Australian Broker Call

Credit Suisse rates ALD as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse notes Australian fuel retailers stand to benefit from exposure to elevated refinery earnings, anticipating demand from Europe and export restrictions from China will support strong refining margins through 2022.

While Ampol has less exposure to jet fuel and recovery in the aviation market than peers, the broker notes the company will still benefit with aviation volumes in March 57% on the same month in FY19.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $31.48 from $29.90.

Target price is $31.48 Current Price is $33.99 Difference: minus $2.51 (current price is over target).
If ALD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.01, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates APE as Buy (1) -

Earlier today, Eagers Automotive released a trading update and UBS, upon initial glance, observes demand for new vehicles remains strong in Australia, plus demand continues to outstrip supply.

But chip shortages are continuing as well, leading to H1 guidance missing the broker's estimate by between -12%-15% with management at the firm providing a new range of $183-189m.

UBS is holding on to the positives, but the broker equally sympathises with those investors who are worried about the impact on consumer spending once the local housing market comes off the boil on the back of rising interest rates.

Buy rating and $18.35 target price.

Target price is $18.35 Current Price is $11.89 Difference: $6.46
If APE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.32, suggesting upside of 50.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BPT as Underperform (5) -

While leaving the long term Brent crude oil forecast at US$65/bbl the Macquarie commodities team marks-to-market its Energy sector coverage for 2Q oil/spot LNG prices and adjusts for higher 10-year bond yields.

The broker still expects oil prices to fade through the 2H of 2022 as oil supply increases. Nonetheless, due to consistently strong recent pricing, companies have been able to deleverage faster than expected and there's considered to be potential for buybacks or M&A.

Macquarie retains its Underperform rating for Beach Energy and reduces its target price to $1.51 from $1.58.

Target price is $1.51 Current Price is $1.74 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BSL as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has applied the latest steel forward price curves to its valuation models for BlueScope Steel and Sims. The broker's forecast earnings for BlueScope fall -2% in FY22 and -36% in FY23. Sims' FY22 forecast has fallen -7% to be in line with consensus.

The broker retains Buy for both stocks, but prefers BlueScope based on its near term growth, balance sheet strength, and strong FY23
spot free cash flow yield forecast of 28%.

Steel prices will remain volatile given cost pressures, but steel market conditions remain strong, particularly in the US, the broker notes.

BlueScope target falls to $26 from $28.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $17.93 Difference: $8.07
If BSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.30, suggesting upside of 38.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CBA as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie retains its Underperform rating for CommBank due to an elevated valuation though acknowledges good progress for the bank's (just showcased) digital front-end strategy.

While digital mortgages provide longer-term expense benefits, the analyst notes reduced profitability and the potential cannibalisation of the bank's highly profitable existing business.

The Underperform rating and $90 target price are retained.

Target price is $90.00 Current Price is $105.12 Difference: minus $15.12 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $92.08, suggesting downside of -12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CBA as Hold (3) -

Commonwealth Bank yesterday launched three new banking products: Unloan, which is a digital mortgage product similar in pricing, Ord Minnett notes, to other products on the market; Kit, a youth banking app/card; and Yello, a "modest" attempt at customer loyalty rewards.

CBA continues to lead peers in most areas of the digital banking landscape, and the broker regards the bank as ahead of the other majors in finding ways to avoid commoditisation of its products through differentiation in both retail and business banking.

That technology advantage is nevertheless captured in current valuation. Hold and $93 target retained.

Target price is $93.00 Current Price is $105.12 Difference: minus $12.12 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $92.08, suggesting downside of -12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COE as Underperform (5) -

While leaving the long term Brent crude oil forecast at US$65/bbl the Macquarie commodities team marks-to-market its Energy sector coverage for 2Q oil/spot LNG prices and adjusts for higher 10-year bond yields.

The broker still expects oil prices to fade through the 2H of 2022 as oil supply increases. Nonetheless, due to consistently strong recent pricing, companies have been able to deleverage faster than expected and there's considered to be potential for buybacks or M&A.

Macquarie retains its Underperform rating for Cooper Energy and raises its target price to $0.26 from $0.25.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If COE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.29, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CVN as Neutral (3) -

While leaving the long term Brent crude oil forecast at US$65/bbl the Macquarie commodities team marks-to-market its Energy sector coverage for 2Q oil/spot LNG prices and adjusts for higher 10-year bond yields.

The broker still expects oil prices to fade through the 2H of 2022 as oil supply increases. Nonetheless, due to consistently strong recent pricing, companies have been able to deleverage faster than expected and there's considered to be potential for buybacks or M&A.

Macquarie retains its Neutral rating for Carnarvon Energy and reduces its target price to $0.25 from $0.26.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.02
If CVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HLS as Outperform (1) -

Ahead of the strategy day for Healius on May 20, Macquarie refreshes its forecasts.

While near-term base pathology volumes/benefits have been impacted by covid, the broker forecasts a growth recovery in FY23, with margins aided by the sustainable improvement program.

After allowing for earnings revisions and an updated Macquarie risk-free rate, the target falls to $5.20 from $5.40, while valuation appeal sees the Outperform rating kept.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.15 Difference: $1.05
If HLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.96, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHX as Buy (1) -

James Hardie Industries' FY22 full-year result broadly met consensus, the company posting a slight beat on profits after logging a lower tax rate, and guidance was retained after including an out-of-cycle price rise to account for cost inflation.

Citi considers the beat to be weak and says it lacks management's confidence that rising interest rates won't impact housing. But overall, the broker believes cost-cutting and other initiatives should reduce the risk.

FY23 earnings (EBIT) forecasts are downgraded -5% to account for rate rises.

Buy rating retained given growth remains strong, the company posting a good start to FY23. Target price falls to $44.30 from $59.30.

Target price is $44.30 Current Price is $37.50 Difference: $6.8
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $50.72, suggesting upside of 31.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates JHX as Neutral (3) -

James Hardie Industries closed out the year with net profit of US$621m, the bottom end of its guidance range, having reported fourth quarter earnings of US$225m, a sizeable miss on Credit Suisse's forecast US$242m with earnings margins in both the US and Australia Pacific lower than anticipated. 

Looking ahead, the company reiterated net profit guidance for FY23 of US$740-820m, despite estimating cost of goods inflation has increased US$40-60m since initial guidance. Credit Suisse also notes the first quarter is expected to show the lowest margins of the year.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $41.60 from $42.40.

Target price is $41.60 Current Price is $37.50 Difference: $4.1
If JHX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $50.72, suggesting upside of 31.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JHX as Outperform (1) -

FY22 results for James Hardie Industries were in-line with Macquarie's expectations. The broker highlights that management was "remarkably" optimistic about conditions in the repair and remodel (R&R) market.

The analyst retains an Outperform rating on a historically low valuation multiple, and lowers the target to $56.60 from $57.25. There's thought to be added resilience from moving up the value and margin curve and into new addressable markets.

Target price is $56.60 Current Price is $37.50 Difference: $19.1
If JHX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $50.72, suggesting upside of 31.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

James Hardie Industries' FY22 adjusted profit was broadly in-line with Morgan Stanley's estimate and the consensus forecast. While margins were a beat for the North America Fibre Cement division, they were softer than anticipated for the APAC region.

Management reiterated FY23 profit guidance. The broker feels housing market weakness has been priced-in after a recent share price de-rating, especially given the company's skew towards the repair and remodel (R&R) markets.

While the target price slips to $51 from from $57, Morgan Stanley upgrades its rating to Overweight from Equal-weight. Industry view is In-Line. 

Target price is $51.00 Current Price is $37.50 Difference: $13.5
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $50.72, suggesting upside of 31.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JHX as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

James Hardie's 42% year on year underlying profit growth in its fourth quarter came in ahead of Ord Minnett's forecast. Full-year profit of US$621m is at the low end of the US$620-630m guidance range.

The 30c final dividend declared meant 70c for the full year, which is in line with FY21 but well below market assumptions.

FY23 will see a volatile path for margins, the broker warns, with costs the main headwind, although the company has shown its willingness to push through price rises. Rising rates will drag on James Hardie's PE multiple, although low expectations are already factored in.

The broker nevertheless sees longer term value, and double-digit earnings growth over the next two years. Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate on share price weakness. Target rises to $53.10 from $52.70.

Target price is $53.10 Current Price is $37.50 Difference: $15.6
If JHX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $50.72, suggesting upside of 31.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JHX as Buy (1) -

James Hardie Industries' March final quarter broadly met UBS forecasts and management retained guidance.

Volumes were strong outside Europe and the Middle East but input inflation and rising corporate costs led to slight margin miss, says the broker.

UBS notes US demand for building products shows no sign of waning and says the company's new R&R focus should offer more stability than new construction. Demand in Europe is expected to continue to struggle but the opportunity to grow market share is strong.

While, the broker conservatively assumes growing macro risks, it still spies respectable growth in FY23/24, noting strong pricing, the cost cutting program, and the likely growth from the company's fledgling direct-to-consumer market push.

Buy rating retained. Target price eases to $57.70 from $58.

Target price is $57.70 Current Price is $37.50 Difference: $20.2
If JHX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $50.72, suggesting upside of 31.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KAR as Outperform (1) -

While leaving the long term Brent crude oil forecast at US$65/bbl the Macquarie commodities team marks-to-market its Energy sector coverage for 2Q oil/spot LNG prices and adjusts for higher 10-year bond yields.

The broker still expects oil prices to fade through the 2H of 2022 as oil supply increases. Nonetheless, due to consistently strong recent pricing, companies have been able to deleverage faster than expected and there's considered to be potential for buybacks or M&A.

Macquarie retains its Outperform rating for Karoon Energy and likes its oil leverage. The target price is reduced to $2.60 from $2.70.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $1.95 Difference: $0.65
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 31.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MIN as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse initiates coverage on Mineral Resources, a WA mining services company with exposure to iron ore and lithium, with the broker noting the lithium segment alone largely justifies the company's current share price.

The broker highlights while mining services are at its core, Mineral Resources commodities exposure further enhances profitability, and Credit Suisse expects pipeline projects in all segments to accommodate pivotal growth in the next few years. 

The broker initiates with an Outperform rating and a target price of $73.00.

Target price is $73.00 Current Price is $58.16 Difference: $14.84
If MIN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $69.75, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates OZL as Buy (1) -

OZ Minerals has announced it has purchased an exclusive 18-month option to buy Havilah Resources' ((HAV)) Kalkaroo copper project for $205m - which Citi estimates is 4x Havilah's market capitalisation - allowing it to develop the junior's prospective tenements in Australia.

Citi says OZ Minerals plans to spend $76m during the option period and that, depending on milestones, Havilah could reap a total of $405m. Excluding Musgrave (which Citi expects will now be postponed) the broker expects OZ Minerals will have to borrow $350m.

Citi considers the risk-reward skew favours OZ Minerals' shareholders.

Buy rating and $30.50 target price retained.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $22.03 Difference: $8.47
If OZL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.46, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates OZL as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

OZ Minerals continues to pursue growth, looking to enter into a definitive option agreement with Havilah Resources ((HAV)) on its Kalkaroo copper-gold project.

Credit Suisse expects OZ Minerals will spend up to $76m on the project during the 18-month option, but as much as $346m if the project is pursued. 

The broker highlights Kalkaroo presents a material increase to the already significant growth capital spend OZ Minerals is committed to over the next three years.

Pre-feasibility studies suggest the project offers 30,000 tonnes of copper and 72,000 ounces of gold annually over 13 years. 

Given recent share price performance, the rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform and the target price of $21.00 is retained.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $22.03 Difference: minus $1.03 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.46, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

Following a strategy and business update by South32, Macquarie estimates earnings upgrade momentum remains strong and believes buyback extensions will assist shareholder returns.

Management estimates production will increase by more than 20% over the next two years. The broker maintains its Outperform rating and $6.90 target price.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $4.47 Difference: $2.43
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.05, suggesting upside of 28.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGM as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has applied the latest steel forward price curves to its valuation models for BlueScope Steel and Sims. The broker's forecast earnings for BlueScope fall -2% in FY22 and -36% in FY23. Sims' FY22 forecast has fallen -7% to be in line with consensus.

The broker retains Buy for both stocks, but prefers BlueScope based on its near term growth, balance sheet strength, and strong FY23
spot free cash flow yield forecast of 28%.

Steel prices will remain volatile given cost pressures, but steel market conditions remain strong, particularly in the US, the broker notes.

Sims' target falls to $26 from $27.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $18.48 Difference: $7.52
If SGM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.03, suggesting upside of 23.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

While leaving the long term Brent crude oil forecast at US$65/bbl the Macquarie commodities team marks-to-market its Energy sector coverage for 2Q oil/spot LNG prices and adjusts for higher 10-year bond yields.

The broker still expects oil prices to fade through the 2H of 2022 as oil supply increases. Nonetheless, due to consistently strong recent pricing, companies have been able to deleverage faster than expected and there's considered to be potential for buybacks or M&A.

The broker prefers Santos over Woodside Petroleum ((WPL)) among the large caps. The Outperform rating is retained while the target slips to $10.00 from $10.50.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.25 Difference: $1.75
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.70, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STX as Outperform (1) -

While leaving the long term Brent crude oil forecast at US$65/bbl the Macquarie commodities team marks-to-market its Energy sector coverage for 2Q oil/spot LNG prices and adjusts for higher 10-year bond yields.

The broker still expects oil prices to fade through the 2H of 2022 as oil supply increases. Nonetheless, due to consistently strong recent pricing, companies have been able to deleverage faster than expected and there's considered to be potential for buybacks or M&A.

Macquarie retains its Outperform rating for Strike Energy and likes the potential exploration upside. The target price is reduced to $0.51 from $0.52.

Target price is $0.51 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: $0.2
If STX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates UMG as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse expects tight malt supply to benefit United Malt, likely to allow cost pass through and margin expansion in the coming financial year and setting the company up for contract renewal, but notes inflation presents a headwind for on-premise recovery and previous demand expectations. 

With operating cash flow of -$54m in the first half, the broker expects investors would like to see materially better cash generation and capital expenditure moderation from the company.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $4.75 from $4.62.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.79
If UMG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.61, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates UMG as Outperform (1) -

United Malt's 1H profit of $10m was bang on Macquarie's estimate though a miss versus the consensus forecast of $13m. Management reiterated FY22 earnings guidance and remains confident in the outlook after FY22.

The broker reduces its FY22 EPS forecast by -6.8% to incorporate a higher than expected tax rate, and the target price falls to $4.45 from $4.49. Outperform.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.49
If UMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.61, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates UMG as Hold (3) -

First half results for United Malt were in-line with recently downgraded guidance. While FY22 earnings (EBITDA) guidance was unchanged, Morgans downgrades profit estimates due to a higher rate of taxation than expected.

Nonetheless, the broker keeps its earnings forecast unchanged, having already made adjustements when the company downgraded guidance.

The analyst doesn't see any catalysts on the horizon, and is also wary of above-target gearing and near-term earnings risk. As a result, the Hold rating is retained. The target falls to $4.20 from $4.27.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.24
If UMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.61, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates UMG as Buy (1) -

United Malt's pre-released March-quarter earnings (EBITDA) broadly met the broker and guidance was reiterated.

A lower depreciation and amortisation bill, which resulted in a 13% beat on profit before tax, was offset by a higher tax rate due to a one-off Australian tax loss that could not be capitalised (the broker expects the tax position to normalise in FY23).

FY22 EPS forecasts fall -10% accordingly.

UBS considers the company's medium-term margin recovery post transformation to be achievable, especially given the easing of FY22 trading conditions and the mooted Scottish expansion in FY23.

Buy rating and $4.65 target price retained.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.69
If UMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.61, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates VEA as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse notes Australian fuel retailers stand to benefit from exposure to elevated refinery earnings, anticipating demand from Europe and export restrictions from China will support strong refining margins through 2022.

Viva Energy's greater exposure to jet fuel and recovery in the aviation market is a key differentiator for the company and the reason Viva Energy is the preferred sector pick, with the broker noting aviation volumes in March were 57% on the same month in FY19.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.17 from $2.57.

Target price is $3.17 Current Price is $2.84 Difference: $0.33
If VEA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WPL as Neutral (3) -

While leaving the long term Brent crude oil forecast at US$65/bbl the Macquarie commodities team marks-to-market its Energy sector coverage for 2Q oil/spot LNG prices and adjusts for higher 10-year bond yields.

The broker still expects oil prices to fade through the 2H of 2022 as oil supply increases. Nonetheless, due to consistently strong recent pricing, companies have been able to deleverage faster than expected and there's considered to be potential for buybacks or M&A.

The broker prefers Santos ((STO)) over Woodside Petroleum among the large caps and retains its Neutral rating and $30 target for the latter.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $31.11 Difference: minus $1.11 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.90, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources