Australian Broker Call

Morgans rates ALL as Add (1) -

The FY20 result for Aristocrat Leisure will be reported on November 18. Morgans expects no final dividend and an adjusted profit (NPAT) of $481.3m.

The broker expects the company to exit the current environment in a stronger position than competitors and sees scope for further debt funded acquisitions. This is provided an expected sharp deleveraging over the next few years occurs.

The company has experienced a significant lift in demand for digital games during covid-19. Thus, the analyst expects the digital division to report around 24% US dollar revenue growth in FY20.

The Add rating is unchanged and the target price is increased to $36.78 from $31.31.

Target price is $36.78 Current Price is $33.14 Difference: $3.64
If ALL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.68, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALL as Buy (1) -

Aristocrat Leisure holds 3 of the top 5 performing cabinets in both core games and premium leased segments, according to the EILERS FANTINI game performance data.

UBS views Aristocrat's high revenue contribution on premium boxes as an indication of strength in the segment. UBS suggests the land-based market seems to be recovering slightly better than expectations. Also, digital engagement remains high heading into FY21. 

UBS retains its Buy rating with a target of $34.25.

Target price is $34.25 Current Price is $33.14 Difference: $1.11
If ALL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.68, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AST as Neutral (3) -

First half net profit was ahead of Credit Suisse estimates. The broker increases FY21 net profit forecasts by 28.7% and FY22 by 10.8%.

The integration of renewables continues to present opportunities for the transmission business, the broker observes.

AusNet Services continues to target regulated asset base growth of 2-2.5% per annum to FY24 along with $1.5bn of unregulated assets.

Neutral rating retained. Target rises to $1.95 from $1.90.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If AST meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting downside of -6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AST as Neutral (3) -

One-offs boosted the profit result but AusNet Services' underlying first half earnings beat the broker by 6%, thanks to a strong performance from electricity distribution mitigating lower transmission. The company had been a virus/work-form-home beneficiary in the period.

Regulatory resets will create a headwind from the second half through to FY23, the broker notes, with electricity distribution and transmission resetting to lower weighted average costs of capital, leaving earnings flat over three years.

The broker retains Neutral and a $2.00 target, suggesting the stock is slightly ahead of fair value but still offering a decent return.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If AST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting downside of -6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AST as Equal-weight (3) -

First half operating earnings were ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimates. The broker notes a temporary working from home boost and slightly lower regulated asset base growth.

Distribution guidance is unchanged and the first half distribution of 4.75c was at the top end of guidance.

The broker retains an Equal-weight rating and a $1.88 target. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $1.88 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If AST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting downside of -6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AST as Reduce (5) -

Morgans describes the first half result for AusNet Services as "solid" with outperformance on revenue over-collection and cost-out.

Earnings (EBITDA), ex customer contributions and including lease-accounted Mondo revenues, increased 8% on the previous corresponding period and beat Morgans' forecast by 5%.  

These earnings were supported by regulated revenue over-collection ($21m will be returned mainly in FY22) and strong cost performance, notes the broker.

The analyst highlights the business continues to be reshaped, being four months into a transformation program. This includes redirecting capex to put downward pressure on costs, and reinvesting some cost savings into customer-focused initiatives.

The Reduce rating and target of $1.80 are unchanged.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If AST meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting downside of -6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AST as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

The first half underlying net profit for AusNet Services came in significantly ahead of Ord Minnett's forecast due mainly to a better-than-
expected contribution from the electricity distribution business. This was driven by increased residential consumption.

With revenue from the asset above the cap, this is expected by the broker to unwind in future periods. Aside from that, the result was in line with estimates.

Management continues to highlight growth, although the increase in the regulatory contracted asset base (RCAB) has been tempered slightly with a more conservative outlook, notes the analyst.

The rating is downgraded to Lighten from Hold and the target price of $1.75 is unchanged.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If AST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting downside of -6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AST as Neutral (3) -

AusNet Services' first-half net profit was 30% ahead of UBS's forecast largely led by a short-term over-recovery of revenue from higher residential volumes (Victorians were restricted to their homes for most of the half).

With funds from operations/net debt at 11.4%, UBS believes AusNet Services is well-positioned to fund its growth ambitions, maintain its credit rating and lift dividends from FY21.

The broker expects the dividend to be at the top end of FY21 guidance and to grow at 2.5% per annum thereafter to FY23. 

UBS maintains its Neutral rating with the target price rising to $2 from $1.90.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If AST meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting downside of -6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BGL as Outperform (1) -

An updated resource estimate has lifted the indicated resource for Bellevue Gold by 20% and the overall resource by 7%. The company has identified a high-grade core that the broker suggests will form the majority of the early mining inventory for the project.

