Australian Broker Call
May 10, 2017
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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Last Updated: 12:03 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| AHY - | ASALEO CARE | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | Citi |
| CBA - | COMMBANK | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
| Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral | Macquarie | ||
| IPL - | INCITEC PIVOT | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
| Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral | Credit Suisse | ||
| NAB - | NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK | Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform | Macquarie |
| TWE - | TREASURY WINE ESTATES | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
| WBC - | WESTPAC BANKING | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie |
Citi rates AAD as Sell (5) -
In Citi's view, the latest trading update reveals multiple challenges for the new CEO including rain, reduced Theme Park demand and discounting. The analysts single out Gold Coast theme park challenges and suggest Village Roadshow ((VRL)) has a better strategy and thus a less bleak outlook for its adjacent theme parks.
The analysts state they are awaiting a sustained improvement in Main Event’s execution before they consider turning more positive on Ardent Leisure. In the meantime, a potential take-over play by fresh shareholder Ariadne is regarded as the main threat to their Sell rating (unchanged). Target loses 5c to $1.40.
Earnings estimates have been reduced. In the current context, and without an active corporate suitor, the stock is seen as expensive.
Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $2.09 Difference: minus $0.69 (current price is over target).
If AAD meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.85, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 4.50 cents and EPS of 3.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of -91.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 260.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.30 cents and EPS of 5.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.6, implying annual growth of 600.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates AAD as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse suspects the market acknowledges a short-term disconnect between earnings momentum and underlying value of the Dreamworld asset.
Improved momentum at the site was dealt a blow by Cyclone Debbie as visits declined In the key March-April period after progressively improving since the accident.
While downgrading estimates, Credit Suisse does not change its medium-term thesis. Outperform retained. Target is raised to $2.25 from $2.20.
Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $2.09 Difference: $0.16
If AAD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.85, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 2.97 cents and EPS of 4.05 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of -91.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 260.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 6.01 cents and EPS of 8.51 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.6, implying annual growth of 600.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates AAD as Hold (3) -
The impact from the Dreamworld tragedy on the company's near-term outlook is still uncertain as are the longer-term implications, in Deutsche Bank's view.
The broker expects numbers and earnings will remain volatile for some time. Moreover, the key to the company's performance, Main Event, has endured recent like-for-like weakness which raises concerns about the strategy.
Deutsche Bank retains a Hold rating and reduces the target to $1.95 from $2.10.
Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $2.09 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If AAD meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.85, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of -91.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 260.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.6, implying annual growth of 600.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates AAD as Neutral (3) -
The company's trading update indicated visits to theme parks were down -36.7% in March and April and revenue was down -38.9%. The weakness was attributed to customers deferring or cancelling plans because of the Cyclone Debbie.
Macquarie considers this inconsistent with feedback from Gold Coast hotel operators that reported strong trading in April.
Macquarie believes it is too early to call a step change for Main Event sales but does envisage the improving momentum in February and March is an early positive sign. The broker retains a Neutral rating. Target is lowered to $2.08 from $2.14.
Target price is $2.08 Current Price is $2.09 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If AAD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.85, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of -91.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 260.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 2.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.6, implying annual growth of 600.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates AHY as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -
Citi has downgraded to Sell from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $1.50. The analysts do not believe investors are sufficiently appreciating the risks and challenges that lay ahead for the company.
The analysts are anticipating weak results ahead and this can potentially lead to a derating for the shares. Following a strong rally, the shares are now deemed expensive. The dividend outlook remains stable.
Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: minus $0.405 (current price is over target).
If AHY meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.65, suggesting downside of -12.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 11.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.9, implying annual growth of 3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 11.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.3, implying annual growth of 3.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates BTT as Hold (3) -
The company will report its first half result on May 11and Morgans expects cash net profit to be down -4.8%. The lower-than-expected result has been affected by weaker performance fees but the broker expects underlying management fee growth of 12.3%.
Hold rating retained. Target rises to $12.62 from $10.65.
Target price is $12.62 Current Price is $12.78 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If BTT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $11.09, suggesting downside of -15.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 54.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.7, implying annual growth of 5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.1, implying annual growth of 17.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates CBA as Neutral (3) -
Following the March quarter trading update Credit Suisse downgrades FY17 earnings estimates by -1%. The broker observes decline in bad debt charges no longer offset softer revenues and this underscores how important the buoyancy of financial markets income has become.
