Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AJM as Underperform (5) -

Production beat Macquarie's forecasts in the March quarter, despite the impact of Cyclone Veronica and major plant works. Strength was driven by recovery, as weaker processed volumes were only partly offset by stronger process grades.

Despite cash flow strengthening over 2019, Macquarie expects a re-financing in 2020, given the heavy interest loading. Underperform rating and $0.11 target maintained.

Target price is $0.11 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: $0
If AJM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates ALQ as Sell (5) -

The company has divested its Chinese environmental and analytical testing business for US$57.3m. The business was relatively small and there was no platform for vertical integration.

Deutsche Bank suggests this divestments will enable capital to be more efficiently allocated to the food and pharmaceutical sectors. After adjusting for the divestment, the broker's forecasts for earnings per share decrease by -1%. Sell rating and $7.35 target.

Target price is $7.35 Current Price is $7.95 Difference: minus $0.6 (current price is over target).
If ALQ meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.28, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CIP as Hold (3) -

Leasing activity in the March quarter has reduced FY19 and FY20 lease expiries to 0.2% and 9.8% respectively. FY19 guidance is unchanged.

Morgans notes the company is one of the few listed A-REITs offering pure exposure to Australian industrial property, which is leveraged to the growing e-commerce/logistics segment.

Hold rating maintained. Target is raised to $2.77 from $2.73.

Target price is $2.77 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If CIP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COE as Outperform (1) -

March quarter production was in line with expectations and revenue beat Macquarie's estimates by 6%. FY19 production guidance is slightly lower, at 1.3 mmboe.

Macquarie envisages a number of catalysts over the remainder of 2019 that could mean the stock re-rates. This includes full de-risking of Sole and the drilling of exploration wells. Outperform and 60c target retained.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.07
If COE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates COL as Buy (1) -

Food and liquor sales grew 3.3% in the March quarter, ahead of Citi's forecasts. Fresh food inflation, online and stronger transactions drove growth.

The broker found positive underlying trends, with better transaction growth from large basket shoppers and the Fresh Stikeez program.

Citi maintains a Buy rating and $13.40 target.

Target price is $13.40 Current Price is $12.61 Difference: $0.79
If COL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.00, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates COL as Underperform (5) -

On a comparable basis, food sales increased 2.2% in the March quarter with a stronger contribution from fresh food inflation. Credit Suisse is not surprised that implied volume growth has been decelerating. The company has cited cost of goods pressures, which the broker believes are unlikely to have been fully passed on.

Credit Suisse suspects growth is a little weak heading into the fourth quarter and notes the company will be cycling its very successful Little Shop initiative in the first quarter of FY20. Underperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $10.81 from $10.84.

Target price is $10.81 Current Price is $12.61 Difference: minus $1.8 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.00, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates COL as Hold (3) -

Coles delivered a small improvement in like-for-like sales growth in the March quarter. The Stikeez promotional campaign provided a much smaller uplift than the Little Shop did previously.

Deutsche Bank suggests, in the absence of these incentives, sales for Coles are tracking well below cost growth. Hold rating and $12.50 target maintained.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $12.61 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.00, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COL as Neutral (3) -

Food and liquor comparables were slightly better than Macquarie expected in the March quarter. Convenience business remains challenging and the environment overall is difficult, the broker notes, with uncertainty regarding earnings and distributions because of cost inflation.

Neutral maintained. Target is raised to $12.23 from $12.19.

Target price is $12.23 Current Price is $12.61 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.00, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates COL as Equal-weight (3) -

Coles reported March quarter supermarket sales grew 2.4% on a like-for-like basis. Prices rose 0.9% because of higher tobacco and fresh food prices. Implied volume growth slowed to 1.5%. Morgan Stanley notes liquor sales growth remains weak.

The broker envisages modest earnings upgrades after this update. Equal-Weight retained. Industry view: Cautious. Target is $12.00.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $12.61 Difference: minus $0.61 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.00, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates COL as Hold (3) -

March quarter sales growth was slightly better than Morgans expected. Supermarkets increased sales by 3.2%, or 2.2% on a like-for-like basis. The latter was boosted by the Stikeez promotional program. Liquor sales rose 4.3%.

Express sales fell -32.4%, predominantly because of the changes to terms of the alliance agreement with Viva Energy ((VEA)). Morgans maintains a Hold rating and raises the target to $12.52 from $12.21.