Drilling is now expected to accelerate from underground positions with an economic study due for completion in the March quarter next year. The broker lifts its target to $1.55 from $1.50 and retains Outperform.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.40 Difference: $0.15
If BGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

BHP Group has set a target of net zero emissions by 2050 and a -30% emission reduction by 2030, echoing a common government theme across the world bar Australia.

The company now intends to divest of its thermal coal assets, Mitsui coal JV and Bass Strait gas. Meanwhile, solid iron ore prices continue to underpin earnings. The broker has made no changes, Outperform and $44 target retained.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $36.85 Difference: $7.15
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.81, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Buy (1) -

BHP Group provided a briefing on steel making decarbonisation initiatives.

Ord Minnett notes the group believes carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS) will play a crucial role in keeping industry-wide greenhouse gas emissions flat to 2050.

The group also believes CCUS will play a critical role until green hydrogen becomes affordable enough to deploy at scale.

Additionally, steel customers are not looking to move away from blast furnaces, and so recognise the need to investigate CCUS technologies, where there is growing interest.

There is currently only one CCUS facility to abate steel emissions globally, notes the broker.

The Buy rating and target of $43 are unchanged.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $36.85 Difference: $6.15
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.81, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CBA as Neutral (3) -

Commonwealth Bank reported first quarter cash earnings of around $1.8bn, down -16%.

Credit Suisse expects the sector to benefit from a recovery, albeit the bank's defensive status is likely to mean it lags the recovery in peer share prices.

Earnings estimates are upgraded by 3-6% on the back of lower bad debts amid a large decline in the balance of deferrals.

Credit Suisse maintains its Neutral rating with a target price of $74.80.

Target price is $74.80 Current Price is $74.40 Difference: $0.4
If CBA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $68.09, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CBA as Underperform (5) -

The trends seen in Commonwealth Bank's September quarter were consistent with those of peers, the broker notes. Balance sheet growth was strong but margin pressures and higher expenses weighed on pre-provision earnings.

While acknowledging the bank's superior franchise and sector-high bad debt provisions, the broker warns the impact of ultra-low interest rates and competitive pressures going forward will weigh more on CBA than on peers.

The impact of lower risk-weighted asset inflation prompts a target increase to $65.00 from $58.50 but Underperform retained.

Target price is $65.00 Current Price is $74.40 Difference: minus $9.4 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $68.09, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

First quarter cash profit was below estimates yet Morgan Stanley notes credit quality remains sound and provisions have been increased.

Operating trends appear less resilient than the broker forecast. Excluding customer remediation revenue was flat.

Underweight rating. Target is $62.00. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $62.00 Current Price is $74.40 Difference: minus $12.4 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $68.09, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CBA as Hold (3) -

Commonwealth Bank of Australia reported September quarter cash earnings of $1.8bn, well below the run-rate required to reach Ord Minnett’s previous (above-consensus) forecast for first-half FY21.

The broker highlights net interest income (NII) and revenue were flat on the second-half FY20 quarterly average, despite very strong home loan growth running at more than twice system credit growth.

Underlying expense growth of 2% on the quarterly average of second-half FY20 was higher than the analyst's flat assumption for first-half FY21, while asset quality trends were benign.

Ord Minnett explains the bank is trading on a stretched valuation that fails to reflect the challenging top-line environment driven by  heavy exposure to retail banking. The performance on costs is not considered sufficient to compensate for this.

Ord Minnett maintains its Hold recommendation with the target price falling to $65.80 from $66.30.

Target price is $65.80 Current Price is $74.40 Difference: minus $8.6 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $68.09, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CBA as Neutral (3) -

CommBank's first-quarter trading update shows a net profit of circa $1.8bn. Revenue was slightly below UBS's forecasts while costs were higher. While the bank saw strong volumes in mortgages and deposits, pressure on the net interest margin (NIM) continued.

UBS notes CommBank's drivers, consistent with the other banks, included a lower cash rate, competition in the mortgage book and lower consumer finance.

The broker has lowered its revenue forecasts by -1% in FY21 given the ongoing NIM pressure.

Buy rating is retained with a target of $72.

Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $74.40 Difference: minus $2.4 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $68.09, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CPU as Sell (5) -

Management updated the market with a slightly better-than-expected first four months of the year, according to Citi.

The broker feels second half stretch targets may be harder to achieve, given the extension of US foreclosure restrictions. Additionally, it's considered the boost from delinquent mortgage servicing in FY22 may not be as strong as previously expected.