The Neutral rating and $89 target are unchanged.
Target price is $89.00 Current Price is $82.02 Difference: $6.98
If CBA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $80.85, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 423.00 cents and EPS of 573.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 556.4, implying annual growth of 0.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 425.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 435.00 cents and EPS of 609.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 576.6, implying annual growth of 3.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 433.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates CBA as Hold (3) -
Deutsche Bank observes the March quarter trading update rounded off a soft reporting season for the major banks. Underlying revenue growth was weak while asset quality was strong and capital generation was well above average.
The broker downgrades forecasts for earnings per share by -1.1% and -2.6% for FY17 and FY18 respectively, calculating the bank offers a below-peer total return over the next three years and a price/earnings premium to peers of 9%. This ratio is expected to be maintained.
Hold retained. Target is reduced to $83.80 from $86.60.
Target price is $83.80 Current Price is $82.02 Difference: $1.78
If CBA meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $80.85, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 424.00 cents and EPS of 547.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 556.4, implying annual growth of 0.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 425.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 439.00 cents and EPS of 567.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 576.6, implying annual growth of 3.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 433.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates CBA as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -
The March quarter trading result was short of Macquarie's expectations and, similar to peers, the improving capital position and organic capital generation were the key positives. Should underlying results remain under pressure, the broker envisages risk to the bank's ability to maintain its premium over the medium term.
Separately, Macquarie notes the Commonwealth budget has put further pressure on the bank earnings outlook and the proposed bank levy will take -4-5% off earnings. The broker has become increasingly cautious about the sector in recent months.
The main near-term upside risk is that the changes announced in the budget are watered down, while the longer-term theme underpinning the broker's outlook remains in place.
Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral. Target is reduced to $81 from $85.
Target price is $81.00 Current Price is $82.02 Difference: minus $1.02 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $80.85, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 429.90 cents and EPS of 553.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 556.4, implying annual growth of 0.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 425.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 434.00 cents and EPS of 564.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 576.6, implying annual growth of 3.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 433.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -
Morgan Stanley believes there was little in the March quarter trading update to support the bank's stretched trading multiples and retains an Underweight rating.
The broker believes recent developments fundamentally alter the Australian mortgage market and housing loans account for around 60% of the bank's loan portfolio. Hence, the broker suspects the bank needs to slow growth more than peers.
The broker considers the Commonwealth budget a negative for bank valuations, calculating the proposed levy would reduce major bank earnings by around -4.5% before any re-pricing offsets.
Target is $71. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $71.00 Current Price is $82.02 Difference: minus $11.02 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $80.85, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 428.00 cents and EPS of 556.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 556.4, implying annual growth of 0.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 425.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 440.00 cents and EPS of 571.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 576.6, implying annual growth of 3.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 433.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates CBA as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -
Cash earnings for the March quarter tracked in line with Morgans second half expectations. Income was a little softer than expected and credit impairment charges a little better than expected.
The broker upgrades to Add from Hold as a result of recent share price weakness. Cash earnings forecasts are reduced by -0.7% and -0.5% for FY17 and FY18 respectively.Target is lowered to $87.50 from $88.00.
Target price is $87.50 Current Price is $82.02 Difference: $5.48
If CBA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $80.85, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 422.00 cents and EPS of 568.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 556.4, implying annual growth of 0.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 425.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 424.00 cents and EPS of 601.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 576.6, implying annual growth of 3.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 433.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CBA as Hold (3) -
Ord Minnett analysts note Q3 performance proved slightly below consensus expectations. In addition, the stock is seen as expensive. Hold rating retained. Target remains $76.50. Estimates have been slightly raised.
Target price is $76.50 Current Price is $82.02 Difference: minus $5.52 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $80.85, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 420.00 cents and EPS of 554.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 556.4, implying annual growth of 0.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 425.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 559.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 576.6, implying annual growth of 3.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 433.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CBA as Neutral (3) -
CBA's quarterly earnings fell short of the broker's and consensus FY run rate. The March Q is typically the softest but the result was weaker than the broker expected. Trading income was not as prominent as that of the other banks, and the insurance arm will take a hit on Debbie.
The broker expects slow revenue growth to be offset by a focus on costs, but remains wary of the impact of APRA tightening and the vulnerability of the housing market in general. The broker is cautious on the sector. Neutral rating and $83 target retained for CBA.
Target price is $83.00 Current Price is $82.02 Difference: $0.98
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $80.85, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 438.00 cents and EPS of 552.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 556.4, implying annual growth of 0.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 425.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 443.00 cents and EPS of 566.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 576.6, implying annual growth of 3.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 433.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates CWN as Buy (1) -
Crown has now definitely cut all ties with ex-partner Melco. The sale of the final shares in Melco Resorts generated a higher than expected return. Citi's valuation and price target increase to $14.50 from $14.40. Buy rating retained.
The analysts note they also have reduced operational estimates. Their Buy rating remains supported by near-term capital management potential plus potential upside from costout, plus ongoing yield appeal.
Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $12.71 Difference: $1.79
If CWN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.49, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 143.00 cents and EPS of 52.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.7, implying annual growth of -27.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 127.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 55.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.2, implying annual growth of -36.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates CWN as Buy (1) -
Crown has sold the remaining 11.2% interest in Melco Resorts for $1.34bn. Deutsche Bank considers this a minor positive, albeit largely anticipated.
Proceeds will be used to re-pay debt and the broker suspects the company will consider a special dividend, as the share buy-back is only 19% complete. Buy rating and $13.72 target retained.
Target price is $13.72 Current Price is $12.71 Difference: $1.01
If CWN meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.49, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 143.00 cents and EPS of 50.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.7, implying annual growth of -27.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 127.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.2, implying annual growth of -36.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates CWN as Neutral (3) -
Crown has disposed of its residual holding in Melco, generating proceeds of $1.34bn that are earmarked for debt reduction. Macquarie believes the company's debt and liquidity metrics make it well-placed to meet its capital expenditure commitments.
The broker considers the commitment to the two Australian assets and retreat from the more volatile Melco venture are key positives. Neutral rating retained. Target rises to $13.30 from $13.00.
Target price is $13.30 Current Price is $12.71 Difference: $0.59
If CWN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.49, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 143.00 cents and EPS of 49.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.7, implying annual growth of -27.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 127.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 57.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.2, implying annual growth of -36.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CWN as Hold (3) -
Crown will be receiving a total of $1.34bn for its exit from former partner Melco Resorts & Entertainment and Ord Minnett has second thoughts about the outlook. While these proceeds alleviate balance sheet pressure and make Crown's capex intentions less dependable on debt, there also remains the loss of exposure to higher growth and an elevated share price valuation.
Ord Minnett has pared back future growth expectations. The analysts note the dollar value of foregone dividends is greater than the dollar value of debt reduction and thus the exit represents a short-term negative.
Hold rating and $13 price target left untouched.
Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $12.71 Difference: $0.29
If CWN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.49, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 140.00 cents and EPS of 335.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.7, implying annual growth of -27.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 127.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.2, implying annual growth of -36.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates DOW as Hold (3) -
The investor briefing revealed all divisions performing well with opportunities to grow, Deutsche Bank observes. Resource-exposed divisions now appear to have a better outlook.
Including the acquisition of Spotless ((SPO)) on a pro forma basis, the broker estimates the stock is trading on a 12-month forward price/earnings ratio of 14x, which is considered fair given the acquisition integration risks.
Hold retained. Target rises to $5.91 from $5.49.
Target price is $5.91 Current Price is $6.12 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If DOW meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.13, suggesting downside of -3.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.0, implying annual growth of -10.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.1, implying annual growth of 11.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates DOW as Neutral (3) -
The company had an upbeat tone at the investor briefing, Macquarie observes, noting a growing tender pipeline. Guidance for FY17 has been maintained. Mining has witnessed an uptick in the last 6-8 months, in terms of activity, with strip ratios catching up.
Macquarie now estimates around one third of the company's revenues are exposed to Australian infrastructure or around 20% post the potential acquisition of Spotless ((SPO)). Neutral retained. Target is $6.30.
Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $6.12 Difference: $0.18
If DOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.13, suggesting downside of -3.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 21.80 cents and EPS of 36.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.0, implying annual growth of -10.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.20 cents and EPS of 45.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.1, implying annual growth of 11.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FPH FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED
Medical Equipment & Devices
Overnight Price: $9.52
Deutsche Bank rates FPH as Hold (3) -
Deutsche Bank believes the re-rating of the share price since November is warranted, supported by improved fundamentals and a strong near-term outlook from a lower NZ dollar and a good flu season.
The main risk is the litigation with ResMed ((RMD)) but this has also reduced since November, as a proportion of sales from the Simplus and Eson masks, the subject of the litigation, appears to have fallen.
Hold rating retained. Target rises to NZ$10.07 from NZ$9.00.
Current Price is $9.52. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 19.82 cents and EPS of 28.32 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.8, implying annual growth of 20.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.33 cents and EPS of 30.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.3, implying annual growth of 16.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates IPL as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -
Citi analysts applaud management for delivering on its growth strategy thus far. They note the last of three key assets (WALA) is forecast to ramp up to its targeted 800ktpa operating capacity by the end of FY17.
But now what? The analysts seem to suggest a new strategy is lacking. Luckily, the fertiliser price seems to have bottomed. Increased forecasts are premised on the latter. Target price gains 9c to $4.09.
Target price is $4.09 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $0.29
If IPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.80, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.70 cents and EPS of 21.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of 161.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.70 cents and EPS of 25.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.8, implying annual growth of 19.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates IPL as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -
Credit Suisse is not enthusiastic about the first half result, despite the company's upbeat outlook. The broker believes balancing growth desires with the market reality is likely to be the key to shareholder returns.
The earnings outlook is little changed while the explosives markets continue to be a volume story. Hence, Credit Suisse downgrades its rating to Underperform from Neutral and reduces the target to $3.37 from $3.58.
Target price is $3.37 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: minus $0.43 (current price is over target).
If IPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.80, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 20.88 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of 161.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.60 cents and EPS of 21.11 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.8, implying annual growth of 19.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates IPL as Buy (1) -
The first half result was broadly in line with forecasts although Deutsche Bank observes it was boosted by the KBR damages of US$35m. North American explosives earnings were above forecasts while Asia-Pacific was in line and fertiliser earnings were below.
The outlook commentary is more positive than the norm, the broker observes, but this needs to be balanced against the recent decline in fertiliser prices. Buy rating retained. Target is $4.35.
Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $0.55
If IPL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.80, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of 161.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.8, implying annual growth of 19.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates IPL as Outperform (1) -
First half results were ahead of Macquarie's estimates. The broker notes the tone of the outlook was the most positive it has been for years and reflects a combination of a strong US quarry & construction market and recovering coal markets.
Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $4.10 from $3.95. The broker believes the stock provides good exposure to a positive US outlook, with the latter accounting for 45% of FY18 estimated EBIT.
Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $0.3
If IPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.80, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.50 cents and EPS of 18.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of 161.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.50 cents and EPS of 23.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.8, implying annual growth of 19.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates IPL as Underweight (5) -
The first half result reflected the impact of a challenging operating environment, in Morgan Stanley's belief. Underlying net profit declined around 19%.
Despite an upbeat outlook from the company, the broker observes spot pricing from many of the key fertiliser exposures is rapidly deteriorating and adding considerable risk to the second half.
The broker retains an Underweight rating and Cautious industry view. The target is $2.53.
Target price is $2.53 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: minus $1.27 (current price is over target).
If IPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.80, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of 161.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.8, implying annual growth of 19.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates IPL as Buy (1) -
Underlying, the reported financial performance fell short of expectations. The analysts laud management's achievement under the so-called BEx Organisation Focused Improvement Program.
The analysts have not yet incorporated management's guidance for a further net benefit of $25m annually from FY18 onwards. If achieved, this represents meaningful upside to forecasts, acknowledge the analysts.
Buy rating and $4.25 price target left unchanged. Only small changes have been made to estimates at this stage.
Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $0.45
If IPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.80, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of 161.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.8, implying annual growth of 19.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates IPL as Neutral (3) -
Incitec's flat earnings in the first half fell -10% short of the broker, even taking damages paid for delays in Louisiana into account. Lower DAP prices, the impact of plant turnarounds at Moranbah and Phosphate Hill and weather all played their part.
This was offset by impressive cost reductions on productivity improvements. Earnings are heavily skewed to the second half and the broker has made minimal changes. A fully operational Louisiana plant should provide capital management and/or growth initiatives from next year, the broker suggests.
Neutral retained. Target rises to $4.00 from $3.80.
Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $0.2
If IPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.80, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of 161.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.50 cents and EPS of 24.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.8, implying annual growth of 19.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates MGR as Neutral (3) -
Citi analysts see risk to Mirvac missing its own guidance for FY17. Apart from tightening lending conditions, the analysts estimate the company needs to settle 1,133 MPC lots and 402 apartments in 4Q to hit FY17 volume guidance for 3,300 lots.
The above, explain the analysts, represent the highest ever Q4 lot settlements required. Last time Mirvac found itself in a similar position, the company slightly missed, the analysts point out.
The concern comes on top of Citi's conviction the domestic housing cycle has now peaked. The analysts prefer Stockland ((SGP)) for residential exposure. Neutral rating retained.Target $2.25 (unchanged).
Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If MGR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.36, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.40 cents and EPS of 14.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.5, implying annual growth of -44.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.70 cents and EPS of 14.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.2, implying annual growth of -1.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates MYR as Buy (1) -
The company is scheduled to report Q3 FY17 sales on Friday and Citi analysts predict sales of $663m, representing a decline of -1.9% on the prior year.
Like-for-like sales are projected to decline by -0.9%. If correct this represents a deceleration on the -0.5% LFL sales result from 2Q17, point out the analysts.
Buy rating and $1.30 price target retained.
Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.99 Difference: $0.315
If MYR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.16, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.6, implying annual growth of 11.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 9.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.5, implying annual growth of 10.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates NAB as Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform (5) -
Macquarie notes the Commonwealth budget has put further pressure on the bank earnings outlook and the proposed bank levy will take -4-5% off earnings. The broker has become increasingly cautious about the sector in recent months.
The main near-term upside risk is that the changes announced in the budget are watered down, while the longer-term theme underpinning the broker's outlook remains in place.
Earnings pressure from the announcement is expected to put the spotlight on NAB's dividend and Macquarie envisages an increased likelihood the dividend will be cut. Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Outperform. Target is reduced to $31.50 from $34.00.
Target price is $31.50 Current Price is $32.42 Difference: minus $0.92 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $31.80, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 181.00 cents and EPS of 239.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 243.0, implying annual growth of -0.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 193.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 167.00 cents and EPS of 228.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 244.3, implying annual growth of 0.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 191.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates NXT as Buy (1) -
Citi analysts returned from a management briefing with two key quotes from CEO Craig Scroggie: "never seen an opportunity as big as this one" and a "huge few years ahead". The analysts agree here is a major opportunity up for grabs, but the shorter term is all about execution.
It must have pleased the analysts that all three major new data centres seem to be on schedule. Also, NextDC's direct exposure to electricity prices is no more than 20% of its total power costs, according to the company itself.
The analysts highlight the latter implies reduced risks in the face of the electricity crisis in Australia's East. Citi continues to see upside risk to management's guidance for FY17. Buy rating and $4.40 target retained.
Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.31 Difference: $0.09
If NXT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.43, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 74.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.3, implying annual growth of -10.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 82.4. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates PDN as Neutral (3) -
It would appear that while Paladin's bondholders are supportive of the company and prepared to restructure financing, they are not keen on a costly legal battle with CNNC. Hence Paladin will allow the independent valuation required ahead of CNNC exercising its 75% option, if that is what is to transpire.
The broker has lifted its own valuation to 28cps from 26cps to reflect the 2020 Kayelekera mine restart, but applies a -50% discount for restructure risk to arrive at a 12c target. Neutral retained with a High Risk warning.
Target price is $0.12 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: $0.015
If PDN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.14, suggesting upside of 33.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.99 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.69 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates PRY as Underperform (5) -
The removal of the freeze to the Medicare Benefits Schedule is positive for the sector and should alleviate the need to move to private billing, Credit Suisse observes. Nevertheless, the benefits will only start in FY19 for GP services and FY21 for imaging.
Underperform retained. Target rises to $3.40 from $3.35.
Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.75 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If PRY meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.54, suggesting downside of -7.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.80 cents and EPS of 17.51 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of 17.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 19.41 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.4, implying annual growth of 14.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates QUB as Buy (1) -
Altura Mining ((AJM)) has awarded Qube Holdings a five-year transport logistics services contract for its Pilgangoora lithium mine. Ord Minnett analysts estimate the contract could generate revenues of $5–$10m for Qube. Positive but too small to impact on estimates.
Ord Minnett suggests Qube won the contract because of its patented Rotabox technology. This technology allows for rotating container tippers with integrated lid lifters and, add the analysts, "revolutionised" the way concentrates are transported and loaded. Buy. Target $2.80 (unchanged).
Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: $0.14
If QUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.61, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.7, implying annual growth of -6.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.9, implying annual growth of 15.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates SHL as Neutral (3) -
The removal of the freeze to the Medicare Benefits Schedule is positive for the sector and should alleviate the need to move to private billing, Credit Suisse observes. Nevertheless, the benefits will only start in FY19 for GP services and FY21 for imaging.
Credit Suisse maintains a Neutral rating. Target rises to $22.60 from $22.20.
Target price is $22.60 Current Price is $22.95 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If SHL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $22.52, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 106.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.7, implying annual growth of -3.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 81.00 cents and EPS of 118.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 118.3, implying annual growth of 10.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 80.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates TWE as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -
The recent investor briefing provided a better explanation of the future growth strategy for Macquarie but risks to growth exist as the company relies increasingly on new regions and products to deliver upside.
The company has also announced changes in management, which flags a shift from restructuring to growth in the US but also indicates to the broker the company is planning for a CEO succession and this clouds the future.
Macquarie downgrades to Underperform from Neutral. Target is $10.98.
Target price is $10.98 Current Price is $12.93 Difference: minus $1.95 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $11.93, suggesting downside of -7.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 25.20 cents and EPS of 38.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.1, implying annual growth of 59.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.80 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.6, implying annual growth of 18.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates WBC as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
Macquarie notes the Commonwealth budget has put further pressure on the bank earnings outlook and the proposed bank levy will take -4-5% off earnings. The broker has become increasingly cautious about the sector in recent months.
The main near-term upside risk is that the changes announced in the budget are watered down, while the longer-term theme underpinning the broker's outlook remains in place.
Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is reduced to $33.00 from $35.50.
Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $32.88 Difference: $0.12
If WBC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.34, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 188.00 cents and EPS of 236.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.1, implying annual growth of 1.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 188.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 188.00 cents and EPS of 234.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 244.4, implying annual growth of 2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 188.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley believes a fundamental change in the mortgage market will weigh on the bank's growth prospects and returns. Downside risks to the share price are rising but the broker retains an Equal-weight rating, given a 5.5% yield, more focus on costs and stable credit quality.
Target is reduced to $30.10 from $30.60. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $30.10 Current Price is $32.88 Difference: minus $2.78 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $33.34, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 188.00 cents and EPS of 233.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.1, implying annual growth of 1.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 188.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 188.00 cents and EPS of 242.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 244.4, implying annual growth of 2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 188.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| AAD - | ARDENT LEISURE | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $2.09 |
| Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.09 | ||
| Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $2.09 | ||
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.09 | ||
| AHY - | ASALEO CARE | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $1.91 |
| BTT - | BT INVEST MANAGEMENT | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $12.78 |
| CBA - | COMMBANK | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $82.02 |
| Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $82.02 | ||
| Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $82.02 | ||
| Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $82.02 | ||
| Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $82.02 | ||
| Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $82.02 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $82.02 | ||
| CWN - | CROWN RESORTS | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $12.71 |
| Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $12.71 | ||
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $12.71 | ||
| Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $12.71 | ||
| DOW - | DOWNER EDI | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $6.12 |
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $6.12 | ||
| FPH - | FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $9.52 |
| IPL - | INCITEC PIVOT | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $3.80 |
| Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.80 | ||
| Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $3.80 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.80 | ||
| Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.80 | ||
| Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.80 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $3.80 | ||
| MGR - | MIRVAC | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $2.31 |
| MYR - | MYER | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $0.99 |
| NAB - | NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK | Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $32.42 |
| NXT - | NEXTDC | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $4.31 |
| PDN - | PALADIN | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $0.11 |
| PRY - | PRIMARY HEALTH CARE | Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.75 |
| QUB - | QUBE HOLDINGS | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.66 |
| SHL - | SONIC HEALTHCARE | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $22.95 |
| TWE - | TREASURY WINE ESTATES | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $12.93 |
| WBC - | WESTPAC BANKING | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $32.88 |
| Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $32.88 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 10 |
| 3. Hold | 19 |
| 5. Sell | 9 |
Wednesday 10 May 2017
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
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market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
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base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
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should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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