Australian Broker Call

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April 13, 2018

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

Last Updated: 12:07 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
CLW - CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT Upgrade to Buy from Neutral UBS
IFN - INFIGEN ENERGY Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Macquarie
PRY - PRIMARY HEALTH CARE Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold Ord Minnett
RIO - RIO TINTO Upgrade to Add from Hold Morgans
S32 - SOUTH32 Upgrade to Hold from Reduce Morgans
AZJ  AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $4.43

Morgans rates AZJ as Hold (3) -

Morgans believes the recent decline in the share price can be attributed to the UT5 draft decision, the finalisation of the buyback and the early closure of Cliffs.

At current share prices there may be valuation support but at this stage the broker finds it hard to get bullish on the stock. Target is reduced to $4.55 from $4.81. Hold maintained.

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $4.43 Difference: $0.12
If AZJ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.63, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.3, implying annual growth of -1.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BLD  BORAL LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $7.34

Citi rates BLD as Neutral (3) -

Citi suggests the takeover bid for USG by Germany's Knauf could trigger a positive re-rating of Boral. The deal would mean the 50:50 USG:Boral joint venture comes into play.

Strategically, the broker considers Boral well positioned, as it has the option of buying out the USG stake and running the business on its own. At this stage, the broker retains a Neutral rating and $7.32 target.

Target price is $7.32 Current Price is $7.34 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If BLD meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.15, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.50 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.9, implying annual growth of 33.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 45.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.6, implying annual growth of 24.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BTT  BT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $9.44

Morgan Stanley rates BTT as Overweight (1) -

The March quarter produced outflows for the UK/EU retail business of JO Hambro amid rising volatility. Morgan Stanley cuts forecasts for JO Hambro flows by -15%. The broker suspects fund specific issues will be negated by the strong performance and product breadth.

The broker believes the risks with the ending of the Westpac ((WBC)) relationship are largely incorporated in the share price. Overweight. Industry view: In-Line. Target is reduced to $12.00 from $13.20.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $9.44 Difference: $2.56
If BTT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.16, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 51.50 cents and EPS of 59.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.1, implying annual growth of 11.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 58.50 cents and EPS of 68.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.5, implying annual growth of 8.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates BTT as Add (1) -

JO Hambro continues to experience small outflows but Morgans does not believe this is a structural issue and flow should improve in line with market sentiment.

Nevertheless, the current weak market sentiment and the potential sell down of Westpac's ((WBC)) stake are likely to weigh in the short term. Add rating maintained and the target is reduced to $11.45 from $12.28.

Target price is $11.45 Current Price is $9.44 Difference: $2.01
If BTT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.16, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 59.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.1, implying annual growth of 11.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 64.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.5, implying annual growth of 8.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates BTT as Hold (3) -

Funds under management rose 1% in the March quarter. JO Hambro reported a consecutive quarter of outflows, not seen in almost 7 years of ownership by BT Investment Management, Ord Minnett observes. This was largely on the back of UK/Europe as there are strong flows in the US business.

The stock has de-rated meaningfully over the past month but the broker maintains a Hold rating, believing the share price will be under pressure in the near term given the flagged sell-down by Westpac ((WBC)). Target is reduced to $10.70 from $11.45.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $10.70 Current Price is $9.44 Difference: $1.26
If BTT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.16, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 66.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.1, implying annual growth of 11.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.5, implying annual growth of 8.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates BTT as Neutral (3) -

A mixed performance in the last 18 months has led to JOHCM experiencing its first funds outflows in the first half FY18, the broker notes. The broker expects funds growth to slow from here and suggests consensus performance fee expectations are at risk to the downside.

Neutral retained, target falls to $10.10 from $11.85.

Target price is $10.10 Current Price is $9.44 Difference: $0.66
If BTT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.16, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 58.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.1, implying annual growth of 11.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 58.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.5, implying annual growth of 8.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BUB  BUBS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Dairy

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Overnight Price: $0.81

Morgans rates BUB as Hold (3) -

The company has reported strong headline growth in the third quarter, supported by the contribution from NuLac Foods, although that business was below Margans' expectations because of timing and integration factors.