Due to those mortgage servicing concerns, Citi cuts FY22 and FY23 EPS estimates by -3%.

The Sell rating and $12 target are unchanged.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $14.00 Difference: minus $2 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.43, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

Computershare's AGM trading update for the first four months of FY21 was slightly ahead of the broker's expectation but full-year guidance was reaffirmed. Corporate actions activity saw improvement and employee share plan volumes recovered.

The extension of the US government’s restriction on mortgage foreclosures to end-December postpones some mortgage servicing ancillary revenue into the second half, the broker notes, leaving management cautious. Neutral retained, target rises to $14.35 from $13.40.

Target price is $14.35 Current Price is $14.00 Difference: $0.35
If CPU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.43, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CPU as Overweight (1) -

On balance, Morgan Stanley found the trading update positive, supporting a view that management earnings can beat guidance in FY21.

Computershare has maintained guidance for management earnings per share to be down -11%.

Margin income is on track for US$100m in FY21. Overweight rating. Target is $15.75. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $15.75 Current Price is $14.00 Difference: $1.75
If CPU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.43, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CPU as Add (1) -

The first four months of the year are tracking slightly ahead of Computershare's expectations. Management has also re-affirmed FY21 guidance.

The analyst states that while a lack of an upgrade may be construed negatively, it's more likely management is adopting a conservative view.

The broker makes only nominal changes to FY21 EPS and lifts FY22 EPS on an improved outlook for cyclical drivers linked to the announcement of a potential covid-19 vaccine.

The Add rating is unchanged and the target is increased to $14.98 from $14.22.

Target price is $14.98 Current Price is $14.00 Difference: $0.98
If CPU meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.43, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CPU as Lighten (4) -

Computershare reaffirmed guidance at its AGM and reduced its seasonal skew for a sharp bounce back in second-half FY21 earnings.

The company initially expected 40%/60% seasonality in management EPS over FY21, but now expects 42%/58% seasonality. This is as a result of some risks in the second half from the refinancing moratorium and further lockdowns.

In Ord Minnett’s view, this remains a stretch and is well out of the range suggested by history.

While management may believe there will be respite come the arrival of a vaccine, the broker is concerned much of past negative effects came from interest rates and problems in mortgage servicing.

Ord Minnett maintains its Lighten recommendation with a target price of $10.75.

Target price is $10.75 Current Price is $14.00 Difference: minus $3.25 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.43, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CQE as Accumulate (2) -

The Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT has acquired the SA Emergency Services Command Centre in Adelaide for $80m.

Ord Minnett notes the acquisition aligns closely with the trust's broader social infrastructure mandate given the asset’s specialised nature and government tenant.

The REIT is trading on a 5.6% FY22 dividend yield, calculates the broker. The Accumulate rating is unchanged and the target price is $3.30.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.06 Difference: $0.24
If CQE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ECX as Outperform (1) -

Strong earnings growth in the core business was delivered in the second half, with Credit Suisse noting a combination of a lower interest burden through debt reduction and increased end-of-lease income.

Going forward, the broker expects it will take time for new business to fully reach pre-pandemic levels but the combination of improved momentum as well as the annualised run rate of efficiency benefits should drive earnings growth in FY21.

The broker continues to envisage the valuation as supportive and maintains an Outperform rating. Target is raised to $1.90 from $1.25.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.79 Difference: $0.11
If ECX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.95, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ECX as Outperform (1) -

EclipX Group's FY20 result exceeded the broker's expectation in the current challenging environment, supported by end-of-lease income and cost-outs. The company has repaired its balance sheet through non-core divestments and gross debt is below target.

Opportunities are being pursued in the SME part of the market that should support growth and margins, the broker notes. EclipX could also benefit from sustained higher used car prices and continued recovery in New Business.

Outperform retained, target rises to $2.01 from $1.70.

Target price is $2.01 Current Price is $1.79 Difference: $0.22
If ECX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.95, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ECX as Overweight (1) -

FY20 results beat estimates. End-of-lease income of $33.3m was better than Morgan Stanley expected, supported by elevated used vehicle prices.

The broker notes the balance sheet has been repaired and, importantly, net debt of $99m implies less than 1.2x net debt/EBITDA.

No FY21 guidance was provided. Overweight rating and $1.70 target retained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.79 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If ECX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.95, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ECX as Buy (1) -

UBS observes with net profit 5% ahead of the broker's forecast, EclipX Group delivered a strong FY20 result. 

Going into FY21, EclipX's strategy is to focus on corporate fleet and novated leasing along with reducing debt.