Target price is $12.52 Current Price is $12.61 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.00, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COL as Lighten (4) -

March quarter sales were better than Ord Minnett expected. The broker points to a poor strategic position and lack of valuation support that underpin its Lighten rating.

Like-for-like sales for food remain weak on an underlying basis and the fourth quarter is expected to slow further. Ord Minnett raises the target to $11.25 from $11.00.

Target price is $11.25 Current Price is $12.61 Difference: minus $1.36 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.00, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COL as Sell (5) -

Coles's 3.3% year on year sales growth in the March Q was slightly ahead of expectation, driven by improving market growth, less promotional intensity and a return to fresh food inflation. However the outlook for the June Q is subdued, given a deceleration in sales growth to date and a need to invest further in labour, which will impact on margins.

The broker thus sees no need to alter its Sell recommendation and $11.30 target, citing the new CEO's focus on spending to improve competitiveness.

Target price is $11.30 Current Price is $12.61 Difference: minus $1.31 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.00, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CTX as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett reduces its 2019 estimates for earnings per share by -2%. Retail fuel margins have been weak in the year to date and the industry backdrop is now more challenged, in the broker's view.

Hold rating and $27.50 target maintained.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $27.18 Difference: $0.32
If CTX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.16, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DHG as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett expects continued weakness in new real estate listings until after the federal election on May 18. The broker reduces earnings estimates, now expecting declines of -16% in the second half of FY19.

Rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate and the target lowered to $3.15 from $3.25. Ord Minnett now expects Domain to generate $350.4m in revenue in FY19.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0.45
If DHG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.72, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FDV as Add (1) -

March quarter results exceeded Morgans expectations. Most of the surprise in revenue came from the Pakistan property operator, Zameen, which continues to expand its dominance of the high-end apartment market in the major cities.

The broker believes the company has created significant value since investing in most of its portfolio. Frontier Digital offers investors exposure to fast-growing online advertising and transaction marketplaces in emerging economies. The broker maintains an Add rating and $0.86 target.

Target price is $0.86 Current Price is $0.59 Difference: $0.27
If FDV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FLN as Neutral (3) -

Freelancer's share price shot up yesterday on a jump in headline revenue but the broker notes if one excludes FX and consulting revenue benefits, underlying revenue growth was actually negligible. Thus while momentum is accelerating, organic growth is lagging.

The broker acknowledges the potentially enormous opportunity in Enterprise but wants to see some monetisation before getting excited. Neutral and 70c target retained.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.83 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If FLN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates GPT as Hold (3) -

The company has reaffirmed FY19 guidance for growth of 4%. Deutsche Bank notes retail conditions are clearly moderating and office continues to outperform. Hold rating and $5.70 target maintained.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.75 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If GPT meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.71, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GPT as Neutral (3) -

GPT retained its 4% distribution growth guidance at its March Q update but it requires the office portfolio to continue to outperform, the broker notes, to offset declining occupancy in logistics and weakness in retail.

Target rises to $5.70 from $5.60, Neutral retained.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.75 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If GPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.71, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HUB as Underperform (5) -

March quarter flows were strong but margin pressure is compressing earnings growth going forward, Macquarie observes.

The broker continues to focus on where revenue fee margins are trending and what investment is needed in the cost base to service the assets under administration.

Macquarie reiterates an Underperform rating, and raises the target to $10.47 from $9.90 largely because of changes in the broker's risk-free rate calculation.

Target price is $10.47 Current Price is $15.00 Difference: minus $4.53 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.95, suggesting downside of -13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LVT as Buy (1) -

March quarter annualised recurring revenue grew 208% to $34.5m. Still, Citi points out winning large customers has a downside as, while they make material contributions to revenue, they have a longer sales cycle and take longer to close.

The broker expects the N3 sales force to hit its full stride in FY20 with an incremental contribution from the Wizdom acquisition and Hyperfish increasing prominence. The broker maintains a Buy rating and raises the target to $0.94 from $0.86.

Target price is $0.94 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: $0.43
If LVT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGX as Neutral (3) -

The company has completed the first shipment of high-grade iron ore from Koolan island. Macquarie upgrades earnings forecasts to reflect higher-grade products and better realised prices.

The target is raised to $1.10 from $0.90. The stock offers unique exposure to the high-grade iron ore market, and Macquarie believes there is significant upside to base case estimates under a spot price scenario. Neutral rating maintained.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If MGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MMM as Outperform (1) -

First quarter trading revealed the business is progressing towards breaking even on cash flow. Higher sales and working capital improvements were the key contributors, Macquarie observes. Marketing investment remains elevated but is expected to reduce in the second quarter.

Strengthening the balance sheet remains a key priority, Macquarie notes. Outperform rating maintained. Target is raised to $1.30 from $1.15.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.87
If MMM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 202% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates OGC as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

A very weak production outcome for Haile in the March quarter was offset by strong outcomes for Didipio and Macraes. 2019 guidance is unchanged.

The company has had exploration success at Martha with an underground target, defined as a potential 5-8mt at 4-6g/t gold for around 1.0-1.5m ounces.

Credit Suisse upgrades to Neutral from Underperform and maintains a $4.20 target.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: $0.22
If OGC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.85, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORI as Sell (5) -

The company expects to make significant write-downs at the first half results including non-cash impairments of -$191m. Utilisation rates at Burrup are expected to be lower than the prior guidance of 20% in FY19.

The outlook has been maintained and Citi estimates around $650m in first half underlying earnings. The broker expects any pullback in the stock is likely to be muted ahead of the first half results on May 9. Sell rating and $16 target maintained.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $18.60 Difference: minus $2.6 (current price is over target).
If ORI meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.69, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates ORI as Hold (3) -

The company has made a -$155m write-down to Burrup. Deutsche Bank considers the non-cash adjustments of -$191m to be a minor negative as these highlight the ongoing earnings risk associated with the commissioning of the plant.

Orica no longer expects Burrup to operate at 20% capacity in FY19, with the foregone -$12m in earnings to be offset by the additional business initiatives. The plant is now likely to be commissioned in the first half of FY20 with a positive earnings contribution from the second half.

This is later than Deutsche Bank anticipated. The possible upside comes from higher ammonium nitrate prices on the east coast of Australia and new contracts in Queensland. Hold rating and $17.20 target maintained.

Target price is $17.20 Current Price is $18.60 Difference: minus $1.4 (current price is over target).
If ORI meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.69, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORI as Neutral (3) -

The company will write down defective components of the Burrup plant, and utilisation in FY19 is expected to be lower than prior guidance of 20%. Macquarie currently assumes utilisation of 50% in FY20 and suspects consensus estimates are incorporating a greater contribution.

Orica expects to recognise -$191m in non-cash adjustments in the first half results as a result of the write-down. Macquarie maintains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $18.16 from $18.06.

Target price is $18.16 Current Price is $18.60 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If ORI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.69, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORI as Equal-weight (3) -

Orica has reduced the value of Burrup and expects to recognise a non-cash impact of -$155m in the first half. Rectification is in line with expectations and defective components will be replaced in the second half. The plant will be commissioned in the first half of FY20.

Importantly, Morgan Stanley notes management has retained its outlook which suggests prospects are improving elsewhere. Equal-weight. Target is $17.90. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $17.90 Current Price is $18.60 Difference: minus $0.7 (current price is over target).
If ORI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.69, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ORI as Hold (3) -

Morgans expects strong underlying earnings growth when the company reports its first half result on May 9. Nevertheless, the broker believes this will largely reflect a recovery from the problems of the prior year.

The company expects earnings to be skewed to the second half as a result of the timing of new contracts. With the exception of Burrup, Morgans expects a reiteration of the previous outlook.

Guidance for Burrup has been revised down again as the company now expects a lower utilisation rate in FY19. There will be additional sourcing and freight costs as a result, associated with meeting Western Australian customer requirements.

Morgans downgrades estimates for FY19 and FY20 by -4.0% and -7.1% respectively. Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $17.80 from $18.06.

Target price is $17.80 Current Price is $18.60 Difference: minus $0.8 (current price is over target).
If ORI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.69, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORI as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Orica is the world's leading supplier of mining explosives, UBS notes, and as such is late-stage leveraged to mining cycle recovery. But the ammonium nitrate market is over-supplied, restricting price growth despite explosives demand growth and hence that leverage is undermined.

The stock price is up 10% year to date to a point the broker considers is fairly discounting the outlook. Hence while lifting its target to $19.20 from $18.86, UBS pulls back to Neutral.

Target price is $19.20 Current Price is $18.60 Difference: $0.6
If ORI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.69, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Buy (1) -

Spodumene concentrate production in the March quarter was slightly ahead of Citi's estimates. Sales volumes were -20% lower than estimates because of Cyclone Veronica, which affected shipments.

Citi downwardly revises FY19 net profit estimates because of lower sales volumes and an additional build up in inventory in the system. Buy rating maintained with a $0.90 target.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.61 Difference: $0.29
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.90, suggesting upside of 47.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PLS as Outperform (1) -

March quarter production was soft but in line with revised guidance. Recovery has improved after the end of the quarter, to 65%, which Credit Suisse considers a positive and much-needed development.

The price of spodumene remains under pressure but management envisages limited downside from current levels and reports strong demand from off-take partners.

Outperform rating and $1.15 target maintained.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.61 Difference: $0.54
If PLS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 89% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.90, suggesting upside of 47.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as No Rating (-1) -

March quarter production was ahead of estimates, at 52,200t. Strength was driven by unreconciled recoveries of 63%. Macquarie lifts 2019 recovery assumptions.

The broker is advising hence is currently restricted from making a recommendation.

Current Price is $0.61. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $0.90, suggesting upside of 47.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PLS as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Ord Minnett notes recent improvements in recovery have been offset by delayed sales and higher cost guidance. Pilgangoora produced 52,000t, although sales were lower at 38,600t.

The project generated negative operating cash flow, despite $8.5m in payments falling into this quarter. Ord Minnett upgrades to Hold from Lighten, as the share price has fallen -30% from its peak in the last month. Target is reduced to $0.65 from $0.70.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.61 Difference: $0.04
If PLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.90, suggesting upside of 47.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates REA as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

Ord Minnett expects weakness in new real estate listings will continue until after the federal election on May 18. A decline of -10% is expected for second half earnings. Revenue of $909.3m is estimated for FY19.

The broker downgrades to Lighten from Hold and reduces the target to $74 from $76.

Target price is $74.00 Current Price is $80.11 Difference: minus $6.11 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $86.65, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SEK as Neutral (3) -

The company has invested in two new global online education businesses, taking a 50% stake in FutureLearn for $92m and a sub-5% stake in Coursera for $50m.

While small in the context of the company's business, the acquisitions underscore the company's intention to move towards online education, which is one of the three areas identified for early-stage investment.

Credit Suisse recognises the strong position of both these businesses in the global market and has valued the investments at the purchase price. Neutral rating and $19.25 target maintained.

Target price is $19.25 Current Price is $18.21 Difference: $1.04
If SEK meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.33, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SEK as Hold (3) -

The company has acquired stakes in two global online education providers, significantly expanding its global footprint. The service providers are FutureLearn and Coursera, acquired for a total consideration of $142m.

Morgans believes the value potential in the long run is substantial, leading to faster rates of revenue and earnings growth in the company's online education services. Hold rating and $20.24 target maintained.

Target price is $20.24 Current Price is $18.21 Difference: $2.03
If SEK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.33, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates SVW as Buy (1) -

The company has upgraded FY19 earnings (EBIT) guidance by 12% to $696m, implying growth of 40%. This is in line with Deutsche Bank's estimates. The company has pointed to resilient activity for WesTrac over the March quarter.

Coates Hire continues to be affected by projects being deferred, particularly in Queensland. Buy rating and $23.70 price target retained.

Target price is $23.70 Current Price is $19.65 Difference: $4.05
If SVW meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.41, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SVW as Buy (1) -

Seven Group has upgraded its FY19 earnings growth guidance to 40% from a prior 25%, more in line with the broker's forecast 38%, implying it had to happen eventually. WesTrac customer activity remains resilient despite a recent Caterpillar price hike and Energy is also solid. Coates Hire has been a little weak but has been impacted by wet weather in Qld.

The broker lifts its own forecast to 40% and target to $22.60 from $22.20, retaining Buy on two of the broker's most preferred investment themes: east coast infrastructure investment (Coates) and a return to west coast mine capex after a period of underinvestment (WesTrac).

Target price is $22.60 Current Price is $19.65 Difference: $2.95
If SVW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.41, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SYR as Outperform (1) -

First quarter production was pre-released. Macquarie notes production metrics at Balama are improving. Chinese graphite production is expected to increase after seasonal curtailments and this could lead to downward pressure on graphite prices, the broker suspects.