Morgans believes the company is doing a commendable job but requires further organic revenue growth before turning more positive on the stock. Hold rating and $0.75 target maintained.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If BUB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 73.64.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 270.00.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BXB  BRAMBLES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $9.65

Macquarie rates BXB as Neutral (3) -

Brambles has divested its 50% stake in the Hoover Ferguson JV. This business provides logistics to the oil and gas industry. Macquarie lifts forecasts by 1% for FY18 and FY19 with the net interest costs offsetting some of the benefits from the exit.

The broker is attracted to the stock over the longer term but remains cautious about CHEP Americas in the near term. Neutral rating maintained. Target rises to $10.20 from $9.92.

Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $9.65 Difference: $0.55
If BXB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.37, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 29.96 cents and EPS of 53.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 32.68 cents and EPS of 59.41 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.8, implying annual growth of 2.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates BXB as Buy (1) -

The company has sold its 50% interest in the Hoover Ferguson JV and Ord Minnett considers this a small positive for investors.

The removal of forecast equity-accounted losses more than offsets the lost interest on the shareholder loan, the broker estimates, but the impact on earnings and valuation is largely immaterial.

The broker maintains a Buy rating and $12.25 target.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $12.25 Current Price is $9.65 Difference: $2.6
If BXB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.37, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.49 cents and EPS of 62.17 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.12 cents and EPS of 52.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.8, implying annual growth of 2.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates BXB as Buy (1) -

Brambles will divest its 50% stake in the Hoover Ferguson oil & gas business to its JV partner, in so doing disposing of a value-eroding acquisition made in 2014, the broker notes, just before oil prices tanked.

Consideration will only be nominal but ongoing losses will cease, providing a net positive. Buy and $11.40 target retained.

Target price is $11.40 Current Price is $9.65 Difference: $1.75
If BXB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.37, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 37.45 cents and EPS of 65.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 37.45 cents and EPS of 71.03 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.8, implying annual growth of 2.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CLW  CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT

REITs

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Overnight Price: $3.98

UBS rates CLW as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS has upgraded the REIT to Buy from Neutral based on valuation, asset mix and earnings upgrades. CLW trades at a 7% yield with 3% compound growth rate, as well as a -2% discount to net tangible assets and a -6% discount to the broker's valuation.

CLW has no exposure to retail, rather office, industrial, pubs and Bunnings make up the portfolio. Valuation is at risk from rising interest rates, the broker concedes, but for now Buy with an unchanged $4.25 target.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: $0.27
If CLW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.14, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.30 cents and EPS of 26.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.1, implying annual growth of 14.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.60 cents and EPS of 27.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.1, implying annual growth of 3.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FBU  FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $6.13

ADDED

Deutsche Bank rates FBU as Hold (3) -

In the wake of press reports that Wesfarmers ((WES)) has acquired a small stake with the intention of launching a full take over offer to shareholders, Deutsche Bank analysts note the share price is current deeply depressed, probably undeservedly so. Hold. Target NZ$6.61.

Current Price is $6.13. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.56 cents and EPS of minus 11.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 55.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -7.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 35.97 cents and EPS of 52.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GWA  GWA GROUP LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation

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Overnight Price: $3.54

Citi rates GWA as Neutral (3) -

GWA Group delivered an "upbeat message", on Citi's observation, when it released its Q3 trading update. It is the analysts view the in-line with expectations update plus additional cost savings essentially implies margins will not deteriorate.

Neutral rating retained, while the price target improves to $3.24 from $2.93. Renovation & Replacement, in which market the company has a 16% share, has been identified as 90%+ of the $150m in revenues opportunity for FY19-FY21.

Potential upside risk stems from the company possibly increasing market share, cutting costs and divesting Door & Access in the next 3-4 months. The latter has been flagged by management already.

Target price is $3.24 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If GWA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting downside of -9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.50 cents and EPS of 20.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.8, implying annual growth of 2.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.80 cents and EPS of 21.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.9, implying annual growth of 0.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates GWA as Outperform (1) -

The company has identified a $150m market opportunity in the commercial and residential renovation market. This segment is estimated to be twice the size of GWA's other segments but the company only has half the comparable market share.

Credit Suisse values the opportunity at $1.15 per share, if achieved over a decade, and includes $0.27 per share in valuation. The broker believes the company is only at the start of a virtuous cycle of reinvestment in its brands and products. Outperform rating and $3.40 target maintained.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If GWA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting downside of -9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.50 cents and EPS of 21.29 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.8, implying annual growth of 2.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 21.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.9, implying annual growth of 0.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Deutsche Bank rates GWA as Hold (3) -

Deutsche Bank remains concerned about GWA's margin outlook given the market overall is peaking, and weakness is on the horizon. The company is taking market share, but the analysts don't think it can compensate for the weaker top line outlook.

Hold rating retained, alongside a $3.16 price target.

Target price is $3.16 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If GWA meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting downside of -9.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY18:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.8, implying annual growth of 2.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.9, implying annual growth of 0.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates GWA as Hold (3) -

The company has outlined its growth strategy to leverage its core brands in bathrooms & kitchens as well as its market leading position. Areas of growth have been highlighted amid expectations of the potential to increase market share in the renovations & replacements market.

Management believes this market segment provides a growth opportunity and has taken a number of initiatives to tap into the aged care sector as well as increase consumer engagement via concept stores. Morgans maintains a Hold rating and $3.30 target.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If GWA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting downside of -9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.8, implying annual growth of 2.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.9, implying annual growth of 0.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IFN  INFIGEN ENERGY

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Overnight Price: $0.70

UPDATED

Macquarie rates IFN as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

The emergence of Brookfield on the company's register should be viewed positively, Macquarie suggests. Brookfield has filed a substantial holding notice and now has a 9% voting interest. The name is well known among infrastructure investors.

The broker now considers the risks are weighted to the upside, upgrading the stock to Outperform from Neutral. Target is increased to $0.78 from $0.67.

Target price is $0.78 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $0.08
If IFN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.67, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.8, implying annual growth of -55.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 1.80 cents and EPS of 4.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.4, implying annual growth of 144.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGX  MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $0.41

Macquarie rates MGX as Outperform (1) -

Production in the third quarter was broadly in line with Macquarie's estimates, although realised pricing was weaker than expected.

Full year production and cost guidance has been maintained and Koolan Island works are on track for first shipments in the third quarter of FY19.

The broker retains an Outperform rating and $0.55 target.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.14
If MGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.50, suggesting upside of 21.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 2.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.7, implying annual growth of 12.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 410.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.5, implying annual growth of -7.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates MGX as Neutral (3) -

Mount Gibson's March Q update showed production was meeting guidance levels and the Koolan Island restart project remains on track for March Q 2019.

Iron Hill's market outlook is looking more positive this quarter, the broker suggests, improving pricing dynamic for iron ore. Neutral and 44c target retained.

Target price is $0.44 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.03
If MGX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.50, suggesting upside of 21.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.7, implying annual growth of 12.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.5, implying annual growth of -7.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MHJ  MICHAEL HILL INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

Luxury

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Overnight Price: $1.11

Citi rates MHJ as Buy (1) -

The third quarter trading update featured improved sales momentum in Australasia but a slowing in Canada, Citi observes. The broker suspects distractions associated with the shutting down of the US business contributed to the slowdown in Canada.

The broker assesses the stock is trading at an excessive discount to Australian retail peers, given the business is relatively less exposed to a housing slowdown and Amazon. A Buy rating is maintained. Target is reduced to $1.43 from $1.45.

Target price is $1.43 Current Price is $1.11 Difference: $0.32
If MHJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.30, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 6.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.5, implying annual growth of -35.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.80 cents and EPS of 10.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.2, implying annual growth of 49.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates MHJ as Outperform (1) -

The March quarter update confirms the exit from the US amid a continuation of the broader trading trends in the first half, Macquarie observes.

With an enhanced operating platform post the exit from the US and the restructure of Emma & Roe the broker envisages value in the stock.

Outperform maintained. Target is $1.32.

Target price is $1.32 Current Price is $1.11 Difference: $0.21
If MHJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.30, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 7.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.5, implying annual growth of -35.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 10.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.2, implying annual growth of 49.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates MHJ as Hold (3) -

Third quarter total sales growth of 4.5% has been reported along with same store sales growth of 0.4%. Morgans notes all regions experienced improved momentum in same store sales although Australia was somewhat soft.

The company is on track to fully exit the US market by the end of April and close all stores by June 30. Morgans forecasts this should realise $11.6m in EBIT in FY19. Hold rating maintained and the target is lowered to $1.16 from $1.18.

Target price is $1.16 Current Price is $1.11 Difference: $0.05
If MHJ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.30, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.10 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.5, implying annual growth of -35.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.90 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.2, implying annual growth of 49.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NGI  NAVIGATOR GLOBAL INVESTMENTS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $3.84

ADDED

Ord Minnett rates NGI as Buy (1) -

The Lighthouse assets under management grew by 1% in the March quarter, taking 12-month growth to 11%. Ord Minnett considers the next catalyst for the stock is the update in May regarding the acquisition of Mesirow Advanced Strategies.

The broker continues to envisage merit in the investment case, owing to a strong track record of growth in assets under management, good prospects of additional inflows from Asia and Europe, as well as the strong capital position.

Buy retained. Target is raised to $3.90 from $3.70.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.84 Difference: $0.06
If NGI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.66 cents and EPS of 26.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.43.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 23.25 cents and EPS of 29.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.16.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OSH  OIL SEARCH LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $7.65

Citi rates OSH as Sell (5) -

The company has announced an increase in the P'nyang 2C resource, now standing at 4.3tcf gross. The 1C resource has also increased to 3.5tcf gross, which Citi flags important because the operator markets LNG on this basis.

Citi acknowledges potential for further positive news over the coming 6-9 months but suspects the earthquakes will impact production outcomes versus market expectations. Sell rating maintained with a $6.60 target.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $7.65 Difference: minus $1.05 (current price is over target).
If OSH meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.16, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.92 cents and EPS of 26.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.64 cents and EPS of 27.15 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.4, implying annual growth of 3.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates OSH as Outperform (1) -

Re-certification of the P'nyang gas field has resulted in a 211% and 84% increase in 1C and 2C resources. The increase in 1C is a key step in justifying the expansion, Macquarie asserts, as Exxon Mobil only usually sanctions projects based on 1C estimates.

Macquarie believes some of the potential upside is already factored into the share price. The focus now moves to the re-start of PNG LNG, expected in early May.

Outperform and $8.10 target retained.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $7.65 Difference: $0.45
If OSH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.16, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.94 cents and EPS of 20.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.92 cents and EPS of 18.36 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.4, implying annual growth of 3.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PRY  PRIMARY HEALTH CARE LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $3.82

Ord Minnett rates PRY as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett believes the company offers good exposure to domestic diagnostics, an increasingly attractive segment. The medical centre division receives most investor attention but only accounts for 17% of group earnings and its anticipated recovery is considered still a year away.

However, the broker expects double-digit earnings growth in FY19 and FY20, supported mainly by the diagnostics division. Ord Minnett upgrades to Accumulate from Hold and raises the target to $4.30 from $3.50.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.82 Difference: $0.48
If PRY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.68, suggesting downside of -3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.8, implying annual growth of 9.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO  RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $78.28

Morgans rates RIO as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Recent share price weakness, combined with a lift in earnings, has triggered an upgrade to Add from Hold. Morgans, whilst envisaging value on offer at current levels, retains lingering concerns around the future direction of the company after the exit from coal, and amid its interest in entering new markets such as lithium.

The broker also notes that US sanctions banning Americans from dealing with certain Russian entities could result in further tightness in the global aluminium market. Target is raised to $81.51 from $74.75.

Target price is $81.51 Current Price is $78.28 Difference: $3.23
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $84.00, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 388.74 cents and EPS of 776.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 659.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 389.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 380.99 cents and EPS of 760.69 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 608.8, implying annual growth of -7.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 366.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32  SOUTH32 LIMITED

Mining

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Overnight Price: $3.51

Morgans rates S32 as Upgrade to Hold from Reduce (3) -

Morgans upgrades to Hold from Reduce following upgrades to aluminium price forecasts and recent share price weakness.

The broker is pricing in a more structural uplift in aluminium fundamentals as China reforms its industry, which has meant a moderation of strong supply growth.

Moreover, US sanctions levelled at Russian aluminium producer Rusal could result in further supply tightness. Target is raised to $3.72 from $2.97.

Target price is $3.72 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: $0.21
If S32 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.45, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.79 cents and EPS of 24.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.79 cents and EPS of 32.29 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.2, implying annual growth of 3.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGR  THE STAR ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED

Gaming

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Overnight Price: $5.20

ADDED

Deutsche Bank rates SGR as Buy (1) -

Deutsche Bank sticks with its Buy rating and $6.30 price target, noting the $220m Sovereign Resort project at Star Sydney is likely EPS dilutive in both FY19 and FY20, but accretive from the following year onwards.

This is due to an increase in the number of tables and slots, the analyst explains. Upon completion of the project, Deutsche Bank estimates Sovereign Resort revenue will increase by 32% to $462m and EBITDA by 28% to $133m. Completion is expected in March 2020.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.20 Difference: $1.1
If SGR meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.18, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY18:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.9, implying annual growth of -15.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.8, implying annual growth of 14.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TCL  TRANSURBAN GROUP

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $11.21

Macquarie rates TCL as Outperform (1) -

The Commonwealth government has proposed up to $5bn of funding on a 50:50 basis with the Victorian government to develop and build a rail connection to Melbourne airport.

Macquarie observes that, strangely, this announcement may be seen as a potential positive for Transurban. Irrespective of which party forms government, the capital required to pay Transurban out of the Citylink extension and price increase would be better directed towards the rail project, the broker suggests.

Macquarie believes any concerns around the airport rail link are misplaced with lost volume more than offset by the organic growth in population. Outperform rating and $12.44 target maintained.

Target price is $12.44 Current Price is $11.21 Difference: $1.23
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.06, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 53.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.2, implying annual growth of 123.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.8.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 60.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.3, implying annual growth of 23.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VCX  VICINITY CENTRES

REITs

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Overnight Price: $2.41

Citi rates VCX as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes the company could be looking at a range of options to optimise value and analyses the potential spin-off of the lower-quality assets. The broker envisages some scope for upside, although this appears modest relative to the stock's discount to net tangible assets.

Citi points out that re-carving the pie does not increase its size and portfolio quality remains key. The broker maintains a Neutral rating and $2.72 target.

Target price is $2.72 Current Price is $2.41 Difference: $0.31
If VCX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.83, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.30 cents and EPS of 18.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.6, implying annual growth of 4.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.60 cents and EPS of 18.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.7, implying annual growth of -4.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WFD  WESTFIELD CORPORATION

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $8.73

Ord Minnett rates WFD as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett calculates the stock is valued at $9.09 per security after assessing the documentation for Unibail Rodamco's takeover, which concludes that the bid is in the best interests of shareholders.

Hold rating and target reduced to $9.30 from $10.60.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $8.73 Difference: $0.57
If WFD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.58, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 33.67 cents and EPS of 42.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 34.02 cents and EPS of 45.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.8, implying annual growth of 9.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Summaries
AZJ AURIZON HOLDINGS Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $4.43
BLD BORAL Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $7.34
BTT BT INVEST MANAGEMENT Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $9.44
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $9.44
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $9.44
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $9.44
BUB BUBS AUSTRALIA Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $0.81
BXB BRAMBLES Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $9.65
Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $9.65
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $9.65
CLW CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $3.98
FBU FLETCHER BUILDING Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $6.13
GWA GWA GROUP Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $3.54
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.54
Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $3.54
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $3.54
IFN INFIGEN ENERGY Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.70
MGX MOUNT GIBSON IRON Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.41
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $0.41
MHJ MICHAEL HILL Buy - Citi Overnight Price $1.11
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.11
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $1.11
NGI NAVIGATOR GLOBAL INVESTMENTS Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.84
OSH OIL SEARCH Sell - Citi Overnight Price $7.65
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $7.65
PRY PRIMARY HEALTH CARE Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.82
RIO RIO TINTO Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $78.28
S32 SOUTH32 Upgrade to Hold from Reduce - Morgans Overnight Price $3.51
SGR STAR ENTERTAINMENT Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $5.20
TCL TRANSURBAN GROUP Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $11.21
VCX VICINITY CENTRES Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $2.41
WFD WESTFIELD CORP Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $8.73
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

15

2. Accumulate

1

3. Hold

15

5. Sell

1

Friday 13 April 2018

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.