While used car pricing remains favourable, UBS expects conditions to moderate into FY21. The broker thinks EclipX is well-positioned to deliver growth across novated leasing and corporate fleet via its digital platform.

The broker retains its Buy rating with the target rising to $2.20 from $2.05.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.79 Difference: $0.41
If ECX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.95, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FAR as Equal-weight (3) -

The company has announced the sale of the Senegal assets and will receive US$45m on completion. FAR was a forced seller, being unable to raise debt for the project.

Upon completion the company will have around US$130m in cash and some exploration assets but no likely production in the short term.

Morgan Stanley suspects, given the low sale price, JV partner Woodside Petroleum ((WPL)) may decide to pre-empt and build a further stake in the project before a subsequent farming down.

Equal-weight rating maintained. Target is 2c. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $0.02 Current Price is $0.01 Difference: $0.01
If FAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FBU as Neutral (3) -

Post the release of a trading update, Citi has kept its Neutral rating with a NZ$5.90 target price. The broker acknowledges the company has experienced a strong start to FY21, but remains of the view the outlook remains highly dependent on the macro context.

Citi believes the shares are trading at a -20% discount to the ASX200 ex-Resources and this is considered "fairly valued". The long-term relative discount is -18%.

The broker sees the next catalyst at the AGM on 25 November, where the company is expected to provide 1H21 earnings guidance.

Current Price is $5.00. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $5.91, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

Fortescue Metals' AGM dripped with ESG goals, highlighting a focus on employee diversity, indigenous heritage and climate change. Meanwhile, development of the Eliwana and Iron Bridge projects remain on track, the broker notes.

Eliwana is expected to achieve first ore on train by the end of the year. In the meantime, strong iron ore prices are providing for free cash flow yields of 17-18%. Outperform and $20.00 target retained.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $17.29 Difference: $2.71
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.76, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GPT as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

GPT has surged 13% in two days as part of the vaccine-inspired value switch and outperformed the ASX REIT index by 4.6%, Macquarie notes. The broker had previously identified GPT as a value pick.

Not anymore. On the strength of the rally, and ongoing risk of lower office/retail asset valuations, the broker downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Macquarie has nonetheless backed off its valuation risk assumptions slightly, so target rises to $4.79 from $4.48.

Target price is $4.79 Current Price is $4.86 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If GPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.45, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IEL as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Morgans reiterates the upside from a vaccine for IDP Education is the potential for international borders to reopen quicker than expected. This would bolster student placement and IELTS testing volumes and earnings. 

The broker believes the company will be materially better placed when normalised conditions prevail.

The analyst increases FY22 and FY23 EPS forecasts by around 3% and 12%, respectively. This is primarily driven by increased IELTS/Student Placement volume assumptions and slightly lower opex assumptions.

The rating is increased to Add from Hold and the target price is increased to $25.09 from $23.23.

Target price is $25.09 Current Price is $22.57 Difference: $2.52
If IEL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.66, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IFM as Buy (1) -

Infomedia's AGM update was positive and sets the tone for a stronger second half, observes UBS, led by new revenue streams and long-term performance. The company's commentary reinforces the broker's view on improving business activity.

This, notes UBS, is further corroborated by feedback from dealerships, suggesting better profitability post-covid-19.

Maintain Buy with a target price of $2.20.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.80 Difference: $0.4
If IFM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IPL as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse believes cycling the heavy plant turnaround in FY21 and a further reversal of pandemic-related market impacts will support earnings expansion in FY21.

While fertiliser prices are strengthening and this will help, this is not central to earnings growth, the broker adds. Credit Suisse considers technology should both support market share and improve the profit mix in contract renewals.

The broker makes further adjustments to forecasts post the results, incorporating lower plant production assumptions for FY21 and this results in a reduction to estimates. Outperform retained. Target is reduced to $2.70 from $2.79.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.04 Difference: $0.66
If IPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.49, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IRE as Accumulate (2) -

Highlights for Ord Minnett from a third quarter update include positive year-to-date results in APAC and UK/Europe, driven by QuantHouse. This is the international market data provider acquired in May 2019.

South Africa and North America are considered by the broker to be tracking in-line with the previous corresponding period (excluding acquisition impact).

The analyst notes the mortgages division was impacted by covid-19, with timing on several client projects delayed. The company sees a pickup in growth for this division.

The company's reinstated guidance of $152m segment profit was largely captured in Ord Minnett's existing estimates.

The broker's prior forecasts largely captured the updated guidance and the target price is decreased slightly to $11.20 from $11.25. 

The Accumulate rating is unchanged.

Target price is $11.20 Current Price is $9.90 Difference: $1.3
If IRE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.30, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IVC as Equal-weight (3) -

InvoCare has acquired two pet crematoria with a combined presence across five states. The upfront consideration is -$38.3m with a further -$11.5m in earn-outs over two years.

While the acquisition is accretive the deal lacks strategic appeal, Morgan Stanley asserts, as it is unlikely to move the dial on earnings in the foreseeable future.

Equal-weight rating. Target is $10.30. In-Line industry view.

Target price is $10.30 Current Price is $11.50 Difference: minus $1.2 (current price is over target).
If IVC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.51, suggesting downside of -9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGM as Buy (1) -

Sims' September quarter update disclosed all assets delivered a strong operating income and the company was cash flow positive. UBS believes the end markets are improving for Sims with both ferrous and nonferrous scrap prices rising.

The first quarter volumes were on average down -15% versus last year. The broker expects the first half volumes to be down -3% year-on-year, which is the equivalent of -12% versus FY19.

News that China may restart ferrous scrap imports sooner than expected bodes well for the company, suggests the broker. Buy with the target rising to $12 from $10.20.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $10.77 Difference: $1.23
If SGM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.29, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SYD as Lighten (4) -

In Ord Minnett’s view,  the current share price implies domestic passenger numbers (PAX) will recover to pre-covid (2019) levels by the end of 2021 and international by late 2022.

This is effectively one year ahead of the broker's current domestic forecast and two years ahead of the international forecast.

Given the high degree of uncertainty surrounding cross-border travel, the Lighten rating is unchanged and the target is increased to $6 from $5.40.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $6.78 Difference: minus $0.78 (current price is over target).
If SYD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.01, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TCL as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Transurban has been out-bid on the Elizabeth River Crossing project in Virginia. Perhaps disappointing but it does shrink a required capital raising for the buy out of the rest of WestConnex in Sydney, Macquarie notes. There are still opportunities pending in the US.

The implied PE multiple paid for the ERC materially exceeded the broker's valuation, and the broker assumes such a premium can also be captured through the partial sale of Transurban's other US assets. To that end, target rises to $15.93 from $14.33. 

Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral.

Target price is $15.93 Current Price is $15.57 Difference: $0.36
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.55, suggesting downside of -5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WPL as Outperform (1) -

Woodside has decided Scarborough to North West Shelf infrastructure is too expensive hence the focus is now on directing the gas to Pluto train 2. NWS offshore gas reserves will begin declining in 2021, hence the broker assumes 1-2 original trains will be closed over 5 years.

The company does not intend to raise equity for Scarborough in the near term given intended divestments. There's little point in Woodside picking up additional stakes in NWS without Scarborough gas but it is a buyer's market, the broker notes.

A slightly lower production forecast takes the target down to $23.25 from $23.50, Outperform retained.

Target price is $23.25 Current Price is $20.90 Difference: $2.35
If WPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.07, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WPL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley considers the risk/reward for Woodside Petroleum is improving, noting the company has presented a more confident view on Scarborough at its investor briefing.

Costs breakeven is near US$6.8/mmbtu and this could be lowered as the company is working on increasing upstream capacity.

One of the advantages of Scarborough, in the broker's view, is that Woodside controls it and can use the balance sheet for funding.

Target is $21.20. Equal-weight rating retained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $21.20 Current Price is $20.90 Difference: $0.3
If WPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.07, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WPL as Buy (1) -

After an investor day update by Woodside Petroleum, Ord Minnett highlights the company now expects to be able to fund growth internally without the need for equity. This assumes stakes in Pluto Train 2 and Sangomar are sold.

The broker remains remain positive on the stock on the basis of its attractive valuation, improved benchmark pricing and its implications for the economics of growth.

The Buy rating is unchanged and the target is increased to $24 from $23.30.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $20.90 Difference: $3.1
If WPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.07, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WPL as Buy (1) -

Woodside Petroleum has set new targets to reduce emissions by 2050 at its investor day. The company targets -15% lower emissions by 2025 and -30% by 2030.

To do so, Woodside plans to design better energy efficiency into its capital projects going forward. UBS considers this a good starting point.

The company reaffirmed its plans to make a final investment decision (FID) on Scarborough gas and Pluto T2 in the second half. The broker fears FID may be deferred beyond 2021 due to Woodside's heavy capex load and limited LNG contracts.

The broker retains a $23.50 target and a Buy rating.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $20.90 Difference: $2.6
If WPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.07, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources