption test cases would be a positive catalyst.

FY20 results were pre-announced with claims benefits being offset by provisions and abnormal expenses. The broker has increased its margin outlook in FY21 to 13.8% and further to 14.4% in FY22.

UBS reiterates its Buy rating with a target price of $6.10.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.03 Difference: $1.07
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.89, suggesting upside of 17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.1, implying annual growth of 58.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of 6.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN  MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $27.59

Ord Minnett rates MIN as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

Ord Minnett upgrades its iron ore price forecasts by 19% for 2021 to US$100/t, and by 10% for 2022 to US$86/t.

Despite factoring in 45% increases to earnings estimates for Mineral Resources in FY21, the broker believes valuation has not kept up with the share price.

Rating is downgraded to Lighten from Hold. Target is raised to $21.40 from $18.80.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $21.40 Current Price is $27.59 Difference: minus $6.19 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.67, suggesting downside of -19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 193.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 190.1, implying annual growth of 118.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 195.8, implying annual growth of 3.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 97.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MND  MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $8.39

Credit Suisse rates MND as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse retains a Neutral rating, reducing the target to $8.90 from $10.00. While maintaining revenue expectations across FY20-22 the broker reduces margin assumptions, which drives a downgrade to estimates of -11-16%.

A combination of competitive pressures and productivity challenges are likely to weigh. That said, the broker believes the sector has de-rated and valuation is clearly not as stretched relative to history. No obvious catalysts means Credit Suisse is on the sidelines for now.

Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $8.39 Difference: $0.51
If MND meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.53, suggesting upside of 24.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 35.45 cents and EPS of 47.59 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.5, implying annual growth of -24.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 41.64 cents and EPS of 55.89 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.3, implying annual growth of 36.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NEA  NEARMAP LTD

Software & Services

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Overnight Price: $2.33

Citi rates NEA as Buy (1) -

Citi sees Nearmap AI as a key enabler in the company moving to an insights/analytics provider than a content provider.

The broker is very impressed with Nearmap AI and thinks such new products will complement the company’s core imagery offering and drive earnings growth over the medium term.

The company will need to increase investment in product development as use cases rise.

Citi reaffirms its Buy rating with the target price increasing to $2.75 from $2.60.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.42
If NEA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.51, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 26.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 46.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -4.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NUF  NUFARM LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $4.14

Citi rates NUF as Buy (1) -

Nufarm is emerging from challenging agriculture and industry-related headwinds, points out Citi.

Europe is Nufarm’s largest profit driver, accounting for about 50% of the company’s valuation. However, Citi highlights the sustainability of the business’s earnings is uncertain due to the underperformance of its two acquired portfolios.

Cereals, Nufarm’s largest crop exposure in Europe, are expected to see a reduction in harvest. This, combined with covid-19, will see sales down circa -15% in the second half, believes Citi. Margins are expected to rebound in FY21.

The stock is trading at a trough and considered good value. Citi maintains its Buy rating with the target price decreasing to $5.50 from $6.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.14 Difference: $1.36
If NUF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.23, suggesting upside of 21.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 14.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 27.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 22.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWS  NEWS CORPORATION

Print, Radio & TV

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Overnight Price: $19.55

Credit Suisse rates NWS as Outperform (1) -

Fourth quarter results were ahead of Credit Suisse estimates. The performance of books was particularly seen as impressive while the beat to estimates was largely because of lower-than-expected costs at subscription video services.

The separation of Dow Jones into a separate reporting segment is aimed at generating a higher valuation and the broker assesses this view is not without merit.

Nevertheless, the existing valuation is retained pending further detail on the historical financials and growth trajectory. Outperform retained. Target is raised to $23.25 from $22.85.

Target price is $23.25 Current Price is $19.55 Difference: $3.7
If NWS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.04, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 29.73 cents and EPS of 47.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 49.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 35.68 cents and EPS of 82.62 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.0, implying annual growth of 73.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates NWS as Outperform (1) -

Fourth quarter results were ahead of expectations. The creation of the new reporting segment for Dow Jones and possible separation is also considered a positive.

Macquarie finds the pandemic continues to present challenges for earnings trends because of the impact on advertising revenue, newsstand circulations and pay-TV adoption.

A number of cost reduction programs are underway, however. Outperform rating retained. Target is raised to $24.16 from $23.18.

Target price is $24.16 Current Price is $19.55 Difference: $4.61
If NWS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.04, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 29.73 cents and EPS of 43.56 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 49.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 29.73 cents and EPS of 72.69 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.0, implying annual growth of 73.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates NWS as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley considers the fourth quarter results were incrementally positive. Still, the earnings outlook remains challenging.

The broker also notes new cost reduction targets for FY21-22 and considers the disclosure on the Wall Street Journal/Dow Jones is "helpful". Moreover, the earnings outlook for the company's most valuable asset, REA Group ((REA)), has improved.

Underweight rating and US$10 target maintained. Industry view: Attractive.

Current Price is $19.55. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $23.04, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 29.73 cents and EPS of 59.46 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 49.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.0, implying annual growth of 73.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PGH  PACT GROUP HOLDINGS LTD

Paper & Packaging

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Overnight Price: $2.11

Ord Minnett rates PGH as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett believes several business units that form Pact Group should experience strong demand as consumer trends have shifted because of the pandemic towards increased consumption of packaged food, home and personal care items.

Earnings forecasts for the second half of FY22 are increased accordingly. The company is scheduled to release its FY20 result on August 19.

Hold rating retained. Target is reduced to $2.35 from $2.65 as the model is rolled forward.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: $0.24
If PGH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.3, implying annual growth of 9.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REA  REA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate

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Overnight Price: $113.42

Credit Suisse rates REA as Neutral (3) -

FY20 numbers were slightly ahead of Credit Suisse estimates. Core Australian operations were in line at the EBITDA level while Asia and financial services beat estimates.

Results were supported by a strong rebound in residential listings with volumes up for the second half for both Sydney and Melbourne markets.

While the latest restrictions in Melbourne present a clear risk for the start of FY21, Credit Suisse is confident volumes will return once restrictions are relaxed.

The broker retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $109.00 from $110.30.

Target price is $109.00 Current Price is $113.42 Difference: minus $4.42 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $106.63, suggesting downside of -7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 130.00 cents and EPS of 236.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 236.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 122.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 169.00 cents and EPS of 307.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 310.7, implying annual growth of 31.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 177.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates REA as Neutral (3) -

FY20 results were ahead of Macquarie's estimates. The broker believes the company is well-placed to return to growth as the listing environment improves, but this is reflected in the price.

Recent listing activity has been resilient, although the broker expects volume declines of -15% will still occur in the December half year.

Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $110 from $95.

Target price is $110.00 Current Price is $113.42 Difference: minus $3.42 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $106.63, suggesting downside of -7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 114.60 cents and EPS of 229.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 236.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 122.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 221.70 cents and EPS of 316.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 310.7, implying annual growth of 31.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 177.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates REA as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects real estate activity will experience substantial growth and churn after pandemic restrictions ease, as this has been the precedent in a number of international markets.

The broker assesses the higher FY20 earnings base, which beat estimates, and cost reduction commentary reduces the risk. No earnings guidance was provided.

Overweight rating and $105 target maintained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $105.00 Current Price is $113.42 Difference: minus $8.42 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $106.63, suggesting downside of -7.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY21:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 236.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 122.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 310.7, implying annual growth of 31.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 177.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates REA as Hold (3) -

REA Group delivered revenue of $820.3m and a profit (normalised NPAT) of $268.9m, which was considered a relatively strong result by Morgans.

The broker notes the market was surprisingly more resilient than expected in the fourth quarter and expects the current focus on operational efficiencies and cost containment sets up the prospect of material margin accretion should listing volumes continue to show resilience.

Morgans highlights improvements were seen in the market prior to the pandemic and the market quickly rebounded out of the covid-19 weakness, with the company stating July listings were up 16% nationally.

It looks to the analyst as if cheap money outweighs other considerations. The Hold rating is maintained. The target price is increased to $104.8 from $95.83.

Target price is $104.80 Current Price is $113.42 Difference: minus $8.62 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $106.63, suggesting downside of -7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 126.00 cents and EPS of 235.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 236.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 122.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 171.00 cents and EPS of 308.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 310.7, implying annual growth of 31.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 177.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates REA as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett considers the outlook is positive, amid lower interest rates, lifestyle changes, stamp duty relief and well capitalised first time buyers clearing the supply chain and creating confidence for vendors.

The broker expects listings growth should begin again in the fourth quarter of 2020 and accelerate through 2021, primarily as mortgage holidays and lockdowns expire.

Still, a lack of valuation support leads the broker to downgrade to Hold from Accumulate. Target is raised to $104 from $100.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $104.00 Current Price is $113.42 Difference: minus $9.42 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $106.63, suggesting downside of -7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 240.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 236.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 122.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 322.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 310.7, implying annual growth of 31.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 177.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates REA as Neutral (3) -

REA Group’s June quarter beat UBS’s estimate by quite a margin, mostly driven by listings growth. The group has also pointed towards less than estimated costs for FY21, led by temporary reductions in bonuses and organisational restructure.

On the flip side, the group has delayed increasing its prices. Originally scheduled for July 2020, the increases have been delayed to FY22 due to the current environment, reports the broker.

UBS’s FY21 forecasts mostly remain the same. The broker reaffirms its Neutral rating with a target price of $107.

Target price is $107.00 Current Price is $113.42 Difference: minus $6.42 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $106.63, suggesting downside of -7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 120.00 cents and EPS of 240.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 236.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 122.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.6.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 150.00 cents and EPS of 300.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 310.7, implying annual growth of 31.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 177.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SCG  SCENTRE GROUP

REITs

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Overnight Price: $1.92

Macquarie rates SCG as Neutral (3) -

Cash flow in the first half was broadly in line with Macquarie's expectations and represents cash collections of around 50% to the second quarter.

The structural issues confronting retail are unfolding as expected, which the broker expects will place further stress on the balance sheet. The offset is valuation support.

While cash flow is poor in the first half, an improvement is expected in the second half because of the receipt of deferred rental assistance. Neutral retained. Target is $2.28.

Target price is $2.28 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: $0.36
If SCG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.40, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.90 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.9, implying annual growth of -15.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 22.80 cents and EPS of 23.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of 13.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHL  SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $33.12

UBS rates SHL as Sell (5) -

UBS forecasts revenue growth of 10% for Sonic Healthcare in FY20, mostly driven by pathology in the second half. Earnings for the year are expected to be down -7% versus last year.

The broker assumes covid-19 testing rates to keep increasing in the third quarter of 2020 before declining in the last quarter of the year. The increase in testing revenues in FY21 will be somewhat offset by routine volume declines, expects the broker.

The company will announce its FY20 results on August 20.

Considering the pathology valuation looks full, UBS retains its Sell rating with a target price of $28.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $33.12 Difference: minus $5.12 (current price is over target).
If SHL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.23, suggesting downside of -7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 107.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.6, implying annual growth of -11.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.2.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 88.00 cents and EPS of 122.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 129.8, implying annual growth of 19.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 92.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SKO  SERKO LIMITED

Software & Services

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Overnight Price: $3.01

Ord Minnett rates SKO as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Ord Minnett suspects the market may be overlooking the technology growth story the company presents.

Serko has a dominant online booking tool in the Australasian corporate travel segment and the deal with Booking.com announced in October 2019 has potential to transform the business.

Ord Minnett upgrades to Buy from Hold and raises the target to $5.51 from $3.70, expecting the stock to outperform once concerns over the pandemic ease.

Target price is $5.51 Current Price is $3.01 Difference: $2.5
If SKO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 83% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of minus 13.24 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 22.73.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of minus 2.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 102.66.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
ANN Ansell $39.93 Credit Suisse 42.50 36.50 16.44%
BHP BHP $39.86 Ord Minnett 43.00 42.00 2.38%
BXB Brambles $10.97 UBS 11.10 12.10 -8.26%
CLW Charter Hall Long Wale Reit $4.77 Citi 5.47 4.45 22.92%
Macquarie 5.59 4.94 13.16%
Ord Minnett 4.73 4.48 5.58%
UBS 5.20 5.45 -4.59%
CSL CSL $280.09 Credit Suisse 320.00 323.00 -0.93%
FMG Fortescue $18.49 Ord Minnett 18.60 15.60 19.23%
IAG Insurance Australia $5.02 Citi 6.25 6.15 1.63%
Morgan Stanley 6.65 6.55 1.53%
Morgans 5.39 5.82 -7.39%
Ord Minnett 5.09 5.13 -0.78%
MIN Mineral Resources $28.05 Ord Minnett 21.40 18.80 13.83%
MND Monadelphous Group $8.47 Credit Suisse 8.90 10.00 -11.00%
NEA Nearmap $2.46 Citi 2.75 2.60 5.77%
NUF Nufarm $4.30 Citi 5.50 6.00 -8.33%
NWS News Corp $20.93 Credit Suisse 23.25 22.85 1.75%
Macquarie 24.16 23.18 4.23%
PGH Pact Group $2.10 Ord Minnett 2.35 2.65 -11.32%
REA REA Group $114.66 Credit Suisse 109.00 110.30 -1.18%
Macquarie 110.00 95.00 15.79%
Morgans 104.80 95.83 9.36%
Ord Minnett 104.00 100.00 4.00%
UBS 107.00 100.00 7.00%
RIO Rio Tinto $102.01 Ord Minnett 120.00 115.00 4.35%
SKO Serko $2.99 Ord Minnett 5.51 3.70 48.92%
Summaries
ANN Ansell Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $39.23
BXB Brambles Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $10.79
CLW Charter Hall Long Wale Reit Buy - Citi Overnight Price $4.97
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.97
Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.97
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $4.97
CSL CSL Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $274.19
IAG Insurance Australia Buy - Citi Overnight Price $5.03
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $5.03
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.03
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $5.03
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $5.03
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $5.03
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $5.03
MIN Mineral Resources Downgrade to Lighten from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $27.59
MND Monadelphous Group Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $8.39
NEA Nearmap Buy - Citi Overnight Price $2.33
NUF Nufarm Buy - Citi Overnight Price $4.14
NWS News Corp Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $19.55
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $19.55
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $19.55
PGH Pact Group Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.11
REA REA Group Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $113.42
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $113.42
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $113.42
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $113.42
Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $113.42
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $113.42
SCG Scentre Group Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.92
SHL Sonic Healthcare Sell - UBS Overnight Price $33.12
SKO Serko Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.01
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

14

3. Hold

14

4. Reduce

1

5. Sell

2

Monday 10 August 2020

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.