The company expects to release the findings of its commercialisation options in the current quarter. Outperform rating maintained. Target is $2.70.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $1.6
If SYR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 145% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.36, suggesting upside of 114.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SYR as Equal-weight (3) -

While finding value at current levels, Morgan Stanley continues to envisage heightened operating risk through the ramp up.

The business is taking longer to break even and the company expects US$43m in cash at the end of the second quarter, continuing to seek debt financing to strengthen the balance sheet.

Equal-weight rating maintained. Target is $1.25. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.15
If SYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.36, suggesting upside of 114.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SYR as Buy (1) -

Syrah Resources met its targeted production in the March Q but the run rate will need to lift, the broker notes, if FY production guidance is to be achieved. Realised pricing continues to be impacted by legacy contracts at lower levels than spot.

Syrah is thus in a tight cash flow position, with Balama taking longer to reach cash flow positive, and the BAM plant project progressing. Any issues that impact on cash flow cannot be tolerated, in the broker's view. Buy retained, target falls to $2.55 from $2.65.

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $1.45
If SYR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 132% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.36, suggesting upside of 114.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TCL as Sell (5) -

Citi finds it is none the wiser on the earnings outlook after the company's update. Capital releases and tax rates are largely unknown beyond FY20.

The company expects the majority of distributions to come from underlying operations, guiding to around 5% and 4% growth in FY19 and FY20 respectively.

Given the reliance on capital releases and a mild tax headwind, Citi suspects upgrades to distributions are becoming less likely. Sell rating and $10.14 target maintained.

Target price is $10.14 Current Price is $13.48 Difference: minus $3.34 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.68, suggesting downside of -5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates TCL as Buy (1) -

The company has provided a briefing on the short-to-medium-term opportunities and pointed to a number of disruptive market dynamics that are changing the way integrated transport networks function. These include smart mobility, road user charging and motor vehicle technology.

Deutsche Bank expects low bond yields will support Transurban over the short term. The broker retains a Buy rating and $13.25 target.

Target price is $13.25 Current Price is $13.48 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.68, suggesting downside of -5.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TCL as Neutral (3) -

At its investor briefing, Transurban reiterated a view that FY19 is a year of consolidating recent acquisitions. The company remains cautious about the Maryland opportunity but remains keen to grow its development pipeline.

Macquarie considers the valuation is becoming stretched, as the stock reflects the recent bond rally and management premium. Neutral rating and $13.27 target maintained.

Target price is $13.27 Current Price is $13.48 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.68, suggesting downside of -5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TCL as Equal-weight (3) -

After the company's update, Morgan Stanley highlights changes to the near-term growth pipeline and the longer-term upside from transport emission reductions.

Transurban has confirmed it will not participate in the initial stage of the Maryland project and instead look to domestic road network expansion. The company has also pointed out that the take up of zero emission vehicles could accelerate the fall in Australian government fuel excise.

Equal-weight rating and Cautious industry view maintained. Target is raised to $13.60 from $12.38.

Target price is $13.60 Current Price is $13.48 Difference: $0.12
If TCL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.68, suggesting downside of -5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TCL as Buy (1) -

Transurban's investor day reinforced the company's strategy to deliver on its record development pipeline of roads and tunnels worth $8bn over the next four years, which remain critical milestones, the broker suggests. Another $3-4bn of funding is still required but interest rates are heading the right way at present.

From the shareholder point of view, Transurban remains attractive for its yield and the broker saw nothing yesterday to upset this theme. Buy and $13.75 target retained.

Target price is $13.75 Current Price is $13.48 Difference: $0.27
If TCL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.68, suggesting downside of -5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VEA as Outperform (1) -

Refining utilisation and margins were better than Macquarie expected in March. Retail operating earnings (EBITDA) in the year to date are below expectations, attributed to both diesel and petrol weakness.

Macquarie believes the potential for higher volumes and control of fuel board prices will more than offset this weakness over the remainder of 2019. Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $3.15 from $3.25.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.94
If VEA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.64, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VEA as Equal-weight (3) -

The company has announced a downgrade to retail fuel guidance of around -10% for 2019. Morgan Stanley had expected Viva Energy would be a little more protected in this regard, given the new deal with Coles and it suggests retail margins have not improved in April.

Refining margins were better in March but remain significantly below those realised by Caltex ((CTX)), the broker adds. Equal-weight rating. Target is $2.30. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.09
If VEA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.64, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VEA as Add (1) -

The company reported an improved gross refining margin in March of US$6.50 a barrel. Crude intake was also higher in March. Morgans notes the rise in oil prices has hurt retail fuel margins.

The broker trims 2019 refining estimates on a combination of higher assumed energy costs and a lower first half refining margin.

Morgans envisages smaller incremental gains for the company following the re-cutting of the Coles ((COL)) alliance, which provided the majority of gains in the March quarter. Add rating maintained. Target reduced to $2.57 from $2.70.

Target price is $2.57 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.36
If VEA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.64, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VEA as Accumulate (2) -

The company obtained a refining margin of US$6.50/bbl in March, ahead of January and February. Contracting retail fuel margins, as a result of rising oil prices, have negatively impacted first half earnings.

Ord Minnett reduces 2019 and 2020 estimates for earnings per share by -5% and -4% respectively. The broker maintains an Accumulate rating and $2.60 target.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.39
If VEA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.64, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VEA as Buy (1) -

Viva Energy's update highlighted improving refiner margins offset by weaker retail margins, underscoring the company's exposure to oil price volatility under the new Coles ((COL)) deal, the broker suggests. The broker cuts FY19 earnings forecasts by -7%. Target falls to $2.65 from $2.70.

Buy retained on an expected recovery in refiner margins following cost-outs, and a strong balance sheet providing for further M&A and/or capital management.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.44
If VEA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.64, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WSA as Buy (1) -

March quarter production was in line with expectations. In applying new nickel price forecasts, Citi slightly lifts estimates for 2019 and 2020.

The broker maintains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $2.35 from $2.40.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $0.09
If WSA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.66, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WSA as Outperform (1) -

Production in the March quarter was in line with expectations and costs were lower. Initial drilling at Spotted Quoll for resource extension is progressing.

Scoping studies are being done at New Morning and pre-development at Odysseus is continuing. Credit Suisse maintains an Outperform rating and $2.65 target.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $0.39
If WSA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.66, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WSA as Outperform (1) -

March quarter results were slightly better than expected. Development work at Cosmos is on track. Macquarie finds the stability and consistency of production from Flying Fox and Spotted Quoll a core strength of the company.

While the reserve life is now under four years, the broker envisages potential for additional extensions. Outperform rating maintained. Target rises to $2.80 from $2.70.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $0.54
If WSA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.66, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WSA as Equal-weight (3) -

Production was in line with expectations in the March quarter, as higher grades help reduce costs. Morgan Stanley notes Odysseus is on track and dewatering has progressed to the underground decline.

A reserve estimate for the AM5 and AM6 deposits is expected in the second half, providing potential for mine upside. The broker maintains an Equal-weight rating. Industry view is Attractive. Target is $2.20.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If WSA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.66, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WSA as Buy (1) -

March quarter production was solid, higher than Ord Minnett expected amid improved cash costs. The broker believes that Western Areas is well-positioned to meet guidance.

Operating improvements have been further enhanced by a 20% lift in realised prices. The broker believes the business provides strong leverage to an improving nickel market and a Speculative Buy rating is maintained. Target price is $3.10.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $0.84
If WSA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.66, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WSA as Neutral (3) -

It was another consistent quarter from Western Areas, with production beating the broker by 1% and costs by -8%. Yet as a high-cost producer, the company remains highly leveraged to the nickel price and is generating minimal cash flow at current spot. As to whether the Odysseus project can be funded from cash flow thus depends on the nickel price trajectory.

The broker is bullish on the nickel price on the EV demand theme, but for now retains Neutral and a $2.40 target.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $0.14
If WSA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.66, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates Z1P as Add (1) -

Morgans was impressed by the March quarter growth and further evidence of improved leverage. The broker lifts net profit estimates by 20%, incorporating higher operating leverage and lower bad debt assumptions.

Potential catalysts include the signing of large merchants, execution of a new lower-cost debt facility and further de-risking as the business moves closer to profitability. Add rating maintained. Target rises to $3.19 from $1.89.

Target price is $3.19 Current Price is $3.07 Difference: $0.12
If Z1P meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources